By - Thegrandmistressofoz
Lmao this sub was convinced for months that Gordon wouldn’t get re-signed
I feel like this specific type of hype train is becoming common. People look at a back, see his talent, and decide he's gonna get a workhorse-level amount of work.
They ignore the fact that for most NFL offenses there isn't a major benefit to doing that. It makes more sense to have a stable of backs split the work. Denver's system worked great for them last year, and a lot of us pointed out that there wasn't much incentive for them to go away from that, but people insisted Javonte was gonna be the bellcow. This wasn't just dynasty owners, it was analysts too. There was no evidence for it, but that was the common narrative, because "Javonte has the talent". The Broncos were never gonna give him that work, with or without Gordon. He agreed to terms with them two days before the draft, so it's pretty obvious they told him if he wasn't on the team come draft time they were gonna get someone to fill that role.
There are plenty of examples of this. We saw it with Jones, who never got the usage people wanted despite being more talented than Williams, and really the expectations didn't die down until people saw how good Dillon is. We saw it with Gibson, where people are finally now coming to terms with the fact that he won't be a bellcow, despite two years of him not being used that way.
And now we're starting to see it again with Hall. I'm not trying to say that Hall is destined for a specific kind of usage, but I'm seeing a lot of people say he's definitely gonna get that huge workload, and completely ignoring the fact that Carter was a good back for the Jets, and that from an organizational standpoint it doesn't make sense for Hall to get the amount of work people are hoping for. The phrase "don't overthink it" keeps getting used, and I think it's ridiculous. People need to really start adjusting their expectations.
> And now we're starting to see it again with Hall. I'm not trying to say that Hall is destined for a specific kind of usage, but I'm seeing a lot of people say he's definitely gonna get that huge workload, and completely ignoring the fact that Carter was a good back for the Jets, and that from an organizational standpoint it doesn't make sense for Hall to get the amount of work people are hoping for. The phrase "don't overthink it" keeps getting used, and I think it's ridiculous. People need to really start adjusting their expectations.
I noticed this, too. In dynasty you can buy Carter for pennies on the dollar because everyone has decided that his fantasy relevance is over. It's wild.
Yeah if I had Carter I’d be selling for anything I could. Not much value in a small backup RB on a bottom tier offense of fantasy production. At best you get a McKissic or Hines type role in the future. And that’s a reach imo. Have fun with Carter
That's what Javonte Williams owners said last season. Buyers of Melvin Gordon got an RB2 last season for almost nothing. Denver had a bottom tier offense going into the year, too.
I don't own Carter, so it won't affect me either way. I just find it interesting how history repeats itself and the narratives are the same - the incoming 2nd round rookie is *totally* going to get 75% of the carries and the former starter is toast, guaranteed.
Gordon more proven and better than Carter. Never got what people see in him. He’s fine, nothing more
This is…not a good take.
Edit: really sold me! Y’all Carter truthers are something else. All 10 of ya
I mean, it’s all speculation on both sides. There’s no counter because there’s no substantive counter to make, as your position isn’t substantive either. We’re both speculating. But, in today’s NFL it seems way more likely that a team will stick to a committee rather than one guy dominating things. There are exceptions, sure, but the arrow does trend in the committee direction. So while we’re both merely speculating, it seems more reasonable to be rooted in my position than it does to be rooted in yours. Being as grounded as you are in your opinion, where you seemingly aren’t even open to considering the alternative, is downright silly.
“Yeah if I had Carter I’d be selling for anything I could. Not much value in a small backup RB on a bottom tier offense of fantasy production. At best you get a McKissic or Hines type role in the future. And that’s a reach imo. Have fun with Carter”
Not sure how any of what I said is silly. He is small for the position. He is now destined to be used as a 3rd down/pass catching back (aka McKissic and Hines) after the team just drafted over him with the best RB in the class. I’m not buying guys like Smooches and Hines or even MG3 that other OP brought up, so why would I want in on a less proven RB fitting a similar role?
Best case for Carter owners is a 50/50 split that will only decrease as Breece gets going in years 1 and 2. Just not someone I was high on before Breece, let alone after.
