By - AutoModerator
Jimmy Barnes must be trying to subliminal message nrl view's to buy zip.
As a modern monetary theorist I'd like to address a conspiracy theory I've seen circulating about the cause of the recent UK financial crisis that I would just like to set straight.
Fake news actors and Russian bots have been spreading the theory that UK pension fund managers used long term government bonds as collateral to take out margin loans against people's retirement savings to gamble in the equities market and increase their profit margins, thus leading to pension funds getting margin called on government bonds, leading to the bond markets rapid collapse.
This is a gross oversimplification of an extremely nuanced and complex set of unforeseen circumstances.
What had in fact happened, was that LDI strategies used to protect retirees from interest rate exposure had secured large amounts of gilts to close the gap between liquidity and liability, in such a way that the unprecedented circumstances in the global economy, including a once in a lifetime pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, made it so that a rapid selloff of gilts required a direct to retail approach from the Bank of England to stabilize market conditions as per their mandate.
If you don't understand that, perhaps you shouldn't have an opinion on the matter and just leave it to the experts like myself with an economics degree. Government bonds are a safe asset class right now and I would erg you all to buy them.
how would you say this bit been working out for you over the last couple of weeks?
Are you raising your rents ?
It's the logical and ethical choice.
are you single and available by any chance? I need an economics degree in my life 🤰🏾
I havent heard a single person say that bonds aren't safe anymore? (I guess other than existential risk of the entire economy if you want to count that)
You have done a pretty average job of explaining what exactly happened for someone complaining about people oversimplifying it.
Also people memeing about BoE turning on the printers arent necessarily forming an opinion, rather laughing at the irony of the situation occuring, which is extremely ironic regardless of it being the correct course of action.
[How’s everyone doing for the year?](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_banned/comments/xtej9z/portfolio_ytd/)
Omg, When will sp500 hit 6000 points. Too much time to wait.
There is a much greater chance of you being genuinely retarded than the SP500 hitting 6000 points any time soon (which requires a +67.3% gain)
Could be never.
Buy when S&P500 Schiller P/E ratio hits 25 😎
There's definitely going to be a Santa rally this year, but it's going to be the evil Santa from Futurama.
I'm calling market bottom this month.
You mean... you expect me to back up my baseless assertion with evidence?
The hypothesis relies on several dependencies and baseless assumptions with a sprinkling of superstition, but I remind you, that this sir, is a casino:
* US CPI read on 13 October is supportive of inflation having peaked, and shows a reduction that exceeds expectations
* FOMC raises rates by .50 basis points on 3 November
* Market follows historical trends of bear markets finding their bottom /share market recovering from October
* October in mid term election years typically perform very well
* Would be consistent with average bear market lengths
* Perhaps some new lows to be found and stabilise out in the next couple of weeks
* Market fear guage currently high and approaching something like capitulation
All assumptions could easily go balls up. I'm gonna keep powder on the side and if Oct 13 inflation read is good, shopping list will be executed.
October (16th) also features the 20th CCP National Congress. Xi seeking an unprecedented third term. Could be some big announcements to stamp his authority and turn things around economically. Infrastructure spend, relaxed COVID settings.
I believe you were being encouraged to make a bet on your call.
Fine, fine. u/username-taken82, I'll take 2 weeks in the sin bin if I'm wrong.
(Cue rally commencing tomorrow)
XJO bottom for 2022 is during October or a fortnight in the hole.
We can settle this December 31st.
Edit: I originally said 2023, it’s the stress of the job I swear..
u/mcfucking I think this is my only other one so far
For 2022 and we're sold
I would agree with 2 of those assumptions, but even if I did agree with all of them, it's all through a very narrow lense.
Which two would you agree with, and what additional factors/broader lens would you adopt?
nb: we expect overall sentiment to be positive by default, but the reality is, it can be negative and have no reason to turn positive.
I would say it's narrow because it solely looks at financial data. Consumer data, Fed decisions, and historical financial data. Which can put our current position into context, but it doesn't analyse or demonstrate insight into the overall factors we face in this bear scenerio.
Other downward pressures that need to be considered for the stock market are: Putins war and its impact on gas/oil/fertiliser/wheat/global instability, supply issues, government bond purchases, civil unrest, government vs central bank conflicts... blah blah blah.
