By - Chester-Ming
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original wsb paper
The dude who did this was clearly too smart to be a WSB mod
well, he was a farmer. So unlike most of the people in here, he had skills of actual value.
I have skills of actual value. Meet me by the dumpster.
Nice try. The skills you're talking about are a dime a dozen in this sub.
Quite literally a dozen jobs for a dime
I can meat and beat any price!
Meet me in a bathroom. Im a tiler 😅
High regards here!
More info about this:
[Samuel Benner, a farmer, published his book in 1875](https://ordonews.com/history-is-cyclical-the-benner-cycle-predicts-the-ups-and-downs-of-the-market-for-100-years-ahead/) about how the market was cyclical.
TL;DR: We on this sub have a lesser understanding of the stock market than farmers did over 150 years ago.
# Sell everything you own
# Live in a storage unit
# Save for 1 year
# Buy land
# Start a farm
No towelie we don’t want to go get High
Maybe I'll just get a little high
Just going to test it annnnnnnddddd mmmmmm that’s good shit.
*I'm walking on Sunshine*
Fuck you bitch its not illegal!
I could remember if only I could get high.
That's it! That's the beat to funky town!
*Leave me alone, just let me walk on sunshine a little longer*
You're the worst character ever Towelie
Is there some kind of towelie-ban?
"The secret code?"
"No, that's the melody to Funky Town!"
Boop. Boop. Boop. Boop. Boop. Boop. Boop. Boop. Boop. Boop.
Speak for yourself, buddy.
I'm not your buddy, guy
I’m not your guy, friend!
I'm not your friend, buddy!
Are you sure?
step 1: buy a farm
step 2: grow marijuana
step 3: sell marijuana
step 4: smoke marijuana
Step one: steal underpants
Step three: profit
Sounds like you got Tegridy
Nice small article, and not disputing someone who found "logical meaning" after almost going insane; however how did he know the crop cycle was affected by the 13 year solar cycle and not the 13 year cicada cycle?
Seriously though, my best mentor was a farmer and he too had some far out there observational POV mindsets. Farming is adjacent to "returning to the monke" in my opinion.
Tangential Rant (T;R) - working on a farm (alfalfa/Timothy grass) was one of the best jobs ever and I'm an engineer now. Didn't have to work with general public assholes, did different work every day, projects varied and always had a sense of accomplishment at the end, the boss was a real person and not a profit driven soulless husk so was very practical. Got to work outside and see mother nature working around me. Best shape of my life. And i did feel like i was working for MY second family. Just my take, last time work felt real.
Edit: i swear i read 13.
108 year solar cycle for the Chicago Cubs.
Sadly this statement is true ![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|sob)
Cicadas are 17 year cycles in Ohio.
There are 2 major groups of cicadas: annual cicadas and periodical cicadas. All cicadas spend most of their lives as larvae underground and emerge only to breed. Annual cicadas' life cycles are staggered and some emerge each year. Periodical cicadas emerge in synchronous cycles and thus emerge en mass at approximately the same time. Probably due mostly to geographical differences in soil temperatures (and therefore development rates, as the insects are ectothermic), periodical cicadas in the USA tend to emerge in 17 year cycles in more northern states, and in 13 year cycles in the South.
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If'n I be so smart, then why ain't I rich?
There are multiple cycles of different cicadas happening at different times.
11 year solar cycle
As an engineer myself: wasn’t it nice when you knew what needed to be done, knew how it affected the bottom line, and knew when you were done? Engineering has none of that.
I miss not having to stop what I'm working on to attend a meeting that i didn't participate in and took nothing from, only to go back and have to start over on my train of thought.
On the farm, only three things to stop for: food/water, bathroom, or injury
Yeah, working the soil and having a finished "product" gives immense sense of satisfaction
Guess I should have been a farmer...........🤣🤣🤣🤣
U will farm dick milk soon enough
God damn I lost my shit laughing at this simple reply. Made myself look like a fool in the waiting room of a truck shop.
Step into the wash room and get back to work!