Day 3 RB, DC matters
Not to mention that Saleh spent years watching Shanahan use 4+ backs regularly. For the cost, I’d much rather have Carter
Shanahan has only regularly used 4 backs because of injuries to his starters. When he picks a RB to feed that guy gets a majority of the volume and is a huge asset in fantasy.
In past years, the lead healthy back has been a lock for 20ish carries a game, the Niners just can't keep a single guy on the field long enough to lock down the job in multiple years.
The lesson Saleh probably learned is not to overwork one back. Have a stable of talented backs.
Maybe he did, but 1. We have no way of knowing that either way because he hasn't intimated that sentiment at any point, and 2. that doesn't change the fact that citing the Shanahan system as one that features multiple backs isn't at all accurate
I wouldn't put that much stock in Shanahan's philosophy of 1 back or multiple backs as a big influence on Saleh. He and his staff can see that the league is made up of committees for good reason. Shanahans bad luck with RBs just backs it up. Hell Shanahan keeps drafting backs every year because he can't keep them healthy. You need a bunch of RBs to make it through a season.
I was addressing the guy in the comment thread who was asserting that Shanahan uses multiple backs, and that because of that, Saleh would use multiple backs running the same system (which objectively isn't how the Shanahan system has worked).
What you're positing certainly sounds logical, but that's not always how coaches think or act. The truth of the matter is that although we can only guess at how Saleh might divide up the work, I feel pretty confident he didn't trade up in the 2nd round to draft this class's top ranked RB just to run a split 50/50 timeshare between Hall and an undersized 4th round RB.
In terms of yielding fantasy value, even something like a 60/40 split favoring Hall with goal line work would be enough to make him worth the draft capital, especially if he's efficient with his carries in a Nick Chubb sort of way.
I think the problem is a lot of people don’t overthink it. They assume good things will happen. They assume when a player is trending a certain way that trend will continue, but that just isn’t the case a lot of the time. At a certain point it becomes a crapshoot and you gotta find the timeshare RBs that are able to produce in a timeshare. A guy like Chubb has a limited ceiling, but his floor is being a top 10 RB, and that’s not a bad pick necessarily.
This is why I like Michael Carter this yr despite them drafting Hall. I've seen comments of users convinced Hall will be used as a bell cow...I just don't see it.
I think Carter will likely have the pass catching role mostly to himself, and will prolly get his carries in as well. I just have trouble seeing it being a super valuable role in the Jets offense. It’s not a great offense and Wilson isn’t a guy who’s big on checkdowns to the RB.
Half this sub is convinced Wilson is the top sleeper QB pick this year lol
That doesn't seem like an unreasonable assumption though. You can dismiss that as mindless hype, but the Jets had a top 15 O-line last year despite Becton being hurt, and now Wilson is set to have upgraded weapons across the board between Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Uzomah, Conklin, Corey Davis, and Elijah Moore.
Compare that to the Bears who did almost nothing for Justin Fields this offseason, the Jags who are trusting Christian Kirk to be Trevor Lawrence's top receiver, the Niners who still haven't officially named Lance the starter, and the Patriots who hid Mac behind a run-heavy scheme, and it's not hard to see which of last year's rookie QBs got the biggest boost this offseason.
Damn dude you didn’t watch Breece play FSB? Carter is good but Hall is a legit RB1.
Damn dude you haven't watched the NFL for the past decade lol?
It has nothing to do with Hall's talent...teams just run RBBC with few exceptions.
I think a 60/40 split is reasonable to expect for Breece/Carter, and even that makes Breece a valuable RB in fantasy.
I think I was just more surprised he didn’t want to go get a bigger bag. I believe he can get $4 mill with incentives, but I just thought he would want one more 2-3 year deal for a bit more. I respect that he wanted to come back to chase a ring. Still showed he can be a good back in a time share.
Any particular teams you think may have been a good fit at that cost?
I wonder if he his ending time with LAC tarnished his FA market at all.
No one in particular, just thought at 29 he would try to secure one final multi year deal. I also don’t hate that he took less to win. You have to love that vet mentality.
Yep fair points.
Bills were looking for more of a speed/receiving back to complement Devin Singletary, hence trying to sign JD McKissic and drafting James Cook. Gordon would’ve just duplicated what they have on the roster.
