T O P

[Minecraft Speedrunning] A chance of 1 in 7.5 trillion - The Time Dream (might've) Cheated

[Minecraft Speedrunning] A chance of 1 in 7.5 trillion - The Time Dream (might've) Cheated

Ltates

If you haven't watched stand-up maths [Matt Parker's vid](https://youtu.be/8Ko3TdPy0TU) on this please do! He really drives home how insane Dream's probability would have to be for this to occur.


Wrought-Irony

I'm still trying to understand how ANYBODY could beat minecraft in 11 minutes without mods. It just seems like too much of the game us based on random chance of finding the right tool or material at the right time..


EscapingTheUnwanted

It is incredibly random, you're right! Some speedrunners may spend upwards of 10 hours a day on the game creating world after world until they get an ideal start, and a large number of runs may be cut short if they mess up or something unlucky happens to kill the run. It's basically a full time job of waiting for that good run.


feliscat

That's insane. God bless people and their hobbies but what a way to spend your time!


zzonked7

It is insane. It seems a weird choice to speedrun minecraft out of any game if it's so heavily luck based. At least other games weight more toward skill than just pure luck.


einmaldrin_alleshin

When it comes to highly competitive speedruns, there's usually an element of RNG involved, simply because runners start implementing tricks that are at or beyond the limit of what can be executed reliably. The recent SMB any% run by Niftski is a great example for that - [here is a breakdown by Summoning Salt](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rIJNT7dCmE). This record took a lot of practice and skill, but in the end the sun and stars had to align to turn it into a perfect run. Minecraft is RNG first, but otherwise it's not fundamentally different: In order to get onto the leaderboard, you don't just need good luck, but also deep knowledge of the game and spot-on decision making.


swirlythingy

SMB is a very bad example to compare to Minecraft, because there's no RNG involved whatsoever. All Niftski had to do was execute a precise set of inputs perfectly and he was guaranteed the record. Yes, the inputs required are almost inhumanly difficult, but the point is that Minecraft speedruns can't even offer that basic guarantee.


einmaldrin_alleshin

Yes, it's in theory a completely deterministic game, but in practice anything that involves single frame precision (1/30th of a second) input is well beyond the point where humans can consistently pull them off. This is even more pronounced in another game that is completely deterministic: Trackmania. Some of the game's shortcuts involve precision to a degree that is so uncontrollable that players have little more control over it than throwing dice. So what I'm trying to say is: Some games deal the players a hand of cards and it's up to the players' skill and practice to achieve the best result with those cards. Other games always deal the same hand of cards, but the players' skill and practice affects the chance of achieving the best result. It's different, but it leads to the same thing: Once a speedrun is optimized enough, improvement comes down to grind.


swirlythingy

The card analogy would work if "the best result with those cards" was what we were measuring here. Unfortunately, it's actually "the best result with *any* cards".


einmaldrin_alleshin

The cards in this analogy were supposed to be the levels of the respective games.


polypor

You could argue that minecraft takes more skill because it's not just memorising routes, the fact that it's different every time means that you have to play efficiently in order to save time, good speedrunners have around a 25-30 minute average which is insanely consistent. There are definitely elements of randomness but no one plays specifically for world record, everyone wants to maintain a solid average and WR is something that happens due to good luck and consistent skill. Calling it pure luck is just a misunderstanding of the actual skill required to play a video game not only extremely well but also extremely constistently. RNG mechanics doesn't automatically mean it comes down to luck, ask any poker or MTG player.


zzonked7

I guess I didn't mean it's *all* pure luck, just that the top times possibly weight more heavily towards luck compared to other games. The idea that for a good speedrunner the time could already be determined before the run even starts gives me that idea. I guess maybe other games feel like you have more hope right at the beginning? And don't get me wrong I love minecraft, I'm playing it right now as I'm typing this lol.


AnyWays655

Aye, to me the most interesting speed runs involve adjusting strategies on the fly, while I don't like MC cause it's just too random, some random in speed runs makes them more interesting IMO.


swirlythingy

You can argue that good RNG is necessary but not sufficient for a record, but that doesn't change the fact that it is very much necessary. If a skilled runner can consistently get 25 minutes, but the WR is 11 minutes, then the runner's skill is clearly not the dominant factor in whether a run will be WR or not.


Wrought-Irony

But then how could anyone tell the difference between that and what dream showed he did? If it's an incredibly unlikely series of events already... Edit: not defending dream, just curious about the process.


im_bi_not_queer

1) speedrunners are GOOD at this. they know when a run is trashed and do it for hours and even whole days to get good seeds 2) there’s an obvious difference between odds in the millions and something you could spend the rest of your life doing and never achieve (odds in the trillions)


Pseudoboss11

> 2) there’s an obvious difference between odds in the millions and something you could spend the rest of your life doing and never achieve (odds in the trillions) The 1 in 7.5 trillion estimate is not the chance of that particular run getting that lucky, it's the chance of _anyone in the Minecraft speedrunning community would get that lucky_, adjusted for how often they stream. You'd have to play thousands of games per second for your entire life to get that lucky.


farahad

That's not really how statistics works. You could trade 200 times with piglins tomorrow and kill 150 blazes and get that lucky; it's just very improbable. You'd *probably* have to play millions of games to get those kinds of results, but it *could* happen in your next 6 games. That said, it's *so improbable*, and the anomalies are so obviously tailored to help his speed run in a surreptitious way, that we can be fairly certain that he cheated.


Faera

To clarify, you'd have to play thousands of games per second to get to that 1 in 7.5 trillion figure. It's basically the highest possible probability that they could feasibly come up with, accounting for all sorts of biases such as the possibility that other players could have gotten the same luck and he just happened to be the one who got it.


starlightay

There are different ways in which people can get lucky. The ways in which Dream got “lucky” were consistent over a series of runs, rather than him getting lucky one time. Instead of thinking of it like he won the lottery (lucky), think of it as him counting cards in blackjack (getting consistently “luckier” results than expected).


