I have an ETF ([FLXB.DE](https://FLXB.DE) Franklin FTSE Brazil UCITS ETF, accumulating). For a while now, the ETF is trading 'at a discount': today's price is €19,94, while the underlying assets are worth €23,34. That is a big discrepancy I feel. Is this normal and how log does such a situation last? I chose the accumulating ETF because in Belgium we have dividend tax but no capital gains tax so accumulating and hoping for the value to go up is better taxwise.

Is there a good forum for investors similar to Flyertalk? Love this subreddit but reddit isn't the best for searching relevant data, grouping topics, etc

Ironically Wallstreetbets was fairly damn good pre GME. Now everything is a shitshow. Every time I post somebody sends me some discord link nonsense

Why did $TSLA [spike down](https://imgur.com/a/CTMgD8i) briefly AH today? What kind of activity might have cause this?

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Buffett buying Activision shares right before it comes out that Microsoft is buying them. Buffett buying Intel and TSMC shares right before it comes out that Apple is using their plants. So blatant that Pelosi is blushing.

Apple already uses TSMC plants… this is like common knowledge.

Idk, while the timing is interesting buffet literally has more money than he could ever want and is like 130 years old ..he gave 100 bil to the gates foundation because he didn't know what else to do with it... would be weird to be insider trading, unless it's some of the people under him that have kind of taken over maybe

God damn the reddit hate train on Nvidia. Nothing they do is immune to recession and after AMD and various others are taking big L earnings going into shitter was expected. Unless AMD tears Nvidia a new asshole with their graphics cards and in the same data center business the company is going to be fine long term.

Are we reading the same Reddit? I see people obsessed with Nvidia here and wonder why people spend so much time talking about one stock. Also almost every company can make an argument that they’re recession proof, doesn’t mean that the stock doesn’t go down during recessions.

I don't think Reddit has a problem with Nvidia as a company, it's the insane valuation....their p/e this quarter is like 150....they have a 400b market cap or something insane on like 5b of quarterly revenue? It makes no sense unless they're showing massive growth If you made apples market cap 5 trillion tomorrow id say to stay the fuck away too, doesn't matter how good the company is if it's wildly overvalued

A lot of the anger on Reddit comes from their 4000 series pricing and general anti-consumer tactics. So people wanted to see the company get 'punished' somehow.

Well they have been getting punished in stock price

It’s a great company long term. Just your typical Reddit bullshit where people just comment on here based on the market sentiment. Semi’s are very cyclical, investors know this, have people on here acting like their growth slowing is permanent and we’re going back to steam engines to power stuff. Just noise, I’ve had lot of solid buys on nvda this year that I’m happy about long term. I been in here talking about TSM for last 3 months too saying they were solid buy and just got downvoted lol had some nice buys on it $60-$70, then Berkshire comes out with position in it and people on here lose their minds. Don’t know how to think and invest for themselves.

Not sure if the market has bottomed but TLT? I think it could have. Anyone start a position recently?

funny to read this cause i just did today before close -

Started a position last week figuring PPI would be good. Will definitely DCA into it in the coming months as we aren't out of the woods yet.

Went in with TMF

Definitely a nice play at $8, will get in tomorrow.

DCA into it. My cost basis is currently about ~ $6.8 or so and I'm planning to add more.

How high do you think it will get once the yield curves straighten out?

Inst investors still very worried about missing the next bull run. Soooo many bids just under the surface in the indexes. The consumer is def hunkering down and the mkt shrugged. Odd, no eerie.

> Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) on Thursday forecast stronger-than-expected profit in the fourth quarter as the carrier sees travel demand remaining robust despite growing risks of an economic recession, sending its shares higher. > > The Atlanta-based carrier expects an adjusted profit of $1.00-$1.25 per share in the quarter through December on a possible 9% jump in revenue from the same period in 2019. That's higher than a profit of 79 cents a share expected by analysts in a Refinitiv survey. > > U.S. carriers are enjoying the strongest consumer demand in three years. Reopening of borders after the COVID-19 pandemic as well as a strong U.S. dollar are encouraging more Americans to travel overseas while office reopenings are boosting corporate travel demand. (October 13th) Hunkering down or traveling the world?