MG3's nickname is literally Flash, he nearly hit 22 MPH on a TD run last year.
His nickname is Flash because of his last name, not because he’s a notorious speed/receiving back. He’s 4 years past his peak as a receiver, and RBs don’t magically get faster going into their age-29 season. I’m not saying he’s not still an effective RB, but he’s not what the Bills we’re looking for.
I’m a big fan of brothers tbh. Gut feeling Cook will be James Cook will be another stud.
I’m 100% on you with the Bills. Dolphins signing Mostert and Edmonds kind of ruined that idea.
I think for anything more than he signed for, no one was really interested or vice versa MG3 wasn’t interested due to situation. I’m sure someone like atlanta would have paid him, and I’m sure someone like LAR would not have. So he found the happy medium.
I thought there was an outside chance he would end up back with the Chargers if the cost was right.
Oh. I don’t disagree. I just don’t think they wanna employ 7 RBs haha.
I thought the same
TB, BUF, AZ, KC, IND, TEN, NO, SF are all potential playoff teams that could use him
Would have paid him >$5 mil?
I think he wants a place where he’d actually get carries, and in most of those spots he’d at least start out as a backup. He might be better than Fournette or Conner or CEH or maybe even Mitchell, but he would have to learn the scheme a bit and would need an injury to get him the starting job year 1, and until then he’d likely get little action.
Colts would not have been in the market for Melvin Gordon. They have JT and Nyheim Hines already, both more effective than him for what they want to do. Tennessee already has a stud RB as well as depth. Why would you put Gordon on this list? SF under Shanahan wants pure speed at the RB position, and always releases older players, backfilling with younger talent. The other teams may have been looking at Gordon, but those three were not.
Because spelling JT and Henry with a stud vet like Gordon is the smart move, rather than running them into the ground. Neither of those teams have good depth behind them. It reduces injury risk, player fatigue and adds depth to a run first team. Makes complete sense
Colts paid Hines good money to backup JT. He is perfectly capable of it. You typically don't need that backup to also be a bruiser. Many effective rushing attacks in the NFL have two different ribs that work together. It sounds like you're reaching.
He wanted a bigger bag. That's why it took so long to sign. Everyone said no. Denver always wanted him for cheap, they said so all off-season. He went and tested the market then came crawling back when he couldn't get anything better. This isn't a ring chase. It's a last resort.
Eh I don’t know about that. He may not have got the offers he wanted to, but it sounds like a ring chase from this article.
Pretty sure he wanted money & ring. He definitely took his time, and he’s talked about not being sure he wanted to stay in a committee. He also fired his agent so I don’t think things went exactly the way he wanted.
Lol man that is chaos. I didn’t know he fired his agent.
Easy to say before Denver made an offer and after everyone else said no. If it was always for the ring he'd have been the first FA signed. Instead he was one of the last.
He was in discussions with Baltimore at some point, so I don’t know if it no one wanting him is ultimately true. Probably just wasn’t the offer he wanted and knows that he has volume opportunities in Denver.
No one wanted him at his asking price is what the final actions show. I'm not saying his preferred destination wasn't Denver, just that it's not as noble a cause because he clearly went out and tested the market for a bigger pay day and it the jags/hou offered 4.1 million/year for 2 years he'd probably be gone.
Possibly, but we won’t know for sure if those teams didn’t pursue and he turned it down because they won’t compete. It is all about his attitude now at this point. You gotta have the buy in to be successful.
I kept telling everyone paying or asking for overall RB3 value for Williams was nuts. This was always the most likely outcome. Buy Williams mid-season when he's putting mid-RB2 numbers assuming the owner is asking for appropriate value. Too often in dynasty players get valued at their absolute ceiling. That is the time sell, sell, sell.
Ya I think fantasy wise be better but as a team is good to have Gordon. They are going for a super bowl run
What a Boone for Denver!
I’ll be pretty okay with drafting MG3 at his discount this year.
Guy was productive last year, and the year before, and was previously a top 5-caliber fantasy back.
Javonte is talented. Both backs can be productive. Cost will be important.
Apologies to everyone who wants 30 Javonte touches weekly.
