T O P

Canada's inflation rate rises to highest level in a decade, at 3.6% - CBC News

Canada's inflation rate rises to highest level in a decade, at 3.6% - CBC News

ComradeBalian

Best I can do is a $0.10 hourly raise in October


CarrierSteve

Sorry, with the rise of inflation, we actually have to reduce your wage


JustCallMeSeth

Best comment 2021


Homie-Missile

Facts. I took a 12% pay cut.


Paradise5551

I am the ceo of my company. I took a 100% post cut. But I'm the only employee 😂😂


OpeningEconomist8

Is this factoring in those tax funded government CERB payments and interest free loans/grants for small biz? /s


Fine_Cut

Don't forget CEBA where you could literally get $60k, park it in a savings account, and then return $40k by December and keep the free 20k from the government.


defnotjackiec

But don’t worry! Our CEO took a pay cut and will only receive a more modest pay increase. Nahnahnahnah leader! Edit. Maybe a Prof Farnsworth “Good news everyone!” Is a better fit.


canadian_stig

$5 million salary / 40% pay-cut = new salary of $12.5 million. CEO math checks out.


Spindrift11

This is their way


gangaheadman

not gonna be ours


Xanderoga

And take away your benefits


Klewenisms204

jokes aside, even in a union, i never see 3.6% increases.


Rugsby84

Increases!? There’s all sorts of rumours of having our wages rolled back 5-15% Let alone the constant attacks on our benefits and pensions.


Oldcadillac

You guys get pensions!?


leaklikeasiv

What’s a pension?


StormSociety

Something that used to be popular on /r/personalfinancecanada about 50 years ago for retirement purposes. /s


Berly653

What’s retirement?


leaklikeasiv

I’ve heard rumours, but now my only chance is crashing my house out, if I don’t want to till 90


FullAtticus

What's a house?


shaktimann13

I think all professional Unions have pensions that their members pay into. It's not like a gift from taxpayers, the people pay into the pension fund, just like CPP. Majority people just assume pensions are paid fully by employers lol


saintg91

I used to work under unifor. Canadas largest union. Unifor merged with the CAW and what they have done is fuck workers. The CAW bargained a pension paid solely by the company. Now unifor took that off the table and now its an equal contribution. We the workers didn't pay into our pensions until it was bargained away. Most unions going back 10years had the company provide the pension. Unions have lost more rights for their workers in the past 20 years then what was fought for... globalization the threat of losing your job to a developing country is a unions biggest threat. Companies are pressing that threat. Dividing us. The majority of pensions were paid by the employer. Now we're weak and no one wants to fight for equal rights.


Xanderoga

Used to be in unifor and the ~~context~~ contract we voted in was SHIT. Everyone was worried the company would bring in contractors to do our jobs (to be fair, they *did* have them on standby), so what the fuck were we supposed to do? I’m currently on strike because my new company wants our benefits and no retirement benefits for new hires, etc. The erosion of benefits and union strengths as a whole throughout the world is astounding when you look back at what they had 50 years ago.


rainman_104

> my new company wants our benefits and no retirement benefits for new hires, etc. Honestly no union should ever go for an agreement that benefits the existing members but harms all new members joining in. That's just a tragedy when that happens. I think Safeway made a deal like this if I recall.


theizzeh

That’s what CUPW did. They actively fucked over new staff to the point that we make less now then new letter carriers did in the 70s factoring in inflation


rainman_104

Solidarity my ass. That shit is so toxic


saintg91

Same thing happened in our 2016 contract. New hires get fucked because the union faces the old timers against the new people. And our old timers didn't wanna fight for us. Their weak and thought fuck these new people. I was at this company since 2011 I quit in 2017 because whats the point of being fucked. Working under unequal pay and benefits.. whats the point of a union. We lost everything we fought for 50 years over.. people went on strike for. Starved for. And what... nothing.. the government just gave them 500 million to retool. They weren't going anywhere just that threat that they would and weak union leadership and you lose. To sell outs. I'm with u brother! fight for whats right.


commazero

We did until the UCP illegally took them over


Killer-Barbie

My in laws are all nurses, teachers or mechanics. Most of us are moving provinces because our province is attacking nurses and teachers, has been playing games with their collective agreements (both teacher and nurses CA are up), and with teacher pensions. Minor increase in cost of living to not have to deal with this BS is totally worth it


nicins

Manitoba Nurses Union voted for a strike vote last week. 98% voted, over 11,000 nurses... all because the Conservative government we currently have has passed a bill that will remove all our provinces unions abilities to go to arbitration come the fall. They kept bringing to the table wage rollbacks... Many if not most of our provinces unions contracts have been expired for years (many since 2017). Seeing this article, just shows that we have to fight for what we deserve. Edit: My mistake, the conservatives plan to pass Bill 16 in the fall. The fact still remains we have until the fall when the ability to resolve contract negotiations by binding arbitration is taken away from us Manitobans.


