Hi guys! Anybody knows what happens to my under the water twitter put options once it goes private?

How is the fucking Dow green wtf

Nothing to do with fundamentals. DXY and yields dumping provides tailwind to equities.

Why has the American dollar been dropping recently?

I'll only buy in when I see that stocks stay flat or go up on bad news. The GOOGL and MSFT moves tell me that we are not there yet.

What are good buys right now? This are at a discount and i want to an low entry. Tech eventually always goes up right? Semiconductos specifically as everything important uses it.

i wouldn't be surprised if this stupid market wiped out the aftermarket losses in GOOG and MSFT tomorrow. are you feeling lucky enough to buy the dip?

All Google has to do is raise their revenue cut from YouTubers and they’ve fixed their problems. Maybe reduce staff as well.

lol. watch as people digest these earnings misses over the next few days, figure out that its expected, and things come right back up. its so ridiculous how the sentiment appears on this sub. always doom and gloom. "beginning of the end for big tech". more like tired bag holders being salty. don't get me wrong, google needs to start paying a damn dividend if they want to keep investors.

I really need J Powell to make another Jackson Hole speech soon lol.

What are your non tech picks right now? Or just stay the course with VTI and chill?

I'm buying tech (or the index) here, other people can have fun in commodities, manufacturing, and banking. Don't know it well enough to buy with conviction and it seems more risky in a slowdown than mature tech with a solid moat.

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Surprised it didn’t tank more tbh. It’s looking really bad. Perhaps tomorrow it retests 52 week lows.

Google is done. This is the start of the end for the tech giant unless they make some drastic changes. Awful CEO, terrible management team and company culture.

Yes, because everyone will flock to awesome services like Bing and Rumble.......

Bing! Said no one ever

AskJeeves is back baby

Carol Burnett says so.

One of the major complaints by their employees is the budget cut for holiday parties LOL

Most of the employees lean young and have never worked through a real recession.

For the most part white collar workers have always been shielded from the effects of a recession.

Opened a position and bought some shares of GOOG today AH. Plan to DCA on the way down in small increments then ride it back to up to Valhalla. I feel weird that I’m investing with a strategy now… maybe I’m getting smarter!

I did the same. I had buys at $98 and $97 today.

Sounds like a solid plan in my book. I'm sitting on 80 shares average buy in at 130. Not the least concerned but I still wish I was in your situation. I bought 4 shares of AMZN during the covid crash and it's still one of my best investments. Buying great insanely profitable companies at a discount is how it's done.

Itll probably go down more in premarket then catch a bid during market hours.

It’s ok, I’m going looooong here so not too worried about the immediate price. Of course if it drops to 50 tomorrow I might poop my pants.

If it’s down AH, you can bet it’ll be even further down tomorrow.

This is a terrible strategy. When megacap tech is missing earnings, it means that further downside is to come. You should wait a week at least before jumping it to see where things settle, but if you don’t like money then by all means just keep buying the dip.

It really is a nice time to invest internationally when you think about what you're able to buy with USD. "A Big Mac costs ¥410 ($2.75) in Tokyo versus $5.15 in the US, so at current exchange rates you get twice as much for your money." Eventually this has to get arbitraged away, otherwise you can buy a Big Mac in Japan, sail across the Pacific Ocean, and sell it and obtain 2 Big Macs, and now you can become obese (or wealthy if you replace Big Macs with Japanese stocks). [Exchange rate history](https://i.imgur.com/hqWILG0.png) > Half of Japanese companies are trading below the book value of their assets. [Article with these facts](https://www.ft.com/content/ed63bdfc-0c23-4b70-890c-21650e398e55)

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Escape from Tarkov More seriously, I am interested in buying copper stocks along with more of my international small cap value ETFs which have heavy exposure to Japan. I think commodities have huge upside when the USD stops strengthening and the macro headwinds ease. Especially copper/oil & gas/other metals/maybe coal... I know there a bunch if mining options in Canada, S. Africa, Australia, etc.

