T O P

The Crypto Fear and Greed index is now at 12 (extreme fear). It has only dropped to this level five times in the past this cycle. So lets look at those dates, and look at the bitcoin price at that point and see whether each time presented a good buying opportunity.

The Crypto Fear and Greed index is now at 12 (extreme fear). It has only dropped to this level five times in the past this cycle. So lets look at those dates, and look at the bitcoin price at that point and see whether each time presented a good buying opportunity.

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Savvy_One

Really good post, but isn't this way of calculating an index reactive and not predictive? Fear and Greed are going to spike-based upon what already just happened in the market, not what is about to happen.


Cryptodragonnz

Sort of yes. My point is more, if you went back in time onto the days where you saw the reaction / new index. Was that a good time to buy at that point, knowing the index had already fallen to that level?


Savvy_One

Yea it would be very interesting if one could draw a relationship. I do notice that we have two types of recoveries when this index dips into extreme fear - if it doesn't recover in a day, it looks like it should recover within a month and a half.


shugarhillbaby

They say the fear phase is the best point to get in... "Be fearful when others are greedy, greedy when others are fearful." -Steven Buffet Lead pianist, Metallica


leonnova7

Didnt he lose his arm in a helicopter accident?


scoops365

I think it was his left leg. Both feet OK thankfully


Narwahl_Whisperer

Oh, I remember this guy now... he replaced the guy that spontaneously combusted.


shugarhillbaby

No that was Darius Stallone


pacmandaddy

What if BTC were to drop another 50% for example? What comes after extreme fear?


chubbyurma

Intense vomiting


AshKiama

Maybe even some diarrhea


mutalisken

Diarrhea from your mouth, vomit from your anus.


augiem94

That's goddamn terrifying


111ascendedmaster

Zombieland irl


baavramallah

*new strains from India in addition


ArchangelToast

Wait, you guys don't diarrhea from the mouth?


iwishiremember

Like a healthy dose of Ebola.


xxrandom98xx

This is starting to sound like all those prescription drug commercials.


mutalisken

Use Robinhood to trade with crypto! Warning. Side effects can include vomiting, diarrhea, and vomiting from your anus and diarrhea coming out of your mouth.


nerdge

If you have a history of pelvic inflammatory disease, inflammatory bowel disease, hemorrhoids, or anal fissuring, please consult with your physician before starting Robinhood Crypto.


MontefioreCoin

It’s the well established in medical literature BTC-gut axis


Dieklassischekind

Then you need to eat some Greek Yogcoins to improve your gut Bitcobiota


josuhataylor

I laughed way too hard at this but then it quickly turned into one of those laugh-cry transitions 😂😅🥲😥


veryeducatedinvestor

a common occurrence for me in these trying times


terp_studios

May I offer you an egg? 🥚


tvoegeli

A smart man once told me, when people are vomiting, buy like nuts!!


Old-Pool-8887

All i can do is bust my nuts!!!


Comprehensive-Pain-4

Thats when the Suicide post get stickied...


JumboBalls69

Jesus Christ.


MonaLisaOverdrivee

Even he won't save you


Comprehensive-Pain-4

![gif](giphy|ibGFpMv1Uoais)


WhenLifeGiveUOranges

What? That's standard protocol. Right?


wichuks

I sold all my ammo to buy more crypto.


famousdadbod

I sold my kids bike for ammo then sold my kid for crypto... didn’t need him anymore if he didn’t have a bike.


MadxCarnage

it's better to stake kids. think about it with the next one.


ShameDiesel

Yeesh.. god speed brother.


NPC_4842358

Suicide sticky is the time to buy tbh


ambermage

That's when I buy heavily. It's always been my best market indicator.


2020_GR78

For me, an anorexic bank account. As I would be heavily buying btc.


ChiefOfTheWolfpack

Shoveling more of my money up Bitcoin’s shiny metal ass.


wichuks

The Apocalypse


throwaway92715

Intense buying


ArnolduAkbar

I’m not ready for this.


smellylockers07

Nervous poops


JollyGreenLittleGuy

DCA, the answer is always DCA.


exthanemesis

Bull market means I buy. Bear market means I buy cheaper. Ten years from now I'm either still working my job or I'm retiring.


melowiec

Do you buy each month like on a set week or somerhing or just any time you have extra cash? I am thinking of a good strategy to rule out emotions for a long term investment


exthanemesis

Right now it came in kind of a flurry because I was FOMO'ing hard on Cardano and had extra cash. I'm at a comfortable point in my accumulation to where I don't feel this huge urge to get as much as possible as fast as possible. I will probably trim it down to weekly or monthly buys moving forward.


