By - karmalizing
What happened with SOAC, why is delisted?
It's not, ticker change is fucky with certain brokers. Webull for example, will say the stock has been delisted for about a day.
What's everyones unpopular opinion on a SPAC (or the SPAC market in general)? Lets hear them.
Mine is that RKLB, at $14.50 a share representing a 6 billion dollar enterprise value, is extremely overvalued for a company that operates in a high risk market and has produced negligible revenue to date ($100M lifetime revenue is nothing for a 6 billion dollar company).
Yes I know they have 20 successful launches where many of their competitors are yet to complete one but the pace of new launches has not increased in the last two years at all. Revenue was actually down in 2020 vs 2019 and I wouldn't be surprised if 2021 is flat or down also. They had 6 launches in 2019, 7 in 2020, and 4 in 2021 to date including just 1 in Q2 (the unsuccessful BlackSky one) and 1 in Q3. Q2 earnings are released on Thursday and I think they will disappoint (I can't see how they won't) and RKLB will be back to $10 or slightly under. They need to demonstrate significant growth to justify their current valuation IMO.
ASTR valuation is what is truly preposterous when compared to RKLB.
>Mine is that RKLB, at $14.50 a share representing a 6 billion dollar enterprise value, is extremely overvalued for a company that operates in a high risk market and has produced negligible revenue to date ($100M lifetime revenue is nothing for a 6 billion dollar company).
Mine is that JOBY, at $10.00 a share representing a 6 billion dollar market cap, is extremely overvalued for a company that operates in a high risk market and has produced negligible revenue to date ($0.00 lifetime revenue is nothing for a 6 billion dollar company).
This is not an unpopular opinion
I have many unpopular opinions on here and I get downvoted for them but I don’t care, I think it’s important to counter lines of thinking than the herd mindset here
I believe it's difficult to evaluate these sorts of "neo-space" companies with traditional valuation metrics or even fundamental analysis. In my view, for them, $50M revenue is no better than $20M or none at all. Some people who are buying in now are probably doing so for the far-future prospect that these space companies will realize value in ways not yet imaginable. Other people might buy companies like Rocket Lab because it's a cult company and financials, etc. don't matter at all to them - and with a healthy $777M in cash proceeds from the merger, Rocket Lab will be around for quite some time.
Thus, these space companies' current bloated valuations are not a massive issue if they're simply considered moonshot plays to begin with. (Of course, these kinds of arguments won't fly with Wall Street / valuation sticklers / people who have been around in the market for a long time, but hey...)
For better or worse, such companies often trade on hope and stories - Virgin Galactic being another example. I'm not sure how long this can last. If there's a significant correction, I expect these fundamentally unsound names would be the first to get dumped. But then again, we are drunk on liquidity/QE, low rates, and Cathie Wood-style thinking, so I also wouldn't be surprised if they continue to command multibillion market caps in the foreseeable future.
I agree. The valuation is too high for revenue. But meme potential and future growth potential are important. But I'm not buying at this price. I think one day it will return to earth. See how fun the meme is?
I agree, it's not such an attractive target when you compare fundamentals to valuation, I think the valuation is being driven by meme potential.
There's a lot of companies mentioned here that are far worse than RKLB, in terms of earnings, valuation, and timeline.
That being said, I think you're right and I'll be looking to DCA back into RKLB starting near $11. I also have some 10/15 14p
Interesting SEC investigation into Coinbase’s use of USDC as a yield generating product. Could have ramifications for CND as well as the notion of staking crypto in general.
Yep, I agree. Definitely something to watch closely
Who remembers the "SPACs under $11" posts?
Funny to think about
Don’t joke or it will happen again
Warrants under $2
Those were 'cheap' warrants then. How the turntables.
It's obvious why lots of SPACS like body, payo, etc were down today.
People selling to buy shitty despac lottery tickets and or crypto.
Small caps in general were down. Dollar up & bond yields moving usually signal concern interest rates are going to rise sooner than later. Low revenue growth companies get hammered in that environment.
Actually legit argument
Anyone know why de-spac CCCS was down a buck today? Little surprising considering high institutional ownership.
Not sure but alot of the SPACs that had been on a good run in the last week or so had a sharp correction today. Check out PAYO, DOMA, AVPT, SHCR, and PTRA - very similar graphs.
Let’s get a separate thread for all the short squeeze penny slot option fiends. Too much spammy WSB bs. They will come crawling back when they miss hard even after hitting a few
Agreed, we should all be talking about solid undervalued companies, have you heard of our lord and savior Joby?
