Felix being third on this list for highest WAR through 30, and also the worst in this list for WAR after 30 is sure something


His last 3 years were rough. Era over 6


1800 innings from his age 19-29 seasons will do wonders to an arm.


i wonder if his mechanics were off. his delivery is really good for ignoring pain imo


> David Wright > Felix Hernandez >Troy Tulowitski Now I'm sad again


This is when I watch baseball the most (Mets fan here)


Pedroia is pretty sad too. Something something manny machado >:(


Sox with middle infield of what ifs of Nomar and Pedey


What’s the what if with Nomar?


I think the phrase you're searching for is fuck Manny Machado.


Just here to remind Sox fans that the slide is nowhere near as bad as you all make it seem. But there’s something about whining and New England sports fans that pairs so well together…I almost like it 🤣


He slides over the bag with the cleat up. Like how the slew foot in hockey doesn’t look bad you know what you’re doing with that slide


ha ha it's so funny our guy ruined a Hall of Fame career, you guys are such whiners roflmao What a loser.


Fuck Manny Machode-o


It’s so unfair that David won’t make the Hall :( he’s a Hall of Famer, damnit. His body just couldn’t hold it all in. My favorite player in any sport ever


Yes, absolutely. I'll never root for the Mets, but David Wright played like he loved and respected the game. He's a great player!! But from what I've seen, and heard he's a great human who happened to be very good at sports sportsball.


David Wright is straight up one of the nicest players I’ve ever met. This was around 2016 or 2017 but, I was around 15 I went to Spring Training with my dad who is a huge Mets fan and met David. My dad who is a huge Mets fan is from Norfolk which is where David is from so my dad had a friend who is friends with Michael Cuddyer who give David Wright a call to come meet us after the game and David went above and beyond. He talked to me and my Dad for almost an hour and gave me a signed baseball. I’ve met a lot of players before but I have never met another player who went out of their way like he did.


2 of those guys got to play in the playoffs.


Felix pitched in a playoff game like a few months ago Sort of


Trailed off due to death. That's something I never expected to see typed anywhere.


“He was doing quite well for himself, then he kinda just tailed off.” “Oh really? What happened?” “He died.”


I mean it’s true for Thurman Munson. Had he not died he’d probably be in the HoF rn. which makes the Kirby Puckett comparison/argument for why he should be in very interesting. He should be Imo, even without the fact his career was tragically cut short.


I don't disagree. I think Ray Chapman was on a Hall of Fame path as well. It's just not something I ever expected to see typed out in that specific way.


Gooden is crazy when you consider he had 42.2 rWAR by age 28, and 30.7 rWAR by age 24. All time great talent, potential to be in discussion as one of the pitching GOATs, and drug use took it all away.


In his last full season, 2016, Pedroia still put up 5.4 bWAR. He’s probably one of the more tragic cases because his downfall was pure body sacrifice, and his game, early on, was probably the best candidate to age gracefully well in to his late thirties, which he’s in currently. A small guy who never struck out, played stellar defense, and was a perennial 200 hit candidate, solid in the playoffs.


I know he’s the ultimate example of a polarizing figure on here but I’ve always thought if Pedroia wasn’t injury prone + the Machado incident he would be where Jose Altuve is now.


He was a great example of why baseball is the best- 5’6” 160 or whatever, and a top 5 or 10 player in the game.


Obligatory Fuck the Sox, but healthy Pedey was fun to watch. Dude knew his way around the bag, and was usually pretty clutch in the postseason.


Tim Lincecum had a 25.5 WAR through his first 5 years in the league (age 23 to 27). The next 5 years he amassed 1.9 WAR total then was out of MLB. Used to love watching him.


And he racked up 2 Cy Young Awards, 3 World Series and 2 No Hitters in that period. One of my absolute favorites and one of *the* best pitchers in recent memory, but sadly also one with a very short peak. Can't say he didn't make that peak count though given everything he accomplished.


I watched 2010 game 5 highlights today


Some guys have violent deliveries that are just ticking time bombs. Him and Arrieta were perfect examples of that, it was just a matter of when


The Pedroia and Wright ones are so painful in recent memory. All of the sudden they just couldn’t play anymore


I THINK you mean physically and not that they lost the skill set. Because both of them suffered pretty catastrophic injuries (Wright fracturing his back and getting spinal stenosis and Pedroia getting Machado’d).


I do mean physically, yes. Basically referring to the fact it wasn’t injuries piling up and causing a decline, it was instead an abrupt drop off to basically not even playing due to those injuries.


