Are there any bull case for DoorDash ($DASH) when shares unlock this Tuesday?
By - switchitup_lets
DoorDash is a joke of a company. No reason for their stock to be over $50 which is a stretch by itself.
Right, so free money just by buying puts this week? But if this were the case, everyone would be rich I guess?
There's no such concept as "free" money with options. **Options are a zero sum game** - actually a negative sum game, but for the sake of simplicity, we'll treat it as zero sum.
The only way you can win a contract is for another person to lose their bet.
Options are the casino of the stock market. The house always wins because it charges a fee.
The problem with this is not every bet is equal. For instance some people make a bet to hedge risk and don't actually expect to win their bet. Some people buy/sell bets in both directions
That is true, perhaps I should have mentioned if you buy ITM puts, the IV is minimal (maybe like $200 puts). The downside is you risk to lose a lot more if the stock price were to go up.
Though, will it be going up this week once shares get unlocked?
I went hard on April puts based on fundamentals - yet the market is so irrational right now the price will somehow skyrocket knowing my luck.
Good point, irrational market.
Nice, I put in an order for puts on this name this morning but did not fill. I GUESS it is best to bid up if you really believe. Best of luck with your trade.
Where’s the moat?
It’s a business model with an incredibly low barrier for entry but incredibly difficult to reach profitability. Any company that can figure out how to do the latter? There’s your moat. $DASH isn’t there.
Doordash is a garbage company but bearish bets in this market have tended to not work out of late
Doordash has been expanding out of food delivery and into parcel delivery for stores that doesn't have their own. If successful they could be a competitor to parcel companies just like Uber/Lyft was to taxis.
Right, not sure if that can offset the unlock for this week alone, but definitely a plus for "bull" case.
Good luck, I succeeded in shorting DASH before but exited at the perfect time before its massive rally. I'm not going to do it again because it easily could have blown up in my face, shorting is very hard to pull off imo.
Nice, I'm buying some puts because I think the lockup is going to drive the prices down this week. Don't know about the future, but only thinking about this week.
Except the mail already exists. USPS. UPS. DHL. Uber is pretty decent as a taxi company so it can compete in europe, and if it can compete, it can do uber eats, uber parcels, etc. Doordash, never heard of it. Parcels? We have self pickup atm style mailboxes, we have dhl, we have any local company.
Uber revolutionized the market, sure. But now the revolution is over, and the market is boring, every jack and jill have a mobile app with gps tracking and what have you not.
We'll see, Airbnb is doing pretty well for themselves for crowdsourcing the lodging industry. The concept has been proven to work in multiple fields, no reason to dismiss it for last mile parcel shipping. If the demand exceeds the current supply and Doordash is able to be competitive with their pricing I can see them taking a hold in this space.
Well, I got 5 puts at 140 for 19 March when market openned. Am up almost 2000 as of now.
Am fairly confident that it will be going down awhile before it has any chance of going up.
I got some $145 and $150, and up a nice amount as well :)
Uber / Uber eats bought postmates... so that is going to crush door dash in a few years.
Right, I just don't see doordash doing anything in the longterm. Though I'm speculating that next week is free money on puts. But if everyone believed this, no one would sell puts. So there is probably a bull side as well, which is what I'm curious about.
I know DoorDash is branching out into same day delivery for some companies instead of using traditional delivery services.
What? They make you wait more than a day for your dinner?
Lol I’m talking about normal parcel delivery sorry I should’ve clarified
Over here if you pay enough you can just get DHL to not make you wait until tomorrow. Who knows, maybe a weird market where you don't have to send your own employee in a taxi to pick up an urgent buy will appear.
Holy shit this is genius, are you Michael Burry? I was reading something else that Dash would fall because of the reopening, double knife.
No, just an average investor. I'm leaning toward buying some puts because I feel the employees are dying to sell as soon as they can. They know whoever sells faster, they can get higher price. Some may hold because they believe the stock will recover. Though it is very speculative to say it will recover at the current time.
A common pattern for IPOs is they jump at first, drop over the next 6 months or so, then start to climb after lockup expiration. I don't see that happening for DASH, however, because delivery companies are shit businesses. The only hope these companies ever have of becoming profitable is when they can eliminate humans and use drones/autonomous vehicles. That ain't exactly around the corner.
Right, and my hypothesis is this week it'll crash hard. I bought some puts in the end.
Interesting day, huge jump in DASH. I know tech had a massive jump today, or I guess not many employees are selling...
Volume is 20M compared to average 5M so yes there are many people selling, the question is who is buying so many shares
Shares unlocking? I guess it’s time for Cathy to be buying dash then just like palantir so the thing totally doesn’t tank. I’m short Uber and Lyft dash is toast for sure as well. These companies have no road to profitability.
Uber/Lyft I'm neutral about, but I definitely think DASH is wayyyyy overvalued.
Yeah problem is they have tons of cash. Their next pivot will be to buy the restaurant’s they deliver food from lol. Why not they actually make money. Dash loses on every delivery.