VMT been undervalued for so long, not sure what the market doesn't like about it.
Hoping for another red day tomorrow so can grab a decent chunk at .320 or less as mostly just holding cash in the offset account now.
Even though last year was rough, I feel like the January rally just helps make this years drop even worse, but will wait and see.
Ehh not a pump, it's just the only one I follow that has dropped a lot recently on no news, and even with like 30% margin of safety still get 0.70 ish fair value. Revenue up, strong balance sheet, no debt, losses to offset tax now profitable, positive cashflow, EPS up, good industry etc. I'm clearly missing something though.
Need to learn to take profits when 10% up. If I’d have done just that, I’d be a lot better off than I am now besides this ‘time spent in the market’ bullshit
Pure gamble;
Bought 100k units of IHL at 17c, relisted them at 17.5c immediately - looking to maybe move that to 18c before open tomorrow.
The sell side helping me feel ok about it, looks really weak at the moment and the action today looked to be 4 big on market sells, then auction was a solid amount of buying which was nice.
It took someone selling about 4-5k of stock to give you paper losses of 20% or so.
Like I have said before, very illiquid. Get a stronger stomach for something like HVY
Would you dumbfucks stop buying this stock.
Whats wrong with you?
And stop being so surprised when it dumps hard on no liquidity and gaps up 30% on a 20c trade for one share.
oof -1.86% on close, but up from -2.68%
IMU + RNU + VML dipping + NXL & MGT & OBM green run ending
Only thing that looked positive was MNS and ASM heading back up
I decided rather than pouring over VUL's [DFS](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4), I'd just pick the key areas and update my comparison table. I'm discussing phase one *only*.
* CAPEX has risen from €700m @ 15ktpa ([p.2](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02330867-6A1015607?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)) to €1,496m @ 24ktpa ([p.1](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)). Allowing for economy of scale, that's around a 35-40% increase, in line with other industry CAPEX revisions.
* OPEX has risen from €3,139/t ([p.2](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02330867-6A1015607?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)) to €4,359/t ([p.1](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)). Technically that 39% rise is in line with inflation, but it was previously at a smaller phase one scale (15ktpa not 25ktpa).
Unlike LKE and ASN, I don't believe VUL has proven their process properly in tests yet ([p.69](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)), so I'm uncertain about how those figures ended up in a DFS. LKE's DFS was delayed by their need to provide more accurate data, so I think more industry consistency is justified.
* They're targeting commissioning in Q4 2025, which equates to full production at the end of 2026 (that info was released to market previously). Excludes legal delays.
* big increase to a 26.6mt resource from 15mt, so we'll see if they can unlock its potential.
* Phase 2 DFS to come, but at this point, I think they just need to fight for phase one, considering the size of the CAPEX.
* I spoke about the lithium hydroxide sale price [earlier](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/110soaf/comment/j8auuqs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), which knocks the NPV down 25% to \~US$2b. For comparison, ASN used a sale price of US$19k/t when the lithium spot price was at ¥509k/t. The spot price is now <¥490k/t, yet VUL have used $32.4k/t (70% higher).
The ASX ought to challenge that. I've seen other companies use US$25k/t, but VUL's price is still 30% above that.
Here's an [updated DLE comparison table](https://imgur.com/a/igNyPUb) which only includes LKE, ASN & VUL. I couldn't be bothered recalibrating Standard Lithium or E3's figures, and the ASX has shown repeatedly that it has its own valuation style. The table adjusts all NPV's to US$25k/t LCE, and I think I've updated everything else correctly (let me know if you see an error). *Ownership is factored in*.
Bright yellow box shows market cap to NPV ratio. *Note to new members, you can't normally do this because projects use different sale prices. However, I've brought them to parity using the sensitivity analysis*. Lower is better.
I've included the pale yellow box as another metric, which is market cap to CAPEX ratio. Higher is better (400% would be great).
Edit: Where do LKE's figures come from?
They upset my table by committing to a base case of 50ktpa, so I've had to reach into my arse yet again. I took the sensitivity analysis, pumped the OPEX and CAPEX by >30%, then wound that back a little due to economy of scale. Might be contentious, but I think in light of what's been happening across the industry, my guesstimates are reasonable, or even slightly generous.
DFS releases have been few and far between in the last short while, but some of the more recent ones that spat out good *paper* numbers were rewarded, such as ASN, EMH, FFX late 2021.
LKE, GLN, AGY (?) yet to come.
Thank god I wasnt crazy, spent a few minutes on the dfs and saw premarket and open green and thought I was losing my mind that it really wasn't that stellar. I'd be getting worried owning any stock thats heavily relying on a good DFS right now, I cant remember the last good one.
Biotech has taken such a beating, feels like there might be some room for shopping soon...
But me saying that makes me think its not breaten down enough.
Casual shill. I’ve been nibbling OSX, share price is beaten down a little after an insto cap raise at 15c to buy their Asian distributor. 3D printed individualised bioresorbable bone scaffold, steady revenue but not profitable. Products approved in cranial surgery, replacing metal plates and bone grafts. Pipeline of other products in dental, long bone and I think spinal surgery. Not a lot of cash on hand though from memory so probably another CR coming at some point this year.
