>There’s no way bots are under 5% lmao
>
>C’mon just use the platform for a week and you will realize that by yourself
I suspect botting is an issue on Reddit as well. Not necessarily comment-bots, which do happen, but upvote or downvote bots.
I’m sure the number is higher than 5% but you also have to keep in mind that most real people with a Twitter account either don’t post at all and just follow other accounts, or post very rarely. Of course you’re going to think 80% of users are bots because they’re posting non-stop and have a huge reach and exposure because of it.
A lot of people on twitter just watch from the sidelines. Twitter is a toxic cesspool, and you don’t want to jump into that arena. Actually tweeting is risky af, you could say something simple like “I like ice cream”, and somebody will try to cancel you because “eating dairy products means that you support horrible animal conditions, don’t support climate change, and you want to burn the Amazon for more cattle grazing land”, like, no, I just like ice cream
Yes, but Twitter’s SEC filings specifically state that they are talking about “active daily users” in regards to that 5% number… which, to me, makes the lie a that much more egregious and obvious.
This is true, absolutely.
I believe Twitter uses their ‘daily active users’ as a metric to base how much money they charge to advertisers.
So if a big chunk of ‘DAU’ are bots, their system is bs.
No… they… don’t..
Advertising departments or companies use what’s called conversion rates. They also show comparisons between money spent and returns for that money spent between all the platforms.
It’s amazing how easily this guy can lead so many people around by their noses..
Exactly right. People don’t think. If advertisers weren’t getting a return on investment vs the alternative they would stop. Obviously, there is some value in Twitter and social media.
Conversion rates would be impressions/click-thru, or click/purchase. This would the. be used to compare to your ad spend to show your ROI
Nothing to do with how much a platform charges
Oh yeah, the number is high and Twitter knows it. Could be a shockingly high percentage for all I know, it’s just impossible to know from a users standpoint because most of these bots are operating on such a ridiculous post schedule that it’s skewing the experience. You can click on any random bot and they’ll have thousands of tweets and the oldest one is a week old
The more either party presses for or refuses to pay the money, the more dirt will come out and ruin the companies value further. Good for Bezos if he wants to buy at discount. Bad for Twitter either way.
So, I still want more clarity on how they're defining an account as a bot. From the article, it sounds like their "audit" was just messaging a random sampling of accounts, and if they didn't respond, they're a "bot". And to be honest, if a stranger sent me an unsolicited message on social media, there's a good chance I'd ignore it, too. So much spam, scam, and malware out there, that I would assume for most people, over half the unsolicited communications they receive from unknown entities fall into those categories.
I don't doubt there are bots out there. Troll farms used by groups with a political agenda to favor certain people/posts. Or just sell to the highest bidder farms out there that can be used to promote the reach of your post. But I also think there's an agenda behind claiming half of Biden's followers are bots, and a critical look at how they reached that conclusion would reveal that it's not particularly credible, but rather reaching the conclusion they were paid to reach.
Political botting is profitable AF if you know what you are doing. I'm pretty much of the opinion that 90% of the active engagement we see from political discourse is instigated by bot farms.
Fair enough. It could be true that everyone is a bot on Twitter but looking at Elon Musk and Biden as an example can’t be rigorous science. I mean I have a Twitter account and I don’t follow either of them, but I bet every bot in existence is following them since they’re among the most engaged-with accounts
I mean use reddit for a week on subs like this or antiwork or supersqueeze etc and you probably would get at least half the same comments and posts pointing to a large number of bots/fake accounts
It's a bit like reddit, but imagine all of these comments smashed together randomly on one flat page, and imagine trying to follow the conversations. It's maddening.
It's not 5% of all accounts, it's 5% of monetizable accounts which is some internal Twitter metric.
Twitter says this is human verified by taking a large random sample and going through them one by one.
But what is the treshhold of being a bot? Is voting for biden enough? What about scheduling posts in advance or using automation software? What if you got the 4th booster but don't support ukraine?
you can't think of it in binary terms of bots vs non bots. That's sophomoric.
It's Malicious, vs Non Malicious bots -- look at Walter Bloomberg -- that's a script that pulls Reuters headlines into twitter -- it's followed by a lot of people and it's really useful, it's not malicious in any way...however, it's not really monetizable.
So you have Malicious vs Non Malicious
then under that Monetizable vs non monetizable.
From elon's frame of reference, it would seem the bots are way more than they are. That's because he is a famous blue tick who is TARGETED by the bots.
For a normal real user who just follows sports or such things, bots are not as many. Certainly this is my experience.
Problem is the blue ticks have the biggest voice in this conversation, and just like Elon, they are also bot targets.
But blue ticks make up like 1% of Twitter.
That's why I think Twitter is right. The bots could be less than 5%, but they target the loudest users.
Totally.
In fact, it would be impossibrew to make an unbiased search unless you have access to the userbase without being influenced by the search algorithm.
They are talking about 5% of MAU (monthly active users), not entire user base. There are lots of “sleeping” bots and owners only wake up them when needed, so they mostly aren’t part of MAU.
