By - SPACsBot
So is PSTH gonna moon or dump at open?
Ask yourself if $25 is worth getting $14.75 of UMG, $5.25 of PSTH Remainco, and the option to buy SPARC somewhen in the next 5 years for $20.
Moon. Real question is how long it takes the SEC to ban what bill is doing
lmfao they're in his pocket
Get fucked, psth was always the superior spac
It's barely even a SPAC at this point, more like a Russian doll of tontine structures
Never owned PSTH myself, but if this works as people here are understanding it, it sounds like the most retail-friendly set-up I’ve ever heard of. You basically get 1 FREE option to buy his next SPAC at NAV per share of PSTH, and post-DA? That’s insane, even without UMG, which is a solid if slightly boring target.
Daddy Bill cares about us like that
It's only free if you got in at NAV. Currently, it costs you $5 if you assume UMG is fair value.
Ah, of course. Still a wild idea. Very curious to watch this from the sidelines.
Feels like a page in financial history tonight. Wonder how many SPACs are going to copy this model from here on.. it certainly makes the hype intense
500 UMG shares, 500 SPARC rights, and 500 shares left of PSTH to grab another target
There's no merger, the deal is basically PSTH using $4.1B of its cash to buy 10% of UMG shares. Vivendi is IPO-ing UMG themselves on AEX (Euronext Amsterdam)
Press release just came out an hour ago. We're all still trying to understand the details :D
Yeah my guess would be you'd get 500 x $14.75 = $7375 worth of UMG shares at IPO price
At the record date you will own:
\- 500 Shares of PSTH at $5.25 a share (NAV)
\- 500 Shares of UMG at $14.75
\- The right to buy 500 shares of the SPARC after the DA is finalized and signed meaning you will know exactly what the company is and the valuation before even thinking of putting money into it.
Don't you also get UMG warrants?
Can't wait to see how this plays out for us Europoors...
Sounds terrible to me. For the $25 PSTH is currently trading at you get $14.75 worth of UMG, which is fine. The remaining $10.25 get you $5.25 worth of PSTH Remainco with no target in sight, so certainly going back to NAV. Leaves $5 for the option to buy SPARC shares somewhen in the next 5 years for a mega SPAC that may not materialize ever.
Not really though. By not selling you still assume your package is worth more than the ~~$25~~ $24 dollar you could get for it now.
This is the most interesting thing i've seen in a while
HOLY MOLY HOLY MOLY HOLY MOLY HOLY MOLY
We really went from panic to euphoria in a few hours.
See you at market open you beautiful tontards
Wait, so if we buy PSTH, what is happening
We have the technology… to confuse the hell out of everyone.
Guys, what the actual fuck is this. Like seriously, what the fuck.
Still trying to wrap my head around WTF is going on with this PSTH transaction. Seems unprecedented. What I've got so far:
- PSTH commons will essentially "split", with roughly 3/4 of the NAV going towards UMG shares (listing on AEX), and the other 1/4 remaining in "PSTH Remainco", which will have $1.5 billion cash to effect another transaction
- Deal is being structured as a stock purchase, not a reverse merger. So I believe no shareholder vote is required to consummate the transaction
- You get one 5-year right per PSTH common to purchase a $20 common for the new "SPARC" vehicle, which isn't a SPAC since it isn't raising capital from investors through an underwriting process, and will instead raise $6.6B - $10.6B through exercise of the aforementioned rights + cash from Pershing and its affiliates. This will also not require shareholder voting to consummate a transaction, and will only start trading publicly once a DA is executed
- Not entirely sure what happens to PSTH's public warrants. Seeing mention of an offer to exercise them cashless
I got no PSTH position, but just want to say that this is WILD.
Ditto! Been fun to follow though, and what Ackman has done here looks pretty damn creative at first glance. Is there precedent for any of this stuff?
None that I know of. Really Wild West stuff here. It’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out, and if any other SPACs follow his lead (my guess is not for a while, if ever…this is a unique SPAC and a very unique deal).
What happens to my LEAP calls?
SPARC’s structure has been designed to allow SPAR holders to avoid incurring the opportunity cost of capital of a typical SPAC, as the SPARs will not be exercisable, and holders will not be able to acquire shares in SPARC, until a definitive agreement has been signed. The SPARC Sponsor will also benefit by not having any time pressure associated with the typical two‐year SPAC commitment period.
BILL JUST TRIPLE DUNKED ON EVERYONE.
THE AGE OF SPARCS ARE HERE
SPACS ARE DEAD
LONG LIVE SPARCS
Previously wanted to invested into VIH but looking at how coinbase sky dive makes me having many thoughts. Any suggestion?