"They will all come crawling back" to my joby $18 pt
Ah yes crawling back to all of the money being made on “solid” deSPACs and warrants. Some of you guys are something else… a huge reason why nearly all of your spacs have been beaten down the past several months is because of how much they’ve been shorted/hedged. Then we see how that type of activity can be explosive with the right catalysts (while IV is still minuscule and options are dirt cheap), and everyone throws a fit because it’s not their bags being pumped
I hear you but damn man it’s just shit trading. Sloppy gme amc bullshit. At some point people will get rinsed it’s just a matter of being lucky on the exit
"Sloppy gme amc bs" No wonder you're salty about this environment, if that's what you genuinely think that's all it is.
Not salty dude, honestly it’s just really lame to see nonstop all day when this sub seemed to be a haven away from all that in the past. If everyone is stoked on it than I’m in the wrong on this one.
Nearly every SPAC has dumped nonstop since February and the retail bid disappeared. It has started to come back and people are making a killing, of course it’s going to be talked about on here
Some great long term gems tho that get uncovered. I wish you luck finding the shittiest SPAC of them all and pouring your hard earned money into it
You're the only one I ever see complaining about this. Volume here isn't good enough for that idea anyway.
I like that idea, even though I'm one of them
Wish u the best of luck
Number of SPAC/DeSPAC Ws had nice bumps today
RKLY 20, SFTW 19, DMYQ 15, DBDR 12, LEGO 11, RICE 10
Thinking HZAC will get one at some point, planning to open a position to hold through merger. Looking pretty juicy sub 1.45.
Pre DA warrant hunters, when does TWND become a buy, 1/2 in the U, 1/2 way through its life, ~ 3 weeks out from breaking the QOMPLX deal. Could be seeing fills sub .5 soon. Will have some stink bids out on it way low for quick flips most likely.
I'm in HZAC, my only worry there would be COVID/closure fallout which I assume is why it's pulled back a bit, but the warrants do seem nice at the current price range.
Volatility in DeSPACs has gone crazy since last Thursday.
I like to pull up the [closed SPAC](https://spactrack.net/closedspacs/) list on Spac Trac everyday just to see what's moving. I don't think I've ever seen so many of them up or down 5% for the day before. Yes some are low float squeeze plays but alot of the older deSPACs have been volatile as well.
You think we're here to talk about boomer stocks that move 0.05% per day? Hello?
Jokes aside yes big moves in the past couple of days, or in the past couple weeks. One week everyone is risk on degen and the next day they're taking profit and heading into defensive big tech. Everyone is just waiting for J Powell to give the signal and lets everything run later this month.
This is why I’m here, Degens revived this last week.
There's got to be an explanation for AVPT, BODY and PAYO today. PIPE unlock or insider shares unlocking. Do we have a guess?
People selling for despac lottery tickets or crypto
BARK as well to a lesser extent. Just hope it’ll rebound tmr
I’m uncertain why PAYO had pushed up so hard the week before. I’m glad I said screw it and kept my CC going despite their blood red nature.
So…. VIH probably gonna start bleeding back down to 10?
Why? Short interest is still high, is it not?
Contrary to retail belief, there’s many stock with high SI that don’t end up squeezing lol
I get that, but nothing has changed that would suggest VIH slowly bleeds back to 10.
Or if it has, you haven't pointed it out.
I respect your opinions and I don't downvote people.
I hate that someone else can give you the wrong impression of me. Anyway....
It's too early imo. VIH hasn't despac'd arb funds can get out now and make profit instead of waiting to redeem...
I don't entirely disagree, it's not a very high conviction play. I probably have 3% of my capital tied up in it.
Bakkt doesn't seem too bad to me, and that helps.
I'll still grab some far otm options and hope but I haven't heard a good argument why it would squeeze pre despaccing with its float size yet I'll get downvoted rather than disproved none the less
The downvotes come hilariously fast for this time of night
Any opinions on acic?
Hope to unload my SOFI tomorrow. Missed the opportunity today.
Desperate to dump BODY and BARK at a reasonable price.
In my opinion you’re going to regret dumping SOFI
Everytime you post I picture you as the virgin from the virgin/chad meme
far happier ever since I stopped putting money into SPACs and exclusively buying VTI + VT. My only goal for SPACs is find a time to dump them.Never averaging down. Thankfully I dont own too many. Just 300 shares of BODY to dump. 400 shares of SOFI. 500 shares of PTRA. Thats it. Thats too much but thats it.
