T O P

Top lines in the NHL, according to xGF%

Top lines in the NHL, according to xGF%

Bunzy10

That top line for the bruins has literally never been bad


Queltis6000

Absolute envy line. You guys are so lucky. Now switch up Pasta with Crosby and that's all the reason you need to keep them together for the Olympics.


istandwhenipeee

Marchand and Crosby are the most unfair guys to share the ice for puck possession, both of them have such wild edge work and stick work in tight spaces to the point where if they ever get possession they rarely lose it. Crosby is arguably the best ever at that, and Marchand may be the next best active player at it, it’s the biggest reason he’s as good as he is. Add in Bergeron who is basically the ideal chemistry guy who always knows where to be for guys like that to work off him along with all 3 being great defensively and it’s just a perfectly designed line.


Queltis6000

Agree with everything you said. Plus the fact that they're all very cerebral players which is a huge part of why they're so good defensively - they can anticipate so well and read the play so they're in a good position. Crosby and Bergeron have this reputation of course, but I'm not sure Marchand is given as much credit as he deserves in this space.


istandwhenipeee

Yeah Marchand definitely deserves to be in the conversation as one of the best defensive wings in hockey, I think he just doesn’t always get as much credit as deserved because he shares the ice with maybe the best defensive forward ever and his offense and dirty plays also overshadow his defense.


blunsr

Funny/odd to think of Marchand as cerebral; but i agree that he is, even when he's being an a55.


helllllohaley

You’re totally right about that last part, I don’t think people give him enough credit because people see him as a goon and that overshadows his skills, or people are just more focused on other prominent B’s players (and there are many). Sometimes it’s almost like it doesn’t matter how good he is because everyone will always remember ~the lick~ lol. There’s no denying though that he’s a wicked good player and I’m sure any team would love to have him on their roster (and this is coming from a Flyers fan). Marchand is definitely the guy everyone loves to hate.


jessemadnote

And that’s possibly Canada’s SECOND line. The first could feasibly be Mcdavid-Mackinnon-Marner


Jazzlike_Kick_5434

Can Marner skate with those 2? I might be tempted to go with Barzal. That would give you arguably the 3 fastest guys in the world, playing together on international sized ice.


jessemadnote

Oh man never thought of him. Damn now that’s a line


Decent_Foundation_62

I think they're playing on NHL size ice for the Olympics. Which is sad, because I was really excited for 20 minutes a game of McDavid end to end rushes skating through the d


Jazzlike_Kick_5434

Really? Good to know. Historically, North American teams have had some trouble adjusting. But with how the teams are shaping up I think they would've been fine this time. Canada has the best group of forwards and the US has the best d and goalies. I would expect them to meet in the gold medal game.


I_Am_Vladimir_Putin

You could say that Marchand learned, literally, from the best.


Tyrxgow

Not to mention that bergy is the best faceoff guy in the business...Crosby isn't exactly a slouch at it, and Marchand is actually not terrible himself...chances are if there's a faceoff with that group on the ice, the puck is already there's.


abbytarar

Maybe in the playoffs sometimes


[deleted]

Ugh. The St. Louis series


GtEnko

If Bouwmeester and Parayko weren't shutting you guys down so effectively things would've been very different.


[deleted]

There were a lot of things in the series that were a bummer, I believe Pasta had aggravated his thumb injury too.


Cal1gula

Rask playing injured. Coyle playing injured. Basically all 6 starting defense injured. Then they all played horribly. And the refs were shit. Man that was a disappointing series.


bernardsunders

I’m still pissed at the refs for not calling that trip on Noel and subsequently having dumb Blues fans call him a diver. If there’s one guy who plays the game the right way it’s Noel


[deleted]

Yeah, trying to not be salty and make excuses but Chara with a broken jaw and that ridiculous tripping non call… oh well. Didn’t get it done


Bigblueforyou

Idk, I had a good time


Frankie__Spankie

I really hate how it's always, "These guys just didn't show up for that series!" whenever a team doesn't score and it's never, "These guys really shut the other team down!" You see it all the damn time. Nobody ever gives good defense credit.


