T O P
zhoushmoe

Non-paywall: https://archive.ph/DXjHe


[deleted]

[удалено]


PillarOfVermillion

They will convince themselves it's working by fervently denying reality though.


NomadicScribe

This would explain the recent wave of bubble-deniers posting on this sub. One of them was implying that posting about an economic crisis would create an economic crisis. I thought it was really odd. But it makes a twisted sense when you consider that a lot of them probably believe in some form of investor hopium along the lines of saying things like "manifest your reality" or "grindset mindset". If the market is dried up, the only "grind" left is trying to find a sucker more gullible than you were.


CrayonUpMyNose

Seems like all the suckers already bought in 2021, so they're running out of them. Same as every bubble.


28carslater

I agree with you but if 2021 taught us anything it is a great majority of buyers demonstrate less than intelligent purchase behavior. The different in 2023 is that risk is back on as the Fed isn't \[publicly\] buying everything so all of the fantasy valuations and paper are coming back to Earth as they should be - but the lemming nature of buyers has not gone away. There are still going to be qualified retail buyers willing to go house poor to pay full ask or bid things up while the pros and funds slowly gobble up the as-is wholesale properties.


Jimq45

What are we talking about here? Besides unforeseen circumstances, which I will grant do happen of course, why would anyone need to convince others to remain in their home? Especially those who bought there home in the last several years at the lowest rates in history. Are we primarily taking about the small minority of people who are forced into selling and/ or the .01% who bought 5 airbnbs and/or the .02% of flippers. I’m not seeing how this minority means anything? I’m open to understanding your thought process, but this sub is really about primary residences as opposed to investment properties correct? I mean houses don’t have a market value until they are being sold. A home is a place to live. I buy a car and it depreciates $1000s just by driving off the lot but I’m not making a u-turn to sell it because it’s worth 10% less then I payed in a day. My wife’s engagement ring was worth ~10-15k less as soon as I walked out of the store, I didn’t turn around and sell it. My boat was worth 20k less after my first ride. I can go on. All big purchases are worth less almost right away. Some increase by holding long term, some don’t. Actually RE is the only large purchase that has actually increased in value over every 10 year period. So, while I wouldn’t anyway, I don’t understand the idea that there will be a wave of selling and people need convincing to, bag hold. LoL. They are just….living in their home.


[deleted]

It never works? How’s that?


realdevtest

The convincing their peers part works. The keeping prices higher doesn’t.


sneakywill

Realtors are so utterly useless it blows my mind that we still give them any societal value.


Embarrassed_Field_84

They literally paywall the MLS by getting a license. Why literally just having access to sales data is something I should need a license for is just beyond me.


HarmonyFlame

Just more gatekeeping from the powers that be like anything else.


7FigureMarketer

When your primary job is jumping in front of transactions for an undeserved massive commission, you're going to say whatever it takes.


unicornbomb

1. denial 2. anger 3. **bargaining <-- you are here.** 4. depression 5. acceptance Welcome to the third stage of grief, hoomers! That anger stage sure was a doozy.


noveler7

There's some leftover anger still, but it's funny that a lot of it has evolved into rationalizing, minimizing, and optimistic predictions (like that the 30-year mortgage rate will drop back to the 4s soon). They used to say "Your forecasts are wrong; look how good things are!" earlier this year. Now that the market has rolled over, it's "Things aren't that bad; besides, look at our forecasts!" Depression this summer when things don't turn around?


Busy_Screen3096

Still a lot of anger lol. They hate holding deez bags.


zzrryll

Explains their drop off in posts to this subreddit.


cryinginthelimousine

You don’t go through the stages in order, and sometimes they repeat.


realdevtest

2023 real estate investors are gonna be like “HODL!!!!!!”


someoneexplainit01

They have to lie to their clients or they would make no money. Realtors are completely unnecessary, they literally do nothing, and there is no reason in todays technological age to hire one. Just list your home on the MLS with various services for a set fee.


seventhirtyeight

Have you bought or sold a house without one?


PghLandlord

i have many times (both with and without) Realtors do serve a purpose but never have i seen it br worth anywhere close to 6-7% of the sale price. maybe $1500-2k flat


ComingInSideways

Yes this. A flat 2k fee, as **for the most part** a $200k sale and a $2 mill sale takes the same effort.


Crazy-Inspection-778

Nah let them set and advertise their own rates, the market will decide how much we should be paying them


johnconnor777

They serve a purpose in the same way that a flea or tick serve a purpose: to suck the blood of the host without giving anything in return


PghLandlord

that is not fair at all. I'm not a realtor but I've done lots of transactions and it is ridiculous to suggest that realtors add zero value. But I guess this is REBubble where thousands of sad and poorly informed people make ridiculous claims based on their feelings.