If we're contemplating the direction stocks go brrr, then we can be more specific in why we think the global sentiment will be positive from October forward. Why are we confident the majority of listed companies are growing, hiring, profiting, expanding within the next 12 - 18 months? What will we definitely know in October that makes the overall outlook positive.
>this sir, is a casino
>could easily go balls up.
Hard to argue those two points.
The great Darren Buffet always says: timing the market not time in the market
The great Leter Pynch says to deviate from what you know and yolo into what you don’t understand.
Exactly. Dazza gets it.
Anyone participating Melbourne marathon festival today? Can’t feel my legs now
The mental gymnastics I do to validate my stock choices is all the exercise I need.
As if a nuclear powered car, that can drive 3000km off 3 uranium pellets, has 3 days of battery charge as backup, is controlled by a lightspeed fast interface, that can read your mind (BRN), hasn’t been put into production!?
Jesus, haven’t heated about BRN for such a long time.
I'm feeling some sorta way about my lithium watch list. She glances at me with a slight twinkle in her eye and beckons me to partake in some degeneracy. Props if ya favourite lithium steeze has a shed. It has a shed right.? Right??
Sheds are overated, just need a Steve spruiking type running marketing.
With 4 walls to boot
I thought that I woke up at a respectable time today for once
MFW 5am had a 20% growth overnight
I respect you've been to bed.
Ok who FOMOed into BBOZ, BBUS, SNAS or are about to on open
Sold on Friday. Market to unpredictable to hold over the weekend.
The risk/return might not be very juicy now…
Only the clocks went forward,not the days of the week!
Heres some doom and gloom for y'all
Credit Suisse rumoured to be on the brink (its unsurprising considering their last few years, so hopefully enough institutions have covered themselves).
But also hearing Deutsche Bank in trouble... saw someone on bloomberg from DB spruiking the october bear rally and 'buy now' -> he sure sounded way too sure, now i guess he probably needs it to be true.
If the 3rd and 12th biggest banks in europe collapse they'll likely take out the rest with them.
Europe to go all Icelandic circa 2008 ?
European holiday coming up at the end of the year. Me likey the exchange rate if it happens, but will need to weigh it up against "Fury road: Bavarian edition..."
MQG gonna drill!
Broke off the relationship. Know what that means, lads? More money for avaaaaaaaaaaaa
You should definitely ask for telationship advoce at the AVA AGM and see what they say
Oh I've got lots of questions. It's structured in dot point form.
Depends if you were living together for 6 months 🤰
Cannot even not be a fuckwit for 6 months and we killed the spermies with hell fire so
Edit: fuck you cunt I burnt my toast replying to this ;) xoxox
Ah heck; commiserations, pal.
I'm good, bro. Amicable as fuck. And bruhuhb. More money for my main gaaaal avaaaaaaaa
Friends don't let friends trade drunk.
You guys trade sober? No hold the fucking phone. How the fuck are any of you sober ever (plz tell me i need to know).
Buy ava .
Also its the weekend, bro.
Liverpool absolutely getting smashed by Brighton. Love to see it.
As a Seagulls fan, that was both beautiful to watch and tragic. Much like my portfolio.
Well you jinxed that didn't you........
3-3 FT. A draw is as bad as a loss these days. Especially at home. Tragic.
Also jinx _not filled_
City running away with it 🤘🏼
68 mins theres still time for them to lose points!
JUST IN: Gazprom has cut off gas supplies to Italy
brb buying more coal, O&G
Let goooo! old swamp shit for the win.
What a miserable little Dobby-looking fucker he is. Some cunt should strangle the bastard with a sock and set the rest of us free from this bullshit.
Back from my month ban and not much has changed I see. Y’all still losing money n shit?
Fuck sake, market now going to open at 7am and close at 1pm in WA when you guys turn the clocks over. Probably the only bad thing about living in WA is the trading hours
Bro I love the 7am open! But I am awake at 4am everyday...
Waking up after market close is going to be a lot more common now
Now I have to pretend I’m not waking up earlier because of a gambling addition
As a landlord, modern monetary theorist, and Melbournian, I can quite rightly say that we are just a little more cultured here in Victoria than the rest of Australia. And so I have decided to raise my rents to compensate for this cultural premium.
Are you my landlord ?
By culture are you referring to yeast infections?
Satire has no bite when it's indistinguishable from reality. It's too feasible that these are the exact words of some parasitic fuckers.
But it was great satire.
