By - AutoModerator
Good day for my lithium gambling habit
Anyone else on the Gascoygne rare earths nearology play LNR? Had an amazing month. Gone from -40% to +100%
I clearly have a problem.
I bought more ZIP….. but then it went up 🤷🏼♂️
I think the report is coming out tomorrow and people were pumped that it will be good. So they bought to get some tendies tomorrow.
Well, if you're so confident on ZIP, don't buy shares.
Buy Call AND sell puts!
Can't go tits up!
I thought you liked ZIP.
PTX big oof.
Sorry for calling you a slutty cow IVZ.
Please go back to only going up vertically you naughty fuck.
My boi EHL continues to climb. Up 24% since I made a post about it and it doesn't look like it's stopping anytime soon
You manipulating the market ?
Of course, my post that got 7 upvotes changed the course of the stock 😎
My next prediction is that zip will go down
> zip will go down
make a bet?
LMAO FUCK THAT. How the hell did it go green after that atrocious report jfc
Couldn't resist, topped up MI6 again today.
Many fingers crossed these upcoming drill results get me close to my 3 bags
How many shares?
Not as many as I would like, about 8K atm worth for average of .35c - saving up to start a family so fun money is low
After NVA- I'm ready to be hurt again
Jesus, that was my 6th red day in a row. Shout out to fucking IXR.
Yeah REE prices have been pretty abysmal off China supposedly upgrading their output for the next 6 months (pretty much twice a year for the past 5 years)
I expect the prices to turn around soon as China has reduced RE exports by 10% recently (funnelling it for internal demand first) and they release they can't mine and process RE quick enough to meet their output expectations
So ixr back to 10c ?
2.5c first please.
I bought at 2.5. Haha
>Yeah REE prices have been pretty abysmal off China supposedly upgrading their output for the next 6 months (pretty much twice a year for the past 5 years)
!RemindMe 6 months " Calm\_Lengths said its going up"
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LRS moon time
IHL getting closer to my "to cheap to refuse" price
? You had a month of ihl floating around 20c a few weeks ago....
Yep and I was a pussy ass bear bitch and I didn't average down
Unbelievable that EXR would finish flat after all the high quality winds they've mined over the past year
ASN doing a nice 20% to make up yesterday's pullback. Noice!
Up $20k on PLS, yeeeew!
Sure is mate, I'm back to a house deposit on PLS, so do I continue to hold and hopefully buy half a house in a years time, or play it safe and take some off the table now... decisions.
7 more days like today and I'll ....be break even
LTR doing great things
HNR and MFG holding me down, not to mention my ETF dogs haha
my LTR is flying
Right now you’re just kittensforlambos, but in 7 days, maaaate …
I swear everyday I hear about a speecy mining company I’ve never heard of before from you lot, and I have no idea how you people even find these company’s
Just look through the asx for the lowest priced shares, .0001 cent? Fuck mate imagine that hitting $1 you’ll be rich as! Don’t google market cap
ANW is the best. You can buy as many shares as you want!
You mean ANL!
That's how it feels when you start...but after a while you become like the Crazy Cat lady who knows the names of all 87 different stray cats..... except they're dogs
Lately I've found myself walking around the house rambling all different kinds of tickers out loud. I-Its not just me is it?
Looks like I’m buying FLN tomorrow! Up 7% today, next stop the moon
Bought LLL on a whim yesterday arvo. Good day….. can’t wait to watch it fucking crash and burn.
What a day, up almost 6.5% bloody cheerin
What else you holding? WHC and TER are more than 90% of my pf
I got GRR which was up 12% today (fuck knows why). WHC, NRW, and MME.
Up almost +11% for the day on DEL and WMG, someone must have thrown $10 in
Very keen on WMG
Its ok, DEL will take that back in a day or so.
Probably when they release quarterly or whatever on the last possible day again showing they’re still waiting on financing 🤡
So...time travel and Wild Mass Guessing.
What can go wrong 😘
E: actually these are currently my only two holdings+SNAS lol
Time to back up the truck at these IVZ levels
Take the L
Just a cheeky HC reference joke
someone bought yesterday's high. hehe.
WHC with a strong finish. Yearly earnings tomorrow. 🤰🏾
WHC for sure cracking $8 tomorrow can’t wait! 🤑
BPH performing stronger than expected.
