Vaccine Statistics Mic Drop
By - slo_bored
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Can we do this math but with me winning the lottery?
U have a 1 in 100 Million chance plus or minus a couple million of winning the lottery. There, Done.
So you're telling me there's a chance?
More like 1 in a billion...but yes, you have a chance Larry!!
So go get the FUCKING ticket!
I've said it before and I'll say it again. If I had all the money my wife spent on the lottery, it would be like I hit the lottery.
Larry?...\*runs around\* LAARRRYYYY!?
Those are I.O.U.'s. That's as good as money. Go ahead and add it up, every cent's accounted for.
Look, see this? That's a car. 275 thou. (might wanna hang onto that one)
haha, I was just about to put that! so glad I looked!
Here, maybe you should wear these extra gloves... my hands are getting kinda sweaty
Jokes on you I just bought 5 tickets
But they are all the same numbers.
5 times the winnings
Alright alright alright!
Of dating her? 1/175,000,000 chance give or take a billion. So yes, there is a chance
Sure thing! Since you didn't buy any tickets, the odds of you winning are exactly 0.0000%. However, if you do buy a lottery ticket to some of the bigger lotteries then you're more likely to get hit by lightning on the way there AND hit once again on the way back than winning the ticket.
I knew 7 people who were struck by lightning while holding hands and on acid. So, apparently, if you pick your numbers while on acid and while holding hands with 7 people, your odds of winning improves.
Since you brought it up, I wonder how many unvaccinated people also play the lottery? These people who essentially think they have a better chance of winning billions of dollars than they do of catching a highly infectious virus. 🤔
Dude, they are all playing the lottery one way or another.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
You have a 1 in 1 chance of having to go to work tomorrow
Go get your lottery vaccines.
I just bought a ticket today actually, I rarely play to give others a chance. According to my math I should be worth 415m in an hours time.
See, normally if you go one-on-one with COVID you got a fifty/fifty chance of winning. But Delta is a genetic freak, and it's not normal! So you got a 25 percent at best to beat it! ! And then you add vaccines to the mix? You-the chances of living drastically go down. See, the 3-Way at USA, you got a 33 and a third chance of winning. But Delta! Delta got a 66 and two thirds chance of winning, cuz Vaccine KNOOOWS he can't beat Delta, and the vaccine not even gonna try.
I'd show this to my antivax mom but her response would be that those numbers are lies and they’re hiding the VAST number of people dying from the super dangerous vaccine while simultaneously embellishing the number of covid deaths.
Does she have an explanation as to why she thinks people would do that? Just curious.
Because they make money by giving the vaccines... Duh
From some of the DMs I've gotten, I thought this was obvious but
And how much money is the economy losing because of covid? Its a lot more than any money that could be made from the vaccines.
I got nothing.
...... but aren't the vaccines free?
Ultimately someone is paying for it, which is the government and the Corp is making bank from it In their mind
government is paying companies a LOT of money for those free vaccines.
Under the pandemic supply deal, Pfizer is charging the US $19.50 per dose.[[source]](https://www.the-sun.com/news/3049901/how-much-does-pfizer-covid-vaccine-cost/)
This means that if *every US citizen* got the Pfizer vaccine (330,000,000 x 19.50) Pfizer would make a *gross income* of $6.4 Billion dollars. Again, if *every citizen* got a Pfizer vaccine.
In 2019 Pfizer's *revenue* was **$51.8 Billlion.**
You're telling me that this global pandemic that has cost the world untold *trillions* of dollars, and *4.6 million* deaths- is all for a small bottom line bump of less than 10%?? I'm no fan of capitalism, but even I'd imagine that's a bit far fetched.
>You're telling me that this global pandemic that has cost the world untold trillions of dollars, and 4.6 million deaths- is all for a small bottom line bump of less than 10%?? I'm no fan of capitalism, but even I'd imagine that's a bit far fetched.
Bottom line is net. You're not taking out any associated licensing fees from bioNtech or any manufacturing costs. The bottom line bump is considerably less than you calculated.
