By - scumble_2_temptation
Wizards doesn't control the price of singles. The aftermarket does. It's not like they sat around a table and said, "We want Ragavan to be worth $80! Let's add dash to the card to make sure it gets there!"
And then... we'll ban it as we twirl our mustaches! Wizards really doesn't want to ban Raggy because it could potentially sell packs in the future.
Does he deserve a ban? In Modern? Ehhhhh... there's an argument for it, but I personally don't think he's there yet. Lurrus seems closer to getting the axe in my mind. In Legacy? I've heard plenty of people say that he's way more busted in Legacy... so perhaps more likely there.
This. People always forget that the price of the single cards is actually regulated mostly by the 3rd party market. (Outside of reprinting that Wizards can do to improve the amount of cards available). As weird as it sounds in today's world, this game is actually a trading card game, where opening cards from packs to make your deck better and trading more cards from you friends is the idea that Wizards bases their product. It is just that everybody wants to run fully optimized decks with 4x of every relevant card (which I personally do and prefer as well) that drives the aftermarket and the prices crazy. Buying into powerful and popular decks is always s risk that you have to be willing to take.
That said, I am pretty sure they won't ban any MH2 cards yet and of they touch modern this time, it will be about companions as mentioned also above. That kind of approach would of course have a huge impact to DS decks as well of course, but we'll see on Tuesday what happens.
I mean yes and no. The price of cards on the secondary market is determined by the market.
That being said, WOTC controls the supply. And we absolutely should not give WOTC a pass for printing obviously pushed format staples like Force-of-Swords-To-Plowshares, and Wow-That's-A-Lot-Of-Text-On-A-1-Drop at *Mythic* in a *double price* set. That's a clear a deliberate attempt on their part to short the supply of a card, so that it is worth more and has more reprint equity.
>It's not like they sat around a table and said, "We want Ragavan to be worth $80! Let's add dash to the card to make sure it gets there!"
They didn't say exactly 80 dollars, but they did sit at a table to decide how to make it a chase card rather than an average one. They know the secondary market exists, and they know certain cards will have high prices long before sets come out.
As regarding knowing in advance if they'll ban certain cards, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt there.
Eeehh when you have economists on staff, it is very hard to believe that they didn't have any idea what the pricing would be given the stats and rarity of the card. After all, they have print volume data and can project high/low demand volumes and the expected prices they would see given the available supply. For them, mapping the supply/demand curve is a much easier task given the information they have.
They won't know the exact price and they don't control, nor do they recognize, the secondary market for (IMHO) legal reasons but I think they had some idea where it would fall on the price-band but it just overshot what they were expecting given demand for MTG overall has been higher than their models were suggesting.
I don't see them banning Ragavan yet... they seem to be a bit slow at banning new stuff unless it is completely destroying play. While Ragavan is a pain, he still has a fair bit of competition.
If they do, then FML... I would need to do some hard thinking about all of this.
Lurrus, on the other hand, is a dead man walking.
Yeah, I agree they take notice of the secondary market and they're very aware of the prices of their cards... but I also think that they're not setting goal prices when designing new cards. If they are, they've done a bad job at it. They've tried to hype up cards as the face of set, only to have said card flop and not see play in any format.
Reprints on the other hand? Those are known entities. They know exactly how much those cards are worth and it definitely affects pricing on packs. If they put too much value into a set, we run into packs getting sold for above MSRP (like OG Modern Masters). So, while I'm not trying to say they ignore pricing, the community largely ends up dictating pricing for singles by demand, WotC just rides that wave after the fact when making reprints.
Yeah agree. I don't think they have a price pegged for a new card that they are trying to hit. I think they probably just have a feasible secondary market price. Basically a rough estimate based on the meta they know they are releasing into (eg: card x, with x abilities, x rarity, and x cmc has a theoretical price boundary of n to n+std deviation).
They would want to know this so that the set they are releasing will hit their given sell through volumes based on protected demand additionally so they hit the print runs correctly.
Functionally, they want it to be good but not too good. If it is too good, they are leaving money on the table (ie: should have juiced the price or held back on the pushed cards). If it isn't good enough, they either are sitting on supply or dumping it, neither is good for them.
Reprints, 100% agree. They know exactly what the supply/demand curve is and they are actively trying to tamp down on demand by increasing supply. They do have price targets for reprints. I think this is why the continue to say they don't pay attention to secondary markets for fear of being accused of price manipulation. They want to be able to go back to the well as often as they would like and whenever they would like without having to deal with whatever complications could be introduced by recognizing secondary markets.