There are a lot of inactive and viewer accounts. Not that many people actively tweet. Also there are a little over 330M active Twitter users. 5% is a lot of accounts, and they can be very noisy
Oh the classic "Don't look here as I manufacture reasons to cash out of Tesla because that shit about to crash harder than a FSD model S driving into a firetruck."
I mean, this is the same guy that claimed he had funding secured just to keep people from mass quitting while he got enough deliverables to save the company. Elon's playing 4D chess for sure. But yeah Tesla is doomed. Notice we don't have cybertruks yet.
4D chess? My dude we all saw him take the pieces out and shit on the board. The only people thinking he’s making brilliant moves are his weirdo cult followers.
Tesla has continually outperformed expectations quarter-after-quarter and anonymous redditors think that they know better. It's irrational to the point of mental illness.
The company has a top 10 market cap but sells less cars than almost any other brand. Their self driving tech is ahead of competitors but "full" self driving is always "next year", while their competitors are catching up rapidly. Their cars are consistently rated low in reliability. Battery tech is still good, but not enough to continue to outpace competition.
It sells cars and some green tech. It doesn't have the diversification or reach that Apple, Google, or other highly valued companies have.
The company doesn't deserve the valuation it has now.
Anecdotal, but in Phoenix I didn't see many Teslas before. If I actually saw one it was like a unicorn. In the past few years I've seen quite a few on the streets. Yes, even conservatives buy Teslas.
More like so he could dump billions of dollars worth of insanely valued Tesla shares without crashing the price. Tesla shares are still holding relatively strong compared to the rest of the tech and growth market which have seen insane price drops.
I agree with the suspicion it was so he could cash out some major Tesla stock options since the quality problems and recalls are bound to pull down the stock eventually. He is also a huge troll
not really, the theory is that due to certain SEC rulings Dorsey and/or Agrawal told him that he had two options: buy them out as to make it impossible for them to enforce the due diligence (and avoid the financial fallout of the other option),or get banned. which no one wants to do, but if the feds are knocking you got to answer. he is just realizing that the classic "humanitarian enterprise" angle is impossible, people have vested too much hope (I had a coworker who wouldn't shut up about trump returning) and his unnecessary sponsors being far from savory ,such as Peter theil and Saudi Arabia, as investors, it is not simply about woke scolds or morals. it now is a deal that has to get approval from the federal goernment due to the involvement of said Gulf States
he simply got bored and his Aspergers is acting up.
Exactly this. The moment he agreed to the deal, which he only did to be edgy and cool, he started looking for ways out and making up some bullshit number on the bot % is his way of trying to save face. If they take him to court, they’ll get their $1 billion.
I wish I could legitimately threaten to buy a huge company for billions of dollars when I'm trying to be edgy and cool... instead I just impulse buy gay looking sunglasses that I never wear.
Counterpoint:
-They say it’s an estimate
-They say the estimate might be wrong
-If the estimate turns out to be wrong then they were right when they said “our estimate could be wrong”
-Being wrong about your estimate of fake accounts is not fraud
-To be fraud you would have to prove they knew the fake accounts were a higher percentage and chose to lie about it
-Not every fake account is considered an mDAU
-Musk said he wanted to buy Twitter because there was a problem with fake accounts and he planned to fix it and make Twitter better by eliminating all the bots
-The fake account problem can’t be your investment thesis and also your reason to walk
-he could have asked about the fake accounts before signing the merger agreement
-Elon musk says things that aren’t true all the time but no one accuses him of committing fraud (well, maybe some people do I don’t know)
-why is it more important to be right about fake accounts than it is to be timely/truthful on your 13d/G forms?
-Why is it a problem if Twitter incorrectly estimated their fake accounts but not a problem if Elon tweets a poop emoji in response to the CEO’s explanation of how they analyze fake accounts despite a contractual agreement not to disparage management?
Counter point to my counter points:
-why doesn’t Twitter just open the kimono on their process and scrub any personal info?
I work in banking this is correct. Elon is fighting in order to be able to walk away at all (paying $1 billion is getting off light, even though it’s a high break up fee relative to deal size).
In other words the deal is pretty much dead and likely a legal mess in courts in the future
Because I highly doubt Twitter will be interested in renegotiation if he walks away and they may even sue him for NDA violations and other damages
No that fraud argument wouldn't work. I'm a lawyer who has negotiated many of these kinds of contracts. The contract Elon signed would have provisions specifically disclaiming Elon's right to rely on any public information of the company.
Op is an idiot. Literally just says out loud whatever head thoughts come to him.
Thank you… for fucks sake… I joke around and call people retards on WSB, but I didn’t realize almost everyone here has a double digit IQ.
There hasn’t been a single thing Musk has said that hasn’t been magnified and treated like absolute truth by fanbois and conservatives alike..
It’s incredible.. and really fucking sad.
I would love to know from someone with a better understanding the rules surrounding insider trading whether Elon could have collared his Twitter stock at some point after he disclosed the acquisition publicly? Could he have locked in a $1B+ gain to get a free look at the company? Would that be legal? Just looking for someone who can provide an answer and point to relevant case law so I can read about it... Thanks in advance...
