***POTD Record: 18-12-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+15.26 units) / ROI: 22.98% / Avg Odd: 1.83***
Last pick: Martinez vs Ymer - Over 21.5 Games @ 1.74 ✅
Today's event: Thiem vs Varillas (ATP Gstaad)
**Pick: Thiem Handicap -2.5 Games @ 1.82 ✅**
**Stake: 5 units which is 5% of my bankroll**
Starts at 4:30 AM Eastern Time
After such an awful phase with 11 losses in a row, Thiem has finally found some form and is slowly climbing back to the player he was years ago before injury troubles. He made a pretty solid Bastad tournament and here in Gstaad he had to face Gaston and Delbonis which are two clay specialists so those were really solid wins
Varillas is having his best ATP tournament and only plays Clay with some quality but at 26 it worries me that he is still playing Challengers all the time and I don't expect him to leave these top 120/top 80 rankings at any point. In this tournament he still hasn't faced a player with the quality that Dominic Thiem has in this surface
At this stage of the event Varillas is probably the easiest opponent that Thiem could have got and with the Peruvian not having really strong qualities this is a good match for Thiem to get used to longer rallies and to dictate the point when he needs to
Expecting the former top 3 in the world to bring us another solid performance
[Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DarkHorse200) (Any donation is highly appreciated)
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op had him on game handicap, he’s currently-3.5 @-150 if theim drops a game this set early you can definitely get it at -2.5. keep your eyes peeled just i case!
I’ve had a long ass week and haven’t been betting as much as I have been (maybe for the best). But when I see you I tail. Let’s get this bread mr Dark Horse. BOL!!
Was thinking about putting a big bet on this last night but wanted to wait until this thread of POTD to see if anyone else was feeling Thiem. Turns out it was the very first pick upvoted, haha. Glad this all came together perfectly, great pick.
Record: 9-5 (+7.25 units)
Last Pick: Cam Norrie -1.5 sets vs David Goffin ❌
Today’s Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-165) vs Karen Khachanov (4 units)
Reasoning: Carlos Alcaraz is an incredible young talent. He will be one of the greatest players of this decade for sure once Nadal and Djokovic slow down, and has already beaten both of those players this year. Alcaraz owns a record of 22-2 on clay this season, which is his best surface. The young Spaniard sports a career winning percentage of 78% on clay across his career. He has matched up with Khachanov once before; their first meeting came two months ago at the French Open. Alcaraz handled Khachanov with ease in this match, as he won in straight sets by scores of 6-1, 6-4, and 6-4. Khachanov is a good player in his own right, with a record of 10-6 on clay this year, but if you look into his opponents, you will see that 7 out of his 10 victories came against players ranked outside of the top 70. We are counting on Alcaraz to handle Khachanov with ease. I know 4 units is risky, but Alcaraz is a beast on clay and I think he will bring home a W for us here. To those who tail, BOL!
POTD Record: 74-55
Profit: +16.6 Units // ROI: 13% // Average Odds: 1.87
Last Pick: Eels vs Broncos over 40.5 Points W
**Todays Pick: Sydney Roosters Team Total over 24.5 vs Knights (1.87 at Bet 365) (NRL) (Starts in 7 hours)**
* The Knights have allowed 30+ points in 8 of their last 9 games against teams in the top 9 of the NRL. They have actually allowed 36+ points in 7 of these 9 games and this includes allowing 40 and 42 points in their last 2 games.
* The Roosters are currently in 9th position but they have a really talented squad that really should be higher in the table. Part of the reason they have struggled is because they have had quite a hard schedule so far. 10 of their 17 games so far have been against top 8 sides and they have had to face both the Panthers and Eels twice already. They have actually been playing much better in recent weeks (they have had some close losses to good sides which they were underdogs in) and this is a must win game for them if they want to keep their top 8 hopes alive.
* Last week the Roosters scored 54 points against a Dragons side who are above the Knights in the table. In fact the last 2 games the Roosters played against sides in the bottom 6 they have scored 44 and 54 points. This shows that the Roosters are more than capable of putting on a big score in games they are heavily favored in.
* The Roosters have scored 28+ points in 4 of their last 5 games against the Knights. This includes games of scoring 48, 42, and 38 points.
* The Knights beat the Roosters earlier this season all the way back in round one. Things have changed a lot since then and I actually weirdly see this as a positive for the Roosters as it means they are less likely to underestimate the Knights heading into this game.
* Weather again is my main concern here. Some rain is expected but not enough to scare me off this one.
BOL, tail or fade.
No its Supposed to be 24.5. It is still at 24.5 on Bet 365 right now. Draft Kings must just have bad odds for NRL. Fanduel also has this at 25.5 as of this comment (there is really no difference between 24.5 and 25.5).
I would probably play it up to 27.5. But I would highly suggest having multiple books so you can shop the lines. Draft Kings is by the worst line I have seen for this total. This is still at 24.5 on Bet 365 and I just checked Fanduel and it is at 25.5 there (there isn't much difference between 24.5 and 25.5 as key numbers go in multiples of 2).
Still showing 24.5 for me although the odds have dropped from 1.87 to 1.85. Could be because we are in different regions? Either way I would expect the line to move as we get closer to kick off as a chunk of money often comes in right before the game.
I am from down under. I do think odds change by region in certain cases. Definitely availability changes as you say though. I know that in the USA some states don't have certain sports or types of bets available.
That's mental. It is currently 24.5 on bet 365, 25.5 on Ladbrokes au, 26.5 on pinnacle, 27.5 on DK, and 29.5 on William hill. All at odds of between -125 and -110. Think we may of accidentally stumbled upon an arbitrage opportunity LMAO.
**EDIT: Kiwoom won 3-2, but we lost.**
**KBO Record: 86-86-5** (KBO Streak L, Last 10: 7-3) Down 0.64u over 176 KBO picks, 50.3% success rate, -0.37% ROI
**Last:** Hanwha +130 at Lotte (Hanwha lost 10-7.)
Hanwha jumped out to a 3-0 lead through the top of the 5th before allowing 6 runs in the bottom of the fifth. But they went back up 7-6 in the top of the 7th before allowing 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th. Had every opportunity to win this one, but alas...
**Pick:** Samsung at **Kiwoom -1.5 +115**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
KBO is back!!!!! The All-Star break is over and some teams are coming out of the gate with their aces.
The best pitcher in the league is on the mound for the Kiwoom Heroes. He's third in the league with a 2.02 ERA and 1st with a 2.24 FIP among all qualified pitchers. He's also 1st in K% and 2nd in K/BB%. And he's second in both opponent's average and WHIP. Over his last 5 starts, he's allowed just 3 ER in 35.1 IP. He's faced this opponent 3 times and gave up 2 ER in 22.1 IP.
Samsung's starter is 21st in both ERA (3.70) and FIP (3.75). He's pitched poorly against this opponent, allowing 8 ER in 11 IP over two starts. Over his last 5 starts, he gave up 17 ER in 30 IP.
Samsung lost 11 games in a row before the All-Star break and now face the 2nd best team in the league.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit. For more picks, check out the KBO thread.
POTDs are break even, but I pick 3 to 5 a day and have been profitable. Also, when I started 2 years ago, I was awful for awhile. I have a much better overall record over the last 100 picks or so.
But the answer is easy... it's fun and I like the action.
Pick of the day record: 2-1 +1u
Last pick: Briedablik team total over 1.5✅
7/22: | Irish Premier Division | Dundalk vs. Finn Harps 2:45pm EST
Pick: 1.75u Dundalk team total over 1.5 (-175) DraftKings✅
Tomorrow, 3rd place Dundalk host relegation zone Finn Harps in round 24 of the Irish league season. Finn Harps are enduring a terrible season, sitting 9th (out of 10 teams) with 12 points after 23 matches. They have not fared well on their travels recently, losing 7 of their last 10 road matches. In that span; they’ve conceded 2+ goals in 9 out of their last 10 away matches. Pretty simple, they’re terrible away from home. Dundalk have won 10 of their last 12 home matches, scoring 2+ goals in 9 of those 12 matches. In 2 out of the 3 matches they failed to hit this mark, they played Shamrock Rovers; the best team in Ireland, and the other was against St. Patrick’s who are directly below them in the table. Dundalk tends to show out against weaker league opposition at home, and although I don’t love the price, it’s playable. Since the slate tomorrow is rather small, and I don’t feel like forcing something on the opening match day of a different league, we’re riding with Dundalk to score twice at home.
BOL and as always gamble responsibly
7 minute cash!!!!! LETS GO!
Record: 36-28-3
Last pick: CHI Cubs vs NY Mets ML (-154) at Fanduel. L
Today's pick: CHI Cubs vs PHI Phillies ML (-136) at Fanduel
MLB: 7:06 PM EST
Justin Steele is on the mound for the Cubs and his records are 3-6 for this year. For his last start against the Orioles, he threw 6 innings and allowed 4 runs. Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies and his records are 5-3 for this year. For his last start against the Marlins, he threw 6 innings and allowed only 1 run. The Cubs are still struggling with offense and keep making errors. The Phillies are overall better and Gibson would be able to shut down the Cubs offense. Expect the Phillies to get the home court win and defeats the Cubs.
Edit: OMG what a disaster.
All bets are 1 unit. -4.82 units
Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666
The ML @ -136 was sketchy at best....the line didn't make sense, based on the last 6-7 games of each team. Tough to bet on games coming out of the All Star Break...I mean, look what happened to Boston last night. :)
Double down on Philly today and make back what you lost.
POTD Record: 1-1-1
Last pick: Phillies/Marlins NRFI ✅
Today's pick: Pirates/Marlins NRFI, 7:05 PM ET (-125) ✅✅✅✅✅✅
Analysis: The Marlins have been shutout in 34 straight innings. Their starter Braxton Garrett is 8-0 on NRFIs so far this year. Pirates starter Zach Thompson NRFI'd them on July 14. Pirates are missing Bryan Reynolds; Marlins are missing Jazz Chisholm and Jon Berti. This feels like easy money. I won't use the L word, but this feels like an easy enough win
RECORD: 13-4
Profit: +6.82 Units
Current Form: 2W
Today’s Picks: Adam Amarasinghe ML vs Sam Spencer (1.83)
Event: Cage Warriors 2:00Pm Est Today
Reason: I like Adam in this fight as he has proven himself more in Cage Warriors to be a decent mid ranked fighter then his opponent has. Sam Spencer is currently 0-2 in Cage Warriors losing both fights by finish (1 TKO, 1 Sub). Sam is 6-3 overall but only 2 of his wins come against above .500 opponents with one being in 2016 and the other being in 2019 against a fighter at the time who was 3-0 after fighting 2 bums and getting a shocking upset over a fighter now in Cage Warriors doing well. Overall Sam’s resume is rather unimpressive and he’s not been a very active fighter either. With this fight being his second of the year after having a 3 year break. What I like from Adam is that he also has a 6-3 record but is 4-3 in Cage Warriors. Adam also went 9-0 as an amateur. His fights in Cage Warriors have been progressively getting harder with him facing more difficult opponents. He’s currently on a 2-1 stretch with his only loss coming to 15-4 Sam Creasey.
It is quite late at the time I’m writing this so to sum it up if it’s confusing I just don’t see Amarasinghe losing to Spencer. All 3 of his losses come to better opponents and I don’t believe that any of Spencer’s 6 wins are against anyone as good as Amarasinghe.
All Picks are 1 Unit
—Let me know if your tailing—
(Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
I’m definitely gonna have more picks for Bellator not 100% sure on CW though. Almost all fights have heavy favourites and my book is only offering ML’s on CW. Whereas on Bellator there’s plenty of markets. Whatever else I end up taking I’ll comment under this post though.
i don't know shit, but wanted reasons to watch the metric fuckton of fights this week and having rooting interests...for what it's worth:
(i'm not reformatting the tables...book, followed by american odds, followed by my pick).
