By - Jews1nspace
To me it’s been simple, massive regression to the mean in almost every way all at once.
No injuries all year? Lots of injuries
Number one offense? Everyone got cold
Starters dominating? Now they’re not
Unstoppable bullpen? Random implosions
Winning every close game? Now we’re losing some
I don’t think we have any systemic issues, we’re just having one giant organization wide hiccup; just like how all our Farm system took 6 weeks to get goin
Offense has been good this stretch outside of Castillo starts and that one Cardinals game
Bullpen was great yesterday and so was Cole, but pitching needs to be better
We got swept by the Cardinals. And we let two of those games at one point
Don't even bring up the Cardinals series
The offense was good
The best offensive game was the last game and we allowed 12 runs.
So that was something..
The past few days the pitching seems to have been better, and so have some do the cold bats.
Did we actually have the #1 offense? I don't remember that.
Statistically yes. But we all know there were holes
As there's no team without holes. We should have Rizzo and Stanton back soon and hopefully Marp for the playoffs which makes the middle of the lineup much stronger.
Lineup is a lot deeper with everyone healthy.
Rizzo, Stanton and Torres were hitting at a 40+ HR pace into late June. That covered the obvious flaws at the bottom of the lineup. Rizzo, Stanton and Torres will most likely not come close to 40 HR’s now. The bottom of the lineup is still bad. That’s the difference offensively.
Yup and teams know our lineup isn’t the same and are walking judge a lot more now. Really need the other guys to step it up and Stanton needs to get healthy to bring a little depth back to the lineup. Really wish they’d give peraza a shot. He can’t be worse than IKF at the plate
I think we have the same systemic issues we’ve had the past 5 years. Nothing has changed, just a new catcher behind the plate.
just totally false...and I give you the #1 reason why - our standing defensively...we are #1 in baseball in DRS this season (we were next to last in 2021)
Our Pythagorean record is better because when we are winning we are winning by 5+ runs and the games we’re losing are like 1 or 2 run losses. I don’t see this as us being unlucky I just think our offense is very streaky and gets shut down against good pitching
We also don’t have our 3 or 4 hitter in the lineup and just lost Carpenter too.
Yeah, pretty sure Rizzo, Stanton, and Carp were important parts of the offense.
>our offense is very streaky and gets shut down against good pitching
But… that’s what unlucky underperformance is. A lot of team fanbases dismiss Pythagorean record as “well that’s only because we either score a ton or don’t score at all”, but the reality is that sort of thing isn’t at all sustainable for an offense and eventually the scoring will start to get spread out more evenly, and you’ll start winning more 1-2 run games.
Phillies in April/May had the same issue, then they went nuclear. Braves in April/May had the same issue, then they went nuclear. Even the Mariners fans were complaining about the same thing during a few stretches this season too IIRC. It’s frustrating as a fan, but baseball is a sport where you’re bound to get these little statistical glitches every once in a while over the course of 162 games
Yeah but the smaller the sample size, the more impact outliers have, and a lot of that positive run differential is a handful of absolute blowouts against bad teams.
There are 5 games where the Yankees racked up a +42 run differential. Over the other 22 games in that stretch they're -28.
That's what small sample sizes will do. (+24 of that +42 was in two against Boston, they're -10 in the other 25 games).
Edit: Addition is hard, 13 + 11 isn't 21.
This 1000x. That's the problem with the type of hitters Cashman gravitates towards, and Nick Swisher was an extreme example of this. They feast on the non-elite pitching and struggle against the better pitching. It works ok during the regular season, but not so much when they have to face the top teams in the postseason. Obviously, I'm not including the entire roster in this, just a general trend.
That's really the trend across all of baseball. There's really no team that hits great pitchers well anymore because of the shift, launch angle focus, poor plate discipline, etc
Is it new? I feel like elite pitchers have never gotten hit. That's what makes them elite.
Cashman's philosophy is that you get them to throw a ton of pitches and then tee off on the bullpen.
That was certainly the old approach. Now that every team has a half dozen guys who throw 100 MPH out of the bullpen it may not be quite as effective. I don't know the numbers.
