Posted to r/fantasyfootball before The Athletic, what a power move.


The ones at the Athletic are different. I use different seed values.


What’s the difference in a nutshell for someone not super analytical?


I use Expert concensus for these. I use the experts at the Athletic for theirs. Then feed them into my model. So, they could be similar or very different


Very interesting. Congrats to you again been following your post for years, glad to see your success after all the hard work


Thank you! It's been interesting. Never thought I'd be writing about fantasy football. Highskool me wouldn't believe you if you told him.


That’s a very easy to understand breakdown, I was expecting worse haha! Thanks Alex, love these value charts.


Short and sweet. That's my goal. There is a joke in there about my wedding night. Not enough coffee to flush it out.


Yeah but they don't love you like we do


Look how Baker massacred my boy, DJ Moore. 2 weeks ago he was a 42 and today he’s an 18.5…


Probably the biggest drop besides maybe Akers. Should be illegal


Doesn’t feel good having both :(


Same. Threads about busts are basically just my team.


What are the odds that DJ Moore and Baker somehow turn this shitshow around? I doubt I can move Moore at this point and am stuck holding.


Higher than zero. But how much higher? Who knows. I'm worried


Same, Moore is talented and is being wasted with garbage QB play.


And hes honestly holding mccaffery back the same amount of fantasy points. Check it down baker!


Desperately trying to get him off my team, but may be stuck having to wait it out and hope/pray he turns it around.


I think we just have to hold and hope. Can't get anything for a low tier WR.


Stupid Baker Mayfield


And the funny part is I’d rather have most of the receivers below him on this list still


I remember reading a tweet this offseason that said "some of you drafted 0rb and just don't know it yet." It looks like that "some" includes basically everyone.


We just don't have the WRs to show for it. LOL fuck me.


I feel like I hit the lottery with CMC and Saquon. Knock on wood


Saquons my best 3rd round pick lol thanks ESPN


That’s walking on thin ice brother, best of luck though.


Except that one guy who has Saquon, CEH, Jrob and Cordarelle after getting Diggs in the first and waddle in the 3rd lmao


I don't quite understand why Allen is so highly valued over Lamar right now.


Lamar worth Devin singleterry? Lmao that's insulting. Homeboy just played NE defense and still got 39 points. I really have a hard time understanding why his value shouldn't be toward the top. People talk about positional scarcity... Well there are only a handful of QBs that run, and he's the best at it.


The difference between Lamar Jackson at #1QB so far and Patrick Mahomes at #4 is 34 points. That's the same difference between Mahomes and Matt Ryan at #27. Hurts and Allen are this very strong S tier, but Jackson is currently breaking the scale at QB for scoring.


He's essentially playing as a top 10 QB and a RB1 right now in the same roster spot. Singletary 1 for 1 is insulting.


It's been 3 weeks I have Lamar and if someone offered me Allen I'd do it without thinking... he's good but I'd bet Allen finishes above if no injuries


I'd probably do the same, but my core point is that Lamar being viewed the same as a mid-tier RB is probably a massive undervalue.


Oh yeah I would not trade lamar or Allen for a mid tier RB or at this point an RB2 ever... I'm curious though, who would you trade either for?


I'd probably view either Lamar or Allen around Najee/Kelce/Pittman/Deebo on this chart.


Absolutely laughable that someone could get Lamar Jackson for Devin Singletary




But the question is can Lamar sustain that output? Josh Allen is higher because he's got Diggs and Davis. Lamar needs to put up Rb2/3 numbers to sustain success


The way things are playing out, QB is the *most* scarce position this year. There are a dozen boring interchangeable QBs that give you 18-23 PPG, and only 3 that give you 30+ each week.


Or or or these charts are assuming their current production is not sustainable?