GtEnko

Especially in literally the playoffs, where everyone is playing at such an incredibly high level.


victoryforZIM

It's not that they're bad, other teams just can safely focus their entire effort on that line knowing that the rest of the Bruins will never be a threat. In the regular season teams don't put the same kind of effort or gameplan in.


istandwhenipeee

Yeah that’s why I think aside from a trade our only path to contention is Hall finding a way to get back towards his MVP season production at least to some degree where he could carry a line. He doesn’t necessarily need to get to that level, but if he can get close to a point per game it would be huge for our secondary scoring. I guess the revamped bottom 2 lines could also chip in more, especially if DeBrusk can bounce back, but they’re inability to produce the past few years has left me traumatized and unable to believe they can improve lol.


c71score

Who needs Crosby and Malkin when you have Evan Rodrigues at center.


ottertits

Our Swiss Army knife 🤣 Fr tho I *love* this guy and everything he brings to the game has been on full display this year.


Blynasty

E-Rod doesn’t take part of a shift off. 100% 100% of the time. Have to admire that.


qqqalto

Erod but he’s a full-fledged penguin now :(


marcseveral

I miss him and his goofy face so damn much.


flyfishing

Best DSL in the league


pigfeet2002

I watched rodrigues like 4-5 nights a year playing buffalo and was always noticing him the most like clockwork. underrated player


StealthTomato

“of course the Penguins top line is on here… wait, who are any of these guys”


ImSoHalleman

Perfect example of a guy who was in a terrible situation in Buffalo take advantage on a good club. He’s earning a payday.


punkr0x

Rodrigues has been a 13th forward in Pittsburgh going on 3 years now. Nice to see him take advantage of his chance to play on the first line, but he's going to have a tough time keeping a roster spot once Crosby, Malkin and Carter are all back.


LordCaedus13

Red Wings and Sabres having lines here is a twist


TheSewallSyrum

Seattle too


CheapSeatsSC

Not to mention it's a 4th line for Seattle.


Troub313

Is it though? Larkin, Beruzzi, Mantha was one of the best lines in the NHL two seasons ago.


LordCaedus13

I'd say so. Larkin was due for a bounceback season, and I was high on Raymond, but I didn't expect him to be absolutely crushing it like this.


Choco320

Raymond Larkin is going to be a big line for awhile. Just hoping that Zadina steps it up for the other Wing Or ye know, Bertuzzi gets vaccinated


Groundedge

We lost the o reilly trade


Cough_Syrup55

1C Tage has been a revelation.


SpiritBamba

In all seriousness last year he wasn’t very good from my eye test but in the games we played against you in preseason he looked really solid. I was impressed


Yop_BombNA

Him as a winger, very bad doesn’t cycle deep well, him as a centre actually good, plays to his strengths as a player.


TheSewallSyrum

Kevan Miller knocked him into being a decent player


ZenithRepairman

Literally beat some sense into him?


Podo13

Pretty much my standing theory on how Sundqvist went from solid shutdown 4th liner to amazing bottom 6 guy putting up 30 points. Wilson really rattled his brain in the right ways.


TheSewallSyrum

Maybe, it was a hell of a punch.


Groundedge

Always thought he had great potential if he figured out how to skate better and use his body more


solaris79

WTF? That's awesome that he turned out for you guys. Go UConn Huskies! :)


Vanek_26

Let's pump the breaks and see if he lasts an entire season. He's had strong 5 game stretches in the past.


Cal1gula

O, O, O, O reillllllyyyyyyyy


[deleted]

Ugh. …. AUTO PARTS! BOW!


hikingmike

Speaking of that, we will have to have a line from the Blues in here if we keep scoring like we are.


PowerMC

Bastian-Sheahan-Appleton is not what I expected to see tbh


TGUKF

I'm going to guess it's something to do with small sample size, and potentially quality of competition. At the very least, Appleton is decent, and based on their toi/gp so far, they're probably playing against other team's 4th lines Some of these lines are legit top lines for their teams though, like Boston, Tampa, Calgary, and LA. Others are probably some combination of playing well defensively, like the Minnesota lines. If they're playing strong defense, and limiting high danger chances, and chances in general, then it's much easier to rack up a higher xGF%


andykwinnipeg

I was calling Appleton "Dollar Store Ehlers" last year and he wore 27 for the Moose. That kid is going places and I'm still cheering for him


Tactician86

I love and miss apples, but Jansen Harkins with his create a character randomizer name has been a very pleasant surprise in his place.


zuneza

>I ordered Ehlers off Wish.com


andykwinnipeg

"Mom, I want Nik Ehlers" "we have Ehlers at home" Ehlers at home:


alpengeist3

He was who I was most excited for out of the expansion draft. Watched a lot of Jets games last year and heard his name a lot.


thewrittengeek

I just looked, that line has exactly 2 points: 1G, 1A. This is why metrics, no matter how advanced, are trash on their own.


