T O P
OohMaiJosh

Kyler or Lance has been a tough one to decide on


ContinuousWagging

Start the studs, no time to get cute


Tuco86x

Go down with the ship! Not in the dingy


_Magnolia_Fan_

Kyler is fired up. Or on tilt. Not sure which or what effect either has on his play...


The_4th_Little_Pig

I hope he makes it a shoot out since I have Dak and my opponent has the Dallas D.


DocterSteveBrule

Try kyler or hurts


bestnottosay

If you have this problem, you've had it for a while now. Kyler vs. Lance are people without a backup or people like me who had been holding Jimmy G as their backup


DocterSteveBrule

Not really! I’ve always preferred kyler over hurts but honestly this week is my championship and the matchups make it a really tough choice considering how iffy Murray has been.


planegozoomzoom

Kyler. Start your studs


[deleted]

Against arguably the best D with limited offensive weapons? Pass.


eloh1m

Crazy as a Cowboys fan to see this sentence


DocterSteveBrule

Over hurts vs Washington?????


RR-JJ

Going with Hurts over Kyler personally.


DocterSteveBrule

I’m going to be back and forth until Sunday. My heart says roll with Kyler, I drafted him earlier. But my mind say Hurts because of the tempting matchup. Right now Hurts is in.


eloh1m

Easily Hurts


BasedLarz

Literally


raikou1988

First time in the championship in a long fucking time. Managed to pick up Hurts . Do I play him over Kyler? This is hands down my biggest fantasy decision ever


JoeKarateKid

Pick up Hurts? LMFAO


raikou1988

Yeah someone one dropped him during his bye in week 14 . We only have 5 bench spots and they needed to make moves to get into the playoffs. I already clinched a spot at the time and burned my waiver on him when Kyler was in a slump.


IMissMyZune

I picked him up a few weeks ago too


slimyshade

Hard decision, I think it matters If you need a better floor or ceiling. Are you projected high or lower than opponent


raikou1988

We are pretty much neck to neck in terms of projections. I'm going to be completely honest and tell you I'm not even sure if ceiling or floor is the better play.


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Deathwishrok

I need Goedert to come thru huge for me. Im vs Andrews in the ship. Goedert imo is due for a td or two. He was wide open in the endzone vs the giants and hurts didnt even see him!


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LeWhite90

That was Minshew tho, who actually saw him and put it on him.


RR-JJ

Minshew started the game vs NYJ, not Washington two weeks ago. Goedert had the big game against the Jets, not Washington.


TheCakeMan666

No it wasn't.


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TheCakeMan666

He is wrong.


LeWhite90

Appreciate it! Im split on him over Knox. I think im leaning Geo again


FromdaRocks

We are just going to pretend like hurts can’t rush TDs..


hazardousblue10

Any insight if Howard is going to be out or not?


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hazardousblue10

Thank you. I hope the eagles stick to running the ball with all these injuries to rbs. Instead of trying to air It out. I’ve got an rb issue in my ppr league: swift, Darrell Williams, cordelle Patterson, Damien Harris, Boston Scott, chase Edmonds. Gotta pick 3 of those. I currently have swift, Williams and Harris in. But I keep second guessing myself. Gonna be tough lol


Just4Football

Not doubting you but how do you know they’re gonna feed Boston so much? Every time I play him I get burned. Would you start him over penny or swift?


[deleted]

How certain are you of touches for Scott? Do you think he gets fed even if Howard plays?


bpark2808

Howard not playing?


dggg

Would you start Dak over Hurts?


BobbyY0895

Hurts > dak in finals


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oldhoekoo

probably would be playing in the ship if I had done that last week........


Ll_ee_itt

Scott over mitchel or javonte?


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bestnottosay

And Drew Lock throwing it. Javonte / MG3 owner here seriously considering Scott as RB2 regardless of Howard and running 4 WRs even though two of them are Kirk and Meyers


LeWhite90

You liking Geodert over Knox then??