Engineer_Zero

How do you feel about cardano now? I just bought my first coin which was ADA and then the next day everything tanked lol. Part of me is a bit scared off but it also seems to be a good time to buy if you believe in a project?


fatih24499

Just started like you since yesterday. I'm a student (so not that wealthy). I'm seeing crypto as a long term investment because i rationalise that 10 years from now everything will become digital. I just put 10% of my monthly allowance on XRP and next month i will probably buy ADA.


DATY4944

What made you choose ripple? Why do so many new people choose ripple? I still can't figure it out.


anon8496847385

Yes this is correct. I buy regardless, I just happen to buy more in a bear


[deleted]

Yup, this 100%. I got in just before the run in 2017. I watched my investment triple then fall to less than I paid. At no point did I sell. I considered selling half near the top this time but still no retirement so I didn't. Overall though I'm down now because I bought a lot on the way up and never sold.


jhaubrich11

Its okay you will be rich next bull run.


[deleted]

Yup, were just getting into the discount phase of the next one. Buy and hodl.


saicharansigiri

Hold my beer


muricabrb

This is smart money.


Rjones125

When confidence is low, it’s time to buy. It’s a crypto thing.


kytheon

It’s a stock thing too :) and investments. You can even buy houses for cheap during a bubble pop.


evoxyseah

I fear that I don’t have enough fiat to sell. Sigh.


Comprehensive-Pain-4

Mine some more FIAT with the cocaine fix to up the mh/s to 1.69!


famousdadbod

Does anybody know of any good cocaine mines tho?


Kemba4Heisman

Got no fiat left to buy till next month. Sad


Cool-Might7913

Just a heads up to people, please don't base your investment decisions exclusively on one indicator


GoodTimesBradTimes

It's one more than I normally use


The_Chorizo_Bandit

You guys are getting indicators?!


LaGardie

Don't put something you are not willingly to lose. There might not be a selling opportunity for quite some while.


UnreadThisStory

The selling opportunity was a week ago.


TheJoffinator

Yup. Now it’s either sit and hodl or lose a shit ton.


AlreadyLiberated

Thanks for this great post. I’ve been saying it all the way down from $64k to when we hit $30k briefly a few days ago: I think this is a horrible crash in what will be a continuing bull market.


mickeywalls7

I’m leaning that way too. Just curious what made you think that?


AlreadyLiberated

Just studying past bull markets and trying to project forward. I think there’s a lot of great stuff coming soon from Eth and Cardano, plus tons of bullish Bitcoin news, like etfs and big institutions like Goldman and Wells Fargo offering crypto services. Also, long term I think all the doge hype will die down but, as a result, millions of new people will be into crypto. Of course, no one knows for sure and I definitely don’t. But I’m not selling anything.


Loose_with_the_truth

Also that Wyckoff distribution post really convinced me. I've been in bitcoin/crypto for like 8 years now and everything about this dip seemed wrong. Like it really seemed like we should have been in the middle of the bull run, not at the end. Plus, usually when the big crash comes it comes hard and fast. But this was more like a stalling out which eventually went down fast. It does seem like we have more room to grow this cycle and that this crash came from whale manipulation.


redditseariseup

I agree. Every previous top was an exponential rise in price with a peak and rapid decent. Doesn’t make sense to hover in the mid 50s for months only to drop off and go into a bear.


bimib

Or HF who had to show there liquidity in shorted position by new SEC regulation. Because of those regulations they had to pull money from crypto and all this crash started...


SeasonedGuptil

I 100% agree, it doesn’t feel right, it seems off and it just gives me this gut feeling. Idk


paraxysm

I think it was an institutional selloff to raise capital, for events going on in the US stock markets


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sir_gwain

I think that’s true. Cardano and ETH have huge planned updates that in a bull market I could see the price flying up. But if we continue to a bear market, or even what we’ve been in the past few days I don’t see that price going to the moon quite yet. Now once we’re back into a full blown bull market and there’s less fear of a crash. I would expect Cardano and ETH to be top cryptos to watch for new ATHs.


famousdadbod

I Love Cardano and Ethereum more than my own family


crypto_grandma

Cardano and Ethereum *are* your family


bpeci

Our\* Family Comrade


mickeywalls7

What indicators would make you change your mind and think we’ve entered a bear market ?


PhantomFortune

Staying below the 200-day MA. And rejecting it whenever the price tries to get above it. Bull markets exist above it. Bear markets exist below it. And sideways markets chop it up and down. A moving average is an objective way to view a market's trend.