DKS is really becoming a great stock to swing trade.

Cheap retailers are a real battleground right now. Some, like dks, have to be a steal but could still get cut in 1/2. At some point the entire space will ramp huge. There are zero new bug box store coming down the line and if a retailer hasn’t gone belly up by now I think it’s a buy somewhere in here.

It’s a swing trade…

An anti-gun sporting goods store seems like it will have problems you can take advantage of like that anti-gun Black Rifle coffee company.

Them deciding to piss off their best customers seems like a really bad decision.

Dear /u/Republic8583 , [Screenshot 1](https://i.imgur.com/uaJ3gTr.png) and [Screenshot 2](https://i.imgur.com/WlJhhku.png) Are you a bot, a human that plagiarizes, Chris Bakke himself, or is Chris Bakke browsing this subreddit and publishing comments for viral Tweets? Edit: and blocked lol. Imagine plagiarizing on an anonymous stock forum for karma.

I got blocked for calling them the plagiarizer that they are lmao

We all did lol

Who is Chris bakke

You tell me, you are the one writing the same comments! /r/karmacourt

What same comments I thought of it n I wrote it I asked u who’s Chris u didn’t reply

Straight to jail! Edit- lmao he just blocked me for the joke

Plagiarizer.

gotem

NVDA Q3 EPS $0.58 Misses $0.69 Estimate, Sales $5.93B Beat $5.77B Estimate Sees Q4 2022 Revenue $6B Vs $6.09B Est

Missed adjusted EPS and rev expectations but sales beat. They're clearing a lot of 3000 series inventory this Q.

Let me sign up to pay 65x earnings for this disaster.

That's trailing, the forward PE on it is 36. Still high, but not as insane.

I see 50 forward. And the expected for next year looks very optimist at best, delusional more likely.

Where are you seeing the forward PE as 50? [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA&p=d](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA&p=d) It's being listed here as 36.55 for the forward PE.

That’s next year, rather than the forward 12 months, Q4 2022 through Q3 2023.

Yeah, their forward PE. There's literally either foward or trailing PE...

Not sure what you’re saying. Forward 12 month is at 50 as of the close. 2023 is 34.

I'm not sure if I follow you. As far as I know, there are only 2 PE's, it's either trailing or forward. [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp) >The current stock price (P) can be found simply by plugging a stock’s ticker symbol into any finance website, and although this concrete value reflects what investors must currently pay for a stock, the EPS is a slightly more nebulous figure. > >EPS comes in two main varieties. TTM is a Wall Street acronym for "trailing 12 months". This number signals the company's performance over the past 12 months. The second type of EPS is found in a company's earnings release, which often provides EPS guidance. This is the company's best-educated guess of what it expects to earn in the future. These different versions of EPS form the basis of trailing and forward P/E, respectively. As far I know, please correct me if I'm wrong, but you are now paying 36X foward earnings for NVDA. So basically you are paying 50 dollars for everyone 1 dollars in earnings right now or you are paying 36 dollars for everyone 1 dollar of future earnings of NVDA. On average, the semi's have a much higher PE ratio, since they tend to have higher margins and grow pretty fast. I believe the 5 year industry average for PE in the semi's is around 24. [https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&v=120&o=pe#google\_vignette](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=industry&v=120&o=pe) At least as of now, the industry average is for forward PE is 20. So yeah, NVDA is expensive, but there is an argument about their data center chips being the best and somewhat of a moat.

You can talk about a P/E over any time period. TTM is the previous 4 quarters, which corresponds to a calendar year after Q4, not a calendar year in any other quarter. Forward 12 months is what most brokers will quote and is based on the next 4 quarters. So in NVDA’s case, that was average estimate of 0.69, 0.76, 0.88, 1.02 for Q3 2022 through Q2 2023. Which is pretty much 50 on the nose at the closing price. What Finviz is reporting is the next calendar year, in other words skipping Q3 and Q4 this year, which strikes me as rather odd and not very meaningful.

