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It’s already happening … skincare


And fragrance. I’m already seeing BGs shift to these categories.


Yes, same thing happening and I wonder how many of the new skincare/makeup brands will survive. Good luck to them if they sell good products for a good price but due to the fact that there are so many brands now they need luck to survive for a long time.


The k beauty market is just so much better than the western skincare I just can't see it actually happening, don't get me wrong these western companies are going to try their hardest and probably dupe old k beauty favourites, and try to tell people it's a brand new concept but they can't surpass them.


There is a large % of the u.s. market that is completely unaware of k-beauty trends


They’re widely available in places like cvs, Walmart, and Marshall’s


Still, there's people who just buy mosturizer and call it a day. If you start advertising this magical serum that their favorite makeup brand created, their minds may be blown.


It’s funny because I’m the opposite. I’m actually less inclined to buy skincare from makeup brands. I bought the milk makeup Moisturizer at tj maxx and was shocked at how good it is.


And it’s so much CHEAPER too! Even if you buy from websites like Stylevana. I can’t justify spending more than $15 on a sunscreen since K beauty makes such good sunscreens at such a good price. The only reason I don’t shop them more is because it’s harder to shop around when I can’t read the descriptions lol.


Then perfume then haircare then bodycare


That’s already happening. But the thing is, people are getting a little tired of that too. Because it’s been overwhelmingly saturated with so much skincare products. What I see is creative makeup taking the spotlight


Im thinking were gonna see another wave of brands closing just like becca, bite beauty etc. i also think more brands are going to diversify their line or have more lines like fenty skin and soon fenty hair to kind of fan out their line up since color cosmetics are kinda not selling as much as previous years. But i still think as a whole the beauty industry is thriving so brands will want to tap into the hair, skin, and body niches as well! I also think were gonna see alot of brands condensing their main line products.


I honestly didn’t even notice Bite go out. 😬


i will never understand why Becca closed down I always thought they were thriving lol


Actually after their big wave of hype from their highlighters in 2016 LITERALLY every one of their collections ended up on sale or at tj maxx which sucks because I actually really liked their products i just think their marketing wasnt up to par and we had an extremely over saturated market. I also think they had an issue keeping up with current trends, their products now would thrive in a kinda subtle, no makeup makeup environment


The issue is the type of products they were thriving with- many people can hang onto a highlighter for 5 years + so after the initial wave of purchasing I think they got stuck


A culling of subscription beauty boxes. Everyone’s got a stockpile of shit they’ll never use and 2023 will be the year everyone cuts back.


Reading this post made me wonder why exactly we take issue with an over saturated makeup market. Like, no one ever says there’s too many clothing brands and too many options in fashion, when it’s arguably even more over saturated than beauty. Essentially, makeup has become just like fashion. Companies have likely hit the ceiling for being able to mass produce the best formulations, and pretty much everything has been done on the creative/technique front. So it will become cyclical just like fashion. Trends will come and go and repeat. The vast majority of customers will continue to buy their basics from their tried-and-true brands, just like the vast majority of clothes wearers wear for function and shop at the same places. Then there’s us, the enthusiasts. To us this can feel like a rut, since we have spent years perfecting our techniques, hunting for holy grails, and anticipating the next big thing. But the fact is, when it comes to beauty/glam/every day makeup, there’s only so much we can do. At this point we’ve seen every major trend from the last 100 years come back but, unlike with fashion, there just *isn’t* enough variety possible for it to always feel brand new. I imagine trends will continue to be recycled, and new iterations of old formulas could come back (new and improved Maybelline mousse foundation, perhaps?). Not everything can be revolutionary all the time, so rather than saying the makeup industry is in a rut we can instead think that it has hit its stride and found its rhythm.


I agree! I don’t think it’s a bad thing. I remember as a teen there was limited makeup options for people of color. Now we have options that suit a myriad or skin tones, skin types, tastes, etc. Not everything is going to suit me, but it’s nice there’s more out there that is actually going to suit me. There’s something for almost everyone. I just don’t pay attention to that isn’t for me.


> no one ever says there’s too many clothing brands and too many options in fashion People do say there is too much clothes, especially with Fast Fashion (Shien, Zara, Boo hoo, H&M, Forever 21, etc). And clothing primarily serves a need *and then* a want. Fashion (as in the aesthetic part of clothes) is similar to makeup where its for esteem and and self expression, but clothes at their most base form are tools for survival. So unless someone is wearing makeup for camouflage, its not a need like needing to be clothed.


