I do still believe in Orelvis but I can see why he dropped of a top 100 list. He also carried an unsustainably low BABIP and if that slightly regresses to the mean the hit tool likely would be considerd a bit less of a liability
He’s no Joey Gallo, much lowe K Rate (and unfortunately walk rate)
Luciano is #22 and Marte is #29. Orelvis started the season at a higher level (AA) that they’ve yet to reach despite being younger than both. In 2021 when they were all in A ball, Orelvis put up the best wRC+ of the trio while being the youngest. Marte commits enough errors to make Bo look like a gold glover and Luciano is subpar defensively so they all have questions about their ability to stick at SS. The industry is low on Orelvis because of his perceived value based on his results in AA. When in reality, he belongs with those other 2 and had the Jays not rushed him to AA and he played A+ ball, he would be ranked in that range. Part of that was due to Orelvis being red hot during spring training.
I think he has the potential to bounce back (In terms of contact, he already has the power) and possibly even get better but I can understand why at this moment his stock as a prospect would be a lot lower.
For those who take away from this that the Blue Jays system is "weak" because it doesn't have a bunch of universally recognized top 100 prospects, scouts for [Baseball America](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6OVDs7LEQBzpXI5hnZWMfm?si=iBBu3CCNTVS_9Vh9iqOxDw&utm_source=copy-link) believe the system is underrated by many due to the types of prospects they target that don't really have a consensus, mostly high contact multi positional players who are looking to grow into power swings for example. A lot of them are still a few years away (Beltre, Barreira, Toman, Doughty, Robberse, Bonilla) but its a smart development approach to target specific types of players.
A few breakthroughs like Tiedemann or Zulueta each year is probably enough for a team in the spot were in, and there is a ton of other pieces that are appealing to other teams or can step in at the major league level.
They also believe Orelvis fell due to the strikeout rate climbing, but the source for the climbing strikeout rate was described not as an inability to hit or catch up to different speeds, but was possibly a lack of a plate discipline or even pitch recognition, things I personally think may or may not be addressed more easily
I have a good feeling we'll see a potential few prospects enter the top 100 rankings relatively soon depending on how aggressive the Blue Jays are with promoting a few of them.
Instead of being the next Bo Bichette he's slated to be the next Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Good speed, good contact but very little power.
and that doesn't mean he won't be a good player, but definitely not what he was projected to be.
Non of them are Top 100 prospects either though.
Moreno graduated. Groshans hasn’t been Top 100 in years. Martin has fallen off considerably since we traded him.
They very specifically pointed out that Moreno graduated from the list and didn’t drop out.
Prospect Requirement on Pipeline for Hitters is either 130 AB or 45 days on the active roster.
- Moreno only had 69 AB but was active for 61 Days.
- Gunnar only had 116 AB and was active for just 36 Days.
Which is why /u/stv7 pointed out a week ago (and had several people argue back) how incredibly odd and unprecedented it is for a top prospect to lose prospect status based on service time rather than playing time, and very possibly points to the Jays purposefully shielding him from playing baseball to hide his flaws before they could move him.
It is. Gunnar and Corbin who are ranked 1-2 both still have eligibility and played more than Moreno. Both will lose eligibility within 15 days.
Francisco Álvarez is the #1 prospect in baseball realistically.
I guess because I misunderstood what is an incredibly flawed system. A player with more game action in the majors than another is still eligible while the other is not . My bad 😅
the strategy is flipping picks early before they lose value is a not an optimal strategy. Trading an asset on the high is a good strategy but when you are consistently picking a stock at 50 and selling it at 25 because it may go to 15, you’re still under water, just not as bad as it could be.
Apologies for missing Bo, I missed that
No that's not it. Close, he wasn't known for building stadiums in Cleveland. He had just started in the org when they started on Jacobs Field. He was known for building farm systems. We'll be fine.
And when they renovated the stadium in 2014-2015? That was Shapiro. That's why he was brought to Toronto.
The farm system piece? They've done a pretty good job of developing guys who are currently on the Major League roster, and of using prospects they acquired to add further Major League-calibre players
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Sure, but which of them are in this top 100 list? Moreno would but he's graduated. Austin dropped off (looks like it was wise to move him when they did), and Groshans dropped off too.