[deleted]

I’d play Hurts


homerunaaron

Play hurts for sure


raikou1988

Any particular reason as to why? I'm looking for any opinions here .


homerunaaron

He has a much better floor imo because of kylers matchup and Washington d sucks. See what Dallas did to them last week


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[deleted]

Welp. I was leaning Huntley over Lance, but now I don’t know. I have Deebo as well and I don’t like the idea of them both busting and losing me the ship


The-FF-Forge

Houston's pass D ain't half shabby, I like the logic of avoiding a double bust there. And worst case, Huntley should have opportunities for garbage time stats to beef up a poor or middling game.


scallywag1980

I feeel the last few weeks have proven the ravens can score with a second or third string qb easily so I’m going with Huntley who floor is better than what’s projected here


THEshampooMASTER

Hill over Lance


The-FF-Forge

We have the same QBs! I'm going the other route though. May we both get 30+ points :)


bpark2808

I am too I’m going Lance over Hill. Pray for me


The-FF-Forge

Easy, prayers being sent. Lance failing would be a very 2021 Fantasy Football sub thing to happen. Give us ONE victory dear lord!


_kehd

You’ve ranked my QBs adequately. I approve these rankings lol Thanks for putting in the work


crazywe

Why are so many people hyped on Lance? Starting Lance over Brady? Don’t overthink it people…


The-FF-Forge

Yeah I've responded to that one a few times. I'd trust the old goat unless I absolutely felt I needed a monster game from the QB position.


_mdz

Why does Lance have the upside but Brady doesn’t? Lance has about 6 quarters of football and hasn’t lit the world on fire in any of them. Brady’s the QB1 on the season and has had some absolute high ceiling weeks even in lopsided matchups.


The-FF-Forge

Well, they have almost the exact same (expected) ceiling judging from the tint of red and that they're both 25pts. Bit busy today so I can't go into too much detail but I'll go through 3 quisk(ish) things. 1. There is a reason I called out how high Lance is off to the side of the chart. I don't like him being THAT high either. [I don't like to tinker unless there is a specific objective reason to do so. Like horrible weather, extreme changes in usage etc. The results prove my concerns wrong as often or more than what I THINK they should look like. Just last week, Josh Johnson was higher than I felt comfortable with, but he came out and had a week. So I'd rather let the projections do their thing and learn what the strengths / weaknesses are from there.] 2. There seems to be a bit of a bias for rushing QBs. And although, that is accurate for fantasy football... especially in 4pt / td, .04pt / pass yd leagues... I think it's a bit exaggerated and hope to find a way to temper that in the off-season without wrecking what I've built. 3. (2 parter) (a)- There is a factor of recency bias built in which I both like and dislike, which I'm sure handicaps Brady given his last 2 performances. (b)- If recollection serves me, Brady is definitely one of the guys who smashes the expected ceiling from time to time... among others but possibly more so than many. Moat of them have gone below the floor or above the ceiling at some point and that is by design. These aren't absolute ceilings/floors... they're (approximately) what you could, most likely, expect out of a very good or very poor game. Every guy has a floor of zero and a ceiling of like 40+ pts every single week, technically; but that would be useless information to try to base decisions on. Edit: 4. Small sample sizes like Lance's (can) get a bias (good or bad) this late in the season. As they may not have "failed" or "succeeded" yet. Lance averaging 60yds on the ground, in his 2 games used for data, may not be realistic (that's Lamar like) but... it's what he has done so far.


inderm88

This makes my decision of Murray or Herbert harder... Leaning toward Herbert with all the Broncos on covid list


yungjahovah

Herbert or Lance?


gorillapunchTKO

Herbert is QB2 in standard. With the postseason on the line there's no way you should be sitting him.


Maverick_Con

So Lance > Brady? Oh boy


The-FF-Forge

I mean, if you got the gonades, I suppose so.


mahorwitz

Huntley or Lance?


The-FF-Forge

That's a great question lol. Huntley for upside, Lance for floor. That's what I'm saying and I'm sticking with it!


mahorwitz

Lance it is then!


The-FF-Forge

I've got him going too... hold onto our pants! This could be a bumpy ride.


RynoBud

Lance or Burrow… my opponent having Deebo may factor into my decision


sky2k1

I'm currently debating this right now -- except I have deebo. So that may sway me for trying to stack those points.