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brinvestor

I understand why Quebec are recruiting nurses in Brazil now.


donjulioanejo

Eh, yes and no. While we don't always treat nurses well, in the US they're treated as barely better than janitors. We also pay them better than most US institutions. It's common for an RN to make 6 figures a few years out of school with OT. It's very uncommon there except in places like California.


pasky

>the Conservative government we currently have has passed a bill that will remove all our provinces unions abilities to go to arbitration come the fall. Is this....legal?


_Rogue136

With the not-withstanding clause they can force it through. Just ask DoFo...


mhyquel

> They kept bringing to the table wage rollbacks... ***retroactive*** wage rollbacks. Like, you have to pay us back $20,000 for the past 4 years without a contract.


Killer-Barbie

Isn't that the truth


rainman_104

The bc one for teachers is actually brilliant. The province negotiates cupe first. Cupe puts in a metoo clause. Nurses come along and want a bigger increase and the province can say: well giving you an increase also causes cupe to get an increase, so the province will cost it into any increase the nurses demand beyond cupe as an additional cost. Nurses sign for a similar deal to cupe, with a metoo clause. Teachers hit the bargaining table and everyone upstream has a metoo clause. What the hell can they negotiate? Any increase beyond gets sent back to bc nurses and cupe. Contracts shouldn't be chained like that, but for those at the front of the pack it's golden. Let someone else try and fight for more for you.


Kasrielle

To bad BCGEU never adds a metoo clause. Most we've ever gotten is 2% per year, and several years it's been 0%. Every year we fall further behind the cost of living.


rayyychul

There are no unions with "me-too" agreements in the BCTF. It's just an excuse to not give teachers raises. Even if there were, teachers got 2-2-2 last year (standard across the province for most unions) and nurses got 1.75% + 2-2-2 and 8.3% for those at the top of the grid. https://bctf.ca/BargainingAndContracts.aspx?id=34908


deletednaw

Yep Alberta health care checking in. No raise since 2015 and now UCP wants us to take a 5% cut. And people genuinely wonder why health care professionals in AB are leaving


DiscoEthereum

"BuT iT's YoUr TuRn To SuFfEr NoW" - all the morons who laughed and told public employees to get a job in the patch if they wanted to make more money. Funny how I never saw these people advocating for wage increases for others while they were raking it in hand over fist. When the gravy train stopped though suddenly they care very much about how much other people make. "Fuck you got mine" transformed to crabs in the bucket real quick. The difference is that the need for teachers and healthcare haven't gone away, they would just rather enable corporate welfare than pay for essential services, most of which save money in the long run even if they aren't directly "profitable". Focus on profitability above all else has destroyed us.


AVSMAN15

Omers passed a bill last year that allows them to not increase your pension by inflation if they feel it would negatively impact the fund. So needless to say they did this on purpose knowing inflation was going to skyrocket past the normal inflation rate


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Xanderoga

That’s why I’m on strike!


scotsman3288

exactly...we just got a new agreement with average annual increase of 1.75% and it was 3 years late


thepoopiestofbutts

We got the biggest raise since I started, plus a big management promotion (from acting manager to step 3( out of 4 ) manager) and now make a whopping 60k *before* tax/ union dues/etc .. I also get the added benefit of working 10 hour days with no break and the whole place turning into a giant dumpster fire if I actually want to use my vacation days. Middle management is just the greatest /s


lemonylol

> and the whole place turning into a giant dumpster fire if I actually want to use my vacation days. I like my company, but man this always happens to me too. And my job is apparently considered entry level by my HR department?


ScarbierianRider

I got my cost of living increase thankfully


Serkonan_Whaler

Know that central bankers around the world were pulling their hair out worrying that we won't be getting enough inflation around 5-10 years ago.


travman6

Yeah me too....1.25%/year


jsboutin

You're more likely to see that outside of an Union. Giving a 3.6% raise to one employee happens every day, but no business that has any choice will give a 3.6% increase to all of its employees.


oldschoolguy90

I gave my guy a $5/hr raise 2 months ago. 12%. I'm the ultimate boss compared to most of what you guys have


TomMakesPodcasts

You are


Esg876

Are you hiring?


oldschoolguy90

I've been tempted, except that with one guy, there's a perfect balance between him installing, and me quoting, ordering, and helping with installs. If I hire an extra installer, I'd need someone to help keep up quoting, which means I need enough work to keep a sales guy busy, which means I'd need 2-3 extra installers, plus another guy ordering. At that point it would feel like I've lost control of my business. Are you a good guy to hire? My mind has been changed in the past...


jacnel45

[Ontario IRL](https://www.ontario.ca/document/your-guide-employment-standards-act-0/minimum-wage).