Yes, i was being *very* back-of-the-envelope generous.
Honest question coming from a sane country: how does your mother avoid covid? Does she just sit around all day not interacting with anyone, covid free? How does she not catch the virus?
I will answer that on his behalf via assumptions. She walks around with no mask and live her life with a smug face. She thinks her immune system is top notch even though she's overweight.
Probably a safe assumption, unfortunately. Last week I actually talked to someone who refuses the vaccine, but realizes that means they need to avoid going out, mask up when you do and keep distance, etc. He was even criticizing the vaccinated people who don’t do any of that stuff. I was starting to think I found a relatively sane one, until he started talking about ivermectin.
This comment was a confusing rollercoaster. Had me in the first half. Was sure this dude had a severe medical exception. Nevermind.
Everyone thinks they're the 7 in 8, until they're the 1 in 8.
Honestly it's fucking weird here. I have a good amount of my work place unvaccinated because they're stupid and they're just.. not getting it. Like they aren't being especially careful, our job is customer facing in an optometrist office but up until someone brought it in here we went the entire time without a single case.
Of course once it got brought in here 3 of them ended up in the hospital and one is currently on a vent.
Fucking around and finding out.
Fucking Around and Finding Out
Until it happens having it not happen is proof that it doesn't happen.
people who believe this kind of crap aren't doing anything to avoid it because they believe that COVID is somewhere between a complete hoax and "just a cold"
To those people, CoVid doesn't exist.
Maybe she caught it and just didn't know.
It's a very valid possibility.
Never argue with an idiot. They don't know what math is.
Burger King came out with the 1/3 pounder to compete against McDonald's 1/4 pounder. It was a failure since people thought they were getting less.
People are stupid. Edit: and apparently so am I. It was A&W. My bad.
...which stands for Ambewgurs and Wootbeewr.
Thanks for a real lol! Hilarious!
Sorry I thought we were just naming burger spots.
Am I doing this right?
Should have called it the 2/6 pounder.
Or save some money and make it the 1/12 pounder. That's three times what the clown is giving you!
The 4/12 burger is bigger
Ok except it was A&W not Burger King .the fraction issue is legit though.
Ive heard that story as well.
Ive also heard it was an A&W exec trying to justify why there sales were so bad. "Oh Amercians are dumb. Our burger is bigger therefore better."
They didnt seem to count in that people just liked McDonalds more than A&W
Was the opposite, I remember reading about this and in their blind testing people preferred the A&W burger. Though it's possible that not knowing which was which, some people just picked the bigger burger.
Honestly when I was in high school I would fuck with AnW daily. They were built into a KFC so it technically counted as chicken.
3 smullar then 4 dum dum
That's right, because steel is heavier than feathers.
They will just say the numbers are wrong and they have a 99.8% chance of survivability.
A wise man told me never argue with fools, cause people from a distance can’t tell who is who
Is she the idiot? Her math is way off.
Her math is correct. Her methodology isn’t though.
Why the math is right:
P = population of US = 330M
C = total cases of COVID = 41M
D = total deaths from COVID = 670k
Probability of having contracted COVID
= C : P
= 41M : 330M
= 1 : 8.04
Probability of death after contracting COVID
= D : C
= 0.670M : 41M
= 1 : 61.2
Pv = population of fully vaccinated = 173M
Cv = total cases contracted by vaccinated = 12.9k
Dv = total deaths of vaccinated = 2k
Probability of vaccinated having contracted COVID
= Cv : Pv
= 0.0129M : 173M
= 1 : 13,400
Probability of dying after vaccination
= Dv : Pv
= 0.002M : 173M
= 1 : 86,500
So all her math checks out.
The methodology has problems because the amount of time that COVID has been around compared to the amount of time the vaccines have been around is really really different. The correct way to do this is to sample a (random mixed) population within the same timeframe. So her calculations don’t mean much.
Could you provide the correct math please
I mean most of those deaths are in the high age group so I’d think you’d at least want to account for that as well.