Being a physio my trash biotech watchlist is usually huge. I have to keep culling it.
OSX is working on about 80% gross margin I think. They’ve got FDA, TGA, CE Mark approval and a bunch of Asian/South American ones too. Just added to Australia’s prosthesis list recently too. There’s some awesome stories floating around of the uses outside the current approved products: saved a police officer’s leg which was on the chopping block after shattering his heel falling from something and 11 failed surgeries, I assume with all sorts of pins, wires and screws.
Biotech Lobbyist... Looking at how it was Chi-X data it does have the narrative of foreign funds. Most likely have affiliated parties to them to buy and sell after news. Quite similar to how Next Investor operates as well their investment arm and media arm.
/u/Mr_X2017 I just realized PSC has 2 projects
Remember when we were chatting, i was talking about their "omaruru" lithium project in Namibia - which doesn't seem too appealing to me
Their "step Aside" lithium project is in Zimbabwe, 8km north of the old Arcadia mine (this is the one they're going to drill now)
I've been sick the last 2 days, super busy this week so ive been really off it... but its a big week for sure. CPI consensus 6.2. My gut says it could be high, if it runs high along with high jobs numbers then we'll definitely see some market selloffs, not sure how deep but definitely rate sensitive stocks as we could see fed funds rate of 6%. RIP me for not selling XRO at 85 hey.
If we get < 6.2 then I expect a solid rally, but probably nothing spectacular unless theres some really good core CPI numbers.
What was your thoughts on the blow out of the US jobs data 517k?
With tech lay offs it's got me wondering where the jobs are. I'm thinking some could be coming from Europe with the inflation reduction act and companies moving jobs from the EU to the USA [example](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1725904/ford-cuts-jobs-europe-germany-cologne-usa-eu-commission-biden-inflation-reduction-act)
If this is the case it will be interesting to see the those effects on supply/demand and the possible corresponding movements to inflation.
I'm gonna need to see February, I've read a lot about the adjustments they've made and the methodology which makes me curious about just how accurate the numbers are - but we basically need inflation to keep falling in a linear fashion or we'll be looking at a feds fund rate over 6% and who knows what that does.
Not exactly fudging, more poorly accounting for seasonality and demographic changes, then they make adjustments which are also flawed. Along the way its all influenced by a heap of bias too. A bit of a mess really.
I'm not suggesting it's consciously nefarious, just people are always bias to their own experiences and when you start fucking with numbers and making a heap of adjustments - well you get numbers that dont make sense.
Focus on this sort of stuff this was probably a thing back in 2016-2018 when the Fed was raising rates after keeping them low for an extended period after the GFC.
Yeah this is pretty standard, it’s just previously the numbers were unlikely to influence anything else (cash rate).
PPI = [Producer Price Inflation](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/producer-price-inflation-mom)
😂 I’m going back to work next week after a 4 month sabbatical being able to watch this stuff all day. New employer probably going to wonder why I’m doing 17 poos a day.
Yea similar boat, had 2 years now stay at home dad, had a health issue that made it easier for me to stay home... gonna have to tell my new workplace i have IBS or something.
Dsk 1h 23 in a couple of weeks. Price has been beaten back down from mid January highs. Might chuck some more dollars at it and hope for the best.
u/kervio 👀
Surprised at the ADH pump and dump also. I think retailers are confusing the market. The indications are that figures have been OK, but there were some nerves after the december retail data was weak. If the numbers are ok then this is a great price, but if not then we're screwed.
There might be some clues when other BECKY stocks report. Myer did well.
Edit: NCK is the only other one I found that reported and it was sold down heavily.
NCK had really good results, but they reported a soft January and possibly the start of a softer 2nd half. They got ripped 20% for that, maybe fair enough, but I don't know enough about their figures to say.
Well Fuck. I go to my shopping centre 1-2 times per year. I HATE shopping with every fibre of my body. But i gotta get a birthday present for my kid and its clothing and womens clothing sizes are too fucked up to buy online.
I always go Mondays. Cos its dead. Usually.
Its like late November levels busy!!!
Brace yourselves the interest rates have NOT worked yet 😂
I recall once saw market analysis about consumer power which they ranked few categories
Consumer power pyramid
Women > kids > pets (dogs..) > men
I was shocked
Looking at the BHP graph (5Y or Max), is it just me or does it look like it'll fall back to low 40s or <40? Looks like a cycle.
Not making any predictions here, just opening it up for discussion.
Currently in a weekly uptrend as long as weekly support of 44.93 holds. Chart is just printing a weekly higher-low so far, no red flags. I'd be watching weekly support. If that breaks, then yeah, $40 is easily doable. Plus it would still be in a monthly uptrend.
Just broke up into ATH's but no follow-through yet. Daily RSI was overbought but has cooled off now.
A break above 50.21 from here would be new highs, no resistance above and a continuation of the uptrend
It's really going to depend on if the Chinese government continues to pump up the economy it could definitely dip below $40 this year and with half year results due next week we should see where the company expects commodity prices to go.
With all this talk of avoiding a recession though I'm even less confident considering all the usual indicators are being hit, if we have one and even a small one it could present a great buying chance as BHP has invested heavily now in copper and nickel which should be in huge demand in the future
u/JSwyft \- will give you the answers you want https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/110soaf/comment/j8auuqs/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
It might jump back to 18.5 by end of day looking at the sell side and its recovery already, looks like it was just a few on market dumps earlier that tanked it.