Threshing_Press

Lower lows and lower highs. Breaking down on the weekly and monthly charts. Right now, a weekly close below around $30k might mean a bear market. $25k almost definitely so. My goal is 10% of one Bitcoin, so I try to get 1% at every $5k drop. So $350 worth at $35k, $300 at $30k, etc. But I bought my largest chunk when it was around $25k. If we entered a bear market, I'd probably ratchet it up to 20% of one coin. Also, I'm okay with it going to zero and losing everything. I could buy half a coin, but I do not, cause I ain't okay with losing that much.


MIS-concept

that's wishful thinking


AlreadyLiberated

Another 6-8 weeks of sideways movement trending down and I’ll start to get pretty worried. I don’t think we can count on any clear indicators because every market is different, though the bull/bear cycles are somewhat consistent.


pacasj

With ya there. I think a lot of people are going to make a hell of a lot of money over the next few months.


Jasond777

Just when I said I was done buying the dip for a while you go and post this!


zan_stermecki

I bought the dip but the dip keeps dipping


vkanucyc

in the last bear market in 2018, the lowest low came about 1 year after the then all time high price peak. if that were to follow again, we would have a long way to go before the best buying opportunity. i don't personally see that happening though, i think we go back up from here.


AProfileToMakePost

This sub been saying we are going up from here since 50k.


Tiny_Philosopher_784

Yeah, I see the same. The biggest rushes of inflow were July-August, october, and february. If they were traditional or institutional investors, they'll hold a year. From what I'm seeing, we stepped back to early february, so I'm guessing the risk averse jumped ship only to return in a few days. Wait out this drop, and come back for more since the world is only starting to open up. I'd say money wont go anywhere til fall, when kids go back to school. And possibly hold out until next spring. Then we see a dump, until late summer, and the bear turns out to be a short lived beast. I dont see it lasting 18 months. 4 if it plays out like we can all hope, maybe 10 if it goes to hell in fall.


moonbase9

Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. That is a good rule for investing and really good in such volatile markets such as cryptos.


chubbyurma

Yeet when others yote. Yote when others yeet. \- Warren Buffyeett


UselessScrapu

"Bulls make mulah, Bears make lambos, while Pigs get yeeted." - Urban Investor Dictionary


e1icz

Is that the guy who prefers to get rich slowly?!


chubbyurma

Buffett was pretty aggressive in his younger years. He retired age 26. Since then he's been yeeting when they were yoting.


e1icz

He just keeps indexing. Like Google.


chubbyurma

Literally too rich to do anything exciting anymore. He can't buy growth stocks because even buying the whole company doesn't impact Berkshires value.


Comprehensive-Pain-4

Crypto is my deal - Abraham lincoln


mistybabe32

"Buy the dip" - Your Dad


willmyfordmakeit

*Yoken Yeekett


siberiandivide81

"Get off my lawn" -Warren Buffet


edgellidan

Did that apply to bitconnect lol


Tiny_Philosopher_784

BITCONNECT IN THA HOOOOOUUUUUUUSSSEEEE!


Brokromah

Sure but you're neglecting the part where people are more greedy than they are fearful right now. Pumping doge from .005 to .71 is a pretty strong sign of greed


ikinone

Over simplified advice for sure. Sounds clever, but doesn't give much meaningful guidance.


AnUncreativeName10

This was a top quality post. It's nice to see folks contributing something like this. I honestly wish I had more then 200 to toss in right now. Was able to add onto.my vet with some very miniscule sell/buys but I restated them for now because I'm unsure what's next, don't wanna be caught with my pants down. Thanks for the write up.


therealdriesbuytaert

Wish I had some money to throw in aswell, its all gone when I bought the first "dip"


Loose_with_the_truth

Yeah these posts keep me from panic selling. I've even bought a little more BTC and ETH in the past few days. My habits are slowly changing!


DUXZ

panic selling for what? do you really think in the next five year with all the crazy fucking shit that we forget about within a week and go for the next shiny thing that crypto wont be back at least to the point it was a few weeks ago again?


CampbellKitty

Same.


qvip_flip

Dips from ATH in relation to fear level * February of 2018 - 65% - under the previous ATH * April of 2018 - - 65% - under the previous ATH * November of 2018 - 85% - under the previous ATH * August of 2019 - 50% - under the previous ATH * March 2020 - 75% under the previous ATH ​ And how does it look as of right now? We are just a little over 48% away from the previous ATH. In terms of loss of value, this is the easiest we've ever had it at this fear level.


