By - AutoModerator
Cheers fella. Did that work?
This thread still being the top thread confused the fuck outta me
why are you still here Mr Thread? 🤰🏾
Anyone have a good guide for interpreting lithium drilling results? LPD has done a thing.
SYA fuck me you good thing
Wow it’s been on a wild ride. Looks like good support at these levels. Only way is up baby!
Where my LPD boys at
Bought at 0.4, holding until their plants and shit are built, if it still sucks I’ll take the loss haha.
Looking forward to getting closer back to break even today
ATH.ASX Me thinks big announcement on PBT2 to regain compliance may be in the works
Tesla’s Texas, Berlin factories ‘losing billions of dollars’
A shortage of batteries and China COVID curbs have left the EV maker struggling to ramp up production, Elon Musk said.
Sooo…we’re going to make money this week and all will be well, yeah?
I think we’ll draw our conclusion next Friday
The LKE story is interesting because, if a managing director or Ceo quits, do they absolve themselves from all fiduciary obligations? Ie they don’t need to inform shareholders or the asx of their reason or shares held/sold?
I think if they are no longer a director or a substantial shareholder then they don’t need to tell anyone squat.
However if they sold based on insider knowledge, then ASIC might like to have a word.
Pretty sure because he's not a employee anymore than he just moves to being a normal retail holder
As a noob, I had no idea, so went looking.
Here's a very recent example of a CEO quitting, no concrete info why, and on we go:
My understanding is that director shares are on the public record, and if any director of LKE sold, you're going to know about it fast:
It's a great question.
Steve was no longer a director when he sold, hence the question
Every week for the past 3 weeks my weekly losses have been approximately halving. 9k to 5k to 2300. Logically this week should be grey or slightly green!
The more you lose the less you lose
Is that a bullish sign?
You'll never guess how Livewire is describing this sub in comparison to Ausfinance:
*"The other group, however, has an investment strategy that is very hard to describe without using the words 'abject gambling."*
Also, has anyone ever heard of a "De-Ramper"?...
I love how no one working in journalism these days is capable of objectively observing anything, they just write articles about what their friend told them.
I like how they call asx_bets properly, only to go to r/asxbets 🤡
It's got a very high school captain delivers report feel to it, for sure.
Heh - I'll confess to calling [Joe's comments unramping](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/vksdjd/comment/ids79q0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
How are they going to describe us a gamblers and not HC though. The standard here that most people put into DD posts here is leagues ahead of anything that comes out of HC.
How have they not included r/ausstocks and r/fiaustralia. Don't get me started on r/crypto_betsAU 💀
Literally no one says deramper.
Edit: and don't even start me on the zero mentions of our meme culture. 1v1 BigJim ya mutt
The standard for Australian journalism is so fucking low jfc.
Here's a sneak peek of /r/ausstocks using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/ausstocks/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year!
\#1: [My Evergrande Analysis](https://np.reddit.com/r/ausstocks/comments/pxpf31/my_evergrande_analysis/)
\#2: [How To DD A Stock- Beginners Guide](https://np.reddit.com/r/ausstocks/comments/pi44a5/how_to_dd_a_stock_beginners_guide/)
\#3: [I made my first $3 today :)](https://www.reddit.com/gallery/qlre41) | [43 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/ausstocks/comments/qlre41/i_made_my_first_3_today/)
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HC: Buy one stock and dedicate your life to it no matter how shit it turns out to be
Ahhh so thats how they arrive at the crack pipe to smoke all that copium.
Have you ever checked out the hot chili forum? No less dedicated, but in their own style they all smoke weed and chill with each other.
I visit the SMN one occassionally. Just for a lol. Occassionaly a troll comes and visits called Jardine, gets banned and reincarnates himself as another alias.
I can't for the life of me work out what the stock is about. But the holders are dedicated even though they know its completely shit.
Right now there's an argument about macca42 and his nasty tone.
The POS forum is also a treat with ole Tomboy.
Who are all these people that hang out on these boards? Are they off-grid doomsday preppers just looking for some like-minded shitco investors? I just don't know!