Crazy-Inspection-778

Zero value is an understatement, but you have to admit they provide far less value than they’re getting paid. Average home price is over $400k, you think they provide $12,000 worth of value each? Nah. Not in today’s market when you can shop and look for comps all on your own, get under contract in a week and close in a month. They’ll go the way of the stock broker eventually, just a matter of breaking down the archaic roadblocks. The main value they used to provide was their connections. You don’t need them for that anymore, the internet is your connection to buyers/lenders/the MLS etc.


someoneexplainit01

Yes, of course I have. So have lots of friends and acquaintances. You see the house, you make an offer. You can download the same contracts that the realtors use from the internet. Its just not complicated, money is money, and honestly the realtor is just going to ask you for proof of funds or a check for the deposit and hand it to the other realtor/seller. You can obviously do that yourself. The offer contracts are super simple, you just put in the address and check the boxes. Here's the thing: the title company does all the work. You need one of those, you need title insurance, and you need a solid contract. This is why you NEED a title company. If you were super rich you could just buy it cash, that's fine, but if there were issues with the title you would end up in court. Title insurance protects you from that. The title company does this every day for every realtor for a set fee. The realtor does absolutely nothing but list your home on the MLS. You can pay a flat fee to several companies to do that for you. From $65 to $500 depending on the market/state. You can also put a sign in your front yard and just wait for someone to see it if you hate technology. Its just not very complicated.


seventhirtyeight

Great response, I hate using agents. I'm gonna try the next purchase without. Thank you.


[deleted]

[удалено]


someoneexplainit01

You write the offer contract, you can put any percentage in there you want for the selling realtor. Why you would give them the whole 6% I have no idea, that's just giving away money for nothing.


[deleted]

[удалено]


someoneexplainit01

You can write any contact you want, the seller can accept. The seller could have a separate contract with the realtor, that's not your problem. The selling realtor is only entitled to 3%, however you can put 1.5, 2, or whatever you want. They can counter offer. Its really not your problem, but you know the realtor will have addressed that in the counter if they don't then they are even dumber than we thought. The issue is when the realtor doesn't give the contract to the seller because they don't like you not having a realtor, and that's against the law but it happens all the time. I thought the seller is the one who pays their realtor. All commissions come out of the proceeds from the sale, so all commissions are technically paid by the seller. However, that reduces the walk away amount for the seller and if you can negotiate lower commissions they can sell the house for less and pay less commissions. We're talking $20,000-50,000 for most realtor commissions and that is serious money for anyone. I'm all for realtors, but paying someone $50,000+ to put your home on the MLS just doesn't make any logical sense. Sure, one or two grand for a commission would make sense, but tens of thousands is insanity. The title company does the closing and all the actual work, so why do they get a much lower flat fee than the realtor?


champagne_of_beers

I just used one and it was the best thing I've ever done. I can see them being useless for renting an apartment but for buying/selling a house it was a no brainer.


Responsible_Ad_2181

Finally someone says it!!! You can buy and sell a house on your own. It’s not that hard. Americans are just lazy and want convenience. While the realtor gets the cut for listing it. They aren’t value adding anymore!


Embarrassed_Field_84

What are some of those services just curious?


someoneexplainit01

flatfee.com


vrajp98

Buyers don’t buy a house until it’s selling for 2019 prices


ReconOly

2012 prices


vrajp98

Even better. 2012 prices or we are not buying homes


crims0nwave

Good luck 🙀


Megalitho

Realtor logic: DURRRR...


BabyLlama-Drama

Prices will continue to rise until [sentiment gets better](https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/national-housing-survey). Love some real estate industry doublespeak in the morning.


Happy_Confection90

I like how these articles claiming that prices will continue to rise no longer bother even making a token effort to justify that claim


asgphotography

“Real estate is never a bad investment”


JoshDoesDamage

Hate to break it to you and the rest of this subreddit but it really isn’t. Things won’t be as immediate as a lot of people coping think, but one way or another, until the housing supply issue is addressed (it never will be), these home values and equity will eventually trend green so long as the people dumb enough to get into buying right now can stay afloat. Once this is all said and done we’ll have a new r/REBubble and can do it all over again.


youdidntwanttohearit

Tell that to anyone in Florida within 20 miles of a coastline in about 12 months. Holding cost is real.