RynoBud

Yeah I think if I didn’t have Mitchell too I’d be more inclined to start Trey. Burrow has only let me down like once this season. May have to start my stud idk


sky2k1

I only ever had burrow for last week after lamar went down, so I haven't had that mindsight with him. But if he's been considered all year stud, that sways me back a little to him. I hate the stress of the championship, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere else but here.


eericcartman

Why does it matter when deebo gets half his points rushing? Lol


RynoBud

Goddamn ain’t that the truth lol


iamfragile

Huntley or Russ is making me go mad


The-FF-Forge

Lmao, and this doesn't help that much huh. I'd go Huntley if had confidence in the rest of my team, but if I had a few boom/bust guys on my roster, I would just trust Russ not to shit out a single digit game.


fergster75

I have made it to the ship streaming QBs. Take me to the promise land trey lance!


PerchiN808

So you’re saying Trey Lance has a higher floor and the same ceiling as burrows? I’m in!!


The-FF-Forge

TBF... Burrow has had many more opportunities to fail than Lance AND Lance has averaged about 6 fantasy pts through rushing yds alone, in his 2 starts. I would personally stick with Burrow if choosing between the two.


dudehawke

Guess I'm rolling trey Lance Over brady hold me


The-FF-Forge

For dear life! I will not let you go, no matter the circumstances lol. If you have the superior team I think Brady has the safe floor where Lance has the ceiling but that comes with plenty of risk. Good luck!!


dudehawke

Does brady have the better floor even if AB and evans are out?


The-FF-Forge

Last week wasn't promising for what I'm about to say but... for almost his entire career he made due with below average receiving corps. I have a hard time not trusting him (to have a floor) versus one of the worst pass defenses I'm the league.


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guitarpinecone

Seriously still struggling with Kyler vs Lance. Kyler has definitely underwhelmed, I’ve got Dallas D slotted in at this point. This chart shows a lot of confidence in Lance which I don’t quite have myself. Looking for a ceiling play, but just keep going back and forth between the two.


The-FF-Forge

I think, if I were the one saying "looking for a ceiling play", I would go with Trey. I would not feel comfortable with it, as the Cowboys vs Arizona game could so easily be a barn burner and I doubt the same is true of HOU vs SF. Either SF kills them, or it's an ugly game IMO. So, yeah. That's really, really tough lol.


Quackerbarrels

Lance over Dak?


The-FF-Forge

I'd just trust my stud. That game could get out of control where Lance's points should come slow but steady. Take the guy who's done it time and time again, and just proved he's feeling better last week.


abalensi

Brady or Lance?👀👀👀 standard scoring


The-FF-Forge

Lance = Ceiling and Brady = Game Manager. Brady probably won't lose you your week, Lance COULD win you the week but, could also lose it for ya.


JustaSillyGooseTime

Stuck between Burrow and Lance in superflex, cant make myself sit Herbert


The-FF-Forge

Understandable. He's a stud, I doubt I would too. Check Burrows weather on Sunday. If there is wind of like 20ish MPH, that should make your decision easy.


DmanDaBeast

Burrow or Hill? I’ve played burrow practically all year and it’s hard to bench him after last week.


The-FF-Forge

I like the studs this week. Let 4 fingers Hill go off on your bench and expect Burrow to produce. If the weather worsens from what I last saw for CIN v KC, maybe the tide shifts. Keep an eye on that I'd say.


F_cking-LizardKing

Do I dare start Lance over Herbert


HornsUp1

So we're thinking Lance is in fact a safer option than Huntley? I'm the favorite and I need high floor low risk!


The-FF-Forge

I do not think that actually. My concerns for Lance, beyond the obvious unknown factor, lie within Houston (surprisingly) having a solid pass D, the amount of plays that will be ran, leading to the (lower) amount of TDs one could expect, and the likelihood that SF runs the ball at a very high % in this game. So... although I like him, I see alot of paths to a mediocre and hopefully not bad game. For Huntley, although I think he probably had his best career game ever vs GB... and I think that could be a bit of a mirage for what to expect from him... they are going up against a high profile offense with a sputtering defense (BAL's D), to put it lightly. He offers the same ground game assets as Lance for fantasy purposes, so I think that Huntley has a better chance of not busting completely. If BAL is behind late, Huntley may get some open targets and scramble plenty. If SF is up by a lot, they continue to run. If they are not up by a lot, Lance is probably not having a big game and so there's no guarantee he turns it around late. If my goal is to avoid a single digit game, I think I go Huntley, hold my breath, and accept it if Lance scores more pts; so long Huntley doesn't lose me the matchup on his own, which I just explained why I think he will have the opportunity not to do.