They ain't wrong though
Calls on Super Dry. What a great beer. Any bears on super dry can suck my pussy lips.
Great Northern is one of the only
Worse beers than superdry. 4X is absolutely dreadful too
Great Northern was a war crime on my taste buds. Horrendous.
Super Dry... Jesus wept.
So many great Australian beers to choose from, why would anyone drink that cats piss
The John Smith of beers
Super dry is like having sex in a canoe... fucking close to water.
Nice one mate haven't heard that before 👵👵👵
Puts on super dry. Awful beer. Wouldn't give it to my worst enemy
I hate you CUNT
Have a Snickers with your flavourless watery beer
PSA: Snickers still made in China.
[1000km batteries coming](https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/24/catl-qilin-battery-with-1000-km-range-coming-in-2023/)
PSA: If you're still in obscure high yield cryptos, or even have money on those platforms, be aware that the bailout packages being prepared by lenders are putting said lenders in line to receive any remaining assets **before depositors** in a liquidation.
The risks are real and you should be careful out there.
Fuck crypto. Is scam dream
Personally I find it incredibly hard to believe that we've found the absolute bottom. The bounce on Friday and probably Monday + X feels like a releif rally. Most broker analysts (yeah I know) that I read tend to support this. I would say that there is definitely some short term plays to be made in the next few weeks, but ultimately we will still continue to trend down until August.
Not financial advice, im clinically retarded.
4 days left this FY. June 30 could be a rough trading day.
I was thinking the other day, the whole 'sell in May....' quote is real. End of April, and all through May and June, Stonks have been going down.... One week left of the financial year and some stonks (possibly stocks that look promising for the next 12 months) start seeing a good rise on no news. Because if bought now you can sell with reduced Cgt this time next year. Right before tax time. So if you've confident wait til the last 2 weeks of June to buy and sell after 366 days but before June 30.
A year long bet instead of trading daily but next year I'll try this and see if it works.
The economy has barely begun to feel the effects of low interest rates. We’ll see how money losing companies fare when credit streams dry up, and there are meaningful effects on unemployment rates
[This is a bear market rally, not the bottom](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJH1ciIZP-0)
I was reading a few things about some expecting inflation to ease a lot quicker that expected. Remember you dont need to time the bottom, you just need to not buy toward to the top. Do we think its gonna go another 25% down?
With the selling we saw recently in an already deflated market i could see many people figuring this is a fine time to get in and if it drops a little more, its not the end of the world.
Im buying 25% each in July, August, September and October.
The only way we are bottomed is if it is (all together now!) priced in.
Imagine the asx is one collective hive mind, youd think it would have seen all the current and upcoming rate hikes, inflation, macro economic factors etc, over the last month and have priced it all in till the end of the year. That fear in the asx. You'd think so.... But all of this would have been known at the start of the year anyway and the recent reaction was almost a surprise and very reactive!
I don't even know anymore. But taking the information we have at face value it seems to be likely we will drop more.
.............priced in...........ah shit my timing was out. My bad.
No one really knows when the absolute bottom is until it’s already happened and we are nearing the top…
I'm expecting that feb 20 2020 onward pandemic drop, although this time it's a bit more frog in water where the temperature increases.
Literally everyone knew we were in a bull run up until recently.
Down trend will last longer, October or till the next year or whenever Russia Ukraine thing is over.
Which broker analysts do you read regularly? I’m interested in expanding my reading list.
Morgans mostly, mainly because I know 2 blokes that work there. Definitely take with a grain of salt though.
Day 369 on waiting for my terrace to be built
your sacrifice will be remembered throughout history.
If you have an understanding about Gold stocks, i would love your commentary on this [SXG DD post i just made.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/vkixb9/asxsxg_dd_victorias_new_gold_rush/)
Otherwise, feel free to check it out anyway!
....and that's [the fruits of my Saturday night](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/vkhoks/lke_and_how_to_handle_the_departure_of_a_ceo/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) \- enjoy
I met some randos off ASX_BETS and I still have both my kidneys!