Yet look what they did with the top 2 TEs...as if that isn't a huge overreaction


Yep, it's the algorithm. It only allows the TE1 and QB1 to have elite value once the season starts. PIHS's preseason values had Andrews 39.5, Kelce 37, which made total sense. Then the season started and they swung to Kelce 35, Andrews 22. And then this week, Andrews re-passed Kelce in enough ROS ranks, and because there can only be one elite TE, it's Andrews +8, Kelce -9, even though Kelce's week 3 was totally fine, 58 yards and a TD. Same thing will happen next week if Lamar has another big game and passes Allen in enough ROS ranks. Allen will get a big -12 even if he's the exact same league-winning stud he was a week prior.




I don’t even know what it would take to get Lamar from me right now. It would have to be an elite running back or wide receiver. I wouldn’t let him go for a low end rb1 or wr1. His positional advantage is so huge right now.


I agree with you. Plus Allen might have hurt his hand. Haven't seen anything. Hurts needs to move up too. Solid tier of like 4 Greta starters


Your chart last week helped me land Hurts for C Samuel and Ken Walker so thanks for that.


Is there really anyone out there that would trade Lamar for singletary?


Guy in our league has Lamar and Tua (and is a Fins fan) but no RBs. That's about the only situation I can see that maybe happening.


If someone offered me Dj Moore For Olave I would laugh in their faces


Expert ratings lag so much right now...


I got offered Mattison for Curtis Samuel because they're similar ECR.


Mattison may be the winner here if cook is out for a while...


Samuel has outscored the entire Minnesota RB room so far this season. I'm not sure if Samuel can sustain, but if Dalvin Cook couldn't get going behind this line, I don't have any more confidence that Alexander Mattison is going to be a stud.


Interesting point. Perhaps I have too much anchoring bias to last year.


Samuel had a pretty good flex score in what is quite possibly the worst game that could've happened. If that's his floor then dude is a stud.


The Olave hype is making me nervous as an Olave owner


I wouldn’t be, having watched every saints game they’re clearly obsessed with him. He gets thrown to like every time and they’re all long passes. He’s going to be a solid performer unless they bench jameis or change coaches.


Looks like they are preparing to go without Jameis because of his injury. Hopefully, Olave's production doesn't go down.


Just traded Zeke for Olave and thought I got a good deal, Olave should ball ROS.


Depends on Winston's health. He's not practicing due to his back. If Dalton or even worse, Hill, take over, Olave is in trouble.


I think you won this as long as you have a stable enough RB room post-zeke


Henry, Jones, and Wilson. Really I just couldn't start Zeke with any confidence. Top wrs were Sutton and DK.


Yeah, I was just thinking I’d snap someone’s hand off accepting the trade if they offered Olave for Moore.


Christian kirk is surprisingly low for WR6 on the year




Gonna show this to my league mates and try to swap Devin Singletary for Lamar Jackson.


Someone dropped Singletary in our ten man league, the top waiver pickups are around 50-60% rostered and he’s 90%. Maybe the Jackson owner will drop him too


I just want you to know that you definitely did not peak in highschool. You peak every Wednesday, buddy. Edit: also, look at Amon-ra. Literally in a tier of his own...


You should see me on Tuesday nights 😉


*loosens tie frantically*


Keep. It. On.


Yes Daddy.


2-1 and went hero RB with Swift. I don't have Jamaal. So confused about how to go about the next few weeks, but this helps! Thank you!


Maybe cry a little. That's what I plan on doing


Same. I have AJ Dillon as the next RB up. We only have to start 1 RB, so hero RB makes a lot of wane the way our lineups are set up. Regret not grabbing Williams, but we’ll see what happens the next few weeks.


Is this a safe place to cry about drafting Cook and Swift


I expected Curtis Samuel to be much closer to Terry in value in full PPR


Wonder why CeeDee dropped so much after he showed up this week. Also Gabe Davis jumped above Kirk in half PPR? That seems so odd


I agree. Gabe feels overvalued to me. But I'm not a truther


Just seems like a lot of weird stuff. Like breece hall with his most encouraging week, production and snap share wise. Yet he falls. Aaron jones jumps way up when he didn’t do anything.


I imagine Hall's fall is related to Wilson returning and the unknown of how that offense will run when he does.


Some of this is really surprising. How is Lamb this low? Lamar gains nothing? London gains 8 but WIlson only 2.5? I get it's the alogirthm spitting it out, but I'm a bit confused how.


