T O P
inverse2win

My calls are saved hallelujah 🙌


UnwelcomedTruth

Name checks out.


Vmena0522666

I see y’all’s battle and we’ll see tomorrow’s winner good night may the better man win


ILoveYorihime

!remindme April 22


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DYTTIGAF

You couldn't have waited until the second interest rate increase (after the March) that will happen in June? I agree with your thesis. But your leaving a few months of bone crushing declines on the table...in my view. Good luck.


Tradedcatharsis

That's way too smart. I like OP's decision to disregard all upcoming future events. My crayons say SPY will move right, so this should work out.


vnfigueira03

Bet the market would move left because of your comment regard


UnwelcomedTruth

I saw volume and pivot collapse yesterday so I had no way of telling if the market would leg down 0.5 or 4.0 by the end of the week. Agree I could have left money on the table.


karlhelfer

Bro yes hold out until next CPI and interest rate decision. This is gonna print 🏳️‍🌈🐻🏳️‍🌈


UnwelcomedTruth

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)🌈🐻


darkspd96

I just sold you those puts my man


jepifhag

Flat for a year is probably where the money is


UnwelcomedTruth

You ready to bag hold?


darkspd96

You mean just hold SPY...? It's basically a retirement play little man


UnwelcomedTruth

You mean in 10 years when your bags become valuable again? Thanks for providing for my lambo ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)![img](emote|t5_2th52|29093)


darkspd96

You're a complete shithead arent you?


UnwelcomedTruth

![img](emote|t5_2th52|29093)


awesometim1

His existence is the unwelcomed truth


ThePlatinumPancakes

The best way to get rich quick is to get rich slow. And you, my friend, are not trying to get rich slow


UnwelcomedTruth

I’m a single guy with no wife and kids. Why do I need to worry about doing anything slow?


ThePlatinumPancakes

You can choose to live your life the way you want to. But the key to financial safety regardless of dependents is to not gamble and pick smarter safer plays. A simple mutual or index fund following the NASDAQ/S&P or otherwise market as a whole over a broad 20-30 year horizon will be almost gurranteed to best any hobby trader day trading high risk strategies over the same horizon. IE) would you slowly build up a bear guaranteed $1-3 million over your lifetime or have a small chance at making more instantly, but also never being able to retire cause you lost it all and now live paycheck to paycheck?


pw7090

I thought that too until I ran the numbers. I am 40 with a negative net worth and a baby on the way. I need to take some serious risks or I will die destitute. The only way to become rich slowly is to have a lot of money to save. To make a million in 20 years you need to save $2k/month. In my best months I can save maybe $200.


Zorper

My dude gambling on stocks is not the way if you're already on that tight of a budget. You're just going to fuck yourself. Save your $200 a month. I save $2K a month and I don't fuck with options. The guys you see get rich here got insanely lucky and made usually absolutely moronic plays to have that happen. For every 1 of those there are 500,000 who lost. Most expensive part of kids is daycare and doctors. If you have childcare you can figure out for cheap, that's like 90% of the cost of a kid. They eat hardly anything for the first few years and their clothes cost hardly anything.


pw7090

I know, but I need to take a chance. I've already lost $26k in the last year. But If I could save $2k a month I would be gambling either. My wife doesn't work, which is partly why we can't save.


UnwelcomedTruth

So have money in the bank as I’m old, single and alone? Who fucking cares at that point? This is a narrative for a different time and an America that doesn’t exist anymore and never will again.


ThePlatinumPancakes

Ehh I wish you the best of luck then. But gambling and investing are two very different mindsets. And I’m afraid you might have the be thinking the later is the same as the former


UnwelcomedTruth

No, there’s no confusion I’m gambling.


Kitten_Team_Six

Do you have any spare lives by chance?


Relevant-Nebula8300

I went long today one of us will make money


UnwelcomedTruth

I had calls as well… but sold when my thesis of a retest to 403 didn’t work out. Still think there’s a chance a spike to 403 will happen, but in the long run my PUT’s will print.


Relevant-Nebula8300

Idk you’re buying early support on the 200 although barely still held


UnwelcomedTruth

I saw it and agree. But that’s literally the last support besides daily pivot lines. Not only that, MACD on a 3 year chart is about to cross over at 0. The only other bullish sign I could find was RSI on the 3 year chart still technically at an incline.


pw7090

Does any of this really matter? Can't you find as many bullish and bearish indicators as you want over any given time frame?


UnwelcomedTruth

What I’ve come to realize is you can’t teach anyone to read TA the same way. Everyone has to learn the tools and see their own patterns play out to get used to the markets behavior in the way they understand it.


jepifhag

Nothing feels good about this market op. But you got a 50 percent chance why not go to vegas


UnwelcomedTruth

Vegas will be after SPY goes to 380 ![img](emote|t5_2th52|29637)


Rick_C-69

Double it and give it to the next person.


-bickd-

That's literally JPow's strategy


robbinhood69

Wait until we rally for a bit This is most dangerous (read : bullish) part of opex cycle for a burry


UnwelcomedTruth

I thought SPX was going to rally to 4030, but the price and volume collapsed hard yesterday. Didn’t want to miss out on the leg down. Still feel like I could see some momentary pain with a swing up towards my original thesis.


okokibuynok

These will print


UnwelcomedTruth

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)


armen89

Wow please tell me you sold


UnwelcomedTruth

Nope, following down to 380.


armen89

God speed regard o7


Stonksgotodamoon

It’ll probably print but lots of bullish divergences forming. And daily bullish engulfing candle today . This could rip up to the .618 fib level maybe higher I got a couple trendline as I’m watching but by April yeah should be golden. I’ll be watching to see if I can get these cheaper than you. Remindme! 4d


UnwelcomedTruth

With SPY breaking so aggressively past a yearly pivot, I’m pretty sure we’re headed to 412. Still confident the price will crash back down, especially when JPow puts the smack down. .50 is on the table.