JoshDoesDamage

It absolutely is. I’m an LO and a lot of my business is in Florida. I love this sub but a lot of the doomsaying here is wishful. You’re talking about coastline Florida property and holding cost lol. People in those homes aren’t really feeling the pain and their values will jump right back up within 5-10 years if not exceed Covid highs. I’m of the opinion we’re entering a new era of the housing market with significantly more informed consumers. If people start buying up the second rates move the opposite direction because they think they’re smart…values blast right past Covid highs. It would take a significantly long amount of time in a recession to reset things as needed. Powell has already made it clear we want to act quick and strongly.


CrayonUpMyNose

I know people who don't feel the pain but I also know they are a tiny minority. Truly informed consumers know that the demographic trend for the next couple of decades is boomers passing away and younger generations below replacement rate. The only thing currently keeping the market afloat is immigration but what's going to happen to that when a recession makes immigration a lot less attractive? Sorry, not seeing us revisiting pandemic highs anytime soon, maybe ever. After adjusting for inflation of course.


JoshDoesDamage

I sincerely hope you’re right. It’s all up in the air right now though, and unfortunately I think your direction puts a little too much faith in humanity. You forget that outside this sub the average American is still foaming at the mouth to buy a home. In most cases they just literally can’t right now. This has happened in the past. It’s happening now. It’s a cycle.


Usedtabe

Didn't Nobel prize winner Robert Schiller prove it was a bad investment using over a 100 years of RE data?


Professorpooper

Beatings will continue until moral improves.


libertasi

Prices always go up even when they go down


Seethi110

Here’s the thing though, are realtors currently desperate enough that we can benefit? Meaning, are they at the point where they might lower their commission fee and negotiate the seller to pay closing costs?


FUCKYOUINYOURFACE

I'd rather deal with a sleazy used car salesman than a sleazy realtor.


Happy_Confection90

Well of course. The average car price isn't just south of 400k so the car sales person is fleecing you for much less commission.


SatanicLemons

Historically “cooling markets” could be .05%, .2%, or even as high as 1% appreciation years. The argument there would be that those would be negative *real* appreciation years because inflation is almost never that low. That being said the biggest mistake during these times has been to evaluate what is going on from a traditional perspective. We went from “there’s never been a mortgage rate lockdown, and that probably can’t even happen because…” to “this is probably what the beginning of a mortgage rate lockdown looks like” in no more than 3-4 months. A bunch of stuff that has never happened before happened, and now the results are likely also going to be stuff that has never happened before. I’m sure some markets that are high income and still insanely low inventory could see 1-3% appreciation next year, but if the average market goes up even 1% I think we actually get closer to a real crash event in the next few years, which is not the slow equity loss I typically have believed in thus far.


immibis

They're not wrong if inflation will be 50%


Libertarian_Florida

Honestly it seems like they are correct, at least here in central FL. Prices are not falling. I went to an open house 2 weeks ago for a 4br 1980s home that smelled like cat piss listed at 625k. No offers and they still won't lower the price lol.


barcabob

This is a bag holder who won’t give up the bag. It’s a joke. But patience, capitulation always occurs.


Vanman04

In markets where the bubble barely happened I wouldn't expect much movement.


Libertarian_Florida

Bruh, I said Florida lol. We appreciated 200-300% in two years.


Vanman04

You said central Florida. I just plopped a pin down in Gainesville and the market there looks like it barely budged https://www.redfin.com/city/6487/FL/Gainesville/housing-market


Libertarian_Florida

There's no way that is correct Many homes I look at were purchased for 250-350k a couple years ago and now asking 500-600k. They go pending and when I see it a month later it went for the asking price or maybe just 10k under. I'm not in Gville btw.


Current-Ticket4214

THE JOB REPORT


rulesforrebels

Prices will slowly decline but there won't be a crash, not only will the economy be in the toilet but nobody wants to sell because they have a low interest rate or because they know they'll then have to be a buyer in a market with limited inventory. Things are going to pull back slightly and go sideways but tis possible prices could even go up, especially somewher like florida


noveler7

Price-wise, things were [slow and steady in 2008, too.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Xdx1)


rulesforrebels

there also wans't a quick crash it was drawn out over 3 or 4 years


Screamimgmonkey

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS.


NYGiants181

One word.. Foreclosures.


ajquick

Prices continue to rise in 2023 as money loses its value and buying power.


Competitive_Move9923

Supply and demand. As we got over 2 million immigrants last year and it’s looking like we will have 3.5 million this year yet only 680,000 homes were built with a population increase (including immigrants) of 9 million in the same two years. Supply and demand.