I'm an impatient fucker and put in for 17c, will probably drop to 15c if it fills...
Edit: Oh shit, it filled - i guess it'll be my fault if it hits 15c
QPM with an interesting interview https://youtu.be/lUEkpbMlFHc worth the watch if you're invested and definitely adds confidence for me personally, they even seem to believe when they raise the capital for the project it will be at a premium to todays price? Still think the dilution aspect is too spooky for many people and they won't invest until thats all said and done
When it comes to raising capital we reckon we'll have to do so at a steep discount. Probably some nasty attaching oppies which don't bring fuck all in terms of capital but act as a drag on the price til at least 2026.
If I could I'd sell now, but I'd like to thank our long term investors for their inexplicable support
I mean, GM paid for shares at a \~33%+ premium to todays price, had access to the AFS and did 2 months of DD, so I don't believe you can be completely dismissive to the potential thought that companies will be investing at a premium. 3 tier 1 investors in LG, POSCO and GM all with 100% binding offtakes and own \~16% of the company, but yeh I guess it won't be going anywhere. So much negative sentiment towards it in here
I was really just pointing out that the MD saying anything except what they said would seem absurd so it probably shouldn't be taken as data.
Was in the context of a general comment about speccy MDs
I’m a holder, dumped about 200k back at $0.185 on TA as it looked like it would fall to $0.165 again, but then it kept falling. I kept another holding in my Super and have another buy set at $0.125 to bring the Super hold to 500k. I’m still a believer but fuck it’s been hard to watch on a chart
I’m usually not that risky but I think they’ll land a substantial deal and be around for a while that’s why I buy those bigger holds with Super so I don’t shit myself and paper hand it.
Got out of NDQ. Should have got out in Dec 2021 but that’s how it goes. Walked away with a very small profit, which isn’t too bad a price to pay for learning more about how markets work in conjunction with interest rate cycles and the like. And the irrationality of some aspects of the NASDAQ if I’m honest.
I feel relieved. It was about a third of my portfolio and I kept looking at the tied up capital against the opportunity cost of putting it back into my mortgage.
So now I’m down to a lithium/graphite portfolio (75%) and VDHG (25%).
Same here, albeit at a tiny loss % (covered by the dividends I’d made). There were plenty of people during Dec 21 warning about imminent market drops, but did I cash out any of my profits? Of course not.
In hindsight it’s obvious that the start of tightening monetary policy would be the peak of the market, but it wasn’t obvious to me at the time.
Patrick Boyle did a good video on it after the fact (on whether to buy at the start or the end of rate tightening) and the takeaway for me was basically buy as rates are going down, sell when they start going up. At least for whole of market things like ETFs.
I’m probably spread too thin but AGY, AKE, AZL, ASN, BNR, EGR, FRS, GL1, LEL, LMG (actually magnesium but I liked the concept), LTR, PLS, RGL, RNU, TMB. Bit of a mix of established, hopefully up and coming, and utterly speculative.
It’s a high risk punt on PEP11 being approved even if a court overturns Scomos decision. Labor were pretty blunt that it won’t happen. And I doubt even if overturned that there would be a case for compensation either. The only thing that would make a difference is if a future LNP government decides to approve it some time in the distant future.
Could this have something to do with it?! SB Energy, Toyota Tsusho and EXR 🤔
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/SoftBank-renewable-energy-unit-to-be-acquired-by-Toyota-Tsusho
Yep. It's hit that perfect low point where I no longer have the luxury of cutting losses. The remaining $9k is now just ... Free money right?
🤡
I've got about $200k locked and loaded for a house deposit, I guess $9k won't make a huge difference. (🤡)
Lots of commodities down again, wondering if the January uptick was both seasonal but also a supply shock with China's reopening being so sudden. We'll see in the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1624938683513315329?t=U1CL6BUR7Qb3Pj5u6VLXOw&s=19
Someone mentioned OM1 a week or two ago and I almost bought on Thursday but pussied out. It’s now up ~15%. Guess I’ll just continue sitting here watching it like a dumbfuck
this thing has been on my watchlist for a couple of years.. always thought, ah I should've gambled a bit on that.... anyway. funny how things turn out. What is the TL;DR on this thing?
Why invest in oil and gas companies in the heart of Africa when you can just as easily lose money in oil and gas companies in tier 1 jurisdictions with BRK and CE1
Yep and the company’s actually are generating profits and free cashflow. Not sexy enough though, it’s all about the potential not actually being a successful business 🤦♂️
It’s hot as. Got in at 1.1c staring at gains wondering when STO will come out with the coal appraisals and buy BAS out for +200 million… please gas jeebus
GNC have their report/AGM this Thursday, think I'm going to add a bit more today in the hope of an upside surprise... numbers are going to be a battle between erratic weather that's been going on over the past year vs. the still pretty high prices of wheat compared to historic trends due to Ukraine war etc.