Yes I’ve been there couple years ago, can confirm your meth comes in a nice little box when you buy it. Very cultured.
Excuse me, it's fair trade, carbon neutral, artisan meth, in a sustainably sourced, 100% post consumer recycled box.
Don't cheapen it to simple mass produced shard, like some Sydneysider.
Does that mean that when you decide to buy an investment property in Moe that the rent goes down?
Perhaps an additional premium charge for Acland St "diversity"?
Moe Kmart usually has all the overstock of the discontinued items. So if you want something *even cheaper* or otherwise unavailable, it's there.
That's the only saving grace of the place as far as I know.
Next time I need a hot pink foot spa, I’ll keep that in mind .
💕 🦶 💸
I do not buy properties. I inherit them from father's trust.
Just finished watching the Netflix limited series on GameStop and that wild ride. And now here I am looking to join in the fun.
Diamond Hands: The Legend of WallStreetBets is great too. You can sail the dark seas for that puppy if netflix doesn't have the goods.
Just in time
Am I the only anal cunt that changes the clocks now, instead of waiting til tomorrow?
That way, when I wake up, I look at the time, and it’s correct.
Instead of thinking - oh nice it’s only 8am - WRONG CUNT! It’s 9AM!
I’m pretty anal though. My friends call me anal king. I don’t even do anal?! Crazy.
But Tom and Barry do Anal to you so the name still works.
I'm an autist where every "clock" in the house bar my bedside one = apple device.
Yeah I’ve been trying to think/plan like it’s already changed all day. Makes it easier tomorrow! I didn’t go so far as to change the clocks already though
It’ll change your life. Highly recommend it.
Nothing like waking up and seeing the actual time.
or just use a smart watch/phone/laptop that updates automatically...
Yes, some say you _are_ very anal. Some say the analest.
Tesla's humanoid robot is embarrassingly shit. Change my mind...
Look I've always had an issue with Elon.
Scares the ever living shit out of me.
Have you heard the interview with Kara Swisher?
I know, right?
That unconvincing scare-mask of a face, you'd think they could have made one which wasn't constantly smirking.
Then the indecisiveness. I thought androids were supposed to operate on logic? One minute it wants to buy twitter, the next minute it's calling the deal off, ranting about "bots". What kind of hypocritical bullshit..!
It would have been underwhelming 10 years ago, but at present? How embarrassing. Tesla -40% on Monday
The fact they weren't confident enough to have it do anything other than walk on a flat surface live tells me it doesn't work properly, otherwise there was no need for it to stand still while we watched video of things it can allegedly do. The Honda ASIMO was way more advanced in 2011 but cost $2.5m. There's no chance in hell Tesla can (a) make this robot work reliably and (b) deliver it for $20k. Their second Tesla gimp bot didn't move and had to be carried out onto stage by five men.
Hyundai have actual working robots in the form of owning 80% of Boston Dynamics and they trade at a P/E of 7 instead of 95.
The Boston Dynamics robots are impressive. Didn't know Hyundai were majority owner, ty.
The MAKERS OF Boston Dynamics robots are impressive. <--I mean, the brains behind the below is just... \*chefs kiss\*
This primer on boston is insane - praise be youtube algo:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLSqc-p4UhI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLSqc-p4UhI)
the Bjork video is hte radness too:
The making of:
(sweet jesus - excuse me whilst I go down a chris cunningham black hole...)
I don't have to click the link to know exactly which Björk one you're talking about. It's a good'n. Starts with really satisfying bass, too.
"Joga" from the same album has real nice low strings in it as well.
Does anyone here have retarded speakers on their set up?
I have edifier, they are ok.
I have them in a 7.1 as side speakers. Does the treatment.
I know its a long shot, but anyone here at this wedding at Warwick? Wanna talk lithium or wildcat drilling in Zimbabwe than generic small talk? Help a brother out 🙏
I'm the maid of honour. Give me a spank to identify yourself.
Well that was enjoyable for one of us
I'm the older, heavy set guy that's been tearing up the dancefloor . meet me in the bathroom. last stall. let's talk.🤰🏾
Spending so much time in the bathroom waiting for my moment. Whispering lake, cxo, pls, waka waka... no answer yet
ANL opens the door and more 🤰🏾
Gets on the floor? Walks the dinosaur?
I’ve been waiting here for 20 mins to take a poo!! Why can I see four feet?? Why do I keep hearing “99.97% purity”??