I got to hug BigJimBeef and didn't get my wallet stolen!
You did but there was fuck all in it.
Sounds like you accidentally stole my portfolio instead then.
What's happened to the DD around here, I miss it, I haven't seen any in so long. Taco gone, yothu unmotivated I think, catch the knife dude gone. 😢😢😢
I wrote two.
I dogged one stock, which then doubled in price
Felt positive on the 2nd, it's now 1/3rd of the price
It's gonna take people more smart than me's
Its a difficult skillset to achieve, to be analytical enough to have meaningful insight, and expressive enough to be able to share it in an effective way.
Much respect to the few who achieve it.
Agreed, I know it's difficult I just miss it
When AISC came out warning finfluencer people everyone got scared. It may feel like there is no need to worry or it'll never happen or say our published DD is not covered but a lot harder for those that go to all effort for unpaid indepth work only to be hit by something that can impact their IRL job and life. Risk/reward feels off without protections and I know the mods did a lot to try to calm fears but for myself and I guess others its not really enough. I wanted to start my own series styled on catching the knife but working through the ASX200 since a lot of the ASX analyst reports are garb. Never puublished after that stuff
Also according to market index there are roughly 2400 companies on the ASX and 92,000 people on the sub. With at least 200-1000 messages on the daily there has to be people who know the the "interesting" small-mid caps in biotech, tech and each sector and mention i the daily from time to time. Just depends whether they explore lithium or not if it gets another mention.
End of the day the good DD posters make their money whether they share or not and eventually move on. There are obviously a lot of very smart and profitable people here but perceived risk is high, incentive is low with the only benefits coming down to reddit offering the ultaimte rapid peer review of an investment thesis in like 24hrs as thousands of people look at your numbers and sentiment to see whether it stacks up.
>When AISC came out warning finfluencer people everyone got scared. It may feel like there is no need to worry or it'll never happen or say our published DD is not covered but a lot harder for those that go to all effort for unpaid indepth work only **to be hit by something that can impact their IRL job and life**.
Noob here - who has ASIC been chasing for merely publishing DD?
Here's one of the ASIC chunks of info re: finfluencers:
This is my noob understanding:
Nowhere are they saying that it's a problem to publish research and opinion on a company that is not paid for by the company, which is exactly what you should be doing here.
If there were someone here who was publishing DD, was paid for by and pumping the company without making that public knowledge ie: you know exactly what you're doing, and that what you're doing is not legal - that's when the shit goes down bigtime.
I think it's great to publish DD and have [someone else poke giant holes in it - that's how you learn.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/vjdypy/the_bull_case_for_asxx2m/)
Yeah we havn't seen AISCC come after people doing DD on reddit but its a very murky water and one that a lot of people aren't willing to tread. The laws around financial advice are murky. Realistically the sub would need wither a laywer or an AISC rep to come in and basically detail what is and isn't.
Because the laws are pretty long and it could be as simple as publishing a post on a financial subreddit with the intention to bring interest and awarness of a stock consititues providing a form of financial advice even if you only list the facts of the company. Maybe the sub needs to crowdfund an AMA with a legal council lol.
Yeah that makes sense, still think it's dumb that that fear even exists because of ASIC but it's definitely risky even though noone would ever take stuff as financial advice here or ever report something as being I would think... but yeah I get a decent amount of DD from the daily but I did love reading essays on some speccies
is there a particular fave DD essay you can point us noobs to?
Search the sub via the [DD flair](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/new/?f=flair_name%3A%22DD%22).
Thanks - will do, but thought that Bretto, being a finger counter and all, might have some particular insight into the Good Stuff when it comes to DD.
Write some Bretto. Be the change you want to see in the world.
Mate I can't even win a poker game, you think I can write an essay?...
fyi, I was listening to the podcast with Harley Grosser "[Trawling For Ten Baggers](https://www.trawlingfortenbaggers.com/)" where he talks about his DD in episode 16, and how he used to write huge 30 page chunks of research before investing in a company. That DD he did got him started in industry - here's an interview with [alan kohler where he talks about what he looks for in a company](https://www.eurekareport.com.au/investment-news/capital-h-management-finding-value-in-small-caps/147501) which you might dig.