**CW:**
Betonline -100.9 Hardwick and Darren Stewart
Bovada 212 Jim Wallhead over Daniel Skibinski
Bovada 120 Sam Creasey over Dylan Hazan
Bovada 180 agy sardari over mike figlak
Bovada 113 aimable+luke riley+omiel brown
Betonline -119.6 kingsley crawford and tobias harila
Betonline 300 kanisauskas over currie
Bovada -103 Nathan Fletcher + kavanaugh + Urholin
Betonline -125 adam amarsinghe over sam spencer
**Bellator:**
Betonline 165 lima over jackson
Bovada 126 outlaw over tofiq
Betonline -160 numagomedov ITD over chris gonzalez
Bovada -155 Berkhamov over larken
Bovada 188 golm over davion franklin
Betonline 235 cotton over rosta
Betonline 230 Arteaga over Porto
Bovada -196 akhmed magomedov + Jaylon bates + Faraldo
Betonline 300 king over rabadanov
Bovada -140 Colgan v Nuro under 1.5 rds
KSW:
Betonline -100 Grzebyk and Oumar Sy
Bovada 145 Dawid Smielowski over kaczmarczyk
Bovada 108 emilia czerwinska and yann liasse
Betonline gustavo olivera and michal pietrzak
Betonline 140 kacper Koziorzebski over Meek
Betonline -175 Maciejowski over kaszuba
**Oktagon (much smaller bets for me):**
\-130 Legierski and Vemola
120 Vemola and Jan Siroky
220 kanchev over mate
120 Paulus over kareta
\-105 David Moon over Michal Konrad
118 Filip Macek and Daniel Skvor
135 michal kotalik and vaclav holota
200 Roza Gumienna over Cornilia Holm
**ACA (much smaller bets for me):**
155 Froes over Suleymanov
180 Rashid magomedov over ali bagov
112.5 Grigor Matevosyan over Prado and Mehdi Baidulaev
165 Altynbeck Mamashov over Koshikin
160 myasnikov over kushagov
112.5 evolev and baidulaev
200 Pessosa over adam bogatyrev
112.5 Pavel Vitruk and baidulaev
\-135 Albert Misikov over Galev
190 chuponov over limberger
Originally I had planned on betting Adam but when I checked out the fighters socials I saw that Spencer posted an IG story 4 hours after weigh-ins showing him on a scale already up 19 pounds (at like 154). Given Adam is already stepping up from his usual 125 to 135 I've got a fear that if Spencer tacks on another 5+ pounds since that post he could just be big in comparison. BOL on Adam
Rest of the picks I’m taking for CW:
Madars Fleminas ML @4.33 (0.5U)
Omiel Brown ML
Loneer Kavanagh ML
@1.75 (1U)
Michal Figlak ML
Daniel Skibinski ML
@1.86 (1U)
Kingsley Crawford ML
Tobias Harila ML
@1.82 (1U)
Loneer Kavanagh ML
Tobias Harila ML
Daniel Skibinski ML
@2.42 (1U)
Loneer Kavanagh ML
Tobias Harila ML
Daniel Skibinski ML
Adam Amarasinghe ML
Michal Figlak ML
@6.28 (0.5 U)
that whole paragraph about handouts makes it seem beggy. just keep it simple and put your tip jar at the bottom and the tips will come naturally. we don't need to know your life story to why we should tip.
The odds are like -170 or something but how do you like the Padres/Mets NRFI? I was thinking of parlaying no run 1st and no run 2nd at +150 with Darvish and Scherzer pitching
Yesterdays performance from Germany W was as I wrote and expected, within full time due to Frohms outstanding performance, yet not as easy as the lines would suggest. I’d like to think I called it correctly by only making a 1u play, because like I said it would be a riskier play. Gz for everyone to took the extra gas options for Germany to win to nil or Austria under 0.5.
That makes us 2W-0L-0P, +2.87u so far.
Todays match is closer (odds wise) to the risks of betting. I feel the lines are more reflective than yesterdays game. That having said there’s two bets that I like, but to the risk of Blackstenius not starting (she was subbed in 2 out of 3 games this tournament) I will go for my secondary pick as POTD to prevent a higher chance of picking a voided bet (to score).
Todays pick: Belgium Womens +2 Asian Handicap 1u.
Reasoning:
Belgium is as everchanging as the local weather here. They played an abysmal first game (granted most players are semi-pro’s) versus Iceland. Evrard stopping the penalty (poor shot) caused them to reach the quarters. Belgiums third game (hold your horses, I will explain the second in a bit) was a one of a kind match that’s hard to interpret. They had the advantage of a double-pass-through. Either a draw or a win would secure them a spot in todays 1/4th final. Italy played traditional cattanacio in the first halve (their reasoning is beyond me). Belgium were allowed to play aggresively, causing Italy not to be able to play into their only strength; Bonansea. If Italy (mediocre performance the entire tournament) the way the entered the second half from the get-go, I’m sure Belgium would be at home already. Why is this important you wonder? Because it shows he Belgium plays offensively as well as defensively in 1 match. Offensively they are better than defensively, mainly because of Wulleart and De Caigny opposed to just Evrard. The rest is the squad is not really impressive compared to the remaining teams still in the tournament. Now, what happened versus France in game 2? Lets play a hypothetical. If Belgium was better at defending (like, only a fair bit) they would easily be able to stop the 2nd Fench goal. It was an easy fix to stop the upcoming wingbacks as well to (wo)man-mark your target; who the hell covered Mbock? Exactly. Now imagine it was 1-1 and France got that penalty around the 87th minute or so. Imagine the backlash if it would’ve been the decisive misser resulting in a 1-1 draw. Versus Belgium. The semipros. As France. The “absolute best team” (yes, VERY overrated. This much as info for tomorrows pick.
You are telling me poor little Belgium held the “amazing” France at 2-1, where france had maybe 3 good chances (scored 2)? That would promise difficulties for a less impressive Swedish squad now wouldn’t it? This does however depend on Belgium and Serneels playing defensive counter football, and unless they are mentally challenged, should play for at least the first 65-70 minutes to wear the Swedish down on key positions so Belgium can stand a much greater chance of sealing this within 90 minutes, as rheir semi pros have only been working (training for football) for the past 4 weeks now. Before that, they had normal dayjobs. You will simply not last 120 minutes (2 hours excluding injury time) versus a team of fulltime professional athletes (Sweden).
Enough about Belgium, let’s look at Sweden.
Currently ranked number 2 in the world (not reflective of their current form imo), taunted by 5 covid cases (of which they only confirmed 2 positive and “no comment” on the other 3), might have to alter composition slightly. As I cannot find validation for the remaining 3 and I don’t want to wait until 1 hour before match time for posting this, I will base my analysis on what is known right now. Only 1 starter (Glas) is tested positive, the other was merely an unused benchwarmer. Sure, any starter ruled out potentially is bad news, but I reckon the Swedes have enough quality to replace Glas with decent options (compared to Belgian offensive quality). Sweden played a decent game versus the Netherlands who are traditionally quite matched to each other it seems. A piss poor boring game versus Switzerland and an okay game at best versus Portugal. Yes, “okay at best” with a 5-0 win. Portugal was forced to play a benchwarmer goalie who made some pretty huge blunders.
I expect Sweden to control the game and push for the lead, while I expect Belgium to hold their ground and mainly lurk for a counter when still tied. Once Sweden scored it will become interesting what Belgium will opt to do. To be honest, I see Belgium possibly netting 1 goal if Sweden is playing offensive oriented (definitely when pushing from 1 or 2-0 for a second or third goal and leave spaces for Wullaert, who’s smart in energy management and selfless up front. She’s got a good strike but is also clever with her crosses setting up teammates for a great cross or shot on target. I think its mainly due to a lack of quality from her teammates that she doesn’t have a lot of assists or pre-assists).
So all in all, I think that +2 for Belgium, (meaning winning, drawing or losing by 1 goal wins our bet, and losing by 2 is a push, losing by 3 or more goals margin is an L), is pretty valuable @1.67. I think the odd should be lower, as extra time and carefulness by either team in a knockout match doesn’t seem to be calculated into this odd. Then again, low unit play as either team isn’t consistent in their performance. Rather on the safe side for profit on the long term, than risky and poor bankroll management because you just “need” to bet something every day; that’s called emotional betting due to greed, and you will lose sooner than later. Trust me, been there.
Let the shitstorm for naysayers begin :D! Feel free to discuss in comments, I will reply if it has any merit. I dont like salt, only pepper on my food, thanks.
As Sweden scored 1-0 in the 92nd out of 93 minutes we’ve won another bet, 3-0 and I’m starting to believe I know what I’m doing. I wanted to quickly post what I
I’m leaning toward for tomorrows pick, as I don’t know at what time I will be awake and capable of posting. I will confirm tomorrow with analysis in Saturdays potd thread. For now I’m liking BTTS between France W vs the Netherlands W.
For now I bid the 10 who upped my pick a goodnight and we’ll see how far we can continue this ;).
Good day yestreday, 4 out of 5 matches green and 2 out of 3 plays. All is recorded in my stats. Also posting those picks on Twitter – and I am surprised, that not many analysts have transparent stats on their profile – they chose only good days which they pin to their profile. That is sign that they are not that succesful! Watch out for this. **My record is now 48-36, +51,55 units and ROI 18,9%** (detail in Twitter profile)
POTD Record: 27-17-2 / Currently +23,8 units / ROI 15,1%, Average odds: 1,88
Last pick Vilardo – Meza. Meza @ 1,83. 3/5. 3/5 ✅ 64,61
Last 5 picks – ✅✅✅❌✅
Streak – 1win and won 15 out of last 20
**Today's pick –Haerteis – Jong. Jong @ 2,1. 3/5**
Event: Metzingen future, Germany. 17,45CET
On the clay in Germany, local 26yrs old Haerteis plays with 22yrs old Jong from Netherland. I really do not trust Haerteis. He won 2 matches in a row for the first time since Trimbach in March on the carpet. Since then his record on clay is 4-9. In July he lost to Wiskand and here he needed 3 sets to defeat – Gavrielides 76 in 3rd set and 64,16,63 Friberg. However points on return were 39-29 in Fribergs favor. Also he had 11bp and converted 5 (in 2 matches he lost his serve 8x from 20 and that is too much) It does not seem as big form
Jong is TCU player and in top 100 in ITA ranking. His record this year was 24-6. Now in Europe he defeated Mayor in Amersfoort (and lost to Van Ascche) Here he did get through qualies, then he defeated in tough match Hampe and in 2nd round pretty good Handel 63,67,63. But he lost hi serve only once from 4bp.
Here I trust Jong – he is good player and Haerteis is currently not so strong, especially on clay
This week I am taking break from tournaments but maybe again next week I will go somewhere. In meantime you can follow me on my Twitter
My long term record:
684-667
ROI
18,3%
Last 12months
283-313
19,0%
**NRL Record:** 39-37
(NRL is the Australian Rugby league competition)
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** -0.46
L5: ❌✅❌✅✅ Streak: W2
**Last POTD:**
Eels - Broncos Over 40.5 total points @1.90 ✅
**Today's POTD:**
Roosters -8.5 @1.90 ✅
Edit: Knights proper fade material the rest of the year against any top 8 side, they actually look like they couldn't give a single fuck about playing the rest of the season.
Knights simply can't beat teams higher than 10th on the ladder and have an average losing margin of 20 points throughout the year. The also haven't beaten a current top 8 side all year and haven't kept a losing margin under 10 points in all of those games. Roosters come into this in 9th position with the aim of breaking into the top 8 (top 8 is finals come end of year). They have a bunch of really difficult games coming up so they'll be looking to win and put on a massive score to help their for and against as that determines positions on the ladder when teams are in equal points. They do have a few outs this week (notably Manu) and rain may be a factor but they have lot more talent across the field and should definitely be wanting this win more than the lowly Knights.
**Time:** 7 hours from time of post.
**Tip Jar - ALGO:**
AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
Record: 3-1, +1.75U Last pick: SF/LAD F5 U 4.5 (1.25U to win 1U)
**MLB: Brewers Double Result EVEN (8:10 EDT start)** **Risk 1U to win 1U**
Reasoning: My POTD yesterday was the Giants/Dodgers First 5 Under 4.5…If you didn’t stay up to watch/follow it, lemme tell ya, one of the toughest beats I’ve seen in a while. Mitch White of the Dodgers throws 5 no-hit innings and Carlos Rodon, the guy with the 12th lowest ERA in the league, gives up 5 runs, all coming with two outs, including a pop up to right that would’ve ended the 3rd at 2-0, instead the RF lost it in the lights and two runs scored, after which a double made it 5-0 and that was that. That’s gambling baby, time to move on and go get this one!
We’re back to a full MLB slate today and I love it. My favorite play of the day is the Brewers Double Result against the Rockies. In case you’re not familiar with double result bets in baseball, it means that the Brewers have to be leading after 5 innings AND win the game. So if they’re tied after 5 innings, it’s a loss.
There are lots of reasons I love this bet, but let’s start with the Brewers starter, reigning NL Cy Young winner, recent NL All-Star, Corbin Burnes. Burnes owns the 5th lowest ERA in the league at just 2.14 and decided not to pitch in the All-Star Game, so now he’s coming off 7 days of rest. As for the Brewers first 5 record, they’re 22-15-3 at home this season, including being 3-0 in Burnes’ last 3 starts at home.