Wrought-Irony

Yeah, I guess I figure it would have to be stuff like that. I suppose it's just abit confusing since a legit speedrunner would have to spend so much time trying to find the right world in the first place, it's already a pretty "lucky" thing before they even start recording..


daavor

Another part is that Dream (allegedly) altered a pretty obvious variable. It's like, imagine running through a randomly generated maze, then you meet a minotaur who challenges you to a dice game, then you have to run out of the maze. Most of the luck in modern speedrunning is about getting a good maze, and honestly it'd be hell to detect someone fixing that, though it would also be harder to fix. Dream weighted the minotaur's dice, so the probabilities are really easy to check. (and again, the data was gathered over many failed runs as well as the famous one, it wasn't just one lucky set of rolls, he was too consistently too lucky with the dice)


Wrought-Irony

That's an excellent metaphor


oneonetwooneonetwo

Yeah, just like we already know the distribution of a fair die there's literally a table in the game that sets out what the probability is. After that you're left with a fairly straightforward hypothesis test to see how that number compares to the observed evidence


starlightay

Yeah to be honest I think this post did a really bad job explaining all the evidence against him. If you want to understand better the statistical reasons I would recommend checking out the video linked at the top of this thread.


Incorrect_Oymoron

It's less like counting cards, more like he bought a few hundred thousand lotto tickets and won every one.


ze_shotstopper

Many of the top speed runners nowadays stream their attempts (which is how dream got caught) and there's a very noticeable difference in how the game plays out with the altered drop rates. SmallAnt has a great video on it where he tries to see how big of a difference the altered odds made, and according to him it was a massive difference in how you approached the game.


Pendrul

The data collected to determine he cheated wasn't from one 10 minute speedrun. It was the accumulation of six streams worth of speedruns. It isn't he was lucky one time.


bubliksmaz

Because dream played on stream, a lot. You can see his luck is consistently far too good. Watch the Matt Parker vid if you haven't seen it yet.


IaniteThePirate

From what I understand, what got Dream wasn’t just incredible luck in one run. He streamed his attempts so what people looked at was impossible luck consistently occurring over many, many runs.


lucasnarsta

It’s the different between unlikely odds and astronomical


woodlark14

Its a massive amount of luck, but there is also a massive element of skill. The strategy is to loot a village and enter the nether immediately (generally by repairing a broken portal or lava buckets). Next the runner locates a bastion and nether fortress, in a world record run this has to happen pretty much immediately, then mine gold from the bastion to trade for pearls and obsidian. From here they kill blazes till they have enough rods and build an exit portal at the best point to get as close as possible to the stronghold. There's some math involved in this and some runs have gotten a portal to appear in the portal room. Then go straight into the end and use the beds gathered from the village to kill the dragon the moment it comes to perch.


TheSovereignGrave

...Use beds to kill the Ender Dragon?


daavor

So in Minecraft you respawn at the last bed you've slept in if you die (or at the world's spawn otherwise). For various reasons, and also personal developer amusement presumably, the game is coded so that if you place and then try to sleep in one of the alternate dimensions (Nether and End) it creates a massive explosion. This will mostly kill you, unless there's some blocks in the way to soak up part of the explosion. The most effective way to kill the ender dragon is to wait till it 'perches' (hovers over a small pillar in the center of the arena) and using a particular configuration of blocks and the natural structures so you dont die, blow up as many beds in its face as you can. This is so much damage you dont even need to worry about destroying the crystals that heal it around the arena, like you typically would have done before this method was developed.


Pipistrele

If you try to interact with the bed when not in overworld, it immediately explodes, as a cheeky in-game measure to prevent you from sleeping in these areas - however, splash damage also works on other enemies, and since Ender Dragon pretty much flies into you all the time, you can lure it towards strategically placed beds and explode them at the right time to wreck the reptile up.


TheCygnusLoop

Another route is using a shipwreck to get iron and wood, entering the nether through an underwater lava ravine, and using string from bartering for beds.


daavor

There's definitely a lot of chance, but there's also a heck of a lot of skill and adaptability involved in knowing how to take advantage of all the different kinds of chances that can pop up. The big change between the time Dream's thing blew up and now is that people realized bastions (a structure in the game, introduced at the same time as the bartering mechanic) sorta short circuit the bartering luck problem. And once this happened, people also realized they could use the other items from bastions/bartering to short circuit other parts of the speedrun. But yes, you're right, its all very based on the location of structures. Do they get a village/portal/shipwreck near spawn with the necessary resources? Do they get a bastion and a fortress quickly in the nether? Does their second portal land near where a stronghold generated?


Idrhorrible

You should check out The Weekly Thing youtube page, they post a breakdown of the run when there’s a new world record set, which has become pretty common this year which is crazy. Crazy game to speedrun, but it’s super interesting


DocC3H8

I love that video, and what helped me really visualise how unlikely Dream's run was, was the gambling record analogy: Basically, what Dream "achieved" was on the level of breaking the world record for most consecutive winning throws in craps, then immediately going to the roulette table and breaking the record for the most consecutive roulette wins.


daavor

Matt Parker's video is also a great contrast to Dream's rebuttal paper in showing the role of third party experts, and what it actually looks like when an expert contributes helpfully to a conversation. He cuts through the irrelevant details, has the fluency and expertise to grok the big picture arguments and think of relevant scenarios to compare to and check his analyses with. Okay, admittedly part of that is the role not just of an expert but of someone with a talent and passion for educating and explaining. I've said it a few other places but the absurdity of parading out a PhD in astrophysics to give a nitpicky counteranalysis (with god so much fluff in the language) was so laughably obviously an attempt to appeal to authority rather than a genuine investigation that it was the nail in the coffin of my doubts that Dream had cheated.


Neeerdlinger

Yep, I think Dream was hoping to overawe the average person with scary maths, whereas someone like Matt Parker could very quickly cut through any fluff in there.


zebediah49

This is also funny, because that kind of thing draws disapproval from the serious side of the scientific community. We put an astonishingly large amount of training and effort into making some fiendishly complicated scientific work as friendly as possible when we present it to the public. To do the opposite is just sad and counterproductive.


Neeerdlinger

But the guy had a Harvard degree, so you can’t dispute his findings! [/s]


Jakegender

i love matt parker, what a stand up guy, huh?


Neeerdlinger

He does a great job of explaining complicated things simply.


JBSquared

Whenever I hear the name Matt Parker I think of some weird fusion between Matt Stone and Trey Parker.


ChuckCarmichael

And you still had Dream fans underneath that video doing a recreation of that scene from Dumb and Dumber. "So you're saying that there's still a chance." Their argument boiled down to: The chance isn't 0, therefore it could happen. I just assume that those fans are little kids and young teenagers who have yet to learn about probability in school.


