T O P
AutoModerator

Please take the time to read our policy about [trolls](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/u7833q/just_because_you_disagree_with_someone_does_not/) and the [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * ***Please* keep it civil.** Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review. * ***Don't* post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. **Don't forget about our discord server, as well!** https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*


themimeofthemollies

Here’s the issue: should Russian aggression be rewarded with negotiations of trading land for peace? Absof*ckinglutely not!! “Aggression should never be rewarded with negotiations for land in return for peace.” https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/yzi1z9/putin_is_betting_ukraine_runs_out_of/ix05hrt/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 Everyone knows you can’t trust Putin. Isn’t negotiating with Putin too much like negotiating with Hitler?


w47n34113n

it would be pointless anyway. Russia got Crimea in 2014, now they're back to take the whole country.


MalcolmLinair

Again, just like Hitler. "Peace in out time" ring any bells?


themimeofthemollies

Totally pointless: negotiating with Putin is futile. Excellent article here explaining why: https://www.reddit.com/r/IntlScholars/comments/yzvkcm/the_case_against_negotiations_with_russia/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf


AlbaTross579

As someone with a background in ABA, I can certainly say that positively reinforcing behaviour such as invading another country is a bad thing, so capitulation of any kind is not something Ukraine should ever consider doing, and screw the pundits who are pushing for that. You don't actually have to have studied ABA though to know that if you reward someone for doing something, they're more likely to do that thing again in the future though. That much is common sense. If Ukraine rewards Russia with territory, who's to say they won't ever come back for more? Who's to say they will never attack anyone else? No, they need to learn that evil does not prosper long-term. Thankfully this war has been expensive for Russia, and has resulted in heavy losses in terms of personnel and equipment on their part. Now they just have to end up with nothing to show for it, and that will send the message that unprovoked war is all-cost and no reward. As for Putin, here's hoping he also loses big and does not gain from this.


themimeofthemollies

Putin is losing big; there is no way he can gain from his barbaric and foolish invasion now. Arguably the amount of military spending it’s taken to counter Russia this far as they implode and self-destruct has been quite cheap: “"US spending of 5.6% of its defense budget to destroy nearly half of Russia’s conventional military capability seems like an absolutely incredible investment." https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/yzuv8x/us_spending_of_56_of_its_defense_budget_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf


weedful_things

Especially when the aggressor is losing.


ThereIsNoGame

Yes, this is the real problem and this is where there is a genuine dichotomy. There are those who desire Ukraine is liberated, this of course implies peace. Then there are those who serve Putin, directly or indirectly, and demand peace, and demand Ukraine pays for it by surrendering their land and capitulating to Putin. But history shows us that the latter is no peace, dictators do not stop, they must be stopped.


pickypawz

> “Aggression should never be rewarded with negotiations for land in return for peace.” I’ll jut keep coming behind you and loving this comment. Plus also, we all know putin’s word isn’t worth fuck all. It’s not even worth a plug nickle. Well most of us know that by now, I’m surprised everyone doesn’t.


themimeofthemollies

Thanks for the enthusiasm for this idea, because not trading land for peace is essential to global stability. Aggressors must never expect to gain land after unprovoked invasion violating sovereignty, because it sets a very dangerous precedent: ““If the war ends with Putin comfortably in power and Russia in possession of a fifth of Ukraine, then Beijing will draw the lesson that aggression works,” Bret Stephens writes,” tweets Radek Sikorski” https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/vdnqis/if_the_war_ends_with_putin_comfortably_in_power/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf And negotiating with Putin is the definition of futility; here’s a great explanation of why: https://www.reddit.com/r/IntlScholars/comments/yzvkcm/the_case_against_negotiations_with_russia/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf


pickypawz

Oh I don’t need any convincing, not about either of them. Putin’s a dirty, slimy weasel who has proved he will just slime his way out of anything. However he has shown Xi what not to do. If you read my past comments on Xi, I’ve said a lot. His country is imploding from within right now, the Chinese people are actually even rioting. However, he doesn’t have his thumb quite firmly enough on them yet, that’s coming. I think he’s deliberately tanking his economy to move to a ‘Planned Economy’ so that they can be as self-reliant as possible. He needs his country as self-reliant as possible, so that no one can use sanctions against him, so that the West cannot affect his behaviour, or control it, when it comes time to take over Taiwan. I also think he wants his people dependent on him, anyone have ideas around this? The US has banned the sale of advanced chips to China, but Xi needs them. How can he get them? Germany stopped the sale of the chip factory to China, Canada has ordered Chinese companies to divest themselves of stock in our mines…where can he get the chips from, he needs them for his country. Where can he get them? He can get them from Taiwan of course. He has to try. Xi was just offered the MRNA vaccine for his people again, and again he refused. Why? He’s shuttering mega cities, over and over and over again, businesses are going under daily, maybe even by the thousands. And with the real estate crash, people are losing all their hard-earned cash. I don’t know if you’ve been watching what’s been going on there, but it would blow your mind. Even Chinese people who are experiencing it can’t believe what they’re up against. But I believe things are going to continue to get worse. He needs his country situated just right, and they’re not there yet.. Also, Xi cleared his cabinet now, he got rid of the other faction, it’s all his own ‘yes men’ in power with him now. Now he’s in the same echo chamber that putin’s in. We absolutely cannot give in, I could be crazy, but I think things are about to get a lot worse. I don’t believe any of them like each other, but to overcome the West, I wouldn’t put it past some of the players to join together. We already know Iran has been helping Russia, now I hear Russia is just going to make their own Iranian drones. How will they do that? Who’s helping them? We cannot back down. We’re on that edge of the sword, and if we stray just a bit… Edited to add an ‘r,’ China isn’t a county, ‘enough’, and ‘when it comes time to take over Taiwan. I also think he wants his people dependent on him, anyone have ideas around this?’


