[Barnwell] Was always going to be tough to find someone to eat even a significant portion of the $11 million he was owed this year. Cook's RYOE was bad and his Success Rate was brutal last year - interested to see what his market looks like.

You can't just go throwing around terms like RYOE and just assume people know what you're talking about.


You can't just go throwing around terms like RYOE and just assume people know what you're talking about.


Rushing yards over expected.


What the hell is even that!?






Rushing yards over expected. It's basically yards after contact but way, way better. I've only brought it up once because I don't have the account to prove it anymore, but I conceptualized the stat and submitted it to a thread requesting new ideas for next gen stats. From there it was given to a couple of data scientists from I think Austria who went on to win awards for creating the model that makes the stat work. I couldn't recommend reading their paper more. It's a good read if you're into that sorta thing.


Yeah? Well I came up with the idea for the fried peanut butter and bacon sandwich. I’ll let the other commenters decide what’s more impress…


It's yours already. Hands down. No contest. And seriously you didn't have to flex that hard on me.


Imma make one after my next grocery trip and let you know how I like it


There was a reddit thread for that? Do you have the link?


I wish. Cause I'd at least have that to point to. I'm sure it's archived or deleted because I spent some time looking for it more than once. If that was intentional, I can see why. Those guys won a nifty sum (like 50k I think) and no one had a way to contact me because of the deleted account. To be 100% clear: I am 0% butthurt about the whole thing. I've thought about emailing those guys for years, but I don't want to put anyone in an awkward position. It's a neat little thing to tell my friends and I'm cool with it staying there.


It seems they liked your idea of developing it as a stat and then that was what the 2020 Big Data Bowl project idea ended up being. Without checking, I'd assume like 50 teams entered that year but the winning team was maybe from Austria. I'll come back later and edit to have the correct info. Did you build a model out or was it more of just a concept for it? Edit: Winning team was from Austria, NFL says 2000 people entered but realistically they probably got 50-ish finished projects.


That all jives with what I've been able to find, too. It was concept only. I would have never been able to take it any further than that. What those guys were able to do with it is phenomenal.


Thank you - I was like, *Return Yield Over Expenditures??*


My brain kept saying "return yards on Eenvestment", which is aggressively wrong but what kept popping into my head.


Same except I had Equity for E


Barnwell is a huge dork


> just assume people know what you're talking about. Really? You oughta essume.


rush yards over expected


Rush yards over expected


[Link](https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/over-expected-explained-what-are-cpoe-ryoe-and-yacoe/) "In this particular regard, Rushing Yards Over Expected, or RYOE, isn’t the best performer. RYOE uses field position, defensive alignment, and player tracking data (depending on provider) to determine how many more yards a rusher gained than we’d expect an average rusher to gain in the same situation. We know that defenses like to load boxes and run commit against good rushers, so it would seem that no position needs a context correcting Over Expected metric more than running backs. Unfortunately, RYOE may not fully get us there: RYOE has almost no predictiveness from one season to the next. Meaning, a rusher with a positive RYOE in one season is essentially a coinflip for a negative RYOE in the next. Only after 4 seasons of data (and serious selection bias) do we reach the same level of signal as CPOE and YACOE. While RYOE may be the best tool we have for measuring career RB performance, what does it really mean to lead the league in RYOE for one season? To be clear, this isn’t saying the underlying expected rushing yard model is inaccurate. Rather, it’s saying that when there are deviations from the model, we don’t know how to attribute them. Unless we believe the skill of individual RBs radically changes year-to-year, a single season of RYOE doesn’t tell us any more about true rushing ability than something simpler like yards per attempt. Though this detail may seem minor, it’s actually quite important to how we view Over Expected metrics as an evaluative framework."


Seems very similar to xG in f̶o̶o̶t̶b̶a̶l̶l̶ soccer. On a game to game basis it can be collected but doesn't actually provide much insight, whereas over the length of a season or multiple it pretty reliably predicts which teams/players are under/overperforming.


Eye test says he's washed, but maybe he can bounce back. Hes probably best in a 8-10 carry committee at this point


Eye test says he's injury prone and was lucky to play 17 games last year. Injury prone RBs never age well unless you're Frank Gore.


If he's willing to take the ~$4-5M range to be that, then Miami is a great situation for him. I think someone will give him $7-8M and probably be making a mistake.


I’m going to go the other side of the free agency coin and say he will have a 8,500 yard and 40 TD season due to the grass is greener on the other side excuse. The yin to the yang when a player leaves one place for the other.


If you thought Ezekiel Elliots market was bad, wait until you see this guy's


But can Dalvin Cook take snaps under center? Asking the real questions here.


I understand why RBs earn a lot less money than they used to. I also understand why you may only want to guarantee them one year max because of the risk of injury. However somebody has to explain to me why teams are happily paying a mediocre ass "blocking WR" Corey Davis $13m APY but $11m for slightly declining Dalvin Cook who's still a 3 down back is too much? To me it feels like some teams are depressing RB wages to the extreme just because they can based on the market environment. Not because the dollar amount actually reflects the value the player provides on the field.


Well personally I don’t think Cook has slightly declined. He’s below replacement level according to the advanced stats we have for RBs. I wouldn’t quite pay Davis 13m either but WR is a much much more valuable position