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Apparently I'm not very good at this whole investing thing, no it's not me, it must be the ~~children~~ market
Thank you ASN, what a day!
Im thinking if its an amount that gets the biggest swinging dick excited its gotta be something special!! Congrats on the win (helps offset the PLS fomo!)
More than the average yearly wage rise for you today ?
You know it
Up 0.24%. Take that Mr Lowe.
Actually done work today, missed all the drama
Absolutely fucking scammed
I said here a little while back i liked AX1 a lot, good trading update today. One day I'll pull the trigger on one of these and that'll be the one im way off on for sure.
Cmon RNU, youve got that 0.275 in ya mate!!!!
Manifesting SYA goes into this public holiday at .28 you dirty dirty dog! Cmon 📈
Awww man. You fucking jinxed us!!!🤔🤣
Come on Barry. Keep me green
I am a retard...cancelled my buy order this morning for WR1 at 1.85 and buying now at 2.23.... fk me
Still wait on a ton of assays from Adina and Cancet. We’re only getting warmed up.
Still cheap.. look at the long term upside.. hope you got in today as it will fly on Friday imo :)
Number in ticker myth in absolute shambles right now.
Z1P did leave the party
HOLY FUCK HOLY FUCK HOLY FUCK
Told me not to fomo into WR1 then post this shit. I’m rattled to the core.
FOMO would have had you entering between $2.15-$2.20 that morning, which with the information at the time looked silly
Is only 15% of my pf, but fuck me what a finish to the day.
I am not ashamed to say that WR1 is over 68% of my portfolio. I am ashamed to say it's because the rest of my portfolio are dogs...
Hope you're celebrating tonight mate.
How goods that!!
The timing was absolute insanity.
congrats, looks like it could go much higher here.
Which stock you 2 talking about?
And to think the market doesn’t even know this announcement as it was only 1.5hr prior to closing.. the market will soak this in today tomorrow and it should continue to fly on Friday! Upside is enormous!!
LETS FUCKEN GOOOOO
So what... means they are sitting on possibly a way bigger resource than they thought?
- Previously the pegs were 335m deep
- Width goes all the way from near 50m to something closer towards 15-20m. Let's aim for 30m average true width
- The strike could be contiguous with a gravity low that is 1600m long
1600 x 30 x 335 x 2.7 = 43Mt **and** it's open at depth and along strike still. And this is just for Adina. You're potentially talking about a single project that is worth as much as GL1
That 1600m long gravity low is the shiznitz. I expect big money to try and keep the price low as they can by selling into retail strength between news flow but on each announcement - this stock rocks. imo.
Would love to know how much you hold
Soon to be Lambo weighting
so if I buy on market open and don't make money I can come and collect my refund?
that Canada region really is a Lithium miners wet dream huh
Its my wet dream.
ASM is ticking up again today, aint no WR1, but getting close to green 🤞
ZIP on the other hand.......
And just like that I’m up over 20% on LLL. Damn shame my 0.54 top up didn’t go through earlier in the week.
Would be good if some of my speccies could moon like the price of potato chips
Fucking Kettle @ $6 - literally insulting people.
Fuck you Chaz! This whole nsw potato thing screams you
Pure justification for shoplifting ,I hold no WES
I’m outraged 2L Pepsi costs $3
$3? Thinks it all Coca Cola all of a sudden. Bitch please, LA ice is laughing right now
Outraged huh ? Hope the fuckers keep off your lawn !
A dingo ate my stocks. Don’t send me to jail
Omg fuck off CPI. Straight up ruining shit.
So bought MAY yesterday & instantly almost, the dog plummets....
Can you warn us before you purchase next time
I thought it was because I bought 😂
Oh I thought it was me
You sound surprised?
BOT, keep a tab on this retards buys & sells.
I could give WR1 a go Friday, test the theory...
You’re playing with other people’s livelihoods
A tragically funny statement
Anyone know QGL's price to takeover LML?
I looked and looked but cant see anything but the sept 22 annc saying 40:1 script offer.
Anyone else know?
Thanks, I looked briefly and couldn't find anything
I do love myself a bit of enrichment - good pickup for OKR
Big big news.. surprised to see it this late in arvo!! progressing well.. we should see bigger gains come Friday!