There’s a long line for that

Yeah, I don't get how there's still bids above $100 for this stock.

Their datacenter growth eclipsed their gaming revenue in less than 7 years, and is estimated to hold 30% of the market right now. They have 70% of the market available as opportunity, in their highest margin products, where they are uncontested. Does that change your opinion? If not, why?

It doesn’t convince me because you already have to pay for it. And frankly, I’ve heard these hyper growth stories many times before. People convince themselves the growth rates will hold up forever and they’re just not going to.

I get that sentiment, but at the same time, they've grown from nothing in DC to 30% market share and more than 8 Billion on revenue in less than seven years. Doesn't that seem to support the hyper growth thesis and valuation? And, all of this says nothing for gaming, automotive, etc. areas they also have.

Like I said, these growth rates will not continue. The data center talk about NVDA is not much different than TSLA a few years ago. Bulls insisted than there would never be any competition, the market would grow forever without any hiccups and Tesla would capture all of it. Now of course, we know that is not going to be the case as everyone and their mother is getting into the space. It’s just not going to last, and what will happen is, you’ll get to a point data center growth slows substantially. Due to a recession and reduced capex, or competitors increasingly entering the space, or technology simply develops away from using GPUs and finds something better. The problem with stories like this is you get a couple really good years, everyone works themselves into a frenzy and now you have to pay basically for hyper growth forever if you want to own it. Inevitably, it doesn’t last, and everyone is sitting around wondering why they’re paying 50x earnings.

That cements it because there isn't much growth opportunity left and high rates are going to remove some customers, I will stand by my statement that it's only a buy below $100.

70% of the market left "isn't much growth opportunity"? Did you misunderstand? I don't follow.

Not only that, almost every company that deals with data center is still seeing insane growth. MSFT and AWS were a little light, but even IBM is seeing 16% growth in their cloudbase. Top that with companies liket ANET, who are suppliers to data centers are still seeing growth and confirming guidance I'm a software engineer and there is going to be need for more and more computing space. Almost every company ships new features on a weekly/bi-weekly base. Any new feature needs new APIs, new db's, new services, etc.

I'm already paying for that in the 60x earnings. I don't think it's worth that in this market.

Fair enough. I think that's why the price is so high; people see the potential to double DC revenue, up to triple it, where it's already more valuable than gaming, in the 7-8 billion dollar range.

Who knows, if anyone doubts whether we’re in a bubble, you have only to look at this stock.

The market doesn’t seem sure of how to react

fake rally in chips? doesn't seem like high conviction

Got stopped out of some amd calls a bit earlier.

Bought some TSM today

That Sonos YoY inventory increase of 145% oh nooooo. Brutal quarter. Revenue declined YoY by 12%. Gross margin fell YoY from 46.4% to 39.2%. Operating and net margins worsened even more. FCF/S was the worst in at least 12 quarters, coming in at -39.6%. What an awful capper for their fiscal year. Edit: next year's rev guidance is for $1.75B at the midpoint. They just finished the year with $1.752B in revenue, so they're saying next year will be no growth. Ouch. Management warned things would get bad after Q3 so hopefully no shareholders are surprised by this.

Cisco Q1 23 Earnings: \-Adj EPS: $0.86 (exp $0.84) \-Revenue: $13.60B (exp $13.31B) \-Sees FY Revenue +4.5% To +6.5% (exp +5.1%) Looks to be up around 4% in the AH's

Anyone here have a position in FAST? Another company I started looking into today.

What should I do with $POWW lol

You should have bought actual ammo.

Making brass takes a lot of copper which EV corporate welfare is subsidizing so that does seem like a good play. It also uses zinc and lead.

I just meant that buying actual ammo 2 years ago you would be able to sell it for 2 or 3 x what you paid for it. Instead, $POWW is down 80%.

Pinned here until jobs report.

When is that coming out?