"all of a sudden" is a weird way to say "because of Manny Machado" for Pedroia


Perhaps “abruptly” or something similar better describes it, but yeah, neither really describes why his career came to such an immediate stop (other than some like 7 game stints after attempting to rehabs)


wait for the padres fans to get here and tell you it’s fine and we’re overreacting and there’s no way that directly led to the end of his career machado should not be playing in the MLB


You're overreacting


He ended Pedroia's career and has tried to injure other players on numerous occasions


Dirty as fuck players that end careers shouldn’t be playing it’s that simple


The Machado slide is pretty tame. There are dozens of better examples of people trying to injure others, hot take here, but I don’t think this is one of them


They love to disprove the Pedroia slide with shitty reasoning and then completely turn a blind eye to all the other shit he's done. Kicking first basemen's ankles, numerous dirty slides, throwing a fucking bat at someone. He's just a real piece of shit.


Fuck Manny Machado


Fuck Manny Machado


Longo's still active but he had 48.1 WAR at age 30, he's only gained 10 WAR since.


yeah but that puts him in the upper echelon of both parts of this list. He's still got a decent chance of cobbling together a borderline case.


I honestly hope he gets in considering he's my favorite player


Rolen getting in could help his case a bit I’d think if he can get to 2000 hits.


IMO two or three healthy and productive seasons should give him a good chance


A good year next year gets him pretty close


He’s dropping off the first ballot, y’all are crazy


A 60 WAR 3B puts him on the borderline


If you believe Scott Rolen is a hall of famer, which 76% of voters did this year, you at least have to *consider* Longoria as a potential HoF player. I think he’s on the outside looking in, but considering his issues the past few years have been availability not ability (he doesn’t get enough credit as one of the beneficiaries of the 2021 giants fountain of youth) there’s a chance a few good years can get him over the hump


Torre got in as a manager. I remember a few years back, Will Ferrell made the case for Vada Pinson as a Hall of Famer on Dan Patrick's show based on counting stats but I'm not entirely sure if I see him as a Hall of Famer. But he does make a point.


Yeah, I included Torre anyway because he did not get in as a player. Pinson is a tough sell to both old-school voters and the sabermetrics crowd, I think. Career 110 wRC+ and 54.2 bWAR/47.3 fWAR, which is well short of the CF standard. Never won an MVP and finished top-5 only once. Was named an All Star in just two years. Never won a World Series. He was really excellent from age 20-26 and then meh the rest of the way.


I never knew Torre won an MVP till recently looking up his bbref page. I thought he was WAY more of a Journeyman player than he was.


Johan deserved the 2005 Cy Young and that would have made it 3 in a row. [https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards\_2005.shtml#all\_AL\_CYA\_voting](https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2005.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting)


I think that had Johan won 3 CYA in a row and otherwise had the exact same career, he'd have been inducted on the first ballot via the (highly informal!) Sandy Koufax Rule\* recognizing a very high peak amidst a very short prime.Moreover, you can use a bevy of advanced metrics to show the similarities between Santana and Koufax. While I don't think Johan was actually as good or as dominant as Sandy Koufax, the comparison is close enough as it is and 3 straight CYA would have transformed Johan's narrative. Instead he's becoming a sort of forgotten ace though I do suspect he'll be "rediscovered" and eventually enshrined via the VC as his contemporaries and people who grew up watching him move into positions of power. tl;dr: 3 CYA would have made Johan a HOF. \*I look forward to Jake deGrom's eventual induction through a combination of the Koufax Rule and the Jim Rice Rule (vibes/fame/TEH FEAR) and, to be clear, I would very much support it. I'm a "Big Hall" guy.


I like a big hall but DeGrom has only pitched four full seasons to date


You're welcome for Johan. We will always be grateful for Carlos Gomez and Philip Humber


Here I was enjoying my night and you had to remind me of Carlos Gomez.


That’s crazy, it shouldn’t have been close.


Thurman Munson belongs in the Hall dammit. great bat, great glove, NY fame, magnum moustache


And a hell of a name


Doesn’t fit because he’s rightfully in the Hall, but the first guy I always think of is Ken Griffey Jr. 76.2 bWAR through his age 30 season. 7.6 after.


Same with Pujols, 86.6 rWAR in his first stint with the Cards, 15.1 afterwards, mostly from injury, although he was getting hammered by the positional adjustment


it seems unfair to have munson in here, his plane literally fell off the map


Pedey 😔


Fuck Manny Machado


So say we all.