I'm pretty sure grey for BPH would be performing strangers hanging expected.
☢️☢️☢️ has never looked this good..
Only 5 upvotes, plenty of leg for U to come.
It is early days
two weeks ago it looked better
There’s always one…
[Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to call for development of new-generation nuclear power plants](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-call-development-construction-new-generation-nuclear-power-plants-2022-08-24/)… I dunno dude, that’s pretty damn good news..
Does this not mean more nuclear supply therefore lowers price? (Im new to nuclear be gentle)
More uranium supply sure does lower the price. Where is the supply? Most Uranium companies don’t produce and the ones which do, aren’t producing much in the scheme of things..
The supply / demand gap was already ~45m pounds before all the developments in the last year (Russian invasion, inflation act, German restarts, Japan restarts). A very underfunded sector, even though nuclear [is the best](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/smashing-atoms-the-history-of-uranium-and-nuclear-power/) current energy source (in terms of energy density).. I am extremely bullish
Hmm seems like all Japan has to do is turn them back online
Anyone in any hydrpgen stonks?
Thanks! Will check it out
LIO? They’re gas and oil disguised as hydrogen.
PRL looks good but a long way to go.
Fucking HZR. They need to get their shit together, pull their finger out and let us know what the fuck is going on with the CDP.
Hydrogen far way out. Id rather just invest in FMG
So would I. I need to scratch some money together so I can start wheeling fmg.
Apologies for the typo i meant 'hydrogen' i have a dick for a finger and a finger for a dick hard to type
That must be a troublemaker sometimes. Scratch an itch in your eye and a moment later you're receiving a facial.
you do know there is an 'edit' function ?
Looking at HGEN vs yoloing into PRL, HZR, PH2, etc.. want to feel out the vibes here... i sold HGEN because it was going down but now its going up...and it does not seem to have much exposure to Aus hydrogen stocks either and news articles seem very postive on Aus hydrpgen production and export
Nothing ASX in HGEN. The best ASX hydrogen stock hasn't listed yet...
Theres only a few green hydrogen plays: PRL, PH2, HXG
HZR is a green if you squint, because they're using methane by product.
Leigh creek had a thing with blue hydrogen, which is a crock of shit if you ask me.
BPH and EXR have both floated the idea of getting into hydrogen. LIO did so last year, with no news.
GEV is trying for a hydrogen transportation game, but their supposed tech smells like a scam dream to me.
FMG is getting into hydrogen and green steel.
I’ve only looked at the surface of GEV. What’s the scam smell from their tech?
Firstly, I don't think they properly figured out how to solve hydrogen embrittlement, second their ships energy density doesn't even co.pare to a regular tanker, let along a super.
I believe their transportation si the equivalent of 50k barrels of crude as opposed to the 500k of a supertanker.
Also, the Singaporeans and everybody else is investing in pipelines.
Here I was hoping they were using some metal organic frame works to hold more hydrogen.
Yea Singapore is big on getting in solar from the NT via under sea power lines apparently.
Anyone else bagholding RNT with me? This weak sell side has been lingering for weeks and I've just been begging for some good announcement to run me up to breakeven so i can get out of this dog.
>nnouncement to run me up to breakeven so i can get out of this dog.
lesson for all. what made you go in and why now being down breakeven is good?
Because their new big toy rentpay already had to be reworked because the onboarding was shite. They've wasted a fair bit of time and money doing that. They also had a really solid and profitable product in the renter resume and search which was gaining traction and they have seemingly stopped pushing it. I expected all their products to grow together.
Do I think they could be worth 100m at some stage? Yes, plenty of avenues. Do i want to be in for as much as I am after the last 6-12 months of development? No, I'll probably leave a few thousand in but im not keen on this much exposure anymore.
>Because their new big toy rentpay already had to be reworked because the onboarding was shite. They've wasted a fair bit of time and money doing that. They also had a really solid and profitable product in the renter resume and search which was gaining traction and they have seemingly stopped pushing it. I expected all their products to grow together.
>Do I think they could be worth 100m at some stage? Yes, plenty of avenues. Do i want to be in for as much as I am after the last 6-12 months of development? No, I'll probably leave a few thousand in but im not keen on this much exposure anymore.
intensive answer. Nice. easy to judge but not aware of your intensity.