Nah, that would be a clear case of stock market manipulation. Here’s the presentation directly from the sec addressing the definition and examples: https://www.sec.gov/files/Market%20Manipulations%20and%20Case%20Studies.pdf
I loaded them today and they will be green as yard grass here very soon once twitter gets ran up in by the SEC for fraud... (who am I kidding, the SEC won’t do shit), but my puts will print non the less.
This could be a very real reason why Twitter is not technically lying.
There are probably billions of Twitter accounts (including my own) which are juat abandoned and have not posted a thing for 5+ years. If let's say Twitter's accounts are:
- 5% Active bots
- 20% Active users
- 75% Long-abandoned inactive accounts
Then it would be true that only 5% of its total users were bots - even if everyone *feels* that "bots are everywhere" because the % of bots is *really* 20% once all the inactive, abandoned or seldom-used accounts that never post are excluded.
I have not heard this theory but it makes as much sense as anything else. On one hand I do think he would have gone through with the deal if the market continued to skyrocket. The correction has everyone spooked and in light of it he is clearly overpaying. Thanks for the comment. I am going to think more about it.
Money this, Tesla that, he’s trying to acquire Twitter for ideological purposes.
“It’s not about the money, it’s about sending a message”
— that dude who wears makeup or something
It’s hilarious how many Twitter bots there are, and how easy it is to get them active.
I keep forgetting “sugar” is a bot keyword. I’ll reply to a post about a smoothie, for example, mention sugar, and I’ll get at least 20 bots replying lol.
He says he can’t say he’s not glad twitter is going to hell - why can’t he say that, you may ask? I don’t know, perhaps he has something stuck in his throat and can’t speak. Or maybe because he is glad twitter is going to hell so it would be a lie and he can’t say lies
Is that case of double negative even incorrect in English? Sounds perfectly logical to me.
A) he was never going to buy it
B) his methodology was put out on the internet and is rather crappy, he had a very inadequate definition of spam/bot where as Twitter defined what they mean quite well
C) he will pay them the breakup fee OR Parag makes a public announcement preempting any battle over the breakup fee by announcing the two parties agree to break-up amicably and waive any claim or counterclaim to the fee
Personally, I'd stick around lol. The memes have to be legendary! Plus, you can hope that Elon will move the HQ out of that hell hole known as San Francisco.
They just go to court when he states fraud and therefore doesn't have to pay, twitter will want to fight but won't because somewhere some engineer at some point was emailing someone in exec suites that the spam number was such and such and much more then 5%. Hell everyone KNOWS it's more then 5%, you can buy a million followers of you want! Discovery could find that, and if it did Twitter would implode from share holder class action suits. E.g. Elon needs to pay a billion, he can spend another 100 mill taking Twitter to court for what a 50/50 chance of paying nothing. Twitter risks a complete company implosion if they loose as the class action lawsuit from shareholders and potential criminal charges for fraud
Elon is not going to pay them a billion without a fight, or at a minimum playing chicken
I know engineers that have DAT files of every email they have ever gotten or sent for thier entire careers. The engineering profession has quite a few OCD type personalities...
Fair point, then again I'm certain the places some of the engineers I know worked at before would be upset if they knew he had every email from that job long after leaving
So much for rules lol
"I'll buy Twitter to fix the bot and spam problem! Also free speech!"
"Woah woah woah there's bots and spam on this platform I don't want it! Plus some people used their free speech at twitter and I don't like it!"
Bagholder spotted.
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The problem ALOT of people is missing is that these bot accounts are used to manipulate stock prices believe it or not. If there is accounts that say have 1 million followers and even 20% are bots talking shit about XYZ company, it puts pressure on a company’s stock price. This is how these hedge trolls are cellar boxing companies by flooding message boards and social media blasting targeted companies while they sell unlimited counterfeit stock and NOTHING IS DONE ABOUT IT... What I think Elon has done is brought this issue into the light and now the SEC will have to investigate this issue (because twitters disclosures to the SEC is obviously bullshit) and it gives him leverage if they are in fact investigating him for his buy ins.... theres so much Fuckery going on, who knows what to think, but I know one thing for sure, if twitter filed fraudulent SEC filings, they are fucked by not only the SEC but by their own shareholders because everything is based on those bogus ass numbers and hell will reign down on some people’s asses heavily IMVHO.... either way, I can’t wait to see how this shit show turns out....
If we learn that Twitter had information that the 5% bot estimate was actually wrong their safe harbor language would no longer protect them. At the very least the company will be bombarded by shareholder lawsuits. They might even face lawsuits from advertisers who believe they were defrauded. If the civil litigation uncovers real fraud the SEC will get involved.
I always trust r/wsb to upvote stupid takes. Dude probably didn’t spend a second reading the merger agreement nor does he understand that Twitter is entitled to specific performance under the merger agreement. Elon can’t just walk away. Twitter would be trading much lower if that were the case.
A lot of people also confusing difference between users v mDAU. Twitter says bots constitute less than 5% of mDAUs, not users. They also caveat this by saying that this is a rough estimate.
When we are done talking about Twitter bots, can we get to the porn on Facebook.