New law of life for me that will never be broken is to never buy anything but VTI and VT no matter what. There is no such thing as a stock buying opportunity.
Well jokes aside if SPACs are causing you so much stress probably a good idea.
Genuinely wish you the best going forward.
You aren't going to wait for the bank charter announcement?
For real lol. That’s like the only catalyst between now and the next earnings report. Idk why someone would sell now with the news on the bank supposedly coming out this week, unless of course it’s already been priced in and we’re gonna get shit on some more when the news comes out
fuck the bank charter nobody cares it is overvalued SPAC trash
Then why’d you buy it?
I ask myself that about every SPAC I have ever owned. The answer is because I'm a fucking idiot.
Anybody looking at CTAC as a merger play? Below NAV, cheap options, smallish trust and poor target. They even took out a loan in order to help close the merger
Doesn’t have options
Whoops my b
🙏 praying hard for the new Dogshit Despac strategy to blow up and send all these garbage mergers to zero 🙏
Serious man. I want the old regulars who contributed back 😢
As long as there are bears on this strategy (which judging by the comments I've been reading, there are plenty), these "shit SPAC gamma squeezes" will continue to 🚀🚀
Then when FOMO kicks in and folks join in, everything will crash. We can go back to losing money again
Want to buy like 500 SPAC calls for a nickel each and just sit wait em out.... any recommendations? So far, I'm thinking PRPBs. Not gonna spread it out, just want 500 of a single SPAC
Risky game, but if that's your pleasure I think PRPB is your best bet. Honorable mention to CRHC.
Any word on the street as to what the acquisition targets are for PRPB & CRHC?
Looking to gamble away some nickel options too.
None. Chu is known to run a tight ship, and my guess is Robbins is the same given his age (old school).
I've decided...PRPB Nov 10s. Cheehoo!
IPOF calls are pretty tight, they go by 0.01 instead of regularly 0.05 or 0.10
IRNT $5 strike put October, going for $5 each.
I'd think if IRNT goes below $10 by next week they'd double in value.
Disclaimer: this is very unlikely.
Any call that's selling for that price is gonna end up worthless, almost without fail.
High risk high reward amigo!
You'd basically be betting on a DA/squeeze the next day with any calls you find for that price. The risk profile makes no sense.
Betting on DA pop, even if small pop 500 contracts would be potentially lucrative.... especially if SPACs are back by then. It's a dice roll with high upside
But 11/19 should be enough time…right!?!
That’s what I thought when I bought 7/16s in May….
So I guess I’m in a unique position where my SPACs are shitty enough not to rocket but not shitty enough to squeeze? Lol
right there with you..
Or so “good” they just drop.
Anyone think buying puts is “free money” on these squeezes check out the SPIR chain today, calls down bigly, puts down bigly. It’s not “free money”, need to be very careful with these jacked up premiums
wdym my irnt poots are doing great. I think IV crush on pds only work if youre buying otms
Yeah, its the same with any P&D. Its never that profitable playing the way down bc of IV. Learned this the hard way :/
Here's the latest: "Soaring Eagle anticipates completing its domestication to Delaware on September 15, 2021 and closing the Business Combination on September 16, 2021."
Ticker symbol changes from SRNG to DNA on Sep. 17.
Edit: Meant to reply to OP
Why is SRNGU at like $10.10? Literally free money if you split right?
Earlier conversation about this topic.
Why are the ACIC 9/17 $10c trading for $1.00? The floor will be removed by then?
Candidate for high redemptions
Fool an MM once, shame on me. fool them twice.... They won't get fooled again
MMs aren't gambling on high redemptions, they take profit when they can, especially when the company has a high likely hood of dumping to $6.
But they are widening the spread to increase volatility
HIMS finally going up ,thank god , but I don’t even care anymore , after El Salvador president tweeted about buying the dip , I cannot feel safe investing in the mania of these dot com bubble esque markets, while the least fortunate among us suffer, I want to see it all burn 🔥
^(Just bought SPY puts at lunch time)
SPY puts has to be the most dangerous play in the game right now
And correspondingly the most rewarding if it hits
You be surprised. OTM SPY puts are extremely expensive compared to OTM SPY calls.
Bruh what I though we’d already established that the indices will keep going up - or at the very least trading flat - unless (or until, depending on your viewpoint…) the Fed blows it and has no choice but to raise rates to stave off hyperinflation, pushing the entire economy into the most disruptive and disastrous deleveraging event in modern history. I don’t think that will ever happen, but even if I did…good luck timing that lol.