SwampPants

This dip definitely taught me to keep some spare funds around for the next time something like this happens


Epyimpervious

Good for you, I really hope you stick with this plan because it can be super profitable


Specs_2020

Well this shit isn’t going to zero and if it does. I’m buying all that shit up


DZP

Goldman Sachs just issued an extremely positive report on crypto, especially calling out Ethereum's favorable potential. GS is a whale, and not stupid, so what happens next will be interesting. China and Elon took things down, and I think GS will alter that. ADDED: see good point raised by Jurph below. Also added: clearly part of what is happening is 1. that Chinese are panic dumping crypto before the bans come down, so their panic is pulling prices down. 2. Then the FOMO 'sell before it drops more' sellers add to the riot 3. And the 'Sell now and buy back at lower later' is adding to it too Then the rout won't stop until the Chinese are done, which may take awhile, and until #2 and 3 ends. I think now prices will continue to drop this week but that opens up good buying opportunities for later. But people holding off buying until further drops, will clearly reduce market and cause more drops; it all feeds on itself. Thus expect more drops for now. We'll see the market pick up in September and reach new highs later in the year.


Xennenial

Ignore both of emotions and muster any autism you can to make decisions.


M1zuo

LOL yes


junn7

Do one for the extreme greed


[deleted]

[удалено]


Womec

Pi-cycle top looking like a very good indicator now. Called this top but went right back under much faster than in the past. Reads like a near miss but it did call the top so far.


aladdinr

Do you have a site where I can see this? I need visuals to get what you mean


braised_diaper_shit

Yes in a bull market.


Koshepen

when people sell, you buy, when people buy...you...still buy


tiredofhiveminds

instructions unclear sold house for bitcoin


Sceptz

Instructions followed perfectly.


Koshepen

good soldier did it greatly


RoyceDaFiveNine

I sold everything and now I don't have any electronics to access my BTC and exchanges now.


tatabusa

Instructions unclear, bought someones house instead of bitcoin


4oranje

These are the posts we need...useful


Runfasterbitch

Based on the comments in this thread, folks aren’t too scared yet.


WatOfSd

Ive said it before and I’ll say it again, never take anything on reddit as the sentiment of the general public.


JohnnySixguns

I know 17 year old kids dumping their entire Chick-Fil-A paychecks into BTC, ETH and DOGE right now. I’d say we aren’t in a bear market for long. The world is changing. There is volatility but we are still at the very beginning of this insane ride.


PM_ME_PLASTIC_BAGS

Its insane how drastically sentiment changes in the area. There's too much potentially huge news coming for us to be in a bear market


hotdoghelper

Sentiment isnt helped when the vast majority of people entering the markets between the GME and Dogecoin booms are first time investors with little experience. These are the people who have the most to lose and will probably be the first to bail.


PM_ME_PLASTIC_BAGS

Totally agree. When people have experienced nothing but ridiculous gains regardless of what coin they 'invested' in, they have no underdeveloped of fundamentals and will abandon ship at a tiny leak.


Tellesus

I'm pretty new to actually participating but this reason right here is why I got in and plan on staying in. If it continues to go down, I'll buy more. Especially Eth, which has a solid tech and is seeding a great ecosystem. All of the actually useful tech is where I'm focusing my attention, because I'm using money that I can afford to hide in a hole for 10 years if I have to.


NastyMonkeyKing

What potentially huge news are you thinking. 2 big ones i can think of are listing on NYSE and eth 2.0 going live


chubbyurma

Good news is priced in


PM_ME_PLASTIC_BAGS

I'd bet anything that if/ when a US ETF is approved or if another massive public company announces that they've bought bitcoin the price will explode.


chubbyurma

Well I hope so. Van Eck saving the day would be great.


guerroguapo

We still have a ways to go down. Yeah the index is low but as seen in your research it can go quite a bit lower before we bottom out. Likely that bottom is closer to $20K.


WeeniePops

That would be very unchill.


_DeanRiding

Agreed


arrogoth

I hope so. I'm going to be making a lot of money this summer and I'd love to pick up btc for 20k lol


Robincapitalists

November 2018 was already after a collapse in the price. Looks more like December 2017/January 2018.


BeGoodie

This is why DCA is the ultimate strategy. Price goes down? Good, you've been buying at the lowest possible prices for the inevitable increase. Price goes up? Good, you've been steadily increasing your long position up until the peak (where you can take some profits) You're accumulating an asset with long term value. In every other part of our lives a low price is a good thing, so see it as an opportunity.


peduxe

I’m 24 right now, if this mean i’m gonna make bank on the next 2-4 bull markets i’ll happily keep investing every month. Looking at the future life of working a 9 to 5 until i’m fucked up from aging isn’t on my prospects list.


BashfulBeet

I can’t help but think that the index is missing something. As long as people are calling out to buy the dip, it’s not fear. As long as people are clinging on to positive signs and rejecting FUD, it’s not fear. The mere fact that this generally hopeful post exists shows that it can’t be at extreme fear. Don’t get me wrong, I’m also DCAing down and buying the dips, so I sure hope that the worst is over. My point is just that as long as I still see people calling to buy the dip and saying that the worst is over, I doubt that the worst is really over. This is gonna get downvoted to hell but whatever...