Nah he’s earned the captain’s C


Ha-Seong Kim better


can yall stop being obnoxious and let us hate him in peace?


Felix is the poster boy for this stat. Sadge.


Injuries are cruel. Also goes to show you just how much risk there is in signing 30 year old stars to 10 year deals.


Nah historically there have been countless 40 year old shortstops worth $30m+ per year


It's true, I literally can't count them


Half of these guys should be in anyway. Wes Ferrell, Allen, Munson, Saberhagen, Santana...


Really did Johan dirty with that 2.4% of the vote and immediately off the ballot.


He's a guy I'm really hoping the Vet Committee comes through for. He deserves it. Joe Nathan too, but I think thats definitely gonna depend on what happens with Wagner. Both deserve it.


Juan Gonzalez sure seemed like he was headed to Cooperstown for a while back in the day


Thurman Munson's inclusion on this list seems a little macabre. Charlie Keller is an interesting case study. He put up his 3 best seasons by fWAR in 1941-43 in his age 24-26 seasons, went into the service for most of the 1944 and '45 seasons, had one more good year in 1946 at the age of 29, and then hurt his back and didn't play more than half a season in his six remaining seasons in his league. What do we chalk his sudden decline up to? Age? Injury? Losing time to the war? Facing stiffer competition once the war was over? All of the above? Who knows.


Wait.... Chuck Knoblauch?? Am I the only one astonished by this?


A whopping 8.7 bWAR in 97, sandwiched by seasons of 6.7 and 6.8 bWAR. That's about half his career bWAR.




I remember the yips. I *don't* remember him having more bWAR than Garciaparra or Pedroia.


César Cedeño would’ve been in the conversation for greatest of all time if he hadn’t fallen off after his incident in 74 or 75, he was still a good player but his numbers prior to that were amazing combined with his defense and the Astro-Dome suppressing his offensive out put. Leo Durocher already commented that he was better than Willie Mays and if he would’ve had a full career to his full potential I think that would’ve been a serious discussion. I believe Dick Allen is a hall of famer, watching him come to Shea with the Phillies and Cards and than watching him in Yankee Stadium and Later Shea again with the Sox I can tell you he was the real deal, his career slowed down and he didn’t hit the career numbers I expected but I think he’s still a hall of famer. Dwight Gooden is someone I believe that would have had more HOF consideration if between 90-93 he didn’t have low run support, yes he was not the Gooden of the 80’s but from 90-93 he was still a decent pitcher and not the one that fell off the face of the earth in 94. I realize we don’t value wins like we once did but if Gooden would’ve gotten over 200 wins I believe he’d have more consideration. Sudden Sam McDowell and Roy Oswalt especially were pitchers I was high on especially Oswalt because of the way his career started.


The only reason David Wright fell off is because he hurt his back carrying the Mets for nearly a decade.


I was surprised Dave Stieb didn't make the list, looks like he just missed with 46 WAR at age 30 and 10.3 after.


Straw, Doc, and Wright make me so sad.


Curt Flood had 38.6 WAR through age 30, then had another 3.8 the following year. Was that enough for the Hall? Maybe, if he aged particularly well. But that chance was taken away from him.


Yes! We need to talk about Curt Flood more!


Yes, HBO did a documentary about him, but why hasn't there been a biopic on Curt Flood?


He didn’t do himself any favors. He certainly missed the 1970 season due to his reserve clause lawsuit, but he had an opportunity to play with the Senators under Ted Williams in 1971. He didn’t play well, and it was obvious that he didn’t keep himself in playing shape and was drinking heavily (to be fair, it’s somewhat understandable that he had a negative attitude in his circumstances). https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Curt-Flood/


The issue is that it basically destroyed his life. If I remember right, he left the Senators because he couldn’t take it anymore, not because he was booted from the team. MLB tried to tear him down and they succeeded.


Dude, I get what you’re saying, but MLB destroyed him intentionally. Not to mention the racism. There’s only so much shit a person can take. I think he belongs in the HOF simply because he took the bullet for every future MLB player. He deserves that much.


> César Cedeño > Roy Oswalt Bummer. Cedeño would have been an interesting first Astro to have in the Hall of Fame.


> Cedeño would have been an interesting first Astro to have in the Hall of Fame. Four All-Star games and 5 Gold Gloves, and nearly 1100 hits by 25, no ASGs or Gold Gloves after that, and fewer than 1000 hits over the next 10 seasons. He meets the "by 30" criteria and then some.