Total deaths from COVID-19 643,858
0-17 years 412
18-29 years 3,043
30-39 years 8,634
40-49 years 22,232
50-64 years 106,674
65-74 years 144,020
75-84 years 173,655
85 years and older 185,188
So 609,537 are for people older than 50. So 34,321 are less than 50. Of course, deaths isn’t the only metric to look at. Long term complications should also be studied; I wouldn’t want breathing issues years down the road from catching covid.
At this point the vaccine is already available so just get it. We can crunch the numbers but I’m 100% sure the end result will be vaccinated person far less likely to die or be severely sick compared to an unvaccinated person. That’s true with covid as it is with other diseases that have vaccines. That’s just common sense.
Yeah. My brother had covid last year and lost his sense of taste and smell, tho he never had more than a runny nose. His smell and taste came back, but he said it hasn't been the same since. Everything tastes and smells chemically. No thanks. I don't want that. I'm fully vaccinated and ready for a booster.
> I mean most of those deaths are in the high age group so I’d think you’d at least want to account for that as well.
I completely forgot about that! Vaccine works but I hope this video doesn't give people the impression that they can do whatever they want after they are vaccinated. If you're going clubbing every night without a mask or social distancing, you're going to get covid eventually even if you are vaccinated. People still need to be safe.
Is this going to be on the final exam?
I hope not. That was a lot of numbers. When do you think are 3rd eye is going to grow.
Please tell me you meant ‘our’.
Logic, maths and stats etc are wasted on anti-vaxxers.
Im a doctor and very pro vaxx
But she’s messing up some of the stats. For instance there’s more breakthrough cases than she stated, the cdc is only keeping track of those breakthrough cases that are hospitalized or die.
Yep. Plus shes taking a fixed point in time, when really vaccinated vs unvaccinated rates are changing drasticaly every day.
Furthermore shes assuming a normalised dataset. Which it aint. Vaxxed qnd antivax behave very differently during a pandemic.
Basically, you sont need to be a medical expert to run these numbers. But you DO need to at least have some background in ststistical modelling. Which she clearly doesnt have.
Shes committing the exact same fallacy shes complaining about….
Thank you. Also, she conflates the people who have caught the virus with the probability of catching the virus. She is not doing actual probabilities at all; she is just multiplying numbers that support her argument and calling it an outcome.
She may know "numbers," but she most likely has not taken probability course outside of 6th grade.
truth here (I'm pro-vax). You can't take the people that have caught covid and use that to create a probability of catching covid. That would be like saying if 10/10 people in a room caught covid, then you're chances of catching it are 100% which is not accurate.
can confirm this as well. I'm an ER nurse, most of us are vaccinated (thank God). Many of my coworkers have gotten Covid after the vaccine. None, have gotten sick enough to warrant a hospital visit though.
Yeah I’m all for the vax but this math is absolutely atrocious.
Yeah, I stopped watching about halfway through.
My cousin just had a breakthrough infection that he passed along to me and his girlfriend. All of us vaccinated with Pfizer. All of us were pretty sick (with his division one athlete 23 year old girlfriend needing to go to the ER because of SOB).
However, I firmly believe we would’ve been much sicker had we not been vaccinated. I’ll still get my booster once I’m able to in November.
They prefer faith over logic and that’s not working well in this modern scientific economy we live in. They just get poor and angry
They prefer faith over logic
but worship shills like Ben Shapiro for enabling them to say bullshit like "facts don't care about your feelings" despite him and them having no facts to back their claims
> "facts don't care about your feelings"
Another fact is if you get COVID it doesn't care about your feelings or who you voted for. All it cares is how mushy can it make your lungs.
They don't like hearing facts like that and try to ignore them.
I saw that you mentioned Ben Shapiro. In case some of you don't know, Ben Shapiro is a grifter and a hack. If you find anything he's said compelling, you should keep in mind he also says things like this:
>The Palestinian Arab population is rotten to the core.
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Thank you for your logic and reason.
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Faith doesn’t require any critical thinking
Yeah. It's sad.