themimeofthemollies

Smart points here: we simply must persevere in fighting for freedom in Ukraine. I hope you’re wrong things may get worse, but there are serious causes for concern. Yes, Iran is really helping Russia with drones; Ponomarenko calls this alliance a clear threat to global democracy: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/z0cjm8/like_weve_said_the_minskmoscowtehran_axis_has/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf But I think you’re right on target about Xi. Semiconductors make the world go around, and Xi seems all too likely to make a move against Taiwan. Xi is watching all too closely to see how the world responds to Putin, because he’s waiting and biding his time until… Until what? Would Xi really attack Taiwan as brazenly as Putin attacked Ukraine? How the world unites to defend freedom in Ukraine will have huge reverberations for future geostability and for democracy itself.


pickypawz

Remember I said Xi once again refused an mRNA vaccine? China is recording deaths from Covid, they have thousands of people huddled together for testing, and same with when you’re isolated—if you weren’t sick, you would be after. [Beijing facing, ‘most severe Covid test,’](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63700291.amp) People are recording things like the mother with depression who threw herself out of her apartment building balcony, and her daughter on the ground beside her, screaming and wailing at the death of her mother, and others pleading to be let out to comfort her. There are barriers up for miles in every direction, people can’t get medical help for their loved ones (infants to elderly), they are screaming out of their sky rise apartment buildings every night, it’s chilling. And the dabai won’t let them through, many times kicking and savagely beating them. It’s just horrible to witness. People ordered back into their dwellings *immediately* after an earthquake, because Covid is worse than aftershocks. 🙄 By allowing the real estate sector to take invested money to start new construction, instead of finishing the building the money was for, by allowing corruption, Xi has allowed China to be built like a toy house you might find in a dollar store. Sky rises have massive sheets of siding that fall down in the wind, rebar that can be bent and broken, rocks you can dig out of the side of high-rise apartments, stairs that fall right through…but apartments, buildings, bridges, dams, roads, overpasses, you name it, they are all made substandard, and they’re all ticking time bombs. There’s even concern that the 3 Gorges dam might fail due to shoddy construction, because if it’s rampant everywhere else, why wouldn’t it be there as well? By allowing corruption, the only way left for the builders to make any money at all, has been to work very fast, substitute cheaper, or even incorrect materials, cut corners everywhere they can. The videos you can see on YouTube would just give you absolute chills. And yet, there’s still more, lots more. Oh and did I forget to mention that N Korea was enlisted to sew uniforms for Russia? After I heard that, a few days later I heard about a million uniforms going missing. Did they go missing, or did they even exist?[Missing Uniforms ](https://novayagazeta.eu/amp/articles/2022/10/02/where-did-they-disappear-to-russian-local-pm-says-1-5-mln-military-uniforms-are-missing-news) You ask if Xi would really try to take over Taiwan. It wouldn’t be the stupidest thing the CCP ever did. And remember the promises about Hong Kong? Remember what really happened? As far as I know, that city is a shadow of its former glory, and I wonder what happened to all the protesters? Did you see the commotion from the little pinks when China didn’t actually do anything when Pelosi visited Taiwan? After they basically said they would? Oh man they threw fits all over China, they looked like toddlers. So the little pinks will still be trying to exert pressure on Xi to take over Taiwan. We know about the militarized islands, we know about the drones, about the tone China takes when talking about Taiwan, especially with regards to anyone trying to stand in their way. That’s what I meant about the vacuum…now there’s no one to tell him it’s a bad idea. Because, like putin, *he removed everyone.* And yes, I agree with your last statement. **Because it will not end with Ukraine.**


themimeofthemollies

Right on target, u/pickypaws, passionately and persuasively argued; so many fine points. China situation is tragic indeed, the population traumatized by lockdowns and Xi using covid and the excuse for profound authoritarian control of dvery single citizen’s freedom of movement. Ghastly: as bad as Orwell’s 1984 (if not even worse). And Hong Kong with those awesome protestors seems all but forgotten, making me mourn for their courage and their losses. Real estate catastrophic evil in China: you said it all better than I can. And Xi being surrounded by yes men really bodes poorly for any future restraint or humanity on Xi’s policies. Reminds me of this amazing truth from Pyotr Cywinski, Director of the Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum: “If you don’t die for Kyiv now, you’ll have to die for Gdansk later.” Interview here: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineLongRead/comments/tvl6zs/auschwitz_museum_director_if_you_dont_die_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf As true as this has proven to be about Hitler and about Putin, I wonder how true it may be about Xi. Just change the names of the cities, and the problem may be identical regarding Xi. The world may have to stand up to stop Xi from the same kind of devastating aggression Putin has chosen. Because if there’s one thing we should learn finally: dictators will not stop until they are stopped. Kasparov reminds us about dictators here: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/yy571e/if_you_think_supporting_ukraine_is_a_sacrifice/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Xi is no different. So yes, sadly we agree: whatever happens in Ukraine is not the end. Xi poses a serious threat to world peace.


