T O P
AutoModerator

Hello Everyone, As in all things media, please take the time to evaluate what is presented for yourself and to check for any overt media bias. There are a number of places to investigate the credibility of any site presenting information as "factual". If you have any concerns about this or any other site's reputation for reliability please take a few minutes to look it up on one of the sites below or on the site of your choosing. * [Media Bias Fact Check](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/) * [Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting (FAIR)](https://fair.org/) * [PolitiFact](https://www.politifact.com/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Portland) if you have any questions or concerns.*


BacteriaEP

For those who don't want to read the article to see how Portland ranks: * 14th most desired city for home-buying Millennials * 4th most desired city for home-buying Gen Xers * 47th most desired city for home-buying Boomers Overall they're predicting a 9% increase in average home prices this year for Portland which is lower than last year but still considerable. Not really a surprise. Portland remains an attractive and exciting city for Millennials and Gen Xers (even if the shine has worn off a bit from 2013-2016). Boomers, meanwhile, are often looking to move to cheaper cities and Portland is considerably higher than the national average. I wouldn't be surprised if politics came into it a bit for Boomers as well as they tend to be far more conservative.


SinkingDuck

We're looking to buy in Portland soon and have noticed quite a few homes going for under asking. Couple this momentum with the Fed getting ready to raise interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points and hopefully some sanity will return to the housing and asset prices in general. Right now it's just madness. I've also noticed quite a few homes that were purchased last year are now back on the market. Investor purchased perhaps? I wish we had a supplemental tax for those who purchase an additional home and sell it in under five years. Kinda like New Zealand.


Liver_Lip

>I wish we had a supplemental tax for those who purchase an additional home and sell it in under five years. We do, it's 3 years instead of 5 though.


SinkingDuck

Oh, that's excellent!


phdatanerd

Fall/winter tends to be slower—low inventory or not. A quick browse on Redfin is showing that a lot of properties on the market that feel overpriced and aren’t super desirable. Think lots of mediocre flips or properties with one big undesirable element. A decent looking two bedroom, one bath house in my old neighborhood off of 45th and Hawthorne was priced around $465-ish. The catch? There’s a big ol’ apartment high rise staring into your backyard.


Difficult_Citizen

No kidding. During our search we came across a house that was beautfiful, fit our needs, massive backyard with excellent landscaping and nicely priced. The catch? The entire rest of the street was a garbage repository and loads of tweekers in nearby run-down apartments and what appeared to be a collection of stolen vehicles.


SinkingDuck

Yeah, we're coming from Washington state. The greys aren't great for selling or listing a house. There were a large number of listings last Friday compared to the last couple of months.


Difficult_Citizen

>homes going for under asking. We just spent the last two years house hunting before finding. What you're not seeing is the 30, 40, 60, and sometimes 70K OVER asking being offered and most cases it's a cash offer. Folks who are selling will figure out a base rate and bank on that. Though your mileage may vary. We lucked out and bought at 400 with no other offers, and the house actually appraised at 430. If you're looking to land in popular neighborhoods with high walkability, be prepared to spend much much more. Our new hood is quiet and it bikable, but we're pretty far away from "Portlandia".


SinkingDuck

We're looking at .9-1.5 homes. There may be a difference there


Difficult_Citizen

Just so I’m clear, your looking in the 90-150K range?


SinkingDuck

Not sure what happened to my reply, my apologies. We're looking at 900k-1.5 mil homes


Difficult_Citizen

Ah. Your reply is probably fine. My brain doesn’t think in those terms. You’ll definitely find a nice craftsmen or something.


SinkingDuck

It's a crapshoot I think. However, aside from an alphabet district home that went over, most are going for under ask. We're going for either a period mcm or pnw contemporary property. Getting it in the right location with the right schools is a challenge.


RCTID1975

> noticed quite a few homes going for under asking. This has been happening for years. I even saw this 5-6 years ago when I was looking. The reason that was happening though was because people were listing houses at insane prices and then realized no one was going to pay that.


SinkingDuck

The last year had many selling for over asking. I just think that trend is reversing thankfully.


RCTID1975

Sell price based on asking price isn't indicative of anything. I can take this half eaten apple, list it on craigslist for $20. Doesn't mean the value is $20. And if i accept $15 for it, it doesn't mean apple prices are decreasing.


SinkingDuck

And if you then list that apple for 25 and it sells for 40, it does mean something. It's a pricing trend. This shouldn't be an argument.


SinkingDuck

You can literally look up the sell price of specific homes and homes in general for an area. They're peaking, this isn't subjective.


RCTID1975

Hey, if you need to tell yourself that to stay sane, that's fine. But, they aren't. The fact that we're in a thread about increased home prices, and they're forecasted to increase 9% in 2022, by definition, means they aren't peaking.