So far, they've done exceptionally well at identifying the keepers and selling high on the rest. They've got a lot of other guys that the industry doesn't value as highly as they do as well. I'm a big believer in the current organizational philosophy.
These lists are still mostly meaningless…
- In 2020 Jo Adell was ranked the 6th best prospect in baseball. He has a career OPS of .615 in 522 AB.
- In 2021 Jarred Kelenic was ranked the 4th best prospect in baseball. He has a career OPS of .589 in 500 AB.
Spencer Torkelson who was 3rd in 2021 (OPS of .604) and CJ Abrams who was 8th in 2022 (OPS of .604) ain’t looking that great either.
Not to mention we can all agree HOU is great at development and they only have 1 prospect on the list as well.
That's what I'm trying to say. Our farm system will be fine. I was responding to people acting like this is a huge deal, I just wasn't clear enough about that apparently.
Hopefully we can officially move on from AA leaving the cupboards bare. Ran the guy out of town for it only to end up in a worse spot with a team that’s achieved less.
That’s ridiculous. Cheering for a team does not mean you have like all their decisions or the people making those decisions. The ability to be critical is important, if you’re just cheering on everything your not a fan you’re a homer
AA quit, there is zero reason to make this comment because again he left. He wasn't fired, he only didn't re-sign because Rogers didn't make him the president of operations and TBH his 2021 ring that was built mostly built off the previous regime (and the fluke of having 3 average OFers having god tier perfomances in the postseason) doesn't change that either.
Braves have a huge and elite core locked up for 7 years.
I don’t really care about who’s better as a GM perspective because it’s completely subjective, but to suggest he is just lucky and not a good exec is absurd. Especially if you’re defending this FO, who have accomplished far less and are no where near set up for the next decade as the braves are
Rebuilds and building contenders takes time, especially when both your major league team and the farm are in a bad state as a starting point for a new Front Office.
There are a lot of contenders that have prospects all over this list (dodgers have 8!!)
I think it’s okay for us to admit that this FO doesn’t have a great draft record.
Let’s look at just 1 & 2 round picks the last 5 years;
2016 Zeuch, Woodward (Bo was 3rd round)
2017 warmoth, Pearson, danner
2018 Groshans, Conine
2019 Manoah, Williams
2020 Martin, van elk
2021 hoglund, (Ricky t 3rd round)
So in 6 drafts in the first 2 rounds they had 12 picks. Out of 12 they produced one legitimate TOR Major league starter (Manoah). 2 top picks they immediately traded (hoglund, Martin) but both have fallen off, the rest have either under performed, fallen off, or haven’t met expectations due to health (Pearson)
Things seem to be getting better but it’s okay to admit that the first 6 years or this regime were not pretty and we are seeing the results of that now
1. Bo Bichette was a 2nd Round Pick (66th Overall). The compensatory picks bump it down a few spots but that is still the Jays normal 2nd round pick.
2. Williams and Woodward were both also traded pretty much right away for Stripling and Grichuk. Conine was traded as well for Villar but several years after being picked.
3. Where you pick is mostly a wash in baseball. The Dodgers 8 prospects on the Top 100 list only 2 are first or second round picks. One more than the Jays. They have done a better job mostly with international signings.
Being able to flip prospects who don’t fully reach their draft potential is still very important and this front office has done a good job at insuring value is still provided:
Traded: Woodward (Grichuk), Conine (Villar), Martin (Berrios), Williams (Stripling), Hogland (Chapman) & Groshans (Bass/Pop).
Flopped w/ Us: Zeuch & Warmoth
Jury Out: Pearson, Danner, CJ & Ricky
Sweet: Bo & Monoah
The other comment already broke down the actual draft selections but I just wanted to add that organizations like the Dodgers had a lot more time to establish a farm system where they can have waves of talent rise while still competiting on a major league level. The Blue Jays F.O. is also working to accomplish this and 2022 was a year where they spent a lot of effort refilling the farm with talent. As I said in another comment I would not be surprised if the Blue Jays have a few more prospects enter the top 100 relatively soon barring the Blue Jays aggressively calling them up like Manoah and Kirk.
For the first time as a legit playoff contender in this era, they don't look to have glaring holes on the roster to start the season either. They aren't going to have to move a bunch of pieces from the farm at the deadline this year out of necessity, which is going to help dramatically with restocking the farm system. That's part of building into a contender, and now with the roster so young, they're in a great spot unless and until the young core is lost to FA.