[Burkina Faso soldiers announce overthrow of military government in second coup this year](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-01/burkina-faso-soldiers-announce-overthrow-of-military-government/101493868) Ibrahim Traore is a Burkinabé military officer who overthrew Interim President Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba (who also came to power via coup).
Beats me how soldiers can overthrow a military government, but there you go. Interesting times for PRN, MKG, WAF, ARM.
It's interesting that Damiba (Burkina Faso) and Doumbouya (Guinea) were both trained by the French military and Dambia spent a further decade training in the US before they both came to power in coups. The spirit of the School of the Americas lives on.
Ok, after some googling I just learnt of a new country
Most unstable country. It's my goto example for geopolitical risk
I had to make a trip into the Perth CBD today, it continues to be a cesspool I want to avoid at all costs 👍
Southport is Freo. Perth is Brisbane CBD. St Georges Terrace maps pretty closely to Queen Street/Adelaide Street home of meth, muggings, and homeless.
Not even close but yes there are quite a few meth heads. CBD has got a lot better with all the secret little bars
If the goal of trading was to try and be the first one to zero then I’d be in the top 1% of self wealth clients performance.
Proud of myself
I checked VAS share price performance, YTD.
-16%. Worse than my speccies. Embarrassing.
Cash is the best performing blue chip right now.
So what you are saying BHP is where I should park my money.
Feels good being less shit than VAS. Even better then being more green than VAS when times are good. AusFinance in shambles.
Just put on *'The Big Short'* ...
I need to get myself a good quant.
Boomer WES a buy atm?
<$38 is a buy from me dawg
Market open when?
I miss my Barry time. should ring relationship therapist.
Textbook abusive relationship
next investors are now putting this link in their emails to a FAQ page, so you can find out more about “how their service works”. Great to see they’re taking accountability seriously now:
A page not found link? How professional.
Never heard of them, surely they are riding a real fine line lol
The one and only Dr Shane Oliver's weekly market wrap is worth a read: [https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2022/september/market-update-300922](https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2022/september/market-update-300922)
If September felt bad, it's because it was. World and US markets were down 8% for September, and Australia was down 7.5%. The XJO is also not far off reaching its June lows.
Current state of the markets:
* Despite a brief mid-week bounce shares remain oversold and could still have a more sustained bounce from these levels. But beyond that they remain at high risk of more downside in the short term as central banks remain hawkish, recession risks are high and rising, the conflict in Ukraine looks likely to escalate with Russia moving to annex occupied territory, we remain in a seasonally weak period of the year for shares out to mid-October and earnings expectations are still being revised down.
* While investor confidence is very negative, we are still yet to see the sort of spike in put/call ratios or Vix that signals major market bottoms. A decisive break below the June low for the US share market could open up another 5-10% leg down with a similar flow through to Australian shares.
The hopium is this:
* Predictions that inflation will fall faster than the Fed is now expecting
* While short term inflation remains high, indicators are that the US has reached peak inflation, pointing to sharply lower inflation ahead which should enable central banks to slow down the pace of hiking by year end hopefully in time to avoid a severe recession (except perhaps in Europe)
Public holiday and the markets are open, the dream is real.
Bullish long weekend.
Might be better off closed from US market's deep red
Seriously? Thought it was closed
Huge amount of value trading on Hong Kong markets in the future. Tencent looks so cheap it's insane. Just gotta wait for the us dollar to drop.
If you think Tencent looks cheap you should see Fivecent.
If you include inflation, fiddy cent quite overpriced. Good value if you bought his albums early.
Get Rich or Die Tryin - great album about fiddy's investing journey.
So…. Did she cheat or not in the high stakes poker game? I think no she just addicted to meth and retarded but up for discussion 😂
God I've spent too much time on this, i have no fuckin idea
Consulted Steve Albini (pro poker player, sound engineer) on twitter and I have no fucking clue what the fuck is going on as per usual. Good luck making sense of it.
Honestly I just came for free meth 😒
I just came for Steve Albini (sure he gets that all the time… I’ll see myself out…)
I’m permabanned from Twitter. Not even annoyed lol.
Is that you Donald?
so I watched the video and have zero clue about poker so I have no credibility.
But didn't she just gamble and win ? What's the big deal and why would it be called cheating ? Isn't that what cards is all about - bluff - maybe I've got a better hand, maybe I have haven't, but it's the ability to out-bluff.