How to write one? writing essay always reminds me of taking English final exam. A Nightmare…
u/yothuyindi has you sorted there with a guide:
[Lithium stock drop since 4th April](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/vkcd77/drop_in_a_bunch_of_random_lithium_stocks_since/) (if anyone else is not doing much on a Sat night and wants a look !)
no zip. nothing. nada. just stay the everliving fuck away.
zip = access to nothing and no one.
I think my mortgage broker asked for this, im like wtf no.
Never ever give out your password to stuff like that. They won't give a damn if you get your credit score ruined and money stolen from a bank that isn't them. If they get hacked you could be in for a world of badluck and if they sell that data they won't care since its not their account.
If they need your password they are asking for direct access to your account which they should never ever need. Especially NEVER give out your email password because people can use that to send reset password emails for other accounts and screw you over more ways than the ASX. Honestly it sounds more like a scam to me.
Yeah normalising asking for passwords to other services is awful.
I hold them partly responsible for every little old lady that gets scammed, because you can't just say "never give out your password" anymore because of fintech fuckwits thinking their *frictionless flows* 🤙 are more important.
Looking at you u/sharesight. I get it but it sucks.
Quick maffs - P/E of ASX200
* 17.0x equal weighted
* 12.4x mkt cap weighted
What's the avg Nev?
Average historically? About 15x (mkt cap weighted).
When the covid recovery started, was there a subsection of this subreddit calling 'bull trap' all the way up?
I'm not declaring the bear market over, but fuck I'd be shitty if I missed out on heavy recovery gains while trying to swing trade it.
"All the way up" sure is a hell of a long way, that's for the most staunch of bears. But certainly for a period it was pretty mainstream to toy with BBUS and BBOZ.
I did for a bit but eventually JPow was machine gunning down such tomfoolery with his printer and bull mania took over. The range of stocks and sectors you could throw your money at and see some growth was too obvious and great for most to stay bears for too long.
Oh yeah, the bears took months to give in after covid.
Between here and WSB, whenever you saw a wall of text essay in a post or comment you just knew it was someone trying to justify another leg down. They were incredibly tenacious.
The 🌈 just grabs some people. They think the natural direction probably *should* be down anyway (probably a natural negativity/pessimism slant) but then in a crisis some get hooked and they can't be satisfied because the further it falls, the worse it seems and the worse it seems the further it should fall.^1
The whole way back up they're in disbelief at how the world could be so fucked and the market be recovering/running, but confident that it's only a matter of time until they're proven right etc.
^1 the opposite happens to bulls during blow-off tops. Up means good and good should mean up short circuit
The long term market trend is always up. It's hardly a surprise given increased population leads to an increase in consumption of products and services.
Corrections will always occur, and the bears will remind us, but generally bulls get to bask in the sun more often if we go by past history.
I wasn't here back then, but my guess would be yes because nobody is ever right and nobody can predict the future. I can definitely see people calling bull trap and the virus is still here and only getting worse etc etc (referring to back then).
I'm not declaring the bear market over either, but I'm glad to say that I started buying back positions last week at the lows (to be fair I only sold the week prior because I felt there was more downward pressure to come). So my benefit was only minimal (I wish I Sold ages ago, as I lost all my gains which were quite substantial gains for me).
On Friday I pulled the trigger even though it was a green day to buy back fully because I predict a July rally at the end of tax season selling. Not sure how long it will last but the DOW closed 800 points up and futures are still up 800 points. Bear market rallies are usually very strong so it's worth being in when it happens.
As for the future, I really don't know. Back in the covid days, stimulus pumped the markets, aswell as lowering interest rates. That action is what caused this new problem, inflation. So they only have minimal 'tools' to deploy to fight it. Stimulus or rate cuts would work against fighting inflation so it's a tricky situation. The world doesn't need Stimulus anyway, but maybe if they back down on the rate rises it can help turn the markets around, or If the supply side is fixed, then they won't need to suppress the demand side. For that i think if the situation with Russia calms / sanctions removed it may help with supply side. Also china coming out of lockdown etc.
