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[DiLalla] The Giants and Jags “went to extreme measures” to stop the Broncos’ running game, as HC Vic Fangio put it today, but Denver has still been among the more successful teams on the ground. The Broncos rank fifth in rushing yards per game and 12th in rushing yards per play.

[DiLalla] The Giants and Jags “went to extreme measures” to stop the Broncos’ running game, as HC Vic Fangio put it today, but Denver has still been among the more successful teams on the ground. The Broncos rank fifth in rushing yards per game and 12th in rushing yards per play.

sleeplessaddict

Our running game is just gonna get better throughout the year too if we keep playing like we have been. I think teams were focused on the run and daring Teddy to throw, but so far (I know it's only two games, but still) Teddy has been one of the best passers in the league. Once defenses start respecting him, it'll open up a lot more opportunities for the ground game


_Caed_

that’s what it seems like to me. teams are focusing on the run because they’re daring teddy to throw but suddenly he *is* if he keeps it up the run will open


smertai

I was honestly thinking yesterday how it kind of was a good thing Teddy was with Carolina last year. Underperformed so he was a cheap 1yr pick up and so far is proving everyone wrong, even other teams are basing their perception on him from last year apparently. If he keeps performing this way the rest of the season we should be able to sign him to a good,. hopefully not too expensive contract. Let his passing open up the run game until defenses scheme against the run and then if they do that unleash Pookie.


KoreTen

If he continues to ball out like this, he’s not going to be cheap. The market for a top tier QB is at $40 mil. He may not be top tier, but if he plays at this level someone will be willing to pay him $30 mil or more next season.


BubbieMcSnuggles

A good comparison is Tannehill. Pretty universally understood that he is not a “top-tier” QB, but his resurgence in Tennessee and good play earned him $118 million. Teddy (if he keeps playing well) won’t be cheap by any means.


BlindManBaldwin

Those extreme measures? A gun!


lsjunior

I saw a lot of 8 in the box and you saw in second half they went more pass on first down.


TheGreatestPlan

I am...surprised...that 130 rushing yards per game is good for top 5 this year. I am **not** surprised the Ravens are 1st with 220 yards per game.


DLBork

That is largely from Gordon's breakaway run. Our rushing success rate is like 26th in the league It'd be nice to see what defenses have done against Denver to see how true what Vic said is if the NFL would stop being bitches and add all-22 back to gamepass


bbenbbuchanan

Why take away the breakaway run? It was a play that happened, so it should be used in calculating our running game.


DLBork

Because the sample size is tiny and one 70 yard run is going to heavily schew the average when you've played two games? If we can average a 70 yard run every other week, great, but that isn't exactly all that likely. Having a top of the league yards per carry and bottom of the league stuff rate isn't sustainable. Lol since some people seem to have a hard time of comprehending this give me a hour to get home from the gym and I'll show you guys a nice little graph of rush EPA vs success rate if you guys wanna see how finishing in the top of 1 and the bottom of the other isn't very common [Here is Rush EPA vs Rush Success Rate from the years 1999-2021, that I didn't bother formatting.](https://i.imgur.com/vanqQs4.png) This is why we shouldn't expect to be the 8th best team by EPA and the 26th best team by SR % going forward.


SirFireHydrant

It's kinda sad that people seem to have missed your point. If I want to know how well a team is running, I generally exclude the longest run of the game. It does a better job telling you how many yards you can expect the *next* rushing attempt can get you. You can generally expect one big rushing play per game. Olines can be relied on to create a big gap that the RB hits just right at least once. But if it only happens once per game, then it's the fluke rush, whereas if it happens multiple times per game then it's more meaningful. Imagine two teams. One has rushed for 5 ypa, the other 4 ypa. But the first team is down to 3ypa if you exclude their biggest rush, while the other team is only down to 3.8ypa if you exclude their biggest rush. Which team ran better? Or more importantly, which team do you expect to run better on the next play?


DLBork

I really didn't expect I'd have to explain that getting stuffed near the LoS at one of the highest rates in the league isn't a good indicator of success over a larger sample size. Tbh I blame the stupid "if you regress his stats to the average he isn't good" meme from that dumb Patrick Mahomes post a few years back on /r/nfl. Now you can't acknowledge that outliers are a real thing without 5 idiots reposting the dumb meme


SendNudesDude

If you regress his stats, melbon gardin bad


DLBork

lol buddy you're talking to one of the biggest Melvin Gordon stans on this subreddit Do you think having a 70 yard run every other week to keep your YPC and YPG averages up while getting stuffed at a high rate on the rest of the carries is a reasonable expectation? Simple yes or no answer here


pattypaycheck11

I think the people responding to you are high school kids or younger who do not understand statistical outliers or anything about statistical analysis in general. Especially when you’re talking about such a small sample size


stillwaitingatx

Not op, but continuing to run even with 2 or 3 yards a carry does open up to breakouts, especially given the talented runners we have. If you give up on the run game halfway through the game, the entire offense suffers, which I do know that you know


DLBork

The idea that you have to stay committed to the run is an antiquated idea that stuck around for years because it was "conventional wisdom" but it's something you're seeing good NFL offenses move away from more and more. Teams also tend to suffer when they run the ball for 3 yards a carry and insist on sticking with it. Our RBs have attempted 51 carries on the season. Can you give me an example of a team that averaged a 70 yard run every 50 carries over the course of a season?


stillwaitingatx

It doesnt have to be 70 lol, why are you stuck on that specific? A couple 30 yarders can be back breakers as well. Breaking off a big one every few games is not an unreasonable thing to expect if you keep taking shots in the run game.