Sweetness27

Poor filtering more than anything. Should be like an 8 minute/game minimum. 30 minutes in 6 games isn't much and sounds like a line blender. If you have 10 "lines" just by random chance one of them will be good.


CheapSeatsSC

If you gave me four guesses what Seattle line would be on this list, I would have still failed.


FatLenny-

I assume McDavid's line is leading the league in "unexpected goals for" then.


columbo222

It's expected goals for percentage. So if your line is on for 10 xGF and 10 xGA, your xGF% is 50%. The McDavid line scores a ton but they also allow a ton of high danger chances against them.


JehPea

Yep. McDavid has his 13 points but is only a +3


S7ark1

7 of his 13 points are on the PP... Anyone that thinks the McDavid line is bleeding grade A scoring chances every game is stat watching, not game watching.


JehPea

I'm not watching 32 teams my man, sometime stats are all you have


JanGuillosThrowaway

pff casual ^/s


S7ark1

That's fair. I get it. It's just a bit unfair that the current general wisdom around McDavid is that he is terrible defensively and the team basically just breaks even with his insane scoring. It is pretty far from accurate


BrotherWilhelm

when mcdavid and draisaitl play together they often trade a lot of chances when they are split they seem to get more dialed in defensively


Chigurrh

I mean, a lot of us have watched tons of McDavid games over the years. Prior to last year especially, that's pretty much how the games went. McDavid and Draisaitl would just exchange scoring chances with the other team all game at 5v5 and then kill them on the PP.


Dac189

7 of those points did come on the powerplay. So he's +6 , -3 at 5v5


king97dad

See I’m always told +\- is useless but these comments are always around


HXH52

I’ve only ever seen +/- taken seriously in this sub when it pertains to McDavid and Draisaitl, every other time it’s brought up you get dunked on. But *just* for those two apparently it’s a good stat


myaltaccount333

Don't forget Barkov and Couturier! (note: McDavid is +41 in last four seasons-32nd in NHL forwards, Barkov is +27 and Couturier is +52)


BroLil

It’s also important to note that these numbers are basically a made up average. So basically, the average line will score x amount of times based on the shots they’re taking. The thing about McDavid is that he can score on that 5% shot 50% of the time, so even if they’re not creating a lot of high quality chances, they’re capitalizing on *every* chance.


porkins86

It is a shame that this stigma is still following him around. Last 2 seasons under tippet he has really developed this game in his own end. He’s not selke nominee or anything but the amount of times in a game i notice him make a key defensive play is nuts. 5 on 5 he doesn’t generate as many chances as you think - but he generates high quality chances.


king97dad

Well actually i expect goals 100% of the time when McDavid is on the ice so this list is inaccurate /s


treple13

One thing to note about McDavid is more than half of his points are on the power play. McDavid actually has "only" 4 5v5 points this year so far (as well as 7 points on the power play, and two involving an empty net).


smash8890

And he also spent a lot of time with Tyson Barrie in the first 4 games which contributes to the xGA


ToxicSunFT

Drew O’Connor has more 5v5 points than Connor McDavid so far. I’m going to pretend that means O’Connor is the best player in the NHL.


WadeGertzky

Ill take real goals over expected goals any day


ajbolt7

From what I’ve seen they’re absolutely feasting on the Powerplay so I think that’s making up a massive portion of the GF there


Tashre

Is this something I can brag about?


theCaityCat

If you can be on a list with Pasta-Bergeron-Marchand, that is absolutely something to brag about.


Kickwax

I wonder if the Kraken should be licking their chops to see another one.


anyhow125

That's 1C Evan Rodrigues to you


-whostolemyusername-

Ah yes. Seeing two lines on here from Minnesota and neither of them have Kaprizov. Exactly what I would expect.