On the other side you’ve got Antonio Senzatela going for the Rockies. He’s making his first start since July 1st, when he injured his shoulder. Unbeknownst to me, Antonio is quite the actor, he has absolutely crushed his role playing Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season with his home and away splits. At home, he’s got a 4.02 ERA (not bad considering he’s pitching at Coors Field) but on the road he holds an atrocious 6.86 ERA. Not only that, but the Rockies are 15-27 on the road (28-23 at home) and an impressive 8-25-9 (worst in the league) in the first five innings on the road.
As the cherry on top, favorites the first game after the All-Star break have won more than 65% of the time since 2005, including going 12-3 last year. Home favorites have also won at a nearly 64% rate since 2011.
So put this all together and you get 4 words: Broncos Country, Let’s Ride
Not a problem! On DK click on the game and go under ‘Game Parlays’ and scroll down to the section that says ‘1st 5 Innings/Moneyline’ and click on Brewers/Brewers. Looks like it’s moved to -150 now unfortunately but I still like it.
Awesome! I didn’t put the bet in last night, I just noticed that DK had it at -125 and my regular book didn’t have the line up yet. Sure enough, I just got it at even odds!
POTD Record: 27-25
Last pick: Dodgers -125(pending)✅
Todays pick: MLB ⚾️ Milwaukee -1.5 -115 v Colorado 6:10 pm MT
Reasoning: Burnes on the hill for Brew crew, I don’t see Colorado scoring much in this one… He hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in his past 3 starts, I bet he continues that streak. Rox offensive stats are deceiving because they score way less, on average on the road away from Coors and thin CO air… They also suck on the road 15-27 compared to at home 28-23… Senza can pitch and he can keep the Rockies close in this game, but at some point in the first 6 innings he should give up a crooked number. Senza allowed 3 or more runs in 3 of past 4 starts, on road he’s allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of his 4 recent starts. Hader struggled a bit before break, but I’m betting he and the bullpen can hold the lead they should have against Rockies. Betting Brew Crew 🍻 Friday. Booo urns ⚱️
Tail or fade
Tips appreciated🍀
Venmo: @Sportsnerd-_-
Like who CJ Cron? Look at his home runs hit at home 16 vs against the road 5. Yes Rockies can hit at home, but they don’t put up 10+ runs on the road like the do at home, which skews their numbers. Plus Burnes is in the mound. But take the Rockies or +1.5 all u want bro. Good luck
I love the Rockies, but their bats are Tarzan at home, Jane on the road. Brewers bats and Rockies bats pretty equal, but I like Burnes over Senza. Rox home v road splits have been skewed since 93 inaugural season. They’re different at Coors, mile high altitude.
Record: 6-2
Previous: Paul Stirling to score under 23.5 runs
POTD: Shai Hope to score under 30.5 runs
Sports: Cricket - West Indies vs India
Odds: -110
Reason: India might be playing without Bumrah and Shami but Siraj and Avesh Khan are very good early wicket takers. Shai Hope is in bad form and under 30.5 runs looks good. He couldn't score against Bangladesh in any of the 3 games and I see the same happening tomorrow. BOL!
POTD Record: 21-12-1 (+9.65 units)
Sports Records: Basketball 6-1, Tennis 5-2, Soccer 10-9-1
Streak: 3W, 4-1 L5, 15-5-1 L21
Last Pick: Aslan Karatsev vs. Daniel Elahi Galan, Karatsev ML - ATP Hamburg Tennis WON 0.59 Units
Today's Pick: Dominic Thiem vs. Juan Pablo Varillas, over 21.5 games - ATP Gstaad Tennis
Units/Odds: Betting 1 Unit at 1.66 odds to win 0.66 Units (Pinnacle)
Thiem's matches have covered this 7 matches in a row, Varillas hasn't dropped a set in 4 matches this tournament. I could see this one being a competitive 2 sets or a 3 setter.
Good luck and don't bet your life savings on this one match ok.
I'm not an expert or anything, just a fellow bettor, but I think he is building some good momentum, I see him winning it but I don't think it will be a dominant win.
**Record 17-9 with Avg Odds -102**
LEC Summer (League of Legends)
**SK Gaming ML -162**
This is one of those Team A is bad but Team B is worse scenarios. BO1 so it's always riskier but SK is coming off of a 2-0 week and at least it looks like they're trying. They're sorta in that sweet spot where they aren't competing for a playoff spot so the pressure isn't that high, but they also seem to be in a groove and I think they ride this to a 3 game win streak against the one team they know they're better than. BOL
Record: 32-24
Cs record: 29-20
Stats:
Profit:15.1U
ROI- 7.8%
Average odds: 1.81
Streak: 2W
Last 10 ✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅
Last pick:SWS ML vs Mibr academy ✅
SWS won 16-0 on map 1 and a clean 16-8 on map 2. Free odds yesterday.
Today's Pick: CSGO
GamersClub Seri A
Union ML vs Daotsu @1.60(5u)
Continuing with this Brazilan tournament.Ends soon and we don't really have anything else so let's milk this until this is on.
Not really a banger here cuz the odds are justified here but Union are still a stronger fit than Daotsu. This might prove out to be an important game since it's likely that the loser will be demoted to relegation and the winner goes on to the playoffs. What that really means is the Union will try their level best to pick up a W here instead of fooling around and throwing (This event has been pretty clean so far, we've got the results we expected and no major chokes)
Join in for picks and discussions. Looking to expand into football as well once the season starts. Mostly cs rn
https://discord.gg/dyKXcebw6k
POTD Record: 29-16-2
Last five picks: ✅❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: ATP. Hamburg
Francisco Cerundolo — Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev W and Total o21.5
+136
❌ awfull umpiring made my boy really mad. Rublev has just once more shown that he is a mental midget.
Today’s pick: MLB
Atlanta Braves — Los Angeles Angels
Angels -1
+183
Back to MLB. And also wanting to be a bit greedy today (it’s going to be a great Friday I feel), so going for Angels against Braves. Angels started the season strong and then they went to being a shitty team, but it is changing now.
Ohtani, the man who single-handedly can win games, on the mound today. This Japanese is of insane skill (you know that for sure) and he will win the game for the Angels. He also hasn’t scored a home run in a while, so putting half a unit on that too.
This is how I win, mfs.
BOL
Any tip in BTC would be appreciated: 3FN6we7NLjVvn53mByMb9wJZsdwCvguNiS
**Record:** 39-48-1
**ROI:** -19% :-16.25 u (@ $5.00)
**Average Odds:** 1.86
**Streak:** L L W W W
|Baseball |MLB |8:20pm
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels: **Atlanta Braves ML @ 1.65 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 66% chance for the Atlanta Braves to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.65 is only 61%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
**POTD Record: 1-0 / Units: +0.80 / ROI: 80%**
[**Previous pick**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w2frvl/pick_of_the_day_71922_tuesday/igqy3to/?context=3)
**Todays pick: Haase R. / Oswald P. ML vs Martinez P. / Munar J. @ 1.84**
**Stake: 1 unit**
*First of all, sorry guys because english is not my native language. I´ll try to do my best.*
*So I was scrolling through todays matches and I found this, and I think it is a great opportunity.*
*We are talking about 2 top doubles players with a lot of trophies in this modality. They have only played together once but they won that tournament (Umag 2019).*
*They will play against 2 players that are not focused on doubles and have their individual games today. Also, none of them have great results in doubles no matter what their teammate is.*
*Im expecting a game where our guys will give everything they got and the spaniards wont care at all about this game since they will be more tired and focused in their individual games.*
*Also, our guys should be better because they have a playstyle that suits more this kind of games with great serves and domination of the net, while the spaniards dont have great serves and their attributes are better for the individual games.*
*More info for you guys. Pedro Martinez is going to lose against Berrettini so theres no point for him to win this game. He should play the game to get paid but lose, since he should leave Gstaad asap to start preparing his next tournament in Kitzbuhel. His next week is very important because he will defend a lot of ATP ranking points since he got to the final there last year.*
*BOL*
*POTD Record: 1-2 / Units (-1.0) / Avg Odds: 2.50 |*
Last pick: *Onix Buffaloes -1.5* **L**
Todays Event: Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Elks
Last pick was looking really good until a random late run cut the Buffaloes 2 run lead to one. Off the Japanese baseball for right now, this CFL matchup tonight is a loaded with some great value. The Blue Bombers are 6-0, a high scoring offence, however with their star receiver just placed on a 1 day injury list, Its time for another one of their receivers to shine.
Carlton Agudosi has just cracked the scene in Winnipeg, scoring his first 2 touchdowns last game against Calgary. At 6’6 , coming off a hot performance and their top receiver out, I expect Agudosi to get fed at least another one tonight in the end zone. Star returner Janorian Grant will get the start at receiver tonight as well, but with his speed I see him luring defenders towards him, leaving Agudosi open for targets.
*PICK:* **CARLTON AGUDOSI ANY TIME TD @ 1.90**
- Love this pick so Im going 3 Units on it. Cheers!
I like this. Agudosi looked great in the endzone last week. Big and strong making contested catches. Only one game, but looks like he ticks the boxes to be a threat in the CFL. I also don’t see the Bombers scoring much on the ground tonight.
Thats what Im thinking, looks like they trust him with 1 on 1 toss ups in those massive end zones. Hopefully he gets more than his 6 receptions in the last game with their stair receiver who had 11 out!
PotD Record 2-1
Today AFL Fremantle to beat Richmond (@2.32 Sportsbet) sportsbet have super boost on this that takes it from 1.98 to 2.32.
Value value value, though I consider it to be a 50-50 after both teams coming off an L (Richmond to North melb). I can't just pass up freo at over 2$ against a team that gave North it's 2nd win of the year last week. Richmond seem to have all the power in the right places but a number of inconsistencies have been identified and at these odds I'll be slamming freo tonight.
BY NO MEANS A LOCK, BOL IF TAILING 👌
// **Record**: 9-3 // **Profit**: 12.19u // **ROI**: 50.79% // **Avg Odd**: 2.00 //
**Today's pick**: ***fnatic ML*** vs. Fun Plus Phoenix ***@ 1.705 (Valorant***)
Im really short on time right now but wanted to post this beauty. fnatic is the clear favorite here for me and the odds are just delicious. Since the addition from the turkish god and talent Alfajer fnatic never lost a game to FPX. Head 2 head is 4-0 for fnatic while FPX only winning two maps in fours matches played. Both teams had a four day break and could prepare for this match up. Surely FPX has Suygetsu on his side an really talented russian kid but i think Alfajer is better. Also i like fnatic much more as an team and they have some really stable maps and plays. This is the lower bracket so both teams will fight for their life and in the end fnatic will win.
Record: 3-0 +4.0u (MLB 3-0 +4.0u)
Recent Picks:
7/21 MLB - Astros ML (Game 1 of DH) -130 @ 1.3u ✅
7/17 MLB - White Sox ML -125 @ 1.25u ✅
7/16 MLB - Guardians/Tigers Over 8.5 -105 @ 2.1u ✅
Today’s Pick: MLB - Seattle Mariners ML +103 @ 2u (Game starts at 10:10 PM)
Houston Astros just played a double header against the Yankees in Houston yesterday before having to travel to Seattle last night. Jose Urqidy has allowed 5+ runs in each of his 3 starts against the Mariners. Urquidy’s Combined Stats against Mariners this season: 13 IP 27 H 17 R 7 BB.
Mariners ended the first half on a 14 game win streak and have won 17/L18 games. Also have a record of 24-20 at home and 34-19 as underdogs. Mariners also have been off since 7/17. In his 3 starts against the Astros this season, Marco Gonzalez Combined Stats are: 20.1 IP 17 H 6 R 1 BB 10 K. Mariners bullpen will be fresh, Astros bullpen played two games yesterday and traveled last night.
Result: Mariners lose 5-2 ❌
waiting on that sweet, sweet u/billdb pick...if it's Philly Phoenix, I may have to jump on the train for the 20 minute ride into the city...googled to see if there were AUDL games tonight and saw the first one is a 15 minute drive away from me...crazy (sorry, I moved just outside of Philly 11/2020, being this close to a major city is still very novel.)
There are apparently no lines this week and they might not be coming back at all :( https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vzqivk/ultimate_frisbee_71522/ih5bytj
You should def go to that game though. Philly-New York was a two goal game last time. Philly is one of the audl teams that's been surging up this year and they will bring a ton of energy against the undefeated Empire. Should be a blast
I think you helped kill it haha. You did insanely well last week and anybody who tailed (like me) crushed it. I won like $3000. They didn’t like that. Seems like it should be a drop in the bucket to them but I’ll bet the sport as a whole was not profiting.