What target lost to theft is actually smaller than what Meta is going to have to pay in lawsuits this year. Yes I know Tgt doesnt have nearly Meta's cashflow but I just think these two similar unforeseeable costs are interesting, thats all.

This recession is only getting worse: > The [GDPNow model](https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow) estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.4 percent on November 16, up from 4.0 percent on November 9. 4.4% growth in Q4? Make it stop!

What was it through all of 2020 and 2021? I mean I can google I guess

Basically across the board lower earnings but massive gdp growth. This dichotomy is hurting my head and I’m not going to understand how the two jive

A lot of this has to do with the extremely strong US dollar due to the Fed frontloading rates ahead of everyone else. Once the dollar stabilizes and everyone else catches up, the GDP readings will be substantially less.

Why would the dollar stabilizing lower GDP readings? I see dollars impacting the earnings of large, multinational corporations, but is the net effect so obviously positive/negative on US GDP?

The trade imbalance. Strong dollar means importing less and exporting more, even if the actual quantities don’t change. This has been a big story of GDP all year, along with inventories. The negative reading we had in Q1 was almost entirely due to a large trade deficit. But what does that mean? It means the US was importing a lot more than exporting. And that was due to relative economic strength. US economy was red hit while other economies were cooling. So the GDP headline number basically told the opposite sorry of what was happening. The same is true last quarter. The Us economy is cooling, and what that did was improve the trade deficit, which made GDP look better. Basically, the headline GDP number is a pretty shit metric for gauging the strength of the economy.

It’s the other way around… Strong dollar means imports are cheaper. On the other hand exported American goods become much more expensive in foreign markets.

This is interesting thanks for writing it out

Also he’s completely wrong. Strong dollar = less competitive exports. e.g. an American product which costs $1 is now 1€ instead of 0.9€. Guess what happens?

GDP is pretty heavily affected by trade balance and forex has a big hand in that. To me seems like GDP growth is largely due to the strengthening dollar at this point. As it weakens again we'll see that effect shift and become a GDP headwind.

Why did Target get hit with theft so much worse than Walmart?

Target has a lot of "city" layout stores that are smaller and only about 40,000 sq ft so they're getting hit hard by crime like the one here in Seattle. I don't think Walmart has any stores like that.

Wow, TGT estimates a $600M hit to profits due to organized retail crime. I've never stolen a thing in my life maybe that's why I'm so poor. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-organized-retail-crime-400-million-profits-113006396.html

I'm not sure if I buy that. Their stores have been really weird the last six months. Last time I went about a month ago, there were empty shelves and out of stock items everywhere. It seems really like a function of their management more than they are leading on. I'm sure theft is an issue but is it really the reason their business is suffering?

I mean they said it themselves not like they or I am making up numbers here. It wasn't my intent (and I don't think it's TGT's intent either) to say this is why their business is doing poorly. My intent by initially linking the article is to illustrate where we are at as a country/society. This behavior is becoming epidemic across the entire United States and has echoes of late 20's early 30's.

AXON +98% in 6 mo - very overbought at this point but last two quarters have been very good.

MM refuse to let market drop SPX hard rejects 3960 every time. stale price action. how long can this go on when the fed is gonna start trimming the fat

Fed's Daly: 4.75-5.25% is a reasonable expectation for Fed terminal rate. About what I expected, I think the multiples compression from Fed hiking has been priced in if that's where we ultimately land, now we just need to see how earnings hold up over the next few Q's.

How can you look at bond yields and think this has been priced in?

Well they were priced in a couple weeks ago, the 2 year was over 4.6% at one point. Not so much now that the terminal rate seems pretty agreed upon and people are looking past it for when the pivot could happen. TLT's chart tells the story there.

What do you mean? The bond yields have plummeted, what do you expect them to do?

Then the SP is overpriced. Right now the PE is like 18? When you can get a risk free rate of 5%. And thats if earnings don't drop in 2023 but every company is guiding for a reduction.