pickypawz

If you were to watch China Insights latest video on YouTube, they talk about how Xi is taking greater steps to implement changes for a planned economy. If you’re interested, this is from that video; > On October 31st, 2022, China's Ministry of Housing and Construction and Ministry of Civil Affairs issued a joint notice requesting each city & region to select three to five communities to start a pilot project of building "a complete community." The plan is to implement the idea nationwide in two years' time. It’s to construct "large packages" of essential services, including communal canteens. Previously, we reported that the Chinese government has been expanding supply and distribution cooperatives throughout the country. These are all signs that the planned economy version 2.0 is starting up in China after the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party ended. It showed that the Communist Party at that time wanted not only to implement a system of full and unrestricted public ownership in order to control the political and economic life of the entire society but also to impose a communal lifestyle, forcing its way into the private sphere and controlling the decisions of individual life.” I think this actually marks the end of this most recent China we have all known. I think that Xi needs to make it so that sanctions cannot hurt China, so that when he begins to take over Taiwan, the West will not be able to control, influence, or hurt China. I’ve been wondering over and over why he hasn’t been worried about the effects of lockdowns on China, both to his bottom line, but also to his people, and I think ‘to prepare them for war’ is the answer. I’m beginning to wonder if he will soon be retrofitting factories so they will be able to make parts for war equipment, machines, making guns, what have you. It’s not the less-educated population from the 70’s, but Xi has essentially made dissent impossible in China. I think it’s getting a lot harder to leave, as well. At least with your money, anyway. And with all the overseas police stations China has set up, they just need to bring your family to the table in China to threaten you with, so you’ll come back.


pickypawz

That’s a good interview, and with regards to putin, I think we normally call it ‘small dog syndrome.’ And yes, I definitely agree with Kasparov.


themimeofthemollies

Excellent Fareed Zakaria interview relevant to this urgent issue of aggressive dictators: “Is Beijing ready to attempt an invasion of Taiwan?” “My conversation with The NewYorker’s Dexter Filkins, whose reporting in this week's issue explores why US–China tensions over Taiwan are so dangerous” https://twitter.com/FareedZakaria/status/1594408485378195462?s=20&t=8RYDqgO6y_6LgG8sxQrXZw


pickypawz

Lol I’ll just edit this for the third time. 😂 Oh man, I wish so much that this took place say yesterday, because of the unexpected results of the election, and also because of all the protests and fighting going on within China right now. It’s crazy to see so much dissent, people are even being bold enough to chant for Xi Jin-ping to step down. Say what? Dissent in China is never permitted. But it’s happening in several places at the same time. Seems like the CCP made a tactical error when they decided to broadcast the Qatar football game, and Chinese citizens got a glimpse of life outside of China, that people are carrying on with life and enjoying themselves, mask free. And I already said this somewhere else, but it was in *Qatar,* a non-Western country, with a lot of non-whites in the stages. I think if everyone had been white, they could have told themselves they were being fooled, *but it wasn’t,* and now they’re furious at everything they’ve had to endure, and the deaths, while the rest of the world has carried on. I think deaths from Covid are one thing, those are expected and allowable, but deaths specifically because of the lockdowns are terribly hard to swallow. When you see a building on fire, but so barricaded and completely locked down that firetrucks cannot get close, or even in range for water to reach the fire, and to hear that there were three kids in that fire, that all doors were locked, oh man that has people fired up, and beside themselves with anger. But anyway, did you see their election results? I wonder how big of a hand China had in influencing those results? And what will happen if the Taiwanese government wants to roll over and play dead while China blockades or invades? That would be interesting. I think we need to keep our fingers crossed. Was it Anthony Blinken who said that he thinks an invasion would happen really soon? I’m with him. I’m not sure how the uprisings in China would affect things though, and I haven’t checked the news yet today.


Putinloses46

You have it figured out too!!


duffmanhb

Be honest... Think realistically... What's the alternative? What's a realistic solution here. Russia just goes home? Leaves Ukraine alone? Why would they do that? They can just sit at their border and forever bomb Ukraine until there is nothing left. Sometimes the big dog on the block is simply going to get what they want. It's not "fair", but that's just the reality of things.


WillBryantSC

This is an incredibly uninformed take. "They can just sit at their border and forever bomb Ukraine until there is nothing left" That didn't work out for Gaza. Or Syria. Or Egypt.


duffmanhb

This is Russia, not some tiny countries. Especially not when the region at the border, donbas, allies with them. There is no such thing as a Russian defeat. They can continue this indefinitely. Our generals and state dept have talked about this a lot. This isn’t just a matter of some internet strangers opinion. Everyone pretty much admits there is no such thing as a defeat for Russia short of marching into Moscow and forcing a surrender, which obviously isn’t possible.


Dabat1

Ah, yes, the well know undefeatable Russian supermen who... Well, actually, lose military conflicts and go away all the time. In my fairly short lifetime I can think of the First Georgian War, the First Chechen War, three out of four of their major actions in Syria, and that's just off the top of my head.


duffmanhb

You can’t defeat a military unless you absolutely crush them. If Ukraine can’t go March into Moscow, their military can’t be defeated. They are at ukraines border and can send endless barrages until the end of time until the end of time.


Dabat1

Yeah, no. After forcing the Russians out Ukraine wont wait for even an instant before pressing that article 5 button. And if Ukraine, somehow, doesn't make it in to NATO then the sanctions on Russia will simply remain. Because the West is out to prove a point and Russia was the state opposed to them which stuck its neck out first. That not even getting into "the only way to beat an army is to crush them" nonsense. Which I really have no idea where you got that from. It wasn't history.


duffmanhb

It literally is history. The Germans didn’t end the war because they got defeated, they got crushed and taken over. Japan too. When a country borders another country and they are more powerful they continue forever until they are taken over. Russia borders Ukraine and will forever be able to fight for that border. There is no scenario where Russia just says they are taking too many losses and go home. Instead they just fall back, regroup, and meanwhile bomb the fuck out of Ukraine. Since Russia views Ukraine as a core security interest, they’ll do this forever But maybe you know more than American generals who make these claims. You sure you don’t work for a defense contractor?


WillBryantSC

You talk as though Ukraine has no military to speak of. And your supposed rule doesnt apply to Ireland either now does it? And please provide a citation to the generals you are misinterpreting or twisting out of context.


