T O P
frostyoranges32

Thanks for reading, let me know if you wanna see QB tiers next


DirtRoadMammal17

I’ll take QB, WR, and TE, please


frostyoranges32

I've already posted my WR rankings, you can look at my profile or the links at the top of the post to check them out. Thanks for reading


Ko0pa_Tro0pa

Sorry to be slightly off-topic, but what did you dislike so much about Josh Jacobs as a prospect? I mean, I was a fellow skeptic for a few reasons, but you REALLY didn't like him.


frostyoranges32

My model incorporates both film and analytics, and while I liked Jacobs film a decent bit, he was a very poor prospect analytically and production wise, thus the very low grade.


Cotsy8

I did have a question about the WR rankings in the last post. Been watching London & Bell tape predominantly because that's who is going to be available to me this season. I've noticed on tape that Bell rarely works back to the back, often letting the ball come to him. This isn't to say he doesn't attack the ball in the air, but rather the crossing routes (which he often ran) he never goes back towards the ball and even has a tendency to fade away. Did you notice this at all?


frostyoranges32

I did notice that a bit, but I don’t think it’s a function of bells skill more of habit/tendency that’ll hopefully be coached out of him, because when you watch him high point or track the ball or catch with contact bearing down (Notre Dame game is good example, and there’s a couple good play he made against Hamilton) he’s got really good ball skills.


surfingwithgators

Not really concerned about Hall's speed. He broke off more long runs than I ever saw out of Najee or Javonte last year.


TornadoApe

I went and creeped your rankings for 2019-2021 and there are some good hits in there. Will definitely be following your updates.


bronton21

Nice work on this man and thanks for sharing. Spiller seems to be a polarizing prospect. Some like him, others have him 3rd of the 3. I think i have seem some concerned with hi yards over expected being negative? Looked back at your past rankings as well. Appreciate the transparency and youre doing pretty well w these


[deleted]

Yards over expected wasnt just negative, it was borderline awful. Spiller was outplayed by Achane the past 2 years sadly. He’s got all the tools absolutely, just hasn’t been able to produce enough where I’d feel confident putting him as the RB1.


bronton21

Yeah im pretty worried about it to be honest...to invest in him as a top 4 pick seems risky. Do you like either of the other 2, or is this RB class just really weak? I thought Hall looked pretty good to me. Walker looked like the best most explosive pure runner from what I've watched, but some of the devy guys are low on Walker as well.


[deleted]

Hall is my 1.01 right now and it’s not very close. Walker is a good prospect he’s just awful in the backfield which really limits his upside, although it seems the NFL is higher on him than Hall. If you need a RB I’d probably just trade for 2023 picks, 2023 RB class is about as good as it comes.


bronton21

Thanks man. I have the 1.02 and the 1.06 in this draft. I like Hall and Burks and am gonna grab one of them at 2, but I think I might sell that pick 6 for David Montgomery or a 23 1st (i have 3 right now...love those '23 RBs). What do you think? I feel like after the top 5, this class gets a little dicey


[deleted]

Yea I’m not a huge fan of the 2022 class. I think the 1.01 and 1.09 in SF are pretty similar in value which could be argued as a good thing I guess. The RB/TE/QBs are all pretty deep but just no one I’m wanting to really buy. Wont be surprised if we see a good amount of guys turnout, just going to be really hard to predict which I’m not a huge fan of.


el_osomalo

I really like what I've seen on tape for Sincere McCormick. What are your thoughts on him?


frostyoranges32

To be perfectly honest, I haven't caught much of him. He's someone I'll need to take a look into before I post my final rankings.