share price currently hovering around 52-week lows, so pray for me 🙏
I seem to remember someone here going on about how FMG is way overvalued. I'm looking into that now. Does anyone who is more familiar with FMG than me have any comments on what they are seeing? Based on a very cursory look, production is ramping up and it seems like decent enough value, with good margins. I feel like I am missing something
FMG / BHP / RIO are in general tied to the IO price, which have been doing well through covid years + increasing output . Brazil IO output was down \~20% last year. FMG's latest Iron Bridge mine has had massive cost blow outs and some delays though will start producing 2-3rd quarter. FMG are spending big on FFI. I think \~$20 is fair price
likely because its share price is almost back at the same level it was when iron ore was trading at \~$215 USD per ton even though now it's around $125/ton
and Twiggy has been splurging precious boomer divvy money on green memery hopes & dreams
around \~7 or so at the time I believe
atm with the current recent ore prices, higher operating costs most miners are experiencing & the money being dumped into FFI I wouldn't be surprised if the forward P/E ends up being much higher than many are thinking it currently is
gonna be a lot of boomer crying if they cut divvies by too much, but maybe axeing all these staff is an attempt to prevent against having to do that 🤷♂️
feel like the "China re-opening bandwagon" assumed ore prices would spike back up, but they really haven't
VMT been undervalued for so long, not sure what the market doesn't like about it. Hoping for another red day tomorrow so can grab a decent chunk at .320 or less as mostly just holding cash in the offset account now. Even though last year was rough, I feel like the January rally just helps make this years drop even worse, but will wait and see.
Weak pump from a username that doesn't fill me with great confidence
Ehh not a pump, it's just the only one I follow that has dropped a lot recently on no news, and even with like 30% margin of safety still get 0.70 ish fair value. Revenue up, strong balance sheet, no debt, losses to offset tax now profitable, positive cashflow, EPS up, good industry etc. I'm clearly missing something though.
You should load up on BRK. INCREDIBLY UNDERVALUED
Need to learn to take profits when 10% up. If I’d have done just that, I’d be a lot better off than I am now besides this ‘time spent in the market’ bullshit
Probably less true for blue chips
Pure gamble; Bought 100k units of IHL at 17c, relisted them at 17.5c immediately - looking to maybe move that to 18c before open tomorrow. The sell side helping me feel ok about it, looks really weak at the moment and the action today looked to be 4 big on market sells, then auction was a solid amount of buying which was nice.
Got damn HVY, took a heavy dump on my portfolio bringing it into the red at the end of the day.
It took someone selling about 4-5k of stock to give you paper losses of 20% or so. Like I have said before, very illiquid. Get a stronger stomach for something like HVY
Would you dumbfucks stop buying this stock. Whats wrong with you? And stop being so surprised when it dumps hard on no liquidity and gaps up 30% on a 20c trade for one share.
oof -1.86% on close, but up from -2.68% IMU + RNU + VML dipping + NXL & MGT & OBM green run ending Only thing that looked positive was MNS and ASM heading back up
KSS up 10%. Only 75% down. Come on Clifford let’s get back to 50%
I decided rather than pouring over VUL's [DFS](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4), I'd just pick the key areas and update my comparison table. I'm discussing phase one *only*. * CAPEX has risen from €700m @ 15ktpa ([p.2](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02330867-6A1015607?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)) to €1,496m @ 24ktpa ([p.1](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)). Allowing for economy of scale, that's around a 35-40% increase, in line with other industry CAPEX revisions. * OPEX has risen from €3,139/t ([p.2](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02330867-6A1015607?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)) to €4,359/t ([p.1](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)). Technically that 39% rise is in line with inflation, but it was previously at a smaller phase one scale (15ktpa not 25ktpa). Unlike LKE and ASN, I don't believe VUL has proven their process properly in tests yet ([p.69](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02630386-6A1135971?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)), so I'm uncertain about how those figures ended up in a DFS. LKE's DFS was delayed by their need to provide more accurate data, so I think more industry consistency is justified. * They're targeting commissioning in Q4 2025, which equates to full production at the end of 2026 (that info was released to market previously). Excludes legal delays. * big increase to a 26.6mt resource from 15mt, so we'll see if they can unlock its potential. * Phase 2 DFS to come, but at this point, I think they just need to fight for phase one, considering the size of the CAPEX. * I spoke about the lithium hydroxide sale price [earlier](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/110soaf/comment/j8auuqs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), which knocks the NPV down 25% to \~US$2b. For comparison, ASN used a sale price of US$19k/t when the lithium spot price was at ¥509k/t. The spot price is now <¥490k/t, yet VUL have used $32.4k/t (70% higher). The ASX ought to challenge that. I've seen other companies use US$25k/t, but VUL's price is still 30% above that. Here's an [updated DLE comparison table](https://imgur.com/a/igNyPUb) which only includes LKE, ASN & VUL. I couldn't be bothered recalibrating Standard Lithium or E3's figures, and the ASX has shown repeatedly that it has its own valuation style. The table adjusts all NPV's to US$25k/t LCE, and I think I've updated everything else correctly (let me know if you see an error). *Ownership is factored in*. Bright yellow box shows market cap to NPV ratio. *Note to new members, you can't normally do this because projects use different sale prices. However, I've brought them to parity using the sensitivity analysis*. Lower is better. I've included the pale yellow box as another metric, which is market cap to CAPEX ratio. Higher is better (400% would be great). Edit: Where do LKE's figures come from? They upset my table by committing to a base case of 50ktpa, so I've had to reach into my arse yet again. I took the sensitivity analysis, pumped the OPEX and CAPEX by >30%, then wound that back a little due to economy of scale. Might be contentious, but I think in light of what's been happening across the industry, my guesstimates are reasonable, or even slightly generous.