FreedomPaws

A military defeat that's the alternative and that's what Ukraine has been and is working on. However far they can get, that's of course unknown but realistically with continued support and so long as Ukrainians want to, they can reach the border. But even if they can't, they sure have enough going for them that the libertarians will continue to happen. They are not at a standstill. If there becomes a standstill and Ukrainians don't want to fight anymore, then that will be the end. Either way, when it's over, whether it joins NATO or not other countries will guarantee its peace and stability at the border. I even remember Italy making a statement about that a while back. Weird but good none the less. And even if not Italy, there will be some sort of deal about the border. Edit - I tried to Google the Italy thing and that I think i was wrong about. Google showed some other stuff Italy was doing but it wasn't about long term peace. One thing I saw is Italy will help demine after. https://good-time-invest.com/blog/italy-joined-the-post-war-demining-of-ukraine/ Here is an article about post war protection for Ukraine. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/09/13/7146717/


[deleted]

[удалено]


duffmanhb

They can't fully lose... That's the reality. No one likes that this is the reality, but it is. Since Russia has a direct border with them, and are fully protected within their own border. Russia can run this war on FOREVER if they want... And since Ukraine is considered a key national security interest, they will keep this going on forever. No matter how well Ukraine does, doesn't change the reality of the playing field.


immibis

Yes. If peace is so important to Russia, it can go home at any time.


duffmanhb

Okay but that’s not what I’m asking. Peace isn’t so important to Russia. I’m asking how you realistically think this can end.


immibis

Russia goes home or everyone else makes Russia go home. With luck, the Russian "Federation" (empire) implodes and its constituent states become free.


duffmanhb

So we are just going to keep doing this forever until Russia implodes? And if it doesn’t then we got ourselves another endless war? Because Russia isn’t just going to go home like nothing happened. They border Ukraine and ave full protection inside their borders. And since it’s not like sanctions will be released if they just leave it alone, there is no reason for them to not endlessly engage and bomb Ukraine from a safe distance


immibis

Russia can end the war at any time. It can do this while it still has enough people left, or after it sacrifices them all.


duffmanhb

Okay so a forever war then. Do you guys work as defense contractors for the pentagon? You’re literally saying that the solution is tax payers basically pay for another forever war until Russia just can’t stand any longer? God this sub is trash.


immibis

Russia already chose that option. The question is what are you going to do about it: Let them win, or don't let them win? If you choose option A, will you also choose option A in the next war, and the next, and the next? What is the acceptable amount of people who can be genocided before it's a bad thing?


duffmanhb

Wait Russia chose that option? So Russia is forcing us to fund this war forever with my tax dollars? Do I have a say in any of this? And it’s not binary. After Ukraine Russia has nowhere else to go. They are surrounded by nato. There isn’t any more places to expand. Hell and getting the Donbas isn’t even much of a win to begin with because it still comes with international humiliation of how weak they are, and crippling sanctions.


Swingonthechandelier

I am pro-peace. However it is my opinion that nothing short of military defeat and collapse on ruzzias behalf will actually bring anything resembling peace to the steppe. Even that is not a given, however that is a topic for another discussion. Si vi pacem, parabellum.


gmc98765

Russia's defeat on the battlefield is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. Even if Ukraine can drive the Russian forces from every last square metre of Ukrainian territory, that won't prevent Russia from launching Iskanders from 1000 km away, it isn't going to prevent Russia from having fire control over the Kerch strait (so the Azov coast will essentially remain off-limits to civil shipping), it isn't going to bring back the people deported to Russia, and it isn't going to pay reparations. A war can end in two ways. Either both sides choose to stop fighting, or one side simply becomes incapable of continuing the fight. In WW2, Germany simply became incapable of fighting; every last square metre of its territory ended up occupied by its enemies. Japan opted to stop fighting (well, other than that guy who held out on Guam until 1972). This definitely isn't going to end with Russia simply being incapable of fighting, in the sense that they keep throwing men and materiel at the front until they no longer have anything left at home. And I doubt it will end with Ukraine being in that position either. It became clear that Russia couldn't take the entire country back in March, and their military has been heavily degraded while Ukraine has received a steady influx of hardware.


MosesZD

I remember that story about the Japanese soldier! I was 11 when he came out of hiding. It was on the news. First thing I thought was there had been a Gilligan's Island episode kind of like that... [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0588094/](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0588094/) Since Ukraine is unlikely to invade Russia, eventually, Putin, or his successor, will have to come to the table. Much like the Central Powers had to do at the end of WWI. Though, I don't discount a DMZ such as exists between (real) Korea and the unlawful Republic of North Korea created by the Soviets.


CptJericho

Yeah, I have the same bad feeling that even after reclaiming all of their territory that the Ukrainians will continue to be bombed by the Ruzi's until they collapse economically or the Ukrainians march into Moscow.


duffmanhb

I've learned in this subreddit, most people are 100% entirely emotionally driven, and have no idea of what a realistic outcome looks like. They'll just say, "It's over when Russia just packs up and goes home!" Like what does that even mean, how does that look, and how is that even possible? Russia just go home, 300km east, and then what? They just sulk and admit they've been a bad boy? I don't think anyone has really thought through what their emotional desires even look like in a realistic sense. Like okay, why would Russia go home? What's in it for them? Nothing? Okay, well they'll just sit at the border and support the endless civil war between the east and west, and if they want, just keep lobbing drones and missiles at them. It would just go on forever. Even generals and state department people are saying they don't see an exit here. That this will just be an endless stalemate pushing back and forth. Unless Putin is killed, which is something we shouldn't be betting the entirety on this on, this simply wont end.


FreedomPaws

A military defeat either entirely or if it becomes a standstill and Ukrainians choose to stop fighting.


duffmanhb

A military defeat isn’t possible. They are bordering Ukraine and can retreat and regroup until the end of time.