Castillo allowed 3 ER last start. We killed Gilbert’s season era single-handedly Cease, ohtani, eovaldi, and Manoah have all gotten hit by this team too
Well, I think some of the better teams do a better job at manufacturing runs and aren't so prone to the boom/bust cycles that the Yankees are, which is why they seem to do poorly against the top shelf teams. Of course elite pitchers are going to be elite against everyone, but it seems like the Yankees get completely shut down by the better pitchers and aren't able to scratch together runs because too many hitters are swinging out of their shoes when sometimes all they need to do is get a single (e.g. Gleyber in last night's game).
1-2 run losses usually play at about a .500 rate in the long run
Even in games where we shoot ourselves in the foot like yesterday they are a break away from a win. Lately they don’t get those breaks
Yeah I agree w this. When our offense actually rains it fuckin pours, likely because of our team construction of live by the homer die by the homer.
We’re also a very disciplined team which is nice because walks are good but elite pitchers aren’t gonna give a lot of free passes. So even when we hit homers they’re gonna be solo shots
I think this team will turn the corner but this team has felt straight up bad rather than unlucky over the past 40 games
They are pressing now. You see it in the mistakes they are making. They've had some bad luck and some poor timing of both the offense and pitching slumping. So now they are trying to force things to happen and are making mistakes. You saw it last night with Benintendi getting too aggressive trying to steal 3rd and IKF trying to make up for Trevino getting caught off second.
I think the data shows we've been about average, just that things aren't going our way. We are playing better than our record indicates, but worse than we should be.
When you take out the outliers which are the 3 games we scored 15 runs, our record makes much more sense.
3 out of 27 wouldnt actually be "outliers" though. Thats the point. 3/27 is significant, Thats more than 11% of the entire sample. You can say theres high variance for sure, but they would probably not be considered outliers. Something occurring more than 1 out of 10 times isnt something that should be written off as statistical noise. Something is going on there that warrants further investigation.
They aren’t average. Average is what they are playing with no luck
Spencer Strider upvoted this post for sure
It’s called good old fashioned losing.
Good to slump in the middle of the season rather than the end. But we will see if we break out of it
For the "sample size" complainers: At +205 for the full season their pythagorean record is 76-35, off by the same 5 games. This is nothing more than a hiccup as the top response says.
For the "can't beat good teams" complainers: 71 of their 111 games have been against teams with a winning record. That is 10-20 more games against tougher opponents than any other team in a playoff position. They are 41-30 in those games.
There has been a crazy heat wave lately. I wouldn't read too much into anyone's performance in any direction over the past few weeks. Baseball has been sloppy all around. The extra innings automatic runner rule is also *incredibly stupid* and *not used in the playoffs* so I am not concerned with any weird turn of events that comes from those situations either.
If that pitcher doesn't make a crazy behind the back stab last night we're all having a very different conversation today.
*That's baseball, Suzyn.*
Every team thats off to a historical start experiences a massive regression at one point. The 2017 Dodgers were 91-36 and ended up 104-58. Still made the WS and lost to the cheaters. Well be fine
13-22 isnt that bad for a team that's running away with the pennant/division and taking it easy going into the playoffs. That's only the last 35 games. Were below .500 for the past 45 games mid season and still have another month+ to go w no end in sight.
The Dodgers went 13-22 because they had an 8-2 run to end the year. They were 5-20 from Aug 26th to September 20th. It was an atrocious month
> Well be fine
Does this mean that we'll win the WS or that we'll make the playoffs? The latter is assured and is not a big deal at all.
It means we’ll lose to a team that’s cheating somehow
Except for the 2022 dodgers
They sucked in june
We also are missing 3 of our best players right now.
Last night was more annoying than concerning
Agreed. That double steal was so fucking annoying. Ruocco even said, "odd to put LoCastro in for the trail runner..." and I on my couch said, "no, it's not. There's a double steal coming." If I figured it out, how long do you think it took Seattle to pick up on it? (Spoiler alert: two fucking seconds.)
Literally making little league mistakes on the basepaths. Infuriating stuff but we move on.