I’m not good at numbers, but just (I think) a minor correction - based on what she says 1/61 is the over-the-pandemic chance of dying from COVID *if you contract it* in the U.S., not the chance of dying of it over-the-pandemic in the U.S. *period*. I think this is just a misstatement.
Yeah it also doesn't account for asymptomatic or symptomatic people that got it but never tested. I agree with the sentiment but the stats are skewed
As someone that caught a breakthrough case, I think its really hard to accurately quantify the number of breakthrough cases, but the number is still significantly less.
If I hadnt heard I might've been exposed and didn't know dry cough was a hallmark I wouldn't have thought much of it. It would've been really easy to excuse the cough, fatigue, and stuffy nose for 3 days as allergies or a seasonal cold. Im sure a lot of the "asymptomatic" cases are really just remarkably subclinical and what someone may think was just a seasonal cold and not go get tested for.
the same can really be said about any disease people are exposed to after being vaccinated. If you're not really symptomatic, you're not really "infected"
They're still infected and capable of transmitting the virus though. Having no severe symptoms doesn't necessarily mean you're not putting others at risk. That's why we should stop this shitty mentality of needing to go to work while sick. All that's going to do is ruin other people's day/week if they get it worse than you.
Let's also realize, to add to your point, that a lot of doctors were turning away patients with minimal symptoms and told to return for a test if they persisted a few days. This was common back when tests were hard to get. There probably were people who had it in that batch and got better.
She said near the beginning of the video that the 1/61 chance is the chance of dying if you get covid.
Yeah but then she misspoke when she repeated those numbers.
Yeah, I heard 1/61 chance and I was like - wait, what now? No way there's been 5+ million dead.
She probably just misstated, but its an unfortunate misstatement given the context.
I’m just writing this comment to come back later read all the inevitable anti-vaxx nonsense that will be posted here. Don’t mind me.
A quick scroll down proves how depressingly correct you were.
This sub has a lot lot lot of right wingers on it so it’s always a cesspool on anything that is based on reality.
Yup. You gotta be some kind of a special snowflake to be triggered by reality.
These are the folks who brought us "alternative facts". And “What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening”. Reality *DOES* trigger them. They basically live life like the truth is an Instagram photo and they can just photoshop away all the facts they find unappealing.
\*cracks a boy with the cold ones\*
I believe I'll just join in for the same reason.
*brings a couple 6 packs*
Mind-Sharing: Thought as a Service
Cracks open a cold one
Popping some ivermectin and washing it down
I think they’re drinking, DRINKING Betadine (that orange/red iodine stuff they swab around incisions during surgery)solution now.
Do you even know what’s in that popcorn!?
hold on hold on let me crack open a few beers
the POINT she is making, that you are a lot less at risk being vaccinated, is true. But her “math” and reasoning are very wrong in an embarrassing number of ways that this will serve more as food for anti-vaxxer agenda than change anyone’s minds
I agree. She has one big flaw in the data she received, the # of breakthrough cases, the other stuff is just minor.
You need to compare breakthroughs and those who would have contracted if they didn't vaccinate, to death. Some of those 170M might have never counted in the same category of 41M that tested positive.
Also, the CDC no longer tracks breakthrough cases. Just breakthrough hospitalizations. Plenty of good data points to show how effective the vaccines are (90% in ICUs, 99% of those dying are unvaccinated), but she chose a bad one
Ya completely agree. I was kind of waiting and scrolling down to see a rational comment.. this video is just really basic dumb math that ignores a lot of other stats out there. 1/61 chance of dying from covid is just blatantly wrong and a quick google search and simple math done correctly will show you why and the correct probability. She just simplifies the math till it’s completely meaningless and outright wrong. Good thing she’s “really fucking good with numbers” and she hasn’t taken a proper stats course or even bothered to double check her numbers with the professionals.
