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today was the greenest day I've had in a very long time, sadly I ran out of capital to buy these dips like 6 months ago. I don't care as long as they just recover
Well that was a right, royal fisting today
SYR you fucking dog, cheeky 5% drop yesterday pre-announcement , another 9.8% down today on announcement. An NPV range of $500m doesn’t give huge confidence
Yes, very ugly.
However, excellent margins on material processed in the USA and the outlook for Graphite is more bullish than lithium in the medium term.
Demand for anodes grew by 46% in 2022, compared to a 14% growth in supply for flake graphite. (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence) and analysts expect demand for Graphite flake to exceed supply over the next decade.
I am hoping we see a deficit in the latter half of 2023 onwards. The Chinese are manipulating the market as they are known to do, but it will come to bite them as it hampers new supply coming online.
Tried to average down one of my dogs. Partially executed order… 15 shares at $0.345. Average unit cost increases. 🤦♂️
Don’t forget brokerage fees
That’s why it increased.
Even for transient orders, I set an expiry of months to avoid exactly this situation - bask in my cleveredness, if you will
Bit of a sell off on PMT, was thinking of buying some to flip but didn't pull the trigger. Have done it successfully previously but decided id try my luck on a PLS trade instead (i keep some money aside to try some swing trades from time to time - that's called *diversification*).
By the way we're approaching May and the usual 'sell in May and go Away'. Keep it in mind and plan ahead. Based on the stocks i was following (lithium) last year the decline began in April (after a nice April rally) and bottomed out around June-July. Keep it in mind when/if backing up your truck.
Some examples (but i cant remember if there were any other external factors that contributed to this):
LTR: april high 1.95 - bottom in July 0.95
GL1: april high 2.46 - bottom in July 1.03
PLS: april high 3.46 - bottom in July 2.10
My memory is farkked so i cant remember when GS unleashed their FUD
I was planning to be out of any long positions by now but i find myself still in AZS. Hoping for one more pump because im a greedy bastard (never a good thing *"pigs get slaughtered"* I am a pig) - then ill probably sit out and wait for June-July before taking any new long positions - unless i come across a good trading opportunity etc. That's my plan anyway so we'll see how it goes. (shit rarely goes to plan)
Also not sure how a rising lithium price (if it does start rising) will affect this and whether that can counter the yearly June-July sell off (probably not - but might lessen the severity?)
From memory roughly April 5th/6th was the peak stock price for many or most Li explorers last year but was due to the sudden combination of two strong macro factors being the Li price peaking and then falling in combination with the large dump in equities globally due to inflation and rates.
I don’t see either of these two factors playing out in 2023, if anything Li prices may be bottoming and now rising while inflation (at least for now), is on a downward trajectory.
Late May early June was peak GS
April rally? All I've been doing all month is losing 2 - 3% pretty much every single day.
They also said the Christmas rally was real and it didn’t happen in dec last yeah. Jan ripped hard though
PLS has been edging all day...
I'm edging rn
I’ll take RNU finishing up grey as a win. These days, you just have to be glass half full.
Works for me 👍
So is anyone actually making any money at the moment? Seems like it's just one red day after another.
Not this week but I'm up 19% over the 12 mths. Nice early pickups on TLG (35%) and A4N (38%) rode out the bumps.
Feels like every investment decision I have made since January has been the wrong one. I have companies which I bought only to see them drop 25% within 2 weeks and hit my stop loss, kicking me out. No where to hide and it will probably get worse until July with insane tax selling coming up. Hell of a ride.
Topping up ASM - timed to perfection 🧐
\+1.46% on a red day - I hope that still means I get to be part of the GFM tomorrow
A bit over this boring ASX, so much so that I only check my portfolio every 6 mins now rather than the usual 5 mins.
QPM at one stage was like a wet dog who had run through the house and left mud everywhere. Straight out the back and put away into hiding. Seems to have cleaned himself up recently, might let him back inside
Just noticed VAL today, why?
PLS with that later arvo recovery
Where can we check the latest update on how much a company has shares on issue?
I use yahoo finance app. You gotta click on - show all key statistics.