Getting crazy how I get tagged on some porn post of Facebook, every single day
> Twitter is very concerned about members of its engineering team talking to the media. So concerned they just released this warning to employees:
That’s extraordinarily standard. I’ve gotten the same kind of warning for what any reasonable person would consider a very boring media event. Nothing should be read into that.
Bruh this sub just went full r/conspiracy with the project veritas bullshit
Who gives a flying fuck about whether or not musk pays a penalty for backing out of the deal he initiated? Sounds like it was all a publicity stunt anyway.
Your a moron if you think musk is actually trying to back out because the number of bots is higher then he originally thought. The reason hes trying to back out is because tech stock prices are down 30%+ from when he signed this deal. Also lol at taking Elon Musks word that bot numbers are 4x higher this is the only guy in history that has pretended to take a massive public company private as a joke.
Ironically, you are making the same point I was trying to make. The bot issue is just the excuse. The market is the issue. Did you read my post? I propose we give each other a little grace. I'll assume the best of you and I'd hope you'd assume the best of me.
Fuck Elon Musk & all his lil fan boys. He KNEW how bad the bots were before this. If you use Twitter, you know how many bots it has. Hope he ends up paying Twitter more then a billion
He is using the bot situation as an excuse to get out of the deal. The market correction has Elon and everyone else spooked. In light of the decline in value of peer companies his offer is WAY too high at this point.
So he offers to buy twitter and get rid of bots, and then complains that there are too many bots. Good fucking luck with that reasoning being the basis for backing out lmao
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Can I get a $1 Billion Breakup Fee from my ex
Is your ex Jeffy Bezo?
No it’s Jef Peso.
Best we can do is a Frosty and some cheese fries.
Can the transaction take place behind the dumpster?
Oh, so you're interested in the Biggie Bag!
A billion ruble?
A billion LUNA
That's like 1.5× my "make up" fee...I'm in Edit: this led me to buy a PUT.. wish I would've grabbed more...
Juan Pezos
A billion pesos.
I dated Jeffe Peso. Any relation?
That’s Jefe’
LMAO
[удалено]
Many of these links are to OP's personal accounts
Is OP one of those paid Twitter bots? That post history is atrocious?
Yeah, wtf. It's like that other company called 'snowflake'. What is with these names.
At least snowflake is a pretty awesome product
Is that the Colombian/Peruvian variety?
Snowflake is a technical term from the data warehousing space so the word makes sense to the company’s target demographic
well.. I thought it was clever
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There’s no way bots are under 5% lmao C’mon just use the platform for a week and you will realize that by yourself
>There’s no way bots are under 5% lmao > >C’mon just use the platform for a week and you will realize that by yourself I suspect botting is an issue on Reddit as well. Not necessarily comment-bots, which do happen, but upvote or downvote bots.
Mods will astroturf threads too
Absolutely
I’m sure the number is higher than 5% but you also have to keep in mind that most real people with a Twitter account either don’t post at all and just follow other accounts, or post very rarely. Of course you’re going to think 80% of users are bots because they’re posting non-stop and have a huge reach and exposure because of it.
A lot of people on twitter just watch from the sidelines. Twitter is a toxic cesspool, and you don’t want to jump into that arena. Actually tweeting is risky af, you could say something simple like “I like ice cream”, and somebody will try to cancel you because “eating dairy products means that you support horrible animal conditions, don’t support climate change, and you want to burn the Amazon for more cattle grazing land”, like, no, I just like ice cream
So only “simple” people like ice cream huh? Who do you think you are…?
Let’s cancel the sob
O this is literally the r/austria sub in reddit. Trust me, you are never right there.
Comment of the Day. In fact, take my award. ;)
mine, too
Yes, but Twitter’s SEC filings specifically state that they are talking about “active daily users” in regards to that 5% number… which, to me, makes the lie a that much more egregious and obvious.
This is true, absolutely. I believe Twitter uses their ‘daily active users’ as a metric to base how much money they charge to advertisers. So if a big chunk of ‘DAU’ are bots, their system is bs.
No… they… don’t.. Advertising departments or companies use what’s called conversion rates. They also show comparisons between money spent and returns for that money spent between all the platforms. It’s amazing how easily this guy can lead so many people around by their noses..
You don't pay on conversion, you pay on impression. Source: I fucking run the digital marketing at my company.
Nonetheless, if ads don’t convert, advertisers move elsewhere..
Exactly right. People don’t think. If advertisers weren’t getting a return on investment vs the alternative they would stop. Obviously, there is some value in Twitter and social media.