Frothylager

How do I become a hunting and fishing guide?


Mutchmore

Looking forward to not get a raise this year!


unzinc

Looking forward to continuing my 20% pay reduction


jackalofblades

I can see the letter now. "Due to these unprecedented times..."


unzinc

We are into now.. "to remain vigilant against rapidly changing economic circumstances and unforseen turns in the commodity price, we will keep wages lower to protect you from potential job loss"


tesshudd

We are all in this together! /s


unzinc

And the thing is everyone thinks that makes sense, they're scared to lose job. I'd rather get my full wage and get laid off if it comes to it. Collect my sevvy and move on.


CondorLane

Your boss definitely will though!


kent_eh

>Looking forward to not get a raise this year! Again.


dxiao

I may be biased as I am in the IT industry, specifically software dev and consulting, but it seems to be much more common now to change jobs to get raises annually. Edit: I am biased.


carry4food

IT job adverts are hilarious. Always some small(ish) company that has no idea what they actually need so job adverts contain EVERYTHING. "Need IT to IT in IT systems. Must be able to code, setup email servers, run databases, hardware maintainance and upgrades, Self-starter....pay 50k a year"....Its sadly hilarious.


Vok250

Need 15 years experience in Kotlin ^^^Kotlin ^^^is ^^^from ^^^2011


fizzspo

We will also throw you free coffee and junk food if you can come in as early as 6.


richyrich9

It's always been that way unless you work for an enlightened org that monitors and will pay market rates.


dxiao

It was always a thing but it just seems much more prevalent in the last 5 years or so. It was almost a stigma or negative to do that before but now it seems to be the norm. At least based on my experience.


ashfrankie

This is the way.


lemonylol

You are biased.


nytewulf22

As someone who participates in the economy by purchasing essential items to stay alive, this comes as no surprise.


Alewood0

Yes as someone who doesn't want to starve and doesn't have access to fertile land or a hunting rifle, this also comes as no surprise. Still worrying


SavvyInvestor81

I'm surprised it's not more, all food items seem to have increased 10% to 20% where I live. But heh, I guess food doesn't count for much in the CPI calculation.


bureX

Your iPad is cheaper so it evens out.


[deleted]

If you live near a big city is a little bit better, I live in Markdale Ont, only one choice for groceries, and prices are 40% higher than in the city, 2 hrs drive north of Toronto does not justify the difference, it is gouging. First year i will try to grow some of my own food to offset at least the summer food expense.


TheMonkeyMafia

The actual release from StatsCan is here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210616/dq210616a-eng.htm


umar_farooq_

It's pretty strange times and they do a good job of illustrating how monthly numbers, especially in COVID times, can be very misleading: > In May 2020, gasoline prices rose 16.9% month over month, recovering from March (-17.8%) and April (-15.2%), when both supply- and demand-related factors contributed to significantly lower prices at the gas pumps. Doubt it'll stop this subreddit from overreacting but yeah...


hypothesenulle

Again, some comments are correct on the surface but have a very shallow understanding of inflation. Anyone who lived through inflation knows some prices are more likely to correct than others, especially things like gasoline, lumber. On the other hand, things like food, grocery and real-estate don't tend to come down after inflationary periods. Our diluted money supply will simply inflate some assets. Furthermore the CPI is a troglodyte measure of controlling inflation expectations, not a measure of inflation itself. Inflation rises when people expect inflation. It's a simple concept many people don't understand. The fact that the CPI has risen means it's becoming harder to contain inflation **expectations**.


William_Harzia

I run a small business. Operating during COVID has driven down our productivity due to physical distance rules, and increased expenses. It's also killed off 5 competitors, so we're seeing a demand on our serviced like we've never seen before. I've increased our prices more in the last year than I have in the last 5 combined, and I'm doing it because I need the phone to ring less. Reporting from the field, William_Harzia.


Exanime4ever

Gas prices seem to be sticky as hell... I regularly see 10 cent overnight increases followed by a 2 or 3 week period of correction where prices never drop more than 1 cent


EmuHobbyist

Trying to time putting in gas like its the stock market haha. Buy low!


Exanime4ever

I know!... I happen to live very close to 3 different gas stations so it's easy for me to take a "daily reading" of those at least. I now know there is one that goes up a few hours before the others so it has become my alarm bell LOL


NonsensitiveLoggia

tbh when I used to drive, we'd always fill up when gas was at its local low. we'd only put in a small amount, maybe $20 if it was noticeably more expensive. it probably doesn't save much but it's also not a big time sink.