[Lithium prices have bottomed.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/1309eb0/lithium_price_bottom/) 🍑
Guys literally want one thing and it’s fucking disgusting
600,000 CNY/T 💦💦💦
threw my remaining cash at PLS for tomorrow, let's see how it plays out
you have cash left?
a dog came BaRKing yesterday and I put it down and salvaged some meat
Picking the bones
When does PLS finish cooking their books, is that after close?
Dunno, I was expecting it released this morning 🤷♂️
After close it is.
six six six...
seven seven seven...
MAY is like a turbo car today it lagged at the start but now it's taking off
that is the dumbest analogy
Have you driven a turbo?
MAY is like water on dirt that turned into mud and is now going higher
MAY is like the swamp gas and cow farts that smelled like shit initially but are now powering SpaceX rocket engines after being compressed into a liquid and stored at cryogenic temperatures?
MAY today is like me waking up hungover and then getting on the gear
It’s rare seeing AKE green when PLS & Co. are all red
Oversold the day before I guess.
Share buy back affecting it?
Jesus, much more of this and I'll have to skulk down to corridor and hang out with Ausfinance people instead. Then I can learn to reuse old toenail clippings as cheap pillow stuffings or whatever they do there.
Ausfinance: If you jizz into the frypan and get your protein that way you can save a lot of money on eggs
Been in indo for a couple weeks and turns out reddit doesn’t work there ?
What did I miss cucks. Probably the same shit different smell ey.
You missed the great bukkake race. Shhh, guys, don't tell him about it.
CNJO (options) appeared on my portfolio today, yes took it up. In hindsight, I should have waited till today and bought em at the ridiculous price they are being traded at right now! Question is, do I buy a few 100k worth first day on the market?
The joy of a good mental & emotional wrestle alone 😔
Apparently doing this makes me "in the money" OMG it sounds great, but bank account says otherwise 😢
Not enough liquidity to do that
Have a buy order in BHP at $38 ever since i sold out. But if RNU drops around ~$0.19 im tempted to add there
If there's some macro event I am keeping a keen eye on this one to get way oversold, its a fickle stock.
Borisboy promised 18c awhile ago, I'm still waiting.
HC former RNU megaramper turned end of days down ramper
I missed the mega ramper part, for RNU?
Yeah before he went all doom and gloom he was insanely bullish (or just stupid) on RNU
Oh it's my neighbour
Farken dope beats tho
Looks like a got new tracks to add to my Spotify playlist 👍🏾
Fuck, that is so good
Haha, Aussie Gold right there!!!!🤣
Cunt should be PM!!!
As the young folk would say, that is Dope I believe.
no cap no cap
ACF ex-divvy today but still green. It's the Darren Buffett in the dog house that is my portfolio.
PLS is just floating lol... Not even AKE at 4% can lift it up much.
Still above what you sold it for.
Haven't heard any thoughts on thoughts in a while,thoughts?
I'm in thought now myself, thoughts on this.
What happened EYE guy?
got his exit liquidity pump & ran most likely
He was framed
Lost sight of the prize, no one's seen them since. A bit myopic if you ask me but I'm sure they'll be in contact soon. Keep an eye out
Directors were near sighted, no longer term vision for the company. Too focussed on details. Tunnel vision with their blinkers on.
I'd recommend drops
Fuck you WR1. You're dead to me.
If you're worried about the SP movement, some patience is required for assays to come in. Or better yet, some research as to what they are likely sitting on and what would be a fair valuation for that compared to its peers.
You'll be back, we always do
EXR from .127 to .14 on some pretty big buys...um, I'll take it
Big news coming in ? One dollar party ?
RNU nooo! My only sliver of green is getting ever so slivery…er…
Happy cake day 🍰
like when you have a saw foot and get punched in the arm to distract you from the foot pain.
Punch in the arm isn't gonna distract me from that
Pain is temporary pain is temporary
Losses are forever
No one warned me the red would be this bad…
I swear I did... May is dumping season...
Do you lose more money on the ASX or does your Nan lose more on the pokies?
Asking the real questions
AVL quarterly, sitting on $23m cash with no debt, progressing well across all areas.
Possibly some further volatility and downside given market conditions, but definitely one for the watchlist.