I get what you’re saying, though imo those are 2 separate issues/topics. Fast fashion being unethical is more akin to Colourpop putting out collections every 5 mins only to discontinue them creating waste, etc. I personally haven’t heard anyone complain about there being too many options for clothing styles making it difficult to decide what to wear and leaving nowhere to go creatively, like OP did about makeup options. Yes, clothing is at its core a necessity, but like you said fashion and the myriad of clothing options are for self expression. And, like with beauty, we use different products/pieces depending on the social occasion (work, brunch, wedding, etc). Perhaps not a perfect comparison, but my point was essentially: normalize the “oversaturation” of the makeup market. It is just another industry that has expanded to its limit, meaning there is something for everyone. The beauty industry will now recycle and readapt ideas, that’s where it’s headed and that is not a bad thing.


> I personally haven’t heard anyone complain about there being too many options for clothing styles making it difficult to decide what to wear I personally hear this all the time, so I guess its just anecdotal at this point.


This is how I feel. Even though it can be daunting navigating what is quality and what isn't, choice is always better imo because it encourages innovation, creativity and healthy competition for people's patronage. Not to mention that makeup is such an emotional purchase for so many people that it's great that there are so many options to appeal to people's niche


Maybe this will actually force many companies to put more thought into their collections and release them further apart. I remember when the Sephora catalog only came out 3-4 times a year, and it was something to look forward to. You don’t always need heavy marketing to create excitement. The wait creates anticipation, and I wish it could be like that again.


I don't think starting a makeup brand is as profitable as it used to be. Eventually it will hit a ceiling and more brands close down.


I’d much rather have more options than less. There are so many different preferences, I love seeing all the options and then trying things based on my own wants and needs at a variety of price points. Why would you want to be limited? That forces people to only buy the most trendy products even if that might not be the best for them individually. At the end of the day, even if people claim the market is over saturated, these brands are clearly making enough money to stay in business. The ones that don’t close.


I think about this regarding the christmas collections from Too Faced: they look the same every year and every influencer will tell us that the quality is not the same as other regular products (for that reason I never bought anything). But if they keep on coming with that its because they are making a lot of money with it.


This is always an interesting discussion to have because to me it's a case of different truths. I understand why people say the market is oversaturated and feel overwhelmed. That's a fair sentiment to have. But that's also a very USA sentiment to have. More accurate than saying "the makeup market is oversaturated", it is to say "the USA makeup market is oversaturated". For every new batch of brands that appears, only a couple, if it all, will come to non-US markets. Sometimes it's just the brand being new and needing optimal conditions to grow outside its territory, but I'd also say many brands do not seem to care. Even older brands or those that are well established, don't tread outside USA territory. It was not long ago that e.l.f. became available at a wider capacity for European customers via Beauty Bay - I'm aware there was a eu shop before but it was a joke. Never mind it shipped only to some 5 countries, always the same circle many companies equal to Europe, period, it seemed to sell old stuff only. As if it wanted to sell here the crap US didn't want. And I'd say that's a very popular brand. You'd think more would understand US influencers that promote what to them is obvious are watched by many international viewers who start craving the same. Even Essence and Catrice, for being German brands, don't treat both markets equally: strategy wise that's understandable, but why in a series of 8 palettes sell all of them in the USA and only 4 in Europe? Not even on Germany do natives get the same scope. The divide is even bigger between Western and Eastern Europe, and many friends of South American countries also complain about the lack of big US brands. So while I understand where everyone is coming from, I can't agree if it's not my reality or my sentiment. I'd assume it's beneficial to see 100 brands if that meant 30 would care about being available outside the USA: more low-cost options, more celeb-owned options for fans who care. After all, even brands like Maybelline can be twice as expensive here, when compared to the USA, on selected items at least. Nor do we have bargain bins and makeup outlets so we "wait for a sale".


What kinda sucks is I think its similar to the late 90’s dotcom burst, so many online companies was emerging and it was a lot. Some pulled through, some actually “worth” spending money on, a lot not. Sadly one of my favourite ones was Reflect.com where you could customize beauty products , like formulas, and it was saved for you to repurchase and came in a bottle with your name on it.


I think the economy will start to affect more brands, with the rising costs of everything being harder to absorb, and people having less disposable income for brands to justify increasing their prices by a lot (as consumers won’t be willing to eat the cost, or able to). Not all brands obviously, but I think some will feel it, especially smaller brands.


I can see more companies getting into perfume, like Huda Beauty with Kayali and the perfumes that MAC did.


fragrance is definitely the next frontier - we will come full circle to a ton of celebrities releasing fragrances again like the early 2000s. Ariana Grande is already doing it!


There have been celebs that have never stopped doing it. Celebrity fragrance never went away.


Like any industry: Some will survive and thrive, some will coast along doing well enough to keep the lights on and some will die. 🤷‍♀️ Buy from brands you like, skip ones you don't and don't stress about the rest.


I view it in a similar way as I view the cereal aisle at the supermarket. Why is there an entire aisle at a huge supermarket with nothing but breakfast cereal? It’s because that is what the market will bear. If nobody buys Grape-Nuts, it will disappear from the shelves but somebody’s buying it so it stays.