NoMarket5

It actually is when you think of it. You have to stop driving to fill up your tank. Stop, pay and then the merge into traffic. That alone is worth $2 of time which is more than the cost of gas difference.


throw0101a

They're answering some of the 'trolls': > Spotlight on housing prices > > The housing sector is an integral part of the Canadian economy. Residential real estate accounts for about 1/10 of Canadian gross domestic product. > > The measurement of shelter costs is one of the more complex components of the CPI. There is no consensus on the optimal approach; instead, a few methods are used internationally, depending on the use of the CPI and the available data. The Canadian CPI uses a variant of the user cost approach, and this means that the CPI does not include the purchase price of a property. This is because a house is considered an asset rather than a consumer good. Instead, the CPI measures all the costs associated with owning and living in a property, such as the homeowners' replacement cost, the mortgage interest cost, property taxes, homeowners' home and mortgage insurance, homeowners' maintenance and repairs, and other owned accommodation expenses, such as commission and legal fees on the sale of real estate. > > These costs are captured in the owned accommodation price index, which accounts for 16.80% of the 2017 CPI basket. They have a pretty good datavis page on the breakdown of the CPI: * https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm


IntellijIDE

What explains the shelter increase? The recent mortgage rate increases?


frndlthngnlsvgs

Cost of building materials and labour for repair? Replacing your fences this time vs pre-covid is a big difference.


rainman_104

Yep. $50 a fence post, $200 for a 6 foot type 1 solid panel. It's definitely not cheap right now.


SleazyGreasyCola

Cost of buying a house translates to higher rents down the line.


puffsprinkle

Mortgage rates are historically low even if they're slightly higher compared to 6 months ago. Low mortgage rates mean higher home prices even if your monthly payments are the same. So affordability is similar to 1 year ago (other than SFHs) but the down payment requirements are higher.


IllustriousProgress

Not surprising, considering nearly every time I visit the supermarket at least one item I regularly buy is 10% more expensive than it was previously. Add to that the "shrinkflation" where they give you less for the same if not higher price. My favorite is seeing something "on sale" for the regular price as a prelude to the increase.


Shoe-in

Granola bars! Wth happened? Tiny, thin, two bite bars. The crisper crackers bag shrunk. Frozen fruit bags shrunk. I rarely eat these things so it was a huge surprise. Two grocery bags and its $80 or more. For what? Pepper are down in price now by about a dollar(cause summer?) but went from $2.99 to $5.89. And you better eat them within 2 days or they go bad.


pyro5050

i have not had a raise in over 8 years now.... you think your fastest growing inflation can scare me? i've been scared for years!


knoxvomica

Just a reminder, if you haven't had a raise in 8 years, you are actually working for less money now than you did 8 years ago. Inflation is a bitch, maybe look for other work?


Good_Consumer

Exactly. Love HR’s spin calling an inflation adjustment a pay rise. No you’re just paying me last year’s rate in today’s money.


ashfrankie

Time to job hop if you can, friend :(.


must_be_funny_bot

You’re making at least 16% less now than you were originally… If possible I’d try to switch jobs, that’s pretty rough


loercase

Big surprise. Everything is more expensive. All my local restaurants have new menus this year.... guess what, prices are all up $3-4 per item. It's nuts, but I can't blame 'em, things are expensive everywhere now.


FullAtticus

I'd guess that these price increases are more to do with supply chain and closures. Restaraunts have a lot of perishable items that can't be stored long-term and being shut down on a couple days notice during peak dining season causes a lot of spoilage and waste.


[deleted]

buddy you telling me you aren't going to pay $21 for a hamburger and 11 French fries, and then tip your waitress $4 because she dropped it on your table


Mundane_Egg_817

So now even savings account interest rates at 2% is below inflation and losing value in the long term...


allnewmeow

Which big 5 is offering 2%?


FormoftheBeautiful

Doesn’t this mean that my debt will be easier to pay down, given that the money I owe is worth less? Everything is coming up Milhouse!


Broad_Tea3527

Maybe we need to look into the housing market more because that has to be playing a huge factor in this.


Tk-20

It's literally across the board. Everyone in the supply chain is floored at how fast price increase are going through. Lumber, copper, aluminum, lighting... anything made with any of those things have gone up 20-50% since Q1 2021. At some point these increases are going to show through on a consumer level and it's going to be rough. I don't see how anyone manufacturing anything from food to cars to clothing can keep prices as they are when their operating/material costs are skyrocketing. 3.6% inflation seems really low in comparison to the increased cost of materials, increased cost of housing and supply shortages due to covid shutting down whole factories and boats getting stuck where they really shouldn't be stuck.


TimHung931017

Random thought of the day: Hard to blame people who YOLO into meme stocks when the alternative is modern day slavery.


Due_Ad_7331

This is so true. Its either gamble it all and hope to 200x your money or lose what little you have.