Most analysts say to keep your trades tight during this kind of market (lock in gains and use stop losses). With that you'll minimise risk but also minimise gains/losses. I'm really not sure. Looking forward to next week though 🤙
Absolutely on the money Suge - nicely put
Did I miss the bottom?
Just work hard make more money for time to come. I won’t buy the dip until Russia thing is over.
Not for another 6 months to 2 years
I’m not looking forward to Monday since my BBUS will get pounded, but I’m so convinced last week was a dead cat bounce I’m changing from BBUS to SNAS. There’s no way Tesla should still be gaining value in these markets 🌈🐻
Remind me what is BBUS and SNAS again? Inverse ETFs?
Be careful, bear market rallies can be quite strong
Bear market rallies are significant counter-trend recoveries in stock prices that can last as little as a few days or as long as months before the market reverses to new lows.
Thanks Suge, I’ll take the advice. It was tough being pounded by the rally for a week straight with the leverage
Have to agree the bear can't rest for good until Tesla and/or Elon break
Worked until 10 last night and just finishing a 5:30-3:30 shift.
Tired? Who, me?
Well since we doing this... Haven't been working for 3 months now (moved from Aus to NZ ,I know I'm a fucking retard) going to the gym most days , hikes and runs... Kids are in daycare and I'm finally feeling fucking amazing... My stonk gainz from the last couple years will run out but fuck it in living my best life at the moment... Was pretty burnt out from the last 3 years
U in Queenstown then mate
I wish!!! Mount Maunganui, it's a nice spot
You have successfully escaped the rat race, congrats! This should be the life everyone deserves, not a 9-5 day by day.
Thanks, but it's only enough to keep us going for about a year... I will have to re-enter the race at some stage. But it's worth it
Congrats man, fucking love hearing things like this.
Ok don’t want to start a dick measuring contest, BUT, baby has been in hospital with RSV for the last four days. I’m so tired I feel like I’ve been dosed with mushrooms because shit literally starts moving when I stare at it for too long. Came home today to our 2 and 13 year old who seem to have gotten even more demanding in my absence.
If you don’t love being tired, don’t have kids. Honestly these little bastards will be the end of me.
>If you don’t love being tired, don’t have kids.
damned in you do, damned if you don't.
internally, I'm all "damn fucking straight, no children", but one must sometimes tamp down unsocial autist tendencies in polite circles...
"I just thought it best to let others have all the fun".
Kids are horrible mine give me something from daycare every week
My kid had it this week too but luckily was relatively mild. Wishing yours a speedy recovery 🙏
RSV everywhere at the moment, horrible hope you're baby is getting better. And kids... Shit nothing will age you and rip those precious sleeping hours like kids... Little soul vampires, but we love you guys 😊
Yeah they’re actually the best.
I did a 16hr work yesterday. 8-4pm as an officer worker, 4.30pm to 2am as a bar tender.
Did you add chilly into my mojito?
Last week I did a few shifts 8pm till 3am and then looked after a 4 year old from 8am till 5pm.
I was physically and mentally fucked.
Stack those dolla dolla Bills yo
Man, at the risk of sounding close to antiwork: I'm vibin' this atm.
I'm near 30. Single. I'm tired man. Really tired. Back-in-the-shrinks-office tired. My job has me working huge hours, pretty high stress, physically and mentally exhausted to the point I'll sleep most of the weekend away. Let alone throw a partner/kids in there (or a personal life, or the gym)! I'm just trying to afford my own fuckin' house at some point in my lifetime.
My hat is off to you, Jim. Well and truly off!
Source: currently contemplating life decisions and looking at new career paths/jobs.
Look after yourself, asx_bets team. GLTAH NFA DYOR
My life has been rich in adventure but poor in cash.
I was lucky enough to land on my feet though. Got a house and family and car.
3 things I thought I'd never have
I need to take a page out of that book, I think.
I'm very prone to staying in my lane, working for the man, and expiring.