Oh wow very nice. Yeah I saw elsewhere on twitter someone had taken (and promoted) the San Diego ML at +600 so I think that was probably the dagger for them. A shame, frisbee is so much fun
Damn, that's super sad to hear, your picks were clutch and I just got back into playing them last week (killer week, thank you)...that's awesome to hear, if it cools down tonight I may head out that way. Thank you again for the picks and the info!
If you want another user who is really good at a more niche sport, follow u/neutralbetting. He’s really damn good at darts. Hits about 2/3 of the time, often with plus odds.
My first POTD
Pick: Tour de France Stage 19 H2H Pogacar v Vingegaard: Vingegaard (2.75)
Todays stage is very likely to be a bunch sprint as this year there have been very few flat stages so the sprinters teams need a win and will likely reel in the breakaway.
Vingegaard has a 3 minute lead and has a massive incentive to stay at the front. Typically the team of the yellow jersey will try and keep him at the front incase if any crash that he is in front of it and doesn’t get hurt or lose time if it’s outside the final stage.
Pogacar will likely be riding his wheel anyway as he has mostly done recently and has no incentive to sprint here. Pogacar will not be allowed to be in a break.
I think this is mis priced on the history that Pogacar has been sprinting for the line when trying to get small time gains. Don’t see that being the case today.
Record 3-0
PICK
Miami Marlins Vs Pittsburgh Pirates
(UNDER 0.5 Runs 1st Inning) ✅️
ODDS - Fanduel (1.78)
This game features two of the worst 1st Inning scoring teams in the league, Miami is ranked 29th and Pittsburgh 28th. Both teams also rank near the bottom in hits and runs per game. Looking for these type of numbers to continue in today's game.
Long time lurker gonna try and start posting my plays here 🤞🏽
**POTD Record: 0-0**
MLB | 10:10 est
**Pick:** **Mariners ML** vs Astros @+108
**Stake: 2 units**
**Write Up:** Houston is coming off of a a double header yesterday vs NYY where they swept them. Although Yordan looked great in his return Altuve and Tucker (two all stars) struggled, I don’t think the quick flight to Seattle will help with that. Last time Urquidy faced the Mariners he was pulled after 4.1 IP walking a career high 4 batters with 5 runs on 7 hits. Mariners are also 3-0 vs Astros with Urquidy pitching with a run differential of 14.
**TLDR:** Astros coming off of a double header yesterday with a starting pitcher that Mariners have figured out.
BOL! 🔥
edit: Urquidy stat correction
Record: 1-1
Last bet: F. Fognini vs K. Khachanov (Tennis) - Khachanov ML (1.54) 2U ✅
ROI: -78.4%
Net units: -1.92 Units
A. Davidovich Fokina vs L. Musetti (Tennis) 10:30 AM EST
Tournament: Hamburg European Open
Pick: A. Davidovich Fokina ML (1.69) 3U
Write Up: Started things off well yesterday with a clean win, so looking to keep the momentum going. Firstly, looking at both of their performances this year it’s clear Fokina is the favorite, making it to the finals of Monte-Carlo and just generally being a very solid clay court player. Musetti on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent, sure he has his moments of brilliance but it’s almost never sustained enough to win a match. Especially a tough match up as this one. They are both more comfortable playing on clay than other surfaces, but given recent performances and their mental strength (Musetti losing from 2-0 up against Nole), I’m giving it to Fokina. This will be their first meeting, and I’m predicting Musetti will find it hard to break Fokina or get many winners past him and he’ll get ground down by solid clay court play. BOL!
POTD Record 5 - 2 (+5.89 units)
Today's Picks:
Tyson Frizzell Under 45.5 Player Performance 1 Units Topsport for 1.87 odds (POTD)
Game; NRL: Knights vs Roosters (game starts in 5.5 hours)
This bet is also available on bet365 for under 44.5 on Bet365 for anyone who does not have access to topsport
Reasons for
He is under this number 8 of the last 12 games and the last 4 straight.
Got very low minutes last week so might be nursing an injury or simply be out of favour in the rotation
This is a personal view but I feel that since he did a minor hamstring injury earlier in the year he has not been as effective running the ball
3 of the 4 times he has gone over in the last 12 games were either due to a try or try assist which he is unlikely to get tonight I would hope
Reasons against
\- According to nrl supercoach stats, Roosters give up the most fantasy points to back rowers
Edit: Will have some additional player prop picks in the Rugby Thread if anyone is interested
**POTD Record: 9-7 (Average Odds -105)**
**Profit: -3 Units**
**[Last Pick](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w438mr/_/igzt5ua/?context=1)**
**Todays Pick: Yakult Swallows/Hiroshima Carp over 8 runs @ -110**
**Event: Japan NPB 🇯🇵⚾️** (4:00AM CST)
**Bet: 5 Units**
⚠️EDIT: Swallows hit 2 early runs then couldn't score shit. Carp did their part with 5 late runs but wasn't enough. Ended with 7 total runs⚠️ ❌
*Shit got shaky REAL QUICK after an 8-1 start on POTD. I have a couple reasons this Japanese baseball game will go over. Love a Wake&Cash and as always we'll celebrate with a Wake&Bake breakfast blunt.*
- Number 1 and 3 Highest scoring teams in the league
- Swallows have scored 8, 5, and 8 runs last 3 games
- Hiroshima is the highest scoring team the last 5 games
- Both these teams have shaky bullpens
- Swallows have allowed the most runs in the last 5 games
*This is the highest scoring game total on the NPB card for a reason. Balls are gonna flyyy!*
**Record: 5-4 / +0.65u**
*Last: Jon Gray over 5.5Ks ❌*
**Pick: Milwaukee Brewers RL -125 (2u) vs Colorado Rockies / 8pm ET**
Yesterday’s umpire did us no favors. Moving on to today we have the Milwaukee Brewers at home with their ace Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes has a 2.14 ERA this year and across three starts in July he has a 0.89 ERA. He throws a real heavy ball, so when he’s not getting swings and misses (which he is, very often) he’s getting guys to ground out (47.6% vs the league average 44.9%). Even though the Colorado Rockies score the most runs per game at home, that quickly falls to bottom 10 in the league when they go on the road. They only average a tick above 3 runs per game on the road, which vs Burnes is not going to do the job. The Rockies are also pitching Antonio Senzatela who has a 6.86 ERA on the road and is coming off the IL (last pitched July 1). Let’s get back on the win column. BOL!
POTD Record: 0-0-0 (FIRST PICK!!!)
Today's event: FC Thun - AC Bellinzona (Switzerland Challenge League)
Pick: Under 3.5 @ 1.57
Stake: 1u
Round 2 of the SCL. Bellinzona won their first match by 1-0 while Thun is losing 1-0. I don't expect so many goals. 1.57 is a great value for under 3.5 Good Luck.
edit: result is 1-1. WON!!!
So I'm pretty new to betting sports. This is my first year getting into it and I'm just now learning about units and bank roll management. I've been picking mostly NHL and MLB parlays but let's give this a try
0-0 First pick of the day
Sport: Baseball
Event: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles
Friday July 22 @ 7:00pm EST
Pick: O/U Under 9.0 @ -120 for 2 units.
We have 2 great starting pitchers and 2 of the top bullpens. Taillon 10-2 with a 3.86 ERA and Wells has also done pretty well this year with 7-5 record and a 3.38 ERA. I think its going to be close but we'll see how I do.
Wish me luck haha
That's fair. Those games were close. I had the Astros game 1 and Yankees game 2. I wasn't expecting game 2 to be as close as it was in the 9th when they were down 7-2 haha
The last time the Yankees lost a double header was to CHW, they then faced Orioles the following day and final score was 6-4. Braves were the last team to do this back in 2020 and Yankees lost the following game 6-4 to the Mets 👀
**POTD Record**: 49 wins <> 47 losses <> 5 pushes
**Profit**: +11.825 units
**ROI**: +8.26%
**Avg odds**: 2.12
**Units Wagered**: 143
**Units Won**: 154.825
**Last Pick**: Under 3.5 goals(Asian) @ **1.875** 2u ✅
**Streak**: ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ 🅿️ ✅
**Today's pick**: Under 3 goals(Asian) @ **1.77** 2u
**Event**: FC Midtjylland - Silkeborg, Superliga, Denmark(Men's football)
- Both these teams are off to a shaky start, Silkeborg barely catching a 2-2 draw against recently promoted Lyngby, and FC Midtjylland getting a 1-1 draw at home both against Randers and Larnaca in the European matches.
- Silkeborg got their shit together late in the match against Lyngby defensively, Felix played the worst match I've seen a CB have in a while and he'll either be benched here or expect to perform. Defensive structure is what's the name of the game here for Silkeborg and I anticipate them playing defensively and with their trademark possession football.
- Midtjylland is surely expected to attack but they've been unsharp so far. Start of the season etc, but this is their third match in 6 days and it's expected that they're a bit heavy in the feet coming straight from the off-season to such an intense schedule.
- Midtjylland are without Evander(midfielder) and Sviatchenko(CB). I expect them to play a slower pace and try to control the match, which is difficult against Silkeborg if they get their funk going.
- More importantly, Silkeborg have Vallys back. He's looking to transfer to FC Copenhagen and wants to prove his value. He was sorely missed against Lyngby and imo., the missing link for the whole stack of cards to not crash.
- I expect a tactical matchup with a slow pace. Under 3 is of decent value here.
Pick of the Day Record: 28 - 23 - 0 (55%) (+0.72u)
Last Pick: Christian Javier Over 6.5 Ks -145 L
Down bad right now
7/22: Los Angeles Angels @ Atlanta Braves 7:23pm EST
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 8.5 Ks +102
Keeping this nice and simple and letting Ohtani do the work. He has been on a heater recently. Over his last 4 games he has racked up 13 Ks against the Royals, 11 against the White Sox, 10 against the Marlins, and 12 against the Astros. Easily covering this line, he should have a more favorable matchup tonight too. The Braves have been a team to fade when it comes to striking out and they are currently 3rd in the league with a K% of 24.8%. Expect some nasty stuff from Ohtani tonight.
***POTD Record: 18-12-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+15.26 units) / ROI: 22.98% / Avg Odd: 1.83*** Last pick: Martinez vs Ymer - Over 21.5 Games @ 1.74 ✅ Today's event: Thiem vs Varillas (ATP Gstaad) **Pick: Thiem Handicap -2.5 Games @ 1.82 ✅** **Stake: 5 units which is 5% of my bankroll** Starts at 4:30 AM Eastern Time After such an awful phase with 11 losses in a row, Thiem has finally found some form and is slowly climbing back to the player he was years ago before injury troubles. He made a pretty solid Bastad tournament and here in Gstaad he had to face Gaston and Delbonis which are two clay specialists so those were really solid wins Varillas is having his best ATP tournament and only plays Clay with some quality but at 26 it worries me that he is still playing Challengers all the time and I don't expect him to leave these top 120/top 80 rankings at any point. In this tournament he still hasn't faced a player with the quality that Dominic Thiem has in this surface At this stage of the event Varillas is probably the easiest opponent that Thiem could have got and with the Peruvian not having really strong qualities this is a good match for Thiem to get used to longer rallies and to dictate the point when he needs to Expecting the former top 3 in the world to bring us another solid performance [Tip Jar](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DarkHorse200) (Any donation is highly appreciated) BTC adress: 3GV97vGvecLwQDz7s4wsgJekZ2aHzbNKJk
What a lock ✊️😤
Yeah Thiem is easy money lately
wish i threw more than half a unit on this, great play looking amazing so far!
Thiem win 1st set 6-4..damn I'm late.. He's -500 now.. Not worth it
op had him on game handicap, he’s currently-3.5 @-150 if theim drops a game this set early you can definitely get it at -2.5. keep your eyes peeled just i case!
I’ve had a long ass week and haven’t been betting as much as I have been (maybe for the best). But when I see you I tail. Let’s get this bread mr Dark Horse. BOL!!
I’m in. Thiem won me a bunch of money yesterday, hoping that continues today!
Be careful with Theim in the long run lol buddy will fuck you good n hard without fail
He almost melted. Go win second set now! LFG🤞
[удалено]
I’ll double my units in honor of you
dont let that stop you from making a good bet. this one has a lot of value
Great pick
lets go horse man 🐴🐴
Let's go brother!
good job
Was thinking about putting a big bet on this last night but wanted to wait until this thread of POTD to see if anyone else was feeling Thiem. Turns out it was the very first pick upvoted, haha. Glad this all came together perfectly, great pick.