FreedomPaws

And that's why a military defeat is the answer - bc they always can come back and just take more. You aren't using that logic correctly. You are basically advocating for them to give up and then get re invaded. They are working on a military defeat up to whatever they can get whether that's at the border or even if not. After that, there will be a guarantee from others to protect the borders. This will happen regardless whether its giving Russia all it wants now or not. So obviously Ukraine will take back as much as they can and then work on that peace after. Russia if left unchecked yes would want to keep invading Ukraine and next Moldova. Russia was close to/inciting fear in Moldova back around may that they were going to invade. The only reason that stopped is because Russia got bogged down. The answer to the question u have is yes: military defeat. Also what right now we see happening is Russia is on the verge of the begging stages of falling. Not that it will, but this is definitely in the direction it's going. So Ukraine is capitalizing on that with their military defeat. Its basically like saying kick them while they are weak. It's about taking any advantages along the way regarding weakening Russia that will make future aggression unlikely bc it takes time to get back the momentum they lost. And in that time, its also possible that coupled with a weaker, more troubled Russia, there is a chance for Russia to change. It's a very small chance but it's better than nothing. To also sum it up: this is Ukraine's decision what they do with their country. It's clear that right now there are people trapped in occupied zones and Ukraine has the upper hand and will work on freeing what it can - until it can't. That's pretty much all you need to know.


duffmanhb

Well a military defeat isn’t possible. It can’t happen. A military defeat requires going into Moscow and completely destroying them. However Russia has been defeated in every other way. There is no reason to believe they would get Donbas then go to Ukraine then Moldova, a NATO nation. So there really isn’t an answer. If Russian defeat is impossible may as well find a solution and force them to stick to it. After a cease fire, Ukraine can be massively reenforced and fortified beyond belief to ensure Russia can’t return. Or… just fight an endless war. And maybe you’re fine with saying “this is just up to Ukraine” but this is also being done with American money. If we are finding it, we should have a say.


rocketeer8015

That’s incorrect. A military defeat also happens if one side loses the will to fight. For example like the US did in Vietnam, or the soviets did in Afghanistan. A military defeat on the soil of Ukraine will mean the end of putin, one way or another. His successor will use putin as a scapegoat for everything, towards his own people he will be made responsible for the defeat of their forces, towards the outside world he will be made responsible for the unlawful attack on their neighbour. What you miss is that this isn’t a ideological war which has a deep conviction behind it. It was a attack of opportunity. They thought they could quickly and easily take their neighbour and smooth over the diplomatic protest with minor problems. Now that it has become obvious that this would turn into a perpetual war … they are looking for a way out already. No country or people in the history of our species has ever committed to a perpetual war. It’s just not sustainable, wasn’t sustainable 2000 years ago, certainly isn’t sustainable today with modern weapons. The sanctions alone will ensure Russia stops the war within years, they lack crucial elements to continue being a technological advanced country(microchips, planes and replacement parts of them etc) and its unrealistic to acquire the means to develop their own given that their economy was the size of Italy’s… **before** the war.


duffmanhb

The USA wasn’t bordering Vietnam with full security behind its border. This can go on forever. And yes it is a highly ideological war. Reddit isn’t a good place to get anything outside of a biased echo chamber. 75% of Russians still support the war and view getting the Donbas as essential to their national security. That’s how they view it. If you don’t agree with their assesment well argue it with them because they believe it’s a core state interest to create that buffer with NATO. And yes they are looking for a way out. But none of those ways out is just go home and admit defeat.


FreedomPaws

I did a quick Google search and found this from September. This addresses post war security issues. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/09/13/7146717/


duffmanhb

Ukraine can’t join nato in the middle of a fight. They could give Russia land then join nato as part of the agreement. But you’ll never be able to push Russia out. That border will forever be contested - forever. There is no defeating Russia.


Routine_Slice_4194

Russia is being defeated right now. They will be forced out of Ukraine. Then Ukraine can join NATO.


duffmanhb

That’s not realistic. They are at ukraines border. They’ll bomb it to hell non stop. They can’t get into NATO while at war.


FreedomPaws

I already addressed this. And so what u are also saying is just for Ukraine to give up. Lol. I can't explain it any clearer than I did.


duffmanhb

No. Russia is already punished like hell, and embarrassed on the world stage. Ukraine can give the Donbas and in return join nato and forever become protected. There is no ideal situation. That’s just the reality of fighting Russia. They won’t get the optimal most preferred outcome. This is reality.


Cielle

> Russia just go home, 300km east, and then what? They just sulk and admit they've been a bad boy? Yes. There’s no “then what”. They lose and they cope with that fact. Same as every other war they’ve lost in the last hundred years. > Like okay, why would Russia go home? What's in it for them? Nothing? They stop losing their money and their lives for zero gain. That’s not nothing. If “not dying” isn’t enough, when they stop being dicks they might even get to trade freely with the West again.


duffmanhb

This isn’t realistic. They aren’t just going to go home and feel bad. Like assuming they’ll do that and having that be your expectation just proves that this will last forever. They aren’t just going to go home and say sorry and sit around waiting for sanctions to start being lifted. Like you clearly haven’t thought a realistic scenario through at all have you? You genuinely think Ukraine can keep fighting until eventually Russia just gives up? I can’t intellectually take you serious


Cielle

You’ve rotted your brain browsing /r/conspiracy, dude. The facts on the ground are simple: Russia keeps escalating their war effort, and yet they keep being forced to retreat anyway. There’s no secret master plan behind it. The simple reality is that Russia *isn’t that strong*. You’ve bought into a myth that Russia is some kind of unstoppable, unrelenting superpower. They aren’t. They are a poor country that has long since lost their post-WW2 empire. They will break, just like they did in Afghanistan under *far* more favorable circumstances.


duffmanhb

You're looking at things WAY too binary. Holy shit. It's not either they are weak and useless or strong and unstoppable. Obviously Russia is underperforming against US technology and doing embarrassingly bad. That doesn't mean, by default, they are now useless and ineffective. They still have tons of munitions and the convenience to hide behind their border and forever continue border skirmishes. That's what makes it different than Afghanistan. In Ukraine, they are able to safely, and around the clock, launch attacks from behind their border.