He is already at the OG Wendy’s dumpster , might as well make some diesel money
Farming does have kind of a WSB about it, which is where the following phrase comes from:
“If I had a million dollars, I’d farm it till it was gone.”
FiL always says he was a carpenter to support his farming habit.
My dad was a farmer. He could never pull it off without also doing mechanic work but that vocation took balls of steel. The amount of times he'd have to bullshit his way through a season until hay was cut or cows calved because he had absolutely no cash, definitely not for the faint of heart. Funny enough he hates the stock market. Probably PTSD, lol
I hate to admit it, but once I saw this card in a comment earlier in the year, I've been buying at least partly with the logic that the card supports it.
Hang tough and keep buying - you'll be rewarded.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient” - Warren Buffett
And it just HAPPENS to be that the wealthy can afford to be more patient than us poors... although we wouldn't want to start connecting those dots. The picture it makes is always a guillotine.
Are we sure this isn’t Cramers grandpa
Farmers have to be observant and decently able to predict future occurrences from past history. Good farmers anyway. A lot of them do what they do because that's how they learned to do it. An all too common failure.
Related to the Kondratiev Wave?
Cool new Thing tm is invented -> Growth and expansion happens, remakes social order
Thing causes innovation and entrepreneurship, new industry
Thing becomes normalized and taken for granted, plateau
Thing is abandoned, replaced by the newer thing, banks take back their toys depression
Insert stuff like (steam power, or the internet, or AI)
And the pigs go brrrrrrr
Someone needs to be the hero and figure out how to overlay this on a Trading View chart to run a trading algo on the pine editor
Ok, so somebody copied the original. I was gonna say that font looked like Microsoft Word circa late 1990s Times New Roman to me
2023-1875 = 148 < 150
I can barely read how do you expect my math to be correct
Too Long; Tried Reading ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
What crayons predictions from the 1800s looked like.
Well they got 2023 correct, that’s enough confirmation for me.
All in boys!
It said to sell in 2007 too right before the GFC not a bad time to sell
And it said 2019 ..they must have known COVID and that the money printer would get turned on
Ok I’m following this for the next 30 yrs
!remindme 30 years
!remindme 100 years
Existential dread intensifies
!remindme 8000 years
!remindme -147 years
RemindMe! 30 years
Idk how to do it but I want to see this on a Trading View chart so someone can run a trading bot analysis on how this strategy would have done in a generational cohort analysis view (ie in what year did the avg boomer reach the age of 20? gen x? Millennial? And how would they have faired investing $10k into this strategy from that year for a duration of 10-20 years)
I just did a quick analysis cause I'm a loser. It absolutely gets demolished. Buy and hold beats it on every possible start year essentially.
There are very very very very few examples where you end up winning with this tactic. Starting in 1969 if you bought and held, in 1974 you'd miss the -26% year and be ahead of those who bought and held. but you'd immediately be beat by the following 37% gainer in 1975.
The difference just goes exponential, so the longer the plan is in play the larger the difference in outcomes. The closest you can come to a long term win is buying in 2005, having 2 reasonable years, selling and sitting out for 5 years before jumping in and riding 2012 to 2015. You end up at $18,600 following this 'guide' but buy and hold only beats you with $21,100.
So buying in 2005 and going 10 years has you *only* losing by like 10% compared to by and hold, But then you're fully doubled up on by 2019 and tripled up on in 2021.
So basically... yeah... just buy and hold. The market definitely has cycles, but predicting cycles leads to confirmation biases and sampling biases like crazy. If it was a real thing, people would actually know how to do it.
If you take 100,000 people and have them all guess "up or down" every year, after 1 year 50,000 will be right. After 2 years 25,000 will be.... So after 10 years there are still 97 "geniuses" who can time the market and know exactly what's going to happen. They're the richest most successful people ever. They are brilliant.
Then next year there are still 48 'masterminds' that have been right all these years. After a 20 year career, you can easily have a bunch of people who were correct almost all those years. Add a slight bias tilt away from 50/50 for very obvious ominous events, insider trading, and better diversification strategies and tada, now you have a financial sector.