Great point. It's also beneficial that the organization is willing to spend in free agency to also address holes/shore up areas of need rather than only rely on development/trades which means less reliance on having to trade away talent in our farm.
I know it doesn't matter, but it seems oddly low when Kyle Harrison is 18. Ricky had better numbers in AA last year and is younger. Even if you see Kyle as the more refined prospect right now, the gap between them shouldn't be that big.
Wouldn't be too concerned about this at the moment, we have some prospects that could easily jump into this list and its not like the ones we traded away are on there anyways. the main core of the team are young and a lot of under 30's so there is significant time to build up the farm while also contending.
Orelvis was ranked 38th last winter
What happens to a dude who decided Joey Gallo was his idol
I do still believe in Orelvis but I can see why he dropped of a top 100 list. He also carried an unsustainably low BABIP and if that slightly regresses to the mean the hit tool likely would be considerd a bit less of a liability He’s no Joey Gallo, much lowe K Rate (and unfortunately walk rate)
Luciano is #22 and Marte is #29. Orelvis started the season at a higher level (AA) that they’ve yet to reach despite being younger than both. In 2021 when they were all in A ball, Orelvis put up the best wRC+ of the trio while being the youngest. Marte commits enough errors to make Bo look like a gold glover and Luciano is subpar defensively so they all have questions about their ability to stick at SS. The industry is low on Orelvis because of his perceived value based on his results in AA. When in reality, he belongs with those other 2 and had the Jays not rushed him to AA and he played A+ ball, he would be ranked in that range. Part of that was due to Orelvis being red hot during spring training.
Orelvis dropped from 38 to unranked 😵💫
I think he has the potential to bounce back (In terms of contact, he already has the power) and possibly even get better but I can understand why at this moment his stock as a prospect would be a lot lower.
0 former Blue Jays on the list too.
Maybe that speaks to our front office’s assessment of draft picks more than anything else
Really Austin Martin and SWR are no longer on the list? Is that because they have graduated or dropped?
Last year Austin was 12 rated prospect on the Twins team. He dropped off the top 100 before last season
I think SWR graduated? Not sure there but I’m fairly sure austin Martin didn’t graduate yet
For those who take away from this that the Blue Jays system is "weak" because it doesn't have a bunch of universally recognized top 100 prospects, scouts for [Baseball America](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6OVDs7LEQBzpXI5hnZWMfm?si=iBBu3CCNTVS_9Vh9iqOxDw&utm_source=copy-link) believe the system is underrated by many due to the types of prospects they target that don't really have a consensus, mostly high contact multi positional players who are looking to grow into power swings for example. A lot of them are still a few years away (Beltre, Barreira, Toman, Doughty, Robberse, Bonilla) but its a smart development approach to target specific types of players. A few breakthroughs like Tiedemann or Zulueta each year is probably enough for a team in the spot were in, and there is a ton of other pieces that are appealing to other teams or can step in at the major league level. They also believe Orelvis fell due to the strikeout rate climbing, but the source for the climbing strikeout rate was described not as an inability to hit or catch up to different speeds, but was possibly a lack of a plate discipline or even pitch recognition, things I personally think may or may not be addressed more easily
Hoping he can develop nicely! Dont know how comfortable I am with White/Kikuchi as our 5th rotation guy 😵💫
Barger is gonna sneak into the list this season, just watch.
If Yosver has a good season in AAA he'd definitely sneak in as well
Might just sneak onto the big club instead!
I have a good feeling we'll see a potential few prospects enter the top 100 rankings relatively soon depending on how aggressive the Blue Jays are with promoting a few of them.
What happened to Austin Martin??? Did he drop off or age out?
He dropped off bc he's a noodle bat with no set position
Instead of being the next Bo Bichette he's slated to be the next Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Good speed, good contact but very little power. and that doesn't mean he won't be a good player, but definitely not what he was projected to be.
Lourdes doesn’t have good speed
don’t think he will be as good as Gurriel Jr
He is a career minor league .255 hitter. He doesn’t even hit for average really.
So you’re telling me our window is open!
well yes we traded everyone away, moreno, groshans, maartin and martinez has fallen
Non of them are Top 100 prospects either though. Moreno graduated. Groshans hasn’t been Top 100 in years. Martin has fallen off considerably since we traded him.