Anti vaxxers absolutely watch shit like this and it strengthens their decision knowing that there are morons going along with bunk stats scare tactics as a justification to get the vaccine. This video fucking sucks and so doesn’t Reddit for upvoting this tik tok trash.
yeah LOL when she said "really fucking good with numbers" i knew i was boutta hear some dumb shit
"I'm really good at numbers"
::does some basic division::
Yep.. If we are deleting covid misinformation on reddit... we should delete this too.. She's getting the numbers all wrong.. she's talking about how rare hospitalization of vaccinated people are, not just getting covid at all. Shes mixing it up so bad, its worthless info.
The fact is you are WAY less likely to die from covid if you are vaccinated, but this is still so wrong it should be flagged.
I initially liked the video but started questioning the figures. Is the rate of death really that high? 1 out of 62?
Kinda, but this is not how you analyze risk. You can't tell a 20 year old person they have a 1 and 61 chance of dying if they catch Covid. The age variable is massive and Covid is much worse as the age of the of the person increases. Also, we still don't really know.
Yeah these numbers don't factor in for age or co-morbidities.
Something like approx 2500 people under the age of 49 have died in the states since the beginning of covid, with no other co-morbidities. I believe it's 6% of covid deaths are healthy people.
Checks out. In Washington State, there have been roughly 607,106 cases and 6,981 deaths. That 1 death for every 86.9 cases.
Confirmed cases are estimated to be less than half of actual cases, while deaths are much more rarely uncounted. So if the confirmed ratio is 1:60 we would estimate the real ratio to be more like 1:150. Remember all the asymptomatic spread, because many covid cases go undetected. Hard to die without noticing, so there is just a small attribution error to account for there.
How quickly people forget information. A year ago you would see a flood of comments talking about CFR vs IFR
Guess we need to do it again.
CFR= case fatality rate/ratio, rate of confirmed infections, i.e. covid positive tests. This figure is scary, and will more often than not be confused with IFR like above. Back in early 2020 we saw this on mainstream media when they were reporting a 2-3% fatality rate of catching covid.
IFR = Infection fatality rate/ratio, rate of total infections. Much later this figure started to get shared around and broken into age demographics. Can't remember the numbers but they're an order of magnitude lower than the CFR. Very important distinction.
Several states have done serology antibody tests to find out the true % of the population who has been infected by covid and used that to calculate the IFR.
More like 1 in 100-150 unvaxxed covid cases are fatal. But that figure changes based on different things. For example if hospitals are full it becomes more likely to be lethal as treatment is harder to get. Places with higher mask wearing rates it is less lethal because initial viral loads tend to be smaller and less likely to overrun you so easily. And in vaccinated people it isnt quite known yet but ballpark more like 1 in 500-1000 is fatal (but margin of error still quite high, but not high enough for her 1 in 80k number to be realistic)
Sorry to say this won't change anyone's mind.
That's when Darwinism steps in. We're probably better off as a species without them.
Where is she getting the numbers for breakthrough cases and deaths resulting from breakthrough cases? I haven't seen a reliable source for this and empirically (meaning breakthrough cases I know of, nothing scientific) that 12k and change number seems low. Could be legit, but I'd sure like to check her math.
Full dataset of all deaths and infections since the pandemic began, updated daily:
I pull the latter down into a database and query it to generate charts. Here's an example:
The CDC is tracking them in their website. It's roughly 13,000 at the moment. Tho they do say they have issues with reporting since I think it's 10% of the hospitals are reporting if I read it correctly. It's been a few days
So the number could be higher. But that number includes people who are vaccinated and going to the hospital for treatment, not just dying.
But also how the hell do you have ads on your calculator app?
No built in calculator app for iPad… had to download one for my pro the other day :(
I have heard so many android vs ios arguments over the years. I'm shocked cheap jabs at "At least my tablet has a *calculator*" didn't come up more often.
The technology just isn’t there yet
Also, I believe you can just load up a calculator on a web browser on Google. Bing has this too. Not sure if DuckDuckGo does.
That's just a hassle though.. Instead of a single tap, you'd now have to open Safari, go to google and search calculator. But I get your point.
It’s also not gonna work in an area without wifi or cell coverage to hotspot unfortunately
Try Jeeves. /s
Yeah I read an article about it. Apple said that Steve didn’t like that it was a bigger version of the calculator on the iPhone. They couldn’t redesign it before the release so it was removed. They are still working on a design.
