By - Michael__Pemulis
>According to ESPN's Jeff Passan (subscription required), New York has offered Judge a contract "in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million and could increase it, depending on how far the San Francisco Giants -- the other top suitor -- are willing to push the market.
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have found the New York Yankees again.
Something something Hal yacht
People kept accusing the Yankees of throwing money around during years where they actually weren't doing that. They were the Yankees but they weren't being "The Yankees".
People wanted this.
I for one like it when teams (besides the angels) lock up a guy for way too long. So I’m glad that the Yankees are being “The Yankees” again.
Even with Trout, it's good for baseball that they gave him that deal. ~~The Angels are~~ Every single baseball team is rich, they can afford to keep their stars around.
The issue with the Pujols and Rendon type deals is that you're usually supposed to get a few years of good production before the inevitable decline. The Angels just sign guys and immediately they break.
Mo Vaughn comes to mind
Their payroll this season was a quarter of a billion dollars and they're always in the top 2 or 3 in payroll. It's not an accusation, it's a fact. If a quarter of a billion isn't throwing around money, I don't know what is. Just because they don't get throw around your money results doesn't mean they aren't throwing it around.
It’s cheaper to buy an actual judge.
Shit you could buy an entire circuit with that money
A lot cheaper
Get ready for the 2027 Yankees with at least $98.5M committed to 37 year old Stanton, 36 year old Cole and 35 year old Judge.
They can afford it
Just gonna pass the cost along to the consumer. Say hello to $30 chicken buckets!
Why would they bring the price down?
You think they’ll only be $30? Judge or no judge, a chicken bucket and beer will cost us $50+ in a few years even if they ran the AAA team out there
Stadium menu in 2035:
Hot dog - Arm
Beer - Leg
Chicken Bucket - Both
Nachos - Blood of a virgin
Steak Sandwich - Firstborn Child
That steak sandwich looks like good value in comparison.
Are you kidding? They don’t say how much blood of a virgin! What a tasty loophole.
Are you willing to risk it? Who knows what demonic 8+ WAR player they can summon with it
Chase for 33
As the average age on the team?
And if they win even a single chip in that span it would be worth it
Like a potato chip? There’s got to be billions of those lying around nyc
That's why they signed the big guys, to fight off the subway rats.
It’s not about finding one, it’s about *winning* one. If Stanton, Cole, and Judge don’t manage to win even a single bag of Lays for the Yankees franchise over the next five years then what was even the point? Sure you can just go to 7/11 and buy a bag, but seeing the bag of chips in that trophy case, knowing that it was awarded to you at no cost, is what is truly satisfying.
Let’s worry about that then.
I would accept it all and more horror for a ring
It’s going to be a repeat of post 2009
That would be hilarious tbh
I feel like fact that it leaked means his camp thinks/knows it’s not enough.
I think it’s the opposite- Yankees leaked it so fans don’t blame them if he doesn’t take it. Sort of “look we did everything we could!”
Maybe it’s a dual leak agreed on by both sides to give each side leverage.
If I'm Aaron, I want this whole process done asap with the maximum amount I can get. By leaking this it speeds up the timeline. So I definitely could see it as a mutual leak.
I mean can fans be that upset with ownership if he turns down that much money? That’s nearly $40m/year
I personally wouldn’t be. That’s a great number for Judge. And it’s fair.
It's never about fair. It's about market value. It's his agents job to extract as much as possible for his client. So if his agent thinks he can get more than that then he should do so and leave the decision in the hands of his client
…I didn’t say otherwise?
I doubt the Yankees would leak it after upsetting Judge by leaking the details of the deal offered in the spring. This seems like a leak from Judge's camp if I had to guess.
The Yankees didn’t just leak it. [Brian Cashman had a full on press conference about it.](https://youtu.be/3kMwF59L47M)
Yankees side has been more willing to share details about negotiations than Judges side. I would venture that’s the case again with this.
It help's accelerate Judge's negotiations with other teams as well though. It completely cuts out any sort of fiddling where teams are trying to lowball his AAV for longer deals. It also might get other teams to panic and offer something much higher than anyone else was out of fear of being outbid.
The Cleveland special. Make a sub-par offer just so you can tell your fans you tried.
Except this isn’t a subpar offer
No, you’re right, it’s a good offer. I don’t know what SF is gonna offer to sway him. Another year, slightly higher AAV? At that point, you just have to hope he wants to choose winning over the extra little $. When JRAM re-signed with us this year, he said that the money stops mattering so much when you get into the tens-hundreds of millions, and where you play at matters most.
