[Foolish Baseball] So much of what we call a "successful rebuild" is just winning the lottery on a Latin teenager. Where would the Jays be without Vlad, or the Padres without Tatis? The Braves drafted heavy on pitching, only to spend $450k combined on Acuña and Albies. A lot of dumb luck involved.

[Foolish Baseball] So much of what we call a "successful rebuild" is just winning the lottery on a Latin teenager. Where would the Jays be without Vlad, or the Padres without Tatis? The Braves drafted heavy on pitching, only to spend $450k combined on Acuña and Albies. A lot of dumb luck involved.


I like to think a successful rebuild is investing in your farm system over the course of 8 years and trading away all your best prospects and assets. No? Just me? Don't know where I got that Idea


Agreed, but you left out an important step: I think you need to trade away three extremely valuable assets in order to gain a single, aging, declining veteran.


I'm always hesitant to judge trades in any sport because I like to think that the GMs involved know more than me. But the Archer trade was the first one where I saw the pieces involved and audibly gasped not because of how massive it was but because I knew the Pirates lost big time on it.


I still lay awake at night thinking about embarrassing shit I did as a teenager. But also, I think about how the Deandre Hopkins/David Johnson trade wasn’t me in a Madden franchise just being a degenerate spammer/console reset GM. That trade is easily my top, instantly nonsensical, borderline sexually masochistic transaction across all my sports fandom. Texans really threw out the safe-word when they got in bed with the Cardinals and it probably got weird towards the end of the rendezvous Direct result: Cardinals currently are the top team in the league and the Texans currently have the hardest nipples in the known universe watching from afar


You can always count on BoB fucking up.


Oh boy did they fuck that one up


The trade that was so bad it made me question if BoB knew he was getting fired and just wanted to destroy the franchises near future before it happened


Rumor among houston writers is that not only did he know it, he was actively trying to get fired


You mean the rumor based on that bullshit book about New England?


That's a different time. That book is referencing his power struggles with former GM Rick Smith in around 2017 ish before Rick Smith stepped down as GM


Tbh is one is the one that is the most confusing trade. Like i don’t understand it even the tiniest bit. At least with the Pirates trade (although it was incredibly stupid without a shrewd of a doubt), they got better at the very moment. With the Texans trade, what was the plan? They were just a playoff team with a good roster, and traded one of the best receivers in sports for not even a first round pick and a average at best running back?


On a serious note, I was convinced they knew something about Nuk that would soon ban him/indefinitely suspend him from the league soon after he inked a long term mega deal. Like, maybe a Josh Gordon type situation that they could hand wave as irrelevant to the trade and a surprise to them as well. Basically say they were taking a calculated risk and figured Watson could throw to any good receiver, but a proven/potentially still dominant RB would only help him even more and improve other phases of play. Now I just use the theory of my last comment as my head-canon because it’s insane to even rationalize it as much as I just tried to lmao


They picked the wrong young superstar to trade away based on questionable morals, that’s for sure.


Maybe BoB is a tragic hero that pretended to hate someone he loved, sending them away in order to protect them from the toxic relationship 😭 Anyway, Nuk deserves everything he’s enjoying with the Cards after so much patience and all-time level play no matter who was hucking garbage at him. Overall, everyone involved got exactly what they deserved tbh


Except Texans fans.


They deserve it for being located/having a personal stake somewhere and rooting for that local team. What IDIOTS Clearly our flairs indicate we will never be upset by our sports team. Literally would never happen last night lol even basketball hasn’t struggled since opening day. Just W’s for us


Their nut job pastor that’s the de facto GM wanted him gone, that’s why the trade happened


My favorite anecdote about Major League general managers is that former Braves GM John Coppolella made the genuinely stupid Andrelton Simmons for Sean Newcomb trade on November 12th, 2015 and then made the unbelievably good Shelby Miller for Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte trade twenty six days later. They're all human beings who make some good decisions and some bad decisions. We all hope that ours make more of the former than the latter.


Those two trades are probably related though. He probably figured Dansby was the SS of the future so Simmons was expendable. And Newcomb obviously didn't turn out well, but he was a highly rated prospect at the time tbf.


That explanation doesn't make any sense because the Simmons trade was weeks earlier, so there was no guarantee that they would have Swanson. And while Newcomb was the 37th ranked prospect by Baseball America, he already had obvious command issues at that point. Coppolella made that deal because he was incompetent. Fortunately for him, Dave Stewart was an even worse general manager.