So false. Plenty of advertisers spend with no conversion tracking in place
Conversion rates would be impressions/click-thru, or click/purchase. This would the. be used to compare to your ad spend to show your ROI Nothing to do with how much a platform charges
Oh yeah, the number is high and Twitter knows it. Could be a shockingly high percentage for all I know, it’s just impossible to know from a users standpoint because most of these bots are operating on such a ridiculous post schedule that it’s skewing the experience. You can click on any random bot and they’ll have thousands of tweets and the oldest one is a week old
The more either party presses for or refuses to pay the money, the more dirt will come out and ruin the companies value further. Good for Bezos if he wants to buy at discount. Bad for Twitter either way.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/17/half-of-joe-bidens-twitter-followers-are-fake-audit-reveals/
So, I still want more clarity on how they're defining an account as a bot. From the article, it sounds like their "audit" was just messaging a random sampling of accounts, and if they didn't respond, they're a "bot". And to be honest, if a stranger sent me an unsolicited message on social media, there's a good chance I'd ignore it, too. So much spam, scam, and malware out there, that I would assume for most people, over half the unsolicited communications they receive from unknown entities fall into those categories. I don't doubt there are bots out there. Troll farms used by groups with a political agenda to favor certain people/posts. Or just sell to the highest bidder farms out there that can be used to promote the reach of your post. But I also think there's an agenda behind claiming half of Biden's followers are bots, and a critical look at how they reached that conclusion would reveal that it's not particularly credible, but rather reaching the conclusion they were paid to reach.
Political botting is profitable AF if you know what you are doing. I'm pretty much of the opinion that 90% of the active engagement we see from political discourse is instigated by bot farms.
Fair enough. It could be true that everyone is a bot on Twitter but looking at Elon Musk and Biden as an example can’t be rigorous science. I mean I have a Twitter account and I don’t follow either of them, but I bet every bot in existence is following them since they’re among the most engaged-with accounts
I mean use reddit for a week on subs like this or antiwork or supersqueeze etc and you probably would get at least half the same comments and posts pointing to a large number of bots/fake accounts
I know a good deal of people and none of them use Twitter
Same
I've used it 3 times maybe and it was to get a coupon for a different website. I'm still not entirely sure how Twitter even works.
It's a bit like reddit, but imagine all of these comments smashed together randomly on one flat page, and imagine trying to follow the conversations. It's maddening.
It's not 5% of all accounts, it's 5% of monetizable accounts which is some internal Twitter metric. Twitter says this is human verified by taking a large random sample and going through them one by one.
I heard the “large random sample” was only 100 people, but maybe that was for a different metric
That was Musks number for a sample his team was gonna take
They stated many thousands.
Definition of bots is ….
Just check a sample of 100 users bro
Just because they post more and make a bunch of noise doesn’t mean there’s more than 5%
Obviously true and not responsive to anyone's claim? Want to randomly tell us the twitter logo is based off a real bird too?
100% Agree!
Doesn't matter, he'd buy at 52.40 with bots in a bull market but why pay a premium if the market is crashing?
I bet that’s right. But that small % is loud AF. When you go to the parts of twitter that are not toxic cesspools there are zero bots
But what is the treshhold of being a bot? Is voting for biden enough? What about scheduling posts in advance or using automation software? What if you got the 4th booster but don't support ukraine?
There’s just a high % of people that act like bots. Or trained seals.
you can't think of it in binary terms of bots vs non bots. That's sophomoric. It's Malicious, vs Non Malicious bots -- look at Walter Bloomberg -- that's a script that pulls Reuters headlines into twitter -- it's followed by a lot of people and it's really useful, it's not malicious in any way...however, it's not really monetizable. So you have Malicious vs Non Malicious then under that Monetizable vs non monetizable.
One of Elon’s reasons for buying the platform was to get rid of the bots or “die trying,” now bots are a problem for the deal?
From elon's frame of reference, it would seem the bots are way more than they are. That's because he is a famous blue tick who is TARGETED by the bots. For a normal real user who just follows sports or such things, bots are not as many. Certainly this is my experience. Problem is the blue ticks have the biggest voice in this conversation, and just like Elon, they are also bot targets. But blue ticks make up like 1% of Twitter. That's why I think Twitter is right. The bots could be less than 5%, but they target the loudest users.
But he has 90 million followers. If his followers are 30% bots and Twitter has 280 million users in total you can do the math.
Totally. In fact, it would be impossibrew to make an unbiased search unless you have access to the userbase without being influenced by the search algorithm.
50% is closer to reality Literally every big social media platform is full of junk accounts
They are talking about 5% of MAU (monthly active users), not entire user base. There are lots of “sleeping” bots and owners only wake up them when needed, so they mostly aren’t part of MAU.
There are a lot of inactive and viewer accounts. Not that many people actively tweet. Also there are a little over 330M active Twitter users. 5% is a lot of accounts, and they can be very noisy
He was never going to buy it
he was probably doing some blow when he clicked the buy with one click button.
Distraction?
Oh the classic "Don't look here as I manufacture reasons to cash out of Tesla because that shit about to crash harder than a FSD model S driving into a firetruck."
RemindMe! 5 years
I mean, this is the same guy that claimed he had funding secured just to keep people from mass quitting while he got enough deliverables to save the company. Elon's playing 4D chess for sure. But yeah Tesla is doomed. Notice we don't have cybertruks yet.
Hardly 4d chess when everyone literally knows what he is doing aside from sub reddits devoted to oral of his shoes.
4D chess? My dude we all saw him take the pieces out and shit on the board. The only people thinking he’s making brilliant moves are his weirdo cult followers.
And they're going to get fleeced eventually. Possibly now.