They both hit 900 yards past season with 9-in-the-box Teddy at QB. I don’t know where they go, but there’s a lot of value in both of them.
For me, I’m likely to have more MG3 than Javonte, strictly due to cost. I’ll pay up a few picks to take MG3 vs where his ADP may be, but to do that with Javonte you’ll have to pass up on absolute studs. Not saying it might not be worth it, just won’t be my drafting preference.
I think Jovante has absolutely elite potential, but yeah MG is the better cost and last season he was the redzone guy. He’s elite and not being tackled behind the LOS. Javonte isn’t, so while Javonte is more of a power back MG3 is actually the better redzone back so far. He has the better vision.
It definitely makes grabbing Javonte scary with as high as he’ll go.
Was he really the goal line back? I remember them, for the most part (there were some games, particularly toward the end of the season where they strayed), going individual series then switching next series. That being said I remember mg3 having more success at the goal line.
Yeah, Gordon has scored at least 9 TDs every season dating back to 2016. A streak which leads the league. He’s absolutely elite at getting at least 3 yards every single carry. He almost never goes backwards.
Javonte is more boom or bust. If Gordon didn’t have fumble and injury issues he’d be an elite back himself, but he’s always had a nose for the end zone.
Javonte only had 4 rushing TDs last year, and 7 total. I think he could be a pretty good goal line back, but unless he literally fumbles it away Gordon’s the goal line guy because he’s literally like top 3-5 as a goal line back in the league.
gotta factor in both change in coaching and change at QB. Really difficult to gauge if they'll actually have a dedicated goal line back or it'll be just whoever is in on the drive, and if Wilson doesn't want to throw it in those situations.
Do you think the offense keeps the same pass/run ratio with Russ at QB? I wonder if they let him cook which leads to less total carries to split
Russ will be best in a play action heavy offence so there will be lots of running
Lol that’s whole reason Russ wanted out of Seattle. Dude wants play in a throw first offense.
I’m a bad person to ask this because I think Wilson is insanely overrated. Letting him “cook” cost the Seahawks games (and yes, won many as well).
If anything, I would probably expect the pass volume to stay the same/maybe go down - because a lot of the incomplete passes from prior years may now be completed lol. 3 and outs with 2 passes and 1 run, with no completions, might turn into 1 completion, 2 runs and a score.
Even as a Wilson hater, he’s obviously worlds better than any QB Denver has his since Peyton.
I'd look more to what Hackett did in Green Bay versus what Russ did in Seattle or what Denver did last year - to me that's the best indicator of run/pass breakdown.
I don’t disagree with that, only caveat I would suggest is that AFC West is a powerhouse. If teams are putting up points, Russ might have to throw more. Which, ultimately, results in too many unknowns for me to feel too confidently one way or another.
That's a good point - Chargers are loading up on D, otherwise I'm not overly scared of the other teams defensive units... so might be a "load up on AFC West guys" kinda year.
Letting him cook kept them in games when their defense couldn’t do shit. In 2020 for instance, their defense was struggling a ton the first half. They beat the Falcons 38-25. Beat the Pats 35-30. Beat the Cowboys 38-31. Dolphins 31-23, Vikings 27-26. Lost to the Cardinals 37-34, beat the 49ers 37-27, lost to the Bills 44-34. Russ had to cook to win every single one of those games. League average PPG is around 22. The lowest scoring opponent in that first 8 games was 23. Their offense fizzled out a bit the second half of the season, but without Russ cooking they weren’t gonna have a winning record.
Even if they pass more than they did last year, there should still be plenty of carries to go around because of how vastly improved this offense will be.
There’s two sides to this. First of all, you’re correct that having a better QB will tend to lead to more passing. However, on the flip side, they’re likely to take the lead a lot faster and a lot more than they did last year. It also depends on their defense though. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the offense passes more than it did last year, but also they’ll likely have their possessions last a bit longer, allowing them to run more plays total, and there will be more valuable goal line touches to go around. Overall, I think it’ll prolly be a net positive for the RBs, but it’s a much bigger improvement for the WRs.
For a serviceable depth guy and probably at top 3 handcuff, I'll gladly take MG3 later in the draft. If Javonte goes down then Melvin is gonna see a solid workload.