Cielle

> That's what makes it different than Afghanistan. In Ukraine, they are able to safely, and around the clock, launch attacks from behind their border. Maybe you should actually look at a map from that era before you make these claims. Throughout the Soviet-Afghan war, the two countries shared a border. They had the same ability to “hide behind the border and launch attacks” then as they do now. It still didn’t stop the Soviets from losing.


duffmanhb

Was Afghanistan perceived as a critical security threat to USSR national security, or was it just a territory they were trying to win over to make a point to the American's who were engaging in a proxy with it?


Doctor_Vampire

Sorry, the Japan thing isn't entirely true. At least one army kept fighting in 1946 even though they were radio'd the surrender agreement. Whole units surrended in the 50's. And there were 'lone warriors' that surrended in the 60's. You might be thinking of Hiro Onoda, who wasn't alone - he surrended with 3 other guys in 1974....and there was another dude separate to those 4 who also surrended in 1974.


BE_MORE_DOG

Which part of the Japan thing are you saying is incorrect?


Doctor_Vampire

"Japan opted to stop fighting (well, other than that guy." The Japanese government opted to surrender but the army didn't always listen to the government. I think it's an important clarification because we have a similar situation: a totalitarian state that has lost but has no problem sending its own people to their death.


Ziodade

Blip blop, I'm the funny guy at parties that correct you: si vis pacem, para bellum.


Swingonthechandelier

You and i could possibly be friends, sir


Routine_Slice_4194

If you want peace, prepare for war.


toastar-phone

> Si vi pacem, parabellum. you know the guy who wrote that would of been fine with holodomor? >Famine is more terrible than the sword."


Swingonthechandelier

I care little what he would or would not be fine with. The sentiment remains the same.


DoktorFreedom

Meow


G_Morgan

Were it not for nukes we'd be talking about unconditional surrender like in WW2 and a full NATO operation about now. As it is Russia fucking off home and being shit in their own country is about the nearest analogy to that we could achieve.


duffmanhb

I dissagree... Russia's humiliating handling of this is a defeat. They've set the entire nation back from so many areas, and exposed themselves with their pants down basically. Russia HAS been punished and HAS learned their lesson. So it's time to give them an offramp. I know people don't like the idea of Donbas going to them, but frankly, there isn't really any other solution. Russia isn't ever going to "end" as there is no defeat for them. People will complain "But then Russia will just regroup and go for the rest of Ukraine! You can't appease them!" Well, that's just the reality of the chess board. Because the only other option is endless forever war. Russia has no "defeat" in this scenario. If they want, they can retreat, and still do what people are worried about which is regroup and attack. The only realistic option is to carve out some sort of deal. The Donbas already hates western Ukraine and wants to be Russian, and have been fighting a civil war for nearly a decade anyways. And Russia has been absolutely hammered with long time sanctions that will forever cripple them as a force on the global stage.


Putinloses46

You have this figured out!


Superb-Confidence-95

No one is against the principle of negotiations,... but history has learned us that you can't negotiate neither with a dictator nor with a dictatorial regime,... and russia has a culture that doesn't lend itself for trustful negotiations,... this culture goes back nearly a thousand years,... people should learn more about different cultures as that defines the attitudes and mentalities of certain populations,.... YOU CAN'T TRUST MOST OF THE RUSSIANS, and, those that you can trust either left the country or are about to leave the country having evolved beyond their original culture,...


Practical-Ordinary-6

The USSR cheated on every single treaty they signed with the United States. They are pathological liars.


tenebris_vitae

More like every single treaty they have ever signed with anyone throughout their entire history


[deleted]

[удалено]


Practical-Ordinary-6

Give me a coherent explanation of what you're talking about and maybe I'll watch


SkateboardCore

fash pigs from u.s. and ru seem to be under the banner of ' pvtin ' n' co. what else ? mass murders in U.S. from vagner fash pig style lifers.. Colorado , Chicago.. all had mass murders by guns from pvtin's types.. apps dont help


Practical-Ordinary-6

I said coherent. But thanks anyway.


Potential_Wing9940

Were you in the process of suffering a stroke when you typed this?


SkateboardCore

BRAINS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB8T7MAEqSk


Humbuhg

McFaul speaks the truth about negotiations with Putin.


AmeeAndCookie

Putin doesn’t want to negotiate. The Kremlin has shown zero authentic will to do so. Then there is no point. It takes two.


canadatrasher

Putin can withdraw from Ukraine and then Zelenskyy will be happy to negotiate the future between the two states.


Putinloses46

This!!!


pstric

I am a nobody, so Michael McFaul is technically correct. Of course no one would want to invite Putin to the negotiations after Russias complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Would you have offered Hitler a chair at Cecilienhof?


nothra

You mean like the US did with Hirohito?


pstric

I did not mention Hirohito, and I do not think that we should force a Russian surrender with nukes.


nothra

No surrender, no nukes. Just leave now and negotiate to never come back.


Makkuroi

Hirohito was just a figurehead and the US knew.