AdorableContract0

Better odds than scratch offs, and that’s been the pension of east coasters for generations


yrtsimehChemistry

Why blame them in the first place? People can do whatever they want with their money.


TimHung931017

A lot of "sophisticated" traders scoff at anything "meme" related because their condescending point of view automatically dictates quick money as pump and dump schemes. Although a majority are, there's a deep corrupt history in Wall Street and fundamental DD to support the rise of certain ticker(s) which I won't mention. The point is, people get very bitter when others get rich quick, and feel better about themselves by saying it's stupid.


thehomeyskater

Exactly.


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TimHung931017

Easy for someone to say buy so and so for modest returns when a 10+% return is thousands or more. For most people 10-20% return is less than $300 since they have no investable income. I know because I have enough of a portfolio to buy ENB/Telus/XEQT, etc. and be happy with 10% return. But I have many friends where a 10% return on their entire portfolio is about $100-200. Plus with new investors taking hold, the stock market being a gambling vehicle is more prominent, versus smart investing. Anyways I also yolo a bit of my portfolio on GME, I have full confidence in the corruption of Wall Street. I just don't know if any squeeze will actually happen, but I'm not going to miss the boat if it does.


LachlantehGreat

Furniture makes sense with the new tariffs in place, and food as well given the effects of the supply chain and the ever increasing effects of climate change. Unfortunately I don’t think wage increase is even close to start matching this inflation in a YoY comparison. Hopefully something changes or gives soon…


iSmite

Wages are definitely not gonna go up for everybody. More people will suffer and will have to cut their important expenses.


murfinator55

Low interest rates means people are borrowing to maintain their lifestyle, not sustainable


Shahruhruh

I’m in supply chain we are not having any issues ?!! Maybe in March 2020 but everything was quickly back to normal. There is no supply chain issues when it comes to food.


LachlantehGreat

Sorry that was meant as more of a general “supply chain being overworked” in all economic aspects


dnndrk

Not just tariffs, the shipping cost has almost tripled since last year. It is very ridiculous.


iSmite

I do a lot takeouts for myself - like going to the restaurant and pickup the food. Everywhere the prices have gone up In the last year.


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YourFriendlyUncle

Remember $5 footlongs? I remember... They shouldn't have used such catchy price-related jingles because they remind you how much prices have risen and will keep rising


Taureg01

$18 for shit food ouch


FullAtticus

Fast food has gone out of control price-wise. I've been doing a lot better going to local restaraunts, bakeries and coffee shops. The place down the road from my work (The Bread Lounge, in Halifax NS, if anyone's hungry) is fantastic and only charges like 9 bucks for an excellent Coffee (I usually go for their iced latte), a hand-made pastry, and a delicous sandwich that they'll happily toss on the pannini press for you. Basically costs the same as getting a breakfast combo at Tims, but everything is significantly better and you're not feeding your money to a soulless international conglomerate.


lemonylol

They think we forget about $5 fucking footlongs after all of those annoying radio and tv ads?


ddubnyk

You wouldn't be wrong. That's when it a actually was affordable and not the same as eating at a pub.


froyoboyz

nah you just got ripped off


jacnel45

Inflation gets out of control. Bank of Canada: This is fine.


fractx

Bond market: [This is fine](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/CA10Y).


fpo

Could you please explain this like I’m 5?


fractx

The bond market is the place where people literally bet on what today's money will be worth years into the future. I.e., whether inflation will be a problem. It's where people put massive amounts of their money where their mouth is instead of shitposting on reddit. The market is saying this recent growth spurt in inflation is likely due to temporary factors and will revert back down because of COVID-related temporary factors and excess capacity, meaning we still have a large unemployment force where people can jump into the labor market to produce things and bring down prices.


sanman

They both see these numbers as transient/frictional, and thus only a temporary squeeze. We also need to look at wage data to see what kind of changes are showing up there.


rainman_104

The bond market can't get too far away from the overnight rate. Sometimes the yield curves will change, but to gap far away from the overnight or bank prime rate... That's actually quite rare. Mortgage debt accounts for a substantial velocity in the bond market, and if the five year pulls too far from the overnight a lot of activity will transfer to the overnight by using variable instead of fixed.