HornsUp1

Wow, this is awesome analysis. Lines up with exactly my concerns in a 2QB matchup where I’m the favorite and just don’t need a bust. If you asked me who will score more fantasy points, I’d bet Lance. And believe he’s the one more likely to score over 20. But who is more likely to score below 10 points? It’s unfortunately Lance as well. So for me, a 65% favorite on yahoo, I need to figure out if I sack up and go Lance or go the lower bust rate Huntley as my QB2 and try and win the matchup elsewhere


Deathwishrok

Fuck. I was determined to stick w Dak over Kyler this week. Is it not the right play?


The-FF-Forge

What a choice! Hmm, Dallas' defense sure could frustrate Kyler and limit his ground game. I don't think that's the worst of calls. I say stick to the gut On that one.


Deathwishrok

Thanks!


GrammarHunter

I'm between Dak and Hurts. I've picked wrong the last 4 weeks between them


Deathwishrok

Who u picking this week? Lmao


RubyRhod

I got Dak and Burrow. Struggling.


dat_grue

Same. It feels like a really tough call, but also one in which you can’t really go wrong. I’m leaning dak actually. Daks at home in a dome where he tends to play really well. I think that game has the makings of a shootout vs an Arizona team that I feel will bounce back and get their offense right again after a few disappointing weeks. Burrow is facing a fairly stingy KC defense (check out their last 4 games). I don’t think AZ defense is quite as good or hot. both dak and burrow are equally “hot” off last weeks insane performances, so I think probably can’t go wrong… but I think KC should be better defensively than AZ A lot will also hinge on any key covid inactives. That could sway it for me one way or other


bestnottosay

Dak is absolutely the correct play


Deathwishrok

Thanks


mercutiosghost

I somehow lucked into both Rodgers and Hurts. I’m leaning Rodgers despite the cold. Thoughts?


The-FF-Forge

Unless I felt I needed 25+ pts from my QB, I think I would trust Rodgers not to bust, more than Hurts. If you're comfortable with it, I have zero qualms. And as a Packer fan, hells to the yeah!


mercutiosghost

Thanks! Pretty much what I was thinking! This is my third straight year in the finals and I haven’t won one yet. Terrified of a wrong choice sinking me.


The-FF-Forge

Oh snap. Good luck! It's a good feeling.


browenwilson9489

I feel like the Packers will get up early big and then not throw 2nd half given Minnesota situation though. I’m also going against Josh Allen so likely leaning Hurts given I also have Jefferson and have zero clue how that’s going to go


mcduhh

I have a question for you. Would you go with Rodgers if your opponent had Adams? I’m in your situation and think I have to go 12


mercutiosghost

My opponent DOES have Adams! I’ve always tried to not get cute though


[deleted]

Personally, I’d go Hurts. Rodgers has a broken toe, it’s going to be around 0° at night in Green Bay and the wind chill will be even colder. You’ve got Cousins out and a Minne defense that can’t stop the run. Everything points to this being a grind it out type of game, with the Packers asking Rodgers to do as little as possible.


SN-Bronson

I’m back and forth between Rodgers and Stafford.


The-FF-Forge

I would go Stafford myself, even without the cold weather. Tough choice though. Real tough


Bengalblaine

Burrow over Dak?


memiespatterson

Hurts or Stafford in 5pt passing TDs?


SolomonGunnEsq

Debating Burrow and Hill. I’m torn. Everyone has them rated next to each other. It’s a coin flip. Would love to hear what people in a similar situation are doing.


GadflyShrugs

I have Mahomes, Burrow, Hill and Huntley in SF. I’m going to go Mahomes and Burrow and tie my hopes to a shootout. With the shootout possibilities and coming off last week’s game, I think you have to go with Burrow. Plus Hill busted last time out.


tx180

Hurts or Herbert. And who between taysom, Huntley or Lance.


crudestsoup

Lance over dak? Edit: disregard. Probably should read other comments before


Nedrev

Would you pick Huntley over Lance if you have Andrews for the stack?