Nice brother glad to hear that you won big
Record: 9-5 (+7.25 units) Last Pick: Cam Norrie -1.5 sets vs David Goffin ❌ Today’s Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-165) vs Karen Khachanov (4 units) Reasoning: Carlos Alcaraz is an incredible young talent. He will be one of the greatest players of this decade for sure once Nadal and Djokovic slow down, and has already beaten both of those players this year. Alcaraz owns a record of 22-2 on clay this season, which is his best surface. The young Spaniard sports a career winning percentage of 78% on clay across his career. He has matched up with Khachanov once before; their first meeting came two months ago at the French Open. Alcaraz handled Khachanov with ease in this match, as he won in straight sets by scores of 6-1, 6-4, and 6-4. Khachanov is a good player in his own right, with a record of 10-6 on clay this year, but if you look into his opponents, you will see that 7 out of his 10 victories came against players ranked outside of the top 70. We are counting on Alcaraz to handle Khachanov with ease. I know 4 units is risky, but Alcaraz is a beast on clay and I think he will bring home a W for us here. To those who tail, BOL!
what book do you have these odds? i see -240 for this on DK
Carlos 2-0 is -180 and -1.5 set is -175 on bovada
DK tends to have the worst odds for this. Best odds typically are on FD and if you go to “X player to win a set No”
CARLIIITTTOOOO ✅💰🔒
He destroyed him
I got -190
This got me off my ass. Thank you 🙏🏼
POTD Record: 74-55 Profit: +16.6 Units // ROI: 13% // Average Odds: 1.87 Last Pick: Eels vs Broncos over 40.5 Points W **Todays Pick: Sydney Roosters Team Total over 24.5 vs Knights (1.87 at Bet 365) (NRL) (Starts in 7 hours)** * The Knights have allowed 30+ points in 8 of their last 9 games against teams in the top 9 of the NRL. They have actually allowed 36+ points in 7 of these 9 games and this includes allowing 40 and 42 points in their last 2 games. * The Roosters are currently in 9th position but they have a really talented squad that really should be higher in the table. Part of the reason they have struggled is because they have had quite a hard schedule so far. 10 of their 17 games so far have been against top 8 sides and they have had to face both the Panthers and Eels twice already. They have actually been playing much better in recent weeks (they have had some close losses to good sides which they were underdogs in) and this is a must win game for them if they want to keep their top 8 hopes alive. * Last week the Roosters scored 54 points against a Dragons side who are above the Knights in the table. In fact the last 2 games the Roosters played against sides in the bottom 6 they have scored 44 and 54 points. This shows that the Roosters are more than capable of putting on a big score in games they are heavily favored in. * The Roosters have scored 28+ points in 4 of their last 5 games against the Knights. This includes games of scoring 48, 42, and 38 points. * The Knights beat the Roosters earlier this season all the way back in round one. Things have changed a lot since then and I actually weirdly see this as a positive for the Roosters as it means they are less likely to underestimate the Knights heading into this game. * Weather again is my main concern here. Some rain is expected but not enough to scare me off this one. BOL, tail or fade.
Riding with you at over 25.5! BOL!
lets go! 💰
Is this supposed to say o27.5? DK has o27.5 -125
No its Supposed to be 24.5. It is still at 24.5 on Bet 365 right now. Draft Kings must just have bad odds for NRL. Fanduel also has this at 25.5 as of this comment (there is really no difference between 24.5 and 25.5).
Cheers, wanted to check because of the “28+” in the write up
Fanduel has 25.5 at -118….DraftKings thinks it will hit more than fanduel
What would you take it up to? It’s 27.5 on DK
I would probably play it up to 27.5. But I would highly suggest having multiple books so you can shop the lines. Draft Kings is by the worst line I have seen for this total. This is still at 24.5 on Bet 365 and I just checked Fanduel and it is at 25.5 there (there isn't much difference between 24.5 and 25.5 as key numbers go in multiples of 2).
Forgot to check FanDuel! Thanks!
Going with the combined total of 42.5 here. Also putting some on the alt total of 46.5.
Seems like 365 also moved the line to 26.5.
Still showing 24.5 for me although the odds have dropped from 1.87 to 1.85. Could be because we are in different regions? Either way I would expect the line to move as we get closer to kick off as a chunk of money often comes in right before the game.
You in the us? I‘m from Austria. Never knew the lines would be different by region, but always suspected as much … especially availability..
I am from down under. I do think odds change by region in certain cases. Definitely availability changes as you say though. I know that in the USA some states don't have certain sports or types of bets available.
Still looking good for total o42.5? I don't have single team totals on my book.
Would maybe look to take Roosters spread instead.
Ponga gone for the game . Helps a lot
Yeah it definitely did help. Knights started strong but really just fell off after Ponga went off.
holy crap william hill got this at 29.5 😂
That's mental. It is currently 24.5 on bet 365, 25.5 on Ladbrokes au, 26.5 on pinnacle, 27.5 on DK, and 29.5 on William hill. All at odds of between -125 and -110. Think we may of accidentally stumbled upon an arbitrage opportunity LMAO.
**EDIT: Kiwoom won 3-2, but we lost.** **KBO Record: 86-86-5** (KBO Streak L, Last 10: 7-3) Down 0.64u over 176 KBO picks, 50.3% success rate, -0.37% ROI **Last:** Hanwha +130 at Lotte (Hanwha lost 10-7.) Hanwha jumped out to a 3-0 lead through the top of the 5th before allowing 6 runs in the bottom of the fifth. But they went back up 7-6 in the top of the 7th before allowing 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th. Had every opportunity to win this one, but alas... **Pick:** Samsung at **Kiwoom -1.5 +115**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET KBO is back!!!!! The All-Star break is over and some teams are coming out of the gate with their aces. The best pitcher in the league is on the mound for the Kiwoom Heroes. He's third in the league with a 2.02 ERA and 1st with a 2.24 FIP among all qualified pitchers. He's also 1st in K% and 2nd in K/BB%. And he's second in both opponent's average and WHIP. Over his last 5 starts, he's allowed just 3 ER in 35.1 IP. He's faced this opponent 3 times and gave up 2 ER in 22.1 IP. Samsung's starter is 21st in both ERA (3.70) and FIP (3.75). He's pitched poorly against this opponent, allowing 8 ER in 11 IP over two starts. Over his last 5 starts, he gave up 17 ER in 30 IP. Samsung lost 11 games in a row before the All-Star break and now face the 2nd best team in the league. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit. For more picks, check out the KBO thread.
I ❤️ KBO picks
Honest question, why are you doing KBO if at almost 200 picks you are sitting around break even?
His picks have been great if you pay the juice for ML or include them in a 2 leg parlay for me. This was a winner today again 🙌🏼
POTDs are break even, but I pick 3 to 5 a day and have been profitable. Also, when I started 2 years ago, I was awful for awhile. I have a much better overall record over the last 100 picks or so. But the answer is easy... it's fun and I like the action.
Feeling spicy. Taking Kiwoom at -1 for +102 in the first 5. BOL
Get notified when this user posts a pick: http://discord.gg/sportsbook
Pick of the day record: 2-1 +1u Last pick: Briedablik team total over 1.5✅ 7/22: | Irish Premier Division | Dundalk vs. Finn Harps 2:45pm EST Pick: 1.75u Dundalk team total over 1.5 (-175) DraftKings✅ Tomorrow, 3rd place Dundalk host relegation zone Finn Harps in round 24 of the Irish league season. Finn Harps are enduring a terrible season, sitting 9th (out of 10 teams) with 12 points after 23 matches. They have not fared well on their travels recently, losing 7 of their last 10 road matches. In that span; they’ve conceded 2+ goals in 9 out of their last 10 away matches. Pretty simple, they’re terrible away from home. Dundalk have won 10 of their last 12 home matches, scoring 2+ goals in 9 of those 12 matches. In 2 out of the 3 matches they failed to hit this mark, they played Shamrock Rovers; the best team in Ireland, and the other was against St. Patrick’s who are directly below them in the table. Dundalk tends to show out against weaker league opposition at home, and although I don’t love the price, it’s playable. Since the slate tomorrow is rather small, and I don’t feel like forcing something on the opening match day of a different league, we’re riding with Dundalk to score twice at home. BOL and as always gamble responsibly 7 minute cash!!!!! LETS GO!
Holy cow what a hit
Sweat free!
Good lord that was fast. Ty sir
🤝
Lol great bet cashed in the 6th minute 🤑
You love to see it, thanks for the pick!
🤝
great pick sir thank you\^\^
🤝
Great job 👌
Appreciate it
Record: 36-28-3 Last pick: CHI Cubs vs NY Mets ML (-154) at Fanduel. L Today's pick: CHI Cubs vs PHI Phillies ML (-136) at Fanduel MLB: 7:06 PM EST Justin Steele is on the mound for the Cubs and his records are 3-6 for this year. For his last start against the Orioles, he threw 6 innings and allowed 4 runs. Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies and his records are 5-3 for this year. For his last start against the Marlins, he threw 6 innings and allowed only 1 run. The Cubs are still struggling with offense and keep making errors. The Phillies are overall better and Gibson would be able to shut down the Cubs offense. Expect the Phillies to get the home court win and defeats the Cubs. Edit: OMG what a disaster. All bets are 1 unit. -4.82 units Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666
I parlayed this with Boston ML. GOLD!
Thoughts on Phillies -1.5?
Oof
Got wrecked tailing this one
The ML @ -136 was sketchy at best....the line didn't make sense, based on the last 6-7 games of each team. Tough to bet on games coming out of the All Star Break...I mean, look what happened to Boston last night. :) Double down on Philly today and make back what you lost.
POTD Record: 1-1-1 Last pick: Phillies/Marlins NRFI ✅ Today's pick: Pirates/Marlins NRFI, 7:05 PM ET (-125) ✅✅✅✅✅✅ Analysis: The Marlins have been shutout in 34 straight innings. Their starter Braxton Garrett is 8-0 on NRFIs so far this year. Pirates starter Zach Thompson NRFI'd them on July 14. Pirates are missing Bryan Reynolds; Marlins are missing Jazz Chisholm and Jon Berti. This feels like easy money. I won't use the L word, but this feels like an easy enough win
How about that LA game last night. 2 outs 2 strikes. Dude throws it right down the middle and dude goes yard dead center 💀
Nice pick. Thanks!
Of course!! Better follow guys like theprofessor305 on Twitter if you’re on there and aren’t
Tailing
tailing. BOL
RECORD: 13-4 Profit: +6.82 Units Current Form: 2W Today’s Picks: Adam Amarasinghe ML vs Sam Spencer (1.83) Event: Cage Warriors 2:00Pm Est Today Reason: I like Adam in this fight as he has proven himself more in Cage Warriors to be a decent mid ranked fighter then his opponent has. Sam Spencer is currently 0-2 in Cage Warriors losing both fights by finish (1 TKO, 1 Sub). Sam is 6-3 overall but only 2 of his wins come against above .500 opponents with one being in 2016 and the other being in 2019 against a fighter at the time who was 3-0 after fighting 2 bums and getting a shocking upset over a fighter now in Cage Warriors doing well. Overall Sam’s resume is rather unimpressive and he’s not been a very active fighter either. With this fight being his second of the year after having a 3 year break. What I like from Adam is that he also has a 6-3 record but is 4-3 in Cage Warriors. Adam also went 9-0 as an amateur. His fights in Cage Warriors have been progressively getting harder with him facing more difficult opponents. He’s currently on a 2-1 stretch with his only loss coming to 15-4 Sam Creasey. It is quite late at the time I’m writing this so to sum it up if it’s confusing I just don’t see Amarasinghe losing to Spencer. All 3 of his losses come to better opponents and I don’t believe that any of Spencer’s 6 wins are against anyone as good as Amarasinghe. All Picks are 1 Unit —Let me know if your tailing— (Going to College next year, NOT mandatory at all. Anything is appreciated 🙏) Tips https://www.paypal.me/TBurr14?locale.x=en_CA
LFG! 3 Straight W’s! Congrats to everyone who tailed! 2-0 on the other Cage Warriors picks so far as well!!
thanks for the pick!
Buddy, great pick. Thank you!!! Let us know what you got cooking up next!!! Cheers!
I'll ride with this. Any other picks you like today between Bellator and CW?
