By - retroanduwu24
AL East got some arms
It only takes two cy young contenders and one of the league's best hitters to get a team that's in 3rd place and 8 GB
Blue Jays are plus one Cy Young pitcher, only lost Semien from the best offense in baseball 2021 - and he's struggling with the Rangers right now - and we are a distant third in our division. FML
Shut up shut up shut up
For a second I thought you were speaking of the Yankees but then I read third place. No doubts that the Jays will get hot soon here
Shit the bed for 3 months. Get absolutely red hot after the all star break, miss the playoffs by 2 games.
A story as old as time
If it makes you feel better, I still get a bad feeling in my stomach when I see the Baby Jays on the schedule. Scary meeting
That does make me feel better
AMERICAN LEAGUE BEAST and the Red sox too.
Pujols has had one bad inning in his ENTIRE CAREER and isn't on a single one of these lists, and it's ridiculous.
Pujols career, 2001 - May 14, 2022 - 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP
Pujols, May 14, 2022, 9th inning - 36.00 ERA, 4.00 WHIP
One bad inning over a stellar 22-year career, and the so-called "experts" take him out of the running? That's bullshit and that's sad.
Stat nerds ruining baseball smh
Who the hell has even *heard* of some of these stats anyways? “Innings pitched?”
What the fuck does that even mean????
It's biased hipster garbage, that's what it is.
I realize it's a joke, but undefined !=0. Dividing by 0 isn't a thing.
Didn't he get three outs though? His stat line shows one inning pitched. Even if he hadn't got any outs, his ERA and WHIP would be infinite.
Edit: Whoops, nevermind. I'm guessing you're talking about his pre pitching appearance stats. So 0/0 = indeterminate ERA/WHIP.
I believe they're talking about the 0.00 ERA and WHIP prior to his inning pitched
Yeah, exactly. It's a common joke made here that just isn't based on reality. ERA is just (earned runs / IP) * 9. If IP is 0 this formula is undefined, not 0.
Same with the joke about us all having 0 WAR. No, no we don't.
Edit: corrected below. If a pitcher actually pitches and gives up a run but no outs, the limit is infinity. But 0/0 is undefined.
It's been a while since I took calc in college, but IIRC 1/0 and 0/0 are two different animals. I believe the first is infinite, so if a pitcher gives up a run without recording an out to begin his career, he'll have an infinite ERA until he does record an out. 0/0 is an *indeterminate* form, so depending on context it could be anything. 0/0 could be 3.5, or pi, etc., depending on context.
Again, it's been a while. Maybe someone who knows more could clarify.
Yeah 0/0, 0^0, inf/inf, and a few others are special forms of indeterminate that are different from 1/0 or inf/0 or 0^inf. The limits for indeterminate forms just get super fucky depending on the exact equation.
The limit as x->0 of 1/x is infinity. So that's why a pitcher that gives up a run but no outs has an infinite ERA (technically they too have an undefined ERA, but we go with the limit because YOLO). But 0/0 is undefined. It's not 0, like I said.
Luis Gonzalez hit 57 homeruns one year. Anyone could’ve given up that homerun that Pujols did, ain’t no shame in that.
You made me just waste far too much time confirming that the 54 year old Luis Gonzalez who hit 57 home runs in 2001 is long retired, and not the same 26 year old Luis Gonzalez (with two career home runs) who homered off Pujols.
Recency bias is strong with these so called "experts".
Doesn't meet the innings qualifier, obviously.
Thats what I was wondering they seem to forget about the guy with a sub 1 era through 6 starts
It's 1.05, sir.
But that .670 whip is bonkers.
Shhhhhh let me get my futures bets on him at 30:1
Question is will you bet on him against the Cubs tonight
Probably lol. The cubs have a high K rate against righties. Although the wind out might hold me back.
Probably going to take the dbacks as well just bit worried it’s a trap can’t believe Cubs are favored against gallen
I don’t think he has enough innings to qualify as of yet. If he does there is no excuse. But this list has the clear Cy Young winner Nestor Cortez at 3rd so it’s clearly made by idiots.
sigh...if only we could help our pitchers with some runs
You'll take your 0-3 runs and you'll like it
Sugar Shane getting looks.
Well I look at him for an entirely different reason but he plays good too huh
Way too low on this list imo.
Is the other one Silver Medal Shane?
Jays have two pitchers on there.
With our explosive offense that must mean we are winning a ton of games.
Gotta swing at those first pitches more. And once Teoscar heats up 👀
JV has been worth every penny of that $25M. It's crazy what he's doing coming off TJ.