Id also say, their marketing is getting articles in financial review and eliteagent - which feels like they are pushing to woo agents. My hope is when they get their ARPU up with partnerships with Origin and hopefully others they start pushing direct to their target audience too. They have 3k customers and potentially 7000 more with their harcourts deal.
If they can get to 50k users, which is a small fraction of the 2.9 million renters, I believe they start to look more operationally profitable. The hope is with any momentum they can parlay that into being the place renters go back to. Currently using their rentpay app renters increase their credit rating paying rent, I also believe they can pay with a credit card. They also give small loans for a week of rent for customers over 30 days, which makes them money.
Theres lots of pros, but nothing they are doing cant be replicated which is why the slow development is the big concern for me - what happens with a company with extremely deep pockets decides to do everything and pump marketing.
Anyway, im rambling.
I'm down 72% on RNT. Hopefully they will sign up a big name with a huge rent roll soon.
Trading halt would of been nice PTX, you bastards!
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.
It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.
Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.
Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
You can fuck off too !
🙈 I'm way too hard from PLS to be doing day care pick up...
Man up: tuck it under your belt & continue to grin
Ah great, that's why I invented Uber for Day-Care pick up :)
Listing on the ASX soon
Is next investors still a thing?
Or did /u/mutated_cunt kill them with journalism?
Yeah still get the emails - good for the lols
They’re a thing, I’m still down 80% on their speccy silver play, TMZ. The cunts owe me an epic pump!
>They’re a thing, I’m still down 80% on their speccy silver play, TMZ. The cunts owe me an epic pump!
TMZ looked good until it flopped
I’m the dumb cunt for not selling, tripled my money when I first invested. Learnt a valuable lesson in taking profits!
>Learnt a valuable lesson in taking profits!
yea need to do that , because there is always another pump around the corner.
I have the problem of keeping too long or too short. But for me , as long as I have logic rather then fear or FOMO as the key point of why I went in.
Going in because you think that the other is the greater fool can work but recognizing that and position sizing can work but day trading is way too hard.
I've been following them with SGA. They actually took a trip to the drill site in Kazakhstan. They definitely are good propaganda DD.
100% it is still a thing...
Can't recall which stock it was of theirs - there was another jump a couple of weeks back, one of their favs, within minutes of their update it did it's \`circa 2020\` run for the next 2 hours. (If it pops in to my head which one it was I'll update the comment)
I remember seeing the jump at the time - a quick check on them, and they had just popped out an email.
So not only are they still a thing...there's still peeps following and doing stuff based on what they're saying
Well i'm still going to tell people you killed them with journalism. But then they got better.
Still a thing, if anything they're wealthier and doing more deals than ever.
One thing that's changed is they're a lot more transparent about how many shares they own, and how their business model works. I suspect this has more to do with ASIC putting out the hits on finfluencers than a cunts ramblings on reddit though
"this has more to do with ASIC putting out the hits on finfluencers than a cunts ramblings on reddit "
i would bet that your "ramblings" gave them plenty of sleepless nights and many heated office meetings. Oh, and i bet they were calling you by your sir-name quite a bit too.
YAY /u/mutated_cunt KILLED NEXT INVESTORS!
BPH proving to be a bit of a disappointment...
Yes, it didn’t keep just going up and up and up
too early. give it time.
Let the games play out.
politics is always unpredictable because our rulers are good at hiding.
Bunch of cunts our rulers are
I think it proved that long ago.
SYA touching 0.30 again
☢ up ~10%
I don't know what has happened and I am not going to question it. Time to take some small profits before someone slaps me out of this dreamland
LKE's getting ready for a run.
That’s it I’m a fully pledged ramper now. Pack your spacesuit nerds ASN is off 👨🚀
CXO doing its thing
ASN, you’re my new favourite stonk. Can’t even remember why I bought it but all good!
I bought because lithium good.
AKE & PLS swinging their big lithium dicks. Portfolio is loving these roosters.
Any holders of ARR just perpetually frustrated/ bag holding?
I’m actually green but afraid if I sell it go’s to $10,
We are both trapped
Im financially trapped. You’re just psychologically trapped 😹
Probably just churning through the recent CR shares...
like most other RE stocks
*(just ignore the falling RE prices)*
>(just ignore the falling RE prices)
im thinking of getting into REE. 😃🤤
Nice, which REE company are you looking at?