Mad_Aeric

Even people who've "learned" about probability rarely understand it on an intuitive level. Just look at how many educated people can't process something as simple as the Monty Hall problem.


ChuckCarmichael

The Monty Hall problem is one of my favorites. You have the old stories with Marilyn vos Savant and how all these PhDs and mathematicians tried to tell her she was wrong, even though she wasn't, and those are quite fun. But even nowadays, whenever this comes up on youtube or reddit, even when these old stories get mentioned and how all those supposedly smart people were wrong, you still have people who absolutely refuse to accept that it's not 50/50. There are all these explanations out there, all these examples like "imagine it's 100 doors instead", even a Mythbusters episode where they demonstrated that it's 2/3 for switching and 1/3 for staying, but they don't care. They think it's 50/50, and everybody who says otherwise is stupid. They're literally trying to argue against facts, as if maths is like politics where everybody can be right, depending on the viewpoint.


Mad_Aeric

The thing that kills me is that it's *so* easy once explained. You're probably wrong in your initial guess, then you're given the ability to invert that. Revealing the empty door does *not* change the initial odds, there's always going to be an empty door available to open. I suspect part of the reason people stick to their wrong guess is that people *hate* being wrong about even the pettiest things, and will fight you tooth and nail about it despite overwhelming evidence. I swear, if I could fix just one thing about humans, that would be it.


Letty_Whiterock

The easiest way for me to understand it was that instead of there being 3 doors, there's 1,000, and 998 doors are opened, aside from yours and one other one. And the problem is basically the same, but the situation is exaggerated enough that it's easier to understand.


StormStrikePhoenix

Why would that change anything at all? It still feels like it comes down to a 50/50 chance, even if that's obviously not true.


Letty_Whiterock

Ah, I can do my best to explain fully. Using that base, you choose one door out of 1,000. Let's say door 366. Now, I open up every door but #366 and #930. What are the chances that the door you chose happened to be the correct one? The answer is 1 in 1,000. Me opening the other doors doesn't change the fact you chose #366 out of 1,000 different options. Which means, between your door and door #930, it's much less likely that you happened to have chosen the correct door out of 1,000 different doors. So you should instead switch to the only other closed door.


starlitepony

True, but the tricky part is that this depends on the fact that you know what the correct door is. If you're just randomly opening 998 doors, and you just happen to not open the correct one, the odds actually *are* 50/50 for me to win whether I stay or switch.


Letty_Whiterock

Yes however part of the situation is i open up specifically 998 other doors with nothing in them. Leaving only your door and one other one. One of which definitely has the prize behind it.


caeloequos

I'm two days late to this thread, but I actually understand this now, thank you.


PegasusAssistant

If you haven't watched this recent [vsauce video](https://youtu.be/_ArVh3Cj9rw) on reason, I'd recommend it. He basically explores the ramifications of human reasoning being evolved for group decision making and that today in individualist, modern societies the biases that made reasoning efficient for a group in the past are the core of why humans are so bad at reasoning as individuals.


StormStrikePhoenix

>The thing that kills me is that it's so easy once explained. You're probably wrong in your initial guess, then you're given the ability to invert that. Revealing the empty door does not change the initial odds, there's always going to be an empty door available to open. This still does not intuitively explain why opening one of the doors transfers its probability to one door and not both of them. >I suspect part of the reason people stick to their wrong guess is that people hate being wrong about even the pettiest things, and will fight you tooth and nail about it despite overwhelming evidence. I swear, if I could fix just one thing about humans, that would be it. No, it's just super unintuitive. I've been good at math, I've taken calculus, I've had it explained to me plenty of times, but none of them have ever stuck to me; I only say the correct answer because I was already told it. I feel like your explanation has kind of helped, but I promise you it will not be with me within the next week.


NoIDontWantTheApp

I don't know if this will help, but I think it's a bit over-confusing to think about the probabilities "transfering" from one door to another, and from what I've seen from other discussions on here it causes issues for some people. The best way to think about it IMO is just to go back to basics and lay out the possible scenarios. Suppose the car is behind door A, and you pick one of the three at random. You then have three equally probable outcomes: * You pick A. Monty will show you one of the other two doors; either way SWITCHING LOSES. * You pick B. Monty will show you C; SWITCHING WINS. * You pick C. Monty will show you B; SWITCHING WINS. From this perspective, there are three equal branches, and switching wins in two of them. So it's a 2/3 chance to win if you switch. This approach also has the advantage that it's basically the same approach that you can use for any other probabilistic situation. So, at least to me, it makes the monty hall problem not feel 'weird' any more.


DocC3H8

To be fair, many people are also bad at explaining the Monty Hall problem in a simple and concise way, so no wonder people get confused. I found that it's much more effective to start off by saying that switching effectively causes the car to transform into a goat and the goats to turn into cars, and *then* going into the statistics.


Neeerdlinger

Yep, watched that video and it put it way beyond doubt for me.


Mad_Aeric

I originally learned about the whole stink from that video. I've been tuning out anything Dream related for ages now, but you get math involved, and that peaks my interest. Didn't take long at all to convince me beyond doubt that the guy's a pumpkin eater, even aside from his other scumbaggery. That paper he submitted in his "defense" is hilariously bad.


Kryostar

> He’s the luckiest guy in the entire gaming world Not just the gaming world. He would have been the luckiest human being to have ever lived. [Those odds are more insane than you can imagine.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ko3TdPy0TU) Edit: Just realized how many people have left comments linking to Matt's video. If you haven't watched and got free time then be sure to watch it.


Im_your_life

Why did you put in your title that Dream "might" have cheated when he admitted to it?


TheTeaRex15

Clickbait/ not trying to spoil is my guess


galvinizingthunder

Could have titled it Dream's Minecraft Speed Run


nicocal04

I hadn't read this before, agree 100%. And I regret my comment on this thread, it's very similar to yours.