OrganicDroid

Are people really that concerned? I feel like BTC is still really insane rn. Think about it. We’re still well above $20k. That wasn’t too long ago. That’s amazing. Though I do realize people bought at the top. Hey, I did too a little. But I’m your average r/cc HODLing fuckface that says, just HODL. Because that’s what you do:)


ismashugood

Yea... the price now is the price it was 3 months ago. And 3 months before that it was at 19k. and 3 months before that, it was 11k. Everyone needs to zoom out a bit here. I think people should probably stop being embarrassed about buying at the top. The only way it's embarrassing is if you think you got scammed. If not, you still bought an asset you like, just at a steeper price. But you still have what you wanted.


meme_maker69420

So youre basically telling us to be extra greedy


BackgroundAd4640

I'm not even flinching. My 1st foray into crypto these last few months. Not fussed if it goes to zero I am here for the ride back up. Let's enjoy the ride together?


boooomskii

Tough convo How delusional are we all really? Like what the actual fuck? We do all the research, each coin is different, each coin solves a different problem, each coin has its own value...but does it really? No it fucking doesn’t! A $2 trillion market can lose half its value because some anonymous assholes are pissed off about some other guy that manipulated and bought the dip. And as always, we get reminded that our researched, independent, problem solving, world saving, made up digital shitcoin “currency” / “blockchain solution” doesn’t actually have the value we calculated it had, it just goes to shit because Bitcoin got sold. How is crypto ever gonna take over if we’re so reliant on bitcoin? How is crypto ever gonna replace anything when someone can just orchestrate a big sell and half our net worth is gone in an hour? How can this replace the dollar? Let’s say it did replace the dollar and all currency in 2008. What the fuck happens then when you have your house deposit sitting in your wallet because that’s where your wages were paid into and that’s where you saved and these guys decide to have a dick swinging contest and devalue bitcoin by 50%?? How do you buy/put down your deposit for the house that stays the same price? It’s fucking bullshit. No problems are really being solved by the etheriums, vechains, xrps, if they can became 10% of their value after a certain 4 year “cycle”. If they’re really worth that much, they should always be that much. You can’t just know the value is this but it’s only priced at 10% because of fucking bears in the wild (😅🤣) I’m not upset and ranting because my investment went down by 50%, I’m still up over 200%. I’m upset because I’m slowly realising that crypto will never really take over. I’m starting not to believe in the technology because it can’t just lose its value over night like that and only be valuable once every 4 years because some guy read a chart that went up because some whales decided to move their money into this asset once every 4 years. I personally cannot wait to have enough from crypto to start my own side gig and then eventually quit my job. I will still hold my vechain and xrp because of the potential that they could reach “once every 4 years”, but my goodness am I sick and tired of this bullshit whale action controlling and manipulating for fun. Crypto will never take over because of this (not financial advice, I’m not an expert in anything). Stocks are no better either. I’m very happy how so many of us have these asshole hedgefunds by the balls with GME and they get a taste of their own medicine. Unfortunately we can’t do that with crypto whales, we bow down to them and panic sell like little bitches. Anyway, rant over. TLDR - crypto is not going to take over if all cryptos are dependant on bitcoin, which in turn can be easily manipulated by a few anonymous whales for fun and lose 50% in a week! It’s just not right for something that was perceived to be worth $1.2 trillion becomes $700 billion because one guy placed a big sell order because some guy that created Tron pissed in the other guy’s cereal. It’s so stupid, that has nothing to do with the value of something!!! Am I crazy??


Radeath

What you have to realize is that the volatility will decrease and has been decreasing with every cycle. Yes this correction was nasty but there have been fewer corrections this cycle. Volatility is the price we pay for being early adopters. Once crypto becomes mainstream, the prices of things will steady, but will still be subject to market conditions, much like how no billionaire tweets do not affect the price of lumber, but it's up 250% over last year because of global market conditions. Once crypto becomes fully saturated in society, the crazy price crashes will be a thing of the past. However the trade off will be that the exponential growth that we're currently seeing will also no longer exist.


JaxonH

It’s a casino, my friend. We tell ourselves it’s solving real problems. And don’t get me wrong, some coins are. The problem is, the solution isn’t worth but pennies on the dollar we currently regard it as being worth. It’s a casino, and 99% here are trying to make the easiest money in their life. It’s a casino where the odds are grossly weighted in your favor compared to an actual lottery. We just tell ourselves what we want to believe to legitimize our gamble in the eyes of others... and even our own selves.


eri-

Indeed. I believe the, insane, Tesla valuation has blinded many young investors regarding how much a product or service is really worth. Billions dollar valuations are being thrown around like treats for a dog(e) with no understanding whatsoever as to what those kind of numbers really mean. Founding a billion dollar company irl takes tons of hard work and some luck, in crypto any monkey can do the same in days, as long as he/she has the hype on their side. Its simply not realistic.