The level of hysteria in this sub is bonkers. People screaming tech is dead as the Nasdaq plummets to... this morning's price.

It’s actually below it right now.

I’m a bear and love the topic and have some money at stake so keep checking in, but Even I don’t get the “paradigm shift” stuff because MSFT did just ok. Edit: I see more “Google is done” drama. They are the internet. It’s not some random platform. Why are people so dramatic and why is the resident bear having to speak pro-tech stocks!!!!

The reason is because cloud services is becoming a primary driver of revenue for Microsoft; essentially the future of Microsoft. The days of making money off selling an OS is dwindling. They have Xbox/azure and the gaming side was down on revenue as well.

So tired of watching "a day in the life" of a big tech employee burn my cash away.

so, you can watch "Day in the Life of a Japanese Carpenter" from paolo from tokyio (great video)

I watched like a few mins of it. I think his first vid I watched was "day in the life of ramen guy" and was amazed at the work/diligence/hours that guy put into his shop.

Any predictions on how much further Microsoft and Google fall? I can begrudgingly deal with the aftermarket drop, but I don’t remember past seasons when they’ve missed, what happens next. Most of my investing career i owned boomer stocks that behaved differently and would keep dropping precipitously unless they beat earnings

$185 MSFT, $85 GOOGL

Where do you get MSFT level from? What is your math or logic

I’m going all in if that happens

I would buy but not all in. It’s possible that they trail the index in the next decade with slowing growth since they’re so mature. To surpass the index two cycles in a row is a tough ask. Great moats though.

[Looking at this graph](https://i.imgur.com/kzH4sS2.png), it seems more of a temporary slowdown after insane growth rather than a descent into long-term stagnancy.

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No not immediately

I doubt it. They don't even update mutual fund closing prices till around 6-7 PM. By tomorrow everything should be good.

what should i set limit buys at for GOOG & AMZN. seems like 95 & 115 are too high

Sell cash secured puts at a price you want.

Correct me if I'm wrong. Google's business is mostly ad revenue. From search + YouTube. TikTok has surpassed viewers compared to YouTube. MSFT revenue comes from selling products. Windows + Azure + XBox + Halolens and a few others . Also MSFT is the only of the FAANGM that doesn't sell to consumers. Their clients are other businesses.

10% of Google's Revenue is Google Cloud 10% of Revenue is from Youtube Ads 7% of Revenue is Google Hardware (chromebook, pixel phones, Nest doorbell, pixel watch and tablet) 3% of Revenue is Youtube Premium/ Youtube TV subscriptions, Google Fi Phone Plan, Google Fiber Cable, Waymo, Deepmind, etc. 20% of Revenue is from Google Play Store and they take 15% the first year up to 1 million dollars then 30% the following years. 50% of Revenue is from Google Search Ads 70% of smartphones globally all use Android which gives Google a network effect with preinstalled apps like google maps, youtube, google play store, gmail, that generate insane amounts of ad revenue. I think Google owns 10% of SpaceX/Starlink as well.

I use an Android + DRIVE (which is confusing cuz when you want directions to drive you use MAPS). In that breakup 60% of revenue is from ads .

MSFT sells to consumers. XBOX Windows Surface devices Office All the crap they try to sell with every windows update.

Yes but the bulk of their revenue is from business clients

AAPL setting up for a nice correction. Pumps 10% over the last week on no news. Pumps today despite the bad news from Corning pre-market. Doesn't drop much AH despite poor earning/guidance from MSFT/GOOG. Have you see an iPhone 14 in real life? I haven't. Low 130s/high 120s next week, bleeds to under 100 over the next 6 months.

Considering apple quietly launched new products without the glitz this week and raised prices, I’m assuming they are going to miss this week and are trying to setup/prop/save the next earnings.

Yep. Raising prices on theirs services (Apple TV and Music) is a sign. Plus the new App Store rules made to cut into ad revenue. "On Monday, Apple quietly updated its App Store rules to require that iOS developers use in-app purchases — and thereby give Apple 30 percent — on “sales of ‘boosts’ for posts in a social media app.” This primarily affects Facebook and Instagram, which let people pay to boost the reach of their posts. It’s the first time Apple has directly taxed advertising in iOS apps."

