Third war of independence in Chechnya?

Do you think that, one more war for independence will break out in Chechenya after Russia's decline in arms and ammunition at the end of the Ukraine invasion? Also at this point Putin won't have enough resources to back Kadyrov.

I think that will be a perfect opportunity for chechens to again fight back against russia for independence, many chechens commanders who are in Ukraine war fighting against russia said, they will go to Chechenya after this war gets over.

What do you think will happen?


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Most of the Chechens you see fighting in Russia aren't just that - they're Kadyrov's Chechens, through and through. For the most part, Chechnya has been spared the mobilization we've seen elsewhere, particularly in minority-heavy areas. The overwhelming majority of the Chechens fighting and dying in Ukraine are Kadyrovites, the Chechen President's personal paramilitary. These people get tons more money compared to your average Russian mobik, not to mention better equipment and training. A lot of them are there because they're either in it for the money or personal loyalty to Kadyrov. With all that said, though, I don't think they've been involved in any particularly brutal engagements apart from the fighting in the Kyiv suburbs in the early weeks of the war. We heard that the VDV was decimated at Kyiv, and that they're suffering heavy losses in the East even today; we're seeing Wagner mercs get bloodied and dying in the hundreds around Bakhmut just about every other day now. The Chechens barely get a mention. I won't comment on whether or not Kadyrov's people are an effective fighting force or just TikTok warriors, but the fact of the matter is that they're usually not frontline soldiers. There have been rumors that some of them were assigned to blocking units, i.e. back-of-the-line formations whose sole purpose is to keep frontline troops from retreating, whether through intimidation or executing deserters and/or retreating troops. Anyway, the point here is that Tuvans, Buryats, etc. have been dying in the thousands and we haven't seen any activity that would predicate the kind of wide-scale social unrest necessary for a war or even a small-scale insurrection. Plenty of Chechen veterans have been fighting on Ukraine's side since the start of the war, but these people have been living in exile for the past 20+ years. Unless Russia literally falls apart at the end of the war, there's virtually no way for these people to go back home to overthrow Kadyrov and/or wage war against Russia itself. Even though you see signs of dissent in Chechnya every now and then, you won't see people rise up against Kadyrov unless they're some organized movement or even just an individual encouraging them to do so. And Kadyrov's own security apparatus is backed by that of the Russian state, plus the untold billions Kadyrov has received from Moscow. I wanna see the Russian empire disintegrate just as much as the next guy, but let's be realistic - it won't. Even if Ukraine ends the war on its terms, even if Putin and his people are forced out, I just can't see the social fabric of Russia breaking down so badly that the central government has to fight wars or insurrections in its own federal subjects. Despite all the setbacks Russia has suffered, all the criticism aimed at Shoigu, Prigozhin, and various generals and ministers, Kadyrov's stock has only gone up. He understands that he himself will never be President of Russia, so he's hitched his boat to Putin to be an autocrat in his own little fiefdom. If the winds shift and Putin's fall is inevitable, he'll do his damndest to make sure he's with whoever comes out on top.


Damn bro, what's your source of knowledge? Suggest me some books too!


My knowledge of Russia is still super limited - I just spend an unhealthy amount of time online reading reports out of Ukraine and Russia. Official statements, analysts, think tank reports, the odd long-form article/profile, even Telegram channels where you can see various Russian factions sniping at each other. I have read a few "Russia" books recently, but they're not exactly academic or directly concerning Chechnia. If you want to dip your toes into how Russia works from people who know their shit, though: * Putin's People - Catherine Belton * Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin - Fiona Hill * Nothing is True and Everything is Possible - Peter Pomerantsev And if anyone has any good recommendations, would love to hear 'em!


Masha Gessen's analysis always seems to be spot on but I haven't read any of their books.


Russia and Ukraine by Paul D'Anieri


Wow. I am russian, and read russian, most of the analysis I read from the western side is kind of propoganda ++ type stuff. This is actually basically spot on. Some one should get you on CNN.