Report them for misleading price points!
Any company drop a good DFS/PFS ? Entirely Worth its pre pump expectations ?
DFS releases have been few and far between in the last short while, but some of the more recent ones that spat out good *paper* numbers were rewarded, such as ASN, EMH, FFX late 2021. LKE, GLN, AGY (?) yet to come.
Thank god I wasnt crazy, spent a few minutes on the dfs and saw premarket and open green and thought I was losing my mind that it really wasn't that stellar. I'd be getting worried owning any stock thats heavily relying on a good DFS right now, I cant remember the last good one.
Biotech has taken such a beating, feels like there might be some room for shopping soon... But me saying that makes me think its not breaten down enough.
Casual shill. I’ve been nibbling OSX, share price is beaten down a little after an insto cap raise at 15c to buy their Asian distributor. 3D printed individualised bioresorbable bone scaffold, steady revenue but not profitable. Products approved in cranial surgery, replacing metal plates and bone grafts. Pipeline of other products in dental, long bone and I think spinal surgery. Not a lot of cash on hand though from memory so probably another CR coming at some point this year.
It wasnt on my trash biotech list so now it is haha
Being a physio my trash biotech watchlist is usually huge. I have to keep culling it. OSX is working on about 80% gross margin I think. They’ve got FDA, TGA, CE Mark approval and a bunch of Asian/South American ones too. Just added to Australia’s prosthesis list recently too. There’s some awesome stories floating around of the uses outside the current approved products: saved a police officer’s leg which was on the chopping block after shattering his heel falling from something and 11 failed surgeries, I assume with all sorts of pins, wires and screws.
Bye Bye IMU. 10.4m share dump in 2 mins is flag for me.
Doesn't that happen every week for IMU though
Massive dump after news release after a previous bottom challenge. Opinion someone asked for a bump to offload.
Someone asked for the patent application to be approved? Or is there more recent news both SW and ASX are missing?
Biotech Lobbyist... Looking at how it was Chi-X data it does have the narrative of foreign funds. Most likely have affiliated parties to them to buy and sell after news. Quite similar to how Next Investor operates as well their investment arm and media arm.
I have IMU flagged as 100% leaky ship, so thats concerning, but also lots of biotech is red today with on-market dumps.
Flagging... the bottom? Say its the bottom, please.
Paging NoDuffTrading 0.105 🙊
Let’s see if there’s another dump on close to 10c or a pump to wipe out .105. Definitely being held back with this .102 trades though
Back to evens lmao
After hours close will be interesting
PSC up 70% in 5 days following the announcement of drilling to commence
Can testify that, made my day. Been holding for a while though
PSC just got paused by listing compliance
Speeding ticket
/u/Mr_X2017 I just realized PSC has 2 projects Remember when we were chatting, i was talking about their "omaruru" lithium project in Namibia - which doesn't seem too appealing to me Their "step Aside" lithium project is in Zimbabwe, 8km north of the old Arcadia mine (this is the one they're going to drill now)
PSC LFG
Wow what a dead day .. what bullshit fed announcement are we waiting on now that absolutely no one but Throwaway comprehensively understands ?
US CPI is Tuesday night, retail sales Wednesday night, PPI Thursday night.
I've been sick the last 2 days, super busy this week so ive been really off it... but its a big week for sure. CPI consensus 6.2. My gut says it could be high, if it runs high along with high jobs numbers then we'll definitely see some market selloffs, not sure how deep but definitely rate sensitive stocks as we could see fed funds rate of 6%. RIP me for not selling XRO at 85 hey. If we get < 6.2 then I expect a solid rally, but probably nothing spectacular unless theres some really good core CPI numbers.
What was your thoughts on the blow out of the US jobs data 517k? With tech lay offs it's got me wondering where the jobs are. I'm thinking some could be coming from Europe with the inflation reduction act and companies moving jobs from the EU to the USA [example](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1725904/ford-cuts-jobs-europe-germany-cologne-usa-eu-commission-biden-inflation-reduction-act) If this is the case it will be interesting to see the those effects on supply/demand and the possible corresponding movements to inflation.
Also looked like the jobs were in gov/hospo which are lower paying, so probably not the most inflationary if they are replacint tech jobs.
I'm gonna need to see February, I've read a lot about the adjustments they've made and the methodology which makes me curious about just how accurate the numbers are - but we basically need inflation to keep falling in a linear fashion or we'll be looking at a feds fund rate over 6% and who knows what that does.
Thanks for the insight. Also I'm shocked they might be fudging numbers. Shocked i tells ya 😂
Not exactly fudging, more poorly accounting for seasonality and demographic changes, then they make adjustments which are also flawed. Along the way its all influenced by a heap of bias too. A bit of a mess really.
If someone you knew was poorly accounting in a way that was favourable to their end goal wouldn't you see it as fudging?