These people will be interviewed and people will learn from them. They will write books about success and about how their method led to great financial achievements. They have no choice but to believe that their process was their own doing and not a greater probabilistic anomaly experienced by that single entity.
Just buy good companies and good long lasting products. Everything is an investment, your time, your food, everything. Invest wisely and wait a decade. Time goes faster than you think, but the progress is almost imperceptible day to day.
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… *chef’s kiss*👌
Did you hear that Ray Dalio!?
Add one more person to the pile that says your cyclical markets bullshit is useless!
There was a bear market in ‘66, so they were correct in saying to sell in ‘65
Historically, we have an outbreak of some disease ~100 years, so spot on for their prediction. The 2007 prediction is more impressive.
I'm now a little worried about retiring in 2050 or sooner due to the 2043 and 2053 predictions. Could be a rocky time in my old age!
just pull all your money in 2042 , then buy long puts. we have the roadmap dude , we are basically future billionares
To be fair there were a lot of people waiting for something to happen in 2020, I think if Covid wasn’t the catalyst something else would have been.
It almost crashed in 19 but a secret multi trillion bailout happened.
If you can remember to the long long ago (2019) there was actually a lot of talk about impending recession just around the corner. Then covid and the stimulus happened and we all different things to worry about.
This pic is going to have 50 different versions over the next 10 years that all paint a different picture for the future. People have to start using a service like [stockalgos.com/leaderboard](https://stockalgos.com/leaderboard) or a blockchain to track predictions so they can't change as the future unfolds.
Yeah but this pic indicates that I should go all in, so that is exactly what I am gunna do. Hold my bag![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
Pictures paint 1000 words and these words are telling me to buy
Better too early than too late tbf. This chart is remarkably close which is really weird.
i know they say not to time the market but damn this is like biff with a sports almanac.
No way this was drawn by Chat GPT to make us believe it’s legit. FULL PORT SPY LEAPS
They got a lot more than 2023 correct, they also got the start of WW2 market lows of ‘42, the bear market of ‘66, dot com bubble ‘99, Great Recession of ‘08. Literally almost all of this is correct
If people here will take a second from sniffing/eating the crayons, they will see that the years are deliberately fitted to market cycles *in the past*.
1924-1931: 7 years cycle
1942-1951: 9 years cycle
1958-1969: 11 years cycle
1978-1985: *7 years cycle
1996-2005: 9 years cycle
2012-2023: 11 years cycle
Now, why in the hell are these cycles these odd numbers? What criterion did this clairvoyant farmer use in the 19th century, to decide on that specific series of numbers?
There were already liquidity crises in 2018, there were credit/political crises in Europe in 2016. None of that was or could've been predicted.
Almost as if internet just makes shit up and then passes it around.
EDIT: big surprise, people are actually defending such a vague, wishy washy approach to understanding economic cycles. Then you guys wonder why you don't make any money, while you're still stuck in the 19th century. Astrologers Unite!
1978-1985 is 7 years not 17, it’s like you’re deliberately bad at pattern recognition, you almost spelled it out by accident 7,11,9…
Crash events are in a series 18,20,16 market lows are defined by separations of 7,11,9, the ascents and descents within those lows are defined with the pattern 2,5,4,7,3,6 as in 2 years up 5 years down 4 years up 7 years down 3 years up six years down etc and the spacing between market highs is 8,9,10. Nothing was “fitted” except the pattern to the previous data Samuel Benner worked with in 1870, there are numerous times the sequence misses by a couple years particularly with the 254736 sequence.
The guy also made the chart in 1870 so I think he did pretty good.
This type of patterning actually reminds me a lot of tidal calculating.
He didn't include Black Monday 1987
It's not though. The cycles go 7 9 11 repeatedly at the bottom and 8 9 10 at the top.
> such a vague, wishy washy approach to understanding economic cycles.
As opposed to the more modern, precise method of throwing a dart at an excel chart while blindfolded.