DLBork

You do understand when we're talking about a sample size of 50 carries there's a huge difference between 30 and 70 right? 261/51 = 5.1 YPC 221/51 = 4.3 YPC We'd also go from 130 rushing yards per game to 110 which is from 5th in the league to 17th lmfao, did you even think about doing the very simple math yourself before posting? You're just making my point for me. Sample size matters


stillwaitingatx

I'm not taking his run away bozo lmao, I'm saying he will have some big chunk runs in the next few weeks also that don't have to be 70, that can also buoy some 2 and 3 yard runs. Stop arguing strawmen, and figure out what you're arguing against before you say irrelevant shit.


aatencio91

It's funny how people are so often ready to take away stats like picks and sacks because of circumstances around them (like garbage time for example) in order to make a player look better, but refuse to do the same to obvious outliers like Gordon's 70 yarder.


Jwoods4117

I never see anyone take away garbage time turnovers when talking about season success. Maybe for one game, but not seasonal, plus they take them away because they happened when the game wasn’t on the line. Gordon’s run happened before garbage time. I feel like that’s apples to oranges, but to each their own.


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Jwoods4117

What the bot below said. Apples to oranges does not mean you can’t compare. It means you should evaluate wether or not you should compare.


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ShareTheHotSauce

I appreciate the effort to defend your position but erasing a 70 yard run from the stat sheet makes zero sense given the small sample size of being two games in the season. That’s the caveat to the others guys initial point it’s only about to be week 3 in the nfl season and we in fact are #5 in rushing. If the offense made a huge run like that against an opposing defense then the offense is performing.


DLBork

Do you think being top in the league in rushing while getting stopped for 1-3 yards on the majority of your carries is a sustainable performance? This is a simple yes or no question that none of you guys can answer because you know how dumb it sounds


ShareTheHotSauce

Of course not but you should revisit this assumption 4 weeks from now after more game stats are provided and their would be more validity to your argument.


pattypaycheck11

He’s not saying Gordon is playing bad!!!! Holy shit you guys are dense


ShareTheHotSauce

No shit dude. You can’t read between the lines. We’ve been talking about the the rushing game in Denver’s offense as a whole and we have two RBs in rotation for carries. I’ll say it again it makes zero sense to erase a 70 yard break away run from the game stats this early in the season. Two games is too small of a sample size for this argument regardless.


DLBork

>I’ll say it again it makes zero sense to erase a 70 yard break away run from the game stats this early in the season. Unless you're trying to predict future production, the entire point of this whole comment chain? I legitimately have zero idea what you think the point being made here is


Hoser117

I was at the stadium for that Giants game and honestly it felt like they had given up. After that failed 4th down the whole stadium was booing. Fans started filing out and there were really loud Broncos chants going. Not too surprising the defenders felt like it was over and we finally pop a big one lol


icedutah

other teams backs have had big runs also...


DLBork

Lmao there are only 10 teams in the league who've had a rush of 30 yards or more


Jwoods4117

Does that not fall under other teams? That’s like 30% if the league no? Skewing 30% of the teams data because you think big runs are outliers is kind of dramatic. I understand why you’d do it, but I think there’s a huge argument as to why you keep those runs in there as well. They happen often enough that it’s not like it’s an accident or anything. It was a good play.


DLBork

There is a gigantic difference between a 30 yard run and a 70 yard run in a 50 carry, two game sample size as I posted [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/DenverBroncos/comments/ps1rh4/dilalla_the_giants_and_jags_went_to_extreme/hdn7is9/). I brought up that number just because it was an easy illustration the majority of the league doesn't have a 70 yard run inflating their numbers. I really didn't think I'd have to explain the concept of outliers and tiny sample sizes to this sub, but here we are. >They happen often enough that it’s not like it’s an accident or anything. Do you expect us to average a 70 yard run every 50 carries? If not, our rushing yards per game and YPC are going to have a pretty noticeable decline.


Ziziblix

I'll just like to say u have done a good job of explaining this. I am dumbfounded as to why your point is constantly missed. I'm also a big melvin gordon fan. The truth is even with some stacked boxes we aren't getting much push up front period. With the exception of the 70yarder these rbs are having to fight hard for every yard they get. I havent paid much attention but last year pulling the guard worked. Not sure if they are doing this year.


qobopod

that's a lot of words to say, "the giants and jags kinda suck."


gnarlnick

Gonna need speed traps my bois Don’t mess w/ MG3 & Pookie


huntobuno

My hot take is Risner should be benched for Muti if his play continues as he has been since the scheme change, he is not one of the best five right now.