I'm really happy for him and Houston. I wish the Tigers had spent the money and brought him back to Detroit, especially since he's fresh off TJ and still healthy and meanwhile 4/5 of our rotation is injured.
You said “happy for Houston” and you weren’t downvoted to oblivion... what’s going on?!
How on earth can someone be morally ok with down voting a Detroit fan that's just sickening. It's like down voting a cancer victim.
💀 you didn't have to kill him dude
Hey can’t fault him for telling the truth
If it wasn't him, then it'd be my own team that did me in lol.
Yeah, I mean he's already dead anyway.
Hey! We were relevant for a little while a couple sports!
Detroit let JV and Max walk. They were both worth their extensions to the Nats and Astros.
Well JV was traded for a bunch of players that are either long gone or injured, but yeah I totally agree. Both won WS’s and Cy Youngs after their time with the Tigers.
Don’t forget procello
He was always going to bust his ass rehabbing so that he could come back as healthy as possible. The greatest pitcher of his era, in my opinion.
Isn't he like objectively not as good as Kershaw?
The different WARs have them fairly even, with Kershaw being better on a rate basis but having ~550 fewer innings pitched. History will look back on a big 4 of this era - Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer - and picking any one of them as the best is fair enough, although Scherzer is still a little behind in total value for now.
FWIW their order in total fWAR is Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer (The default Fangraphs leaderboard has Scherzer ahead of Greinke because it doesn't include batting WAR) while in bWAR it's Greinke, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer. The gaps between JV and Kershaw are 0.1 and 0.3 WAR respectively on the two sites, so very, very close.
That said, I'd give it to Kershaw too though, his peak was just ludicrous.
When I read this I was like no way greinke deserves to be in the group. Then I looked at his career and I legit forgot how good this guy was and how long he has been around. Guess that's what happens when you spend most of your career on not very good teams.
If he'd been left in longer in game 7 of the 2019 WS and the Astros had won it, he'd have a big playoff moment to point to as well, and he'd have a ring like the rest of them do (although in this hypothetical JV would have 2 and Max 0). Would probably have changed how people saw him a bit, he's a genuine all time great. That said, I do think he'll get into the HoF first ballot (all four of them will), so he's not crazily underrated or anything, just doesn't quite get as much credit as he deserves
Max can go ahead and inscribe "courtesy of SS" inside his ring.
"greatness" is entirely subjective
more career WAR than Kershaw (although he did start two seasons earlier, but it wouldn't shock me if Verlander finished ahead of Kershaw despite the age difference when all's said and done)
WAR has them neck and neck but Kershaw’s rate stats and advanced stats are all a step, small step, above JV.
ERA+. Kershaw is 25 points better
FIP. Kershaw is .65 better
WHIP. Kershaw is .126 better
And then H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 Kershaw has him beat in all of them, but not by a lot. But that’s probably skewed a little since JV is 5 years older and Kershaw will probably decline a bit if he continues to play. They’re both generational talents, and it’s not an apples to apples comparison. I think Kershaws peak years were a little higher than JV, but JV’s last quarter of his career is better than Kershaws will be, assuming he continues to play.
Also Kershaw has been in the NL while JV in the AL.
Yes, personally I think Kershaw is better, but they're close enough that it wouldn't shock me if in 20 years it ends up as Verlander being seen as the slightly better player.
Like I said, my opinion. I am also bias about this because \*see flair\*. I will admit that Kershaw didn't pop to mind first, but I think that Verlander had a larger impact on both franchises he has been a part of.
JV was able to bring out the best in his teammates and often times performed incredibly during the postseason. I also don't put as much stock into WAR because I am ignorant about it and it APPEARS to me that it is a rather subjective stat. It seems as if it is entirely reliant on a formula that looks at who would be a replacement that plays in the minors, right? I get that it helps to quantify the impact that someone might have on a given game, but this makes me question whether somebody could have an inflated WAR if the "replacement level" player in the system is not who a team would run with if a long-term injury occurred. I know that this sub will probably downvote me for it, but if asking about whether Kershaw is objectively better than Verlander, that's my (shitty) reasoning behind my opinion.