I mean I'm sure he had an idea going in that if he managed to trade Simmons then he would try to acquire Dansby, if he wasn't already in talks with Arizona.


Also worth noting that these “bad decisions” are almost always good decisions based on calculated risk. If you see a 70% chance of a really good outcome, and it turns out bad, that doesn’t retroactively make it a bad decision.


Nah, many trades are clearly dumb from the moment they're made. Everyone said that the Pirates were crazy for making the Archer trade. Everyone said the Diamondbacks were crazy for making the Shelby Miller trade. Everyone said the White Sox were crazy for making the James Shields trade. People imagine that GMs earn their positions through intelligence and achievement when the reality is that it's mostly connections. History has shown that many of them are grossly incompetent.


Part of the entire point of the analytics revolution was to up the quality of front offices by giving them actually useful goddamn data to base decisions on.


And then trade him back to where you got him from!


I mean there's always the option to just say fuck it, give up, and move back to St Louis


James Fucking Shields 😭


whats a farm system


Something George Orwell came up with I think.




Orioles definitely took the Underpants Gnome approach and missed a step somewhere.


The part you’re missing is you’re supposed to bring them up to the bigs and play them until they out-price your team’s budget, then you trade them for more prospects. It’s truly gut-wrenching and turns every season into “will prospect A and B live up to the hype” or will the team’s year be labeled as being a rebuild year?


The Orioles got fucked over by Duquette at the end of his tenure. Elias had to build the entire team up from nothing.


And, as part of that build from nothing, get us re-established down there with international talent. I don't think the Orioles have ever been real players in the IFA market. One of the first things he did, hire a real one in Koby Perez. We are getting there, but we still have a ways to go. We are also seeing those trades DD made, are not paying off in any real way. So as you said, there wasn't a lot to work with when he got here.


Dear God, I can't take a 5th good team in this division


Don't worry... someone will take a step backwards.


I think... 8 years is just too much. And what if you fuck it up? 8 becomes 16, 24... 4\~5 year cycle to analyse what you did good and what was bad might be the sweet spot.


Indians fan checking in


Not doing very much Guardian-ing.


We've got some pretty promising Latin teenagers.


Imagine if you guys had Lindor and Ramirez and Santana and Franmil on the same team.


But hey we got Rutsch!


I can vouch for that... The Os ( The Show 21 ) left me in the minors for 3 years even though I was raking at .350 and 35 HRs a season and then they traded me. They really got their tendencies down. So realistic.


Ah yes, I can't wait for the biopic on Duquetteball.


Maybe to an extent, but all those teams also hit on several other prospects who made them into a good team. The Braves aren't in the NLCS without Fried, Anderson, Riley, etc


This tweet also assumes that all teams invest into the international market equally when that's not the case. If someone is buying more lottery tickets than everybody else, chances are higher that they're going to win. There are several teams in the league that put a massive amount of investment into their scouting and their training infrastructure in places like the Dominican Republic so that they can get an edge in that market. Meanwhile, you have teams like the Orioles who, up until recently, didn't even believe in looking at IFAs. So yes, you can hit the lottery. But if teams like the Yankees or the Blue Jays are doing well when it comes to IFAs, it's because they're going out of their way to play in that market. The Blue Jays didn't *just* hit on Vladdy. They also beat the Yankees in signing Roberto Osuna, who looked like a superstar reliever before he turned out to be a piece of shit. They also took a shot at Eric Pardinho, who could have easily been the next Marcus Stroman for them if he hadn't spent so many years on the disabled list. These are just a couple of specific examples but they've signed dozens of these kids in recent years. Even now, while Vladdy was the breakout story in the MLB this year, Gabriel Moreno was the breakout story of the year in the minors. And the same way I had a hunch Moreno would rise up the way he did this year, I have a very strong feeling that 2022 and 2023 are going to be huge years for the Jays system with Orelvis Martinez and Manuel Beltre working their way through the pipeline. This is a team that has built a very thorough network of connections throughout that region and is spending tens of millions of dollars to get an edge. If it's working, it's not just because of dumb luck. --- **[Edit]** Here's a perfect example of what I'm talking about: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRaMY8KEl6s https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=691725 https://brobible.com/sports/article/who-is-enmanuel-beltre-baseball https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66CLWqXgAa4 This 13-year-old kid Enmanuel Beltre is considered by some people to be the best baseball prospect in the world for his age range. Looks like a mini-me of Juan Soto and is already drawing comparisons to Fernando Tatis Jr. He has an incredibly advanced feel for the plate and has amazing defense and range at shortstop for his age. Just look at his swing in that first YouTube video. It's art. Now, while this kid is already playing stateside and is likely gonna be one of those rare Dominican prospects that enters the league through the draft, my point is that if he *did* decide to come in via the international free agent market, the Blue Jays would have a massive advantage in signing him as a result of the work they've already done and the connections they already made when signing his older brother Manuel Beltre in January. So in that hypothetical scenario, you couldn't just call that luck. At the end of the day, that's all diligence and being proactive.