fractx

Now you're getting technical with a formal interest rate derivatives trader at a global investment bank. I can dive very very deep into this topic. The bond market can and does get far away from the overnight rate. The curve structure steepens and flattens depending on market expectations. One commonly watched economic growth benchmark is the 2s10s spread (10 year yield - 2 year yield). For completion's sake, I might as well also mention that the government bond yields and overnight rates are on different yield curves. The Bank of Canada posts its policy rate 0.25% as a guidance on where cash trades between banks to satisfy [reserve requirements](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/requiredreserves.asp). For the large part the market stays faithful when trading overnight cash, but it does [differ from day to day](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/corra) depending on market demand for short-term cash, which tends to spike around corporations' fiscal quarter-ends and has been trading below 0.2% for most of 2021. Bank of Canada only very occasionally heavyhandedly goes into the market to correct this if it strays too far from guidance. The overnight rate forms the basis for all short-term lending rates between banks, including 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, etc. These are collected everyday and posted as LIBOR rates (London Interbank Offered Rates). LIBOR rates form the basis for longer-term rates inter-bank lending rates traded as interest rate swaps, and together they form the LIBOR yield curve. Inter-bank rates inherently carries counterparty default risk between banks, so it tends to trade at a premium compared to government bonds. Bank prime rate is a retail/consumer rate. Frankly it's not very important to the financial markets, and it's not worthy of being included in this write-up.


IceWook

Is it though? Inflation fell last year. In a normal year they’d target 1-3 percent inflation and it fell in May. That means that it was in deficit to its normal target rate of about 1.2 percent (inflation fell like 0.2 percent last May year over year). Meaning with another year of added inflation of that same number, we’re only about 2.4 percent in the grab total. Which isn’t that out of control. And a lot of this is production bottlenecks and additional costs due to an enormous world changing event. Gas tanked last year and is up slightly from pre-Covid levels. That’s wildly influencing the numbers, as was stated in the article. It’s rising faster than usual, but maybe there isn’t as much reason to be concerned as people seem to think. So yea maybe it’s fine


lanquidityRA

Agree. I think there's a massive amount of misinformation about how the BoC and other institutions define inflation, what base effects are, and, generally, how monetary policy works. People still think QE is the same as dumping cash directly into the economy, causing inflation, for example. OTOH, there have also been these concurrent supply shocks and supply chain disruptions (lumber, chips, etc.) that have driven up prices in the short term, but will likely even out. Not to say the BoC or GC shouldn't be concerned.


Luxim

I agree, there's a lot of pessimism and fear-mongering in this thread. The reason hyperinflation happened in the past in Venezuela, Brazil and others wasn't just because of "printing money", but because the local economy and debt levels were in bad shape in the first place. We'll be just fine. Not to mention that yes, some people might not get a raise, but new job postings will have to offer higher salaries to attract new employees. Not to mention, that if you have debts that are at 0% or low interest, your balance just got devalued as well. If you have provincial student loans that are interest-free currently, you just got a $1.5k rebate off a $50k balance.


throw0101a

> Inflation gets out of control. Given the YoY nature of the measurement, you may wish to look into *base effect*: > Thinking about the base effect in comparing different numbers or pieces of data means considering the question, "Compared to what?" The choice of the basis for comparison can have a large effect on the apparent result of a comparison. If ignored or misunderstood, the base effect can lead to a major distortion and possibly mistaken conclusions. However, if considered carefully, it can be leveraged to improve an analyst's understanding of the data and the underlying processes that generate them. * https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/base-effect.asp Given that, if you look at the two-year trend line (which helps deal with the craziness of 2020), it's following a 2% path: * https://twitter.com/stephenfgordon/status/1395027551479865346 Turns out the people who run monetary policy have actually taken a course or two in statistics, and so are aware of this: > Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic early last year, the nation has seen enormous swings in consumer prices, with extraordinary declines last spring giving way to similarly eye-popping increases as the economy has reopened. > > These large swings have whipsawed our standard 12-month measures of inflation and made it difficult to disentangle recent trends from the impact of prior declines. In this post, we discuss a measure that provides useful context to recent movements in inflation. * https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0513


Hobojoe-

Hey, look guys, a measurable and reasonable answer in Reddit.


GarboMan

Probably because comparing a year ago when gas was super cheap is not effective. 2.5% rise year-over-year when excluding gas is not bad, and actually helps move toward the 2% target as it has been below this target the past decade.


jarret_g

I'm so glad I'm working from home and that my wife is on parental leave. Between our two cars and 35-40 minute communtes (each way) we would spend $120-150 in gas alone. Now we might spend $20/week and are contemplating selling our second car.


Baldpacker

This is how government deficits get paid back without an obvious tax increase.


Beneficial_Pen_7521

I can already see my company not giving any raises this year because of corona. Even though they did just fine the previous year.


NorseGod

"Maybe next year" = Corporate speak for you're never getting more money unless you quit.


JimboE911

The pandemic created a fomo of everything. Look at what happened with toilet paper of all things. People are rushing to buy up everything and anything at this point.


branks182

WE MUST CONSUME!


Max_Thunder

An inflatable kayak I bought in 2017 for $87 is now being sold for $295 on Amazon. It's ridiculous. And I lost a skeg on one of them and can't find a replacement. The company is out of stock (there was a brief moment where it was available for about $45 with shipping to Canada, I hesitated then it went out of stock again), and eBay has an American person making compatible skegs that they sell for about $40 with shipping.