[deleted]

I’m going with Lance or Mac Jones as good value. But burrows will be good


get_stilly

Who else made it to the ship with Russ? Do we swap for Lance/Huntley?


trump_stump

Dak or Huntley? Somehow i made the championship as the 6 seed with a 7-7 record lol


The-FF-Forge

Trust ya stud


trump_stump

Ik i just needed some support. Opponent has Jackson and Antonio Gibson so i picked up Hunt and both of Gib's backups lol


The-FF-Forge

Haha noice! Out strategize the punk


trump_stump

Trying to. Thanks man! You're a king!


WigglingMonkey

You have Trey Lance projected higher/equal to Mahomes. Seems a bit lofty.


AngryZulk

Russ or taysom? I've been chewing this over for a week now.


NikolaiBullcry

Trey Lance is available and I’ve been mulling between Taysom or Huntley. Im a little weary of how high Lance is ranked here. I feel like there is a lot more variance to his potential point total.


The-FF-Forge

Yeah, you'll see my own hesitancy with how high he is off to the right of their positioning. So many people choosing between those 3, myself included. I like Lance the most but, personally, I think Huntley has the highest ceiling due to the matchup.


NikolaiBullcry

Idk, all three players are similar archetypes. Lance has the best matchup but most unknown. Huntley has the most recent standout performance and mandrews but it’s still the Rams he’s facing. I don’t buy the whole “garbage time” yada yada argument. I’m honestly thinking Saints vs Panthers is the choice so I’m probably gonna start Taysom. He just gets so many open running lanes cause of Kamaras gravity and he just had one week for his hand to maybe heal a little more. He’s also getting Deonte Harris back who was becoming a larger part of the offense before his suspension. We’ll see what happens, my championship is probably riding on this pick vs a team with Kyler, AB, Deebo and Tyreek Hill in full ppr.


The-FF-Forge

Yeah, They're all 3 so very similar and each has reasons to believe or to shy away from them. It's real tough pickings between the 3, no doubt.


SaintTravis

So should I really start Taysom over Russ?


hurricaneditka66

I’m debating between Allen, Burrow and Lance. Allen has horrible weather. Burrow also bad weather. Lance is an unknown, but has great weather. Decisions!


_swells

Hurts or Brady?


gatchattack

I’m starting Davis mills - let’s fucking ride


Upset-Explanation-85

Herbert or Stafford? Playing against Kupp


Yu-Gi-Ohjeff

I'm having trouble with Patterson or Penny


The-FF-Forge

I don't love it but, I think Penny is the answer. Should be a good week and he's done well in that lead role.


Yu-Gi-Ohjeff

That's what I'm thinking too, cordarrelle got me here but penny is definitely looking better right now.


Yu-Gi-Ohjeff

Penny won me the championship, thanks again


BOLT38

Im torn between Huntley and Hill. I have Russ as well but I’m already starting DK and Everett I just can’t bank on 3 players on the same team


The-FF-Forge

Myself, I like Huntley a touch over Hill. Which game is more likely to end 42 - 35? NO vs CAR?! Doubt it.


JSteiger789

I’m in a huge pickle! I have Herbert and been riding him all year (also Ekeler) but have hurts as someone dropped him a few weeks ago. Leaning Hebert, what are people thinking here! Thanks for everyone’s help.


BloganMolnar

Hurts or big Ben in his last game ever at Heinz field?


_Magnolia_Fan_

So, Hill is basically the best play - between him, Kyler, and Lance? Higher floor and ceiling


The-FF-Forge

That's one way to look at it. The blue to the left of his name suggests his chances of hitting that ceiling are lower than the white next to Trey and Kyler. I don't think I could ever play Hill over both of them myself. I have Hill and Trey, and I'm rolling Trey out with a small bit of confidence.


egomonkee

This is my first time seeing your post(s), personally. How accurate are you normally?? Edit: someone who is stressing between Huntley (opp has Lamar), lance or Hill