"Team that just re-signed an RB plans to use him"
Not that this was in much doubt, but tldr; Jeff Legwold, a broncos writer pretty much said to expect the 50-50 timeshare the Broncos had last season for MG3 and Javonte as long as both stay healthy
As a Bronco fan, I'll take it. With Russ making teams respect the pass, these two should eat what Russ is cooking.
Yeah from a football perspective this just makes sense, you guys have one of the best tandems in the league, and splitting carries is a way to keep them both healthy. It only sucks for fantasy
It’s okay javonte will still eat
That low calorie diet with the shitty microwavable meals
Javontes gonna FEAST this year
….on low cal slim fast
Fruit and nut bars with reduced sugar
Lived off them lol
He'll eat what he did last year. An rb2 finish with some flashes barring an injury. But he'll cost substantially more draft capital to do so.
Just not as much as you guys thought :(
Shout out to that guy here who kept messaging me about how Williams won’t split carries after that one good game
It looks like OP posted an AMP link. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of [concerns over privacy and the Open Web](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot).
Maybe check out **the canonical page** instead: **[https://www.espn.com/blog/denver-broncos/post/_/id/40599/denver-broncos-still-plan-for-javonte-williams-and-melvin-gordon-to-share-carries](https://www.espn.com/blog/denver-broncos/post/_/id/40599/denver-broncos-still-plan-for-javonte-williams-and-melvin-gordon-to-share-carries)**
^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot)^( | )[^(Summon: u/AmputatorBot)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/cchly3/you_can_now_summon_amputatorbot/)
I personally love the RBBC chaos
If you can read it right, it's how you can win. Everyone knows Dalvin, etc. are getting all the carries. But if you can read into the situations right that are murkier, you can reap value. I won a title last year with Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott, Cordarrelle Patterson, Elijah Mitchell and Damien Harris at RB (Scott more just a last minute fill in for title week). Embrace the chaos - you'll miss on a few guys, but if you can logically figure some of the situations out that people are avoiding, you can wind up with a top 10 RB at a top 30-50 price.
Edit: Why the downvotes, lol? Do people disagree with this? Ultimately you have to find something the masses aren’t aligned with to break from the pack.
What did the rest of your team look like? Those RBs alone will never get anyone into the playoffs, much less win the whole thing.
Josh Allen and Justin Herbert at QB, Deebo, Diontae, Mike Williams, and when he was on the field Antonio Brown at WR. Kyle Pitts and George Kittle as TEs. Half PPR auction league, 12 team.
I won my league with a playoff RB combination of RoJo, Zeke, and Damien Harris. If you play Superflex and/or 3 WRs, you can easily get away with mediocre RBs. RBs lose their value the more positions you have.
Makes sense both looked good last year.
Alexa, play “Say It Ain’t So” by weezer
LIKE FATHER STEPFATHER THE SON IS DROWNING IN THE FLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD
Nathaniel Hackett does seem to prefer the RBBC approach historically, but his offenses have also generally run the ball more than other teams do. In addition, he has a pretty good track record with producing fantasy RBs (like Leonard Fournette or Aaron Jones in his recent stops as an OC). Still like Javonte a lot for this season, and news like this should only make him cheaper
It makes way more sense to run a committee in the NFL nowadays. Workhorses get hurt eventually, and then you have to expect a second stringer to come off 8 weeks of no play and fill that need
i am a javonte owner and i honestly think they are more productive in a tandem then one of them/ javonte alone. This way javonte will not be run into the ground and still have a decent points output. i rather have a healthy RB with a capped ceiling than a hurt one that has 1 monster week and then misses the rest of the year.
And dude loves the grind. William eats contact and having Gordon is a good way of allowing that.
May they burn in hell. I have both of them and was hoping for two RB1s instead of two guys scoring 11
And 9 each week
Going to get Williams at a discount keep writing things like this. I’m not worried about it kids a beast
I feel like it’s the opposite. Mg3 gonna be the much better value imo
He's got a nose for the endzone. And obviously there is a new HC, OC, QB, and starting TE. So even if there's a lot of changes to the offense, if the near-even split continues there isn't much reason to think their production changes much from last year. Unless they go super pass heavy and let Russ cook, but I'm pretty sure we had a decent sample size to prove that Russ does not know his way around a kitchen.