It's pretty easy to separate the wheat from the chaff, IMO. A lot of the people you see on TV aren't propagandists, per se, it's just that they only have a few minutes to talk about a certain topic, and it's even harder when the media wants to push a certain narrative by asking nonsensical questions. Plus, even the actual propagandists are sometimes worth checking up on. Grey Zone, Rybar, Strelkov, Gerashchenko, etc. aren't exactly reliable, but even their bullshit can sometimes be a good indicator of where the national (and/or factional) mood is at. The Russian-language ones, especially, considering how hard it is to get non-state news out of Russia. Just gotta keep track of who's a Wagnerite, who's with the MoD, who has frontline contacts, stuff like that.


> he's hitched his boat to Putin to be an autocrat in his own little fiefdom. From some reports I've seen, Kadyrov is despised in the rest of the country and only holds power with his ruthless militia. If there is a political conflict in the country it will be against him by the more fundamentalist Muslims. If that happens, there's a good chance Putin would come to his rescue. And it would be great to force Russia to fight a two front war.


Kadyrov is dispised in most of Russia because he's not a "Russianized" Orthodox white man. That's what I meant when I said he knows he can never actually become President of Russia himself. He's angling to play a power-behind-the-throne kind of role, or indispensable right-hand man, however, you wanna look at it. He's despised by his own people because he's the kind of brutal autocrat that would make even Putin blush. Many of the fundamentalist Muslims you're talking about were either killed in the Second Chechen War and the insurgency that followed it or went into self-exile or are so reviled because of stuff like the Beslan siege that no one but their own kind (other fundamentalists, of which there aren't that many) would ever consider supporting them. There's no actual organized opposition in Russia at large because Putin's security apparatus makes that impossible. Remember all those people that got arrested and sentenced to ridiculous prison sentences for holding up a piece of paper when the war started? Shit like that has been happening for a loooong time all over Russia. If you don't play by Putin's rules, you either catch a sentence or a bullet. The same applies to Chechnia, except it's Kadyrov's men pulling the trigger. Kadyrov uses Islam to placate his people while at the same time neutralizing any imam that dares speak out against not just him, but also Putin and/or the Russian state. The *truly* organized Chechen groups haven't been in-country for a long time. Many of the veterans of the previous two wars have been fighting Russia wherever they could - they've fought in Georgia, Syria, and now Ukraine. But how any of these people could so much as start some sort of uprising, let alone set the stage for a new war, is beyond me. Two of the groups that have been in the news recently are OBON and the Dzhokar Dudayev Battalion. OBON, a battalion of the "Republic of Ichkeria," was created less than six months ago - it hasn't actually been active in Chechnia. The Dudayev Battalion is made up of a few hundred Chechen exiles, and they've been exclusively bogged down in Ukraine since 2014. Some of their members have been assassinated by Russian intelligence in Germany. They're not even safe *outside* of Russia, so again, no idea how these people can even go back home to even *start* fighting there. Again, like I said, as edgy as it may sound, I *want* Russia to fall apart, and I bet tons of minorities in this state or that feel the same way. But unless something changes - drastically - it's just a pipe dream.


>If you don't play by Putin's rules, you either catch a sentence or a bullet. Either that or they accidently fall out of a window located in a multistory building. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/russian-tycoon-pavel-antov-dies-putin-ukraine/672601/


That would be a disaster if it fell apart. The nukes would have to be safeguarded.


Excellent write up, and to add to it, Russians are willing to sacrifice as many soldiers in their war as it takes to win it, and they have virtually limitless manpower supply due to sheer size of the country. The population is completely subdued, including that of Chechnya where Kadyrov clan controls its entirely through simple murder of its opponents from other Chechen clans. Ukraine, unfortunately, is currently suffering a few setbacks that are a preview of the "winning" scorched earth policy Russia will apply just as it did to erase Grozny in the 90s to take control of it. I fear for Ukraine greatly, because of what Putin is and the way he is willing to sacrifice his brainwashed people.