The WAR stat in a given time frame is a league metric. As in: you have to take into account every single player performance, from the star player on the Dodgers to the garbage time reliever for the Mariners who had a one week cup-of-coffee and allowed 6 runs over 2 innings all year. A player would not benefit from being part of a team with a weak minor league system, since WAR doesn’t take minor league presences or performances into account at all. Replacement level is tuned so that if you took a 26 man roster and filled it entirely with replacement players, that team would win roughly 47-48 games. Very few teams win only 47-48 games, so WAR is not a zero-sum game. Each team produces roughly 30-40 WAR on average, with the excellent teams producing more and the terrible teams producing less. The average major league regular (Starting lineup or starting rotation member) will produce about 2.0 WAR a season, but this varies. However, WAR isn’t directly correlated to team performance. There is a relationship, but the two do not directly correspond. The 2018 Baltimore Orioles, who finished with exactly 47 wins and therefore should have amassed exactly 0 WAR, finished with 13.2 according to Baseball Reference and 11.7 according to Fangraphs. WAR is a tremendous metric and an excellent shorthand and while I would not consider it the be all end all of baseball statistics, it’s the best we have right now, and I recommend using it.
Respect for sticking to your guns and not embracing WAR even though, against my intuition, it apparently favors Verlander over Kershaw because of an extra 550 innings pitched for the former.
Hopefully you get a better reply about WAR but this far down the thread you might not so I'll just point out that it isn't about the replacement in any particular farm system/team but an idealized and ostensibly available replacement for each position. Essentially, as I understand it, AAAA players who do well enough in the minors but not well enough in the majors to help the team.
If you made it this far, I'll admit that I was wrong about it being objectively true that Kershaw has been better.
Don't get me wrong, I embrace it in the sense that you can use it to quantify the quality of a player. But sometimes players can have more of an impact that is not quantifiable in that sense. Like, Comerica Park would be PACKED because he was pitching and that has to have an impact on the team that doesn't really play into it. Total homer bias, especially since I haven't watched Kershaw pitch in person, let alone LA, but I would take Verlander. I've enjoyed reading all of the opinions here discussing it though!
You’re still can bangers
That wasn't the only thing we were banging last night. ps hows your mom
The Zac Gallen snub is amazing considering he just out dueled Pablo Lopez in his last Miami start.
He doesn’t qualify for the ERA title yet so I’m guessing he just needs one more start (he starts tonight) and then he can qualify and would be on this list for sure. He doesn’t have as flashy strikeout numbers as some of the other pitchers tho I will say
Outs are outs baby!
So he needs at least 5.2 innings to qualify for today, but he will need another decent start after today to qualify for good
You know what is flashy? A 0.67 WHIP
If he keeps this up they will pretty much have to give him the Cy Young. I’m lowkey glad he didn’t pitch vs the Dodgers now cause that could have killed his ERA
Yeah they killed Mert and MadBum hopefully this isn't a start to a decline for them
Came here to say the zac gallen disrespek is real
Justin Verlander? More like Cy OLD!
^(He's really good.)
Kershaw is injured but has 30IP with 4-0, 1.80 ERA, .77 WHIP
Honestly gonsolin also has great stats and has been great for us. Probably just because he has less innings for both these guys but still. It’s way to early. If Kershaw comes back and pitches the same or gonsolin does and can catch up on the innings, they could easily both be considered.
Nice to see Musgrove command our staff
Can't wait for Tarik Skubal to be up there. Dude's been on a tear. Detroit just needs to surround him in bubble wrap so their entire rotation doesn't get the injury bug.
He should already be on there.
What is it now 4 or 5 starts without an earned run? And only one bad outing? He’s dealing
This is Miles Mikolas erasure
1.68 ERA good for a 1.7 rWAR
3rd in rWAR, 2nd in ERA, 6th in WHIP, 5th in IP
Not saying he should be in first, but easily top 5
Justice for the Lizard King
Yeah I don’t get this. Couldn’t MLB.com do a simple stat sort to figure this out? I’m not saying Rodon is bad because he’s obviously not but his ERA compared to the rest of them AND compared to Mikolas is ugly. With comparable WHIP among other things, why are we not seeing Mikolas on here?
To Rodón's credit he did only have the one start with 8 ER, otherwise 2 or less in his others FWIW
If you use fWAR or xFIP etc you don't see Mikolas in the top 10. It is all so subjective with pitching.
Nestor Cortes Jr. leads Verlander in ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA.
Gausman leads Verlander in all those stats except ERA.
Damn that’s some low tiggles
Tiggles+ is up though.
Its just a bad tiggle scoring environment.
ah nothing like some good ole tiggle talk amongst the boys
Their ERAs are 1.35 v 1.38 with JV pitching more innings. We're talking about .03 difference between guys who have pitched less than 50 innings...