PLS may get a record for most mentions in recent times in the upcoming premarket thread lol
I swear to jebus I just want MAY to put me out of my misery and make an announcement already
Interesting place to beg for a goat.
PLS is at the point where if I'd bought it when I was going to in the lead up to the last spike, I'd finally be back to what I paid for it. So do I start again?
Yes, and yes
Ivz go boom
Bad type of boom. 😭
OMG all the way back to...yesterday’s prices, how will we recover
Paperhands selling out of BPH just when it's on the march... - now back below last night's close.
>Paperhands selling out of BPH
high risk but could be high reward if gov has to reverse its decision.
NMT enjoying a jog in this nice weather
ASN giveth back some of what it taketh away yesterday, hope it holds this gain.
We back baby
Rattle on brother!
Well my portfolio went green today for the first time since last September 🥂
I managed to double bag IVZ and sell of a large amount this morning at 34c .. Feels nice to be a little less balls deep.
I’m now carrying 70,000 shares into the drill and all way through. I guess if it hits $7 dollars one day, I’ll get a lambo
>I managed to double bag IVZ
Same here man, also sold half my shares yesterday and carrying 70k into drill… was a tough choice to make given the potential, but feels good to be free carrying
Yeah it’s good when you feel comfortable with how much you may lose and you’ve banked some profit. Might have to buy some champagne tonight to celebrate the green 🥦
It is! Yeah still deep in Waka Waka so on to $1 ay haha
The frequency that IVZ is being mentioned scares me that it’s a pump. Glad you’re making / taking profit
I’m just glad I don’t hear “i LKE this stock” as much.
Little jog around the LKE?
Congrats on taking profits!
Yea i cant work this one out tbh
NMT getting pumped hard.
HVY sell side is thin as fuck. just need some volume leading into the scoping study to be released this/next week and it might finally get some movement
So is the buyer side
Most people have probably seen Macquarie's updated lithium forecast by now. If not, it's [here](https://twitter.com/LithiumIonBull/status/1560993946255478786/photo/1).
As always, it doesn't take sodium into account at all, so I'm not really interested in this kind of forecasting beyond 2023. The Chinese government recently forbid the use of NMC chemistries in energy storage systems, and I wouldn't rule out a similar situation where lithium gets totally banned from ESSs in China in a few years (sodium is safer & cheaper). Macquarie has a \~70ktpa LCE deficit in 2026, and Fastmarkets believes 50ktpa of that will be ESSs (globally, not just China), so it's a nebulous area.
Great to see AKE's run over the last 2 days, and looking forward to the other producers' figures.
PLS's current FY will be amazing, but I'm pretty dissatisfied with their use of capital: according to their own forecasts, they plan to have \~A$2bill in the bank by June 30 2023.
In absolute terms, I don't think a buyback is the best course of action, but under current conditions, I think it's up there. HC commentators mostly insist on growing the business over returning capital, but nobody ever explains how that might work in practice (P1000 not able to be done yet).
The supply chain will increasingly focus on carbon intensity, which is why I believe they should avoid any more deals that involve shipping ore, such as the one with Posco (despite financially being a fantastic JV). [Hydroxide is horrific compared to carbonate, btw](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/ghg-emissions-intensity-for-lithium-by-resource-type-and-processing-route).
So combining that with financials, here's why I think LCE in Australia is a terrible idea for PLS.
* US$6k/t spodumene price
* 7.5 tonnes of spodumene = 1 tonne hydroxide
* formula = 75% of market price
* auction = 115% of market price
* MIN assumed to get half profits with Ganfeng (I believe it's less)
* 1:1.4 (USD:AUD)
* hydroxide capex is isolated from beneficiation
||\*\*NPAT $AU\*\*|\*\*CAPEX $AU\*\*|
|75ktpa spodumene (formula)|$272m|-|
|75ktpa spodumene (market)|$375m|-|
|75ktpa spodumene (auction)|$437m|-|
|10ktpa hydroxide (100%)|$554m|$335m|
|10% hydroxide (tolled Ganfeng)|$453m|-|
The first thing you notice is that MIN's vertically integrated operation basically has the same profitability as PLS's auction product. MIN aren't locked into that agreement, but they'll need AU$1.3b & 3 years to go it alone.