I’m definitely gonna have more picks for Bellator not 100% sure on CW though. Almost all fights have heavy favourites and my book is only offering ML’s on CW. Whereas on Bellator there’s plenty of markets. Whatever else I end up taking I’ll comment under this post though.
i don't know shit, but wanted reasons to watch the metric fuckton of fights this week and having rooting interests...for what it's worth: (i'm not reformatting the tables...book, followed by american odds, followed by my pick). **CW:** Betonline -100.9 Hardwick and Darren Stewart Bovada 212 Jim Wallhead over Daniel Skibinski Bovada 120 Sam Creasey over Dylan Hazan Bovada 180 agy sardari over mike figlak Bovada 113 aimable+luke riley+omiel brown Betonline -119.6 kingsley crawford and tobias harila Betonline 300 kanisauskas over currie Bovada -103 Nathan Fletcher + kavanaugh + Urholin Betonline -125 adam amarsinghe over sam spencer **Bellator:** Betonline 165 lima over jackson Bovada 126 outlaw over tofiq Betonline -160 numagomedov ITD over chris gonzalez Bovada -155 Berkhamov over larken Bovada 188 golm over davion franklin Betonline 235 cotton over rosta Betonline 230 Arteaga over Porto Bovada -196 akhmed magomedov + Jaylon bates + Faraldo Betonline 300 king over rabadanov Bovada -140 Colgan v Nuro under 1.5 rds KSW: Betonline -100 Grzebyk and Oumar Sy Bovada 145 Dawid Smielowski over kaczmarczyk Bovada 108 emilia czerwinska and yann liasse Betonline gustavo olivera and michal pietrzak Betonline 140 kacper Koziorzebski over Meek Betonline -175 Maciejowski over kaszuba **Oktagon (much smaller bets for me):** \-130 Legierski and Vemola 120 Vemola and Jan Siroky 220 kanchev over mate 120 Paulus over kareta \-105 David Moon over Michal Konrad 118 Filip Macek and Daniel Skvor 135 michal kotalik and vaclav holota 200 Roza Gumienna over Cornilia Holm **ACA (much smaller bets for me):** 155 Froes over Suleymanov 180 Rashid magomedov over ali bagov 112.5 Grigor Matevosyan over Prado and Mehdi Baidulaev 165 Altynbeck Mamashov over Koshikin 160 myasnikov over kushagov 112.5 evolev and baidulaev 200 Pessosa over adam bogatyrev 112.5 Pavel Vitruk and baidulaev \-135 Albert Misikov over Galev 190 chuponov over limberger
What book are you on that has ACA?
Added the rest I’m taking on CW. If they go well I’ll add Bellator later
Tailing, and it gives me a reason to watch cage warriors
Originally I had planned on betting Adam but when I checked out the fighters socials I saw that Spencer posted an IG story 4 hours after weigh-ins showing him on a scale already up 19 pounds (at like 154). Given Adam is already stepping up from his usual 125 to 135 I've got a fear that if Spencer tacks on another 5+ pounds since that post he could just be big in comparison. BOL on Adam
had adam as well, but was not aware of this (not that my book allows cashing out anyway). Good info, thank you!
Rest of the picks I’m taking for CW: Madars Fleminas ML @4.33 (0.5U) Omiel Brown ML Loneer Kavanagh ML @1.75 (1U) Michal Figlak ML Daniel Skibinski ML @1.86 (1U) Kingsley Crawford ML Tobias Harila ML @1.82 (1U) Loneer Kavanagh ML Tobias Harila ML Daniel Skibinski ML @2.42 (1U) Loneer Kavanagh ML Tobias Harila ML Daniel Skibinski ML Adam Amarasinghe ML Michal Figlak ML @6.28 (0.5 U)
Thanks for the pick!
anyone know where i can watch this
UFC Fight Pass and I believe they stream the Prelims free on YouTube
I tailed, but man does Apex look rough in that first round...
[удалено]
that whole paragraph about handouts makes it seem beggy. just keep it simple and put your tip jar at the bottom and the tips will come naturally. we don't need to know your life story to why we should tip.
The odds are like -170 or something but how do you like the Padres/Mets NRFI? I was thinking of parlaying no run 1st and no run 2nd at +150 with Darvish and Scherzer pitching
I might take you up on that one!
Got through the top of the orders 🤞
Where do you get Pitcher NRFI stats?
Yesterdays performance from Germany W was as I wrote and expected, within full time due to Frohms outstanding performance, yet not as easy as the lines would suggest. I’d like to think I called it correctly by only making a 1u play, because like I said it would be a riskier play. Gz for everyone to took the extra gas options for Germany to win to nil or Austria under 0.5. That makes us 2W-0L-0P, +2.87u so far. Todays match is closer (odds wise) to the risks of betting. I feel the lines are more reflective than yesterdays game. That having said there’s two bets that I like, but to the risk of Blackstenius not starting (she was subbed in 2 out of 3 games this tournament) I will go for my secondary pick as POTD to prevent a higher chance of picking a voided bet (to score). Todays pick: Belgium Womens +2 Asian Handicap 1u. Reasoning: Belgium is as everchanging as the local weather here. They played an abysmal first game (granted most players are semi-pro’s) versus Iceland. Evrard stopping the penalty (poor shot) caused them to reach the quarters. Belgiums third game (hold your horses, I will explain the second in a bit) was a one of a kind match that’s hard to interpret. They had the advantage of a double-pass-through. Either a draw or a win would secure them a spot in todays 1/4th final. Italy played traditional cattanacio in the first halve (their reasoning is beyond me). Belgium were allowed to play aggresively, causing Italy not to be able to play into their only strength; Bonansea. If Italy (mediocre performance the entire tournament) the way the entered the second half from the get-go, I’m sure Belgium would be at home already. Why is this important you wonder? Because it shows he Belgium plays offensively as well as defensively in 1 match. Offensively they are better than defensively, mainly because of Wulleart and De Caigny opposed to just Evrard. The rest is the squad is not really impressive compared to the remaining teams still in the tournament. Now, what happened versus France in game 2? Lets play a hypothetical. If Belgium was better at defending (like, only a fair bit) they would easily be able to stop the 2nd Fench goal. It was an easy fix to stop the upcoming wingbacks as well to (wo)man-mark your target; who the hell covered Mbock? Exactly. Now imagine it was 1-1 and France got that penalty around the 87th minute or so. Imagine the backlash if it would’ve been the decisive misser resulting in a 1-1 draw. Versus Belgium. The semipros. As France. The “absolute best team” (yes, VERY overrated. This much as info for tomorrows pick. You are telling me poor little Belgium held the “amazing” France at 2-1, where france had maybe 3 good chances (scored 2)? That would promise difficulties for a less impressive Swedish squad now wouldn’t it? This does however depend on Belgium and Serneels playing defensive counter football, and unless they are mentally challenged, should play for at least the first 65-70 minutes to wear the Swedish down on key positions so Belgium can stand a much greater chance of sealing this within 90 minutes, as rheir semi pros have only been working (training for football) for the past 4 weeks now. Before that, they had normal dayjobs. You will simply not last 120 minutes (2 hours excluding injury time) versus a team of fulltime professional athletes (Sweden). Enough about Belgium, let’s look at Sweden. Currently ranked number 2 in the world (not reflective of their current form imo), taunted by 5 covid cases (of which they only confirmed 2 positive and “no comment” on the other 3), might have to alter composition slightly. As I cannot find validation for the remaining 3 and I don’t want to wait until 1 hour before match time for posting this, I will base my analysis on what is known right now. Only 1 starter (Glas) is tested positive, the other was merely an unused benchwarmer. Sure, any starter ruled out potentially is bad news, but I reckon the Swedes have enough quality to replace Glas with decent options (compared to Belgian offensive quality). Sweden played a decent game versus the Netherlands who are traditionally quite matched to each other it seems. A piss poor boring game versus Switzerland and an okay game at best versus Portugal. Yes, “okay at best” with a 5-0 win. Portugal was forced to play a benchwarmer goalie who made some pretty huge blunders. I expect Sweden to control the game and push for the lead, while I expect Belgium to hold their ground and mainly lurk for a counter when still tied. Once Sweden scored it will become interesting what Belgium will opt to do. To be honest, I see Belgium possibly netting 1 goal if Sweden is playing offensive oriented (definitely when pushing from 1 or 2-0 for a second or third goal and leave spaces for Wullaert, who’s smart in energy management and selfless up front. She’s got a good strike but is also clever with her crosses setting up teammates for a great cross or shot on target. I think its mainly due to a lack of quality from her teammates that she doesn’t have a lot of assists or pre-assists). So all in all, I think that +2 for Belgium, (meaning winning, drawing or losing by 1 goal wins our bet, and losing by 2 is a push, losing by 3 or more goals margin is an L), is pretty valuable @1.67. I think the odd should be lower, as extra time and carefulness by either team in a knockout match doesn’t seem to be calculated into this odd. Then again, low unit play as either team isn’t consistent in their performance. Rather on the safe side for profit on the long term, than risky and poor bankroll management because you just “need” to bet something every day; that’s called emotional betting due to greed, and you will lose sooner than later. Trust me, been there. Let the shitstorm for naysayers begin :D! Feel free to discuss in comments, I will reply if it has any merit. I dont like salt, only pepper on my food, thanks.
Blackstenius confirmed to start, no major Swedish players confirmed unavailable due to covid apart from Glas
As Sweden scored 1-0 in the 92nd out of 93 minutes we’ve won another bet, 3-0 and I’m starting to believe I know what I’m doing. I wanted to quickly post what I I’m leaning toward for tomorrows pick, as I don’t know at what time I will be awake and capable of posting. I will confirm tomorrow with analysis in Saturdays potd thread. For now I’m liking BTTS between France W vs the Netherlands W. For now I bid the 10 who upped my pick a goodnight and we’ll see how far we can continue this ;).
Good day yestreday, 4 out of 5 matches green and 2 out of 3 plays. All is recorded in my stats. Also posting those picks on Twitter – and I am surprised, that not many analysts have transparent stats on their profile – they chose only good days which they pin to their profile. That is sign that they are not that succesful! Watch out for this. **My record is now 48-36, +51,55 units and ROI 18,9%** (detail in Twitter profile) POTD Record: 27-17-2 / Currently +23,8 units / ROI 15,1%, Average odds: 1,88 Last pick Vilardo – Meza. Meza @ 1,83. 3/5. 3/5 ✅ 64,61 Last 5 picks – ✅✅✅❌✅ Streak – 1win and won 15 out of last 20 **Today's pick –Haerteis – Jong. Jong @ 2,1. 3/5** Event: Metzingen future, Germany. 17,45CET On the clay in Germany, local 26yrs old Haerteis plays with 22yrs old Jong from Netherland. I really do not trust Haerteis. He won 2 matches in a row for the first time since Trimbach in March on the carpet. Since then his record on clay is 4-9. In July he lost to Wiskand and here he needed 3 sets to defeat – Gavrielides 76 in 3rd set and 64,16,63 Friberg. However points on return were 39-29 in Fribergs favor. Also he had 11bp and converted 5 (in 2 matches he lost his serve 8x from 20 and that is too much) It does not seem as big form Jong is TCU player and in top 100 in ITA ranking. His record this year was 24-6. Now in Europe he defeated Mayor in Amersfoort (and lost to Van Ascche) Here he did get through qualies, then he defeated in tough match Hampe and in 2nd round pretty good Handel 63,67,63. But he lost hi serve only once from 4bp. Here I trust Jong – he is good player and Haerteis is currently not so strong, especially on clay This week I am taking break from tournaments but maybe again next week I will go somewhere. In meantime you can follow me on my Twitter My long term record: 684-667 ROI 18,3% Last 12months 283-313 19,0%
absolutely brilliant pick! thank you!
Great fight from Jong but another POTD home 😀
great first set. i hope jong will continue like that.
Me too 😀
So many break points that he hasn’t taken advantage of… Edit: pulled through!
ya he really blew this
okay big break there leggo!!
nice rally and niice pick wow what a finish
💪🏻 to be honest,we were lucky but important is ✅ 😀
is there any way to watch this match pls?