Yeah if I were a major superstar and I had to choose between 38/8 and 40/8, I would just choose the team I liked. That 16 million is nothing relative to the deal. Contract length is just the most important imo
>The Cleveland special. Make a sub-par offer just so you can tell your fans you tried.
Hot take: The Indians offer to Lindor was very fair and the Mets are saddled with a contract that's going to age like milk.
Our front office are typically great with trades, but way too stingey when it comes to dollars. I’m surprised we got JRam to stay but that’s just cause he’s an amazing guy.
OK, the Jim Crane World Series Champ GM Special then.
There’s a spider man meme I could use here about both our teams. At least Ramirez took the discount for y’all
Except this isn't subpar. Hell, even the spring training offer to Judge was a good deal. He just wanted more.
It'd still be more than any deal Cleveland ever offered.
Never said we would. We only kept JRAM cause he’s a great guy who took a hometown discount.
I feel like this is far more likely. Judge doesn't really gain much by leaking the figure, because it's not like his agent isn't going to share that offer with other teams.
The Yankees, however, need to be able to say "See? We tried, he's just being unreasonable" when he opts to sign with another team. This is a PR move, not a negotiating tactic.
They can think whatever they want it’s a great offer. One more year and **one hundred more million** than the offer before this season. Unless other teams come running to offer 9-10 years at 40 per then this is pretty close to the limit.
Not very cash money of you
Actually it seems to be quite a lot of cash money.
Farhan is probably like 300m and one cent
[Farhan about to offer $500m](https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1426326031091204102?lang=en)
My team has no real possibility of signing Judge, so I'm team maximum chaos.
Get that money, Judge.
Im team get him out of our division.
I hear you, and it would be a bad couple of years of that bad man in our division, but he's going to get big term and he's going to get big money.
The team that signs him will love it at first, but I see his deal getting very bad, very quickly in the second half of it.
I’m a Yankees fan and I feel the same way. Ultimately I’m fine with them overpaying for judge in the back half because I think there should be more lifer players and I think the Yankees will always field a competitive team regardless
Ageeed. The more money and years Judge gets the better it is for my team that won't be paying it.
Everyone knew this was about the baseline he’d be offered. Somehow people are still surprised. This contract is gonna be silly. But sometimes you can’t take life so seriously. Cant wait for Judges bionic leg surgery in the year 2029.
I hope he gets 1 billion. Just not from my team
If Judge gets a billion, the winner I see is Shohei Ohtani.
Judge is amazing, but whoever gets him will overpay him to the extreme. No 30 year old is worth 37.5 mil a year until they're close to 40.
History has shown it never works out
Almost all of the big name free agents today are about to be overpaid.
Pay to Play
If everyone’s overpaying, no one is. - The Incredibles
At some point all this just becomes expected/fair pay.
For position players, other than ARod, I don’t think there’s ever been an albatross contract that has worked out long term. I can’t think of another off the top of my head.
Edit: so we have Votto and ARod. That’s about it.
Yeah, Manny averaged 4.6 rWAR per year, at a cost of $20MM per year. Granted, it was a huge salary at the time, but that was a good WAR per dollar even then.
Votto’s contract has been solid. 137 OPS+ and 30 bWAR in 9 seasons (4.1 bWAR/650 PA)
You can say the player performed well, but the team didn't have the budget to get players around him at his older age and are now "restarting" because of it. Even if the player performs well, which rarely happens, it hurt the organization in the long run imo.
To be fair, if having a single high-paid player on your roster wrecks your whole budget, it was pretty hopeless to begin with.
He's saying it like it ruined the Dodgers chance because they overpaid Votto.
It was the reds. They couldve paid Votto 10 bucks and a blowjob and ownership wouldn't have spent the rest of what they actually paid Votto on other players.
Depends how you define it, but I think arguably the Votto deal and the Scherzer deal worked out very well. They weren’t as old and it wasn’t as much money, but those are still two of the largest contracts ever signed and they weren’t super young when they signed them.
Scherzer isn’t a position player though.
Fair. Missed that qualifier.
Here’s the age old question about that albatross contracts. Let’s say you sign a guy for 8 years and he’s very productive for 4 of them, being a large contributing factor in winning you a World Series. Does that make the back 4 years of being a ball and chain to the organization worth it, if it was the only way to secure their services in the first place?
For a ring? 100% worth it.
Dodgers need to win another 2 WS i think, to make stomaching Mookie as a 1-2 WAR player in his last 4-5 years tolerable.
It's painful to have 32mil+ a year tied up to a shadow of a superstar player. Just ask the Angels and Tigers.