The-FF-Forge

I just began doing my projections (for every player) and tracking them like, mid-season. I do have some of the accuracy in the post, and next year I'll have that included weekly. All in all they're not too shabby. More weeks than not the order they're in and/or a single number projection (which is not shown) are closer to reality than fantasy pros concensus ones are. The thing is, these aren't meant to be rankings; but I understand that people will see the order they're in and assume as much. Even looking at them myself it's tough not to, which is exactly why I track a singular projection and the ranked order. It was that or put them in a completely random order; which would be weird. Every week there are going to be a few who are drastically wrong (too high and too low) and there will be quite a few who are close. I like to use my projections as one tool, but not the only input in decisions. They've been more helpful than not for myself, especially for DFS purposes. I've found I've been putting together more successful squads when I use them. Including using WR and RB ones, I finished more recently. I am just collecting info on their results before tweeking and I'll make them public next year as well. I have the same 3 to choose from and I am rolling out Lance, but that doesn't mean I don't have any concerns about it. I noted in the spreadsheet that any of the top 15ish could be argued above one another. I liked Lance more than the other two prior to finishing this weeks ranks, so this just confirmed that my like was warranted. Top-3 finish... idk about that. Lance > Huntley > Hill IMO. I feelz however, Huntley has the highest ceiling due to the matchup.


egomonkee

Thanks for the thoughtful response. Makes sense, and self tested! Ha. Yeah my opponent has kupp, waddle, debo and najee so I think I need to shoot for ceiling...as you can tell by my asking which back up is the better play in a championship game


The-FF-Forge

Given these past few week, maybe Covid will make the decision for you by game time lmao. I chose to wrong year to start doing thus! What a headache it's been keeping up and updating etc. That's a rough matchup, good luck. Any given Sunday!!


kennyrockets

Huntley or Taysom Hill?? I want to start Huntley, but I feel like Cameron Jordan is going to eat him alive Edit: Aaron Donald*


throwawayr3lation

Aaron Donald* but agree, Huntley is mobile enough but he is coming off covid


kennyrockets

You're right, Aaron Donald! Thank you for the correction


MacWagon

Facing the same decision. Almost a flip of a coin…


butters1214

This is my exact decision and right now, I am leaning Hill. Match-up looks great if the Panthers are down most of their key defensive guys. Huntley will most likely have to play catch-up but the Rams defense is very tough.


kennyrockets

Taysom it is! Let's do it


Justin_Herbert10

#LEAD ME TO THE PROMISE LAND STAFFORD


The-FF-Forge

Stafford will make amends for last week! Good luck


knowslesthanjonsnow

There is 0% chance that Trey Lance has the highest floor. 0.


Unit22_

I’m in Superflex and have Rodgers, Herbert and Lance. I’ll probably roll with who got me to the final but I think Lance has the safest floor out of all 3.


seekere

Struggling w Lance or Taysom but this might make me decide


The-FF-Forge

I was planning on Lance prior to finishing these. Maybe there is more risk, but maybe not lol. Feels like a horse a piece between them.


LALuck318

As someone who has Mahomes and Stafford, I hate this graph.


iWesTCoastiN

Just can’t bring myself to start Lance over Dak


The-FF-Forge

I wouldn't either


YoungWazir786

This doesn't make Kyler or Stafford any easier


The-FF-Forge

I look over at the expected range and see the lower side much higher for Stafford. In real-world football, I think DAL's defense could frustrate Kyler. My vote is Stafford, but the good thing is they should both do well!


YoungWazir786

I'm starting ertz so I kinda wanna go Kyler but Stafford is probably gonna go for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns if I bench him


The-FF-Forge

There comes I time where you have to face reality. Whoever you pick, the other will absolutely go off and/or your pick will have a bad game.


YoungWazir786

I'll accept that lmao might as well toss a coin


AbundantLife93

Burrows or Brady? I’m projected to lose by 8 if that matters.


The-FF-Forge

If it weren't for the injuries I would say Brady, but... I lean Burrow.


IspeakalittleSpanish

Hill or Lance?


The-FF-Forge

Lance IMO. Both have concerns and similar upsides.


awfulnipples

Russ or Huntley. I go Russ, right?


biggiesmallsyall

To the windowwwww!!!


cookynarcissist

I have mahomes , Wilson, lance, and hill. I’m sure to make the wrong decision. Help please


RR-JJ

I drafted Hurts and loved every second of it, but worked a trade with Kyler coming back to me. Few weeks later, when Kyler was hurt, worked a trade to get Hurts back and now have both. Good problem to have. Neither one is a bad choice, and realistically, they probably score pretty close to each other...so I'm going with the better matchup.