**NRL Record:** 39-37 (NRL is the Australian Rugby league competition) **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -0.46 L5: ❌✅❌✅✅ Streak: W2 **Last POTD:** Eels - Broncos Over 40.5 total points @1.90 ✅ **Today's POTD:** Roosters -8.5 @1.90 ✅ Edit: Knights proper fade material the rest of the year against any top 8 side, they actually look like they couldn't give a single fuck about playing the rest of the season. Knights simply can't beat teams higher than 10th on the ladder and have an average losing margin of 20 points throughout the year. The also haven't beaten a current top 8 side all year and haven't kept a losing margin under 10 points in all of those games. Roosters come into this in 9th position with the aim of breaking into the top 8 (top 8 is finals come end of year). They have a bunch of really difficult games coming up so they'll be looking to win and put on a massive score to help their for and against as that determines positions on the ladder when teams are in equal points. They do have a few outs this week (notably Manu) and rain may be a factor but they have lot more talent across the field and should definitely be wanting this win more than the lowly Knights. **Time:** 7 hours from time of post. **Tip Jar - ALGO:** AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
Record: 3-1, +1.75U Last pick: SF/LAD F5 U 4.5 (1.25U to win 1U) **MLB: Brewers Double Result EVEN (8:10 EDT start)** **Risk 1U to win 1U** Reasoning: My POTD yesterday was the Giants/Dodgers First 5 Under 4.5…If you didn’t stay up to watch/follow it, lemme tell ya, one of the toughest beats I’ve seen in a while. Mitch White of the Dodgers throws 5 no-hit innings and Carlos Rodon, the guy with the 12th lowest ERA in the league, gives up 5 runs, all coming with two outs, including a pop up to right that would’ve ended the 3rd at 2-0, instead the RF lost it in the lights and two runs scored, after which a double made it 5-0 and that was that. That’s gambling baby, time to move on and go get this one! We’re back to a full MLB slate today and I love it. My favorite play of the day is the Brewers Double Result against the Rockies. In case you’re not familiar with double result bets in baseball, it means that the Brewers have to be leading after 5 innings AND win the game. So if they’re tied after 5 innings, it’s a loss. There are lots of reasons I love this bet, but let’s start with the Brewers starter, reigning NL Cy Young winner, recent NL All-Star, Corbin Burnes. Burnes owns the 5th lowest ERA in the league at just 2.14 and decided not to pitch in the All-Star Game, so now he’s coming off 7 days of rest. As for the Brewers first 5 record, they’re 22-15-3 at home this season, including being 3-0 in Burnes’ last 3 starts at home. On the other side you’ve got Antonio Senzatela going for the Rockies. He’s making his first start since July 1st, when he injured his shoulder. Unbeknownst to me, Antonio is quite the actor, he has absolutely crushed his role playing Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season with his home and away splits. At home, he’s got a 4.02 ERA (not bad considering he’s pitching at Coors Field) but on the road he holds an atrocious 6.86 ERA. Not only that, but the Rockies are 15-27 on the road (28-23 at home) and an impressive 8-25-9 (worst in the league) in the first five innings on the road. As the cherry on top, favorites the first game after the All-Star break have won more than 65% of the time since 2005, including going 12-3 last year. Home favorites have also won at a nearly 64% rate since 2011. So put this all together and you get 4 words: Broncos Country, Let’s Ride
Sorry for the ignorance but what is double result? I have betMGM and DK. Not sure how to enter this bet.
Not a problem! On DK click on the game and go under ‘Game Parlays’ and scroll down to the section that says ‘1st 5 Innings/Moneyline’ and click on Brewers/Brewers. Looks like it’s moved to -150 now unfortunately but I still like it.
Bodog has it at EVEN odds. Tailing!
Awesome! I didn’t put the bet in last night, I just noticed that DK had it at -125 and my regular book didn’t have the line up yet. Sure enough, I just got it at even odds!
POTD Record: 27-25 Last pick: Dodgers -125(pending)✅ Todays pick: MLB ⚾️ Milwaukee -1.5 -115 v Colorado 6:10 pm MT Reasoning: Burnes on the hill for Brew crew, I don’t see Colorado scoring much in this one… He hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in his past 3 starts, I bet he continues that streak. Rox offensive stats are deceiving because they score way less, on average on the road away from Coors and thin CO air… They also suck on the road 15-27 compared to at home 28-23… Senza can pitch and he can keep the Rockies close in this game, but at some point in the first 6 innings he should give up a crooked number. Senza allowed 3 or more runs in 3 of past 4 starts, on road he’s allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of his 4 recent starts. Hader struggled a bit before break, but I’m betting he and the bullpen can hold the lead they should have against Rockies. Betting Brew Crew 🍻 Friday. Booo urns ⚱️ Tail or fade Tips appreciated🍀 Venmo: @Sportsnerd-_-
Rockies have hitters. Idk about the -1.5
Like who CJ Cron? Look at his home runs hit at home 16 vs against the road 5. Yes Rockies can hit at home, but they don’t put up 10+ runs on the road like the do at home, which skews their numbers. Plus Burnes is in the mound. But take the Rockies or +1.5 all u want bro. Good luck
Rockies have hitters outside of cron but yes they’re numbers do drop on the road
I love the Rockies, but their bats are Tarzan at home, Jane on the road. Brewers bats and Rockies bats pretty equal, but I like Burnes over Senza. Rox home v road splits have been skewed since 93 inaugural season. They’re different at Coors, mile high altitude.
Record: 6-2 Previous: Paul Stirling to score under 23.5 runs POTD: Shai Hope to score under 30.5 runs Sports: Cricket - West Indies vs India Odds: -110 Reason: India might be playing without Bumrah and Shami but Siraj and Avesh Khan are very good early wicket takers. Shai Hope is in bad form and under 30.5 runs looks good. He couldn't score against Bangladesh in any of the 3 games and I see the same happening tomorrow. BOL!
Hit ✅️. Hope ya tailed.
Tailed and won..thanks a ton
np my dude...I'll post one tonight as well.
POTD Record: 21-12-1 (+9.65 units) Sports Records: Basketball 6-1, Tennis 5-2, Soccer 10-9-1 Streak: 3W, 4-1 L5, 15-5-1 L21 Last Pick: Aslan Karatsev vs. Daniel Elahi Galan, Karatsev ML - ATP Hamburg Tennis WON 0.59 Units Today's Pick: Dominic Thiem vs. Juan Pablo Varillas, over 21.5 games - ATP Gstaad Tennis Units/Odds: Betting 1 Unit at 1.66 odds to win 0.66 Units (Pinnacle) Thiem's matches have covered this 7 matches in a row, Varillas hasn't dropped a set in 4 matches this tournament. I could see this one being a competitive 2 sets or a 3 setter. Good luck and don't bet your life savings on this one match ok.
Do you like thiem to win this one?
I'm not an expert or anything, just a fellow bettor, but I think he is building some good momentum, I see him winning it but I don't think it will be a dominant win.
**Record 17-9 with Avg Odds -102** LEC Summer (League of Legends) **SK Gaming ML -162** This is one of those Team A is bad but Team B is worse scenarios. BO1 so it's always riskier but SK is coming off of a 2-0 week and at least it looks like they're trying. They're sorta in that sweet spot where they aren't competing for a playoff spot so the pressure isn't that high, but they also seem to be in a groove and I think they ride this to a 3 game win streak against the one team they know they're better than. BOL
SK dominated from start to finish. GG
Record: 32-24 Cs record: 29-20 Stats: Profit:15.1U ROI- 7.8% Average odds: 1.81 Streak: 2W Last 10 ✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅ Last pick:SWS ML vs Mibr academy ✅ SWS won 16-0 on map 1 and a clean 16-8 on map 2. Free odds yesterday. Today's Pick: CSGO GamersClub Seri A Union ML vs Daotsu @1.60(5u) Continuing with this Brazilan tournament.Ends soon and we don't really have anything else so let's milk this until this is on. Not really a banger here cuz the odds are justified here but Union are still a stronger fit than Daotsu. This might prove out to be an important game since it's likely that the loser will be demoted to relegation and the winner goes on to the playoffs. What that really means is the Union will try their level best to pick up a W here instead of fooling around and throwing (This event has been pretty clean so far, we've got the results we expected and no major chokes) Join in for picks and discussions. Looking to expand into football as well once the season starts. Mostly cs rn https://discord.gg/dyKXcebw6k
What book are you using to get these games ?
POTD Record: 29-16-2 Last five picks: ✅❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: ATP. Hamburg Francisco Cerundolo — Andrey Rublev Andrey Rublev W and Total o21.5 +136 ❌ awfull umpiring made my boy really mad. Rublev has just once more shown that he is a mental midget. Today’s pick: MLB Atlanta Braves — Los Angeles Angels Angels -1 +183 Back to MLB. And also wanting to be a bit greedy today (it’s going to be a great Friday I feel), so going for Angels against Braves. Angels started the season strong and then they went to being a shitty team, but it is changing now. Ohtani, the man who single-handedly can win games, on the mound today. This Japanese is of insane skill (you know that for sure) and he will win the game for the Angels. He also hasn’t scored a home run in a while, so putting half a unit on that too. This is how I win, mfs. BOL Any tip in BTC would be appreciated: 3FN6we7NLjVvn53mByMb9wJZsdwCvguNiS
**Record:** 39-48-1 **ROI:** -19% :-16.25 u (@ $5.00) **Average Odds:** 1.86 **Streak:** L L W W W |Baseball |MLB |8:20pm Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels: **Atlanta Braves ML @ 1.65 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 66% chance for the Atlanta Braves to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.65 is only 61%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
**POTD Record: 1-0 / Units: +0.80 / ROI: 80%** [**Previous pick**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w2frvl/pick_of_the_day_71922_tuesday/igqy3to/?context=3) **Todays pick: Haase R. / Oswald P. ML vs Martinez P. / Munar J. @ 1.84** **Stake: 1 unit** *First of all, sorry guys because english is not my native language. I´ll try to do my best.* *So I was scrolling through todays matches and I found this, and I think it is a great opportunity.* *We are talking about 2 top doubles players with a lot of trophies in this modality. They have only played together once but they won that tournament (Umag 2019).* *They will play against 2 players that are not focused on doubles and have their individual games today. Also, none of them have great results in doubles no matter what their teammate is.* *Im expecting a game where our guys will give everything they got and the spaniards wont care at all about this game since they will be more tired and focused in their individual games.* *Also, our guys should be better because they have a playstyle that suits more this kind of games with great serves and domination of the net, while the spaniards dont have great serves and their attributes are better for the individual games.* *More info for you guys. Pedro Martinez is going to lose against Berrettini so theres no point for him to win this game. He should play the game to get paid but lose, since he should leave Gstaad asap to start preparing his next tournament in Kitzbuhel. His next week is very important because he will defend a lot of ATP ranking points since he got to the final there last year.* *BOL*
The game has just started. BOL
*POTD Record: 1-2 / Units (-1.0) / Avg Odds: 2.50 |* Last pick: *Onix Buffaloes -1.5* **L** Todays Event: Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Elks Last pick was looking really good until a random late run cut the Buffaloes 2 run lead to one. Off the Japanese baseball for right now, this CFL matchup tonight is a loaded with some great value. The Blue Bombers are 6-0, a high scoring offence, however with their star receiver just placed on a 1 day injury list, Its time for another one of their receivers to shine. Carlton Agudosi has just cracked the scene in Winnipeg, scoring his first 2 touchdowns last game against Calgary. At 6’6 , coming off a hot performance and their top receiver out, I expect Agudosi to get fed at least another one tonight in the end zone. Star returner Janorian Grant will get the start at receiver tonight as well, but with his speed I see him luring defenders towards him, leaving Agudosi open for targets. *PICK:* **CARLTON AGUDOSI ANY TIME TD @ 1.90** - Love this pick so Im going 3 Units on it. Cheers!
I like this. Agudosi looked great in the endzone last week. Big and strong making contested catches. Only one game, but looks like he ticks the boxes to be a threat in the CFL. I also don’t see the Bombers scoring much on the ground tonight.
Thats what Im thinking, looks like they trust him with 1 on 1 toss ups in those massive end zones. Hopefully he gets more than his 6 receptions in the last game with their stair receiver who had 11 out!
PotD Record 2-1 Today AFL Fremantle to beat Richmond (@2.32 Sportsbet) sportsbet have super boost on this that takes it from 1.98 to 2.32. Value value value, though I consider it to be a 50-50 after both teams coming off an L (Richmond to North melb). I can't just pass up freo at over 2$ against a team that gave North it's 2nd win of the year last week. Richmond seem to have all the power in the right places but a number of inconsistencies have been identified and at these odds I'll be slamming freo tonight. BY NO MEANS A LOCK, BOL IF TAILING 👌
Super boost on spetsbet isn't the same for everyone, my super boost was with Richmond, some people might not have a boost on this gane at all.
Righto, regardless freo normal odds boost on any bookie takes it over 2.03. Still love it and hope tigers fade late third i think they looking tired 🙏
// **Record**: 9-3 // **Profit**: 12.19u // **ROI**: 50.79% // **Avg Odd**: 2.00 // **Today's pick**: ***fnatic ML*** vs. Fun Plus Phoenix ***@ 1.705 (Valorant***) Im really short on time right now but wanted to post this beauty. fnatic is the clear favorite here for me and the odds are just delicious. Since the addition from the turkish god and talent Alfajer fnatic never lost a game to FPX. Head 2 head is 4-0 for fnatic while FPX only winning two maps in fours matches played. Both teams had a four day break and could prepare for this match up. Surely FPX has Suygetsu on his side an really talented russian kid but i think Alfajer is better. Also i like fnatic much more as an team and they have some really stable maps and plays. This is the lower bracket so both teams will fight for their life and in the end fnatic will win.
Big L.