Hahahaha so why they didnt print it at rare?
I know they don't control the secondary market, but they do look at it. The fly by night aspect of "multiple formats will be affected" is truly terrifying to me because of how fucking vague it is. I bet they get off on this kind of thing at this point
Wotc isnt some evil entity bent on your personal misery just because they might ban the monkey that should never have been printed in the first place dog. At least not more so than any other american company
Do you worry like this every time they announce a banlist? You need to learn to stop assuming that something is going to ruin the game before you're given any actual reason to believe that it will do that. Banning Ragavan wouldn't "ruin modern," and it's not racketeering to ban cards. Modern was fine before Ragavan, and if it gets banned, modern will probably still be fine after it.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t touch modern.
Whenever you buy into top tier decks you should be prepared for the possibility of bannings. This has been the case for decades.
You should for sure quit
I don’t understand, you gave people two options to advise you. I genuinely think you should quit, the singles market will frustrate you inevitably with your mindset. You even phrased it, “how are they going to ruin the format?!” Like…you’re waiting to be burned by the market and then waiting to quit. Just do it.
Just wants the community to throw a pity party for him
Nothing is getting banned in modern Tuesday.
Ragavan isn't going anywhere. He promotes interactive gameplay which seems to be the style that design is aiming for. Lurrus may get banned although I don't think this will happen either. Lurrus' biggest crime isn't his power level but how he pushes a lot of beloved (and frankly interesting) cards out of the meta with his mana value restriction.
The dark horse to get banned, and the only one I half expect is Omnath. Wizards has a habit of nuking 4c good stuff piles and Omnath is the lynchpin for several 4c money / goodstuff piles.
Modern is in a really good place right now and I would like to see "no changes" or a few unbans. The format gets more interesting with Green Sun's Zenith, Punishing Fire, and maybe that play a creature draw a card thing for elves.
We shall see on Tuesday.
GSZ and punishing fire can’t be unbanned as they slot too cleanly into 4c pile.
I appreciate the reassurance, but the specter of it being possible is enough to make me lose my shit in the meantime
Here's the bad news, Ragavan will almost certainly be banned eventually for similar reasons to Deathrite Shaman, as a one mana card that does everything.
Here's the good news, there's no way in hell they will ban it in modern until at least a couple more years have passed and WOTC thinks people have forgotten how much they paid for that damn monkey. So you can probably relax for now.
LoL, nope. Monkey isn’t even close to DRS’ levels of brokenness. DRS got the axe in Legacy because by the end of his run there every deck started with 4-of-DRS. Is this the case in Modern - far from it.
It's not as powerful as drs imo, not even close. It's almost a dress downed, red version if anything. But the idea that they'd fuck with a creature that dies to every single removal spell in the format is stupid. That being said, I don't trust wotc. Let's hope they don't screw the pooch on Tuesday.
I didn't say it was as powerful as DRS, I said it would be banned for similar reasons. Personally I think Ragavan is weaker than DRS but leads to worse gameplay patterns.
*That being said, I don't trust wotc.*
After the last two and a half years, no one should.
Ragavan is far stronger than DRS. Boomers are delusional
Your first sentence is explained by the second. Neat.
Ragavan has to not only attack, but also connect face to generate any kind of value. DRS just has to exist.
Ragavan is fantastic on turn 1 and/or if you’re attacking.
DRS is always good.
Top decking DRS late game does almost nothing. Ragavan can be dashed late game for instant value. People are way too traumatized by DRS from old metas but it is completely harmless by today's standards
What? DRS drains, gains life and is graveyard hate. Burn played it solely so it would have something to do late game.
If you think Ragavan is stronger than DRS you didn’t play modern when DRS was legal.
I bet you also thought stoneforge and jtms were too strong for modern
Nope. DRS is a much better card than stoneforge or JTMS. It’s the best thing to do in any format it is in including legacy.
We can go back and forth all day but my money says that if you think DRS is worse than ragavan in modern you’re either new to the game or not very good.
DRS dominated modern pro tours (two top 8s with a massive number of copies) and forced a ban just before pro tour: born of the gods so it wouldn’t be 8 Jund decks again. Meanwhile, Ragavan isn’t even played in the best deck in modern.
It seems unlikely modern will be affected. I’d be VERY surprised if ragavan was hit. If anything, I’d think lurrus or bauble.
I can work around that, and change the decklist as it changes, but a ragavan ban would be it for me
You and everyone else who bought it. Which is why they won’t do it.