Need stocks to moon so I can go adventure. Someone tell Tom.
Edit: also congrats on the 3 things, man! Super stoked that found its way into your life!
What's your job mate
Environmental consulting. Shit ages you.
Yeah dude. It fell into my lap
But please stop jizzing on Melbourne(?).
I'll stop when I see no vomit anymore
Harsh. But yeah I’m
Saving my big Maccas money
If you can find work that pays better than minimum wage I'd do my best to take it. Easier said then done!
Isn't that what we're trying to achieve with our investing???
I'm here to fuck memes and chew bubblegum and i jizzed in an alley in the CBD.
Atleast you're not chewing memes and fucking bubblegum!
I know right
Where I’m at now, it’s good enough.
This is the attitude i need to adopt. Whatever i have it just isnt enough. And i cant even put a finger on what WILL be.
Years ago I had two jobs on the go, I did a double shift during the day at a carpet factory, followed by a night shift at woolworths, then another shift at the carpet factory again the next day. I only really had enough time for meals between shifts.
I can confirm the Simpsons episode where Apu doesn't sleep and is buzzing around the Kwik-E-Mart because he thought he was a bee is not far from the truth.
Can’t believe they got rid of Apu. He was the best character. What cunts! cancel culture can fuck right off
Fuck me, Melbourne, I just paid $16 for a pint of stone and wood.
At this price I was expecting a handjob and 1000 shares of ZIP.
What do you need stone for.
Yer.. he should have got at least 8000 shares in zip
I'd piss in the corner in protest but my mate is working here.
Also i'm not a cunt .
Also it's got a nice view
Let's call out some broker bulls on boomer stocks (I shall call them BOBS).
The idea here is that you need to take your bias out, no lambos here. just perhaps some safer 2 year bets to beat inflation, and that ING savings maximiser rate with less risk.
What's defensive. Let's start with Entertainment.
* NINE Entertainment: **NEC (friday close $1.86)**
* JP Morgan has 12month target at $3.50. UBS has $3.90
* \- Let's take out the bias of "no-one watches nine" and just look at the numbers. What are these brokers seeing? Rev growth rate from 21 to 24 at 6.2%pa, , EPS at 11.8%pa. PE 9.4X (on 23 EPS of $0.20)
* Collins Food Group: **CKF (friday close $8.76)**
* UBS has them at $9.75 12 month target, others have them at 10.
* Rev growth from '21 to '24 - 10%pa, EPS at 14%pa. PE 17X on 23 EPS of 0.5. Payout ratio 48.6%. - plenty of earnings in cash flow to fund growth, buy backs or dividends.
* They are cheap likely because the market is aware of the inflation pressures they will be experiencing... but they're trading at a discount versus other chain companies (eg McD) elsewhere. At this price it could be a good long term bet (2-4 years).
Only my 2 cents, do all your own research, just staying some info for you all to debate and shit on me with.
>just perhaps some safer 2 year bets to beat inflation, and that ING savings maximiser rate with less risk.
nine = in debt, and you're right - no one watches channel nine. autist here without a tv since...2007.
The concept of a "safe 2 year bet" is a tad beyond me, because that would not be my aim with anything learnt from this sub.
I personally thought that PLS would be a relatively safe lithium stonk, but I've quickly learnt that I'm an autist noob idiot.
My take = safe 2 years = not bets, but the bank, and that's not beating inflation. Inflation you beat over a longer period of time with an ETF. Autists might like to consider adding the LIT etf to their arsenal of more conservative stock choices if they're happy to trade on the us stockmarket via IBKR (due to low fees).
If I buy CKF can I get free KFC as shareholder benefit?
I feel like this is a way to sell the stock to this sub.
Forget the fundamentals, PE etc. Just start saying it's a **TT stock** (True Tendie Stock)
Can I invest in lettuce also?