ShortChecker

I have an opinion to put in here to your comment. 1) Cryptocurrency is still very well in infancy. Like anything whether it’s a business, stock, asset, commodity etc. When in its infancy there will always be volatility. Biggest reason is like stocks, let’s take Tesla as an example, people are trading at 80-90 P/E ratio, meaning there trading at the forecasted let’s say 10 year expectation of what the company will be at, but trading at those prices currently. As these are based on a lot of speculation, volatility is to follow. Same for many other stocks. 2) Crypto has stable coins that replicate the USD fiat rate. Theoretically, if “Everything” was to change to digital/crypto, you can just have your currency held in a stable coin, ex: your paycheques, basic funds, preauthorizes debits such as mortgage payments etc. 3) The markets crashing because of whales or bad sentiments due to media and media FUD has been a common factor in trading commodities. It happens all the time for stocks. The past 5 months stocks have been stagnant and trending downward because of bunch of reasons. Few examples, Shorts, Inflation, COVID, etc. All driven by media, people, and circumstances with big pockets trying to skew down prices and usually smart money will buy when others sell generating further profits and wealth. It’s all in the name of the game my dude. The longer crypto continues to grow and until adopted completely, we will see this volatility continue, but at some point in the future things tend to stabilize more when it’s mass adopted and has a large control on the economy. (More people invested in crypto, higher market cap, mass adoption, practically used, etc will develop more consistency and be less and less susceptible to such dramatic volatility and changes). But the reality, everything will have volatility and nothing is truly stable. But what you have to ask yourself is this, does what I’ve invested in provide value? Does it provide a solution? Is it innovative and new? Is is sustainable? Are there more benefits then cons? How early am I in comparison to it’s future? What does its future look like? And many other aspects to look at, but if you’re investments check off these questions then you should not fear. Just like a serial investor who invest on the fundamentals, business model, revenue, growth, life cycle, product & services, utility and future growth, if they believe in the company or product they’ll hold their investments and if anything buy more when it goes down because they know what the future holds in 5 years, 10 years + from now. They don’t look at what’s going on in the next week or 6 months, they look at the long term, and I think crypto should be viewed in this way as well. But hey that’s just my opinion, I’d like to hear others as well.


boooomskii

Very fair comment. You make good points. A lot of these coins are trying to provide value and yes it may be that the real value provided will be in 5, 10, 20 years time. In your Tesla example about volatility, yeah it’s volatile. But someone selling or shorting or manipulating Tesla won’t tank the whole stock market. It won’t tank Coca Cola or the cheese industry or anything else. It tanks Tesla. My argument was that some big boy bitcoin holder apparently wanted to liquidate another bitcoin holder so he was able to precisely bring bitcoin down to exact levels he wanted. In turn it also halved the value of all other 3,000 cryptos stupidly. Vechain is meant to offer solutions in supply chain and all that, has nothing to do with whatever we want to class bitcoin as (store of value or next payment processor or whatever). ETH is meant to do smart contract shit, how does the sentiment suddenly change that this beautiful innovation is now half the price because someone sold bitcoin? I could go with examples. So what I’m saying is, Tesla or lets say Whatever stock is top dog and market leader, that being sold doesn’t affect some other stock that offers a completely different solution/value. So bitcoin shouldn’t influence the rest, IMO.


immajuststayhome

I completely understand what you're saying, it's pretty absurd to be able to look at the charts of almost every coin and see them looking nearly identical to bitcoin during huge dips and surges. I've never understood (completely) why this is the case, when these coins are completely different storage options and/or solutions.


starfallg

Stable coins are the biggest problem right now because they are essentially a free license to print fiat and inflate Crypto. A Tether implosion is going to cause the next Crypto ice age.


ShortChecker

Can you explain this to me though? From my understanding USDT, BUSD etc are pegged algorithmically to reflect fiat USD. These coins make money from the trading/withdraw fees. I don’t understand how it’s a “free license” to print money. I don’t quite understand this point of view.


s-frog

The belief is that they are using crypto as backing for the issuance of new stablecoin. When the value of the crypto collateral increases they can make more stablecoin which they use to buy more crypto which increases the value of the collateral and on and on.


southofearth

They are supposed to be backed by deposits. The problem and the reality is that this is not transparent enough and not audited.