Still working on it? The iPad has been out for 11 years, not counting however long it was in development. That calculator app better be the best damn calculator since the graphing calculator came out
Just wait until apple announces that they designed the all new and improved calculator at wwdc. It's revolutionary. Never have numbers worked this way until apple invented it
She didn’t do it super accurately tho. She’s including all of the pre vaccination statistics as well which doesn’t give an accurate scope of the effect that the vaccine has.
The case and death numbers should be from the time of vaccine implementation
Her lack of statistical comprehension is staggering
For a second I thought this was /r/facepalm
She even says she is really good with numbers…
Right? I thought the top comment would say something like this. This is horrible math. This kind of shit is just going to give anti-vaxxers fuel.
i'm pro vaccine and waiting for my 2nd dose. but she is "rEaLlY NoT FuCkInG GoOd wItH NuMbErS". she missed a fuck ton of variables. You cant just take numbers and put it on the formula.
The more people get vaccinated. %of vaccinated people dying will increase.
This video has been driving me nuts all day. Of course the likelihood that you would contract COVID is going to be much higher over a 2 year period then it would in a 9 month period. Not to mention changes in health precautions/shut downs, the fact that by the time vaccines were made available many people (though it will never be truly measurable) had already contracted COVID and would likely be having less severe symptoms if they contracted it again or our most vulnerable dying from COVID before vaccines were even made available. I believe the point is valid to get vaccinated, but videos like this where someone is claiming to do statistics and just talking angrily to get an invalid and uneducated point across are harmful.
Good intentions and all but holy hell man. I'm not the most informed with how certain covid stats are measured but as someone who knows decent stats, the moment someone tries making inferences from the broadest of stats, you know they've lost it.
Most the people here ate it right up tho. They love some good ole simplified pandering. Kinda like the people they call idiots... lol
She's not calculating odds correctly. You don't calculate the odds based on the existing numbers since they change over time, you also don't compare the odds of getting sick if you have been vaccinated/not vaccinated 1:1 since vaccinations have existed for only a portion of the pandemic.
She's still right that you should go get the fucking shot.
No dude, "she's really fucking good at numbers" /s
This uses numbers and facts to make an argument…..this clearly isn’t going to work.
This girl graduated from my highschool the same year as me. She lost her father to covid this year and it’s absolutely heartbreaking
i’m a sex worker.
i’m refusing to work with anybody who is not vaccinated, denies covid’s existence, or shares anti-vaccine propaganda.
it’s taboo for us to factor **politics** (you know what i mean by that) into sex work, but this is horrifying.
God damn girl. Preach
The weirdo's will just claim she works for sOrOs or some other excuse.
And unsurprisingly Soros, Buffett and the Kochs have been hanging out cordially for years. It’s almost as if he ultra wealthy are playing games with the rest of us.
I hear this so often, the whole “George Soros is so evil” thing. For like the last 15 years,
Honestly I have no idea who he is, other than some rich liberal, and at this point I am too afraid to ask or google it,
I have a feeling she meant breakthrough as in hospitalized or died, which is a bit misleading.
It's still breakthrough if you have mild symptoms but tested positive for COVID, or no symptoms but positive.
661k deaths, 41m positives also makes it a 1.6% chance of death, 1/61 so that's right.
What we really need is the #of ALL breakthrough infections including minor and compare that to deaths, which her point still stands.
Either this video is old or this person is just wrong. As of September 7th, there have been 14,115 breakthrough infections *that resulted in hospitalization or death.* So there have been WAY more than that since the vast majority of breakthrough infections don't result in those things.
This whole video is wildly misleading despite being well intentioned. Which ultimately makes it more damaging than if it wasn't posted at all since it gives fuel to the fire for ant-vaxxers who think they are being lied to.
Me and my dad were fully vaccinated and got covid recently too. I mean we can’t be that unlucky can we?