Record: 3-0 +4.0u (MLB 3-0 +4.0u) Recent Picks: 7/21 MLB - Astros ML (Game 1 of DH) -130 @ 1.3u ✅ 7/17 MLB - White Sox ML -125 @ 1.25u ✅ 7/16 MLB - Guardians/Tigers Over 8.5 -105 @ 2.1u ✅ Today’s Pick: MLB - Seattle Mariners ML +103 @ 2u (Game starts at 10:10 PM) Houston Astros just played a double header against the Yankees in Houston yesterday before having to travel to Seattle last night. Jose Urqidy has allowed 5+ runs in each of his 3 starts against the Mariners. Urquidy’s Combined Stats against Mariners this season: 13 IP 27 H 17 R 7 BB. Mariners ended the first half on a 14 game win streak and have won 17/L18 games. Also have a record of 24-20 at home and 34-19 as underdogs. Mariners also have been off since 7/17. In his 3 starts against the Astros this season, Marco Gonzalez Combined Stats are: 20.1 IP 17 H 6 R 1 BB 10 K. Mariners bullpen will be fresh, Astros bullpen played two games yesterday and traveled last night. Result: Mariners lose 5-2 ❌
waiting on that sweet, sweet u/billdb pick...if it's Philly Phoenix, I may have to jump on the train for the 20 minute ride into the city...googled to see if there were AUDL games tonight and saw the first one is a 15 minute drive away from me...crazy (sorry, I moved just outside of Philly 11/2020, being this close to a major city is still very novel.)
There are apparently no lines this week and they might not be coming back at all :( https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/vzqivk/ultimate_frisbee_71522/ih5bytj You should def go to that game though. Philly-New York was a two goal game last time. Philly is one of the audl teams that's been surging up this year and they will bring a ton of energy against the undefeated Empire. Should be a blast
I think you helped kill it haha. You did insanely well last week and anybody who tailed (like me) crushed it. I won like $3000. They didn’t like that. Seems like it should be a drop in the bucket to them but I’ll bet the sport as a whole was not profiting.
Oh wow very nice. Yeah I saw elsewhere on twitter someone had taken (and promoted) the San Diego ML at +600 so I think that was probably the dagger for them. A shame, frisbee is so much fun
Damn, that's super sad to hear, your picks were clutch and I just got back into playing them last week (killer week, thank you)...that's awesome to hear, if it cools down tonight I may head out that way. Thank you again for the picks and the info!
Yup no problem. I think Philly has one more home game after this if it's too hot tonight, against Ottawa
If you want another user who is really good at a more niche sport, follow u/neutralbetting. He’s really damn good at darts. Hits about 2/3 of the time, often with plus odds.
My first POTD Pick: Tour de France Stage 19 H2H Pogacar v Vingegaard: Vingegaard (2.75) Todays stage is very likely to be a bunch sprint as this year there have been very few flat stages so the sprinters teams need a win and will likely reel in the breakaway. Vingegaard has a 3 minute lead and has a massive incentive to stay at the front. Typically the team of the yellow jersey will try and keep him at the front incase if any crash that he is in front of it and doesn’t get hurt or lose time if it’s outside the final stage. Pogacar will likely be riding his wheel anyway as he has mostly done recently and has no incentive to sprint here. Pogacar will not be allowed to be in a break. I think this is mis priced on the history that Pogacar has been sprinting for the line when trying to get small time gains. Don’t see that being the case today.
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Wrong thread bud, but tailing and appreciate your picks.
Thank you for pointing this out lol
Record 3-0 PICK Miami Marlins Vs Pittsburgh Pirates (UNDER 0.5 Runs 1st Inning) ✅️ ODDS - Fanduel (1.78) This game features two of the worst 1st Inning scoring teams in the league, Miami is ranked 29th and Pittsburgh 28th. Both teams also rank near the bottom in hits and runs per game. Looking for these type of numbers to continue in today's game.
Long time lurker gonna try and start posting my plays here 🤞🏽 **POTD Record: 0-0** MLB | 10:10 est **Pick:** **Mariners ML** vs Astros @+108 **Stake: 2 units** **Write Up:** Houston is coming off of a a double header yesterday vs NYY where they swept them. Although Yordan looked great in his return Altuve and Tucker (two all stars) struggled, I don’t think the quick flight to Seattle will help with that. Last time Urquidy faced the Mariners he was pulled after 4.1 IP walking a career high 4 batters with 5 runs on 7 hits. Mariners are also 3-0 vs Astros with Urquidy pitching with a run differential of 14. **TLDR:** Astros coming off of a double header yesterday with a starting pitcher that Mariners have figured out. BOL! 🔥 edit: Urquidy stat correction
**Yesterday's Top Picks of the Day** | Ranking | Names | Score | |:-:|:-:|:-:| |1|[staticbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w438mr/pick_of_the_day_72122_thursday/ih07fqt/)|72| || |2|[DarkHorse200](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w438mr/pick_of_the_day_72122_thursday/igzqcx8/)|38| || |3|[neutralbetting](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w438mr/pick_of_the_day_72122_thursday/ih1916e/)|32| || |4|[Tricky-Travy](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w438mr/pick_of_the_day_72122_thursday/ih029xy/)|27| ||
Record: 1-1 Last bet: F. Fognini vs K. Khachanov (Tennis) - Khachanov ML (1.54) 2U ✅ ROI: -78.4% Net units: -1.92 Units A. Davidovich Fokina vs L. Musetti (Tennis) 10:30 AM EST Tournament: Hamburg European Open Pick: A. Davidovich Fokina ML (1.69) 3U Write Up: Started things off well yesterday with a clean win, so looking to keep the momentum going. Firstly, looking at both of their performances this year it’s clear Fokina is the favorite, making it to the finals of Monte-Carlo and just generally being a very solid clay court player. Musetti on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent, sure he has his moments of brilliance but it’s almost never sustained enough to win a match. Especially a tough match up as this one. They are both more comfortable playing on clay than other surfaces, but given recent performances and their mental strength (Musetti losing from 2-0 up against Nole), I’m giving it to Fokina. This will be their first meeting, and I’m predicting Musetti will find it hard to break Fokina or get many winners past him and he’ll get ground down by solid clay court play. BOL!
POTD Record 5 - 2 (+5.89 units) Today's Picks: Tyson Frizzell Under 45.5 Player Performance 1 Units Topsport for 1.87 odds (POTD) Game; NRL: Knights vs Roosters (game starts in 5.5 hours) This bet is also available on bet365 for under 44.5 on Bet365 for anyone who does not have access to topsport Reasons for He is under this number 8 of the last 12 games and the last 4 straight. Got very low minutes last week so might be nursing an injury or simply be out of favour in the rotation This is a personal view but I feel that since he did a minor hamstring injury earlier in the year he has not been as effective running the ball 3 of the 4 times he has gone over in the last 12 games were either due to a try or try assist which he is unlikely to get tonight I would hope Reasons against \- According to nrl supercoach stats, Roosters give up the most fantasy points to back rowers Edit: Will have some additional player prop picks in the Rugby Thread if anyone is interested
Where are You seeing this in bet 365 I can’t find it in any category
Go to the "Score" section (no idea why they place it there it isnt really intuitive is it)
**POTD Record: 9-7 (Average Odds -105)** **Profit: -3 Units** **[Last Pick](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/w438mr/_/igzt5ua/?context=1)** **Todays Pick: Yakult Swallows/Hiroshima Carp over 8 runs @ -110** **Event: Japan NPB 🇯🇵⚾️** (4:00AM CST) **Bet: 5 Units** ⚠️EDIT: Swallows hit 2 early runs then couldn't score shit. Carp did their part with 5 late runs but wasn't enough. Ended with 7 total runs⚠️ ❌ *Shit got shaky REAL QUICK after an 8-1 start on POTD. I have a couple reasons this Japanese baseball game will go over. Love a Wake&Cash and as always we'll celebrate with a Wake&Bake breakfast blunt.* - Number 1 and 3 Highest scoring teams in the league - Swallows have scored 8, 5, and 8 runs last 3 games - Hiroshima is the highest scoring team the last 5 games - Both these teams have shaky bullpens - Swallows have allowed the most runs in the last 5 games *This is the highest scoring game total on the NPB card for a reason. Balls are gonna flyyy!*
Riding with ma boi
🏇💨
i keep letting you down SMH!!!
I paid the juice for over 6.5 so this won for me! 💸
**Record: 5-4 / +0.65u** *Last: Jon Gray over 5.5Ks ❌* **Pick: Milwaukee Brewers RL -125 (2u) vs Colorado Rockies / 8pm ET** Yesterday’s umpire did us no favors. Moving on to today we have the Milwaukee Brewers at home with their ace Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes has a 2.14 ERA this year and across three starts in July he has a 0.89 ERA. He throws a real heavy ball, so when he’s not getting swings and misses (which he is, very often) he’s getting guys to ground out (47.6% vs the league average 44.9%). Even though the Colorado Rockies score the most runs per game at home, that quickly falls to bottom 10 in the league when they go on the road. They only average a tick above 3 runs per game on the road, which vs Burnes is not going to do the job. The Rockies are also pitching Antonio Senzatela who has a 6.86 ERA on the road and is coming off the IL (last pitched July 1). Let’s get back on the win column. BOL!
POTD Record: 0-0-0 (FIRST PICK!!!) Today's event: FC Thun - AC Bellinzona (Switzerland Challenge League) Pick: Under 3.5 @ 1.57 Stake: 1u Round 2 of the SCL. Bellinzona won their first match by 1-0 while Thun is losing 1-0. I don't expect so many goals. 1.57 is a great value for under 3.5 Good Luck. edit: result is 1-1. WON!!!
So I'm pretty new to betting sports. This is my first year getting into it and I'm just now learning about units and bank roll management. I've been picking mostly NHL and MLB parlays but let's give this a try 0-0 First pick of the day Sport: Baseball Event: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Friday July 22 @ 7:00pm EST Pick: O/U Under 9.0 @ -120 for 2 units. We have 2 great starting pitchers and 2 of the top bullpens. Taillon 10-2 with a 3.86 ERA and Wells has also done pretty well this year with 7-5 record and a 3.38 ERA. I think its going to be close but we'll see how I do. Wish me luck haha
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That's fair. Those games were close. I had the Astros game 1 and Yankees game 2. I wasn't expecting game 2 to be as close as it was in the 9th when they were down 7-2 haha
The last time the Yankees lost a double header was to CHW, they then faced Orioles the following day and final score was 6-4. Braves were the last team to do this back in 2020 and Yankees lost the following game 6-4 to the Mets 👀
**POTD Record**: 49 wins <> 47 losses <> 5 pushes **Profit**: +11.825 units **ROI**: +8.26% **Avg odds**: 2.12 **Units Wagered**: 143 **Units Won**: 154.825 **Last Pick**: Under 3.5 goals(Asian) @ **1.875** 2u ✅ **Streak**: ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ 🅿️ ✅ **Today's pick**: Under 3 goals(Asian) @ **1.77** 2u **Event**: FC Midtjylland - Silkeborg, Superliga, Denmark(Men's football) - Both these teams are off to a shaky start, Silkeborg barely catching a 2-2 draw against recently promoted Lyngby, and FC Midtjylland getting a 1-1 draw at home both against Randers and Larnaca in the European matches. - Silkeborg got their shit together late in the match against Lyngby defensively, Felix played the worst match I've seen a CB have in a while and he'll either be benched here or expect to perform. Defensive structure is what's the name of the game here for Silkeborg and I anticipate them playing defensively and with their trademark possession football. - Midtjylland is surely expected to attack but they've been unsharp so far. Start of the season etc, but this is their third match in 6 days and it's expected that they're a bit heavy in the feet coming straight from the off-season to such an intense schedule. - Midtjylland are without Evander(midfielder) and Sviatchenko(CB). I expect them to play a slower pace and try to control the match, which is difficult against Silkeborg if they get their funk going. - More importantly, Silkeborg have Vallys back. He's looking to transfer to FC Copenhagen and wants to prove his value. He was sorely missed against Lyngby and imo., the missing link for the whole stack of cards to not crash. - I expect a tactical matchup with a slow pace. Under 3 is of decent value here.
Dortmund first half +100
Pick of the Day Record: 28 - 23 - 0 (55%) (+0.72u) Last Pick: Christian Javier Over 6.5 Ks -145 L Down bad right now 7/22: Los Angeles Angels @ Atlanta Braves 7:23pm EST Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 8.5 Ks +102 Keeping this nice and simple and letting Ohtani do the work. He has been on a heater recently. Over his last 4 games he has racked up 13 Ks against the Royals, 11 against the White Sox, 10 against the Marlins, and 12 against the Astros. Easily covering this line, he should have a more favorable matchup tonight too. The Braves have been a team to fade when it comes to striking out and they are currently 3rd in the league with a K% of 24.8%. Expect some nasty stuff from Ohtani tonight.
I like this and it's +110 right now on DK, BOL