Well, that's the argument for this stock. Despite inflationary pressures, many alternative food stocks still look a bit expensive. This one actually looks a little cheaper right now.
most of my portfolio is 'boomer' compared to this sub
added MTS last week, very boring but exposure to groceries/alcohol & feels less overpriced than COL and WOW 🤷♂️
Food will be a safe one for sure. The world needs to eat, and a food producer will soon get to name their price.
television entertainment is a bit like a newsagent shop. People are getting along fine without them. Investing in television stations will be gone in ten years.
Remember NEC isn't just TV, it's publishing as well. SMH, Fin Review, Age - they are all doing reasonably ok with subs and advertising (as much as we might not want to believe it). Their total digital sub revenue grew by 20% in 2021 to 100mill. That surprised me.
SVOD/BVOD - well, Stan is doing ok. Their entry into live sport has been reasonably good. I don't think Stan is going anywhere (again as much as you and I probably thinks it sucks).
... we have to disconnect the thought of Nine = the free to air tv network only. Hence my thought of doing this weekly, removing the bias of what we think of with a stock.
Agree with the last statement, TV is dead.
When shit like gogglebox is pulling in viewers its a sign of the end times.
I mentioned to the other commenter. NEC = digital publishing (Age, SMH, FinReview), plus Stan.
My argument with my original post is.. yes, when you and I think of "nine" we think, what a dog stock tv sucks. So what is it in the fundamentals that brokers see over the next 12-24 months. The reality is that despite FTA tv ad revenue flattening off, subs for digital publishing are increasing. and subs for Stan are also doing ok. That's growth, whether we like it or not. Will it continue? is there a natural saturation point for subs?
I genuinely see it as a dying sector as a whole. Yes i agree with subscription services taking over, but not by enough to cover the loss of ad revenue when you have youtube and the likes for free. If something is on the internet someone will always find a way to get it for free. This is doubly true if shit takes the route that foxtel did in the past where it was "no ads!" and now its just a fuckload of ads between shows. As anecdotal evidence, if i was unable to have shared services, i wouldn't be paying at all. I also note that i am probably not in the majority when it comes to this sentiment because somehow reality tv is still a thing, so people must be watching it.
Not gonna feel guilty about tonight's careless spending now that I've seen US markets and ASX futures
I was thinking the same lol.. I actually bought the wifey a new winter coat off the back of this logic. Her BF is jealous of my confidence
Keep the tags on and receipt handy might have to return it by Tuesday ;)
You know when you see people talk here talk about the 1 in a 1000 good hotcopper post which actually conveys something useful. I've stumbled across someone using satellite software I hadn't seen before - they were using it to snoop on [AKE's brine operations in South America - HC thread if curious](https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/view-from-space.6470450/page-3).
You just have to know the geolocation for where you want to snoop, the only limitation is cloud cover. [Here's the website defaulted to look at Kalgoorlie](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=10&lat=41.9&lng=12.5&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&toTime=2022-06-25T03%3A00%3A32.911Z). It has some interesting features like short-wave infrared, and possibly some variation on ASTER images (almost a surface geochemistry result) - might be useful for snooping. The data looks like its captured every 5 days. It is slow to load because of the scale of data its working with, but I've done some basic snooping:
Here's [Mt Marion lithium mine - MIN](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=-31.08276&lng=121.45188&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-06-04T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-06-04T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22). You can see they're drilling to the north and south of their current pits.
Here's [Buldania; the excessive drilling on the right is LTR; the spaced out drilling on the left is MIN/TUL/PNR](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=-32.06474&lng=122.08948&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-06-21T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-06-21T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_TONEMAPPED_NATURAL_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22).
Here's [Covalent's/Wesfarmers Earl Grey - used to be KDR's](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=-32.09932&lng=119.7581&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-05-25T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-05-25T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22)
Here's [CXO's Finniss Project - coming along quite nicely](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-12.67463&lng=130.77413&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-06-18T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-06-18T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22).
Here's [PLS's Pilgangoora on the right, and I believe MIN's Wodgina on the lower left](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=12&lat=-21.10196&lng=118.74916&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-06-20T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-06-20T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22).
Thabks for sharing, best Josh.