As a Dodger fan, we really need to win 2 WS over the next 5 years to soften the blow when Mookie and Freddie eventually turn into non-superstars.
Yea man, I could see that. It’s one of those things I don’t thing there’s a right or wrong answer for, it’s just dependant on the organization and your personal preferences for success
I’d also bet a lot of money on the Betts and Harper contracts aging well. Obviously just speculation.
Having the DH in the national league now is definitely going to help. If the bat still plays in a few years but the glove doesn't, both AL and NL teams can find a slot.
Harper is only going to be making $22 a year the last 3. Thats nothing.
Harper maybe, but I don’t know if Mookie’s body is going to hold up for his deal. The DH will help that immensely though.
I think Votto's has been decent. He was good up until year 8
I suppose only time will tell if it works out for Judge, Betts, and Trout too.
There's quite a few players on [this list](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=1980&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=31,38&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&page=1_50) who were both paid handsomely and performed well through their age 38 seasons.
The 'albatrosses' get publicized a lot more.
Also, this is the Yankees who gross the largest amount of revenue by a large margin. They can afford a little overpay for a star athlete.
There are some like Jason Heyward where you can argue without them a team wouldn't have won the world series, in which case the contract might not really be worth it, but it's hard to argue with a ring
$184M to give a speech but they got the ring.
Don't generational hitters generally age quite well though?
This is just wrong, there was a [thread](https://xx.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/yto9xh/evaluating_every_single_100_million_contract/) recently about every $100 million+ contract given out in free agency, and more than half of them have worked out to producing fair or surplus value, with most of the ones that worked out being position players. The really bad ones just get publicized a whole lot more and people exaggerate how badly long high paying contracts turn out (or in a contract like Cano's, people act like it was terrible because of its really ugly ending, while ignoring how much value Cano generated for the bulk of it).
Are you counting extensions? Because there have been some giant external signs that worked (Jeter’s 2003 deal is one).
I wouldn’t even say A-Rod worked out long term. The Rangers gave him up after 3 seasons, and the Yankees got him for 4 seasons before he infamously opted out. Outside of a tragedy happening, the way A-Rod’s career played out once he got the contract extension was the absolute worst case scenario for the Yankees.
The original A-Rod contract was worth its weight in gold from an on-field production standpoint; the problem was that the Rangers couldn't really afford to pay anyone else around him.
When A-Rod opted out *during the playoffs* the Yankees should have said 'see ya.'
It wasn't just during the playoffs, it was during the clinching game 4 of the World Series. At that point in his career, A-Rod had made a ton of money and had zero rings to show for it, so the media jumped all over the fact that teams play this game to win the World Series and A-Rod thought he could steal the spotlight from a World Series he wasn't participating in.
There are certain things you don't do when your team has been bounced from the ALDS 3 seasons in a row and you've got a growing reputation as a postseason choker and your team's biggest rival is on the verge of winning the World Series. IIRC, A-Rod parted ways with his agent after that snafu.
He carried our offense in the ALDS and ALCS in 2009. We wouldn't have won that ring without him
He also missed significant time due to injuries and a historic PED suspension, and added a lot of off-field controversies. From 2008-2016, he only played 140 games once, which was in 2015 as a DH. Then he was released from the team a year and a half before his contract ended.
A-Rod was vital to the 2009 World Series run, but that doesn’t change the fact that his contract extension was an absolute disaster for the Yankees.
A-Rod's career post season stats are 259/365/457. Not shabby, but well below his regular season numbers.
The 2009 playoff run is the only reason Yankee fans will acknowledge his tenure as a Yankee. He was a stain on the franchise otherwise.
During his tenure with the Yankees he put up 51.7 fWAR. The next highest Yankee, Derek Jeter, put up 36.5. He carried us to the playoffs twice, in 2005 and 2007, and carried us to the WS in 2009. Getting him was one of the best moves we've ever made. Yeah the contract ended poorly but who gives a fuck, we won a ring.
Barry Bonds? He was pretty much good until he retired.
Bonds never signed a massive deal even close to ARod or what Judge is going to sign. His longest career deal was an inflation adjusted 6 years, $160 million.
That's criminal of SF to not get help around him to win a WS then.
>History has shown it never works out
It's not common, but neither are $200-$300M contracts.
Here's [a list](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=1980&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=31,38&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&page=1_50) of players since 1980 and their production from age 31-38. Roughly 40 players have put up 25 fWAR or better in that span, and roughly 25 have been 30 or better (rounding here).