Iryasori

I would say it’s to avoid any backlash from his fans/stans. It can be a bit…much


ExtraordinaryCows

Y'know, I grew up in what many would call the "golden age" of Minecraft. People like captainsparkles, antvenom, skydoesminecraft, etc. all had huge channels and large followings. The fans got weird sometimes. Even then, they were *nothing* compared to how bad a lot of Minecraft YouTuber stans are nowadays. Not just Dream, pretty much all the Minecraft YouTubers that have blown up in the last 3 or 4 years. And I just don't get it. Its not how bad individual fans are, that's always been an issue. Every popular person in the history of society have had some wackjob fans. Its just how *many* there are with this particular subsect, and it's fucking creepy, epecially on Twitter. Even though I know a lot of these people have gotten rich off the back of it, I still almost feel bad. Its gotta be such a shitty feeling knowing that such a large group of people are doing scumbag shit like sending death threats "in your name". And due to the nature of these people, you're stuck. Say nothing and you get called out for ignoring the issue. Call out those weirdos, and you're inadvertently encouraging it because "ohmygosh my favorite streamer might talk about me if I send death threats to people". Edit: the fact that I just made what's basically a "back in my day" about captainsparkles makes me simultaneously feel about 14 and 47


sebastienflyte

I think the extreme love these MCYT stans have for the content creators is because of Twitch, which has always had a problem with fans forming parasocial relationships with the streamers. I think content creators kinda encourage this relationship too because it makes them money. You can kinda see this happening with Dream when he kinda encourages his fans to make RPF about his and his friend(s).


Iryasori

Yea, I remember that time. Crazy to think it was about a decade ago. You’re right, though. I don’t remember there being masses of fans who were super toxic like the Dream fans. Sure there might’ve been a few, but I don’t think it’s easily comparable to today. I was around 14-15 years old, so easily impressionable and looking for a place to fit in, and even looking back on it, there really wasn’t that much going on in the fanbases. I think it has to do with social media making it easier to “connect” with content creators and vice versa these days. It wasn’t as commonplace to use as it is now.


whereyatrulyare

I would've considered the peak Yogscast era the "golden age" of Minecraft. It's weird to see people getting nostalgic over skydoesminecraft, I remember his fans being pretty obnoxious back in the day, admittedly in a more harmless manner than you might fan from Dream stans and whatnot.


ExtraordinaryCows

I'd consider them all the same era. I chose the examples I did purely because they tended to have the more "rabid" fanbases, so it didn't look like I was trying to be disingenuous. Trust me, I loved shadow of israphel


whereyatrulyare

Ah, that's completely fair. My apologies. I was more thinking about my own experiences, if that makes sense.


JBSquared

Most Skydoesminecraft fans were like, 10-15 back then and are like, 18-23 now. Since you were more into the Yogscast I'm assuming you were in your teens-20s back then.


whereyatrulyare

Early teens, I wanna say. I know my younger sis was into DanTDM and StampyLongLegs (I *think* that's their names)


_retropunk

I was the stampy and dantdm era! i'm pretty sure you could make some kind of generation chart based on what minecraft youtubers you watched.


Im_your_life

This unfortunately make sense


Nathan1506

He admitted to "accidentally leaving the mod on" Which is of course bullshit, but if we give him the benefit of the doubt then its an accident, not cheating. So I guess since we can't prove he did it on purpose, he "might" have been cheating.


LuriemIronim

Probably because he’s claiming it was accidental, so it’s questionable on whether or not that counts as cheating.


Lowkey57

I move for a ruling of "so full of shit his eyes are brown".


Im_your_life

So it's not cheating if it wasn't on purpose? Would it make the run legitimate?


comradequicken

Yeah and I'm sure David Ortiz will get to the bottom of why he tested positive for steroids any day now...


sohyesgf

Because, whilst I belive that he did cheat, he himself said that it wasn't intentional. Didn't know it would cause such a stir lol.


Im_your_life

It's Dream. I was wondering if someone would come and say that he didn't do anything wrong. Personally, I don't think it matters if he did it on purpose or if it was a mistake, it is cheating, specially considering his reaction to it.


terlin

IIRC way back near the beginning the staff actually offered him an out by mentioning he may have left a mod on by accident. At that time, he could have just taken the out and said it was possible and for the sake of the community he would take the L. Drama over.


I_Am_Dwight_Snoot

>Because, whilst I belive that he did cheat, he himself said that it wasn't intentional. I believe both of these BUT I believe he intentionally lied afterwards. There is no way that a *career minecraft speedrunner* could think those drop rates looked right.


GalaxyAwesome

The speedrunner Smallant tested a mod that gave him drop rates similar to Dream’s cheated runs and he was able to get a 13 minute run in only a few hours of attempts. It’s crazy how much of an advantage the RNG can give.


lifelongfreshman

My first and only real exposure to this bit of drama was when Matt Parker created a [pretty good video](https://youtu.be/8Ko3TdPy0TU) on how the math just doesn't work out, which I am sharing mostly as a shameless way to introduce him to more people, since I love the guy and think he deserves more support.


StereoTypo

I bought his book, the man is very entertaining.


Twad

Which one?


Feathercrown

Not the commenter but I have "Things to Make and Do in the Fourth Dimension" by him. Don't know if he has more books or not.


Twad

There's one about mistakes in maths, can't remember the name. I have one real and the other on my Kindle.


WouterBJK

It's called Humble Pi, great book


kkeut

>Matt Parker crazy that the South Park guys mated and had a kid (apparently)


ChuckCarmichael

Matt Parker and Trey Stone.


littlehawk93

If more people talked about math the way Matt Parker did, we wouldn't have as much of this widespread hatred of the subject


nicocal04

"Might've" yeah, sure. He might not have come clean all the way. But he admitted to cheating, at least on accident. There's no "might", he did cheat.


Reditobandito

Yeah it only took him months to fess up. OP is fronting false neutrality


SimonBNT

Besides the Matt Parker video in the other comments, one of the most well known people from the speedrunning community, Karl Jobst, made a really nice video about this, explaining things from the speedrunning point of view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8TlTaTHgzo


erinthecute

Yeah the Jobst and Matt Parker videos were the nail in the coffin for public opinion. Two respected experts laying out clear and damning analyses swayed a lot of people who found the whole thing difficult to follow.


luchajefe

With Dream coming back out with more denials, Jobst is working on an even more definitive takedown with everything that's happened since the last video.


ze_shotstopper

Those two videos are excellent to understanding what happened


kkeut

that Karl Jobst is a good guy and a real good representative of tje speedrunning community


HalfBloodHalfBat

Speaking of Karl Jobst, isn’t he making another video with dream following a 10 hours interview? Since the whole intentionally cheating thing wasn’t really resolved, as Dream claims he didn’t realize the altered rates were on, I think the next video touches on that. But who knows, I tuned out of this drama awhile ago.