PSTH and quick
[PSTH Press Release](https://pstontine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/PSTH-Press-Release-6.4.2021.pdf)
Pretty bananas stuff. They really do have the technology
He’s bringing spacs back!
OMG we own a double spac !
Edit: A triple spac!
Cerebrum not processing...cerebrum only knows "All SPACs change tickers after merger..."
Waiting for some smarter folks to ELI5 the deal mechanics lol!
Bill just tweeted about tontards and a press release in 30 minutes.
Can't believe he said Tontard 🤣😂
Boomer gotta boom
This is apparently how you win the stonk market in 2021. Tweets about Doge, Apes, and Tontards. Love this guy.
When you think about it, it was pretty funny in hindsight.
A record label and a gym.
But you know, Starlink!
It’s not a record label, it’s an icon;
It’s not a gym, it’s a lifestyle.
UMG does print money tho. But not sure if i want a value play vs growth.
Adam Aron the AMC CEO praising Mudrick in an interview, maybe the apes might realise and actually do some research on MUDS and see it’s a SPAC instead. Amazing how quickly FUD spreads. I don’t even know why the two are related but this is stock market 2021 where anything goes..
Well nice knowing you all. Psth was my last chance at a nice life. I’ll be moving into the whatever cardboard box I can find behind the Wendy’s dumpster.
Sorry to hear that bro.
Did you went with options or something.
No. Just opportunity costs. I’ll hold now I guess.
Tontard fam hang in there
[Great Twitter thread on UMG](https://twitter.com/spacman17/status/1400640748618387459?s=21)
Chinese stocks are about to become volatile, due to Biden ban on some Chinese companies. This may bode well for SPACs as money need to move around.
Those poor Bitcoin people.
I guess a welcome to the world of SPAC investing is in order.
investing in corn is still better than spacs
Corn fed inbread, I love it!
Lol better than living in Wendy dumpster investing in spacs
I didn’t ban you
U are good human being. Dont change 😝
Maybe take the fucking hint mate.
Do people actually get banned from this sub other than the occasional racist
Cash gang gang what are you guys eyeing now???
Will be big
FTCV very attractive at current price
OCA rumored Kin Insurance
FINM is run by an M&A machine
If I had cash I’d look at FTOC and SSPK, I think both has some potential and haven’t run yet
I might have to leave this sub, the harassment and bullying is starting to take a toll on my mental health
<3 <3 <3 <3
Can't get harassed and bullied if you don't post every half hour.
Oh Lass, However will we cope!
You and adatausb are the darlings of this sub, what would we ever do without you two fine gentlemen?
Please don’t. We need opposing viewpoints.
I hate to say it but this is true. And she's trying.
For the rest of us, Its the 3 months straight of financial losses taking the toll
Buddy it’s been 4 months and counting
We suddenly have an opening for the position of Spac Savior thanks to Mr. Ackman's sudden departure.
Who's going to take a crack at it next? Betsy Cohen? Bill Foley?
Don't count ol' Bill out, we haven't even seen a DA yet.
25% of my money is on Betsy. Will be more if HZON DAs.
Got a bit on Chinh Chu
Harry You and team DMY team on DMYQ and ADMY (to come)
Got my money on Makram Azar of GFX. Says all the right things and shits on flying taxis and "gen tomorrow" companies.
DirectTV executives laughing their asses off at all of us
I mean it’s still trading 100% above NAV while every other SPAC has been clinging to NAV
Imagine this, "Michael Klein VII SPAC In Talks with Rivian", then 2 months later, "Michael Klein VII SPAC to Take DirecTV Public"
You know who would be hilarious?
A snake oil salesman with a gym and chicken legs
Is it too early to ask what color lambo?
Which brand cardboard box is the warmest?
Lmao there’s something so fun about seeing you twist the knife. It’s such a departure from your normal niceties.
Ah, they are fun, they ran us over with that brigade that one weekend, I think they expect it... I think they can handle the snark. Also, the known revenue projections are better than SRNG, TBH. lmfao. It wouldn't be funny if they were in real trouble. Although a few might might be. Maybe we'll get some more good memes this weekend out of the deal.
No. BOWX is only buying a certain percentage of WeWork. The valuation would then be that 700 million cap divided by the percentage of the company that BOWX actually bought.
Theirs a beginner thread in the sidebar 🙂
Enjoy your time in r/SPACs, good community. Been through some pain the past 2 months but have been doing fairly well recently. Definitely not the old days when spacs only went up but we’re back to having good deals do well
There’s an ass hat in the thread 🙂
Strange that c*nt is banned but most profanity isn’t, just joking tho
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No. Bowx is buying only a portion of the company.
Shares get added when the company merges. So if a SPAC is taking a 15% stake in a company, the combined company will have a 100/15 times more shares shares when the merger is complete.