BroccoliOverLettuce

Everyone has hits and misses but looking back at your previous rankings you've been pretty solid. Comparing your ratings this year with previous years was interesting. What type of NFL draft capital do you think the tier 1 guys get?


frostyoranges32

Thanks! I think Spiller, Hall, and Walker all get round 1-2 draft capital. Kyren Williams will probably get round 3


[deleted]

I’m not a big spiller fan. His pass catching ability is solid, and he’s pretty elusive for his size. But, his vision seems questionable, he’s inconsistent at pass pro, he doesn’t have breakaway speed, and I feel like he plays smaller than his size power wise


Think-Asparagus-2231

This is a great read. My evaluation is very simple and far from any real depth to my studies into their tape. I love the breakdown you offer. I'm interested to see where you rank Sincere McCormick? I guess my far too early tiers are as below Tier 1 Hall, Walker, Spiller Tier 2 Allgeier, Williams Tier 3 McCormick, Cook/White, Badie & Abram Smith Only half way through the tape on most of these though


frostyoranges32

I haven't caught much McCormick to really have an opinion on him sorry, but I will take a look into him for my final rankings.


Killtec7

Comparing Breece to Le'Veon and Isaiah to Joe Mixon, is essentially saying Breece = Isaiah; because..Mixon was Le'Veon incarnate coming out, more athletic and just as sticky hands. There's a reason why Lev was calling him out for mimicking him his rookie season.


Renegade31

This is well written, nice job. One formatting tip, it might be worth highlighting the specific attributes in the strengths/weaknesses portions somehow (bold or italics) before diving into each one, just would make it easier to follow on mobile. I’d love to see your analysis on the QB and WR groups as well, thanks for the work you’ve done!


frostyoranges32

Thanks for the feedback - I’ll apply that for my QB tiers coming in a couple of days. I’ve already done two posts on my WR tiers; they’re linked on the post or you can check them out on my profile


Renegade31

Awesome, thanks!


SpecialMundane8794

Thanks for all of these. I’ve been closely following your write-ups.


[deleted]

[удалено]


el_osomalo

He announced that he's returning to UCLA. [https://twitter.com/zachcharbon/status/1482126017443467264?s=20](https://twitter.com/zachcharbon/status/1482126017443467264?s=20)


SHlME

I missed that, thanks!


theunbearableone

Because he’s not declaring


rwarner13

Verdell returned btw


frostyoranges32

Thanks, I must've missed that


Mazzie1090

Man I feel like I’m locked in with Hall having the 1.01, but I’m so torn. If Spiller goes to AZ it’s almost that alone would sway me to go him instead. But I just always had Hall as the 1.01


frostyoranges32

I think given the lack of a premier RB separating themselves from the pack draft capital and situation will dictate draft order more than usual for the RBs


Thegofurr

Or Burkes!


Jameramz

I'm rooting for Allgier. He's a converted linebacker and when you watch him play you'd never be able to tell. He has good vision and instincts. I believe those are two of the most important traits for a later round rb to have. If he goes day 2/early day 3 he could be really interesting.


alcaveens

Great content man. Have you had a chance to look at Dameon Pierce? And if so, any thoughts?


frostyoranges32

I haven't had a chance to have a deep look into him but I think he'll be a decent between the tackles runner. He'll feature in my final rankings though where I'll cover more prospects.


alcaveens

Thanks for the reply, dude! Very much looking forward to it!


JulioForte

What are your thoughts on Dameon Pierce out of Florida?


frostyoranges32

I haven't had a chance to have a deep look into him but I think he'll be a decent between the tackles runner. He'll feature in my final rankings though where I'll cover more prospects.


mogrimwarlock

Good stuff sir, enjoyed it very much!


bennyautomatic

Have you looked at Dameon Pierce for Florida at all? I normally see him in the top 10 RBs of this class


RyanABS

!remindme 5 months


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WSB-YOUNGBOY

I’ve been looking everywhere and didn’t find it. But what are your thoughts on Damien Pierce? Not in tier 3/4? What tier would you put him in?


frostyoranges32

I’ll include Pierce in my draft guide, he was completely under my radar when I wrote this up!! I’ve watched his film ect, and pending draft capital and landing spot he’ll likely be tier 2


EfficiencyCharming56

any way you do an updated post-combine article?! or maybe after the draft itself. love the content keep up the good work!