It also appears to make sense at that price point for PLS to pursue their own hydroxide, until you see the same table at **US$3k/t**:
||\*\*NPAT $AU\*\*|\*\*CAPEX $AU\*\*|
|75ktpa spodumene (formula)|$116m|-|
|75ktpa spodumene (market)|$168m|-|
|75ktpa spodumene (auction)|$199m|-|
|10ktpa hydroxide (100%)|$239m|$335m|
|10% hydroxide (tolled Ganfeng)|$195m|-|
So PLS can spend 2 years constructing a hydroxide plant, 1 year qualifying it, then 8 years paying it back. Total waste of time, and it gets far worse at US$2k/t. Who even knows if hydroxide will be in demand in the 2030s?
[Overall, converter margins have been shot to pieces due to the BMX platform](https://twitter.com/PHmetals/status/1560584530280566784/photo/1).
So PLS want a solution that involves:
* processing on site
* chargeable off renewable electricity
* 80% less shipping loads
* rapid construction
* no qualification period/problems
If they meet those conditions, they can compete with conventional brines. That's where the Calix phosphate JV comes in.
Below is an *extremely speculative* SQM carbonate versus PLS phosphate comparison.
* US$25k/t carbonate price
* 8.5 tonnes of spodumene = 1 tonne carbonate
* 1:1.4 (USD:AUD)
* SQM = 75% of market price (50/50 battery technical grade)
* phosphate processing cost 50% of carbonate
* all methods yielding 90% recovery
* phosphate & carbonate contain same lithia content (confirmed)
||\*\*NPAT $AU\*\*|\*\*CAPEX $AU\*\*|
|SQM (Salar de Atacama)|$112m|$280m|
|PLS phosphate @ 80% of carb price|$108m|$150m|
|PLS phosphate @ 75% of carb price|$97m|$150m|
|PLS phosphate @ 70% of carb price|$86m|$150m|
|PLS phosphate @ 65% of carb price|$76m|$150m|
There are huge assumptions in there. I have no idea what's going to happen, but neither does anyone except the engineers involved. The point is that unless a 3rd party comes in with a great JV offer for PLS, they probably shouldn't lift a finger until the phosphate demo plant has provided comprehensive data.
I'm not that enthusiastic about the company passively sitting on $2b during that time, but hopefully they surprise me.
u/kookabara12 alerted me that Calix have [provided some info on the phosphate](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02557098-2A1392780?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4).
The pilot plant is the same size as AGY's stage 1 commercial plant, with the demo plant being 3ktpa (p.14). Apparently, the 3ktpa plant will cost $50-70m (p.21), which is roughly half that of an LCE plant.
They give a revenue figure of US$180m pa, which is equivalent to the market price of carbonate (p.21). I find that ridiculous, as despite containing the same amount of lithium, I can't accept that a salt precursor would fetch the same price as a qualified cathode material.
Final investment decision targets H1 2023 (p.21), but they only expect the demo plant to be fully operational by 2025 (p.14) unfortunately.
I assume one of the big challenges will be developing a market for it.
u/Mr_X2017 I'm not sure if you listened to the FY conference, but PLS has indicated that although labour is tight, it's actually fabrication delays being the primary issue for P1000. Maybe I misheard during the last conference, but it feels like that story has changed a little.
So, through your extensive research, would you say that pls is currently a buy or do you think to wait for a likely drop in lithium prices
Edit: I'm a retard so say in sped terminology
Because it's against the rules of the sub & ASIC, I can really only speak generally.
I'm not sure we'll be seeing a drop in lithium prices this year, but PLS is volatile as anything, so I guess you just need to monitor the global economic situation and see if some plunges on the S&P 500 or Europe end up sending our stocks down as well.
I don't typically invest in things that have just streaked up like PLS has, but it's all personal preference. I'm more hands on with my trading than others might be. I always monitor peers too, which for PLS are: AKE, IGO & MIN.
Ultimately this is where PLS willl either show themself to have the makings of a new mid-tier mining group in Australia, or whether they will be a TO target when some graduate drinks too much orange juice and forgets that commodities are cyclical in nature.
Look at a company like MIN between 2010 and 2017. They went up and down but ultimately never grew their business in any meaningul way until the commodity boom did it for them. PLS current success is just as much Lithium price as it is their own work.