Moreno still would have qualified. Gunnar is number one in the list and played 34 games with Baltimore in 2022.
They very specifically pointed out that Moreno graduated from the list and didn’t drop out. Prospect Requirement on Pipeline for Hitters is either 130 AB or 45 days on the active roster. - Moreno only had 69 AB but was active for 61 Days. - Gunnar only had 116 AB and was active for just 36 Days.
BA is THE source for prospects not pipeline
Thanks for the clarification , criteria seems extremely flawed considering the lack of playing time Moreno had compared to Gunnar .
Which is why /u/stv7 pointed out a week ago (and had several people argue back) how incredibly odd and unprecedented it is for a top prospect to lose prospect status based on service time rather than playing time, and very possibly points to the Jays purposefully shielding him from playing baseball to hide his flaws before they could move him.
It is. Gunnar and Corbin who are ranked 1-2 both still have eligibility and played more than Moreno. Both will lose eligibility within 15 days. Francisco Álvarez is the #1 prospect in baseball realistically.
Not sure why you got downvoted
I guess because I misunderstood what is an incredibly flawed system. A player with more game action in the majors than another is still eligible while the other is not . My bad 😅
No - MLB Pipeline noted that Moreno no longer qualified
Moreno #12 on BA's Top 100, correct on the others they have fallen off all lists
the strategy is flipping picks early before they lose value is a not an optimal strategy. Trading an asset on the high is a good strategy but when you are consistently picking a stock at 50 and selling it at 25 because it may go to 15, you’re still under water, just not as bad as it could be. Apologies for missing Bo, I missed that
They got a pretty good return on keeping Manoah as well.
Remind me, what was Shapiro supposed to be so good at again? edit: yall need to relax. Our farm system will be fine. That's all I'm saying.
Building stadiums. He's done it in Dunedin, and he's doing it in Toronto.
No that's not it. Close, he wasn't known for building stadiums in Cleveland. He had just started in the org when they started on Jacobs Field. He was known for building farm systems. We'll be fine.
And when they renovated the stadium in 2014-2015? That was Shapiro. That's why he was brought to Toronto. The farm system piece? They've done a pretty good job of developing guys who are currently on the Major League roster, and of using prospects they acquired to add further Major League-calibre players
...wooosh I'm not criticizing Shapiro. Chill out.
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You realize that we have traded a ton of our prospects to improve our major league roster?
Yes, am I criticizing Shapiro, or am I talking to the people panicking? We'll rebuild the system just fine.
Sure, but which of them are in this top 100 list? Moreno would but he's graduated. Austin dropped off (looks like it was wise to move him when they did), and Groshans dropped off too.
So far, they've done exceptionally well at identifying the keepers and selling high on the rest. They've got a lot of other guys that the industry doesn't value as highly as they do as well. I'm a big believer in the current organizational philosophy.
These lists are still mostly meaningless… - In 2020 Jo Adell was ranked the 6th best prospect in baseball. He has a career OPS of .615 in 522 AB. - In 2021 Jarred Kelenic was ranked the 4th best prospect in baseball. He has a career OPS of .589 in 500 AB. Spencer Torkelson who was 3rd in 2021 (OPS of .604) and CJ Abrams who was 8th in 2022 (OPS of .604) ain’t looking that great either. Not to mention we can all agree HOU is great at development and they only have 1 prospect on the list as well.
Recently I saw the top 10 prospects from 2011 posted. There was one name that made something of himself at the MLB level (can't remember who it was).
2011 had both Trout (#1) and Harper (#3). Don’t think there been two better success stories than that.
That's what I'm trying to say. Our farm system will be fine. I was responding to people acting like this is a huge deal, I just wasn't clear enough about that apparently.
Not that I doubt that's what you meant, but I literally can't understand how your comment was supposed to imply that.
Hey I admitted I wasn't clear enough. I had just woken up and was trying to be sarcastic or something I don't know.
All in, world series or bust baby. Enjoy the next couple years.
Hopefully we can officially move on from AA leaving the cupboards bare. Ran the guy out of town for it only to end up in a worse spot with a team that’s achieved less.
The Braves are only a subreddit away, you can go bandwagon AA there.
Been a Jays fan for decades, I don’t like this current management. Sue me.