Welcome! This information is fairly 101 level surface information. Please refer to the FAQ first. We don't intend to shun you, it's just... it gets to be a bit of a Q&A and u/everlastingdeath2.0 will ask again in 10 minutes anyway.
The current owners (private, not public) of WeWork get a majority amount of the shares once they go public. Insiders, sponsors, SPAC holders, and the PIPE (if there is one) get the rest of the shares.
News from two weeks ago, should've been a pretty clear clue: going public+selling to an American investor instead of through IB+ 10% stake at 30B+ valuation
"In short, the Paris-headquartered entity “is analyzing the opportunity of selling 10% of UMG shares to an American investor.”"
Wait...Is there a problem with the pudding?
Pudding turned out to be greasepaint and hair styling gel.
Whos selling PSTH bags first thing tomorrow?
I’m looking to buy in if it dips hard enough
If everyone's doing that I'll probably be buying.
Good luck. Spac is dead and PSTH is the last straw. See you at NAV in no time!
Reasonable disagreements are what makes a market. Good luck to you as well!
Ill be ready to scoop them up in the morning, I missed the sale this afternoon.
I might re enter when this falls below 20. And good luck to you if you decide to enter because you're gonna need it
No way this ever gets remotely close to $20.
Spacs are dead. Wake up.
The good ones aren’t. Sofi, stem, Plby etc
literally everyone who owns it
UMG was valued at 36b very recently. It's a disaster with an overinflated price tag. Little growth potential as well.
What happened, Bill?!?
I feel very bad for all the people who quietly held for 6+ months, expecting a payday. I don't feel bad at all for the PSTH shills like u/Gamma_Wolf_69 who invaded this subreddit a month ago to talk constant shit and clog things up. Especially on the weekends.
While I have no idea what will happen with PSTH, I looked up gamma_wolf_69 to see what they were thinking about it. That dude was all over this thread talking shit and brigading. His last comment : "I sold half yes and i regret my whole involvement with psth. I held for 8 months."
>Goldman Sachs’ annual “Music in the Air” study is widely recognized in the music industry as an optimistic but authoritative survey of the business — and yet again, it will make Universal Music Group very happy, as it has valued the company at a whopping $53 billion ahead of its IPO, expected this fall.
What is the number for UMG debt? You've spammed several threads saying it but I see no source or number. The WSJ quotes 40B deal with enterprise value around 43B including cash and debt.
Playing devils advocate, Tencent’s enormous influence in China is well worth the price of selling them a stake at a discount.
Interesting take 👌
The entire company wasn't sold, Tencent bought a stake at that valuation. Which isn't bad when you compare it IPOs and recent SPAC deals where the valuation is 2x the last private valuation.
Reminder from PSTH prospectus:
"Unlike other blank check companies, our Sponsor is not being afforded the opportunity to purchase 20% of our stock at a nominal price; our Sponsor will, instead, purchase the Sponsor Warrants at their fair market value as described above, with an exercise price of $24.00 per share, as will our independent directors for their Director Warrants. Our Sponsor and our independent directors will only participate in the value of our company if our stock price is at least 20% higher than the initial offering price in this offering (if such warrants are then-exercisable). Our Sponsor and directors are paying fair market value (at the date of this offering) for the opportunity to realize any such gain."
Ackman's not making any money unless the stock goes above $24, right? He's a smart guy so I'm sure he's thought about the valuation accordingly. Plus this seems like the kind of steady target that institutions would gravitate towards and will probably be included in S&P500. It's not a #1 box office sort of deal but could be more like an Utz.
Utz's market cap is 2.14 billion and the deal was struck at less than a billion. This is a $40 billion transaction, currently trading at $50 billion. PSTH isn't going anywhere for a very, very long time.
Tencent Music Entertainment has a $26B market cap and has moved up and down a lot, I dont see why the same kind of volatility is possible for PSTH.
this ain't it chief
Any stock can be volatile but Tencent has extra China volatility
Looks like I’m back to getting downvoted even for useful comments, and people on this sub wonder why I go bad. Everyone here pretty much hates me
Every sub needs a heel, I appreciate ya
U did just post a link to some random girls insta claiming it was urs
That was me but I immediately got some threatening messages so I took it down
pretty crazy to think she is an engineer, travel blogger, photographer, and day trader
Also happen to have a boyfriend and a husband at the same time 🧐🤨
Plausible in the WSB "wife's boyfriend" kinda way
could be entirely off base but not too long ago she? referred to another women as a "female", when I decided likely a catfish.
Yeah I can wear multiple hats
Lol. I truly loled at this comment
Not in PSTH anymore as I sold at 25 the first run up to move into other things.
I think it is a good target but a little high on the valuation, considering Tencent bought 10% at 30 billion ev this year and 10% at 3 billion last year.