Do AMZN now

AMZN \~100 next week, bleeds to 75 over the next 6 months. Thanks for subscribing to my newsletter.

Please tell me about me and my gf!

You guys get married next week. Have 3 kids over the next 6 months.

> next **6** months Hmmmm

Just dumped her

MSFT getting fukt

Levels not seen since... Friday.

7%+ down is pretty significant. It won’t be there for much longer as the rest of market goes down.

so, i'm back to my question from last week (don't know if i said it here or somewhere else), isn't coming in under earnings a sign that the interest hikes might be working? wouldn't poor earnings pressure companies to lower prices to bring up sales?

Yeah but I think the earnings of some industries are more relevant than others. Like housing/auto/construction/commodity/banking is more tied to the "real" economy. Is Google's ad revenue that relevant to the CPI and GDP compared to... Used car sales or home construction activity? Edit: Someone should fact check me on this, I'm semi-confident this makes sense

That makes sense. Still, could be a good sign for the next cpi regardless of the industry.

The next CPI is currently forecast to be +0 78 according to nowcast which is usually accurate https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

Yes, it's a sign growth is slowing and the rate hikes are having an effect

Time to buy PSQ to hedge. Use 1% below today's low to set stop loss.

Market swings are bonkers. I would not touch options in this environment. People rushing to buy puts are just as dumb as bulls buying the dip. MSFT literally touched $218 last week and today it was $250 and after market $233. This is badshit crazy swing for $2T company. I am amazed how much money is flowing in the system. Both sides getting burned tbh, DCA is a way to go.

You buy puts on up days in bear markets. It’s pretty simple, really. Today was a gift

LONG dated puts that is, anything less than a month has the risk of getting torched by a bear rally.


Agreed. Isn’t DCA bullish by default? Or is reality bullish…

It is, but DCA at least you are not trying to time the market. So what I am trying to say, don't think this is the bottom and unload all your ammo. Instead DCA, because the swings are all over the place.

Pretty much. That’s one part of Boglehead dogma I don’t agree with. I came into decent dry powder from a sale end of last year. Put 1/3 into VTSAX right away, wish I didn’t..but would feel a whole lot worse if I lump summed it in.

QQQ gave away a day of gains in AH. META tomorrow, hoping for the worst. Really a shame but I am feeling a tad bearish.

I’m curious why the DOW is holding up so well all year, it’s barely down -10% or thereabouts from ATH, despite P/E ratios for many of the DOW companies being way higher than the S&P average P/E. McDonalds has a 31 P/E, Disney has a 55 P/E, Walmart has a 26 P/E etc etc. If tech’s huge pullback is expected because of high P/E, shouldn’t the same be happening to the DOW companies? Surprised that i would’ve lost much less money had I invested in just the DOW companies rather than SPY or QQQ.

its full of defensive stocks and that won't change. its no big mystery. The S&P doesn't always outperform.

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14% I believe

Look at the historical PE's of the DOW companies. Some the name you mentioned, have high PE's becuase people moved into the names as a defensive move.

>Some the name you mentioned, have high PE's becuase people moved into the names as a defensive move. good point

Pretty interesting when companies release forecasts/guidance during earning calls (instead of in the official release). Was pretty surprised by that sudden MSFT drop - just shows that you're not safe until the end of the earnings call.

I'd ague most the movements are noise until the actual call.

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[https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html](https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html) MSFT is 10.57% The two GOOGL's are like \~7% combined.

>What happened, why is there greenest dildo ever ? I asked that at start of the day and now after hours it sinks to something more reasonable. Anyway wild market

People have been treating mega cap tech like it wouldn't be cyclical, and paying accordingly. The problem is they haven't really had a down cycle in 14 years to test that.

Wouldn’t that imply that it’s not cyclical?

No, I mean there hasn't been a broad down cycle since 2008. Most of the recent mega cap growth has happened since then. They are somewhat untested in. Broad slowdown.