With Lamb, it's probably because the Cowboys offense spent the better part of 3 quarters doing jack squat and before turning it on. Point are points in the end score, but it's disheartening for fantasy to see them stall out most of the game, with Ceedee not doing much during that time. Of course, they turned it around by leaning on Ceedee, which is a great sign for me. London is already getting great usage. So is Wilson, but like with Hall I think the uncertainty around the other Wilson returning is muddying the value.


Lamb's value the week before was so far in the dumpster, I don't see how he doesn't bump up.


The Eagles scored 0 points in the second half against the Vikings and Commanders. So by that logic all Eagles players should be downgraded. Why does it matter if they score their points in the first half or second half? Pretty poor logic imo.


I mean, the eagles offense has looked leagues better than the Cowboys offense despite that, and slowing down after they've already created a comfortable lead is a bit different. And I'm merely trying to put logic behind the value. I'm high on Ceedee, think he ends the season a high end wr2 who can put up wr1 numbers any given week. The only reservation is whether or not he gets slowed down by his own offense on any given week as well.


Lamar Jackson showing equivalent trade value to the 30th most valuable RB. Can we admit the QB valuations are off yet? The difference between Lamar Jackson (QB1) and Kyler Murray (QB7) so far this year has been Jonathan Taylor. As in, Lamar Jackson + *an empty RB slot* (102 + 0 = 102) has outscored Kyler Murray + Jonathan Taylor (60 + 39 = 99) on the season. Positional scarcity isn't the answer. Jackson, Allen, and Hurts are [top-5 on the season in VBD](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/fantasy.htm), a metric that accounts for it. I'm not saying their trade values are *that* high (there is obviously small sample size at play), but there's just no logical or mathematical case for ranking Hurts and Jackson outside the top 50. I really appreciate your contributions to the community, and I'm sorry to be negative, but it would be nice to be able to use these trade value rankings for more than just the RB and WR sections. Something's broken.


Some goes for elite TEs. People argue they can stream TE. However, how much more does Kelce score in a season than the dude streaming TE? Most likely...more than the difference most RBs taken in round 2 vs end of draft RBs. WR as well...Kupp is getting you way more value than any RB right now. Sure...you can find wrs on the waiver that might out up 20+. But they never do...they get you 3 points...and the guy with Kupp + N. Hines crushes your Mixon + Renfrow. The ONLY viable strategy is to 1) get best value regardless of position, 2) don't have injuries, and 3) REALLY...don't have injuries!!


What's broken is the experts not updating their rankings dramatically enough.


That's definitely a major driver. But I also think /u/peakedinhighskool's methodology overcorrects on downgrading the onesie positions. If you look his charts from [late-season 2021](https://imgur.com/FvO0aLD) or [late-season 2020](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z54Iw1dDm8kPdKNEkcwtg_-ypo0egaWo/view) (a time by which we knew for certain who the top TE and QBs were), they follow the same pattern. The #1 rated TE and the #1 QB get rated semi-appropriately, then a giant gap down to the #2 and beyond. In both years, [two TEs and four QBs finished as top-15 overall players by VBD](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/fantasy.htm), positional scarcity and all. But it's just not set up to ever let more than one of each into the elite tier, even when history, current-season results, and our eyes tell us that's exactly what's happening.


Uhh hurts Lamar and Allen are the consensus 1,2, and 3 across basically every single analysts. It’s just that Peaked’s model doesn’t give any value to elite QBs for some reason.


I’ve been feeling this for a while, for the last few seasons I’ve been either drafting QB late or replacing an injured QB, and it’s been terrible. Cracked 20 pts at QB maybe 3 times last year, and I’ve yet to hit 14 this season. Positional scarcity is theoretically lower at QB, but week to week it’s very difficult to predict which low end/waiver QBs are going to have a half decent game.


Kept refreshing this morning waiting for this chart! Thank you!


8:30, right in the dot. I got you


You forgot Kamara. Owning Kamara has been like wiping my ass with 5 grit sandpaper every week. ROUGH.