Guess then we should try much harder to make it a reality, Russia is comprised of many ethnicities and is structured like a multiethnic empire so I wouldn't be so sure it won't disintegrate or rather it is disintegrating since quite some time but the collapse is nothing static it happens in waves, one blown up tank and one lost battle at a time. Of course, we need to do much more. There are so many factories to blow up, so many embargoes are yet to be spoken out. Too much trade is still done with Russia, not hard enough, and the West cracked down on those trying to bust the sanctions. Putin wouldn't be the first leader of Russia that is crushingly defeated in a major land war and loses his power. The 1917 echo is getting louder and louder the longer Russia continues to bleed. Also, their oil wealth is quite meaningless when we forbid China and India to buy it unless they wish to lose their trading benefits with the West in turn. That isn't yet possible for as long as we still buy a single ounce we can hardly sanction others to do so. Social unrest will arise once food shortages set in, Russia may be a big wheat producer but remains a net importer of food. Also, I wonder what happens come harvest time around and those farmers aren't on their fields but dead in Ukraine? Also, the situation is a bit more complicated than that: Wagnerites and Chechens they are warlords, and we have seen many incidents of infighting, so this is a gigantic powder keg. It sets in at the latest when Crimea is lost, as that is the base. Putin builds his entire power around or if Belarus levies itself from Moscow or if Georgia makes their move. The empire starts to collapse on its edges first. In fact, with the annexations Russia has set itself up for collapse as in their inner logic, they now already lose parts of what they consider Russian territory.


Well, Chechnya is already de facto somewhat independent. Russian laws doesn't seem to work there. Ramzan Kadyrov is the only head of a Russian region who has his own paramilitary. No region of Russia enjoys such degree of autonomy. And there is almost no ethnic Russians living in Chechnya. If Russia starts falling apart, I don't believe Moscow will try to keep Chechnya in the Federation. Russian military is already heavily weakened by the war in Ukraine. Who knows what will happen in the next few years. But Kadyrov, on the other side, is a Russian puppet and it's questionable if he can hold his power without support from Moscow. So it all depends on how long Kadyrov can hold on power. Instead of another war we can see surprisingly quick and peaceful secession of Chechnya. What's more interesting for me is will it cause more independence movements or not.


You said it well. I just want to add that there’s a large chance that who ever succeeds Putin, would not believe in the multiethnic Russia we see today. A lot of the opposition are ethnic Russian hardliners.


Ethnic Russian hardliners have historically been people who want to maximize the territory under Russian control; I don’t see that changing.


Not necessarily. There are some Moscow/st Petersburg politicians who don’t give a flying fuck about the rest of Russia. It’s where the majority of population lives and it’s where the ethnic Russians live. Putin’s project is to expand Russia, while a lot of Russian oligarchs want to expand their own wealth, which evidently is different.


I wonder if the kadyrovites find it ironic as blocking troops that they get to shoot Russians.


The thing about Kadyrov is that he's made himself indispensable to Russian leadership, regardless of who's in the Kremlin. Chechnia is still one of the poorest federal subjects in all of Russia, but Kadyrov and his people are loaded, to say the least. And while he's undoubtedly a heavy-handed autocrat, he also knows how to be magnanimous. All that money is coming from Moscow, sure, but that just shows you how important he is. If money were to stop flowing in, that's not an instant death sentence for him - he's got enough resources to hold out in the event of a power struggle in Moscow, and if he backs the right horse, that money tap is gonna be turned back on ASAP. Every other governor only exists to make sure the peasants pay their taxes to Moscow and to take the fall in case something bad happens. Kadyrov isn't like that - he's high-profile, he's all over the place, he's consulted on everything from domestic policy to military matters (at least on paper). The guy literally has his own army! Kadyrov is Moscow's best bet for long-term peace in the Caucasus. If this war ends so badly for Russia that internal strife is inevitable, whoever's in the Kremlin will do their damndest to make sure Chechnia doesn't flare up again.