GANTRITHORE

I bought that last year at $175! tbf the price history on that thing is like a roller coaster of death even before covid.


PartyPay

Based on my social media, kayaking has exploded in popularity which would make it an outlier, wouldn't it?


dxiao

*calling all PC owners with no GPUs inside.*


Bottle_Only

When rent is $1500 a month plus $250 utilities, $30 cell phone $70 internet and jobs pay $2k a month... You gotta ask strangers for bus fair to buy groceries. Shelter costs not being included in CPI is the biggest fiscal neglect of government in history. We can move shelter expense from 25% of net income to 75% income and tell the world there is no inflation.


dmoneymma

Tell me more about this $30 cell plan


Bottle_Only

Well in February 2014 you could sign up for unlimited talk text and data for $30 a month. Keep it. Forever.


LeDudeDeMontreal

>Shelter costs not being included in CPI is the biggest fiscal neglect of government in history. We can move shelter expense from 25% of net income to 75% income and tell the world there is no inflation. Shelter isn't consumption though. And it has disproportionate effects in certain locations. And it doesn't affect a significant portion of the population : people who live in rent controlled apartments and aren't moving, and existing homeowners. I'm an existing homeowner, like many, many Canadians. Life hasn't gotten significantly more expensive for me, except for very some specific things (food, lumber & renovation...), some of which seems to be temporary. Edit : based on some other redditor's comment, it seems both rental and ownership costs are indeed included.


Gunnarz699

>Edit : based on some other redditor's comment, it seems both rental and ownership costs are indeed included. Rental costs are (they include precious rent controlled tenancies so this lags significantly) but ownership costs are not as property is considered an asset.


Internetmomo

So when do we bring the $1000 bill back?


Stupid_money69

Saw it coming like 6 months ago! 🤷🏻‍♂️


Illustrious-Ad7827

wallstreet is expecting a crash bigger than 2008, they are selling off positions and buying properties and land as asset like before it happens as they do not depreciate. check out this reddit thread on whats happening behind the scenes. this is bigger than you may think. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the\_bigger\_short\_how\_2008\_is\_repeating\_at\_a\_much/


mrbnlkld

That was a good read, thank you. Properties and land absolutely depreciate in rough times. Have you read "The Great Depression: A Diary" by Benjamin Roth?


Terakahn

Here I thought they were just buying gme ;)


TheApricotCavalier

3.6%....that they admit to. Up to now everyone was claiming 0


mrstruong

I still call bullshit on these numbers... Last year, this time, my grocery bill was 100 dollars a week for me and my husband. I have celiac. That means we only ever buy the same things, from the same 3 stores that are a couple blocks from me, because introducing new things into my diet, or even into my kitchen can be a huge gamble on if it will make me sick or not. The SAME THINGS, bought this year, and my grocery bill last week was 188 dollars.


Malgidus

I think that is your specific goods in your area. Groceries are nowhere near 88% more expensiv--many Canadians would not be able to afford food then. There are tonnes of grocery items that are very close to their normal prices. Plenty of fruit and vegetables, rice, etc. are the same they always have been


tarsoo

Bank of Canada: I would like you to crunch those numbers again


HPSteakcraft

As shitty as the games CBs and BoC, in particular, play, they at least called Statscan on their bullshit somewhat recently.


Account839274

Statistics Canada: * Has hundreds of employees who are paid to go to stores across the country and browse online inventories to record and track real prices; has entire teams of master's degree and Ph.D. analysts crunching the numbers to compute CPI for the average consumer. * Random Redditor: "I call bullshit. My *gut feeling* doesn't match what the data says, therefore it is wrong." The goal of CPI isn't to tell each and every individual how the cost of their unique lifestyle has changed, but rather to capture the general trend of price escalation weighted to the average consumer's expenditure on said goods. For example, CPI includes both a rent and owned accommodation component. How many people rent and pay a mortgage? Very few. CPI includes both cost of purchasing a new vehicle and cost of public transportation. How many people buy a car and take the bus every month? Very few. If you really want to dig into CPI's numbers, feel free to visit [Table 18-10-0004-01](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1810000401) where you can find individual indices for specific items like meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, cleaning products, bakery items, restaurant meals, etc. The reason most people feel like CPI doesn't reflect their own cost of living is because CPI represents a common basket of items based on average statistics and survey data, which isn't going to capture everyone. Plus, data skips over emotion. You go to the store and purchase a few items and look at the bill and go "holy crap, it's $188 when it's normally $100. This is insane, inflation is out of control!". But what you don't remember is that TV back in your house costs less today than it did 10 years ago, the laptop you purchased 3 years ago is the same price today, gasoline and natural gas prices this month are down compared to the same month last year, price of baked goods has remained flat, restaurant meals have only gone up 1%, and so on and so forth. There is so much nuance within one number that it will never fully capture the sticker shock one feels when making a very specific purchase. Especially when infrequent asset purchases like houses and cars are going up significantly, but make up a very small component in the CPI measurement.