our team's greatest legacy is finding talents in the caribbean/latin america. most of our greatest players are homegrown players who we signed from the DR, PR or cuba due to the influence of our scout epy guerrero who worked for us in the 80s-90s bell, fernandez, delgado. and now vladdy we presume will continue that. and the jays have a much greater legacy of having had a lot of great dominicans if u add bautista, encarnacion, melky cabrera, juan guzman, jose reyes. guys we didnt draft but acquired after the fact. teoscar and vladdy look like this generation's joey and edwin. we also have gurriel too. jays love latin american talent.


You've also invested in Mexico, you got Roberto Osuna and now Kirk


Around the beginning of the year, 9 out of the top 10 prospects on the Yankees list, were from J2. Look at Houston right now, and you see being players on the International market is a fucking must. And it's what sucks with the Orioles. Sure, we are spending, but it is going to take forever until we see that pay off. Until those guys cycle through the ML team, we are still behind. I like to depress Oriole fans, by telling them if we were just average during that time, imagine what our farm would look like now? Sure, we are tops on FGs with 47-48 prospects, but being around the IFA market, and that total would be around 60.


True. The braves young talent is insane, from both the farm system and from outside it


Exactly. Where would we be without Gurriel Bo Teoscar Manoah Kirk Biggio Espinal Romano


Probably still 4th place in the East




this fucking division


Oh my god, the humanity.








Incredible haha accurate and painful




Without Tatis the Padres would be not in the playoffs


Thats not *inaccurate*


Might even be a sub .500 team.


Well yes, but yes


Hmmm i got something to tell you...


hes not wrong


Ok but the Angels got handed Trout and Ohtani for free. There’s more to it.


Neither are Latin


If only Trout was Latin. Could have been in the playoffs all these years 😔


El Pescado


Miguel Trucha


And his mate, the pitcher/slugger, Salvador del Valle.


Giancarlo Trout


It’s actually pez when you’re referring to an animal. It’s pescado when you’re referring to food Fun fact


Lol, bro thanks. I'm first generation American, speak Spanish everyday, and just learned something new. It makes sense: pescado cuando ya fue pescado


No hay problema! Vamos bravos!!


hombre pez bueno


Miguel Trout


Jose Ohtani






Adios, pelota!


Miguel Trucha


El Hombre de Pescado


That's just like your opinion, man


Trout required 25 or so other teams to draft someone else.


korean/japanese players when they first come over, always sign with the mariners/dodgers/angels. that's like their team's advantage


And look how well 2 of 3 of those teams are doing.


There's a lot more to it. This tweet is stupid. If it was really just "dumb luck" as it claims, the same FOs wouldn't do it repeatedly while others miss. Take Toronto for example. Their FO is lead by Mark Shapiro, who came from Cleveland. In Cleveland he helped rebuild the team after the mighty 90s squads. He got us back to being a playoff team and as far as the ALCS with savy trades and decent drafts etc. Antonetti took over and Shapiro moved to Toronto in 2015. He hired Ross Atkins as GM, from Cleveland, and started the process there. Now they're right in the mix, just in a brutal division. That's not just luck, it's clearly skill. The ability to analyze and evaluate potential players does involve some luck, but there's a lot more skill involved.


There’s also a lot of money involved. You might sign the players cheaply, but the scouting and development operation costs plenty.


I think the Padres are a great example of how winning the lottery on a Latino teenager alone doesn't make for a successful rebuild.


Yeah I was about to say. “Where the Padres would be without Tatis”? Buddy, look where we are WITH Tatis….


Sometimes I think God hates Padres and the Mets. What in the hell happen to those teams.


Pretty sure we’re going 60-0 next season not sure what you’re talking about


Vlad Guerrero Sr was a 9x All-Star and won an MVP. I could be wrong, but I’d imagine his son was pretty highly scouted.


Jays started scouting him at 12.


The Blue Jays have cornered the market on Jrs.... Vladdy, Bichette and Biggio.