Price at posting (of those AKE images) **$12.47**
.. this is fascinating stuff though. Great find mate.
u/AntiCGT heres [Mt Cattlin](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=-33.5649&lng=120.03109&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-06-24T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-06-24T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=1.6&gamma=1.1&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22), however resolution doesn't appear to be as good when zoomed in, I can't see where their extensional drilling has been, possibly in the bushland to the east? Normally its quite obvious where the drillpad is created. The Mt Marion ones stick out like dog's balls.
Will look for similar website/ try to dig up old drill plans and have a look.
> every ASX company should have the right to allow shorting or not within its stock
> tick a box yes or no
> where is the honest fairness of me buying a stock to see it appreciate in value only to see a large identity to allow others to make money for it to depreciate
> I find it disgusting, totally crooked and immoral
I couldn't make this shit up if I tried. Tick a box to allow shorting lmfao 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
Stocks should only be allowed to go up!!! I need this certainty because I'm not very smart!
Stock are allowed to go up???? News to me
[(Book)dystopia: How Australia’s biggest bookseller went from hero to villain](https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/book-dystopia-how-australia-s-biggest-bookseller-went-from-hero-to-villain-20220622-p5avta.html)
No one could have predicted this for BKG
When things like BKG and STP started IPO'ing, that should have been triggering something in my monkey brain.
And the BKG CEO stepping down after 18 years, just after IPO, and "reluctantly" selling $6M of shares during the process, then a business downgrade comes. It gets better, the CEO Nash had filed for bankruptcy previously.
Yeah looking back, BKG top was Sept 21, two months before the big risk-off started Nov 21. Would have been a good early signal if I was smart enough. I mean I knew BKG was a stupid investment, but didn’t take notice of wider signal
Reddit dark mode is so cool
It would be a real shame if bears r fuk. A real shame. 🥲
These relief rallies are gifts if you have dogs you been wanting to exit
Bers r fuk in the short term. JP Morgan are forecasting an up to 7% surge in the S&P 500 as the calendar moves from June to July.
Because I purchased an inverse ETF too late in the piece, bulls are being rewarded.
I'm still not buying a dip, but might switch the inverse leveraged to a non inversed leverage.
> I purchased an inverse ETF too late in the piece
Oh, I still don't reckon the bottom is in. I just missed the most recent drops (waiting for international trading account to be set up to get what I wanted took a week...).
I think we're having a wee bear market rally before further drops to the [next leg down](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/up9nxf/slow_cooked_tendies/i8k7e0f/?context=3).
Rereading our conversation from my link, what we were both talking about was Soros's *reflexivity*, which is the phenomenon of pricing in imperfect information.
[Here](https://trustbutverifyit.substack.com/p/why-reflexivity-matters?s=r) is a slightly-too-academic article from earlier this month which tries to cover it.
Alright, back and digested. I really like this article.
I wrote a long post in response and then removed much of it, as there's so much to unpack conceptually, but overall a far more satisfying conception of market behaviour than the vacuum of rational actors and rational markets that economists hide behind.
Almost philosophical, and certainly psychological in its bent, which makes sense because market behaviour is not and never will be a hard science.
You might like The Money Game. He was probably the first to write about the market as something emotional and flawed.
Great book, highly recommend both it and the sequel (Supermoney)
Thanks for the recommendation - I'll definitely give it a look in. I really like what I've read of Soros so far.
Oh sorry yeah the money game isn't Soros (although it is from that time and he may be one of the characters). I went on a bit of a tangent without fully explaining myself
Yep, just saw that as I stumble through Amazon books. Adam Smith for the Money Game and Supermoney.
Have you by any chance read Soros' Alchemy of Finance?
Looks like I've got a bit on my reading list.
It's an interesting article - I reckon I need to give it a proper read when I'm feeling fresh as there's a bit of complexity to it, but quite like the psychological bent of it
I'm not a financial panther and in my field negatives cancel out...so is a non inverse leveraged just a leveraged?
Yep. Rather than gaining from market drops using an inverse leveraged 2x, it would be gaining from market increases leveraged 2x.
What does everyone use to get past paywall for articles? I am too r-tarded to work this out, thanks