If Judge does that his contract will be neutral value.
Notice a name near the top of the list is lifetime DH Edgar Martinez (42 fWAR). Do we think 35-38 year old Judge can do better when he moves to full time DH? I think so.
The real question with Judge is his durability. The guy is so big he just gets muscle strains and stress reaction injuries like it's his job.
The DH in both leagues only benefit players and teams. But that's the main issue with Judge. Injuries are going to happen with him, just how often is the question. Would you really want to pay a guy 37.5 million/yr to play half of the contract?
>Would you really want to pay a guy 37.5 million/yr to play half of the contract?
I mean, are we talking as the owner of the NYY with an $800M revenue stream and a huge merchandise market for the likeness of the [best player in all of baseball](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=22,d), or are we talking the Kansas City Royals?
I wouldn't want to gamble my post season chances on one player, but that doesn't change regardless of whether it's Judge, Trout, Betts, Lindor, or any number of star players.
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander would like a word.
completely agree and we have to do it
> History has shown it never works out
According to what metric though? I think teams are knowingly giving these mega-contracts understanding that it's going to hurt the team in the back half of the player's career. But if they win a WS or sell a a fuckton of jerseys (or whatever dollar value these signings generate through merchandise sales) then I think they can call this a win.
I'm sitting over here wishing the Sox had overpaid for Betts. Speed is a big part of his game, so he's obviously going to drop off, but at least I'd still have my old favorite player to cheer for.
I'm a Sox fan living in Seattle and have taken the Mariner's as my second team. If you ask fans around here "Would you trade Griffey's time here for a WS?" virtually everyone will say no.
TLDR; For the love of god pay Bogaerts and Devers
My metric is based off a history of players that get paid bank + 7 years or more, and their careers turning to stone after the fact. Miggy, Carl Crawford, Pujols, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Prince Fielder, David Wright, etc, etc. Even if those players performed well you're still burning a hole in your teams overall pockets. You just can't expect players that turn a certain age to perform what they're getting paid. Injuries pile up the older you get on top of all that.
However, yes it does work a lot easier if you're the Yanks, Dodgers, or Red Sox, but for most organizations it takes years to bounce back.
The system is broken. Guys are massively underpaid in their youth, prime years. And massively overpaid as over-the-hill veterans. There has got to be a better way.
Bring. Back. The. Cream. The Clear.
Well Shohei Ohtani will be 29 next year when he is looking at a new contract. Not 30 but close enough. I expect his contract to be crazy high. You think he will live up to his contract?
Impossible for me to tell, but it'll be very interesting to see how long Ohtani can maintain excellence, or even at least all-star level ball into his 30's.
It's great for baseball if he can
With salary inflation, eight years from now $37.5 mm might not be that giant a salary, but the whole thing is a huge gamble.
Nah, the cable TV money bubble is gonna burst in the next few years. Will be super interesting to see what teams do at that point.
Teams don’t care what Judge will do at 38. The teams targeting him are trying to win now and are paying for the tail of his prime.
That's the tax for having to re-sign a star player in his prime nowadays.
The difference is that Judge looks like he takes care of his body and won’t get fat late into his 30s like everyone else
I’d imagine he sees if San Fran can match but if not he’s back in New York
Didn’t the Giants said they “would not be outspent” for Judge?
Well, a tie isn't being outspent if we ignore taxes...
The taxes are pretty similar in New York and California, and NYC has a city tax also.
As does SF
SF has crazy taxes for everything. I used to go there now and then for work and there was a freaking restaurant tax! Like you just had to pay more money to eat out or something. I still don't even know the details, but everyone I worked with was acting like it was normal.
And then you walk around the city and think "what the heck do they spend all this tax money on?"
It’s for restaurant worker health care. But your point stands about San Francisco being a feces-smeared hell scape.
Thats a living wage tax for service employees, to help offset stingy employers who don't pay their staff properly.
Did a quick search on tax rates.
California - $116,455.68 + 12.3% after $1,198,024 (married jointly) + 0.38% San Francisco tax. This comes out to $4,724,098.73 in tax on $37.5 million
New York - $2,479,414 + 10.9% over $25 million and $3,264 +3.876% over $90k for NYC tax. Comes out to $5,295,189.60
However, they pay tax based on where the game is played. Slightly over half the games would be in New York if he stayed with the Yankees (81 home games + Subway series at Mets) and the rest would be in lower tax states (including all the Rays games with no income tax). With the Giants he would get 81 California + SF tax games and then all the away games against the Dodgers and Padres with California taxes. This should bring up the average a bit for the Giants and make the tax different to be pretty much nothing (it is all nothing anyhow when you're making $37.5 million lol).