Yeah, calling that anything but a wash is disingenuous.
Not crazy to assume that Verlander can maintain it while Nestor Cortes can't though. Verlander has a track record and Cortes doesn't. If this is in August, then sure, Cortes is probably the guy on track to be the cy young winner.
There’s a big name bias here yeah. Lopez has also been better than Burnes but they list him as number one
I don’t think it’s bias as much as it’s Verlander’s track record makes him more likely to sustain his elite numbers all season.
He also has a reputation as an innings-eater & while you wouldn’t expect him to go as deep in his post-TJ year, so far he *does* have more innings/start than the other two in the top three.
Which basically doesn’t matter at all as of now, but very likely could matter come the fall.
Yeah it’s bias on evaluation of the current season based on track record. Lopez and Nestor are new blood so they don’t get the same respect
I thought these were picks for who will win the award, not who would win the award if the season ended today.
Lopez got more first place votes than Burnes, but Burnes had enough 2nd, 3rd place etc votes to get him over the line.
Idk if I would say its big name bias though. I think it has more to do with the fact that Corbin is doing exactly what he did last year and what people expected he would do this year, and Pablo, while great last year, is overperforming where he was last year and people aren't as confident we wont see regression.
That damn [great lake] coastal bias gassing up Burnes
If there is one thing we know in the upper midwest, it's that our players definitely get more attention and love from the national media than the coastal teams
Verlander also leads by a mile in WHIP. It's not like Verlander being at the top of the list is some appalling decision, he has his own arguments. Plus there's also the whole narrative of him coming back from TJ, but I don't think narratives should have too much weight on voting.
> Verlander also leads by a mile in WHIP.
That's true, but that's pretty much the only thing he leads in. And his stats suggest he is massively overperforming, much more than Cortes or Gausman.
>Plus there's also the whole narrative of him coming back from TJ, but I don't think narratives should have too much weight on voting.
I'm biased, but I think a 36th round pick who had a 6.72 ERA before last season having a season like this is a much better narrative than "hall of fame pitcher recovers from injury really well."
Some stats may say Verlander is overperforming more than the other two but resume puts him more likely to still be in the race end of season than Cortes and Gausman
Yeah im in agreement here, feels like Verlander is only at the top cause hes well known, i dont think hes leading the race right now
Personally I'm not interpreting this as a "Who is leading" list, rather they polled people in the offices and asked for 5 potential CY Winners. Then they "ranked" based off commonality between those polled. I think it's just too early to say any one person is leading.
> And his stats suggest he is massively overperforming, much more than Cortes or Gausman.
I think this is fair. I don't have baseballsavant avaliable rn so I can't see, but Verlanders lower K-rate compared to Gausman and Cortes, as well as to his career average, could be cause for concern and lead to his regression. It's something that will need to be seen as the season continues.
As for narrative, I think dismissing Verlander as just another HOF pitcher recovering from TJ well is a bit disingenuous. The man is in his age 39 season. Afaik the only people that have won a Cy Young at that age or older are Gaylord Perry and Clemens. Cortes is definitely the underdog story, but Verlander is fighting against father time.
Plus Bradley Zimmer took him deep so that should instantly exclude him from any list.
Also if your arguments are relying on derivative stats of stats you already mention then that weakens your argument
Coming back from TJ is a great case for Comeback Player of the Year, not for Cy Young. Keep off the field stuff out of voting for the best pitcher in the league
That's why i said it SHOULDN'T matter. I simply acknowledged it because the people who make these sort of lists surely have their own biases and want to sell narratives
If you want to talk narrative then Cortes wins in a landslide.
What about WHIP/Wins/BAA/IP? You can cherry pick stats all day to make a point. He’s beating him by .03 in ERA in 5.2 less innings pitched. 120+ games left, these rankings mean nothing. Don’t get your feelings hurt lol
Gausman has an ERA over 1 higher. Verlander should be higher than him
But Verlander has 5 wins, Cortes only has 2!
/s but only sort of.
Logan Gilbert goes from pitcher of the month to not even being in the top 5. I know he's had a few meh outings but his ERA+ is still 151. that barely behind Verlander and ahead of Kevin Gausman. Good old East coast sports bias.
Had to scroll too far to find Logan, hes gonna end top 3 in voting or atleast should.
Kevin Gausman gave up a home run to Cal Raleigh. He should be DQed
Between those 2, I’m not sure who was more surprised on how that AB ended.
All the fans lol
No Connor Overton?