SinkingDuck

I wanted to apologize for my abrasive reply earlier. That wasn't cool and I'm sorry. I truly believe as does our realtor that the increase in interest rates will chill out the pricing of homes. It needs to. The current environment is stupid. I don't know your age or investment history, but solely buying to sell for a higher price with minimal value add can only exist for so long. I'm seeing many people and even funds do that right now. This is reckless. A fool and their money is soon parted and at a certain point, you run out of fools. I've watched a series of homes go for under asking where over the last two years and the last year in particular, they went over asking. Even if you factor in square footage, location and prior sale price. It's tapering, cresting, i.e. peaking. If the Fed goes for 50 basis points and I hope they do, we'll see a corresponding rapid reduction in asset pricing. 25 will still stall the price inflation with a possible reduction. We are most certainly in an asset bubble, we need to slowly deflate it without letting the economic balloon burst. Thanks for being civil and I'm sorry I wasn't.


luketastic

Even in 2008 some locations didn't even really go down in price. If there is high demand, low turnover, and low supply, you might just see stagnation with minor 5% drops on the tail end of 20+% increases. Like even recently in the stock market. If stocks go up 30%+ and then there is a clawback of 5%, stocks still went up 25%. ​ Timing markets is tough and I am not sure I would assume that prices are going to go down. It really depends on whether the housing stock is people moving within the market or moving away from the market. People moving within the market will just opt to stay where they are with increased rates and that will contribute to low supply. ​ EDIT: Also the 1-1.5 million market is more expensive than what the average person in Portland can pay. You might see less competition in the space so you can be right that you specifically will see price drops but these price drops might not be representative at all of the overall trends.


SinkingDuck

Good points, I'm not arguing that prices haven't gone up overall. I'm merely saying that they're probably not going to go up much higher if any.


SinkingDuck

Paid slightly over ask, 5k, for a 1.05 house with a lot of concessions towards us.


tanksndudes

In 2007 we paid $175K for a 603-sq-ft house in St. Johns. Absolute top of the market, which then tanked, and we were left to wonder how we would ever recoup. In 2014, we jumped for joy at being able to sell for $210K. I just checked on it last week, and it sold in July 2020 for $350K. Zillow now has it pegged at $400K. I take that last figure with a grain of salt, but that $350K was real money. For a 603 sq-ft house with 1.5 bedrooms.


Unhappy123camper

Amazing! I think my own area really jumped from mid 1990s-2008. Its not a ton above what it was in 2008. Maybe 20% higher. When we moved in a neighbor told us "a few years ago there was a house down the block that sold for over 100k, that was a first"


Mr_Hey

This Ge-x'er would be keen on somewhere small and affordable. As it stands, my options are a condo downtown (maybe) or a place out of town. Neither of which are really appealing


hucklebutter

You know where this GenXer ain't moving? Miami. No thanks.


detroitdoesntsuckbad

> my options are a condo downtown This is the smart money. Get a condo on the cheap. Everything is cyclical and eventually some sanity will return to the city and downtown/pearl will be fun again (or we turn into Detroit and I know very well how that goes but I am hopeful that won't happen).


Unhappy123camper

What about a condo toward beaverton off Barnes road area, where its still Mult Co? I think that is pretty convenient to a lot of the metro area.


Mr_Hey

That's out of town for me. I bike commute most of the year for my health and sanity. West side bike infrastructure is a considerable step down.


RCTID1975

> where its still Mult Co? If you're going to push out to the boarder, why not jump it and not pay all of our dumb taxes?


pdxprowler503

Makes sense. Still crazy how much a decent house costs. Don't know how the average family is doing it.


Unhappy123camper

My anecdotal observation is its mostly gen x parents in the more expensive areas close in neighborhoods (NE). Even with kids still in gradeschool, parents are late 40s or in early 50s. I haven't seen a shift to younger people buying homes in my general area since the late 90s, when gen x started with this. When homes go for sale, I've only seen childless older couples or retirees from CA buying them over the last couple years.


phdatanerd

My millennial friends and I mainly ended up in neighborhoods past 60th in both NE and SE. Foster-Powell, Mt.Scott-Arleta, Cully, Lents, etc. A couple of friends ended up in St. John’s as well. Anything closer in was out of budget before we had the funds secured to buy a house. Anyway, we just had a flipped house go pending on our block for $600k. Affordability keeps getting pushed further and further out.


Unhappy123camper

Yep.


Bowtie_cat

We bought in Lents last year when there were plenty for around 350. Now there's nothing under 400 in my area.


Neptune_the_sea

Gen Z are just gonna perish I guess


SinkingDuck

Sorry, 900k-1.5mil.