Garfleld

I’m only familiar with Dream because of his fans harassing people on Twitter and was certainly not expecting to read about a speed run cheating scandal. Wild stuff. Thanks for posting


thepineapplemen

I’m just stunned that the speed running site would write up a paper and do all this complicated statistical analysis. Wow, I underestimated how serious that community must be


enderverse87

Speedrunners are already inherently obsessed with Math. It's not much of a stretch for it to extend to stuff like that.


[deleted]

[Watch for rolling rocks in 0.5 A presses](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpk2tdsPh0A)


ChuckCarmichael

That video is so fascinating. I don't care at all about speedruns, and the concept of trying to beat a game with as few button presses as possible just sounds silly, but I still watched the entire video back when it was first posted on reddit.


BlueMonday1984

P A R A L L E L U N I V E R S E S


Regalingual

If you have some time, [hbomberguy](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I5auJOBC828) has a video that goes into just how surprisingly academically rigorous the speed running community really is. Which then led directly to him streaming a 100% run of Donkey Kong 64 over a few days, in the name of raising funding for a trans-supportive UK charity after it’s governmental funding was briefly put into jeopardy due to brigading from some anti-trans asshats.


rnykal

actually a 101% run lol


drunkbeforecoup

Which also gave us DK saying trans rights because of course in the fucking 90s your composer also voices the main character. Also grant is making the music for that new Mario rabbids game, which is pretty hype.


StormStrikePhoenix

> Which also gave us DK saying trans rights because of course in the fucking 90s your composer also voices the main character. What hasn't DK said at this point? Seriously, there has been so much done with DK Rap sentence mixing.


destinybladez

Speedrunners are just built different. Some of the tactics for Castlevania 1 speedruns are frame perfect There was a speedrun tactic for some other game which involved putting toothpaste on the disc.


_retropunk

wasn't there a guy who has an unreplicable speedrun in some mario game because a neutrino or cosmic ray hit his console and caused a binary number to change state?


PegasusAssistant

It feels like modifying the physical media would disqualify a run?


Bossmonkey

They were replicating some guys old nasty horrible condition disk if memory serves. He was able to do something thought impossible and they were working through the variables.


SnowingSilently

Do you mean SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom? This is the video explaining how the strategy came about: https://youtu.be/THtbjPQFVZI.


oneonetwooneonetwo

Yeah, he was cleaning it with his tongue for some reason but it had real world performance impacts


Bossmonkey

Yeah I couldn't remember exactly what he was doing, that or rubbing it on his forehead or something.


Bossmonkey

Wasn't there one where they put the console on a hotplate because the rng system broke when the system was beginning to overheat?


ChaosEsper

There's a bit of context missing about that. My understanding is that prior to Dream, there was some drama about a different run being taken down without clear and convincing evidence. So when it came time to pull Dream's run from the boards the mod team, who wanted to avoid accusations of negligence and were aware of how large Dream's following was, decided to draft a very thorough explanation to show they did their due diligence.


Moopityjulumper

It’s incredible that they do so honestly. They’re elevating not only the games by introducing new reasons to play but also making math more accessible. I bet there are some people out there who became better at math trying to understand the basis speed running. It’s so cool how rigorous and passionate they are


deains

You should see the kinda stuff Pokémon speedrunners come up with. There's so much maths in those games, so many different choices to make, and so much randomness (which has a *ton* of manipulation to force certain outcomes). The process of coming up with a speedrun route for a Pokémon game is an art unto itself.


Aceknow

Can't believe this shit has been ongoing for over 6 months at this point... isolation has killed the concept of time


CueDramaticMusic

I’m just glad this is over and that I don’t have to hear anything more about Dream besides his bad music video.


Kuroiikawa

Tbf, that bad music video and the internet's response to it is fucking hilarious. I will never get over the concept of "normal pills".


CueDramaticMusic

I will die on the hill that it’s a lost episode of Fanboy and Chum Chum.


aisbwowbsiwj

I think a lot of people have been scarily critical of Dream, i've even seen some people say that youtubers that career goes up in the same pattern as him often turn out to have relations with under age fans and I think its kinda goddamn warped to just assume someones a pedophile because you dont like him. But getting that out the way, the whole music video is goddamn hillarious. Opening a doctors note that says "you are NOT normal" is so fucking funny, and everything after is great to. I don't have screen shots of this conversation so if anyone can link them it would be greatly appreciated. But Dream responded to someone on twitter because a lot of people have been rightfully criticizing the music video for showing Dream throwing his prescribed medication away to his underage fans. And dream responds by saying its ACTUALLY about his experience with ADHD pills and then fucking saying something a lot the lines of "my music video bad, "DRUGS DRUGS DRUGS", good". I can't believe this dude is 21, all the immature responses about the speed running controversy and now pulling a "rap, more like crap" response because people dont like you're dumb music video is so funny, I can't wait to see how things escalate.


thisisnthelping

> i've even seen some people say that youtubers that career goes up in the same pattern as him often turn out to have relations with under age fans and I think its kinda goddamn warped to just assume someones a pedophile because you dont like him. I genuinely agree that just throwing out pedo accusations with absolutely no basis other than "he seems like the type". That being said though... He is a massive cunt who has literally willingly, knowingly, and happily enabled parasocial relationships with an audience that is largely children. He deserves all the hate he has coming to him and I have zero fucking sympathy for that piece of shit at this point.


error521

>I think a lot of people have been scarily critical of Dream, i've even seen some people say that youtubers that career goes up in the same pattern as him often turn out to have relations with under age fans and I think its kinda goddamn warped to just assume someones a pedophile because you dont like him. I agree that making an accusation like that is pretty fucked, but I will say that if Dream offered me Kool-Aid I would definitely not drink it.