HPSteakcraft

Hey, remember when the BoC rejected Statscan's inflation numbers last in the past year because they were caught jigging them in an indefensible way to underreport, based on an internal directive? Don't get me wrong, I love the grift, too. Best year on record for me. But even in the most generous interpretation of CPI, where it accurately measures what it purports to, the weighting and changes therein can be incredibly specious. And here you are, idolatry of ideology.


snobird

You must be mistaken, lady. Inflation is only 3.6%. /s


mrstruong

Ah yes, it must be me. I'm clearly suffering from some kind of delusional psychosis where my money gets spent at an alarmingly faster rate while having no increase in actual goods or services purchased. :P


GarboMan

I got bananas for 40 cents a pound at Superstore the other day. A year ago they were 80 cents a pound. Therefore, since I only eat bananas, inflation must be down 50%. See how this doesn't work?


Hobojoe-

Try the asparagus diet, My month to month inflation is wild!


oops_i_made_a_typi

i mean it stands to reason that specialty items that cater to a celiac diet are not representative of the normal food items that people buy. Plus inflation isn't just groceries


idrac1966

Nobody said she's buying specialty items - she implied she is buying a very restricted set of items that she can eat over and over again which is why she can see the price difference.


WeedstocksAlt

That’s not the point. Buying a specific set of items will for sure not reflect the market wide price change. Their limited selections will be more affected if one item’s price greatly fluctuate and will fuck up the total price in a disproportionate %. The fact that she is always buying a limited set of specific items make the observation useless


kissmyassphalt

Even costco prices have increased. From some of the produce I buy it’s around 30% increase


Perfect600

that may not be strictly due to inflation though. Lots of goods are up in price due to supply and demand. Lots of people working from home, means more people cooking at home (i would hope). Then you have to factor in shipping issues, whatever else and there you go. It could also be due to the specific goods you buy for Celiacs as i am making the assumption that they are already more expensive then typical groceries and thus more expensive to keep stock.


-Swaggy

Somethings with increase more, some less than inflation. This is more an average of everything your regular person buys. Then when looking at a single item, alternative items that can act as substitutes must be taken into account.


S_204

Food inflation is based on a set "basket" of goods.... you're specialty diet doesn't reflect the majority of Canada and is not reflected in this report. Have you done a comparison on what your fresh veg/fruit/meat are costing you rather than you whole bill? The retailers you shop at are jacking up their prices to take advantage of customers like you. Many retailers are jumping on what they consider a gravy train now that people are primed for expecting inflationary costs.


Scatman_Jeff

Necessities like food, housing and transportation generally outpace inflation.


Monsieurcaca

This is anecdotic, not the way inflation is calculated.


TNI92

This is actually more positive than I would have hoped for. Inflation fears have been running hot for months. To see its 2.5% ex gas (which is always volatile...) suggests some of that is overblown.


[deleted]

[удалено]


TNI92

That's fair. It is a real expense but we need this metric to be somewhat prescriptive. You don't want the BoC to make policy decisions based on whether oil is up or down. You would get wild overcorrections either way.


idcandnooneelse

Don't worry. It will continue to go up.


abacabbmk

People dont seem to remember that last May gas/oil was cheap as hell. Price today is about where it was prior to the pandemic. Clearly this is transient. 2.5% (excl gas) isnt bad considering much of this is driven by pandemic related supply issues, pushing up prices. But i know this post will be filled with cynical/snarky commentary from those who dismiss/ignore the above.


Tinchotesk

Isn't this simply compensating for the price drops a year ago? In the current circumstances, I don't think a one-year comparison gives a broad economic look. What's the inflation May 2019 to May 2021?


Ares_1992

As a father to a 1yr old and a newborn in Oct. It's saddens me that I prob won't be able to purchase a house. It's absolutely insane how Canada's markets are so inflated. Hope there's a crash soon


nervous-person

There won’t be crash. They’ll just keep inflation going and going.


VIKSZN

It is to be expected, the aftermath of covid wasn't going to be pretty.


Frothylager

Food 1.5%? I don’t know about that one chief.


shartyourpants

..and this is just the massaged numbers they feel comfortable releasing


Budget-Mission-7754

Does anybody know what's included in "shelter"? I think they should include real estate in these calculations


Dusk_Soldier

Shelter is average rental rates, and mortage interest


Budget-Mission-7754

How convenient that prices are left out