His savant page is very worrying
He’s a sinkerballer who is getting some insane BABIP luck. I’m mostly kidding
No no, your absolutely right. He has been SNUBBED
that’s our ace 🥺
He's not ace we deserve, but the ace we need
Dude has a 1.67 era and 1.8 WAR. Should definitely be on here but MLB.com doesn't even show him on the lists
Scrolled too far to see this. I understand he’s unproven, but all he’s done so far this season is dominate.
Obviously he would never qualify for the Cy young, but Josh Hader has been ridiculous so far.
Cortes has the best stats, unless it’s a prediction he’s getting hosed
Yankees tax, happened to Judge and Cole 😂
Judge yes, but when did it happen to Cole?
Its quite impressive to see Gausman grow into an ace from being a failed top prospect with the O's and middling journeyman starter.
Of these, I think the safest money is on Corbin. Unless deGrom comes back in time to throw enough innings but that sounds pretty doubtful.
Shane Mac leads all SP in K-BB% as well as SIERA , he is my sleeper pick for CY young
Close but I agree he probably is just outside the top 5. Needs to cut down on the walks and pitch count to get a little deeper into games. Also has had some bad innings. He will be there in the end he just needs to take another step forward soon. (Yes I am a Cub fan but I'm still salty we traded him, plus I've invested in Cease autograph cards and bet him for the Cy this year, so this isn't any crosstown hate)
Cease had great value on the betting markets. Might have to double dip
Not after his Yankees start, which was absurd. 4IP, 11K (FOR 12 OUTS?!?!?), but 6ER is just keep him out of these rankings.
Uhhhh, Johnny Cueto?
Fuckin bullshit list dude is untouchable
I live how Pablo Lopez got rocked yesterday, giving up 3 runs in 3 innings on 80+ pitches.... and still only has a 1.5 ERA. The guy's amazing.
Why is cortes 3 when his stats are better than 1 and 2?
I know, the MAR (mustache above replacement) should definitely put him over the top.
People probably think he's less likely to continue his dominance than the top 2.
Tall bias is killing the sport
Carlos Rodon over Mikolas and Kershaw?
Still some baseball left to play. How bout Zaidi though? Loses Gausman and gets Rodon? Man is on another level.
God I hope Rodon holds up. Would be terrible if injuries continued to derail his career
This is Catman erasure
This is Tony “Cat “ERA below 2” Man” Gonsolin erasure
I think we’re going to see something like 25 qualified starting pitchers finish this season with ERAs under 3.00 because 2022 MLB feels like 1968, the season in which the league OPS was under .650 to go along with a sub-.300 OBP. I would hate to face Verlander if I am a hitter, especially those who will be facing him the rest of this season. He’s got the great stuff but also knows how to pitch. 🔥🔥🔥🍿🍿🍿
Nasty Nestor is coming at you!
Attack of the Stache
I’ve been homering for Manoah since preseason - love to see him in the convo!
I mean Paul Blackburn is going to win it in the end anyway
Ex orioles at 2 and 3 in the AL.
Early enough where 1-2 really bad starts or a handful of so-so starts can knock one of these guys off the top-5 list.
How far down is Kershaw?
Not a yanks fan, but I’d love for Nasty Nestor to win the AL.
Skubal has a higher war than everyone in the AL list but Gausman. Skubal has a lower FIP than everyone on the AL list but Gausman.
Need a parental advisory every time Nestor gets on the mound.
He's been great, but he would have to do something insane as a relief pitcher to win the Cy Young.
He’d have to probably give up < 5 runs all year with 50+ saves
Sexy Shane needs to be higher
Might wanna rethink Scherzer after he pulled himself in the middle of a batter to go get an MRI
I guess this list is a fan vote (?), so we can cut everyone some slack, but Corbin Burnes is not the #1 candidate for the NL CY Young. Yes, he leads the NL in WHIP and SO, but Musgrove, Lopez and Kershaw have all been better.
Verlander also has Kate Upton.
He wins no matter what
Clearly not updated through last night
Nestor gonna get it. Sucks Whitlock isn’t listed
Surely that’s changed after Rodón got his ass lit by the Cards?
Aces get shelled sometimes? As long as he doesn’t continue getting shelled he deserves to be a shortlister.
Cortes has a lower ERA
Burnes is 13th in NL fWAR, but okay.
Too bad no one cares about fWAR
Oh damn. Good to know.
Max Sherzer over Tony Gonsolin.
Max Sherzer over Kershaw.
Verlander is like a fucking zombie. Just go the fuck away already