Jorgenstern8

Duhaime might be putting that line on this list by himself. Dude has been a fucking revelation for us, and both he and Sturm are "speedy af boys that never take a shift off" types.


dollabillkirill

I think Bjugstad looks 100x better this year too. Maybe he’s finally recovered from the back injury or something, but he’s been flying.


Jorgenstern8

Certainly not the lumbering slow player he was last year, for sure.


GhostlyTJ

Honestly, playing with a pair of very enthusiastic young guys can be invigorating as well


TheDirewolfShaggydog

I've been trying to follow how Bjugs has been doing this year but it's rather hard with time zone differences. But now that you guys have him I've hopped on the wild bandwagon.


Nikolai_Smirnoff

He’s been quietly good so far, 5 points in 5 games, but looks a bit off. Not sure what it is


4N0NYM0US_GUY

9 mil in his back pocket slowing him down


simplyme216

Forcing plays. He’s committed about 10 turnovers in the last 2 games, it feels like. 5 assists, no goals. I think he wants to get that monkey off his back, and he’s starting to feel the pressure a bit. He will finish the season with 1 point per game at least.


Goose312

He read every comment from people who don't think he's worth his contract and wants so badly to prove them wrong or something. Like, yeah dude you can often beat a guy 1v1, doesn't mean you have to take on a whole team at the blue line every shift.


Fantastic-Lobster-79

What's impressive to me is the Wild's 4th line is playing against other teams top lines too.


KingInTheFarNorth

Minnesota always been a offence by comitee, now that they have a bonafide top scorer and somehow their middle six is the best in the NHL?


gfmsus

Now if our d could stop shitting the bed it would be great.


72athansiou

As everyone expected Detroit has one of the top lines in the league


CloudN3in

it’s a good line.


EvensonRDS

I'd give that line a go.


UncleOrton

Don’t forget about us!


SharksFanAbroad

Alright Mariah settle down


rcky_mtn_man

We are also here fyi!


LucasRaymondGOAT

I LIKE THIS FUCKING LIST.


prplx

And the Leafs have none.


SharksFanAbroad

I kinda always knew I'd end up your xGF%


dollabillkirill

Our bottom 6 is our top 6


LordOfHorns

Nah we just have a top 12


beangardener

Relatable


beardie88

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk has basically been the entire flames offense so far. There's been a few moments from Mangiapane, Dube and Coleman but it's really not been much compared to the top line. This doesn't surprise me, but if the flames can figure out a better working middle six I think we'll be significantly stronger. I think the individual talent is mostly there, but it seems like a chemistry thing holding them back depth wise.


awayfromcanuck

Did you guys finally put Tkachuk on the top line this year or am I like a season behind? For the longest time I remember Tkachuk being on the 2nd or 3rd line and you guys would always run with Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm


AbsoluteIKeatI

At the end of last season we finally sat Monahan, who reportedly could barely walk all year but still played for some reason, and made the top line Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk. They produced a ton of points so we've kept them since and they've continued to be one of the lone bright spots of our offence


treple13

> Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk has basically been the entire flames offense so far You don't even need to mention Tkachuk. Lindholm-Gaudreau has been the Flames offense


beardie88

Tkachuk had like 14 shots in the first two games, he's had some lesser games sense then and I agree that Gaudreau and Lindholm have been better thus far, but I think he's done enough to be mentioned as a positive factor on the line.


Dr_Colossus

Mango has 3 goals. Edit: 5 goals. Guy is a beast.


Sweetness27

Tkachuk has probably hit 3 gimme posts. He's been good, more bad luck than anything.


treple13

I think that's fair. He's defintely been a bit unlucky


Sweetness27

Ya I thought he was our best player in a few games.


Josefstalion

I'd like to see Mangiapane/Monahan/Coleman as the 2nd line, but I haven't seen much of Monahan to know if he's looked good this season


beardie88

Monahan has looked pretty slow and not his usual self. His injury was reportedly really bad last year yet he played anyways. I assume he's either still recovering and stubbornly playing anyways or still getting up to speed. Dube on the other hand has looked solid at center, which is the position he played before and has also looked excellent playing with Mangiapane. For that reason I'd like to see Mangiapane - Dube - Coleman But I agree that if Monahan gets up to speed your line would be worth trying as well.