That's why we are recommending you switch to a team which management you'd love
That’s ridiculous. Cheering for a team does not mean you have like all their decisions or the people making those decisions. The ability to be critical is important, if you’re just cheering on everything your not a fan you’re a homer
AA quit, there is zero reason to make this comment because again he left. He wasn't fired, he only didn't re-sign because Rogers didn't make him the president of operations and TBH his 2021 ring that was built mostly built off the previous regime (and the fluke of having 3 average OFers having god tier perfomances in the postseason) doesn't change that either.
Braves have a huge and elite core locked up for 7 years. I don’t really care about who’s better as a GM perspective because it’s completely subjective, but to suggest he is just lucky and not a good exec is absurd. Especially if you’re defending this FO, who have accomplished far less and are no where near set up for the next decade as the braves are
If you're comparing this FO to the previous one, keep in mind the 'cupboard' here includes Bo, Manoah, Kirk, Varsho, etc...
Rebuilds and building contenders takes time, especially when both your major league team and the farm are in a bad state as a starting point for a new Front Office.
There are a lot of contenders that have prospects all over this list (dodgers have 8!!) I think it’s okay for us to admit that this FO doesn’t have a great draft record. Let’s look at just 1 & 2 round picks the last 5 years; 2016 Zeuch, Woodward (Bo was 3rd round) 2017 warmoth, Pearson, danner 2018 Groshans, Conine 2019 Manoah, Williams 2020 Martin, van elk 2021 hoglund, (Ricky t 3rd round) So in 6 drafts in the first 2 rounds they had 12 picks. Out of 12 they produced one legitimate TOR Major league starter (Manoah). 2 top picks they immediately traded (hoglund, Martin) but both have fallen off, the rest have either under performed, fallen off, or haven’t met expectations due to health (Pearson) Things seem to be getting better but it’s okay to admit that the first 6 years or this regime were not pretty and we are seeing the results of that now
1. Bo Bichette was a 2nd Round Pick (66th Overall). The compensatory picks bump it down a few spots but that is still the Jays normal 2nd round pick. 2. Williams and Woodward were both also traded pretty much right away for Stripling and Grichuk. Conine was traded as well for Villar but several years after being picked. 3. Where you pick is mostly a wash in baseball. The Dodgers 8 prospects on the Top 100 list only 2 are first or second round picks. One more than the Jays. They have done a better job mostly with international signings. Being able to flip prospects who don’t fully reach their draft potential is still very important and this front office has done a good job at insuring value is still provided: Traded: Woodward (Grichuk), Conine (Villar), Martin (Berrios), Williams (Stripling), Hogland (Chapman) & Groshans (Bass/Pop). Flopped w/ Us: Zeuch & Warmoth Jury Out: Pearson, Danner, CJ & Ricky Sweet: Bo & Monoah
The other comment already broke down the actual draft selections but I just wanted to add that organizations like the Dodgers had a lot more time to establish a farm system where they can have waves of talent rise while still competiting on a major league level. The Blue Jays F.O. is also working to accomplish this and 2022 was a year where they spent a lot of effort refilling the farm with talent. As I said in another comment I would not be surprised if the Blue Jays have a few more prospects enter the top 100 relatively soon barring the Blue Jays aggressively calling them up like Manoah and Kirk.
For the first time as a legit playoff contender in this era, they don't look to have glaring holes on the roster to start the season either. They aren't going to have to move a bunch of pieces from the farm at the deadline this year out of necessity, which is going to help dramatically with restocking the farm system. That's part of building into a contender, and now with the roster so young, they're in a great spot unless and until the young core is lost to FA.
Great point. It's also beneficial that the organization is willing to spend in free agency to also address holes/shore up areas of need rather than only rely on development/trades which means less reliance on having to trade away talent in our farm.
I know it doesn't matter, but it seems oddly low when Kyle Harrison is 18. Ricky had better numbers in AA last year and is younger. Even if you see Kyle as the more refined prospect right now, the gap between them shouldn't be that big.
I think the gap represents the difference in perceived risk. It's all completely arbitrary though.
Wouldn't be too concerned about this at the moment, we have some prospects that could easily jump into this list and its not like the ones we traded away are on there anyways. the main core of the team are young and a lot of under 30's so there is significant time to build up the farm while also contending.
Wow. The orioles have 8 players in this list.
It's all orioles and dodgers haha.