Really sad the Wizard lost his magic after 30.


Should have grabbed those battery wires again. He's a first-ballot hall of famer of my heart.


3rd and 4th greatest Astros: [http://hallofstats.com/franchise/hou#oswalro01](http://hallofstats.com/franchise/hou#oswalro01) Altuve will probably get there by next year.


Josh Donaldson had 1 MVP, 2 Silver Sluggers and 2 top 5 MVP seasons before 30.


Andrew McCutchen 37.4 bWAR before 30 and 9.6 since. His age 29 season was a trainwreck, so it's even more stark when you go 22-28 and 29-present... 37.7 before and 9.3 since. Still happy to have him back.


Huston Street, but closers don't get a lot of WAR.


I didn't realize Chuck Knoblauch was so good.


He was amazing for the putrid mid ‘90s Twins. After they won the WS his rookie year & Kirby was forced into retirement, Knobby was the only bright spot for a few years.


If only there were something the players could eat or inject to extend their careers or slow their aging


I was doing alright until I saw Wright 🥺


Felix Hernandez should be in the HOF


I've found the (roughly) 50-WAR-in-a-decade test to be useful. If someone can do that, it means they were playing at an all-star level for a decade of sustained performance. So that gets you a bunch of these guys who sure seem like hall of famers: Dick Allen, King Felix, Johan Santana. Scott Rolen did that from 1997 to 2006, 53.6 bWAR. Then he did six more seasons averaging 2.8 WAR. To me, it's not all that important whether these other guys stuck around for another half-dozen season of roughly league average performance or not, but that's the difference between 50-something and 70 WAR so is seen as important in hall consideration.


Oh, Pedey, what might have been :(


What should've been


I had a Chuck Knoblauch poster as a kid. Said Blauchbuster.


Grady Sizemore? Also: everybody? I cringe every time writers say some MVP caliber player with two years in the league is destined for the hall.


Grady sustained his first major injury before/during his age 26 season, so he just didn't have the time to accumulate pre age 30 WAR. He averaged 6 bWAR per year from age 22-25. If he's maintained that pace he'd have gotten close to 50 by his 30th birthday


Im pretty supportive of guys with high peaks who lost their career to death or significant injury like Pedroia, Munson, Wright. Should be treated like Addie Joss and Ross Youngs (although I think Youngs is a reach)


felix 😔




Oh Felix..... :((((


Tulo was so much fun to watch in his prime!


Fuck Manny Machado


My L4-L5 disc




Just keep Chase Utley away from him, it's easy. EDIT: uh oh


> if xander's career follows the same trajectory as pedroia Getting a freak, ~~intentional~~ injury is not a 'trajectory'. If you're too afraid to sign a player because of the possibility of a freak injury you'll never sign a player for more than a season.




> My point is that this Red Sox ownership - the ownership with the most rings in baseball > I'm sure that they look at all the success they've had with this philosophy and believe it to be a winning strategy - regardless of how much guys like you complain on the internet. >It takes a lot of compromise on both sides for the Red Sox to go to a huge long deal like that, and that's not something I ever would've expected Xander to do. Oh, you're one of those. Owners are the best and the players suck. Rah rah. Henry must contract out his cordwaining to Willy Wonka cause you guys think his boot tastes absolutely *scrumptious*.


I’m don’t think Xander’s career will follow the same trajectory unless he gets into a fight with a certain teammate.


You know about insurance, right?


fuck [Manny Machado](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbAYcXPhIUE)


Ryan Howard definitely


It’s interesting how few steroid-era guys are on that list. There are just as many players (7) that began their careers in the 2000s as the 70s, 80s, and 90s combined.


What about Ryan Braun? And to a lesser extent Justin Upton. Both of those guys I thought were sure bets for the hall of fame after their first couple seasons.


Ryan Braun had 35.9 bWAR through his age 30 season, and accumulated 11.2 bWAR after Justin Upton had 34.8 bWAR through his age 30 season, and accumulated -2.4 bWAR after


Here’s the next question. Which active players will one day join this list


[Bobby Grich 46.9 and 23.8 are still not good enough somehow.](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grichbo01.shtml)


Ted Williams was pushing for Mel Harder to get in the hall right up to the end.


Robbie Cano?


That's two-time-suspended-Robbie Canó.


Doc and Straw should have been HOFers, but…


Scrolled long enough to get pissed about not seeing andruw jones. Literally the only reason he isn’t is cause his 30s we’re poor.