As I said, depends on how earnings hold up. Certain sectors will be fine, others not so much. The rates pressure on labor and earnings definitely hasn't fully set in yet. I wouldn't be buying the index at 4k on S&P but am keeping an eye out for good individual stock buys mainly in high growth/tech that get hit on earnings warnings/revisions down.

Yeah i think some stocks have bottomed out or close to bottoming.

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That's my view at this point, staying patient on buys due to earnings risk.

Waller Says A 50 Bps Hike Would Still Be Significant Tightening Won’t Make a Judgement on Dec. Move Until See More Data Could Be Comfortable With Half-Point Rate Rise in December

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Fragmentation on how aggressively to raise rates sure, but they're all more or less on the same page for the terminal rate and that rates need to remain high for a long time.

2yr 10yr is the lowest since 1980s and 3month 10yr is at 2008 level. Household debt, CC debt(up 15% in 1yr) all time high, personal saving lowest since 2008. Yet people think the worst is over. Ecomony is a time bomb right now and waiting for something to blow up.

Savings and credit card is almost exactly inline, albeit slightly above still, from 2019. Just an FYI.

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Your data on credit card debt is not inflation or growth adjusted so you really can’t make any meaningful assumptions based on it. But as long as you know the “truth” that’s fine…

Inflation decelerating is the first step, next we deal with the slowing from the rate hikes (most iffy part for earnings and labor market), at some point during the growth slowing stage, when inflation is forgotten and everyone is more concerned with growth, stocks will bottom. Short term T Bills are looking like a decent bet at this point. Unless we see a soft landing for earnings and jobs, in which case stocks were cheap the past month.

America is #1 at can kicking

Oh fuck oh jeez

I wonder how much travel might have impacted TGT as well. We saw travel hit like pre-pandemic highs, just curious to see if people possibly spent more on trips this past summer/fall and that's also hurting some companies.

Is NVDA going to shit the bed today?

Possibly, MU came out with an announcement about lowering production by 20%. Earnings are also coming out today.

Why are Google and Microsoft up while all other big tech stocks are down?

Thoughts on KLIC ?

as a trader, do you think today is a good day to buy TGT?

I feel like a lot of the dip buying already occurred. I keep looking at the chart and it looks like it’s going to make a sharp move up and then it doesn’t come. Who knows maybe they’ll shoot up a couple percent by the end of the day, for me it’s not really worth the risk I miss the days when the economy ironically was much better and stocks would randomly go down on no news. I liked buying those dips much better!

MSFT green What news came out?

Some collab with NVDA but I guess the real reason is that it didn't rally nearly as much as other tech stocks in the past weeks.

Remember just a week ago any suggestion the rally would be short lived was downvoted to death? Guess what? It WAS short lived.

Your puts last week got wrecked, we understand.

We're barely even down at all lol what are you talking about

literally no one said that. You're being disingenuous.

Literally no one said the rally would be short lived? A few did, but were labelled negative and downvoted. Just highlighting the childishness of this sub.

There was one slightly red day. It’s like saying that the bear market is over whenever the market went up for a day over the past couple of months despite going down much more the day before/after. Silly…

You showed them!

Stocks don’t go straight up, it is still a bear market rally

Of course it’s a bear market rally, but any suggestion it was anything but full bull from here was criticised by the loonies

It’s funny how there are people exactly like you on both sides and they keep arguing with each other

Spy is down 0.4% lmao, even in the craziest rallies ever they don't go up every single day forever.

Hey Google, what's a market pullback? Lol

Say what you will about the corntards, how it's worthless and not an inflation hedge. But the Fed controlling the CBDC is another scary step to dystopia.

is it? seems a lot better than a group of unaccountable bros. is tether actually still backed by anything? it's a ship just waiting to sink.

One being shitty doesn't make an even worse idea better.

CBDC is what will kill Tether if nothing else will.

Market is relatively calm today. Feels so weird after so much turmoil day after day for so long.

Which of these do you think are the most recession proof? HSY, K, CPB, WMT, KHC, GIS, MNST

Why not include healthcare stocks. UNH is probably going to withstand this bear market. In fact I see more suicide hotline threads in bear markets and recessions then you see in bull markets.