I'm not suggesting it's consciously nefarious, just people are always bias to their own experiences and when you start fucking with numbers and making a heap of adjustments - well you get numbers that dont make sense.
Thanks again, looking forward to your take over the next few days if you're not too crook 🙏
What in the fuck is PPI ... and how the fuck are these announcements popping up like every 2 weeks. Has this happened any years before 2022?
Focus on this sort of stuff this was probably a thing back in 2016-2018 when the Fed was raising rates after keeping them low for an extended period after the GFC.
Yeah this is pretty standard, it’s just previously the numbers were unlikely to influence anything else (cash rate). PPI = [Producer Price Inflation](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/producer-price-inflation-mom)
In 18 months when these all dont matter anymore I'm not sure what I'll do with all my spare time.
😂 I’m going back to work next week after a 4 month sabbatical being able to watch this stuff all day. New employer probably going to wonder why I’m doing 17 poos a day.
Yea similar boat, had 2 years now stay at home dad, had a health issue that made it easier for me to stay home... gonna have to tell my new workplace i have IBS or something.
Dsk 1h 23 in a couple of weeks. Price has been beaten back down from mid January highs. Might chuck some more dollars at it and hope for the best. u/kervio 👀
Surprised at the ADH pump and dump also. I think retailers are confusing the market. The indications are that figures have been OK, but there were some nerves after the december retail data was weak. If the numbers are ok then this is a great price, but if not then we're screwed. There might be some clues when other BECKY stocks report. Myer did well. Edit: NCK is the only other one I found that reported and it was sold down heavily.
ADH definitely surprised me with the depth of the sell now, but I think people are just taking profits. Reporting will be interesting as you say.
NCK had really good results, but they reported a soft January and possibly the start of a softer 2nd half. They got ripped 20% for that, maybe fair enough, but I don't know enough about their figures to say.
Well Fuck. I go to my shopping centre 1-2 times per year. I HATE shopping with every fibre of my body. But i gotta get a birthday present for my kid and its clothing and womens clothing sizes are too fucked up to buy online. I always go Mondays. Cos its dead. Usually. Its like late November levels busy!!! Brace yourselves the interest rates have NOT worked yet 😂
I recall once saw market analysis about consumer power which they ranked few categories Consumer power pyramid Women > kids > pets (dogs..) > men I was shocked
In my house switch the first and last and thats accurate. But for my friends its accurate as hell.
valentines m8
Surely not for THAT? 😂
All the pink and love hearts around didn't clue you in?
I might be in a long term relationship that is so long term ive blocked out all such malarky 😂
DLC probably popping off with all the vibrator sales they're having Edit: Oh wait, DLC sold off their adult toys business....
Looking at the BHP graph (5Y or Max), is it just me or does it look like it'll fall back to low 40s or <40? Looks like a cycle. Not making any predictions here, just opening it up for discussion.
Currently in a weekly uptrend as long as weekly support of 44.93 holds. Chart is just printing a weekly higher-low so far, no red flags. I'd be watching weekly support. If that breaks, then yeah, $40 is easily doable. Plus it would still be in a monthly uptrend. Just broke up into ATH's but no follow-through yet. Daily RSI was overbought but has cooled off now. A break above 50.21 from here would be new highs, no resistance above and a continuation of the uptrend
It's really going to depend on if the Chinese government continues to pump up the economy it could definitely dip below $40 this year and with half year results due next week we should see where the company expects commodity prices to go. With all this talk of avoiding a recession though I'm even less confident considering all the usual indicators are being hit, if we have one and even a small one it could present a great buying chance as BHP has invested heavily now in copper and nickel which should be in huge demand in the future
Commodities are always in a cycle. You're new or something?
Yes, but identifying an exact peak and trough is another thing.
Averaged down on WHC, this can’t be go wrong right right right???
Coal boys 🙋🏼♂️
RR1 is finally god
Can someone smarter than me use their abacus or some shit and tell me if the VUL dfs good? Too many big numbers
Huge capex, and uses inflated lithium price... Huge challenge to get funding
Big numbers = Big profit
The science checks out
u/JSwyft \- will give you the answers you want https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/110soaf/comment/j8auuqs/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
[swifty earlier today touched on it](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/110soaf/market_open_thread_for_general_trading_and_plans/j8auuqs?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
IHL at 16.5c would have been nice. Seems safer than the pokies so going to put an order on.
It might jump back to 18.5 by end of day looking at the sell side and its recovery already, looks like it was just a few on market dumps earlier that tanked it.
I'm an impatient fucker and put in for 17c, will probably drop to 15c if it fills... Edit: Oh shit, it filled - i guess it'll be my fault if it hits 15c
QPM with an interesting interview https://youtu.be/lUEkpbMlFHc worth the watch if you're invested and definitely adds confidence for me personally, they even seem to believe when they raise the capital for the project it will be at a premium to todays price? Still think the dilution aspect is too spooky for many people and they won't invest until thats all said and done
Are you even a speccy CEO if you don't project unwavering confidence in your company?