CueDramaticMusic

~~As funny as it is, the development of Totally Not Fanboy and Chum Chum is pretty fucked. Dream gave the fledgeling animation studio involved (Phyre somethingorother) 250 bucks up-front to crank it out in a month, in between other projects, despite being directly told that doing it well would take 4 months of dedicated man hours. They got paid afterwards, but that’s still not ok.~~ ~~The worst part is that the owner of said studio who signed off on was not just only 16 years old, but also a huge fan of Dream, so he really is out there manipulating minors into giving him what he wants because he’s famous.~~ So, uh, [it never happened oops](https://antariies.tumblr.com/post/653696627048054784/did-dream-underpay-and-rush-the-animators-of-his)


serillymc

this isnt true, theres a lot more to it that isnt being spread. the video had been in the works since at least march and the lead animator said he didnt rush them at all, and dream posted screenshots of their conversations to back this up (not mad i just rly dont like seeing these things spread when theres more to it)


CueDramaticMusic

I would like to trust Dream on this, but in light of what he’s done, I’d love to see some sources on that one.


serillymc

[this post](https://antariies.tumblr.com/post/653696627048054784/did-dream-underpay-and-rush-the-animators-of-his) gathers a lot of the information in one place!


CueDramaticMusic

Weird, I swear you had a different profile pic when I clicked on the breakdown of what happened. Anyway, thanks!


serillymc

i just changed it, haha. no problem!


GoodPickles123

Ayo turn that shit up Charles


talkingwires

> And dream responds by saying its ACTUALLY about his experience with ADHD pills and then fucking saying something a lot the lines of "my music video bad, "DRUGS DRUGS DRUGS", good". In an interview, Dream states that he threw away medication prescribed for ADHD because he felt it was hampering his creativity. “I don't know enough about them to comment on whether that was smart enough of me to do. I don't want to encourage anyone to do that.” The message in music video is naive at best, actively harmful at worst. He seems to be walking it back, but that he created video for a young audience about an important topic, but presented it in such a simplistic fashion shows very poor judgment. Speaking of which... > I can't believe this dude is 21... Twenty-one years of age is considered being a “young adult,” a generous way of saying “kid.” One's brain is still developing at that age, and most simply haven't accumulated enough life experience to make the most wise decisions. There's a reason car rental agencies either won't rent to people under 25 or charge them an extra fee, why most states require one to be 30+ years to run for governor, or the Constitution requires one to be 35 to run for President. Don't believe me? Just wait another decade, I guarantee you'll look back at things you did at 21 and cringe. Dream's a kid creating content for even younger kids. Trying to present himself as some sort of role model or teacher or I-don't-even-know-what with this video is extremely misguided. Leave the medical advice to those in the medical profession. > you're dumb music video Oh, the hubris!


viafiasco

I thought this had started last year. What is time even at this point.


DragonflyGrrl

It did. The speed run was posted on the ranking website in October and taken down in November.


aspenuwu

wait it's been 6 months??


Aceknow

Yes, it's somehow been that long, my gooooood


ChuckCarmichael

That Matt Parker video people are posting where he goes through the arguments of the initial claim and Dream's rebuttal is from early February. That's already 4 months old.


Snowy_Skyy

"might" everybody knew he cheated, and then he admitted to it himself as well


Ekanselttar

Just to be clear, the raw odds of Dream's luck (or better) occurring in the sample given is approximately one in ten sextillion, aka one in ten thousand billion trillion, aka 1/10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. The math used to cut those odds down to even one in 7.5 trillion (1/7,500,000,000,000) is... charitable, to say the least. To put that into perspective, if you streamed Minecraft every single day for long enough to conduct 262 barters and kill 305 blazes, the time you could expect to take to get 42 or more ender pearls and 211 or more blaze rods in one session is roughly 320 trillion years, which is something on the order of 20,000 times the age of the Universe. The odds of even having the capability to cherry-pick events remotely close to what was observed are beyond vanishingly small.


Telemetrics277

You’re probably more likely to win the lottery, get struck by lightning, be bit by a great white shark, get struck by lighting *again*, and then win *two more* lotteries in the same afternoon. Just envision a guy standing there with a big grin, wads of cash in his hands, a tourniquet on one missing leg, and Litchenberg figures burned into his skin…


zykezero

it's not 1 in 7.5 trillion that he might have cheated. It's 1 in 7.5 trillion chance that what occurred might have been real.


outclimbing

1 in 7.5 trillion chance he didn’t cheat


GoneRampant1

The weird thing is that right after that post, Dream took down the post and seems to be trying to walk back the cheating admission. What a crapsack.


ridgegirl29

Dream recently is coming under fire for hiring a bunch of Minecraft animators to make his music video and rushing them in under a month Most of the people who worked on those videos are, in fact, under the age of 18


sablie

They were also WILDLY underpaid.


ZemlyaSannikova

It’s also a video that encourages stopping psychiatric medication cold turkey a la “the drugs are the REAL disorder, man!”, which is just asking to send thousands of his impressionable teenage fans to the hospital with discontinuation syndrome. The dude’s kinda an idiot to a dangerous degree, and he’ll sit back and watch his fans trend insensitive hashtags (“SHOOTERS4DREAM”…in the wake of a mass shooting???) and try to cause genuine harm (just last week he got in a Twitter argument with another user, who is black, and his fans responded by doxxing and sending the cops to their house. Knowing full well why that’s dangerous. He’s said nothing about this.) and still acts like they’re all a big happy family. It’s disturbing.


ridgegirl29

As someone who grew up in the 2013-2015 anti recovery era of Tumblr, it feels like a strange repeat. I run a semi popular niche account on Instagram and a lot of people i talk to are young dream fans and...it scares me. I'm glad more people seem to be critical about it but I worry for the uncritical onez


ZemlyaSannikova

It’s horrifying the absolute death grip he has on these kids. It’s gotten to a point where a lot of them consider “tagging cc/dream negativity” on tweets as important as tagging triggering content like slurs and transphobia because the thought of someone calling out the near-30 year old youtube man who TOTALLY cares about them specifically as a person and not just as a source of revenue puts them in a state of extreme distress. God forbid you say “it’s fucked up that he used the r-slur and promotes anti-recovery”, that’s just asking to have hordes of them calling you ableist (nevermind your own disabilities or disorders) for expecting a grown adult with adhd to know how to fucking behave himself when he’s been made a role model.


ridgegirl29

Minor correction: dream is 1 year older than me (almost to the day, actually) cuz he was born in 1999. He's gonna be 22, I'll be 21, both in August. Kinda weird to think about tbh EVEN SO literally the amount of teenagers who follow him like a cult is disturbing. Parasocial relationships to this degree are seriously harmful and this pandemic where kids are just trapped inside the house online isn't doing anyone any favors. Not to mention selling overpriced pride merch and pocketing 90% of the profits, which is even worse when most of his fanbase is lgbt somehow.