I am an ER physician. I’ve had 2 fully vaccinated patients come to me covid positive. Hundreds, if not thousands unvaccinated. 2, total. I admit like 3-6 patients each shifts, I see many more walking well. Many of my coworkers have been out from covid (fully vaccinated, in the covid fog that is our ER, vaccinated in December). 1 of my coworkers required admission-she’s immunocompromised. I think it’s a total of 8-9 coworkers out. The odds are very much in your favor if you’re vaccinated.
Thats....not at all how statistics for catching a disease work.....
She's absolutely right generally, but unfortunately is not doing a great job representing these stats - that 1/61 is, according to her, the odds of a COVID positive person dying, not the odds of an unvaccinated person dying, which would actually be that times the 1/8 chance she mentioned before, or a 1/488 chance (still significantly higher than the odds for a vaccinated person, to be clear).
There's also the not insignificant issue that breakthrough cases are tabulated based on hospitalizations (or at least have been previously, it's theoretically possible she's using a source that records all breakthrough cases but I'm not sure one exists currently in the US) so it would be better to compare that 1/13402 number with the odds of being hospitalized while unvaccinated, which would be a better comparison while still making the point well (and, to be absolutely clear, would still obviously be way worse odds for unvaccinated people, given that it's still significantly more likely to die of Covid while unvaccinated than to even be hospitalized while vaccinated).
The real shame is that she's got a very good point and has (based on the end of the video) clearly been effected by this pandemic personally, so she's definitely someone who should be getting this message out there, but using bad stats, even with good intentions, weakens arguments and makes it harder to convince people - we don't need good arguments like this to have holes in them, even if those holes don't disprove the overall point.
Some more math: since so many people are opposed to the vaccine saying 'oh why don't we do what Sweden did and just aim for natural herd immunity?'
Okay. lets assume that the 70% threshold for herd immunity is accurate. That mean's we'd need ~230 million people to have caught covid. If our death rate remains consistent. We'd end the pandemic after about 3.5 million deaths. But there's also the nibbling fact that the death rate would almost certainly NOT remain consistent if the entire country became infected at once. Hospitals would overflow a hundred times over, medical staff would also get sick and many would die causing a permanent vacancy. [As evidenced here,](https://jintensivecare.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40560-021-00527-x) about 9.5% of infections require and ICU bed. So when none are left, those people have a good likelihood to die or suffer extreme long term side effects from oxygen deprivation. So if I'm inclined to be generous maybe half requiring an ICU would still survive. So that puts our death total around 9.7 million to reach herd immunity.
Additionally, if our plan is to throw 220 million to the great Darwin experiment, we've gotta follow evolutionary principles and understand we're giving the virus 220 million chances to mutate. Or, more accurately, because a single case results in about [10^9](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7685332/) virions at peak, the actual number of chances we are gifting covid with would be 2.3x10^17 - Or to show it in a more impactful way:
230,000,000,000,000,000 chances to mutate.
Small note: I used the lesser figures for most estimates because I wanna be *fair*. And as far as the virions, It's far far far far far worse than I outlined here. The only statistic I could find was number at peak. Not the total amount produced of which probably puts the actual number magnitudes higher.
I love this woman. This person with their calculations, intensity, and math is what we need more of. My second moderna shot was five months ago. I just quietly stopped interacting with people who are so stupid they are dangerous, or as they are also known, the unvaccinated.
Can I wife her now?
Stop trying to help the people that don’t want to be helped. Let them die, so tired of trying to convince these morons to take it
The problem is there is an alarming number of people out there who don't believe the reported Covid deaths and case numbers to begin with, and truly believe this is all some kind of conspiracy. You can't argue with or change the minds of people if you can't even agree on the basic numbers, or it they have already decided this is fake news / a conspiracy to control them. Once several months or years have passed with vaccines in the arms of most of the global population, my hope is a high percentage of conspiracy theorists and anti vaccine folks will recognize they were simply wrong and get a vaccine to protect themselves and their community, but I'm not holding my breath. Stubbornness, ignorance , bias and arrogance are just ingrained in too many of these people. More likely they will sweep the vaccine BS they spouted under the rug and move onto the next BS conspiracy.
i need for her to teach me angry math
Showed this to my antivax cousin and he said “those are all fake numbers.” Ok, then what are the “real” numbers?