I was trying to block him out. He's killng me. I have a lot of him


Yeah I hate it. He has to turn it around. Right?! 😞


I just bought VERY low on him. Biggest/best trade I've ever done. My : Josh Allen, Kelce, Zeke, Thielen, B. Hall for His : Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, McCaffrey, Kamara, Ertz Couple people think he won big. I feel like I broke the league with how big I won. Then again...if Kamara averages 3 ppg and CMC doesn't stay healthy...I might have lost.


Holy shit.. Great deal for you


There's more value in this trade than our entire last season of trades, I envy your league


When you don’t own a guy in tier 1 or 2, feels bad man.




Anyone else find Lamar’s ranking a little disrespectful? Edit: Guess I should have looked at the top comment before saying anything haha, glad to know we are on the same page


Sent a few offers out yesterday and looks like it’s mostly even offers. Let’s see what happens (se know it’ll get countered with some dumbass offers)


Generally speaking, it’s always best to text/chat someone up before sending an official offer even if it’s just a “jumping off” point. I’d say like less than 5% of trades in my leagues are ever done after just being cold offered. People want to be wined and dined!


Good luck!


All praise to Saquad!


All hail the quad-god


I just came here to say Fuck Russ. Dude is single-handedly destroying my teams.


Just dropped his bum ass for Lawrence And I should mention I sent out about 10 trade offers over the past two weeks with owners who have 2 QBs rostered. All rejected or ignored. One countered back with Tua for CMC...


Wow. Lawrence isn’t even available in my league. Best on the wire are Geno, Jones, and Brissett. Nobody in my league trades and the ones who are willing to only do stupid lopsided ones. Kind of ashamed to say this but I offered Derrick Henry for Josh Allen and Aaron Jones for Allen and they both got ignored. I’m getting desperate.


I’d personally rather have Robinson than any of the guys around him. Jags offense is shockingly looking very solid and you really can’t beat his usage. Both of which are more than you can say about Najee and Kamara


Thank you for these posts as always. Feeling better about my Terry McLaurin (traded) for Cordarelle Patterson (received) trade I made last night now


Aaron Jones went up quite a bit...


Matt Ryan is scaring the hell out of me on Pittman. He looks like a pumpkin back there. I think I would easily rather have Higgins.


True, but it does feel like Pittman is already playing at his floor.


He’s wr #24 and missed an entire week. I take that floor


Yup, I have him and see no reason to panic. Love me my Pittman


Is it a hot take to say I wouldn't even consider trading Mark Andrews for any of the guys ranked ahead of him in tier 2? I mean depending on how your roster is constructed I'd have to think about not trading for some of the guys in tier 1.


Naw man. I totally get it. Have to account for the garbage you'd have to start if you moved Andrews.


Curtis Samuel seems a bit underrated as he's a fringe WR1 rn.


Him and Godwin need to be out of Tier 9. No one would trade any of those guys for Allen robinson straight up


You wouldn't rather have ARob, Aiyuk or Lazard?!


True, but I think the expectation is for the wheels to fall off the commanders offense after their dismantling on Sunday. Samuel was thriving off designed plays and lots of targets. That's great, but defenses will adjust throughout the year and that well may very well dry up. Also, Wentz is still Wentz. Pressure kills his rhythm. Edit: I get that you guys disagree, but understand that I'm mostly speculating and trying to put reason behind the value.


To play devil’s advocate, if the offense getting dismantled w/ 9 sacks and Wentz on his heels all day results in a 13.1 PPR performance from Samuel with no reduction in targets as his potential *floor*, that sounds like WR1 material


Traded c patt, k. Herbert, and lazard for amon Ra and Etienne. Seems like it ended up being a fairly balanced trade in the end


Sounds pretty even


I traded away dobbins for Christian Kirk. Feels good right now but I can’t help but feel Dobbins will be climbing the board in the coming weeks 😭


Not feeling great about my recent trade. Sent Hunt and ARob for Garret Wilson. I was weaker at WR tho and hoping Wilson can continue to produce. Edit for context: this league is 3 WR and 1 flex for the starting lineup.