Asymptote_X

"Might've" lmfao, anyone with an elementary understanding of statistics knows he's full of shit. I have no stake in this drama, I just can't believe people don't know how to use basic logic to figure out the truth. Who is unironically defending dream besides little kids?


zykezero

nah nah, knowing 'just enough statistics' is worse than knowing none. Because they apply rudimentary stats and don't understand the complexities that make it actually statistically impossible.


PokestarFan

teens too, basically anyone who hasn't taken high school stats


Lowkey57

I didn't take it, but I'm a gamer. I could definitely look at someone getting a shit ton of rare drops bang bang bang right in a row and call shenannigans, lol.


RotRG

This an interesting topic and an engaging write-up. Thank you for sharing. I’d like to offer some constructive criticism: if I wasn’t very familiar with minecraft mechanics and the Dream controversy, I would have had very little idea of what was going on in this post. Some more detailed explanation might be appreciated!


gliesedragon

. . . Is it mean to wish that this Dream guy would get stuck with dial-up speed internet that cuts out all the time for a few years? Seems like it'd do a lot of good for a lot of people's mental health. It wasn't emphasized that much in the post, but speedrunning communities in general take a really dim view on cheaters: honesty is pretty darn important in the hobby. I don't do more than watching stuff, so I don't really have the full depth of it, though. And, well, I saw a couple of speedrunners of other games respond to his "apology", and apparently Dream watched through and responded to some of those responses on stream, which predictably got a lot of his fanbase downvote-brigading people.


Regalingual

Yeah, there was a whole shitstorm when one of the oldest guard of the speedrunning/high scoring community, Billy Mitchell, got *all* of his records pulled from Twin Galaxies after incontrovertible proof that he was bullshitting on several of his claimed records was presented. By incontrovertible, I mean he had a better time in a racing game than a computer program that was specifically designed to complete it as fast as possible, and claimed a score in another game that was higher than the absolute maximum you could get before it hit a rollover error and crashed.


SpookySnep

Todd Rogers had the impossible times and scores. Billy Mitchell was proven repeatedly to have used an emulator on his Donkey Kong runs, and also celebrated when Apollo Legend committed suicide after Billy's lawsuit put him in dire financial straights on top of failing health.


Telemetrics277

That’s worse than hoping he steps on a Lego! My first modem was 9600 baud for using AOL.


wildflowerden

There's no "might've". He did cheat. He even admitted to it.


Plethora_of_squids

There's two things that are entirely related to the run (and not the subsequent drama) that OP left out which I think are kinda important 1) the run might've ended up placing 5th at the end of timing, but *right up until* the last few minutes of it, it was a solid *first* place run that would've been head and shoulders above everything else on the leaderboard. The only reason why it wasn't, is ironically because of bad RNG (the amount of ender pearls the end portal frame spawns with is random and he got unlucky and it spawned with a below average amount, forcing him to go off and hunt for some more pearls) 2) when compiling the document, one of the things the speedrun mods asked dream for was his Minecraft mods folder from the run, which is a fairly normal and tame request. Now dream made a *massive* fuss about it and said that he "deleted" the folder after the stream/the initial accusation (the story gets a little fuzzy here) for no apparent reason and could not give them the folder. The mods folder is the only place you put your mods if you're modding Minecraft. Keep that in mind when you consider that he then said "oh I guess I did have mods on there's no way I could've known ha ha" And while this is less about the actual run, one of the main reason why people in the speedrun community *really* don't like him after this is because of his reaction - he attacked the mods, calling them clowns and kinda sicced his audience on them. We've had *plenty* of cheaters before, it's their *reaction* to that accusation that people remember them for and like, dream's was possibly one of the worst ones in recent memory that didn't involve suing people. Also in the reaction category, his Pastebin says that he's donating 15000 dollars to the speedrun community which to quite a few people feels like he's trying to pay them off. Kinda feels like this write-up is missing quite a bit of the actual *drama* won't lie. Also like, quite a few of the key details. It's a bit more than just "mods accuse dream of cheating, dream hires 'harvad' guy, everything goes quiet, dream admits to cheating" which is what OP is reducing it down to.


katalinasgayarmy

Whatever else this latest milquetoast youtuber is, he's very good at keeping the limelight on himself and keeping his content getting attention.


GARjuna

Dream is such a baffling figure to me. Before finding out about him if you told me there was an internet celebrity who is/was a trump supporter and also has publicly said they’re ok with rpf of themselves I would have thought you were full of shut


joofish

What’s RPF?


SnowingSilently

Real Person Fiction. Fanfic based off of real people. Super controversial due to possible real world impact on the subjects, writers, and readers. Lots of debate over how well people can separate the line between fiction and reality and what things it encourages and to what extent. Anyways, a fic with him is now the most kudo'd fic on AO3, recently overtaking the previously most popular fic, Yesterday Upon the Stair, a My Hero Academia fic.


ChuckCarmichael

One of my favorite kinds of drama is the one when one of the subjects of that real person fiction decides to read out said fiction in public, like on a stream, in a youtube video, or even on TV, and the entire fanfic community loses their shit. There was a case a few years ago where Simon of the Yogscast read out a romantic fanfic about him and his friend Lewis on stream, and tumblr went nuts. How dare he read this publically available story out in public?! How dare he make fun of them?! Also the author of that fanfic was apparently underage at the time, so somehow tumblr decided that reading this in public was illegal.


el_d0g

Dream is honestly one of the worst popular creators out there right now. There’s always one, and right now it’s him. His fans are disgusting (I used to like him until everything,, got out of hand. I’m rather into speed running. Thanks Karl jobst) and defend him on everything he does without being the ones able to accept his apologies, which are all half assed anyway. Don’t even get me started on him selling pride merch and donating a whopping 10% of profits to lgbt charities, whilst being straight?? Idk man he gives me really bad vibes. The way he exploited his music video animators too like, it’s a layer cake of red flag behaviour.


