T O P
Massive_Button9434

Isn't the outlier AVZ, because eventually they will hold 0% of their project ?


WowVeryJosh

Can't sell your spodumene if you never get a mining licence


forg3

Didn't get the response you wanted on HC, Mr MinerTrader?


coopperr90

Care to add SYA to the list? Not in production yet but they are very close to it


BuiltDifferant

I would only use like $4000/t to get somewhat plausible figures. You don’t wanna go full hot crapper


throw23w55443h

Arent LLL 2 years from production at least? The lithium price is great and all, but over the next few years there'll be a lot of of producers coming online and it's unlikely that the price will stay high the more supply there is.


Crackersnuf

Yeh there will be more supply, but there will also be substantially more demand. Supply deficits are forecast well into 2030’s


throw23w55443h

Supply deficits don't always mean the price goes to the moon or stays high forever. Could it go higher, yes. But there are a lot of miners coming to production in the next few years.


Crackersnuf

Yeh it definitely won’t last for ever, but until there is more demand than supply, which isn’t forecast for a long time, prices will stay high. PLS former CEO has made comments over a year ago that we could see spod prices reach $10k. I have no idea whether that will eventuate, but we are in a unique period of time.. who knows?


mineralman94

Producing Q1 24 and sooner then LTR.


Far_Unit9020

I'll take the other side of that bet if you're willing to? LTR to produce first, or I take a 1 month ban. LLL produce first, or you take a 1 month ban. Deal?


Outrageous_Junket817

That’s right, due for a pull back, although LLL does have a similar size to pls in terms of production outlook. Possible with the cheaper labour hire, they won’t be affected as much as pls when price of lithium comes down


Crackersnuf

How did you work out LLL’s production rate of 726k? Stage 1= 506ktpa (2024) Stage 2 = 831ktpa (+ 12 months from nameplate.. so that’s probably Atleast mid to late 2025)


Far_Unit9020

Same with LTR, (& PLS) etc, ect The figures appear to be eventual production targets, not current (or initial) rates?


nohorncap

My noob understanding is that PLS auctions in themselves are outliers because most mines already have agreements in place re: pricing. I don’t see how you can base sector pricing on auction pricing. Yes, it’s an indicator, but it’s not the whole story.


Crackersnuf

The genius of the BMX auctions are that they are a price discovery tool. It highlights how much the market is willing to pay. Before this, it was hearsay, or rumours. Having proof of current spot prices helps put the negotiating power back into the miner. It also highlights the benefit of having a surplus of spodumene, specifically for sale on the spot market (which PLS has begun doing). The business of offtakes it great for getting a mine up and running, however in this unique market, those who don’t have all of their production locked up to contracts will reap the most gains.


WowVeryJosh

💡


nohorncap

So I've collected a grain of sand on the beach of getting half a fucking clue re: lithium?


WowVeryJosh

This is spot pricing. Most miners are locked into offtake agreements either at fixed pricing, or using discounts to spot pricing or some formula around spot pricing, but not spot pricing itself. Although some even have price ceilings. Very few producers will have room to offload additional SC6% into spot markets.


nohorncap

Thankyou. As u/Crackersnuf points out, genius having BMX. What no one seems to have mentioned - double genius for creating their own auction platform, which to me is the equivalent of creating your own ebay. Genius, yes?


[deleted]

Ltr🚀🚀🚀


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