Gurriel Jr too


Yes, the Blue Jays getting Vlad was hardly luck, they scouted the shit out of him and spent pretty much their entire international FA money to get him.


A lot of great baseball players have kids and the vast majority of them aren’t good at baseball. Also part of the point of this post is that scouting really doesn’t do much. It increases you chances of success by a bit but at the end of the day a lot of team success comes down to luck.


I mean Vladdy Jr got like $4M as signing bonus, I don't think we can call him a lottery.


Kevin Maitan and Michael Ynoa both got $4.2 million and flamed out. Signing any 16-year-old is a lottery ticket


Vlad and Tatis both have dads who could afford to give them the best trainers and instructors, outside of what an organization can only provide during the season. That factor alone makes both of them less of a lottery ticket.


Tatis actually talked about that in an interview, he said he wouldn't be here if he didn't have all the instructions he always had from the beginning from his father, his dad as a former MLB player himself he knew what it took to be an MLB player and also of course he always had all the equipment he needed. There's a reason his younger brother is already signed by the Chicago White Sox.


Mark Appel got $6.35 million out of college and hasn't even sniff the majors, there's guys in MLB that signed deals for more than $100 million and played terrible after signing, every signing just involve some risk.


I haven't heard the name Kevin Maitan in ages. That was the kid they were dubbing the next Derek Jeter, right? He was supposed to be as safe as you can get in the IFA Market.


Also investing in scouting and development isn't luck, you have teams developing a lot of crazy good players consistently while others struggle to come up with a couple of competent players. You can't say that Houston developing Framber Valdez (10K singing bonus), Luis Garcia (15K signing bonus), Jose Altuve (15K signing bonus), Christian Javier RoTY canditade (10K signing bonus); also developing young talent like Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw, Chas McCormick, Jose Siri, Jake Meyers. Dodgers also are so good at developing players, there's no coincidence that the better two teams in the last 5 years are the best ones at scouting and developing talent. Calling what they've done luck is just disrespectful to the scouts and development teams they have. You can hit the jackpot and fail to develop a highly talented player, Yankees hit the jackpot with Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez, also Andújar and others, but they just failed as organization to develop those players.


Lol it’s not luck there where like half the teams in the league scouting Vlad you think he get 4 million bonus if nobody else wants him


Except the Jays hedged their bets and didn't go all in on any one prospect or free agent. They waited until they had a core to build around. Not complicated to see why they deserve credit.


So much of the Jays rebuild was about rebuilding the organization and the way it develops talent, too. It’s not a coincidence that this Mark Shapiro-built team features every good major leaguer from our farm except maybe 2 in the last decade.


Vlad was signed under a different regime.


At age 16!


A level-headed take. So much of baseball hinges on the smallest decisions working or not working. Obviously good management *puts* you in a spot to benefit from things going your way, but so much depends on things luckily working out.


Baseball chaos theory. A butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing, and the Braves walk off games 1 and 2.


Can the butterfly flap its wings some more?


Now, *this* is the kind of flapping I can get behind.


Mothra is a Braves fan!


Not my proudest flap


Yes, now the Braves win a World Series in 2047.


The 2021 Blue Jays are a great example. Probably the two best seasons put up by free agents signed in the 2020-2021 offseason, were two one-year reclamation deals in Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien. Both of those guys could have been mediocre or worse and it would not have shocked a single person.


Meanwhile, Springer spends most of the season on the IL.


Like Josh fields for yordon


Or the Brady Aiken situation that landed us Bregman. Aiken didn’t like that the Astros were “only” willing to cough up $5M for his signing bonus so he didn’t sign, Astros get a comp pick for the 2015 draft which ended up being Bregman. Aiken never made it past A-ball and hasn’t played at all since 2018, meanwhile, Alex Bregman is Alex Bregman. THAT is luck.


And Arizona decides Dansby is better than Bregman.


And then trades him for Shelby Miller


Miller’s from my hometown, never been more happy to see an entitled turd fall apart.


Like us signing three rotation pieces for under half a million dollars


And things like good international scouting and analytics can increase your odds but at the end of the day going from a .001% chance to a .008% chance isn’t doing all that much


I used to be really interested in working for a major league team, and I would still likely accept an offer if one were made, but I've been put off some by the fact that so much of the work for a front office would be putting in long hours to try to help a billionaire's baseball team squeeze a few tenths of a percent extra win probability out of their games.


Honestly I feel like most corporate jobs, sports or not, are like that?


Yes - but in baseball you are expected to do so for less money because it’s a “dream job”


Depends on the position, but talking with someone with a PhD that a team hired, the pay isn't that much less.