StormStrikePhoenix

> Don’t even get me started on him selling pride merch and donating a whopping 10% of profits to lgbt charities, whilst being straight?? So 10% to charity would be a-okay if he, a man who most likely has a net worth in the low millions, wasn't straight?


el_d0g

No, it wouldn’t be ok if he was gay or trans either lmao. It’s just particularly shitty *because* he’s straight. Rainbow capitalism is shitty no matter who practices it.


Snail_Forever

The people who get hung up on this when they want to cancel Dream are just wasting their time. There's plenty of other, much more transggressive shit Dream has done, both in the past and in recent times. Most poingnant things include: * Having a Reddit account that, up until recently, was where he posted pro-Trump nonsense. * Saying certain slurs like "r\*tard" and then getting angry when people complain. * Getting accused of racism and of encouraging racism in his stan fanbase. * Calling his stans "kittens" and telling one of his underage friends "16 is legal in the UK" when said friend admitted to feeling uncomfortable during a stream where there were sexual jokes being made at their expense. * Forcing an animation studio that only made Minecraft animations to completely change their style for a music video he had in mind. Only giving them a very short deadline to completion, and underpaying their work late into development. * Encourages his stans in said music video to ignore doctors and skip medication treatments.


froz3nw4ffl3s

yoo finally my hobby on hobbydrama :)) im rly into minecraft speedrunning/watching speedrunners dream actually at one point accused korbanoes of cheating his 14:56 former wr (which was very lucky but on the order of one in a couple hundreds) and in his second pastebin he apologizes to korbanoes, but misaddresses him as couriway (a different speedrunner who he did not accuse) so .. his claim of caring about the minecraft speedrunning community is a little fishy imo :p


Peaceful_Reveler

Honestly the Dream fandom's reaction to this is a good summation of why it's kind of worrying. Like these people (most of whom are pre-teens) are getting hyperdefensive towards an internet stranger just because he was accused of cheating on a fucking minecraft speedrun. That's messed up, and they really, really need to realise that they don't actually know this guy and he's not their friend at all.


Bobbyjeo2

If you want an example speedrun of how ridiculous that luck is in real time, check out Smallant’s mock speedrun with the same mods, or similar ones. He explains the stupid amount of luck pretty clearly, and touched upon why it’s an issue.


SexWithFischl69

Finally a drama I already knew beforehand. Yeah Dream sucks


El-Diablo-Robotico

If he’s a Trump supporter his time since the last time he was dragged really should be tracked in mooches. If he’s sitting at 36 days that would be 3.6 mooches. His approximate average of 3 days would be 0.3 mooches.


enderverse87

I totally believe that he accidentally left the mod installed, I'm extremely skeptical he didn't realize it within hours and just decided to milk the situation.


tandemtactics

I'm of the same mind. I can totally buy that he accidentally left the wrong mods active given how often he swaps them in and out. I DON'T buy that he failed to realize the problem immediately when called out. He could've totally resolved this by apologizing and accepting the mods' decision. Instead he went scorched-earth and just stirred up more unnecessary drama and discord, as is his M.O. with most things.


BloodprinceOZ

to further clarify, regarding dream's now admittance about the cheating, when the first accusations came around form the mod team, they asked him to comply with their investigation and hand over his mod folder, however Dream said he'd deleted it (because he switches out mods frequently for his videos), and that he only know truely thought hard about whether he actually did have mods at 4am in the bathtub, because he's "sowwy" also regarding dream being a trump supporter, its definetly not a "maybe" the reddit account which was speculated to be his has actually been found to be his because it directly promoted some of his first major vids for his channel basically right after they were posted. also as an added piece of potential drama, dream's apparently been doxxed, and his real face has been exposed, althought its not entirely confirmed, but apparently he's been catfishing people and the person posing for his merch photos is actually his brother and not him himself


erinthecute

Damn, the real hobbydrama is always in the comments. I never heard about that last part. That is really spicy.


alltakesmatter

>to people drawing torture porn of him and his friends Yo, I'm sorry. What the FUCK?


himit

>You might stop here and say - hold on! If I was accused of cheating, and I knew I wasn’t, wouldn’t I just look in my mod-log (a list that shows what/if you have any mods on) of that game and confirm or deny. Maybe publicly tweet - “Hey! I had a mod on, I forgot about. Delete my run, of course!”. Man, I often want to embrace the more creative side of myself and do more music stuff and maybe even youtube, and then I remember that a huge chunk of the creative community is composed of people for whom the immediate reaction is always 'get hurt and lash out' and I realise I have better things to do with my time.


Darkion_Silver

It's not forgotten yet. After he "admitted", tensions in the community stayed consistently high. Just the other day we had a huge swarm of people who hate Dream, attempting to dox him and being generally quite unpleasant. Many supposed pictures of him were thrown around and insulted to hell and back, though afaik none were of him and it's either trolls or people who are incredibly stupid. I fear this won't be ending for some time...


throwaway_thyroid

Is that what happened? I'm an "old" who knows little of Minecraft except that it's virtual Legos, and even I saw people on my timeline talking about the doxxing. I looked into it and mostly saw people making fun of a chubby kid. Awful for that random kid.


donttrademe

I get doxing is for scum, but what's the "admitted"? He said he did it and actively hid it, what else is there?


losingedge

To all people who are only commenting "What's with the title? He DID cheat" you answered your own question. Obviously he cheated. The title is clickbait, and it succeeded in getting a ton of of you to comment, gaining traction for the post. Nice job calling out clickbait while also allowing it to succeed.


Leonard_Church814

What a fucking dumb controversy.


SerpentsEmbrace

Every single thing I learn about Dream is dumber than the last


Leonard_Church814

Agreed.


Telemetrics277

Dumb, yes. Informative and entertaining? Yes.


SomeKindaSpy

lol no he absolutely cheated


SailboatoMD

I heard that the timing on which he released the infamous bathtub 'apology' came shortly after his speed run attempts for Minecraft 1.15 were removed. So it might have been a distraction tactic to get people talking about the old drama rather than the new one. Don't like the guy based on his track record. First he had PewDiePie's seed cracked without consent, then he took the credit without acknowledging the seed cracking team. And it seems he's always getting embroiled in drama and coming up with justifications for his actions. Even this 'apology' is half-hearted and focuses on his own emotions instead of maybe the moderators he slandered.


DreadAngel1711

"might've" You say that like the fact he cheated is subjective