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Odds of pulling a specific Mythic Rare?

Odds of pulling a specific Mythic Rare?

broakland

Just buy the card. I’ve had the scenario where I bought the card and then pulled it happen exactly once, and it made for a fantastic gift for a homie. If your group is cool and somebody else has one maybe you can trade for it but yeah don’t expect to pull it.


Hmukherj

There are 20 mythics and 64 rares, so the odds should be around 1 in 148 to open Arlinn in the rare slot of any given pack. Moral of the story, if you just want Arlinn, buy her outright. She's only $15 - you could buy a whole playset for less than the cost of a box. Edit: For a little bit more math, you'd have to open ~103 draft boosters *to have even a 50% chance of cracking her.*


Elemteearkay

>There are 20 mythics and 64 rares, so the odds should be around 1 in 148 to open Arlinn in the rare slot of any given pack. Does the fact that she's a TDFC make any difference? (Anecdote time: I've done 3 Pre-Releases and 3 Drafts, played a bunch of packwars with prize packs... and I've not even *seen* an Arlin yet - I've not even been in the same room as one) >Moral of the story, if you just want Arlinn, but her outright. Yep, that gives you 100% odds of getting her.


Hmukherj

>Does the fact that she's a TDFC make any difference? It almost certainly does, but I don't think Wizards has released enough information for us to say exactly how much of a difference it is. I'd guess that the 1/148 number slightly underestimates the odds to pull any mythic, TDFC or not. Normal mythics are probably still 1 in 121 (assuming they've kept the 121 card sheets), so it would make sense that they collate the packs so that Arlinn is roughly the same rarity. That being said, it doesn't change the conclusion that if you're after a specific card, singles are the way to go.


Armored_Soul0

Thanks for the response! I really liked this theme and the whole day night cards so I figured a booster set box would get me started building a new deck and Arlinn would be a bonus. I was planning to buy her outright if the box didn’t produce her


w_nightshade

You, sir, are doing it right. Buy a box if you want - cracking packs is fun! - but don't do it just to get specific cards. Also, autocorrect changed 'specific' to 'sourdough' and I regret fixing it.


MindMaster0201

The odd is so low that you're better off buying single if you want Arlinn. Cracking packs is never a good way to get a specific card you want.


robertleeblairjr

Mythic Rare are 1:8 draft boosters. I’d wager the odds are still only slightly increased, if not about the same. Set boosters are cheaper because of reduced commons and lack of interest. However, they were intended to be more expensive. https://mtg.fandom.com/wiki/Set_Booster


ShadowbornPhoenix

Idk where you are getting your set boosters from but they are more expensive then draft boosters here easily lol


robertleeblairjr

I’ve seen set about the same as draft before when there should be a large difference. ZR set box I purchased for 95 in comparison to 90 for the draft. Just look.


ShadowbornPhoenix

Set booster boxes have 30 packs, draft boxes have 36 packs in your example the cost of set packs in your box was 3.1 each compared to 2.5 each in the draft box. My lgs has set packs at around 5 and draft around 4 which is high however the same trend follows throughout the UK (base price, no sales or discounts) set boosters are always marked more expensive than draft boosters at the base level. There shouldnt be a large price difference between set and draft boosters and there never has been, are you maybe getting confused with collectors boosters which are the really expensive ones? They're about 4x the cost of a draft booster roughly depending where you buy it from


robertleeblairjr

Yeah. I never said they were always cheaper. But, based upon the supposed pricing, then I’ve seen set cheaper per pack when they want to move them. For IV, they should always be higher. But, I guess they’re not as popular as draft for collecting when your MR and R pull rate doesn’t change very much. You have to shop around and wait to buy. I never do prerelease unless it was a good deal on a case to flip. Most of the time, I go draft or collector.


ShadowbornPhoenix

Yeah I don't know where you're getting your information from but it's the complete opposite here, sales of set boosters outstrip draft boosters by far, the combination of the list plus the fact you can frequently open at least 2 rares per pack is insane for collecting a set, the pull rate actually does change in the favour of set boosters. If you are able to get set boxes that cheaply that they're the same price as a draft box you should 100% be flipping that sealed for profit every time you can buy one


robertleeblairjr

Hell Amazon Kaldheim draft are more than set right now. I don’t know where you guys are buying set boxes when they are this close and sometimes cheaper.


robertleeblairjr

Usually, in cases is where I’ve gotten set boxes the same or cheaper. Not sure how often you guys look, but it can be found. Just looked online for a quick peak at AFR to see 93-100 for set. Draft at 95-100. What’s the surprising part? Draft are used more and in demand.


ShadowbornPhoenix

We definitely aren't near each other then because AFR is not close to 90 here you can pick up boxes of AFR set and draft for around 80 pretty easily. It's probably a case of different buying habits in different locations


robertleeblairjr

You can get ‘em cheap through certain FaceBook groups whereby smaller local LGS or individuals who play MTG like stocks will cut deals to members in the group. Innistrad was offered at some fairly low rates for a case by Magnolia.


ShadowbornPhoenix

Magnolia is a US company, I'm from the UK it seems like US buying habits differ from the EU ones, unless you're stocking for a store you generally buy set boosters her because its a better chance to make your money back without the booster costing a bunch


Alphastrikeandlose

That was 5 sets ago thats probably why the price is lower...


robertleeblairjr

Yeah, there’s a more noticeable price difference on new released sets. But, look at AFR, 95-100 for set and about 90-95 for draft. Over time, price decreases to meet the same for each box. You’ve been spending too much to have the newest, shiny toy it seems.