Your real worst case is they ban everything around the monkey. Similar to banning the hogaak enablers before the card itself
If this is your outlook and you know that wotc bans cards at times, why did you buy in to a top tier deck with expensive potentially bannable cards, this outlook is hilarious.
I doubt they’ll ban anything. On the off chance they do hit Lurrus GDS will still be a very powerful deck and will likely remain Tier 1. You don’t have much to worry about.
Agree with these sentiments. I would guess there is about a 50/50 chance something gets banned.
If anything, I would expect 1 of 3 outcomes:
1. Lurrus ban
2. Bauble ban
3. A or B ban, + 1 card from 4c blink (Yorion, Omnath, or Ephemerate)
Ragardless which of the above outcomes happen, Death's Shadow with still be in tact, and an excellent deck choice. Ragavan shouldn't be going anywhere.
Without daze and wasteland in the format, the monke isn't overpowered.
Rest easy Monday night:)
Thank you for being cool and reasonable
Thank you for the kind reassurance, stranger friend 🙂
So on the scale of likelihood:
1. No changes.
2. Mishra’s Bauble, Omnath, maybe some stuff from the combo decks, just in case.
I would like them to ban the reserved cards in Legacy. Why? Because I can’t afford them and that seems to be the only argument of the “Ban Ragavan brigade”.
Someone said that Lurrus is on the chopping block, may be, but that still wouldn’t make me switch to 3+ mana cards. There’s a card called Counterspell in Modern. I wouldn’t give the blue mages the pleasure of being ahead when the cast it. :P
I could honestly see 3feri for unfun play patterns.
All cascade meta, eh?
No, just takes away interesting counterplay against control
> I would like them to ban the reserved cards in legacy
Which reserved list cards? There aren't any except Volc played in UR delver, and there isn't going to be a ban of all reserved list cards in the format.
Nobody tell this guy about what happened after MH1.
Anyone playing at the time of Hogaak saw the writing on the walls. Hogaak was bananas, and actually pretty cheap at the time because we knew he wasn't sticking around in the format.
Hoogak? I didnt play mtg at that time, but i heard about it.
I was around for it in theory. I was playing jank at the time, so I didn't really feel like I had to take tums by the gallon. Finally treat myself to a real tier 1 deck, and then this.
You didn't play through hoogak summer then... that was miserable and I am glad they banned it... if they were to ban an MH2 card after it's been released this long I wouldn't be surprised one bit
New to magic?
Yes, one year and a half into it.
Mh2 has multiple cards which honestly would probably be best being axed across a couple different formats, ragavan in legacy should go and i personally don’t think its great for modern either. That said, it wont shake consumer confidence if they ban a mh2 card for two reasons. The first is that most enfranchised magic players expect wotc to pull crap like this at this point, where they print hyper pushed format staples that never should have seen the light of day then have to ban them to fix their mistake. Its basically the modern horizon tagline at this point. Also, honestly, theres a lot of stuff in mh2 that many enfranchised and more competitively leaning players aren’t fans of. Im more of a legacy player so to give a sideways analogy, ur delver has been a meta staple for years. People have argued about id delver is too powerful of a blue tempo creature since innistrad, and that discussion stopped with mh2. Why? Because delver is no longer the scariest threat in delver decks. Murktide, ragavan, and DRC are all more problematic. Obviously over time new and better cards will be printed, but theres a difference between power creep and a power nuke.
Been around off and on since revised when I was in elementary school, circa 1994
I'm truly under the assumption that they don't give a flying fuck about consumer confidence at all
That’s dumb. That’s virtually all they care about. Otherwise they’d abolish the RL tomorrow and double revenue.
A ton of powerful cards are banned. You knew that when you purchased Ragavan. On you.
Oko, Uro, Astrolabe, Hogaak, Once Upon a time. Uro less so, since it dodged bans but the writing was on the wall.
Nothing banned but some unbans
Modern is too healthy and diverse currently for anything to be banned. However, I won’t be surprised if Lurrus is banned from being a companion
My honest 100% guess is that \[\[Mishra's Bauble\]\] and \[\[Sigarda's Aid\]\] gets banned. Bauble is the cookie cutter example of WHY cards get banned in modern. There's almost no reason not to play it in every single deck in modern. Sigarda's Aid, in my opinion, is what makes Hammer a degenerate deck. Being able to "oops" into a win turn 2 with SA is just toxic for the format, and the banning of SA doesn't nuke the deck out of the format. These two bans save Lurrus from being banned. I've seen people suggest Omnath being banned, but I'm skeptical at best that it's good enough to get banned. Its ETB trigger allows it to be interacted with via instant speed removal, and it punishes the format for ditching \[\[Path to Exile\]\] in favour of \[\[Prismatic Ending\].