When times inevitably get tough, you can’t be running the bases like a coked up chihuahua…
Excellent analysis! The way I see it, the Yankees were once so 'hot' (lucky, good) that they could ignore structural flaws in their lineup, now they are normal---minus Stanton, Rizzo, Matty C, I know---and those holes in the lineup are becoming big issues. As is the youth of their rotation and their bullpen pitching bookoo innings.
I understand stats and analytics mean a lot in today's game, but I'm of the thought process that good teams lose close games. Great teams find a way to win those games. We were great for the first few months. This stretch of games, we are an average team. We have to be great again if we want a different outcome then the past few years.
> I’m of the thought process that good teams lose close games. Great teams find a way to win those games.
Great teams don’t get blown out all the time, either, so all you’re really saying is ‘great teams win more games than good teams.’
So great teams don’t lose close games? What games do they lose?
*None of them.*
When it comes to margin of victory, here's what good teams do: In games where the margin of victory is large, good teams have a superior record. Their win percentage declines as the margin of victory gets smaller. When you get to 1 run games, they hover around .500.
We were also getting *really* lucky early on. We had so many wins that were 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 w the difference being sloppy defense by the other team with rotation pitching way above their ability
If you take out four wins against the LOLRedSox and Royals, the run differential is -22.
It's not luck; the team is playing legitimately poorly against playoff contenders.
They probably weren’t as good as they were the first third of the season, they’re probably not as bad as they are the second third of the season, and the last third probably falls comfortably in between.
Sure it’s super frustrating now, but a 10.5 game lead buys breathing room. (It should also buy some comfortability calling up Peraza to play over IKF but that’s a different discussion).
"luck is the residue of preparation"
Luck is bullshit. Injuries can be luck. Skill is the opposite of luck. People talk about baseball like it's a random number generator. Playing a sport out here with a D&D dice roll. Theses are the most skilled players in the world at their job. It's the exact opposite of luck when teams and their scouting reports figure you out. It's not luck that Judge got walked in a clutch spot last night so they could get to a worse hitter.
The Yankees problems are mental, whether that's errors from mental exhaustion from a long season or panic that they're in a slump. Dudes are changing their approach with runners on, making bad mistakes on the base paths, being real sloppy with pitching. Sometimes the defense is on, sometimes it's fucking terrible.
But it's not luck.
Blowouts and low scoring losses, less unlucky than you’d think
Is our offense the "best" over that span or is it a few high scoring outliers ?
If you remove the two games against Boston before the ASG they're -10 over 25 games.
I just hope the can get a winning streak together. Would much rather home field in the ALCS if we make it.
Rather this in the doldrums of July and August than September.
How many innings can Pythagoras pitch?
it is good luck when they play well?
Pythagorean really isn't a good predictor for that stretch.
They're + in runs because they have a few very large blowout wins. Over a season that tends to even out, over a month those outliers will affect the stats.
Makes sense. We aren't getting blown out at all. Even when we lose, we tend to be competitive right to the end. While the team hasn't been playing great, I think the team is in better shape than most fans realize.
re: fucking shit, agreed.
Its NAIVE tho - the province of sports shows and their more credulous followers - that the Yankees could have kept that pace up for the whole season.
There's just too much that could, and does, go wrong.
The sample size is too small for this to be relevant.
If it wasn’t for judge’s record chasing, this team would’ve been getting crushed by fans and the media the entire 4 weeks. I mean they still are, but not to the extent because judge is single handedly trying to carry this team, and almost succeeding.
It just seems the Yankees should have kept Gallo for his luck
"Unlucky"?... Luck has nothing to do with the lack of drive that the Yanks have been showing within the past four months, just as luck has nothing to do with the Yanks having shown no real desire to have a championship ball club within the past three seasons. The problem isn't about bad luck. It's about bad management starting with Hal Steinbrenner as owner of this franchise.
Unlucky and playing bad are two different things.
Having the bases loaded is not scoring a run is not bad luck. Bad luck is Cole throwing a gem and still losing the game
I was told this was the greatest team ever and Sexy Nesty was gonna put all of my fears to bed. So fuck these posts. They're gonna win 90+ or maybe even 100 games and then flame out in the playoffs as always.