Her math is way off
1/61 of people dying would be over 5 million deaths in the US. That would be a pandemic over 3x worse than the Spanish flu.
It’s funny, a campaign to get misinformation off Reddit, but only in one direction.
The actual CDC planning IFR estimate is 500/1,000,000 which is 1/2000 for a person aged 18-49. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
I'm vaccinated but this chick's math is all fucked up lmao and this essentially proves nothing she was trying to. If anything this gives more fuel to the anti vaxxers.
The average for the entire country can't be used to calculate any one individual’s chance of dying from COVID. The likelihood that a COVID infection will result in death increases with your age and if you have a pre-existing condition..
Yeah lot of variables involved in this. I was watching football this weekend seeing 100k people in stadiums packed like sardines…almost forgot about COVID for a second.
Her math is wrong though on your chances of dying from covid, is it not?
Her “math” is wrong and misleading across the board. There are sooooo many variables she’s failing to account for that it’s embarrassing.
But she's yelling and seems really sure of herself
She's *reallllly* good with numbers, guys.
"I'm FUCKING GOOD with numbers."
Proceed to completely fuck up the numbers.
I agree with her overall point that your less likely to die if you get vaxxed but "you have a 1 in 61 chance of dying if you're unvaxxed" is cringe.
Comparing all the people who have caught covid over a 17 month sample to people who have caught it "since August" aka 1 month isn't good math.
“Lol why so mad!??! Something something freedom. Something something wuflu”
— antivaxxer probably
For sure estimated cases are far higher than actual cases, due to asymptomatic infections, but that doesn’t take away from the infection rate and death rate of symptomatic COVID. The IFR of COVID will be much lower than the CFR, however the true infection rate of COVID rate will also be higher (as you said). So it’s really only worth looking at symptomatic CFR of COVID, which are horrifyingly high. My main issue with her argument is that it doesn’t really account for age, but as others have said the data that show the vaccines are efficacious should already be enough.
>How am I wrong???
You are wrong here:
>**You're** chances of catching
It is "**your** chances of catching".
So the tweet she's refuting says 99% of people live vaccinated or not. And she goes on a math rampage to prove that it's actually 98.36% (1 in 61) that live if unvaccinated and 99.99 (1 in 86500) if vaccinated for an average of 99.18%.
I can’t believe how many people are responding like her math is anywhere close to accurate.
That's kind of what I was thinking. Like... she's obviously right in her assertion that people need to get vaccinated and the chances of catching covid, getting a severe infection, and/or dying of covid are _massively_ reduced if you're vaccinated (more and more for each step in that process), but the calculations she did aren't at all representative of the claims she made. Makes it kind of hard to believe that she's "really good with numbers".
There is _so_ much nuance that is missed in these back of the napkin calculations - things like delta being significantly more transmissible and deadly than the ancestral strain or alpha variant, the fact that the vaccines have been around for half of the pandemic and the numbers that she's crunching aren't over the same time period (which is a worthless point in practice since similar trends hold when you control for time, but she didn't do that), the fact that CFR across the entire US isn't actually a very good indicator of the likelihood that someone will die (and the fact that covid affects different demographics very differently, though delta has changed that a bit), the fact that `numCasesSinceMarch2020/totalUSPopulation` is a _terrible_ metric for a random person's likelihood of catching covid outright...
Some of those things are easy to account for, some are less so, but her not doing so gives ammo to antivaxers to discount what she's saying. Their arguments will be in bad faith because they care more about being anti-science dumbfuck contrarians than they do anyone's (including their own) well-being and any logical, well-intentioned person with the capacity to understand statistics would reach the same conclusion that it makes a _hell_ of a lot more sense to get vaccinated than to not, but I would personally rather have a "mic drop" be as rock solid as possible instead of being full of (largely inconsequential, but still existent) holes.