***IN MY OPINION***
Lurrus is in anout 40 percent of decks according to goldfish I think even without bauble it would still be everywhere. Hammer time, burn, and jund together are about 23 percent and those decks dont necessitate bauble, most lists dont even run it.
There is an argument that Lurrus gets banned for the same reason Birthing Pod got banned in 2015, that being that it homogenised the modern format. That being said, Lurrus (and other companion decks) have around the same winrate as non companion decks according to data another Reddit user compiled. **That being said**, I would have no issue if the companion mechanic completely got nuked out of the format.
Pod was banned because it restricted design space for creatures. It had absolutely nothing to do with homogenized decklists.
As a very perceptive commenter (me) noted in that thread, you can’t look at the comparable win rates of companion and non-companion in the current meta and conclude that companions are fine. The only non-companion decks left are the ones that can effectively compete with companion decks.
I’m banning you from saying “that being said”
my diction could be expanded
Pod didn't homogenize anything. All pod lists looked fairly similar, but no non-pod decks were "splashing" for pod
I would consider that pod homogenising the format. [This is what WOTC said in regards toward banning pod. ](https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/feature/banned-and-restricted-announcement-2015-01-19). Maybe i’m just misunderstanding what they meant by this, but to me it sounds like they’re attempting to promote a more diverse modern.
I think there's a meaningful difference between being a dominant deck and homogenizing the format. Pod was definitely a dominant deck, in that it took up a lot of the meta share. Lurrus isn't just one deck, but a package that goes into a bunch of decks. The Lurrus package homogenizes the format by slotting easily into a bunch of different archetypes
[Mishra's Bauble](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/4/5/45bbbf9b-8fee-4c32-a513-02dac6ac8a39.jpg?1599709584) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Mishra%27s%20Bauble) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/2xm/274/mishras-bauble?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/45bbbf9b-8fee-4c32-a513-02dac6ac8a39?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text)
[Sigarda's Aid](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/5/3/531da950-dc96-4050-94a8-e01b73ddd965.jpg?1608911983) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Sigarda%27s%20Aid) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/cmr/384/sigardas-aid?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/531da950-dc96-4050-94a8-e01b73ddd965?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text)
[Path to Exile](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/e/9/e9d36855-c38a-4bba-a642-cff3f81e057e.jpg?1599709071) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Path%20to%20Exile) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/2xm/25/path-to-exile?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/e9d36855-c38a-4bba-a642-cff3f81e057e?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text)
^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
So Im a little new in the scene and this may be obvious to veterans out there but…..Bauble has been available since Coldsnap, its a great card unbound to any deck type, how has it just now become a format necessity? Im not questioning your analysis, just curios, for science
It took a long time for people to realise how good it was, and Darcy being released brought it to everyone's attention.
AspiringSpike made a really good assessment concerning Bauble on his stream not long after UR Murktide became popular I think. Since its release, Bauble has only been getting stronger, and will continue to do so as more cards are printed which care about Delirium or amount of cards in the graveyard, since the cost to put it in your deck is really low.
Free Cyclers arent really that good of cards unless they have something that benefits it. Bauble didnt have decent payoffs (except artifact decks like lantern) until it was abused by GDS and going hyper tempo and lurrus as a card advantage engine. Lurrus and now delirium matters decks benefit a shit ton from bauble. Unfortunately, they're very very synergistic and powerful
The T2 Hammer Time win after T1 Sigarda’s Aid involves a lot of pieces in your opening hand. I feel like that doesn’t need to be cut out of the format, especially cuz Hammer Time is an interesting, interact-able deck.
If a piece did need to be banned out of it, though, my first thoughts are to Lurrus (who should probably go for other reasons) or Urza’s Saga (who I don’t think should be banned, but would significantly nerf the deck).
Can we all agree that mythic rarity should be abandoned???
Or be reserved for alternate printings.
Probably they won't touch Modern, and even if they do, Ragavan would still be around.
That said, if you are _really_ concerned about the bans, you shouldn't take the risk and buy into whatever deck includes said presumably broken card.
Rag likely won’t get banned. It’s worse in legacy and would likely get a ban there first and they likely won’t ban it in two formats until MH2 has fully run its course. You are most likely to lose lurrus or bauble as the are likely the worst offenders in modern currently.