Maerkly

Now that you spell it out, I’d also really like to see Coleman with Dube and Mangiapane. I think that would be a pretty rad line


ChodeFungus

Honestly being injured pretty much is his usual self


itoadaso1

His game was his shot and I don't think he has it anymore after all the surgeries he's had in recent years. He was never very good defensively or very physical, so losing that shot really hurt his effectiveness. He's on our fourth line right now.


Barqueefa

Id prefer to have Backlund at center to be honest


pepesilvia_esq

“Lol” - Connor Mcdavid


bWoofles

Kopi can only carry our team so hard


ShadowChair

So many invisible players in our forward group... I really hope Vilardi can get something going soon, glad he scored last game


Zanchbot

Always has. Time for the youth to step up and help or we're not going anywhere.


FearIessredditor

Rodrigues the 1C


seeldoger47

Yet another 1C the Sabres needlessly gave away.


armchaircommanderdad

Feels really good to see the devils on this list. Even if it’s outside the top ten, it’s still towards the top of the league. Small sample size but it’s nice. They’re so young too. This feel of hope is new.


ProfessorBaxter

The Bergeron line has been dynamite so far. I'm really excited to see how they do this week against Florida and Carolina, two elite teams with great two-way centers.


UMining

Watching the Flyers-Bs game last week, that line had ALL of the possession every time they were on the ice (matched up against Flyers top line and d-pair). Its wild


me_hill

If I'm reading this correctly we'll score 70.32% of the 47.58 minutes that line is on the ice, which is good for 33.46 goals a game


Audi_R8_

Bratt Hischier Zacha was actually broken up last game by Ruff. He even went to the media before the game saying that that line has been disappointing and needs to step up. and also whenever any of those 3 miss a shot, the GDT is flooded with "at least it was an expected goal"


whichwitch9

The actual quote was that he needs more from the top line, not that they've been disappointing. That's a fair assessment for 3 guys that are also on ice together for the power play and not registering points.


TinnieTa21

Look at that beautiful Penguins line! Thank you Maple Leafs!


gentleman_bronco

Yes of course. Offensive powerhouses such as Buffalo, Detroit, and New Jersey are represented well. I wonder if those chucks in Colorado or Edmonton will ever live up to the hype.


greg19735

What is expect goals for %? what's the % compared to?


treple13

Comparing expected goals for vs. all expected goals (for and against). A higher % means you are expected to score goals, but not give them up


seeldoger47

It’s an estimate of your quality of shot share while on the ice. An xGF% of 50 would imply a line is giving up as much quality as they are generating whereas less than 50 implies they are giving up more quality chances than they are generating and vice versa.


Prison-Date-Mike

I’m just way more impressed with the Pens and Seattle being up there.


GreggoireLeOeuf

I'll take what is "five games into the season" for 400 Alex.


UncleOrton

You’re trying to tell me that 1C Tage Thompson isn’t going to be good all season?


malkins_restraint

On one hand, I want to see how he fares against elite 1C ERod. On the other hand, your stupid giraffe boy always lights us up.


awayfromcanuck

When was the last time the Bruins line wasn't considered a top 5 line in the league? I feel like every time we get lists like this they are always on it near the top.


Rikplaysbass

Pasta came in in like 2015 so since then I guess. Lol


easy89

Hey, the Tatar-Danault-Gallagher line has been at the top these lists for the past three years. What's going on? Why aren't they there this ye-- Oh. Oh no.


holy_cal

First of all: when the fuck did Calgary get good? I went to the game on Saturday and they skated circles around the caps for the 1st period. I was shocked.


mediaocrity23

Finished 1st in the west in the 18/19 season, then got bazooka'd out of the playoffs by a very good 8 seed Avs. After two arguably underperforming years the head office made some positional improvements but the core has stayed the same. Also a few more years experience for our younger guys like Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Andersson


PoyoTheUnkillable

How current is is because kucherov is out and Raymond had a hat trick last night with Bertuzzi scoring a goal.