Jurph

If you are comfortable wading through some academic prose, go read [Griffin & Shams (2019)](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066). If that's a bit too dense -- and that doesn't mean you're too dumb, it just means you're not used to reading econ papers! -- read [The Story So Far](https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/10/28/tether-and-bitfinex/) or [The Bit Short](https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3). If you don't want to read those, here's my very short version. In order for a Tether to be "pegged", it must be redeemable for a dollar at any time. If Tether circulates 1M USDT but only has $100k in the bank, then only 10% of the people holding USDT can actually get a dollar back when they need one, and the real value of a USDT is more like ten cents. The way Tether guaranteed this was that they promised -- pinky-swears! -- that they would never print a Tether unless someone transferred to them a real USD. This "lockbox" of USD would have to remain on the sidelines, untouched, and not serve as collateral for other loans either. The point is that these dollars that are out of circulation must be _totally OUT of circulation_, so nothing can happen to them that hurts Tether's ability to pay owners of USDT. What happened instead was, Tether pretty transparently started printing USDT whenever they felt like it, and Tethers -- which are not regulated like dollars -- flowed into the market like Monopoly money. Because of Anti-Money-Laundering and Know-Your-Customer (AML/KYC) laws, the Tether is most useful in places that dollars can't get to ... specifically because, if dollars went there, the Feds would show up and arrest people for money-laundering. (Which is what BTC is primarily used for, by the way.) So "unbanked" exchanges -- where USD are not traded -- are the main customer for USDT. They get a fake US Dollar they can use as an intermediary to make trades that are _denominated in dollars_. As long as a USDT is really worth $1.00, that's fine. But if a USDT is worth much less than a dollar, and Tether is artificially holding the two even, then if USDT become the dominant currency for dollar-denominated purchases, the dollar-denominated prices will rise to reflect people's actual belief in the value difference. The sequence of most trades, then, goes like this: - Tether prints a bunch of USDT without receiving dollars - Tether passes USDT to unbanked exchanges so those exchanges can support dollar-denominated trades - Tether receives BTC or ETH in exchange - Tether sells their BTC or ETH for $USD and puts those in a real bank somewhere out of reach There are way more steps -- including things like Tether timing their high-volume BTC buys to artificially "juice" the price up, and put the brakes on BTC price drops -- but this is the essence of it. **Tether can create something out of nothing that it says is worth a dollar, sell it for a dollar, and walk away with that dollar.** Whoever is left holding the Tether when the music stops is the sucker.


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fenTaTa

Yeah you crazy lol.. Nah.. Blockchain has a huge potential but the price swings on the currencies say they are purely speculation. I don't see governments handing over the power to make their own money anytime soon. It's a huge part of what defines "sovereignty" So it boils down to 1) what productivity gains will a particular block chain tech give you? 2) how is this value extracted and to whom does it accrue? 3) how is external financing (such as buyers like us) to be used as investment. There may be other points but this is what I think.


MajorBeefCurtains

All money is imaginary and it always will be. Currency only has value when enough people agree that it does.


Karamazaov_fish

our only hope is for fiat to continue shooting itself in the foot with inflation. you are right to place a lot of your critique on the absurdity of the 4 year cycle: we perceive these coins and tokens to have value, achieving and competing in market caps etc, but theyre all reduced to nil when some asshole who eats waffles for dinner sells a huge chunk of bitcoin. wat is the point in owning crypto if ur networth is volatile as hell? if i can find one real ray of hope, its this: the more elon musk tweets, the less he moves the market. similarly, the bitcoin cycles will get old at some point (not soon). price will always fluctuate. the halving event will always catalyze cycle shifts... but if we know for certain that crypto is volatile, then we know with equal certainty thats its value grows, and that it always comes back, bc its integrity as a store of value cannot be rivaled. bitcoin primarily obv. its funny how things never go according to plan uk. life is chaos and unpredictable. the joke is maybe none of this will ever be used as actual currency. maybe ill never buy my gatorade with anything but fiat. but if u have top tier coins, and u want to buy a house, as absurd as this all is for every reason you said and more, you can still count on getting a good down payment in fiat out of your coins if you wait long enough. maybe im lost in my wishful thinking and got off track from what i actually wanted to say, but i think with more cycles, investors will mature to have diamond hands so to speak. like wat will investing in crypto be like in 50 years? well have more data. will us gov accept any other payment? no. they might have a crypto dollar, jjst so they can control supply and know how much is out there... futures bleak for every revolution. watd ya think? our roles are to try to leave things better than when we found them. that includes our economic structure, political institutions, and our own lives. block chain has a shot for elections at least... maybe the us will need eth one day. just once. ppl might vote for the usw of a decentralized block chain, we have to try