It's a bit reddish out there innit
ASO doing ASO - I know it so well, yet I just watch the profits disappear each time
A tale as old as time, I was too greedy and didnt hand my SRN bags bag waiting for them to be completely refilled...
Why is AKE green today while rest are red?
Talk of a Rio Tinto takeover of AKE.
Bots at work. Shares above the $10 are easily to control due to volume.
My guess: A lot of their revenue I'd from Lithium Carbonate sales, carbonate prices ticked up for the first time in months yesterday.
Thanks. Not that I am complaining.
all this bombardment of company announcements, and I am currently up 0.01% for the day 🤡
the excitement of the current ASX knows no bounds
Last 2 days been pretty shit for EXR. Dog status: strong
Was *that* the bottom ......
fuck it, i bought in to dca down
watch it crash and burn further because i fomo'ed in on the single green day out of 30 red days
Gonna be plenty more opportunities to throw good money after bad in the future
Mods, i thought this was a safe space
The drama between the moneyofmine podcast and PMT hotcopper forum is a delight to read.
what's the drama? it's been lacking since that 65year oldceo stopped using tik tok to update his 20year old gf?
Day 2 of waiting for BRK to buy back shares.
as you wished for u/kervio
Does it come in oddly shaped fittings for those of us with deformed heads? I feel like this is important.
Probably leave the memes for people who actually can
Bearish on sales in this sub.
And the frustrating bear market grinds on, hang in there people it will turn. One day. Maybe.
I’ll keep mentioning it as news heating up that Mozambique will be where the party starts next. President says it’s safe as houses mate, get those drills turning bois
Buying more SCHW tonight
What's next? A controlling stake in a textile manufacturing company?
Partially fulfilled order has ruined my clean number of shares held, someone get me the manager's number please.
Getting pooped on today
Just gotta wait for the buyback to kick in hopefully, then maybe a strong June quarterly and then some form of unspecified monetisation event at some point. Maybe 2 cents by Christmas 😉🤞
I want 4 cents now 😤
Getting in on some 2 girls 1 cup action?
SYR DFS for 45ktpa AAM is not great. US$540m capex, NPV in the range of US$208-794m. At the lower end of the range that’s not a viable project is it? $200m NPV with a 6 year payback and 13% IRR. Lot of risk for little return.
TLG holders, what do we make of the AAM pricing used by SYR? Range of $5-7k/t is still a concern for TLG when they’re forecasting $10-12k/t. Easy to say Talga’s anode is higher performance so commands a higher sale price, but until binding offtakes are signed to confirm the price there’s a big risk there.
That pricing also highlights the worth of an AAM offtake with Tesla, or lack of it. Take note MNS holders.
Very significant price delta. Has my attention for sure.
The $10-12k/t came from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Bad intel, big AAM quality difference? Combination of both? Is the SYR and TLG AAM apples to apples?
Nice to see some numbers at least, sheds some light on the Tesla deals.
For what its worth NVX has indicated many times their plans revolve around an anode price of approx $10/kt as well, so if the going price is closer to $5-7k then that would be a surprise for everybody.
Makes me think SYR's AAM may not be the best, and/or they were shafted by Tesla?
I’ve seen graphitic AAM material price forecasts anywhere between $5-20k+/t.
My understand is that with natural graphite anode there is no real apples-to-apples comparison, all have different characteristics hence the extended qualification periods required. The stuff in the ground and the way it is processed will both contribute to its properties to different extents. The properties will determine what someone is willing to pay for it. Syrah have long forecast a number of around $7k/t as have NMG (Canada). TLG have always been an outlier, supposedly because of the superior quality. Without a binding offtake you have to take the company’s word that the BMI forecast is achievable. I suspect that the hold up with the ACC and Verkor deals are that a pricing mechanism can’t be agreed upon. If pricing cant be agreed in-line with the Vittangi DFS then the Talga investment case starts to look shaky. It’s a big risk, one at the moment I’m comfortable with but the longer it drags on and the longer graphite anode pricing doesn’t move upwards, the wobblier I’ll get. The Syrah numbers do look very poor.
NVX is a bit different because synthetic graphite does command higher pricing due to different performance characteristics and the ability to produce a more uniform supply, because it doesn’t need the natural graphite input. I’d suggest $10k/t+ is much more achievable, but with that comes a much higher carbon footprint which comes with its own problems.