When it comes to raising capital we reckon we'll have to do so at a steep discount. Probably some nasty attaching oppies which don't bring fuck all in terms of capital but act as a drag on the price til at least 2026. If I could I'd sell now, but I'd like to thank our long term investors for their inexplicable support
I mean, GM paid for shares at a \~33%+ premium to todays price, had access to the AFS and did 2 months of DD, so I don't believe you can be completely dismissive to the potential thought that companies will be investing at a premium. 3 tier 1 investors in LG, POSCO and GM all with 100% binding offtakes and own \~16% of the company, but yeh I guess it won't be going anywhere. So much negative sentiment towards it in here
I was really just pointing out that the MD saying anything except what they said would seem absurd so it probably shouldn't be taken as data. Was in the context of a general comment about speccy MDs
The steep discount with oppies really hits hard in the truth bone.
Who else fomo'ed into IMU last week? 🤚
Some big sells happening, 12.5c hit (ouch)
Not quite far enough for my order but we’re close, weak lead from the UFO Slayers overnight will do it
My 11.5c order is in, but I'm hopefully it doesn't fill
I’m a holder, dumped about 200k back at $0.185 on TA as it looked like it would fall to $0.165 again, but then it kept falling. I kept another holding in my Super and have another buy set at $0.125 to bring the Super hold to 500k. I’m still a believer but fuck it’s been hard to watch on a chart
I put in 2k, totally understand how you feel having invested a lot of money. We are on the same level 🥹
I’m usually not that risky but I think they’ll land a substantial deal and be around for a while that’s why I buy those bigger holds with Super so I don’t shit myself and paper hand it.
I bought in ages ago, avg of 0.24.
Picked up $5k at $0.49 dixember 2021, been FOMO buying the dip ever since. Beginning to think I’m the dip-shit
I'm watching and waiting to see if 11.5c will get tested...
One of my speccies has decided to explore copper at Mt Surprise Queensland. Buy a lithium explorers in WA and SURPRise motherfucker!
MCT?
Yes. MCT aka where’s Wally
Got out of NDQ. Should have got out in Dec 2021 but that’s how it goes. Walked away with a very small profit, which isn’t too bad a price to pay for learning more about how markets work in conjunction with interest rate cycles and the like. And the irrationality of some aspects of the NASDAQ if I’m honest. I feel relieved. It was about a third of my portfolio and I kept looking at the tied up capital against the opportunity cost of putting it back into my mortgage. So now I’m down to a lithium/graphite portfolio (75%) and VDHG (25%).
Same here, albeit at a tiny loss % (covered by the dividends I’d made). There were plenty of people during Dec 21 warning about imminent market drops, but did I cash out any of my profits? Of course not.
In hindsight it’s obvious that the start of tightening monetary policy would be the peak of the market, but it wasn’t obvious to me at the time. Patrick Boyle did a good video on it after the fact (on whether to buy at the start or the end of rate tightening) and the takeaway for me was basically buy as rates are going down, sell when they start going up. At least for whole of market things like ETFs.
What lithium and graphite players are you in on?
CXO, PLS. Also look into XRF
XRF chart looks good. Thanks
I’m probably spread too thin but AGY, AKE, AZL, ASN, BNR, EGR, FRS, GL1, LEL, LMG (actually magnesium but I liked the concept), LTR, PLS, RGL, RNU, TMB. Bit of a mix of established, hopefully up and coming, and utterly speculative.
Just be relieved it wasn't in ASIA, it's still down if you bought anytime in the last 2.5years (but at least its up 30% from the october lows)
Pain. Suffering, even.
One of my junior speccies - RML, going for a nice little trot today.
ASX:BUY another meme stock worthy of this sub. Bounty Oil & gas. 1.1 cent. Not held; or intending.
Chain it when someone asks what to buy. BUY ANL WOW
It’s a high risk punt on PEP11 being approved even if a court overturns Scomos decision. Labor were pretty blunt that it won’t happen. And I doubt even if overturned that there would be a case for compensation either. The only thing that would make a difference is if a future LNP government decides to approve it some time in the distant future.
EXR buy pressure seems to be building with some big buys going through
Ever since I propped buys at 12.5c it’s held ground.
Update: Peeps buying into 14.5c
Could this have something to do with it?! SB Energy, Toyota Tsusho and EXR 🤔 https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/SoftBank-renewable-energy-unit-to-be-acquired-by-Toyota-Tsusho
Oh IHL being a real cunt again.
So bad. $8k down now.
Looks like 1 seller in 3 lots, so probably not a big deal. Pretty much just waiting in the next results now.
Yep. It's hit that perfect low point where I no longer have the luxury of cutting losses. The remaining $9k is now just ... Free money right? 🤡 I've got about $200k locked and loaded for a house deposit, I guess $9k won't make a huge difference. (🤡)
Lots of commodities down again, wondering if the January uptick was both seasonal but also a supply shock with China's reopening being so sudden. We'll see in the next few weeks. https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1624938683513315329?t=U1CL6BUR7Qb3Pj5u6VLXOw&s=19
Geo’s Plain English the ARR ann for me please 🌹
We’re gonna need bigger trucks and excavators
Great news. Not really reflected in the share price right now but I'm a long hold now I think.
Someone mentioned OM1 a week or two ago and I almost bought on Thursday but pussied out. It’s now up ~15%. Guess I’ll just continue sitting here watching it like a dumbfuck
My commiserations. Coulda gone either way so don't feel bad.