Yeah, came to say Tulo. :(


Bro Chase Utley is the poster-child of this. (42.2 bWAR thru 30). Coming off a 9 bWAR season and half a decade of 7+ bWAR seasons, he only cracked 4 WAR one more time, the following season (5.8) in only 115 Games.


Can’t wait to tell my kids about the bizarre few years when Brandon Webb and Johan Santana were the best pitchers in baseball


ryan howard


never mind… revisited his bref page…


Starlin castro was quietly on pace for 3000 hits


I know Griffey is in the hall, but he will forever be a “what if” to me if he had stayed healthy or was able to maintain. I think 90% of his WAR was through age 30. I guess that’s kind of the Felix problem for being a teenaged phenom, your 30’s are already well past your prime :(


Need to add Pujols and jis Angle's years He'll still be HOF but damn those years were rough


Ryan Howard. ROY, then MVP, top 5 MVP votes the next 3 years, two more years top 10 MVP. Then torn ACL and poof, career over.


Howard put up some silly power numbers and probably helped the guys in front of him get extra pitches to hit, but his defense was not good and there were some other serious sluggers at 1B at the same time. His WAR totals are really low for a guy that could smash 40+ HR and drive in 140+ runs any year. The story about him and his family was really sad: https://www.inquirer.com/philly/sports/phillies/The_family_legal_fight_over_Ryan_Howards_finances.html


Damn Tim Lincecum really burnt out before he was 30?! I was shocked not to see him on the list. 15 of his 19 career WAR comes from his back to back Cy Young seasons. Truly a flash in the pan.


I think Allen and Munson deserve to be in. Sherry Magee also has a good case if the veterans committee ever considers him.


I think David Wright and Félix Hernández could be elected by the veteran's committee eventually. Both had really good peaks but trailed off too soon because of injuries. Both were also well liked around the league and by fans, which I think is the tipping factor with players like them.


I’ll never get over Dustin Pedroia. Fuckin tragedy man.


I’d still say a couple of these guys deserve to be in.


Not sure falling off is the correct way to say what happened to Thurman Munson


Steve Garvey was a lock for the HOF once upon a time. His stats still merit enshrinement in these days of watered down inductions. His transgressions of infidelity seem tame compared to the atrocities seen in the past 25 years. Hopefully some day he'll get another look.


I’m surprised Don Mattingly isn’t on this list. Not sure on the specifics but he had a great first half of his career and his numbers just fell during the second half of his career. He’s my favorite Yankee so I’d like to see him in the Hall but I’m not counting on it happening.


Carlos Delgado kinda fits this imo. If I remember correctly I think he had a bit over 30war through 30 but only like 5-10war after.


Not a Yankee fan. WHY THE HELL ISNT JOE TORRE IN THE HALL OF FAME ALREADY?!?!? It makes no sense, especially post-Santo, who was a very good player and beloved franchise icon/broadcaster, which put together, made him an obvious HOF. Joe Torre was Hall of Very Good as a player (see above). And his managerial success makes him an obvious HOF. Get it done, baseball. I really, really hate saying nice things about a Yankee icon. But (gah!) Joe deserves the honor.


Joe Torre was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2014.


Well shit, I got deked by the OP saying none of those guys were in. My bad.


Wes Feller, Joe Torre, Dick Allen, Felix Hernandez is my ballot. Ferrell was 30s Ohtani. Joe Torre was Hall of Very Good as a player and then won a bunch of titles as a manger. He should be in, it’s the hall of FAME. Dick Allen isn’t in because he was a **dick** and scared white sports writers. King Felix doesn’t have ‘traditional’ numbers but traditional numbers for pitchers HAVE TO come down or no one is ever getting in again. He was massively important and very good on the field, which is the criteria for the hall of FAME. Honorable Mentions to Vern Stephens, who’d have been a bigger star in a different era; ditto Vada Pinson. Pedroia, Saberhagen, Santana, and Wright needed better injury luck/health. Cocaine is a hell of a drug: no telling how it ends for Gooden and Strawberry without drugs.


Brandon Webb accumulated 33.2 bWAR through his first 6 years in the league (age 24-29). He put up a 143 ERA+ in 1300+ innings pitched. He won a Cy Young and finished 2nd in his final three full seasons. He pitched 4 innings in his 7th season, and then his career was done. He doesn't make this list, but I think he might be one of the great "what if" stories in MLB history.


What about Hanley


Dale Murphy? What do his numbers look like before and after age 30?


Madison bumgardner


Thurman Munson had a very good reason for falling off…also he played until ‘79