You also get almost half of vevo , and a small stake in Spotify. It will be interesting to see how much of the company PSTH gets and how much cash on hand for acquisitions is left over. It’s going on the watchlist for sure pending the details.
That 30B euros
How can you compare? Tencent did the deal in March 2020. What happened then? Covid, markets crashed. Tencent took the massive risk to buy the dip.
I think Bark recovers some tomorrow, the sell off today seemed just due to typical ticker change delay
Yep, nothing’s changed. Valuation still makes sense.
Edit: and i think someone mentioned warrants is back up
I just started watching SSPK. Buy now or wait for the merger? Im hoping for a nice dip.
Yeah super interested in that one. Dont know when go get in. Any guidance folks ?
Check out the DD I wrote if you want! I think it’s at an incredible price point right now, and I’ve since tripled my position. I could talk about it all day but don’t want to clutter the board.
Do you think leading up to the merger completing or after the price will dip?
Literally no one knows that, so I can’t give you a good answer. Short time-price movement relies on too much to predict.
What I can tell you is that I believe the price will run up to fair value. I don’t know if it will take days, or weeks, or months, but I believe that SSPK will eventually increase. To make sure I don’t miss out on that increase, I got in as soon as I thought it was undervalued. That’s what I recommend you do - don’t try to time a dip.
I'll admit, part of me was hoping all that Plaid+Stripe talk was true, but... you know, I'm not *entirely* disappointed, here. I'm really going to be looking for that slide deck, but I wouldn't be surprised if PSTH has a reversal tomorrow.
Plaid + Stripe was always a ridiculous dream lol
Idk if tomorrow but I agree. The churn from retail hoping for starlink to value investors buying the largest fish in the music industry for a fair price (as it appears to be) could take a little bit, but I’m more than happy to hold this one.
I actually don't think Ackman found a bad target at all, but it's not sexy, and it's not going to explode higher, which is what that completely unreasonable shareholder base was absolutely certain would happen upon target.
And at $25, it's valued at $50B based on the news release, which is probably about fair value, meaning PSTH is not going to "TeH mOoN" at all.
I don't think it's a bad target either, just bad valuation and little chance of explosive growth.
UMG was valued at 36b earlier this year. Morgan Stanley places the value between 29b-43b.
Not a good deal. And people were expecting a great target **and** a great deal.
Not a good deal for ....retail over fair value. But maybe that's why there is incentive to hold those in the first place 🤔
A big part of my "sell PSTH" argument was that it would be near impossible for Ackman to acquire an aircraft carrier & simultaneously value it in a way that gives shareholders a big "pop", yet doesn't \*\*\*\* over the target company based on the original $20 cash pool. Yet here we had a SPAC trading 25% over cash. It's why I sold PSTH (twice) & never looked back.
Do you feel like that's probably the case for most of the larger spacs ? Seems harder for a large target to moonshot
All things being equal, I think that the larger the SPAC the more advanced the company likely is & the more efficient the pricing is probably going to be to reality (or over-shooting reality), which would decrease the odds for "mooning". And specifically in this case, PSTH is several multiples larger than any other currently searching SPAC.
There is more expectation, for sure, which leads to more disappointment.
PSTH - Here's some fundamentals
In 2020, UMG posted total revenues of €7.43bn ($8.40bn), with
an EBITDA of €1.49bn ($1.68bn). That represented an impressive annual
EBITDA margin of 20%.
That's an absurd EBITDA multiple
i’m hoping that this turns into the not sexy play that actually makes money cause right now i’m mildly gutted by this one. no one expected this that’s for sure. damn. my biggest holding down 6% AH
damnit bill i only had one more month to get long term capital gains. now i get no gains
Honestly as somebody with zero position in PSTH, I like UMG as a target. I’ll do some DD tonight but I may potentially open a position in it, especially if it sells off like it appears it will.
I'm hoping the kiddies dump it & if so I'll put some of my SRNG in it
I grabbed PSTH at $21 and change after-hours. I knew the "It's not Stripe!" mouthbreathers would sell off.
Thanks. I figured it was so close to NAV there was no real risk.
damn congrats, no idea what doofus would’ve sold this at 21 that’s nuts
Dropped all the way to $21.60.
i’m so glad i didn’t see that. my cost average is 25.60. it’s my biggest holding, i’d have a heart attack. i’m definitely averaging down though. might sell out of something to scoop more. i think this is an overreaction/not really that awful of a target the more i think of it
It recovered to almost $24 by close. Great short term trading opportunity.
yeah i was busy with work and missed it. damn you gainful employment lol. UMG is actually an elephant, makes money and will be bought up by institutions as well. I think this really isn’t a bad deal. It could be A LOT worse