Seems doubtful. Russia still has quite a substantial military left and while that may not be enough to beat a large, well organized military with NATO weapons like Ukraine it is absolutely enough to level Grozny again. We also haven’t seen major acts of popular resistance from with Chechnya since the war began either in the form of mass protests or in the form of separatist attacks and partisan warfare. This leads me to believe a third Chechen uprising is unlikely unless the Russian government in Moscow collapses first.


I think Chechnyan Muslims have been so brutalized in the last revolt, and the dictator apparatus so ingrained, unless Russia is truly a spent military force, I can’t see any successful uprising taking place. Perhaps a more effective Russian expulsion may be Georgia.


Another front for Russia to deal with would certainly help you Ukraine quite a bit right now


While I'm not nearly as informed as many of the other posters in this thread- just here to float a fiction novel I've just read set in Chechnya that I thought was excellent and explores some of OPs themes. A Constellation of Vital Phenomena Highly recommend!


Start with civil disobedience. Chechians should decline to be drafted for military service in Ukraine. Then add some icing on the cake, perhaps by donating food and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine civilians. Setup sister cities. Progress to public demonstrations against the Ukraine war and occupation by Russians of former Soviet republics. That will tie up troops. An optimistic daydream :-) . Then again, never dreamed Ukraine could hold out this long, even with NATO aid.


I think the best chance for Chechens and Belarusians is fighting FOR Ukraine. It will weaken Russia in general and take the focus off of those countries/states.


Plenty of them already are. There's a few Chechen groups fighting on Ukraine's side and at least one Belarussian force that I know of, all numbering in the hundreds. But that doesn't really do much for the folks back home. Many of these people were already exiles, and those that weren't probably won't be allowed back in ever again. They can coordinate with dissidents back home, sure, but veterans aren't of much use if they're not in-country to actually help. Belarus was the weakest link in Russia's sphere of influence, and all those mass protests we saw a couple years back caught Lukashenkno and Putin off-guard. But they still failed, and Putin has taken steps so that it doesn't happen again. There's tons of Russian troops stationed in Belarus now. So many, in fact, that some people are worried it might signal Belarus' official entry into the war. That's probably not the case, IMO, but if Belarusians start to rise up again, you can be damn sure Lukashenko's minions are gonna get assistance from the Russians.


Yeah. There are now three Belarusian groups in Ukraine. Belarus has an Authoritarian government essentially controlled by an authoritarian government. Lukashenko is symbiotic with Putin. Without Lukashenko, Belarus will be absorbed by Russia. That is also a main reason Russia has troops there along with the feign.


No, it won't happen Putin hired Chechins to hit Ukraine. They will get a nice pay off.


Kadyrov is a bully and a Russian agent. Most Chechens hate him. There were major protests in Chechnya and Dagestan against the deployment of young Chechen men. His thugs threatened the mothers, sisters etc of the young men if they did not fight or deserted once in the battlefield. The whole thing is under duress.


Duress easily leads to rebellion. Putin’s tunnel vision can/will easily lead to further fissuring of political satellites. He’s expending so much military and political capital in Ukraine that he’s tempting everyone around Russia’s borders. An old bear becomes food for wolves and then the foxes.


Indeed. Here’s hoping the Chechens give Putin another bloody nose.


Russia's will not decline in arms and ammunition at the end of the Ukraine invasion. We make it ourself. The Russia border is closed now, not such as 25 years ago. Old chechens commanders is too elder, yong chechens in EU prefer to engage criminal busines but not to run amoung montains.


Aside from social media talking points there is no indication that Russia is anywhere near out of resources. Heck, they haven't even mobilized more than 5% of their potential reserves.


If Kadyrov is out of the picture, and Russia is too distracted in Ukraine, will his son be able to control the country or is this the ideal time for another revolution?