Stonksgotodamoon

With ya there brother 412 is right around the .618 fib level


zach7953

Nice. $380 SPY Puts 04/21 exp over here :)


UnwelcomedTruth

Brother… yes, 380 or bust!!


SnooDonkeys9918

I sold you those lol


zach7953

We will see in time my friend! Averaging down currently


Comfortable_Strike_8

Congrats and fuck you


ChillDudeMrGamer69

I have a feeling these will print


uselessfkface

once yields reverse these puts will be worth zer0. March seasonality is extremely bullish. GL, ur really gon need it.


UnwelcomedTruth

Short term bond yield are at 5%. Do you really think institutional investors are going to stay in stocks? They let retail pump the market, now they’re rug pulling and leaving you all with the bag.


DayLate10kShort

Best comment you've made on here so far. 5% guaranteed for them.


bbien12

Do yourself a favor and apply for cash-settled SPX


UnwelcomedTruth

Good call. Uncle Sam definitely wants these incoming gainz.


vorrenthlk

you have time for this to play out, macro news starting to set in. not sure what your daily theta is, but i’d close the position before the 30 day mark. the contracts will start to rapidly decay when below the 1 month period. god speed


UnwelcomedTruth

I’m obviously regarded, but my understanding is theta really only effects extrinsic value and the more ITM you are, the less IV you have anyways, so as long as I stay ITM I should be ok.


xxTheForcexx

Is this true?


pw7090

Yes, but it's not an either/or scenario. If you're $1 ITM, it's not like you suffer zero theta. The deeper ITM you get, the less of the premium is extrinsic. But obviously those options are much more expensive to begin with.


Hamhampopo

Smart, calendar spread at the money. These will make money. Remember "No one ever went broke from taking profit"!


jchenn14

https://preview.redd.it/tfv3did0z9la1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7bc69364efeb4ad8918b90793ed4c38344b7ee50 VWAP came down and is basing around 395, a key resistance level. For bulls, this is a big area to test and try to break through tomorrow. Kill two birds with one stone. Also, we havent tested the 200day MA yet. It is literally right on the cusp. With 5 and 50 day converging, it’s going to be a big moment for how we’ll trend for in next weeks. We are literally sandwiched between 50 and 200ma. I think the safer play would have been to wait until after Jpow, and then buy a 30dte. I play 0-14dtes, so my approach is a bit different, but im guessing bulls will claim 50ma, and we rally a bit until jpow in late march.


UnwelcomedTruth

SPY broke below SMA in after hours. Tomorrow is going to be red!


jchenn14

I dont think it did bro


UnwelcomedTruth

You’re right, it just touched again…bullish =[


ComfortablePoetry986

Okay good now I’m gonna buy calls, I’ve been waiting for a sign


vladthedoge

Bet these will keep printing slowly every couple of days


UnwelcomedTruth

That’s my thought bro. I had a single bullish call opposite of this bet that kept failing levels. When I realized yesterday what was happening, went all in.


cosmicmeatloaf

bear crew


ValarOrome

I also wanna go balls deep on bear spreads. Thank you for the financial advice.... Wife will be thrilled!


UnwelcomedTruth

I don’t know if this is as much advice as degeneracy on display. Good luck fellow 🌈🐻


FabulousResearcher33

I agree with you OP. SPY puts looking juicy


UnwelcomedTruth

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)


ChanceCamp2418

![img](emote|t5_2th52|29637) I’m pleased


Successful_Car1670

My cajones have shriveled these past few months but seeing your leadership I might join you for one more bear ride into Valhalla


UnwelcomedTruth

![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)


Granter

nioce


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UnwelcomedTruth

This is incorrect!!


MMWMWWMW

Picture only showed the $3,580 so it took that as your position


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leonbrown251

Following this


dr_trains

Sell


UnwelcomedTruth

Nope! Not til 380.


dr_trains

damn you could have sold, taken profit, and bought the same puts for cheaper


UnwelcomedTruth

It’s true bro.


GoodGoodVixen

![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|facepalm)


IceFabulous7202

I’d just full port sQQQ shares instead 3x leveraged against QQQ and not theta decay. Or Atleast done 30k puts and 50k shares


queefy_

Should have waited a couple months. The spy just doesn’t want to die.


UnwelcomedTruth

That’s actually why I did this. It is finally dying, at least from what I can see.


reasontree

Powell will take all your money.


stockmanozzy

You risked $80k life savings for $3k gains? Should've just bought shares and let it ride and grow.


UnwelcomedTruth

Well, at this point it’s not 3k anymore 📈🤞🏼


Due-Educator5848

Congrats


UnwelcomedTruth

Thesis is checking out so far ![img](emote|t5_2th52|29637)


crackheadwizard

And now?


UnwelcomedTruth

Same. As I mentioned in other threads, I expected a possible retest up to 403.


kenjiurada

You regards are ruining the stock market. This is why we can’t have nice things.


UnwelcomedTruth

Depends on which end of the trade you’re on ![img](emote|t5_2th52|29093)


DonaldPump9

Call it is


donni3j3tt

How much are these up now??


facu1995

!remindme 2 weeks


options1337

Bruh, you literally bought Puts on the bottom of the down trend and then SPY shot up for 3 days straight. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


UnwelcomedTruth

I didn’t hear no bell.


options1337

True.


facu1995

Did you sell?


UnwelcomedTruth

I did.