Dude that's a fine trade. Arob is borderline dropable and Hunt for Wilson is about even value in my eyes. You got yourself a solid receiver.


That was my thought. I was ready to get rid of ARob, but didn’t wanna drop him. I did try to do Hendo instead of Hunt, but was declined.


Yeah man, you did good. Wilson is a stud.


Yeah I’m high on Wilson but that’s an overpay. Although I have all these guys across different leagues and Wilson is the only one I’m starting. So if you look at it that way, it’s a starter for 2 bench players.


Dorch has to have some PPR value, no?


Amyone share this with their league? Because I've offered a few fair trades based off this and all I get are laughable counter offers.


I will literally drop them in my league chat to start convos


i think my league would laugh at me if i dropped my own trade value charts in the chat to convince people to trade with me haha. just a liiiiittle suspicious


I did this completely anonymously until last year. Was a lot easier to drop it..


Haha I bet


Just got Scoredarrelle and Waller for CeeDee and Logan Thomas. Not bad if you ask me!


I don't hate it.




What am I missing with Christian Kirk? He's the WR5 on the season with a very consistent performance. Yet he sits among mid range RB2s and WR2s Is the market slow to react to his role in this offence? I can't help but feel it's a holdover from the draft capital/brand names of the other guys


Higgins is one controversial incompletion from outscoring Chase on the year. Should probably be Tier 3, IMO, but I understand we're fighting perception here.


Sent Curtis Samuel for James Conner. This makes me feel goooood. Was weak at RB and strong at WR so win win for me it seems.


Sexiest chart in ffb


Excuse me. Mister Peaked! I think somethings wrong with your chart. You see, none of my tight ends are listed.


Huh, I was seriously considering Kittle and Najee for Kamara and Akers and this has it at an almost completely even trade. Time to reach out lol Still wanna try and go Kittle and Jacobs for CEH and Marquise Brown


The best trade content there is


I'm surprised how much higher London is then Olave even though the latter rookie is getting way more targets.


Just wondering why Lamar is so low. He seems like a clear cut QB1


I feel like the elite QBs in general (Allen, Lamar, Hurts) are all being severely undervalued


I have a feeling we will have a shift in a year or 2 that starts valuing the elite QBs far more as the value over replacement is starting to widen with the top guys. It is basically TE at this point with getting the top few or the rest are about the same. Maybe not as extreme as MAndrews to say Irv Smith, but it is getting up there.


He’s like the black Russell Wilson.


I think we could argue THE QB1


Great work overall. I was just curious cuz I had Lamar kill me two weeks ago.


Time to go poop!


That's why I was chugging coffee 20min ago. In preporation




It was right there. Had to


Chugging coffee while sitting in Preparation H. 😞


I wonder if they sponsor


you make my Wednesday much happier. Thank you sir!


You all make mine great. I appreciate you


Very nice


Damn. I really won my Diontae + Penny for Fournette trade pretty hard I guess. Swift went down so I needed a new RB1


Oof, what was that fournette owner thinking.


He was desperate for a WR. He drafted DJ Moore, Claypool and Mooney. He said it was either Diontae + Penny for Fournette or Hollywood + Penny for Ekeler. I chose the Fournette route.


Lmao this same guy who did this trade just did the following trade: Out: Lamar, Hunt, Dallas Godert In: Mahomes, Deebo, Conklin Man is in major rebuild mode


That's a pretty solid trade for both sides imo. Though it's still a question if Wilson will give Conklin the love Flacco has. But the guy went from no receivers to diontae and Deebo. Still think he sold low on fournette. Once Evans and Godwin are back and the Buccs start putting proper drives together, Fournette will be producing solid numbers.


Got offered Kupp for my Lenny and Hollywood Brown. PPR superflex 12 team. My other RBs are Henry, Sanders, Gordon. Diontae, Olave, Godwin, Elijah Moore. Not sure I love the rb depth if I make the move or the value in general but kupp is so good lol. What to do


I think it is a fair trade in terms of value. Maybe, offer Sanders and a better wr instead? You have better wr depth than rb depth


If you aren’t smashing accept I’m not sure what to tell you


In y’all’s opinion who’s the #1 RB to own going forward. Cmc/Barkley/JT? Absolutely stacked at WR and am looking to piece one w/ najee for a/the top RB.