At the higher end EV1 are claiming their AAM from natural graphite in Tanzania would command $US18-22k/t. Dreaming.
I would also add that the BMI numbers used by Talga have to viewed through the lens of BMI being a paid consultant to TLG for the DFS. I’m not sure how close Mark Thompson of Talga is to Simon Moores of BMI but they do seem to be acquainted. That shouldn’t make a difference but I would try to not underestimate the influence a personal network can make.
ASM: we did what we said we would!
Literally anyone: we did the thing 🤭
Market: SHUT THE FUCK UP LOSER
Literally anyone: 😕
Looks like IDT is still alive - who needs to manufacture vaccines when there are "Specialty Orals"
Snoo on PLS red days
* "LOL PLS"
* "PLS to $2"
* "LOL I told you so"
* "haha PLS sheep"
* \*making memes\*
* Losers, etc
Snoo on PLS green days
I had been honestly busy for the last 10 days
Is quarterly supposed to come out today?
You don't think it will end green with results tomorrow?
I’d say -20% tomorrow
Your just saying that because you’ve got a bet running so can’t be called on that statement 😉
my favourite running gag at the moment. Do you sell "PLS to $2" mugs or hats? I must have one.
Surely you can just do a CR to get “boots on the ground” or heck we go to bunnings and buy the display shed to erect…..and CR that progress…..but be sure its the discounted one with three walls cos the market likes 3 walls for a bit.
Buy a drill? What the fuck for?
You'll get 8 CR's out of surface rock samples, including pumps for boots on the ground. Record a fart on site and you've got potential gas deposits.
Grind up whatever radioactive element they use in older fire alarms - bam! High surface radioactive scans.
Scratch your gold ring on a sample rock - elevated gold levels.
Grab some rocks from under the car - oil soaked porous rocks found.
And of course - smash a lithium battery with a rock, call it a spodumene sample.
Billion dollar site, all without leaving dads farm
I'll make you a nice PowerPoint and do some late afternoon drone photos
Put the smashed battery on a leaf and tell mum, waddaya know we have an anode qualification plant and are in advanced negotiations with interested parties.
On a leaf! 😂
It's green credentials
You even think about putting boots on the ground and you're done champ
Steel toes on terra firma
u/wowveryjosh this guy stealing our ideas. Let's discuss how we take him down later over a cold dare and a nice walk through the ol' "tenements".
Happy to be the dude with the handheld metal detector for $200k and 5 mil performance shares for turning up to 5 meetings a year (those meetings are director fees on top of course)
Go ya halves
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Blackmores have a nice take over bid
Yesterdays close to as $76 a share
Take over is for $95
Market opened today at $93.60.
Anyway with that said
Don’t forget to take your vitamins this morning.
Who wants them?
So LMG is making decent headway into engineering and construction timelines - grossly 30% complete.
Vic government grants being announced in the next couple of weeks which LMG projects should qualify for, and these should be significant amounts with respect to the market cap.
Balances all looking good too!
Looks very shaky
Quarterlies and Cap Raise TH everywhere I look
How you gonna raise capital at ATL?
Easily it seems
Management - "some of you (all retail) may die through dilution, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make (because I still make money)"
Gotta pay those director fees and exec salaries somehow 💰
One of my shares is suspended indefinitely because they don't have enough going on to still be considered worthy of the ASX, and they'll only be let back in if they find some ground to put some boots on.
I’ve got tld in that category and kpo and TZL might as well be.. both stubbornly only 99% down…
You just want to scream at the screen "FINISH HIM!" but they just won't die
TZL didn’t even win me the bets dog contest …
My bets dog struck lithium and has doubled in value. 🤷♂️
I had a dog that did that… two actually!
I'm going to need that ticker. Sounds perfect
Also KLI bout to raise at ATL if that tickles your fancy…
DNK but to be fair to management, they sold their only project recently and they promise to almost definitely pay shareholders most of the money from the sale. So, fingers crossed?
Enough DD here 👍
Sadly you can't actually buy the stock since they are suspended, but you can admire their work from afar.
On my watch list
To be fair that’s a step up from most dog stocks here
'worthy of the ASX' such a high bar 🤦♂️