MSFT -8% after a beat??? Come on. Ok Azure missed but it’s ridiculous that MSFT is down more than Google which actually MISSED. Fuck me this really shows that it’s pointless for me to try picking individual stocks. Nothing ever moves the way I think the fundamentals mean it will

I’m hoping someone comes in and goes “it’s just the algos selling” to make me feel better

Guidance counts a lot more than earnings. The market is forward looking.

Poor forecast and more currency headwinds Microsoft Expects Q2 Currency To Cut Sales Growth By 5%, Forecasts Weak PC, Ad Demand To Continue In Q2

But haven’t currency headwinds been known about for months now? Everyone knew the strong dollar was severely denting overseas earnings, look at the amount of chat about it on Reddit, if even us plebs knew about it there’s no logic that the ‘expert’ analysts at institutions couldn’t predict it

They had the issue last time. Sounds like they might just be bad at hedging, since AAPL didn't have the issue. Also, MSFT is still trading at a high premium than GOOGL, so it's probably going to feel more pain on the slowing growth.

Feels like bad luck that there’s just no way for retail investors to avoid. You could’ve done all the DD in the world and somehow guessed the top and bottom numbers correctly, but there’s just no way you could predict that MSFT would *still* fail to properly hedge when others like AAPL do. Everyone knew the strong dollar would decrease foreign earnings if not hedged, surely the ‘experts’ in these megacorps’ finance departments should know this too…

That's the risk of individual stocks. It's the reason why the common person shouldn't stock pick but just index. If someone screws up, at least there's hundreds of others that might not.

VTSAX and chill. At least you’ll spend less on booze and therapy.

I'm all vtsax and I'm also dead this year lol... granted not -50%

There's more than just miss vs no miss.

What is? Google missed BIG and so it’s logical that it falls 6%, on the basis that ad spending will fall during a recession. It’s also logical that other ad companies like Meta also fall 4-5% alongside Google. Microsoft beat and only Azure missed, and Microsoft isn’t dependent on ad spending like Google. Yet Microsoft is down more than Google? That makes no sense.

Because msft is already valued higher. So bigger drop.

Rip tech

tech is back where it was last week.

Msft down 8% now. Wtf is going on

Earnings call must be going bad

They provided guidance on the call

and it was bad

TikTok first threw a wrench in META business. Now surpassing YouTube

People spend more time on TikTok than YouTube now?

time is irrelevant. effective ad sales is where it's at.

Heard it yesterday when they were talking about Tik Tok Boom documentary

Bloodbath in the after hours right now. MSFT beat, did they give poor guidance?

Apparently they beat overall, but their cloud business which is their main growth driver, missed. So that is also likely adding to the bloodbath.

Yes

yes

what do you guys think about this : "The next True Market Leaders on the next bull market will NOT be Msft, Goog, Aapl, Nflx, Meta, Tsla, or Amzn. I do favor some IPO's over the past 2 years as they set up and new ones that come next year. Definitely focus on triple digit numbers which are scarce." [https://twitter.com/RoyLMattox/status/1585024203027206145](https://twitter.com/RoyLMattox/status/1585024203027206145)

Law of averages. The leaders for one bull market are rarely the leaders for the next.

Heads up, YES you can time the market. it's going down into the fed meeting next week. puts.

Why aren't you a billionaire? Why are you choosing to be so poor if you can time the market?