Of those, I only own HSY so I'd vote HSY. You can go back and look at how they all performed during the great recession.

Question for anybody from the before times. If interest rates stayed stable for 6 months would stock discussions start being about fundamentals rather than macro bullshit? Or would it just be speculation about recession or politics instead?

For the near term I think fundamentals will be discussed when a stock has an irrational dip and we want to tell other people to buy it (ex HD a month ago). Unfortunately, we’re still in buy the dip mode which means that most of the dips that last for more than a couple hours are very warranted. And then it’s hard to discuss those because there’s no point in discussing something that I do not recommend!

The "macro bullshit" never goes away. Its effect gets reduced when things are in a stable state and expected to stay in a stable state. If interest rates stayed stable for 6 months then the problem would be that the marfket would still expect them to drop considerably to a lower, long-term stable rate. Also, there is still an issue about a recession, and what is expected to happen with earnings. Even though earnings are company by company, macro factors can still affect them.

I feel like fundamentals investing is less a thing now. Everyone has pretty much settled on the idea that if you want slow methodical growth then index stocks beat individual stocks, and if you are investing in individual stocks you generally are looking for some sort of wild run away that beats the market expectations. like there is less use in focusing in on one stock to try and get like a 4% return. Since you can just put that money in VOO and probably do better, but if you are picking a single stock hoping it's the next apple, that sort of stuff doesn't really show in fundamentals much, big dramatic swings usually exist more from sentiment than anything real.

TBH, fundamentals haven’t mattered much for a decade. You have to go back to prior to the GFC to remember when people really focused on individual fundamentals over how much money is the Fed printing.

Nonstop asking and speculation for rate drops. The market is hooked on easy money.

opened a small Nvidia put play for earnings. Stock has melted up way too much, is still overvalued, discretionary spending (overpriced graphics cards) sales will go down. Also, I basically guaranteed a tech rally starting tomorrow. thank you for my sacrifice.

The goat, my man you called a 9 month bull market to the day.

effing hilarious. luckily I closed out my put position early. but shifted to safe plays stocks that all went down (disney/3m/etc) while tech has mooned again)

Thanks bro

With all due respect, it's already down significantly YTD. !RemindMe 7 hours

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Came across an interesting stock in my screener today. Started reading the last earnings call transcript, seems pretty interesting. Anyone here invested in CSL or look into them before?

They've always been a staple for growth dividend stocks imo

The sales growth and ROC seem pretty solid. I like boring companies that make things and make money. Just haven't heard of them until now and started looking into them as a long term investment.

Yeah they've always kinda just been in the background, tons of pensions hold it. It's a nice safe boring company imo

Bond yields are dropping sharply, which is sad for me because I was about to load up on them. Do you guys think we might have peaked in bond yield? I think theres a chance they drop back again due to the fact that inflation is still somewhat high and FED interest rate isn't at peak yet. What do you think?

There will be constant pressure on bonds for as long as QT remains in effect. It'll just depend on the demand for bonds everywhere else outside the Fed. That said, I expect that there will be a lot of demand especially with a recession looming.

Interesting, thanks

If I was a betting man I'd say they're likely to go up again.

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I don't know. It seems like a pretty hard cap like 3500 seems like a hard floor. This market has pretty much gone nowhere since June. It has been a seesaw between 3500-4000. Rinse and repeat.

Think it's just a gap fill. We might retest 400 again today, hopefully it holds.

All 3 indexes Red, DXY Red, US 10 yr Red; Gold Green, the Euro Green. People here are prolly tired of me talking about Gold but I've been right on the bounce there. I think it maybe time to look to international stocks, especially EM markets over US stocks for outperformance in the near term.

Oh jeez, oh fuck

is that a meme I'm not familiar with or something?

I dont know I think hes annoying

poor earnings at target means rate increases are working and inflation is coming down which could lead to less severe rate increases. people don't scale back on target trips unless they really have to. we're on the downhill slope.