FrogFrozen

This, DoktorFreedom doesn't know the circumstances behind Hirohito. Hirohito's actual involvement was that of a man who knew what his country was doing was wrong, but he basically had no power to do much about it because the Japanese military had gone completely insane. He decided to just stay quiet for fear of someone worse replacing him if he speaks out. And when it came time for peace, he was generally very regretful over Japan's behavior and was the first to start setting Japan down the path of pacifism. Hirohito even dedicated the near entire upbringing of his son Akihito to making sure Akihito could reign as a figure of pacifism and diplomatic peace once Akihito became emperor. And Akihito did exactly that and is the main reason modern Japan is so thoroughly non-violent. There's a lot of war criminals in Japan that got away with no trial at the end of WW2, but letting specifically Hirohito go free had a very large Return-on-Investment for maintaining international peace. Hirohito's definitely got some complicity in him, but he was still far from the contrarian, spite-filled monsters Hitler was and Putin is.


DoktorFreedom

Oh wow. This still flies?


iggygrey

And the first thing he would want is a cease fire with forces stopped in place. He wants a breather not peace. As soon as his army is rested, equipment repaired and replaced and troops redeployed the negotiations end.


P000K

When Ukraine gave up its nukes, Russia promised never to invade. And here we are. Russia's word is meaningless and not trustworthy. Leaving all of Ukraine, reparations, returning the stolen children, and new regime should be the very least demanded. But i think Ukraine should annex a few Russian power plants for themselves.


Practical-Ordinary-6

Ukraine already signed a treaty where the Russians pledged to respect their borders. What good would a second one do? Maybe if they said, "We really mean it this time" that would make it all good.


airborne_herpes

It depends on the terms. If the terms are getting the Donbass and Crimea back with no further fighting, and Ukraine has been accepted into NATO, becoming effective as soon as the war ends, then yeah of course they should. If the terms are for fighting to stop tomorrow and Russia to keep all the territory they currently control, it’s definitely not a good deal for Ukraine and it will encourage more Russian attacks. Anything between those two extremes is going to be debatable. Dragging out the war may make one side or the other weaker or stronger. It’s pitting the west’s willingness to send aid against the weakening Russian economy and any alliances they may or may not be able to draw from.


mordinvan

Actually I am against negotiations at the moment, because it is an utter waste of time. I just want Ukraine to get the weapons needed to do the job as swiftly as possible.


Putinloses46

Putin deserves none of Ukraine. So if he agrees to that(including Crimea), the War will be over.


Jamesmusclefinder689

The thing is like any bully you have to punch them in the face outsmart them and than once outsmarted have to push the power they Hold till they squirm for peace and need it hence why Ukraine is winning now


Falcrack

Would negotiations with Hitler in 1943, when Germany controlled most of Europe and large parts of the Soviet Union, have been appropriate? Would it have been a good idea for the allies, who saw the writing on the wall and knew that the defeat of Germany was just a matter of time, to negotiate while Germany still possessed so much stolen territory? Absolutely not.


AutoModerator

**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.net/McFaul/status/1593514913783156736?s=20&t=aVbh6D7SvVpj8af5jUQKow ***** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*


Dazzling-Ad4701

Glad someone said it.


Intreductor

"Peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain, September 30th 1938, after signing the Munich agreement. ​ I will just leave this without context, letting you form your own conclusions.


formerly_gruntled

There doesn't have to be a cease fire to negotiate. We fought in Korea for months while negotiating. Putin wants a cease fire so he can rearm. He will have no interest in real negotiating while still fighting.


Breech_Loader

It would be great to be ABLE to negociate for peace with Putin. But nothing Putin has ever done, ever - during this war or in the last 20 years - shows he'll keep any promise he makes - and he would likely see Ukraine keeping their promises as a sign of weakness.


KnotSoSalty

A kidnapper has your child. How much of your child’s body you get back can’t be negotiable. The whole child has to be returned, then negotiations can be begin.


YaztromoX

I barge into your home brandishing a gun, and take over the living room. You beat the ever-loving crap out of me, and I demand negotiations asking that I be allowed to live forever in your living room in return for peace. How does that situation make sense to anyone?


cecilkorik

I don't want war, I want Ukraine to establish full control over all territory and people within its original and legally recognized 1991 borders. If some of those people don't want to remain in Ukraine, Russia is welcome to open its borders to Russo-Ukrainian refugees as a humanitarian measure. I respect Ukrainian sovereignty and would welcome a peace that also unequivocally respects Ukrainian sovereignty over their 1991 borders. This is not an unreasonable position, this is simply the status quo before an illegal invasion was begun. But we all know Russia will never agree to that. So war it is.


moldhack

I don't even see another way than Ukraine winning this war. If Russia doesn't lose, we're all fucked.


sverebom

Yeah, that's something that pisses me off about those that demand negotiations. They not only talk about this in a way that requires Ukraine to lose, but they also make it sound as if we enjoy the war. We would all much rather talk about tractors instead of tanks for Ukraine, and if there is a viable road to get there through negotiations, I'm all for it. But right now that road is blocked on the Russian side and the only way to break that blockade is through fighting until the Russian government understands that there can only be peace with an intact and sovereign Ukraine.


One-Research-4422

For a world that is supposedly run by greedy arms manufacturers who want war(not my conspiracy) there are a lot of really greedy people who want this war to stop because it is depressing the global economy. War is really bad for business and is extremely wasteful as products made for war are rarely magnifiers for economic growth. Take an electric car...as these are scaled up they will replace fossil fuels which will lower demand for fuels which will lower cost of fuels which will make everything cheaper from vacations to building infrastructure. Build a set of missiles, they sit on a ship or cargo plane, then in a deployment area, then they become scrap whether they hit something or not...complete waste of manpower, materials, and transportation. And guess who paid for them, taxpayers who either pay higher taxes or look at a deficit which is growing, which also influences them to turn down investment projects that would increase growth because of unhealthy national debt.


Hot-Builder-6192

Putin goes away, new regime comes, admits war&damages, negotiates peace, pays in full the reconstruction, makes sure shit like this never happens. But we’re not in an ideal world. So as long as that piece of shit and his circle are still there, there can be no negotiations.