Not selling some LKE when it's MC was over $3 billion based on nothing 🤡🤡🤡
I thought it was going to $10 okay
I didn’t sell because I’d held for less than a year and was trying to minimize CGT. Keeps me up at night it does
I made the same mistake with ADV and RBL, next time I get a multi-bagger I'm hitting the sell button...
sounds like you were still successful in minimising your CGT
if you don't buy a little when it hits 69c hand in your asx_bets membership
OMG I cannot believe it, the dog stock EXR touched 14c
back under 30% down now. Nice.
Update: 14.5c buys are incoming
Update: 14c line was cleared. Over a million units
Picked up some last week, feeling good about it. Wish I could say that about the rest of my portfolio.
Watch it dip again.
KNM cursed
this thing has been on my watchlist for a couple of years.. always thought, ah I should've gambled a bit on that.... anyway. funny how things turn out. What is the TL;DR on this thing?
Appen is my kink porn. Any holders?
Check out Exopharm then (EX1). Cap raise at a ~83% discount. Yikes.
God imagine buying in at $30+, gonna be a bag holder somewhere
I don’t hate myself that much
For fuck sake LKE
Priced in. Just a little tree shake. Not financial advice.
MAY looking like it will break the .105 wall today once and for good
Random orders going through at .110 earlier, I want to believe
Why invest in oil and gas companies in the heart of Africa when you can just as easily lose money in oil and gas companies in tier 1 jurisdictions with BRK and CE1
Yep and the company’s actually are generating profits and free cashflow. Not sexy enough though, it’s all about the potential not actually being a successful business 🤦♂️
Morn
BASO and BAS continuing to run today, almost paid off my losses on LKE and IVZ
There's a BASO? Fuck the graph must look like an erection.
It’s hot as. Got in at 1.1c staring at gains wondering when STO will come out with the coal appraisals and buy BAS out for +200 million… please gas jeebus
🍆💦💦
Fun and games tomorrow AM (Perth time) so our midday? But no TH, maybe tomorrow. Still no idea when BPH will resume trading
Interesting BUY is announced they want a trading halt tomorrow morning before the announcement but is still allowed to trade today
Pretty standard if they know the date a court verdict is being handed down.
First time seeing that kind of activity
So how good was January?
ASIC messing with NXL again - AFR hitpeice or real news....
Cmon CYM drop below 10c I Fkn dare ya !! So I can back up my Datsun 180Y
Just DM you. Have a look.
Thanks mate
Looking tasty..
Pray for whale 😢🐋
You still in EXR u/stinkyfatwhale
Nah. Haha literally drove the Waka bus off the cliff. I hold nothing else
Time to jump back on that bus I reckon
With what? Lol Even if I sold my arsehole over Mardi gras I'd make maybe $50
That’s like $100 this year because double mardi gras
How much is surgery to fix a prolapsed anus tho?
let me see if I can find the inv.. er, no idea sorry
😂
Sorry bud. I’d buy some of your arsehole ♥️
😘 Haha
you down mr. whale, or even?
Bruh... I'm down like a $3 hooker looking at the kids menu of Macca's lol
hey look at this wealthy sea mammal who can consider eating at a resturaunt
I use zip to pay off in instalments tho... And then default and delete my account.
here with ya. 30% down on IXR.
😢
GNC have their report/AGM this Thursday, think I'm going to add a bit more today in the hope of an upside surprise... numbers are going to be a battle between erratic weather that's been going on over the past year vs. the still pretty high prices of wheat compared to historic trends due to Ukraine war etc. share price currently hovering around 52-week lows, so pray for me 🙏
I seem to remember someone here going on about how FMG is way overvalued. I'm looking into that now. Does anyone who is more familiar with FMG than me have any comments on what they are seeing? Based on a very cursory look, production is ramping up and it seems like decent enough value, with good margins. I feel like I am missing something
No technical comment from me right now but I’d be cautious when prices are near ATHs. Just make sure you can justify it if you wanna get in.
Agree. I'm looking at a Citi mini warrant to short
FMG / BHP / RIO are in general tied to the IO price, which have been doing well through covid years + increasing output . Brazil IO output was down \~20% last year. FMG's latest Iron Bridge mine has had massive cost blow outs and some delays though will start producing 2-3rd quarter. FMG are spending big on FFI. I think \~$20 is fair price
Thanks so much. I wonder if the production milestones for Iron Bridge will become positive price catalysts
likely because its share price is almost back at the same level it was when iron ore was trading at \~$215 USD per ton even though now it's around $125/ton and Twiggy has been splurging precious boomer divvy money on green memery hopes & dreams
Wasn't it trading at like P/E 3 or 4 at those iron ore prices?
around \~7 or so at the time I believe atm with the current recent ore prices, higher operating costs most miners are experiencing & the money being dumped into FFI I wouldn't be surprised if the forward P/E ends up being much higher than many are thinking it currently is gonna be a lot of boomer crying if they cut divvies by too much, but maybe axeing all these staff is an attempt to prevent against having to do that 🤷♂️ feel like the "China re-opening bandwagon" assumed ore prices would spike back up, but they really haven't