And they don't scale back on Walmart trips even if they have to? I mean either you're kind of right and people are shifting to cheaper retailers or this is due to some issue specific to Target. We might need to wait for Kroger, Costco etc. earnings to figure that out.

Walmart is one of the biggest grocers in the country whereas Target is primarily clothing, homegoods, and discretionary items with a token grocery section. OP's argument is that discretionary spending is falling, Walmart (and the other business you listed) aren't as sensitive to decreases in discretionary spending as Target is. So Target is a better leading indicator than they are.

All that based on one retailer’s earnings?

Apparently target is the canary in the coal mine

for the specific stock, sure, there are other factors. they could be voluntarily eating increased costs to keep prices low to retain customers. they also had inventory that needed to move. but overall yea, target sells consumer basics on a very large scale. poor earnings is definitely a sign that things have cooled off significantly. people don't scale back on target trips until they really need to scale back.

OCSL continues to thrive in a high rate environment and pay out juicy dividends.

What's everyone's opinions on Warner Brothers/Discovery? I think they have a ton of value long term, but worried about how ad sales in the future and their wholesale destruction of intellectual property will affect them in the short term.

I’ll give the opposite opinion here I love the company and I also hold Disney. I think when it comes to media stocks it’s just important to have multiple streams of revenue. To compare Warner bros to lions gate or even paramount isn’t even remotely fair lol. Im not going to say I think they are going to 10x but I also highly doubt that Disney and Warner bros fail to beat the sandp for the next 5-10 years at these prices when they eventually sort out their messes. When it comes to Warner bros I won’t even hit on the points of how they are forecasting 3.5 billion of synergy’s or how they are in a quarter of the country’s Netflix is in with hbo max but I think how they manage their game side is what I’m watching. If when they sort out this mess and pay down some debt and zaslav is ready to channel is Iger like he said by ether bolstering gaming which I would love or potentially merger with universal I would also love. They really ether need to build up the gaming side or get some amusement park exposure like universal studios. I believe this would really help expand there revenue streams for the future once cable slows down being the cash cow. So for the summary WBD is a great value at these prices for a responsible position size for the short to mid term. Once the advertising market calms down and they activate some synergy’s and pay some debt I wouldn’t doubt by 2025 they could easily be 25-30 a share. Long term for me to continue to hold after that I really need to see ether a large push into gaming or a merge with universal to get parks and actually good kids studio in dream works. If they fail to do these two things or sell if the gameing division in 2025ish I will most likely sell if they haven’t been bought out by then.

Absolutely no interest in media stocks and I remain perplexed why people have had so much interest. Wrote negatively about it not long after WBD was spun. You have a CEO that was paid an absurd amount for a decade of mediocre performance at DISCA. DISCA didn't do anything for years, VIAC nothing. LGF has been a terrible stock. If they aren't rejected because of antitrust, maybe you get a deal or two but that's just hope and no idea whether that would happen higher or even lower or at all. Maybe you get a good bounce at some point if things get better in the economy, maybe one of these get bought but beyond that, there's an amount of excitement about these names that I think is odd given the history of the sector and not sure why the next 10 years will be any different for these names than the last 10. Lastly, terrible stocks to own in a downturn because ad rev. You have a sector that's terrible when things are bad and when things are good they're "eh."

I think people like to do the "I like this media so I'll invest in the company" which doesn't really ever make sense. Putting investment money into a company if if likes some movie you like.

Hasn’t Viac consistently had good earnings despite horrible sentiment? Don’t get the disconnect between the earnings and the sentiment. They keep posting good numbers and then everyone says oh my God it’s so horrible. But at the same time they’ll be some tech stock like Docu and everyone claps when they earn a penny per share

Bond yields are falling precipitously despite an aggressive tightening schedule. It's way too early to tell obviously, but a part of me thinks that institutional recession preparation is about to go underway. Going forward, what would finally happen is that bonds and stocks will begin to trade inversely to each other than in tandem like this year.

Bull market my ass