I finally started a small position in ORGN. Those guys are on every podcast and are not afraid to do the legwork. Again and again I’m returning to Chris Sacca’s interview about investing in green companies. This will be the trend of the decade.
Not someone from the company but Yet Another Value Podcast interviewed an ORGN bull in August. Worth a listen.
Yes, that one was amazing! Plus “McKinsey on Startups” recently interviewed both CEOs.
I feel like redemption numbers should be announced along with voting results.
They often are
ARQQ first SPAC to pop over $20 on ticker change day, since GOEV?
That's from memory (🌬️🌳)
Owned both but there were probably others.
No way, did that one squeeze as well?
My DCRC 10/15 10C plan worked. Kept picking them up for .05 when there was no one slapping the bid but me early last week. Sold half today at .15 for 200 percent gain on those bad boys, and letting the rest ride with no risk of not making profit on the trade
How many did you even sell? The OI is only 294 lol
Sold 20 of them. I mean listen, this isn’t the biggest win ever but it’s a good ratio lol. If DCRc actually moves it’ll be bigger money
I remeber that. Nice play!
u don't have the cost for options?
What do you mean? If I sold half at 200 percent I’m in profit no matter what overall
i have 3.5$ per contract of cost
Ohhh it’s free with my broker.
You're in EU right? That's high, most fees are $1 or less in US brokers
Dang.. The $.65 per options contract I pay with chase is cheap in comparison.
Not sure what the Sportradar $29b # was, but they're planning a $7.6-8B EV, based on a $26-$28 share price.
Hopefully it pops for Geni holders.(I'm out for now until Warrants get called)
Hzon dead, they are IPOing
It was a whole confusing mess with conflicting sources. The filing shows >1B outstanding shares, so some sources got midpoint valuation of ~$29B. Then everyone realized Class B shares were only worth 1/10, so real valuation is actually ~$8B like you said.
I've been trying to figure out if Momentus (MNTS) has an actual functioning business. They don't have a launch license from the federal government. The Vigoride launch vehicle is not functional. Launch customers should have dried up after the SEC probe. The founder fled. I presume all the proceeds from the merger are just going to salaries or insiders. So how is this a viable listed company AND trading above NAV? Are they just going to keep doing share offers for the next couple years, bleeding down until they are delisted and trade as a penny stock?
could be like NKLA too
Insiders/MMs propping up the SP before pipe unlock
when was the filling filled?
S1 was filed last week, 41m share unlock when it becomes effective, likely in a few weeks.
Stock also had a double top in the high 12s Friday and today and appears to be reversing… but you never know it looks super manipulated.
Also some big calls have been coming across the scanners which is very common before pipe unlock (Joby had similar high call volume) (Potentially naked call sales by insiders while premiums are high, although technically this is illegal)
Obligatory - no position (except a fuckton of oct 10p) and not financial advice
how is the liquidity on the puts?
2k volume on Oct 10p today
Found out what I'm buying tomorrow
Puts gang gang 😈
and that's exactly why it'll moon...
I literally do not even care if I have any of the warrants but would one of the big guys announce a DA so I can have an idea how this is going to go with those that I’m down 20-30%.
Accounts been either stagnant or bleeding for ages it seems like.
Sir this is a casino you're suppose to bet on that
Unfortunately (so far) I am betting on that.
agreed except i’m 20-40% down on most lol. honestly i really don’t want one of my ones i’m down 40% plus on to DA. pretty doubtful it will pop 66% to get me even. damn it sucks to type that
If you're down a dollar and it goes up a dollar, you're even. Doesn't matter that the percents are different. Always going to be higher percent but still $1
I’m thinking the exact same thing you’re posting. I’m honestly just hoping to get close to break even now on these to preserve something for the year but I’m thinking that they need to start announcing soon as the market can’t keep this up, IMO and I suspect they’ll be hit harder.
I do have several that I’m down about 40% but basically throwing in the towel on those in that I’ll just take what I can get when they DA. The other more namebrand SPACS I’d like to see if profit is possible from my starting point.
if PRPB, CHRC, FVT IGAC or LFTR hit a decent target i’ll be pretty solid though. one or two pops there will negate all my losses. the beauty of pre da warrants. the ones i’m down most on are fortunately my smaller positions
If people stop redeeming then deals might stop getting cancelled
If they want the deals to go through, they might want to use a realistic valuation.
if they stop redeeming the squeeze wont happen...