I'm really curious how Tesla is doomed when it is generating this much profit each quarter: https://i.imgur.com/iOxyDkG.png
shhhh. no facts pls
4D Chess = SEC won’t do a damn thing
Have you been to a Tesla dealership? They can’t sell their cars fast enough. People saying Tesla’s going to die are crazy.
Tesla has continually outperformed expectations quarter-after-quarter and anonymous redditors think that they know better. It's irrational to the point of mental illness.
The company has a top 10 market cap but sells less cars than almost any other brand. Their self driving tech is ahead of competitors but "full" self driving is always "next year", while their competitors are catching up rapidly. Their cars are consistently rated low in reliability. Battery tech is still good, but not enough to continue to outpace competition. It sells cars and some green tech. It doesn't have the diversification or reach that Apple, Google, or other highly valued companies have. The company doesn't deserve the valuation it has now.
Market capitalization is a function of irrational markets and is not indicative of a businesses value.
Anecdotal, but in Phoenix I didn't see many Teslas before. If I actually saw one it was like a unicorn. In the past few years I've seen quite a few on the streets. Yes, even conservatives buy Teslas.
Have you been to any dealership? Friend spent 3 months waiting for order from GM.
Can confirm. My local Tesla dealer turns over a few dozens of not hundreds a week. It's a revolving door of car carriers.
Attention and drama for the narcissism
If we got rid of all the narcissists in the tech world, there would be no tech world.
4D Chess....Misdirection.
4 DD, Miss Direction
4 DDD Miss Erection
Missed Erection
manipulation.
More like so he could dump billions of dollars worth of insanely valued Tesla shares without crashing the price. Tesla shares are still holding relatively strong compared to the rest of the tech and growth market which have seen insane price drops.
Bingo!
I 100% think so, but from what is the question. Have to dig deep for that
I agree with the suspicion it was so he could cash out some major Tesla stock options since the quality problems and recalls are bound to pull down the stock eventually. He is also a huge troll
I had been thinking the same thing. It was literally everywhere.
He is not the person people think he is, he's not your friend.
He's not your buddy, guy.
He's not your guy, buddy
not really, the theory is that due to certain SEC rulings Dorsey and/or Agrawal told him that he had two options: buy them out as to make it impossible for them to enforce the due diligence (and avoid the financial fallout of the other option),or get banned. which no one wants to do, but if the feds are knocking you got to answer. he is just realizing that the classic "humanitarian enterprise" angle is impossible, people have vested too much hope (I had a coworker who wouldn't shut up about trump returning) and his unnecessary sponsors being far from savory ,such as Peter theil and Saudi Arabia, as investors, it is not simply about woke scolds or morals. it now is a deal that has to get approval from the federal goernment due to the involvement of said Gulf States he simply got bored and his Aspergers is acting up.
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Maybe he wants to sue them and having the due diligence clause would make that really hard.
Exactly this. The moment he agreed to the deal, which he only did to be edgy and cool, he started looking for ways out and making up some bullshit number on the bot % is his way of trying to save face. If they take him to court, they’ll get their $1 billion.
I wish I could legitimately threaten to buy a huge company for billions of dollars when I'm trying to be edgy and cool... instead I just impulse buy gay looking sunglasses that I never wear.
I hope they do, he's such a tool. Regardless of whether or not people like him, doesn't change the fact that he's a tool
To what end? What does he get out of the hype over buying Twitter only to have the plan of bailing?
good...let this story and twitter die together.
If we can have this sites Elon fetish die too, than I vote yes. Dude is a scumbag and a conman, and people here treat him like some genius inventor.
Amen
Counterpoint: -They say it’s an estimate -They say the estimate might be wrong -If the estimate turns out to be wrong then they were right when they said “our estimate could be wrong” -Being wrong about your estimate of fake accounts is not fraud -To be fraud you would have to prove they knew the fake accounts were a higher percentage and chose to lie about it -Not every fake account is considered an mDAU -Musk said he wanted to buy Twitter because there was a problem with fake accounts and he planned to fix it and make Twitter better by eliminating all the bots -The fake account problem can’t be your investment thesis and also your reason to walk -he could have asked about the fake accounts before signing the merger agreement -Elon musk says things that aren’t true all the time but no one accuses him of committing fraud (well, maybe some people do I don’t know) -why is it more important to be right about fake accounts than it is to be timely/truthful on your 13d/G forms? -Why is it a problem if Twitter incorrectly estimated their fake accounts but not a problem if Elon tweets a poop emoji in response to the CEO’s explanation of how they analyze fake accounts despite a contractual agreement not to disparage management? Counter point to my counter points: -why doesn’t Twitter just open the kimono on their process and scrub any personal info?
I work in banking this is correct. Elon is fighting in order to be able to walk away at all (paying $1 billion is getting off light, even though it’s a high break up fee relative to deal size).
In other words the deal is pretty much dead and likely a legal mess in courts in the future Because I highly doubt Twitter will be interested in renegotiation if he walks away and they may even sue him for NDA violations and other damages
Basically all this. OP has no idea what he's talking about.