Explain it to me like I'm a 2yr old.
Yup, she gambled and won. Dude's highest placing is 143rd, it's not like he's Phil Ivey. If everyone played like a pushbot there'd be no point to poker and no ability to bluff or chance it all on a lower percentage hand. There's plenty of games which have been won on far bigger hands with far worse odds. Adelstein is just a sore loser.
Maria Konnikova wrote an entire book pointing out that being a good looking woman required one to change how they played poker because men expected them to be weaker and called their hands much more often than they would a man, but that this was also an advantage because men would go in with worse hands against good looking women and go on tilt quicker.
I think the cheating claims is based around her fumbling and bumbling trying to explain why she made the call which was pretty incoherent and inconsistent (She said I didn’t think your Ace high was good. If she thought he had ace high then she’s still got the losing hand).
I will say tho, RE the claims of a pager/buzzer in her pocket communicating with her. Why would she make the call with a 53/47 chance on the river? Still a coin flip at best for a lot of money.
Would be a credible claim if she had 80/20 chance of winning/calling down a big bluff.
Does that make sense? (Tried to remove the poker slang where I could).
appreciate your effort - thanks !
im dumbing it down even further....if the chance is 53/47 - at almost even chance of winning, that's what you're there for though right ? She still had bucket loads of chips, so didn't look like it was her last play - again I have zero clue, but I'd say do it ! 50% odds look good to me
Hmm, not particularly.
She should reasonably expect that he could have any pocket pair, any card higher than a J, any 9,10 or 3.
For such a big bet she’d usually be calling with Ace or King high at the absolute worst.
However like I said on a different comment, I just think she might’ve just had no idea what was transpiring (sometimes you can look dumb when trying to justify outright bad play). Alternatively she just doesn’t like the guy and didn’t wanna fold to him (I’ve very much done that before haha).
Edit number 10 😵💫: These pros should be begging to play with players like this. More often than not they’ll come out ahead. They just don’t like people playing against the grain, way less predictable.
Don't think she cheated, just ran good. I've seen worse players win more with less lol.
J rag for 200k is right up there with as bad as it gets haha.
Yep, pretty sick. She clearly has no idea IMO , just a fish playing with Daddy's money and tilting pros who should know better.
Also he has a long criminal record lol
New update. The guy that does the graphics for the cards just got caught when reviewing cameras from that night stealing 15k in chips from her stack. Exactly 10% of her winnings that night. She is not pressing charges 😂
I’ve played a lot of poker. My take is that she just didn’t know what’s going on.
More money than sense.
I agree. Have you ever seen Poker Bunny, basically the same kind of stupid. Called an all in recently without knowing how much money was pushed then after 30 sec realised that she made an error and asked for her money back 😂
Not cheating just really dumb move. I do some dumb plays in our poker games but this is something else
I’m reasonably confident it was a dumb move and she clearly has no poker knowledge after her lame attempts at trying to explain her strategy. However her lies after the fact are very weird. Like he took her down a hallway and threatened her for the money? If you watch the stream you can see and hear them talking about it in the middle of the casino not a hallway, that’a odd. But still think meth head and ditzy
Was is it for their actual money?
Putting 200k on 7,8 clubs flush chance is a bit dumb too.
Yeah, some of them are staked but the bloke who got beat bought in for a mill Garret uses his own money I believe. She was most likely staked by sugar daddy.
The 7,8 clubs move is a good bluff move
If he’s willing to gamble 1m I’m sure he’ll be fine haha.
Yeah his net worth would be around 30-50mill if he plays with 1 mill.
Too late to buy snas?
Yeah it’s the weekend
My bucks party today! Turns out I have pussies for friends.. Anyone want to come to a bucks party at the Gold Coast? *best comment gets an invite
Ibwould be so in if I wasn't at the stupid central voast of nsw with my lameass family celebrating a stupid lame important milestone fucked up on stupid expensive wine.
We saw a lot of boobies. It was nice 🤫
Hahahaha sounds like a bucks!
that family sounds like a real drag. just cut 'em loose🤰🏾
Won't I have to give them half my speccies?
Who gets married during a bear market? 🤰🏾
Hahah you think I have friends AND a black van! This is a recession.
Yo yo anyone who has travelled to Vietnam what was your favourite things you did?
Two chicks at the same time
How much did it cost? Have to work out my budget
Go canyoning/abseiling in Da Lat