Hammerdingaling

These all seem like good reads! Do you have a breakdown on your 2019-2021 on how you scored them? I was finding your ranking of N’Kheal as a perennial WR2 to be much more realistic than how the majority of experts had him as a mid WR1


frostyoranges32

Sorry - I didn't do write ups like this back then. If you want to look at my evaluation process [this comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/s7ycjf/way_too_early_2022_rb_rankings_tiers_1_2_3_4/htdsmv8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) gives a good over view. As for the film on Harry, I am always wary of guys who fail to get separation at the college level. Obviously, harry was very good at this in college, thus why I had him as my WR2 and 1.02. But I had concerns with his separation ability, lack of red zone effectiveness in college, and his speed. I also mainly take talent instead of situation (I faded guys like CEH and Sermon, who got really propped up by situation despite having mediocre prospect profiles and film).


Hammerdingaling

No worries! That makes sense if it wasn’t a big deal in the past. I think N’Kheal was my #1 in the class but I didn’t have the chance or care to trade up and get him so I pushed forward. Sometimes it helps to not want to break the bank on prospects. This is a pretty helpful layout. What’s funny is I wasn’t high on Jacobs either but overall he’s played much better than expected.


drygulchslim

Great write up and pretty impressed with the accuracy of your model. As I run out of dynasty related things to do in the off-season I was thinking of trying to assemble my own model to evaluate prospects. Can you give a high level overview of how your model works, key metrics you use, etc?


frostyoranges32

Definitely. 1. Is started off by inputting data from a variety of metrics for each position. This was from fantasypros dynasty rankings a couple of years. (About 100 prospects for RB/WR, and 50 prospects for QB/TE). This way I could see the correlation between certain college metrics and NFL success. 2. After identifying the correlation, each metric is weighted according to how strongly it correlates, if at all (for example hand size has little correlation to NFL success, thus is lowly weighted, but something like college QBR is weighted higher since it has a higher correlation to NFL success.) The lowest possible weighting is 1 while the highest possible is 5. 3. For each metric, there are thresholds set. Typically a minimum threshold which is usually around being the top 50% percentile for an athletic measurable/analytical metric (like Dominator), which would grant half the available 'points', and then higher tier thresholds. For example for college RB YPC, a metric weighted at 5, the minimum threshold is top 50% percentile, granting 3 'points', and then achieving the top 65% percentile (RB2 threshold) grants 4 points, and then achieving top 75% (RB1 threshold) grants 5 points. Not all my metrics have thresholds though, some if you just meet the minimum you get all the available points for the metric 4. Then I weigh in my film grades. Typically this has around a 25-30% weighting of the total available points, depending on position (for example QB the film grade is more important than RB). I use the NFL 8 point grade scale to evaluate, with each different tier on that grade scale granting points. 5. At the end once I've done the film review, each prospect has gained a certain amount of points. For example, Kyle Pitts had 80/82 available points for TE, 98% of the available points, so he gets a grade of 98. Not the most scientific process, but it works. 6. Some of the metrics I use for RB evaluation are Weight, BMI, HS rating, Draft Capital, Early Declare, 40 time, speed score, ect, as well was production and analytical metrics like dominator rating, 1,000 yard seasons, college target share, broken tackle %, ect 7. Hopefully this is a decent enough explanation


drygulchslim

That’s a great breakdown, thanks! Sounds like you’ve put a lot of work into fine tuning it and it seems to be paying off.


TheClownDances

This is one of the worst RB classes I can remember. I don't think Breece Hall is better than David Montgomery, fwiw.


Yostb

Do you think he's close? If so, factoring in that he's 4 years younger breece has to be worth more. What do you think Monty's worth in terms of draft pick? Early/mid 1ish? Imo he's not a can't miss like zeke, but he's worth just about what you'd expect out of the pick on average.