No that fraud argument wouldn't work. I'm a lawyer who has negotiated many of these kinds of contracts. The contract Elon signed would have provisions specifically disclaiming Elon's right to rely on any public information of the company. Op is an idiot. Literally just says out loud whatever head thoughts come to him.
Thank you… for fucks sake… I joke around and call people retards on WSB, but I didn’t realize almost everyone here has a double digit IQ. There hasn’t been a single thing Musk has said that hasn’t been magnified and treated like absolute truth by fanbois and conservatives alike.. It’s incredible.. and really fucking sad.
OP is literally posting project veritas, idiocy is a requirement.
I'm a securities lawyer. I was wondering while reading this, is the OP a securities lawyer? Because he sure wants to act like one
Elona want’s to buy Twitter @ 52 wk low!
Puts?
So after Twitter falls from $50 to $38 you want to open a short position?
I read somewhere today that Hindenburg closed their twitter short.
Think you missed the boat bro, probably calls at this point.
I would love to know from someone with a better understanding the rules surrounding insider trading whether Elon could have collared his Twitter stock at some point after he disclosed the acquisition publicly? Could he have locked in a $1B+ gain to get a free look at the company? Would that be legal? Just looking for someone who can provide an answer and point to relevant case law so I can read about it... Thanks in advance...
Nah, that would be a clear case of stock market manipulation. Here’s the presentation directly from the sec addressing the definition and examples: https://www.sec.gov/files/Market%20Manipulations%20and%20Case%20Studies.pdf
I loaded them today and they will be green as yard grass here very soon once twitter gets ran up in by the SEC for fraud... (who am I kidding, the SEC won’t do shit), but my puts will print non the less.
Accounts don’t go away if you delete the app
This could be a very real reason why Twitter is not technically lying. There are probably billions of Twitter accounts (including my own) which are juat abandoned and have not posted a thing for 5+ years. If let's say Twitter's accounts are: - 5% Active bots - 20% Active users - 75% Long-abandoned inactive accounts Then it would be true that only 5% of its total users were bots - even if everyone *feels* that "bots are everywhere" because the % of bots is *really* 20% once all the inactive, abandoned or seldom-used accounts that never post are excluded.
Elon was never plan to buy Twitter from the start. He just need a reason to cash out his Tesla shares without his fanboys cry about it lol.
I have not heard this theory but it makes as much sense as anything else. On one hand I do think he would have gone through with the deal if the market continued to skyrocket. The correction has everyone spooked and in light of it he is clearly overpaying. Thanks for the comment. I am going to think more about it.
Money this, Tesla that, he’s trying to acquire Twitter for ideological purposes. “It’s not about the money, it’s about sending a message” — that dude who wears makeup or something
It’s hilarious how many Twitter bots there are, and how easy it is to get them active. I keep forgetting “sugar” is a bot keyword. I’ll reply to a post about a smoothie, for example, mention sugar, and I’ll get at least 20 bots replying lol.
80% of my followers on Twitter are bots/scammers. (A handful of pictures of a hot girl, with no actual tweet content, likes, etc.)
Naw dude, those hot girls are actually interested in you, trust me
I can't say im not glad that twiter is going to hell.
I can’t understand what you didn’t write
He says he can’t say he’s not glad twitter is going to hell - why can’t he say that, you may ask? I don’t know, perhaps he has something stuck in his throat and can’t speak. Or maybe because he is glad twitter is going to hell so it would be a lie and he can’t say lies Is that case of double negative even incorrect in English? Sounds perfectly logical to me.
Fuck twitter
A) he was never going to buy it B) his methodology was put out on the internet and is rather crappy, he had a very inadequate definition of spam/bot where as Twitter defined what they mean quite well C) he will pay them the breakup fee OR Parag makes a public announcement preempting any battle over the breakup fee by announcing the two parties agree to break-up amicably and waive any claim or counterclaim to the fee
PUTS ON TWTR LETS GOOOO
If I was an employee at this company I would fucking run for the hills
Personally, I'd stick around lol. The memes have to be legendary! Plus, you can hope that Elon will move the HQ out of that hell hole known as San Francisco.
Elon was never going to buy it, are you kidding me. Elon just loves the attention.
They just go to court when he states fraud and therefore doesn't have to pay, twitter will want to fight but won't because somewhere some engineer at some point was emailing someone in exec suites that the spam number was such and such and much more then 5%. Hell everyone KNOWS it's more then 5%, you can buy a million followers of you want! Discovery could find that, and if it did Twitter would implode from share holder class action suits. E.g. Elon needs to pay a billion, he can spend another 100 mill taking Twitter to court for what a 50/50 chance of paying nothing. Twitter risks a complete company implosion if they loose as the class action lawsuit from shareholders and potential criminal charges for fraud Elon is not going to pay them a billion without a fight, or at a minimum playing chicken
Elon was the one who has been making or buying all the bots all along
Lol, are birds real dude?