PMMEFEMALEASSSPREADS

Russia can end this war any time they want. There is no need for “negotiations”. Get the fuck out of Ukraine.


bslade

I'm sure *this* *time* Russia wouldn't ignore a signed treaty. I'm also sure that *this* *time* Lucy will let Charlie kick the football: https://media.tenor.com/bOohmKoS3d0AAAAC/snoopy-peanuts.gif (for those who don't know the Peanuts cartoon, it's a recurring theme where Lucy tells Charlie that she's sorry about all the times she's tricked him, but this time she'll let him kick the football. Every time her apology is more emphatic, more heart felt, and more convincing, and every time she pulls the football away at the last second)


vladko44

What "negotiations"? Ruzzia could just stop bombing Ukrainian cities and GTFO our land. Then, maybe, we're going to negotiate about Dagestan becoming independent and northern Ossetia is going back to Sakartvelo.. Until then it's going to be a rough day for ruzzian terrorists.


norwegianboyEE

Negotiations for Russia is just another form of warfare. Might sound odd, but that's how they think. There is sadly no way of reasoning with Putin. He wants an colonial empire and nothing so far has dissuaded him from this course.


QuestionableNotion

I would love to see this war over. Problem is: Putin is liar. You cannot ever trust a Russian.


Motor_Bit_7678

Dont worry will be over faster thsn you think because of the following: 1 - Ruzzia GDP used to be equal to the GDP of Belgium and Netgerlands, This was before ther war. Now is atleast 10% to 20%s less that it was. 2- The cost to the US to support the war is only 5,6% of their military budget which compared to Ruzzia thats massive, so for sure Ruzzia army is broke no money by now. Thats why they cannot afford to give proper uniforms to the mobiks. 3 - Everyone is talking about how much Ruzzia is making from oil and gas sales but not seen any comment on how much it costs to produce. Last I checked Ruzzia break even oil price was on the $70 and not to mention ageing equipment and pipe lines. In a nutshell to have a war a country needs money and my question from where is Ruzzia getting all this money to take on the pro democracy world. Therefore for me uts a simple fibancial calculation Russian failure on the horizon.


DontAskGrim

Twitter is toxic and makes you dumber just by reading it, since you expose yourself to dumb people. Avoid at all costs.


Alaric_Balthi

Negotiation? Sure, they can talk. Nothing wrong with that. There's just not much to talk about as long as ruzzia is in Ukraine. Truce? Fuck no, to even think Ukraine would agree to that is insane. Peace? Sure, right after ruzzia has left 100% of the land they have occupied illegally. We should not mix those, the first is needed for the latter two but seeing how ruzzia is still in Ukraine killing civilians and destroying civilian infra, there won't be much to talk. But sure, negotiate as long as the world is not hoping for Ukraine be the one to make concessions.


letdogsvote

100% truth. Putin can't be trusted at all. There is no point in Ukraine wasting time trying to deal with a genocidal murderous liar.


Fargrist

I get put off by anyone who uses the phrase "straw man". But. The good thing about the people who advocate negotiations is that they are telling you they are either bought by Putin, or are a useful idiot who watches TV like Fox News and are best avoided.


GCdotSup

You dont negotiate with Hitler


Wonderful-Sir6115

How one can negotiate with a party that is constantly lying and breaking the existing agreements?


GodFatherShinobi

We often talk about Russias economy but how long can Ukraines economy realisticly drag this out? Yes they receive alot of aid in weapons and military stuff. But I imagine millions of people cant work because of the war. How do they pay their bills? To keep their lights on and buy food? Is the country footing the Bill


Reasonedfor1

50 countries are providing support to Ukraine. Some neutral countries choose to stay hidden. But yep aid isnt limited to just weapons and military stuffs. Coming together has really eased the nightmarish WW2 burden US had to take to generate and provide Soviet Union $180 billion assistance as they fought to kick out Hitler.


greentshirtman

Why are pro-Russian so stupid? You imagine that this is some sort of slam dunk argument, yet you wouldn't bother posting it, if you could see the obvious holes in it.


GodFatherShinobi

Theres no argument being made. Im simply asking a question. If you cant answer it move on.


Potential_Wing9940

Ukraine is backed up by billions in economic aid and loans. It isn't just guns that are being sent to them.


SkateboardCore

[https://mastodon.online/@SocraticEthics/109378690792405564](https://mastodon.online/@SocraticEthics/109378690792405564) ukr news


CandyAssedJabroni

That's not what a strawman is. Nor is it a false dichotomy. That's just stating negotiations wouldn't be successful.


KVrus-Blur

Sorry, but what is about the news from the New York Times, that the videos of killing russian surrendered troops were true? Haven’t found any posts here about it


Little_Willy_Willy

The guy's a dumbass. Who even ever heard of this guy before the war. Now you can't avoid him because people keep amplifying his ignorance.


SkateboardCore

east ru will go to war w. west ru soon imho.. cheuchesku effect perhaps.. why pvtin uses ukraine as killing grounds.. away from countless upheval in ru . see 1420 youtube. some stuff.. very educational


Crag_r

Several comments in broken English. Who pays for a bot this bad lol


SkateboardCore

MAYBE .. doubt it but.. what if .. this guy : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry\_Medvedev#Crimea is actually the pusher' ? of all we see? post Crimea 2014\* ? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo5rK23f3bg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo5rK23f3bg) FL connection fsb? state gov. Pvshaw? Desanis? gazprom curaleaf? criminals abound. families defend\* . JBGC\* U.S. SRA. \* doozie . *viva mastodon*


BE_MORE_DOG

This reads like schizophrenia, I'm sorry to say.