Crayons were invented in 1903.
PreCrayon wall street bet legend
The 2023 is a good time to buy stocks prediction might be accurate.
2019 was a damn fine year to sell as well.
1999 was a year or so b4 the dot com crash so not too bad either. Fuck even the 2007 year is spot on.
So this is what Astrology feels like for women? I might finally get it.
Holy shit I hope this chart is made up
No it’s real. And it’s over 150 years old.
Of course it’s real. We are all looking at it.
It’s also made up.
Of course it's made up. We are all looking at it.
No it wasnt? 2021 was the year to sell
Exactly. If you sold in 2019 you missed the covid boom.
No, you sell in 2019 before COVID crash and then buy in 2020
You then use your lofty earnings to go back in time and give this man a hug.
Uh did you forget the stock market crashed when Covid hit?
Yeah, like a little later this year around spring.
Sorry homeboy's Time Machine from 1875 was a little bit off for you
So you're saying we only go up from here and should sell in 2026 and go full monke in 2032 ![img](emote|t5_2th52|29637)
It’s pretty much saying it will bottom in 2023 good time to buy and then sell in 2026
Sorry. Already went all in based on a 1800s chart ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
It doesn't matter. Going by that chart, the world is going to end in 2060 anyway.
nah...everything else is on the back of the card.
Treasure map on the back.
Wendy's Coupon, Free Jr. Frosty.
Wait, isn't that the year Nintendo said Animal Crossing New Horizon would stop being supported?
It's all coming together, now....
So while it’s not exactly accurate for the timing of a crash, if you sold based on certain years, you probably would’ve reaped excellent returns.
1. 1927, little early but probably the right time, the crash was in 29.
2. 1945 is hard to judge because WWII just ended, so pass
3. 1965, there’s the miss
4. 1981, it’s very early, and I doubt many people faced losses from the Chilean crisis of 82, or other events. But Black Monday in 87 definitely hit some people hard
5. 1999, perfect timing. Before the Dot-com bubble, and assuming you got in before the bubble burst and sold it in 1999, you’d be sitting pretty
6. 2019: assuming you sold at the end of the year, you’d avoid the hit that Covid originally did to the market, while being able to re-purchase your holdings at a greatly reduced price during the first big drop
All things considered, this is some amazing A+ market analysis for what essentially is crayon level market analysis in the 1800’s.
You forgot they also said to sell in 2007, that one is another perfect timing.
Yeah, that’s the one that really stood out to me
Well, this chart was hard to read, and I’m a regard. Cut me some slack.
It's cool fam we're all regarded in here
In my life time this thing has been very accurate so far
Bro I swear this thing is Big Brain 30000 level and I legit feel like we stumbled on a secret guide to the market that will make us all billionaires if we just stick to it.
This thing is my new Bible. Thank you Reddit.
Alternatively, this is one of hundreds of such guides and now the ones among them that accidentally got it rightish seem like savants.
Your observation reminded me of this [excerpt from John Allen Paulos's 1989 book, *Innumeracy*](https://math.temple.edu/~paulos/oldsite/scam.html)
>Alternatively, this is one of hundreds of such guides and now the ones among them that accidentally got it rightish seem like savants.
It's not some huge secret, saying that we have a crash every 9 or so years and markets are cyclical is a common knowledge, problem is if it will be 11 years instead of 9 and crazy gain happen during that 2 year period then you might be buying back higher.
This chart just proves market timing is counterproductive.
If you never sold through all of these "crashes" and only did buy and hold from 1924 until today, reinvesting all dividends and ignoring the headlines, you'd be way better off financially than if you followed this chart.
I'd like to see this chart simulated.
I just did a real quick and dirty google sheet with yearly S&P prices, assuming that
1) every year you get $10,000 to invest
2) you buy or sell on Jan 1st only
and compared blindly buying and selling based on Benner's chart vs buy and hold.
Buy and hold wins.
yeah, there's a LOT of speculation in this thread that essentially means:
>If you look at it sideways, and ignore the outliers, the chart is almost dead on!