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I know engineers that have DAT files of every email they have ever gotten or sent for thier entire careers. The engineering profession has quite a few OCD type personalities...
true heroes of our generation
my org doesn't allow for exporting of DAT files, I assume Twitter is the same way
Fair point, then again I'm certain the places some of the engineers I know worked at before would be upset if they knew he had every email from that job long after leaving So much for rules lol
"I'll buy Twitter to fix the bot and spam problem! Also free speech!" "Woah woah woah there's bots and spam on this platform I don't want it! Plus some people used their free speech at twitter and I don't like it!"
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New buyout price $4.20.
The problem ALOT of people is missing is that these bot accounts are used to manipulate stock prices believe it or not. If there is accounts that say have 1 million followers and even 20% are bots talking shit about XYZ company, it puts pressure on a company’s stock price. This is how these hedge trolls are cellar boxing companies by flooding message boards and social media blasting targeted companies while they sell unlimited counterfeit stock and NOTHING IS DONE ABOUT IT... What I think Elon has done is brought this issue into the light and now the SEC will have to investigate this issue (because twitters disclosures to the SEC is obviously bullshit) and it gives him leverage if they are in fact investigating him for his buy ins.... theres so much Fuckery going on, who knows what to think, but I know one thing for sure, if twitter filed fraudulent SEC filings, they are fucked by not only the SEC but by their own shareholders because everything is based on those bogus ass numbers and hell will reign down on some people’s asses heavily IMVHO.... either way, I can’t wait to see how this shit show turns out....
… you were doing so well.. and then you claimed Twitter submitted fraudulent SEC filings… Almost a really good post..
So... wouldn't twtr lying to it's shareholders about those fake account numbers have some repercussions?
If we learn that Twitter had information that the 5% bot estimate was actually wrong their safe harbor language would no longer protect them. At the very least the company will be bombarded by shareholder lawsuits. They might even face lawsuits from advertisers who believe they were defrauded. If the civil litigation uncovers real fraud the SEC will get involved.
I always trust r/wsb to upvote stupid takes. Dude probably didn’t spend a second reading the merger agreement nor does he understand that Twitter is entitled to specific performance under the merger agreement. Elon can’t just walk away. Twitter would be trading much lower if that were the case. A lot of people also confusing difference between users v mDAU. Twitter says bots constitute less than 5% of mDAUs, not users. They also caveat this by saying that this is a rough estimate.
I mean at this point all twitter needs to do is ban elons account citing some bullshit to trigger his rage to buy them out.
So should I short Twitter?
When we are done talking about Twitter bots, can we get to the porn on Facebook. Getting crazy how I get tagged on some porn post of Facebook, every single day
Shit maybe I need to get a FB account after all
> Twitter is very concerned about members of its engineering team talking to the media. So concerned they just released this warning to employees: That’s extraordinarily standard. I’ve gotten the same kind of warning for what any reasonable person would consider a very boring media event. Nothing should be read into that.
Jesus Christ your post history is like right out of that mass murderers manifesto. Seek help.
Why should Musk buy that inflated company built on lies, deceit and woke-ness in the first place? Give them 100 Million and walk away!
I could almost swear there used to be a company named Enron that lied about its numbers too…what happened to them ?
Do we know if he dumped his shares when it hit 50? That would've made him enough to even pay that fee and destroy the company
MySpace would have been better
LOL is it still around? What happened to it?
I look forward to the post-mortem on this dead blue bird deal.
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Nothing will happen except titter going to $10
I tend to agree... This is not going to be pretty...
It’s no surprise that 15% or so are bots. Just look at some of the feeds and it’s really easy.
“I can tell by some of the pixels and seeing quite a few bots in my time” - WSB Statistician, PhD
Who the fuck would want to buy twitter? It's so old and filled with junk
Propaganda outlet?
>Who the fuck would want to buy twitter? Well, not Musk...
Bruh this sub just went full r/conspiracy with the project veritas bullshit Who gives a flying fuck about whether or not musk pays a penalty for backing out of the deal he initiated? Sounds like it was all a publicity stunt anyway.
Your a moron if you think musk is actually trying to back out because the number of bots is higher then he originally thought. The reason hes trying to back out is because tech stock prices are down 30%+ from when he signed this deal. Also lol at taking Elon Musks word that bot numbers are 4x higher this is the only guy in history that has pretended to take a massive public company private as a joke.
Ironically, you are making the same point I was trying to make. The bot issue is just the excuse. The market is the issue. Did you read my post? I propose we give each other a little grace. I'll assume the best of you and I'd hope you'd assume the best of me.
Fuck Elon Musk & all his lil fan boys. He KNEW how bad the bots were before this. If you use Twitter, you know how many bots it has. Hope he ends up paying Twitter more then a billion
Lololol there's like 100s of fake Elon Musk accounts
He is using the bot situation as an excuse to get out of the deal. The market correction has Elon and everyone else spooked. In light of the decline in value of peer companies his offer is WAY too high at this point.
ofc is offer was too high, that's why they agreed to it in the first place. Wasnt the first time someone offered to buy twitter.
Agree. Google trading at 1/4 his pe for almost the same growth must have him thinking
So he offers to buy twitter and get rid of bots, and then complains that there are too many bots. Good fucking luck with that reasoning being the basis for backing out lmao
I'm here to cut the grass but will only cut it if its under 1 inch