Gotta love that the smartest trader on earth is hanging out in r/stocks 😂

WIRE finally reported: GAAP EPS of $9.97 beats by $3.15, revenue of $762.36M beats by $69.23M Third Quarter and YTD 2022 Highlights Third Quarter Earnings per diluted share of $9.97; YTD Earnings per diluted share of $28.57 Third Quarter Net income of $191.8 million; YTD Net income of $563.8 million Gross Profit of 39.3% in the third quarter of 2022; 37.2% YTD in 2022 Copper volume sold increased 12.9% over third quarter of 2021; increased 7.9% YTD over On my favorite things: >Our balance sheet remains very strong. We have no long-term debt, and our revolving line of credit remains untapped. We had $573.6 million in cash at the end of the quarter. During the third quarter, we repurchased 785,747 shares of our common stock. On a year-to-date basis we repurchased 1,893,769 shares of our common stock for a total cash outlay of $225.2 million. Since the first quarter of 2020, we have repurchased 2,810,576 shares of our common stock at an average price of $102.90. We also declared a $0.02 cash dividend during the quarter. ​ Looks to be up 6% in the AH's.

texas instruments, visa, google, all bad news reload your shorts and puts this deadcat bounce is overdue for pullback ​ >Visa’s Spending Growth Slows as Consumers Are Hit by Inflation > >Visa and its rivals have seen spending increases cool with inflation soaring to once-in-a-generation levels. > >Texas Instruments’ Forecast Signals Chip Demand Slump Is Spreading

Visa beat their earnings and are increasing their dividends by 20%, what are you talking about?

I was just coming to post this lol

Google needs to move out of their parents basement. their mega growth era is over. its time to start giving investors a reason to hold the stock. currently i can't think of one.

I'm disappointed by the Q's topline, but I'm staying long with a 99.28 cost basis. They bought Mandiant for 5.4 billion cash this Q, I'd expect that to hit overall eps but helpful for gcp adoption going forward. forex effects also hit eps hard (hopefully trending in the right way based on what we've been seeing the past few weeks). Youtube revs down, but Shorts with rev sharing will hopefully drag content creators over. GCP rev growth 50% and operating loss is even with 2021. They're already slowing/cutting headcount and cutting projects like stadia so we'll see how things pan out. I'm still optimistic on AI and cloud over the next decade or so and that's the main growth driver for Google.

Dang, and I was happy with my 108

I've been in and out of google the past year or so to swing trade but see a good opportunity long term from here. I think we'll both be alright

$99 cost basis good for you. Where the hell did all the people buying during the stock split hype go lol. It was in the $120-$135 range in those days.

Sold or started ignoring their port for personal preservation probably. It'll come back eventually but some peeps who bought around 140-150 are gonna need to be patient.

I don't know if its just their earnings calls but the company and leadership seem completely directionless. Got them on my naughty list for sure, must do better.

Agreed.

Massive buybacks

And GCP growth

right. that only works for so long. eventually people will want a dividend.

Is there news on semis? SOXL is having a bad AH

TXN lowered guidance. Probably impacting the rest

Thanks. Looks like it puts going to be an ugly day for the market tomorrow. I'm sure meta will only make worse with their earnings

Why did apple shoot up

They like drugs?

Started investing in mid 2021 My picks are GOOGL, AMD, TGT, F, and SOFI Aside from SOFI, I felt pretty confident about these long-ish term 2-5 years. Almost all were up pretty big at some point, but I didn't take profit cause everyone says buying and holding long term is the play. But now it's all fud for the foreseeable future, and even if it starts going up, feels like at best I'll break even when all is said and done. How do y'all stay the course in this climate, for years at a time? :-(

keep selling otm covered calls. roll them if needed

There’s a lot of new(er) investors in this sub since Covid and all y’all know is “stonks go up.” Zoom out. When you “buy and hold” that doesn’t mean a literal one time purchase and hold for short term. Yes, 2-5 years is short term. Try thinking of holding for decades or a lifetime while purchasing on a regular basis. Does it suck to lose money, sure. But you don’t lose until you cash out. Close your trading app, ignore the buzz, and live your life.

investing is a long term project. there will be ups and downs. eventually as you progress in your knowledge you will learn to not only buy good companies, but good companies at good prices. you will learn it is not always time to buy, sometimes you just hold. sometimes you sell etc. but in the long run you must keep buying on downtrends with regular contributions otherwise you will lose. preferably you will buy vehicles that replicate indices with the majority of your capital as individual stocks are not destined to recover. this is also what most individuals on this subreddit do, and they stock pick around it. hang in there.