ComradeDoctor

[From 5 hours ago.](https://twitter.com/iyer_prashanth/status/1452675428934639626)


smexeh

How do you calculate "expected goals"


LordCaedus13

using a statistical model that assigns each shot a "probability" of scoring based on location and situation (ie rebound, rush, etc) summing these probabilities gives a rough approximation of the number goals a team could "expect" to score on those shots


Decent_Foundation_62

So it doesn't account for the fact that McJesus and Drai (or Ovechkin etc) probably score an above average frequency compared to 'expected' and might be expected to do that long term?


LordCaedus13

depends on the model. most don't, but Steve Valiquette's actually does.


andykwinnipeg

I was about to complain the Jets top line isn't there until I realized they've played maybe 20 minutes together all year


SoSneaky91

I am simultaneously happy and sad to see Minnesotas 4th line on this list.


BlackDS

Elite first line of Zucc, Erod, and Cheeks. Love to see it.


Silent_Horror5443

ZUCKER RODRIGUES KAPANEN? LMAO ​ EDIT: before i get downvotes i am lmoaing because this line is a lot higher than i could ever guess if you asked me to name my thoughts for top15 lines xGF%


saharashooter

Believe me, us Pens fans are laughing just as much as you are. How the hell Sully keeps making an NHL roster out of 3rd liners, 4th liners, and AHL players is beyond me


Silent_Horror5443

I like pittsbrugh other than crosby so honestly im happy to see them destroying with these 3rd 4th line & AHL players


BrrRva

Elite 1C Evan Rodrigues


Puffinator59

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAGA ZUCKER EROD KAPANEN FTW


amm0ranth

larkin is so underrated


AmateurPolyglot1

It's going to take me a bit to get used to not not looking straight for the bottom anymore


DoinWhale

Another reminder that we have to miss another regular season of potential Kucherov domination, guy deserves to have his prime without injury


awayfromcanuck

>guys deserves to have his prime without injury Sigh, reminds me of both Crosby and Stamkos missing chunks of their prime due to injury. Always sucks to see top end guys miss significant time due to injury


BiatchaPlease

One of there are not like the others... :D


InUnprecedentedTimes

Leafs need to spend more on the top line if we’re ever going to make this list


NitroXIII

This chart is the definition of "it's early" lol


beangardener

Nothing clever to say about whatever the hell the Penguins are doing right now. Just going to enjoy it.


Crossfiyah

Evan Rodrigues, elite #1C.


minnesotalesbian

Could not be more excited to see both of those Wild lines getting some love. I’m a huge Hartman fan, and I love seeing that line click already with a new center. And the fourth line has really looked good so far—Bjugstad in particular has pop this year that definitely wasn’t there last year.


No_Initiative2138

I CALL BS


Gamewiz2x3

Proof we need to put some respect on the name of elite 1C Evan Rodrigues


PavilionParty

That Rodrigues line is primed to dominate.


mcleary82

You’d all be lying if you said you predicted anything beyond numbers 1 and 2 here.


-dov-

Mark Donk and Buzz Flibbet represent!


Red_Sea_Pedestrian

Caps top line: am I a joke to you?


1337_L34f

Link to full table?


seeldoger47

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm


1337_L34f

Thank you!


seeldoger47

Yw


TheSewallSyrum

So the worst is...Barron-McKegg-Reeves then


josh89rea

I got it from Twitter https://twitter.com/iyer_prashanth/status/1452675428934639626?t=-5JfXGMLWSIowWWsBNwOZg&s=19


seeldoger47

Correction, the data is from [evolving hockey](https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/combos/?_inputs_&std_c3_range="Seasons"&std_c3_players=null&std_c3_adj="Score%20%26%20Venue"&dir_combo="F%20Lines"&std_c3_str="5v5"&std_c3_toi="30"&std_c3_type="Rates"&std_c3_span="Regular"&std_c3_team="All"), but you’ll need a subscription to see it.


Melodic-Bug-9022

Honestly, it's 4-5 games, this doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme. These lines are playing well but until we're 40+ games in, meh.


Rikplaysbass

I think our line will probably still be on it. Lol


butchthedoggy

Would love to see zone start %, as that would undoubtedly impact these rankings


seeldoger47

The only thing zone starts really show you is what a coach thinks about a player. Their predicative impact is null (most line changes occur on the fly anyways).


butchthedoggy

Fair point