My first reaction to this comment was to agree, and then my immediate second reaction was to wonder aloud to no one in particular “what would be the make-up equivalent to Grape Nuts?”


Clinique (Lash Power mascara is my ride or die. Haven’t used another mascara for over 10 years!)


Lots of options and still haven't found a foundation match :(


imo? fragrance. i feel like perfumes are suddenly super trendy right now; i wouldn't be surprised to see celebrities pivot back to it. i wouldn't mind, tbh - i actually get a ton of use out of the perfumes i've purchased, way more than my makeup.


Any new trends in it? I still get a bit nauseous from many perfumes from having to ride busses with teens drenched in vanilla and old ladies drenched in flowery stuff. There was even a huge backslash on personal smells in my crowded hometown, where allergic people had to leave subway trains because of asthma attacks, I haven't noticed it much for a few years. :(


yea lmao, vanilla is *the* trendy fragrance for teenagers and twentysomethings right now. that being said, i'm also seeing a pretty big uptick in scents that people have taken to calling "my skin but better" - stuff like you by glossier, santal 33 from le labo, or pretty much anything from replica come to mind. ig i shouldn't be surprised that clean beauty's extended to fragrance. unfortunately, overspray is still a problem!


When a product favorite of yours is discontinued a good trick is to look at the ingredients because there is a good chance if they have similar ingredients they will perform just as well as your favorite products if it's usually a color match issue not a performance issue you are dealing with then there is so much duping information out there that I think the abundance of makeup lines is more of plus then a downside because it's more likely you can find a replacement.


Temptalia is a good help with finding the closest shade of another concealer/foundation and finding out if other brands have a similar lip shade. But it's hard for me to let go easily... For Example: Even though Candy Yum Yum and Pink Pigeon by MAC are close in shade, I still miss Pink Pigeon because it was more "wearable" than CYY. PP is not available in my country anymore.


What country are you in? It's available here in the states


Germany. Up The Amp is not available anymore, too.


I'm so sorry! Maybe we can do a makeup exchange sometime. Any unique makeup brands there?


Not really. Every brand that we can buy here is easily accessible worldwide, with a few exceptions. And don't worry, there was a time when MAC See Sheer wasn't available anymore and now it's back in Germany. There is always some hope left. :)


Here's hoping you get it soon!


Thanks! :)


I'll be honest, I've never thought of a beauty swap before, and I'm just imagining all the cool small, ethical business I could support. it's such a good idea!!!


Ya I wonder how we get that started!


I feel like the market can be pretty saturated because there are a lot of people with different preferences which means many different products from many different brands can exist in the same place. When people are brand loyal they can be loyal to more than one brand.


I feel like most of them offer the same claims and only a few of them have special products. Whenever a new brand comes out, it has all the basic products like foundation, concealer, eyeshadows, primers, eyeliner etc. It's hard to decide. This is what I experience when a favorite product of mine has been discontinued.


TBH I never really look at the claims of products. But even when products seem similar they can preform very different! But yeah faves being discontinued suck but that's also why people are always trying out new stuff.


This is how I feel. With more options available people also have more choices.


I don’t mind it, personally. More is more.


I think there will be significant growth in the skincare/cosmetic hybrid products and loser


I do think that we will see companies slow down with releases due to inflation and shipping costs. And while it’s not going to slow down the amount of companies I feel that those that slow down will gain more of a following while those that release every week will get exhausting and people won’t be buying from them as much.


Sex toys. Did I have a dream or is Sephora selling vibrators online now?


They are. So are Ulta and Urban Outfitters


the new Simihaze Beauty lip products definitely look like vibrators or sex toys to me LOL


It’s shifting to skincare and haircare now. I’ve never seen more shampoo at Sephora.


What I see as a makeup artist, is more creativity coming to the forefront with the saturation of makeup.


Honestly, is it awful for me to say that brands closing is overall more positive than negative? Individually, it is sad, but there are too many *mainstream* brands that **IMO** are a waste of people's money when it comes to product quality (which is my first requirement) and development. FTR, I'm mostly referring to brands in parent companies such as Urban Decay, Smashbox, etc


I think it will be pretty hard to stay in or enter the prestige/luxury market if you aren’t a well known makeup artist or fashion house, or a celebrity, unless you are doing something really special or have a substantial customer base already


I predict in the next 10 years or so we will see a LOT of studies and reputable sources condemning the use of toxic, cheaply made makeup products which disrupt hormones, endocrine systems etc. This isn't exactly a comparison of clean vs conventional makeup but rather just the veil will be pulled back on all of this toxic facepaint we have been putting on our faces/skin. People won't want that Morphe, Colorpop shit etc the way the clamor for it now.


For me I think it was nails, makeup,western skincare, eastern skincare, fragrance, bodycare max home fragrance