How underwater are you on them? IMO just be happy you didn't get suckered into buying leaps or calls or something and just ride it out. You'll break even and then some but it'll take some time. IMO wait for serious capitulation in the market before you average down. Watch for long term moving averages to flatten out and watch for the Fed to eventually start QE or at least stop QT.

Get off this sub and evaluate your picks objectively. You picked solid companies IMO which should recover once macro improves. If you read too much FUD around here and in the media, you’ll forget why you bought in the first place. Most people trash a stock when it’s down and then proceed to praise it and pump it when it’s high. Good luck and remember: emotions and good investing/trading does not mix

JNPR looking good. .58 Vs .50 expected 1.4146B Vs 1.35B expected Guide: .64 Vs .62 expected 1.475B. Vs 1.42B expected Looks to be up 2.8% AH's

Hopeful for DOCN earnings with MSFT and GOOG cloud segments looking mighty strong

I am way overweight cloud stocks but MSFT and GOOG were relatively in line with expectations for GCP and Azure

Well see. I like DOCN, but I'd be more concerned by the fact they aren't enterprise clients using them, but smaller businesses that are probably going to be hurt more with high labor costs and interest rate hikes.

Tomorrow is gonna be redder than a match of Mortal Kombat isn't it?

Those are pretty good numbers by GOOG considering we are in a recession. Good time to add some more shares.

Their Cloud business is growing. Their ad revenue is lower than expected but they're still growing. I will DCA in the next months.

Cloud is going to roll over eventually too

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Why would an efficiency driver get cut? Cloud helps companies cut their costs.

I’m definitely adding. They’ll be among the biggest beneficiaries of economic recovery.

Long oil/banks/restaurants/war/obesity and short ad tech, got it

Why is everyone so surprised that companies are slashing advertising expenses during a recession with soaring inflation? It's easier to cut your ad spending than payroll.

Because the “red hot economy” narrative is so strong. I keep losing respect for journalists more and more. Some of these “good expect for cost of living and housing articles and earnings” pieces are getting a bit much

> Google hired 13,000 people in the past 3 months. +36,000 employees YoY. Google does not appear to be cutting spending though

> Google hired 13,000 people in the past 3 months. +36,000 employees YoY. > Google does not appear to be cutting spending I thought the other commenter was referring to cutting ad expenses meaning less revenues to Google and other ad companies.

I know, just thought it was interesting

I see mostly beats except for GOOG? Doesn't bode well for META tomorrow.

Except analysts sandbagging their META expectations. Might not be great numbers but should beat the extremely low expectations

Yeah. Anything that is reliant on ad spend will likely come in below target. With the current state of the economy this shouldn't be too surprising. Advertising spend is usually one of the first things to get cut when belt tightening occurs.

Can't imagine Meta reporting will be good.

I asked about MXL earlier, looks like they announced today as well. [https://quantisnow.com/insight/3575182](https://quantisnow.com/insight/3575182) Record net revenue of $285.7 million, up 2% sequentially and up 24% year-over-year Record GAAP gross profit of $167.5 million and non-GAAP gross profit of $177.1 million, with GAAP gross margin of 58.6% and non-GAAP gross margin of 62.0% Connectivity revenue, led by our Wi-Fi product offering, delivered $83 million, up 46% sequentially and 118% YoY Going to open a position now, this company is trading at 6X forward sales with solid growth. It's up 5% in the AH's

Reallly great breakdown of MSFT Earnings: https://twitter.com/TheTranscript\_/status/1585003267573960704?s=20&t=j31ElmOVJrYJDpEXZgRGqw

Broken link?

https://twitter.com/TheTranscript_/status/1585003267573960704?s=20&t=j31ElmOVJrYJDpEXZgRGqw

Ty

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Futures don't come out until after 6. They will not be positive

Google, all the way back down to... Friday's opening price. The horror.

MSFT -2.75% on a beat??? I get that market is scared now but surely the fact Google missed and MST beat means *some* companies are better managed than others and should be rewarded for that

Ignore AH prices.