They meant Judge Judy.
Do GMs tell each other their offers? Like SF publicized they would give the highest offer, but how do they know what the highest is? Trust Judge and his agent?
That would assume he prefers SF. He prob asks them to beat it.
We won't boo him.
Naw man, as a lifelong fan I literally can’t remember a single instance of fans booing a Giant. Our fan base just doesn’t really do that. SF fan rules - 1. Always root for the Giants, 2. Always root against the Dodgers, 3. Never do the wave.
Pretty sure Santiago Casilla got some boos in 2016, which was especially dumb because he was an amazing Giant and not even having that bad a year. Don’t know of any other than that though
Would your fans boo Marcell Ozuna?
I've always assumed he's going back to New Yo, but if it's not SF I'm good with anything but Los Ang
If only there were a less awkward way to shorten Los Angeles...
Pretty much the point I was making about San Francisco...
at least San Fran rhymes
I love how you managed to abbreviate all three cities lol
He is so great and he gets paid what he gets paid, but the back half of this contract is going to be so bad.
And frankly, I do not cate. Hal has so much fucking money, it doesn't even matter
Well, it does matter when it affects your payroll and your ability to give money to other players.
The thing is, it should not affect payroll and the actual ability to go to some huge payroll is absolutely not limiting to the Yankees when you look at revenue
There's a luxury tax. It does matter.
Everyone is calling this a leak. I think Passan just has everyone’s phone and offices bugged
Now I’m just imagining Passan as J Edgar Hoover
In a dress!
SF Giants: "8 years, $300 million and one penny."
Farhan: employ the Price is Right strategy
8 years at $37.5m sounds, not great. But fuck it, push it higher Giants.
8 @ 37.6
Don't break the bank now
Wow that extra 100k is enough to pay for a month worth of groceries in San Francisco!
When the NYC mf talks about cost of living:
Joke’s on you I live in CT… wait fuck
I mean, that was the comparison a few years ago when it got really bad, that SF was so expensive it dwarfed NYC in cost of living. When you're so expensive you outrank the measuring stick of excess, you know it's bad.
$37.5m and one penny!
After taxes in NY and security staff he will have about as much take home pay as I do. Which is negative.
The price of free agents is too damn high!
If you try to be smart about every FA signing, you're never going to sign the best players. With kids like Cabrera, Peraza, and Volpe coming up making league minimum, and with Donaldson off the books after this year, Yankees do have some room. Also with Britton and Chapman off the books for this year, Yankees can swing this without it being too much of a burden. Yeah the contract will be bad at the end, but considering what he's done for MLB and the Yankees, it'll still all have been worth it.
so what is the record?
He can join Don Mattingly as the two greatest Yankees to have never played in a World Series.
I want Judge but not for the amount this ends up being cause of a bidding war with Yankees. Not my money but still stupid. Give me correa, senga, and some other smaller pieces and im alright
You can fill a lot of spots with this money over the next 8 years.
Damn Daddy Yankees.
What about one year one billion
Yankees are screwed either way here. The contract will fucked their payroll hard in 5 years but they have to sign him no matter the cost.
Anyone but the Dodgers.
Their talent pool is an ocean.
Anything over 4-5 years is just asking for trouble imo.
Yeah but that’s something you have to eat knowing that there’s no way in hell he signs that
You can say the same about literally any 30+ yr old big time free agent
Judge is amazing but I just don’t see him having this production even in 3-4 years.
The dude just hit 62 HR, he's not going to have this production NEXT year
Year after hitting 62+:
Bonds: 73 > 46
McGwire: 70 > 65
Sosa: 66 > 63
McGwire: 65 > 32
Sosa: 64 > 49
Sosa: 63 > 50
Judge: 62 > ??
The highest home run total to then be bettered the following year was McGwire when he hit 58 in 1997 then 70 in 1998. Ruth is next up when he hit 54 followed by 59. McGwire (again) and Sosa are the only other 2 players to ever hit more than 50 home runs 1 year and then hit more the next. Griffey hit 56 in 2 consecutive years though.
I don’t know if it’s about the biggest contract to judge. After the way Yankees fans treated their team and other teams at their stadium, he may want out of New York.
#PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES PLEASE SAY YES
The Giants being used for leverage... sounds about right...
I need the Dodgers to offer $400 over 7.
"Record setting"? This lower than the records for both total value and average annual value. Am I missing something?
6 years, $245M + 2 additional years as manager for $30M.
I’d take that.