BWhitewind

>But at the same time a billion dollars of **stable coins** just flooded into binance and bifinex If you need the funds stable, and don't want to gamble, stash into stable coins and stake :) You can even use them to give yourself a loan while doing so. Some coins have liquid staking so you can do both at the same time. As to how we move away from BTC ruling the market and coins that don't even function holding the top spots we get there by being here now. The internet wasn't always so great but it slowly grew and advanced over time. Now we can gamble on crypto while gambling in virtual reality while gambling on the future value of the digital plot of land said virtual casino is built on. I'm not sure that's really a good thing but it's quite a few steps from waiting 15 minutes for a jpg of a cat to download.


creamyhorror

> Unfortunately we can’t do that with crypto whales, we bow down to them and panic sell like little bitches. You didn't learn this lesson in the 2018 crash? Crypto trading is just a game of whales and minnows - you ride the whales' moves and try not to get eaten along the way. Prices are just arbitrary pucks being pushed around by the big boys, not fundamentally a reflection of the value of their blockchains. Yes, the technologies work, but prices are decoupled from them: for most coins, there aren't even dividend cashflows (like those a stock would receive) to give them *real, rigorous* fundamental value. Sadly, opinions like mine get voted down in virtually all crypto subs, except during crashes. All there is is hopium, and delusion, and economically illiterate conspiracist thinking.


Jurph

> hopium, and delusion, and economically illiterate conspiracist thinking Whales can't _really_ make a profit unless they can persuade "the dumb money" to come sit at the table. These folks never heard the old adage about looking around the poker table for the sucker.


almondbutter

That's why I reallocated my BTC into ETH gains be damned.


awezumsaws

Crypto isn't about currency; it's about non-fungible, unique assets of societal value. The sooner people realize that, the sooner the fud goes away and the currency coins stabilize.


jjohns91

I love sentiment indicators! They work very well with stocks for finding bottoms. Hopefully crypto too. Good post.


e_x_p

It's an informative index, but my beef with this website is that it only shows me the right score AFTER a big drop/surge has happened. It needs to be more frequently updated to be anything useful.


toxiickid

Still positive for the year.


xfuneralxthirstx

I had to sell all of my crypto earlier this month,seems like the gods were smiling on me as it was just before the dip. Buying more when I get paid though 😁


Still_Lobster_8428

Care to expand on your yield farming strategy OP? I'm sure I'm not the only one that would be interested in hearing more about your strategy.


TommyTwoDicks

This is getting to be r/wallstreetbets GME level of sad with the crazy analysis and predictions of price changes. Almost nobody can actually predict what's going to happen. If you think crypto has a future then it will probably be going up at some point, it just may take some time and market fluctuations.


ffoott

+1 insightful!


KingXodows

man, great post, for real. i don't know yield farms and i think that i never saw hir talking about it, can you recomend me something to learn more?


thetagodfather

r/defi


DistantKarma271

Great post. Thanks for the contribution of actual quality content.


feel-T_ornado

My penny cryptos have become almost non-existent. It's interesting to pounder on wtf I thought they were good investment vehicles... I mean ElonMoon? Talk about greed. 😣😆 Cardano and some others are barely managing, thankfully.


SaltLifeDPP

I appreciate the breakdown. Especially notes such as the China pump to 11k. People forget about those euphoria rockets, but I think theyre important to judge the overall health of the market. We have now returned to pre-Tesla pump levels, but have not completely collapsed back towards the 2018 ATH. This, to me, is a very good sign of a continuing bull market.


Drbubbliewrap

Very interesting. I’ve never seen this fear/greed index before.


nerdge

So you’re basically telling me I need to sell my wife’s car too to rack up some fiat for the real dip?


trollmail

Some call it the bear market, I call it fire sale


barsch07

Man i wish I didn't come to crypto like a week before the crash :/


runningwithsharpie

Look at the BTC day chart. The RSI is extremely over sold. What's a likely scenario is that the price will go through a consolidation for a little longer before breaking the 42k ceiling. Will it reach the old ATH is anyone's guess. But up it will go.


jhaubrich11

I havent sold. I have been holding for three years. I lost more money in the 2018 crash. I am numb to the pain. I am ready to hodl until 2025


QuickAltTab

doesn't look all that fearful to me, shib, doge, safemoon still pretty high up in the rankings, when I see pure meme/pyramid scheme coins dissappear at least from the top 100, I'll believe theres some fear


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CuteBatman

I had 550$ of investment , and now it's down to 300$. I am thinking of exiting the market with the loss because 300$ means lot to me , its my one month salary! People telling me to hold, but I am new and not sure if the Market will fall and my 300 will become 0.


Cryptodragonnz

I felt the same in 2013 and sold my 2.5 BTC for like $1000 at a big loss !