I don’t know - they let him test the market and not find anyone with any appetite for him for months, they were fully ready to move along until MG got to the point where he’d sign a minimal deal to get some work. Brandon Bolden got a better deal than he did. I think it’s smart football sense to have two solid backs, but I don’t think it’s the 50/50 split it was last year.
What's the discount? He was probably near a top 5 pick without Gordon in redraft. Now he'll probably be a late first/early 2nd. Hardly a discount for someone losing about 20% plus workload.
Exactly. Top 5 pick in the early 2nd is a great discount. Respectfully idk where that 20% number comes from but I’m not worried about Melvin at all
Anyone worried about a 29 year old RB is just paranoid. Workhorse RBs are rare today as most get injured. Javonte is clearly their guy going forward and having Gordon to give him breaks isn’t terrible. The backfield should shift more in Javontes favor so no need to panic.
I'm a Javonte truther all day in terms of talent but he went from a true opportunity at a top 5 maybe even top 3 back. I'd almost say he'd be a Vegas odds favorite with JT and Henry to be in that range without Gordon. He can still be an RB1 (half the RB1s last year were in committe) but the probability of elite is much lower.
Dynasty, this means nothing but a slightly diminished return for a year. Still elite there.
Just let javonte be free damnit
Derrick Henry wasn’t built in a day
Henry looked like a grown ass man in 8th grade, but bigger
Man let Melvin rest. SMH
As long as Melvin stays healthy anyway
Thats how football works, yes
That’s how Melvin Gordon works, yes
Awww...someone is new to fantasy. Welvome to the league, rookie.
Coming from the guy asking for advice on Cole Beasley. Get with it, imp
Obviously. Why would they have resigned Gordon if that wasn’t the case?
If you’re drafting Javonte, ultimately you’re stashing him on the chance that Melvin becomes injured. Not a bad plan, but don’t pay too much for him by drafting too soon…
It’s hilarious this sub and r/dynastyff thought the Bronocs weren’t going to bring in another RB and give Javonte the whole work load.
I mean, that caps his upside obviously, but he should still have a breakout year
I'll still draft Javonte. Could see Melvin Gordon seeing good usage, but if he gets injured again, Javonte gonna feast.
Might share a breakfast too
Traded a 4th for MG3 and 2.01 last year. Turned 2.01 into Mac Jones. Pretty happy.
Does anyone else think this drops Javonte out of Rd1 in redraft? How far we think he's going?
Denver Broncos still plan to use running backs.
Fuck dis. I would have 100% taken Javonte mid-late 2nd if Gordon was out of the picture.
I don’t believe it. It’s javonte season no way Melvin stays healthy all year again
I drafted javonte because I like promising backs behind older, likely to get injured backs. Gordon didn't get injured but Javonte was still serviceable. Don't see really how Gordon getting re signed changes anything.
A day late, but now I can say I saw this coming lol.
I'm gonna pry jav bone off this sucker in my keeper
Fantasy pros had Javonte ranked so high last season and I just didn’t get it. I had him and I wanted to drop him every week.
I've got a trade offering me Joe Burrow, the 2022 1.03 and the 2.01 for my Aaron Rodgers, Javonte Williams, 22 1.01, and Elijah Moore.
Would I be stupid to trade those assets away? I have been actively trying to get Burrow since this is a dynasty league. It's single QB and this is the most compromising offer the Burrow owner can come up with.
seems like a terrible trade for you ngl
Tough to say - dynasty standpoint AR is about to retire in the coming seasons so getting an up an coming QB for years to come could be a solid option. Joe Burrow *should* be good for years to come with chase. I don't see Elijah moore being a big impact player with who the Jets signed recently.
Javonte would be the big loss in the future seasons after gordan leaves but really depends on who you can get in those 1.03 and 2.01 spots
This doesn't really say anything we didn't already know. Of course Gordon is going to get carries, but this doesn't imply it will be exactly like last year. If anything I think they mostly brought Gordon back because they signed Wilson and didn't want to change the RB room too much with a new QB.