You just described almost every job in the world.


Yup. I remember the story of Alex Anthopolous basically finding Vladdy by accident. He scouting another player and I think he heard someone crushing baseballs on another field and went to look and found out the kid was like 15 and just so happened to be Vladdy Sr's son. He blew the international budget on him that year.


This has to be an apocryphal story, right? There’s no way Vlad’s kid wasn’t already being scouted.


Nothing in that story suggests the Vladdy was completely unknown, just that was how the Jays GM came upon him.


I’m not completely sure how the scouting world is, but Vlad Jr was a top 20 international prospect, I guarantee every team was scouting him even if they hadn’t had the bonus pool to sign him.


> found out the kid was like 15 and just so happened to be Vladdy Sr's son. And that kid? Albert Einstein.


jays have a decades long connection to the DR. some of our greatest ever come from there. hard to believe aa didn't have vlad sr.'s kid on his radar


Shit that's every sport. Draft a rookie that would be a perfect fit for your team with a low paying contract, then invest in other parts of your team. If that rookie cornerstone doesn't work out then your whole team falls apart. Or if your big free agent signing decides they don't want to play anymore because they got paid, or if they get injured and have their career hampered by that injury. There are so many variables that can derail a teams success


The Astros are a perfect example. We drafted high several years in a row. Some of them worked out amazingly well and some of them were Mark Appell over Kris Bryant.


Is it really fair to call taking the kids of two MLB players “just winning the lottery on a Latin teenager”?


**Exactly**. This person somehow vaguely insulting everybody in what purports to be a mild, philosophical take.


Dodgers trading us Yordan for a ham sandwich


Wasn’t that done with the understanding that he wouldn’t have a position to play in the NL? Dodgers did the same thing with Calhoun who hasn’t panned out, but was moved for the same reason IIRC.


Dodgers needed relief in 2016. Houston needed young players. Yordan hadn’t played any baseball in the US when he was traded. Give a lot of credit to the Astros coaching and Yordan for turning out as great as he has.


Fields had a 2.61 ERA over 117.1 IP for y'all which is pretty good. This is just similar to the Bagwell/Andersen trade. Andersen worked out amazing for the Red Sox in 90 and they had traded someone blocked by Boggs for him. It just doesn't look good cause Bagwell turned into a HoFer


Context and coaching are why I try not to troll other teams when a lottery ticket (Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Muncy) turns out well. Sometimes players take longer or need different scenery to excel.


Yep, Astros traded a solid pitcher, Freddy Garcia, to the Mariners for a half season of Randy Johnson in 1998. Randy was *amazing* for the Astros even if we didn't get past the NLDS. Would it have been better if we had Freddy from 1999-2004/5? Probably, especially since some Mariners fans told me that's partially why they got Felix, but we thought Johnson would push us over the top *then*.


This is the correct way to be. It’s more nuanced than “lol gotcha”. Although with the Yordan deal I’m more likely to celebrate it because 1. The obvious bad blood between the teams and 2. Fields directly led to a World Series game win for us.


Dodgers and Astros front offices had a great relationship during those times. I always wondered whether it got ruined cause of the scandal or if they still have a working relationship.


The funny thing is I’m a massive Astros fan, but the Dodgers have always been my second favorite team. I spend a lot of time in LA for work and love Dodger Stadium. I also really appreciate the history of the team and how into it the fans are. Obviously things have gotten weird lately. I remember in ‘17 I joked it was a win/win for me. Oh how naïve I was lol. Wasn’t trolling either w my Yordan comment, just reiterating op’s point it’s all kind of a gamble. Obviously scouting and player development play a big role too, but you never know.


Calhoun was supposedly a can't miss hitter. I think if he'd gone to the Astros, or anyone halfway competent, he's probably be a borderline all-star.


He played outfield in Cuba and the Dodgers never got to see him in action outside of tryouts so it's really hard to say.


Its sad how signing latin players costs effectively nothing and rewards big and owners STILL want to lower that spending with an international draft.


An international draft just doesn’t make sense fundamentally unless the MLB is willing to put up the money to fund the academies run by the MLB orgs who are active in Latin America. Because if those orgs have no incentive to put money into developing relationships with players in Latin America, that money will dry up instantly.


Yeah, that’s the point. They don’t want to collectively spend that money and don’t care if it hurts the game.