Alright well I'm going all in (200$). Whoever drew this did a lot more work than I care to and I believe them.
It is surprisingly accurate for something made more than 100 years ago.
It predicted the Great Depression, the .Com Bubble and the Covid 19 crash.
Surely farmers from 150 years ago can continue to perfectly predict highs/lows all in. Bull gang.
I’d love to see somebody do a comparison of strictly following this strategy vs buy and hold over the past 100, 50 and 20 years
If it’s better then I know how to invest until 2060 bayybeeee
I would need to pull up Excel to do a detailed backtest.
But, just looking at it, this thing predicted the Great Depression.
Selling at the top and buying near the bottom there alone probably makes this strategy win on the 100 year return front.
Pretty sure those fonts didnt exist in 1875
Times new roman was 1931.
Thought this exact thing myself. Most "old documents" that are fakes can be spotted by font or grammar usage
Just Google it, it's real - The Benner Cycle
I mean it's barely a "fake," they cleaned up the image but didn't change much about it. Digital restoration is maybe a better descriptor
Someone's cleaned it up. If you google image search "George trich times when to make money" you'll see what I mean.
Ye old when to diamond hands chart
I’d trust this table over any advise from a random WSB bro
It’s a 20 year cycle because that’s when the kids with no money who don’t know anything grow up to be adults with a lot of money who still don’t know anything![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
Of course because we know children across the world are born in 20 year cycles
On the internet, nobody knows you're a Cicada.
\*slowly returns to hollowed out tree trunk for another decade and a half\*
It's actually 16, 18 and 20 year cycles, not just an even 20 the whole time.
As a millennial I say Oh God not another crisis
What the absolute hell does 2035 have in store?
My wild guess unemployment rates 20-30%
When the Tesla bots with AI take everyone’s jobs
Lead up to 2036 election. That's assuming the US exists in a state to have elections at that point.
COVID35 LETS FUCKIN GOOO
Could it be this simple?
Yes, like every quacky prediction. Let me guess a few things about you as example: you mind your own business, but helps ppl when they need; you are a calm person, until someone messes with you. See?
bro you can't be doxxing people like that
This has converted me from Ber.
I now eat grass and act irrationally around cows.
2023 buy Corner Lots.. is real estate gonna go up more starting 2024 ? 😏
He had me at buy.
I'm getting me a corner lot baby!
The answer to that depends on the answer to these:
1. Do you own a home?
2. Would you like to?
Experts predicting China will invade Taiwan in 2027. So 2026 is a good year to sell.
So this chart from 1800 told us to sell all stocks in 2019 and we didn’t listen? Covid hits end of 2019, stocks plummit. And this mf chart warned us 200 years ago!?!
1927 just ahead of the Great Depression.
1945 post war lull.
1965 a few years early but the late 60s early 70s recession was right around the corner.
1981 stagflation into s and l.
1999 dotcom pop.
2019 Covid crisis into inflation and now bank scares.
I mean only crisis it missed was 08 but I guess it was a good buy low period and it is represented as such on the chart.
Not bad for an ape from the 1800s.
It said sell in ‘07 buy back again five years in 2012….so how did they “miss 2008?”….by not participating in it I guess
100% the guy who wrote this ended up working at Wendys. The fact that Wendys didn't exist at the time is not nearly enough to stop someone with regardation this strong.
What happens in 2059? Doomsday? 😬
The stock market becomes only a luxury of the rich in 2059. The poor gets sent to Jupiter to extract methane.
We get to go to Jupiter? Awesome.
Buy high sell low.
Amazing crayon skills. Something to aspire to...
Ahhh... classic "Charlie Brown's shirt" pattern forming on the 100 years chart
It's not far off
So rally until 2026 and sell all to buy again 3 years later.
Thank god it's that simple! Otherwise people would be loosing money
Scribble in the bottom right there says “RemindMe! 100 years”
Has no one noticed how this is times new roman font that didn't come out until the 1930's? I'm sure that the information is still accurate, but there is no way this was signed in 1875