Any of the 3. All have worts. Go with your favorite to watch. Or who is the easiest to buy


I think by year’s end it could even be Fournette. But I’ll say Saquon in hopes that he stays healthy—except when his owner plays me.


Finally i can take a shit


I was offered Jamarr Chase for my Christian Kirk and Drake London. How do we feel about that? It's an 8-team league and I'm pretty loaded at the WR position, looking to tier up


You are getting Chase? Love it. Tier up for a stud. Especially if you have the depth


Mastering the Art of Rejection


Just sent out James Conner for Tee Higgins (standard). Went RB heavy so hoping that goes through, plus would love the Burrow/Higgins stack


Don't think anyone is trading any of Allen, Lamar, or Hurts for those prices. But I love these charts, always and forever.


The moment I realize my best player is in Tier 4.... and I'm still 2-1


Just got kamara and mike Williams for dameon pierce and Michael Thomas… this chart has me feeling pretty good


Speaking of targeting RBs, I keep going back and forth on this offer I got in 10-team half-PPR: Jacobs for Olave. I could use another RB as my situation is dicey for 10-team (CMC, A. Jones, Etienne, Foreman just in case CMC goes down, Mitchell & B. Robinson \[IR\]). My WR depth is good (K. Allen, Cooks, Lockett, Olave, Aiyuk, E. Moore, J. Jones), but Allen is the closest thing I have to a true no. 1 fantasy WR and I’m not even sure about that. Chart says I should definitely take this, I’ve just got FOMO on Olave’s upside. I know scared money don’t make money, but if Aaron Jones gets injured before Mitchell and Robinson get back, I’m forcing Etienne into the RB2 spot. What do I do??


I'm probably taking Jacob's for that tbh. He has some TD regression coming his way. He's a buy to me. For a reasonable price


I'd day take it because as you said, if CMC/Jones get injured, you're in a reallllly bad spot. And I think you could survive a WR injury much easier than RB.


I snagged Devonta Smith off the waiver wire after week 1 but I’m too good at WR for him to ever start (Diggs Brown and Sutton ahead of him) Thinking I should probably try and package him to a WR needy team with Cordarelle Patterson to upgrade at RB but not sure who to target or if instead I should try to move Brown for a star RB


Imo, if you're doing fine record wise and scoring points, I'd hold for the time being. I see nowhere for Smith's value to go but up. People forgot how good he is when AJB came in, or at least assumed that offense can't support them both. But Hurts is throwing darts rn, like some truly beautiful passes, and a lot of them. AJB and DeVanta are this year's Chase and Higgins. Chase and Higgins are also this year's Chase and Higgins, but the eagles offense is just running so much more smoothly.


You’re probably right, think I’ll hold and wait for his value to go up even further and if the time comes where CPatt falls off I can upgrade then.


Would you do AJ Dillon and Marquis Brown for Aaron Jones? 14 team ppr. My RBs are Cook, Dillon, Henderson, Carter. WRs are CD, Bateman, Brown, Arob, Hopkins.


I don't hate it. But depth can be an issue in 14 team


Should I pick up Chargers or Steelers def. And play them instead of Bills this week?


Check u/subvertadown 's post. He knows better streaming options. Chargers lost 2 important pieces


I traded away Patterson + Mike Williams for Henry in standard. Who wins?


There are so mant Williams. Imposible to know


My bad. Edited (Mike Williams)


Surprised Hollywood Brown is still so low, I have a trade offered to me of Bateman+Brian Robinson for Hollywood, i thought it was way off base but maybe it’s close to a deal?


Thanks for these, been a big fan since you started. Hmm i felt great yesterday about sending out Dillon/Javonte for Ekeler/Dhop, now, not so much…


Just curious why do TEs get ranked so low? There aren't a lot of good ones, so if you have one its pretty valuable. Andrews is more or less putting up WR1 numbers in the TE spot?