I can't tell if I should regret not fomoing into these retarded squeeze plays.
I'm just too busy at work to stare at charts all day, and after getting burned in Feb from gambling on speculative stocks I find its a lot easier mentally to stay in companies that actually have some promise.
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I still think researching and finding when PIPE dumps can occur is a better strategy than betting on short squeezes... also if PIPE can short their shares (which is what happened with RKLB).
Eager to learn. Could you please point me to a reference which shows Pipe has shorted for Rklb? Reddit post may be?
+1, the hardest part is picking which puts and when
It is, it’s bringing my account back
Sold DCRC for a slight gain, then bought SFTW at 10.53, then sold that at 10.72.
My final move of the day was all in on ACIC, 12,000 shares at 10.00
Does margin or something allow you to buy and sell your whole account several times a day? Never used it but with unsettled funds I know I can’t do that.
Yea I don't even ever use margin i just have my account with it to churn it over multiple times if needed for day trading
Oh yeah, TD Ameritrade moved me to advanced margin clearing so sometimes on my 115k account I’ll trade 1 mil in a day, lol
If JOBY goes to $8 ill buy everyone here a ____
Oh it will… soon
share of Joby
Of those who have experience seeing deals fall through, is there any correlation with the deal size of the pipe, and the halting of a merger?
Looking at some post DA warrents, and wondering if it's a false confidence to believe that those which secured a large PIPE relative to SPAC trust are a safer bet.
So got some upvotes, but what I'm really looking for is feedback XD
On the crypto action today :
> This is being caused by large investors taking profits over to Tesla and other Tech stocks after this weekends news of Teslas possible breakout to $3000. Don't be intimidated and DYR
!RemindMe 5 years
Did Tesla turn out to be a car company after all?
tesla s possible breakout for 500% gain? MC dont matter anymore like in crypto indeed
It never did with Tesla
Sold my VIH 12.5c right at close today. Missed the top (again) but made over 10k in profit (again) so not bad at all. Not the 150k I could of gotten for those IRNT calls this morning (🤢🤮) but how can you complain about back to back +500% profit plays? Learning still I guess.
No idea what the next move is though. Like at all lol. This shit is wild.
There isn't much more learning involved with this, nobody can predict the price action on these, not even the experts.
Congrats! Never hurts to take profits. I’m not trying to hit the top but waiting to see something that changes my mind that this is still not worth the risk.
Saving this comment for when VIH hits $30
^(a joke. probably)
I dont know if VIH will get that high, but I'm banking on $15 anyway. Price action is being upped & downed by day traders now, but fundamentally nothing has changed, VIH still has close to 40% of its' float shorted with a $10.00 NAV floor. That has never happened before in SPAC World.
Ortex data suggests that short interest went up 7% to 7.24m shares yesterday, which would also contribute to the downward pressure.
👋 trader here
Oh that is 100000% my luck
lol i’m still holding my handful
Why are fst-ws over $5?
I haven’t checked in a while but I’m assuming it’s because there is either confirmation or on the hope that the almost 50% of GNOG that FST owns is still part of the deal for FAST. I know I’ve been wondering how they’re going to handle the ownership of the GNOG shares
Forgot about gnog, thats part of it... thanks
Glad you asked, Chatham asset management owns a substantial amount of them.
AMHC? or does it gotta have options
Yeah, apparently everyone wants ten baggers now.
Cyxt filed its 424b after hours. 19 days from its s1, it basically lost its gains from the day so far ah. Effect hasn't been filed yet, they could do a fake out and hold it a few days or just get it over with. I would be very leary of anything that pumped today that has an s1 filed without a 424b. With cyxt 7.5p's are on the menu. As far as others opfi has a 29 day old s1 without a prospectus.
When they go this route it usually becomes effective the next day, if I remember correctly.
I thought OPFI was pipe-less?
It's founders shares and insider shares. The 424b unlocks amount of shares that will actually sell.
Those are locked up for up to 24 months though right? It says:
*With the exception of the Underwriter Shares and shares of Class A Common Stock underlying the Underwriter Warrants, all other shares of Class A Common Stock registered hereunder are subject to lock-up agreements prohibiting the sale of such shares for a period of up to twenty-four months after the Closing.*
The underwriters units are only a small amount so I don't see OPFI dropping when this goes effective (unlike the registrations involving PIPE shares which don't typically have a lock-up).
For October, no? September 17th seems too soon
Sir this is a casino. But in all seriousness both.