To grow a business on cashflow rather than just commodity prices requires careful aquisition, vertical supply chain investment (both up and down), diversified investment and luck. Many a time BHP and RIO lost tens of billions on poorly timed aquisitions at the top of commodity cycles, especially RIO. Share buy backs are a last resort because it means the company sees no better use for its money, and does not see any **future** use for its money. Otherwise they will lend up re-printing the shares they just burnt esentially throwing money away. A dividend at least gives holders and funds the money to buy back in on a future raising.
Ultimately if PLS just resort to a buyback with so many commodities available for investment, I think personally thats a sign from them they aren't interested in expanding the business and probably just going to get taken over one day. That or they need to higher some proper market researchers and analysts to scope out projects, run some numbers and start buying up tenaments to develop with the cash. Just my thoughts.
Good comments, though see my reply to HeiPando for some additional thoughts.
Just to be clear: I don't see any near term growth prospects that exceed the phosphate, and the lessons from Greenbushes are a stark reminder that moving up the chain in theory is different from practice. And time-consuming.
I'd be fuming if PLS acquired projects at this stage of the cycle, and I think your own investigations turned up a dearth of potential flagship copper/graphite/etc projects. Generally speaking, diversification is a great idea, but probably harder to put into practice, especially for a company that is extremely stretched right now. I think even the resources possessed by MIN dwarf PLS.
Time is the enemy, and PLS is playing a waiting game on some technically challenging projects. A buyback would act as a reasonable catalyst in what would otherwise be a vacuum. I don't believe \~$300m would have any impact on their ability to capitalize on opportunities at all, but psychologically would do much for the SP. I'm happy with unfranked dividends as well.
I think saying "does not see any future use of its money" is too black & white.
For me, it's more like: "we have sufficient capital to meet our extremely promising 2-3 year ambitions, with no concrete plan for excess funds that might be put to better use by investors who are able to take advantage of CGT discounts, or other tax discounts to redistribute into better performing assets in the near term".
But to sweep all that aside, there's little PLS can do in 2 years to protect itself against the inevitable plunge of lithium prices. Given that I'm investing in a cycle, I can't imagine why anyone wouldn't want to maximize short term gains knowing that the capital gains will either totally stagnate, or markedly fall over the next few years.
PLS could position themself as a JV player. Offer to utilise that 300m to fund exploration or capex in return for a large equity stake in a junior. But it requires resources and human capital to do that PLS might not have.
For me a buyback typically does mean they don't see a future use for money. In terms of what you are saying if PLS have no plans to use money for the next 3 years then a buyback is good, especially if cashflow willl remain high over the period.
I think ANZ are a good example of doing a buyback, then doing an aquisition a few months later re-printing the shares and more just wasting money. I think buybacks in commodities are better when prices are low, they can buy-back more shares so maybe a div is better in this case? Who knows I don't even own em haha.
As an aside, do you see yourself continuing to invest in lithium after the boom subsides, or will you pivot to a new commoidity. (assuming you don't retire to an island or something like that)
I definitely agree with what you're saying on a conceptual level.
After some thought, I can articulate my strategy & realize that I'm not comfortable with diversification either:
I invest in PLS for exposure to a nimble, lithium exclusive operation with capital focused on unlocking value within that area of their expertise. I don't want them managing risk or exposure to other commodities on my behalf, so any excess capital should be returned to me to use as I see fit.
So I realize now that my initial post was way too specific to my philosophy and the criticism is justified.
The sort of things I'd expect them to accomplish if they had cash:
1. higher volumes
2. lower costs
3. moving downstream
4. decarbonization & various green initiatives to meet OEM requirements
5. diversification assuming suitable assets & personnel
**1 & 2:** $240m for P680 FY23 + $350m FY24?
**3:** Posco JV $0m required + Calix: $600m FY24 & $600m FY25
**4:** solar panels $10m + Calix
**5:** Not my preference
So from my perspective, everything obvious is covered, and then some. I'm worried about investment for the sake of it given that I'm trading it cyclically.
I think investments in early stage juniors is a a good idea at the right time, though right now there're no ASX listed companies that'd meet my personal criteria IMO (not already partnered, moderate MC paired with promising resource). Maybe one of the non-ASX Canadian hard rocks would though, such as the one Ken Brinsden has joined.
I can't shake the feeling that once I'm done with this lithium cycle, I'll migrate into insanely boring stocks and only do some temporary trading when the macro becomes a bit shambolic.