Yup, so allowing teams like the Astros and Dodgers to reap the benefits of having strong infrastructure in those countries is perfectly fine with me. It allows players to get signed that would never have a chance of being discovered without those teams willing to find them at a young age and have a vested interest in their development.


Really, it just makes no sense at all, just give a look at the Astros, they signed Jose Altuve, Framber Valdez, Luis García and Christian Javier for a total amount of 50.000$, and they're trying to be cheaper it's just a nonsense.




He’s referring to owners in general, Jim crane is fine with spending money up to the tax


The tax is just the convenient PR excuse


Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, Alvarez, Brantley, Morton, McCullers, etc. etc. etc. All came from different places through different ways. This description fits more for the NBA because whether your pick landed LeBron or Darko absolutely will make or destroy the next decade of your team. Even the NFL to lesser extent for QBs. But just look at the Angels. Mike Trout and Ohtani and still cant even make playoffs. Baseball is much more of a team game.


Exactly. Who would have expected some random kid from Athens who played in a league compared to your local YMCA would become one of the greats? Baseball you need a million things to go right


Or, in the Padres’ case, trading your Twinkie to a work buddy in exchange for a lottery ticket only to later find that it was a winner


I mean the Astros traded Josh Fields for Yordan and without Yordan they’re probably at home


They also got Framber Valdez, Luis García and Christian Javier for a total of $35K.


IIRC, Altuve had a tryout and their scout said dont show up you’re too small and he showed up anyway


Yup his father convinced him to show up the next day, because Al Pedrique scouting director at the moment wasn't there when he was evaluated, he told him that Pedrique liked players like him and sent him the next day where Pedrique evaluated him and signed him.


Imagine how many Altuves just never showed up the next day. I bet like, at least five.


Yes, and Valdez because he was too old. Island of Misfit Toys market inefficiency.


This one our FO deserves some credit IMO they made a conscious effort to target "advanced" aged amateur pitchers as their prices plummet. Though obviously this many panning out this quickly was very unlikely.


It's a numbers game, and you guys had the numbers. Whitley should have been an ace by now, same with Appel. They didn't all pan out. But when you have enough of them, you can afford the misses.


And it appears that Urquidy might not have been paid a bonus at all out of Mexico.


Altuve was signed for $15k


The Padres won that trade. But lost the ones that cost them Anthony Rizzo, Trea Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Max Fried, Cal Quantril, Ty France, Franmil Reyes, and Manuel Margot.


Kind of like that time Foolish Baseball traded his Butterfingers for a pack of Fig Newtons.


If it were solely luck, explain the orioles


Bad luck


This is an insult to scouts


I kinda felt like the quote gave too much credit to luck. Vlad was signed for $3.9M


Yeah the dude was wearing jays gear at like 13. He was pretty hyped at the time. It was a big deal when we signed him.


> or the Padres without Tatis? We’ll find out for most of next year.


It’s disrespectful to call it dumb luck. A lot of talented people make a ball club run.


For individual players this has a point, but it’s kind of ridiculous to boil it down like that. It’s about consistent success - the Braves might be in the WS and they don’t have Acuña at all.


Ridiculously stupid outlook imo. No one player makes a baseball team. Those guys are good but also have a solid core around them, hence credit for their rebuilds.


It seems the Rays have a tremendous amount of dumb luck.


Yeah man, look at the Giants, they won on the lottery of latin teenagers and won their division.


Rebuilds are easy just sign a whole new rotation of mediocre cast-offs from other teams in FA and have them all have career years. I don't get why more teams don't just do this.


Vlad and Tatis are sons of very wealthy MLBers.


IKR? It's kind of silly, these aren't just random "latin teenagers". One is the son of a literal hall of famer and the other is the son of a guy that hit 2 grand slams in one inning. Perhaps these guys had a bit of a pedigree?


Is not luck when the teams constantly do it. The astros have rebuild a whole pitching staff off Latin teenagers. Framber, Javier, Uquidy, Garcia were all sign for almost nothing.


The minor league development team is also a major factor that is not mentioned in this tweet. It is just as important as scouting, maybe more so, in creating a successful team. It's the old nature vs nurture argument.


This is dumb. One player does not a baseball team make. Its important sure but this isnt the NBA


Yeah but that's the thing, you get a lot of prospects and a small part of them make it. You have more prospects than there are spots on your team because you know there is dumb luck involved


Being good at drafting and developing isn’t dumb luck, that’s incredibly offensive


I have some home team bias here but from where I’m sitting a single player doesn’t appear to impact overall team performance.




See Also: "Washington Nationals, 2019, Juan Soto."