Do you have a multi year plan?
thats a very fair way of looking at multi-commodity diversification. Becoming something like OZL which are just a giant in one commoditiy is a good strategy. I think solar and higher volumes are brilliant, especially solar since it could offer them cheaper power and lower that cost.
I have a multi-year plan, I think over the last 5 months despite making a fraction of what some here made, I become risk averse and became a bit too obssessed with finding the best plays rather than just taking a gamble. But I think the idea is the same, play in the commodities space which Australia excels at, find companies aiming to reach a key milestone on an good long life asset and hold for 1-2 years while they make it happen.
While I do that I am trying to identify Australian stocks that are less cyclical and have more traditional growth pathways. A lot of agriculture and food stocks in Australia have been takenover so I've started there a long with doing reviews of banking, consumer essential and next up is industrials.
I did hear that yeah. So even more perplexed on why they aren't at least ordering the long lead items now. Also noted that the scale of the P1000 plant is relatively small compared to other WA projects (iron ore mine expansions) so have a larger pool of possible construction/engineering firms. So again no bottle neck there. Probably has something to do with the mine plan and waste removal they are doing which is far above my pay grade.
edit: was interesting they have re-negotiation clauses in offtakes that I believe they said can be exercised quarterly and/or half yearly. I'd have to re-listen to get the exact but it'd be nice if their contracts didn't lag so much.
Definitely frustrating, though they did allocate $50m to P1000 during the P680 upgrade.
I suspect Ganfeng's offtake has a large impact on price received. It's 160ktpa, and gets reset every 6 months ([p.2](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2995-01853416-6A819561?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)).
Actually I think GF is the only offtake that remains beyond 2024, so regardless of what happens with the phosphate, 840ktpa will be sold at market or auction rates from 2025.
Thanks mate I was going to ask you about the Li phosphate as I haven’t seen any pricing for that product. Irrespective it will provide substantial savings in shipping and give better ESG credibility to PLS.
I’m interested in your opinion on sodium batteries potentially disrupting the need for large amounts of lithium. I assume sodium is readily available and cheap so just need the tech to make sure it can function as well as lithium batteries, particularly with evs and the higher weight of sodium and lower energy density. I don’t doubt that these issues can’t be quickly overcome. However, a big delay in uptake could be how long it takes for large battery manufacturers pivoting to sodium noting that CATL is already looking at it quite closely. I guess in a long winded way I am asking, do you really feel like the lithium defect will be substantially reduced by 2024/25? Acknowledging you’ve always stated you’d be guessing after 2023.
Oh yeh and great post! I’m sure it sent a joyous quiver through at least 90k sub members!
A researcher from Nanjing university claimed that sodium can copy lithium batteries on a 3-5 year lag. I believe them, but let's give it closer to 5.
So though CATL will mass manufacture sodium batteries from next year, I guess I'll only be preparing for disruption to lithium from 2026 onwards. Others companies are doing it too, but obviously CATL makes 35% of batteries globally, so it's all about them.
In answer your question, I'm warming to the idea of high lithium prices in 2025, but I think the graphs showing crazy deficits beyond that are probably a bit wishful.
I don't expect lithium to become obsolete, just have more sane cycles.
Thanks Swyfty. I was thinking roughly of that timeline. The important thing for investors is that SP movement in Li stocks will happen before the disruption actually does and I would assume producers making good $ off the high prices will be less affected than the explorers when the big Indios decided they’ve made enough $. But who really knows will just take a bit of market manipulation either way from them to turn sentiment!
What's your day job Swifty, if you don't mind me asking?
With ASIC giving themselves the power to chase anyone who's expressed an opinion on any website ever, I hope you don't mind the vague answer of finance refugee^(1).
Please never check my trading history as an undergrad: might share some stories one day.
^(1) definitely not accounting: see my general garbling of terms & accounting concepts
Vague is perfectly fine Swifty, it's none of my business anyway. I was just curious about the man behind the comments - because your posts are so incredible.
Great writing as always just one question comes to mind.. Why doesn't PLS invest that 2 billion into African speccys and turn it into 1 billion?
yeah, I don't know why people are so fixated on PLS spending their money on hydroxide production, doesn't seem worth it
there's plenty of stuff they could do with their capital; buybacks like you said, acquisition/diversification into other relevant battery metals, further spend on minimising AISC numbers etc... and of course dividends to keep the boomers happy