Nice surprise wtf!??
Someone riddle this for me:
On Stake & Commsec, NMT is $0.905, however on Stake it’s +4.02%, but on Commsec it’s +2.84%
Probably ASX and CXA just messing with the data. Not sure if stake uses asx or cxa if it uses cxa it could have closed 2 pips down while asx closed 1 pip down so there's what appears to be a slight discrepancy with daily increases based of previous closing price.
One might be using previous day close while the other using same day open?
SW shows the same as Commsec. Lesson: fuck Stake.
Just started on Stake but it lags so is it maybe that?
Another analogy where we are reminded that diversification is important.
ASN. GLN. LKE. AGY. Just reviewing my catalyst notes about possible entry points for some of the brines.
I've been caught out by the reaction to ASN's announced [drilling campaign](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02475961-6A1072404?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4) today. Due to Yule bureaucratic delays, I thought permits would arrive no earlier than Feb, and be accompanied by slight exit liquidity pump in response. Instead, it's done 20%. In fairness, ASN has been stomped recently. I had the actual sell-the-news catalyst arriving June quarter, so just trying to confirm that based on last year's action:
* [March 28 to April 1 drilling commenced](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02503355-6A1083646?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)
* [May 23 depth of 2,334m reached](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02523722-6A1092524?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)
* [June 2 brine sample taken](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02527792-6A1094147?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)
* [July 11 results delivered](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02540543-6A1099083?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)
Without investigating in too much detail, it looks like they're going to a similar depth (Mississippian layer) as before. After instalment of drill pads, it looks like drilling will commence in March, which corresponds to the first bullet point above.
So I might be slightly off with my Q2 catalyst prediction, as it theoretically can't come earlier than the final 2 weeks of June.
Might wait for spot prices to find some direction and *possibly* pick this one up at the start of Q2.
GLN is on my watchlist to potentially make an entry next month, but I have an uncomfortable feeling they might replicate ASN's DFS mistake, which is not facilitating a JV. I've spoken about it at length before, but inflating CAPEXs mean these companies need to provide sufficient scale to attract a partner, as INR did. It's easy to say "the resource is there", but they really need something on paper for potential JV partners to conduct DD on. I know that Ioneer only gave an initial 22ktpa, but Sibanye-Stillwater probably felt the mirrored basin was going to provide enough ammunition (naively nor not).
ASN only did 10ktpa. It had to be at least 20ktpa, and they had the resource to support it. I really believe they'll need to update that study prior to funding. 40tkpa is better.
GLN is the same. I'm worried about lack of clarity about the scale of Hombre Muerto West, because I now think that 20ktpa will head towards a US$600m CAPEX. They've still got the chloride option, but that's also looking slightly out of reach. Want to see that addressed. I'm still vacillating over when a potential entry point might be optimal based on DFS delays with other projects.
In addition to GLN, LTR's escalation has also raised concerns about LKE & AGY. I'd almost argue LKE's DFS delay is a *good thing*. Because when you look at their catalysts between now and 2027, you've got:
2. possible economical proof of concept
3. possible debt funding
4. possible prepayment/other support
5. possible impressive results at other tenements
It would be nice to get (5) during the next 5 months to gain some momentum.
(1) is going to provide a bit of SP support over the next 6 months. The issue is that I now expect a 50ktpa CAPEX closer to AU$2b (LKE share AU$1.5b), which will also affect the likelihood of (3). Given the 2020 PFS indicated US$550m, I don't know how the market would react to tripling that, even if it corresponds to a doubling in production. I think QPM used a similar rationale recently, and the market didn't appreciate it.
AGY is in a reasonable situation, despite the Argentinian govt just milling about on permits. Presumably they'll realise the best way to rescue an imploding economy is to generate business, an epiphany that'll hopefully come soon.
But I'm going to have to throw my previous 10ktpa estimates out the window and update them from AU$240m to....$300m? Higher? Not sure. They've already got infrastructure in place.
One complication is that their updated feasibility study & drilling should be tied together, which may mean their funding is too. Perhaps financiers are wanting to see something concrete there, so an official announcement about drilling results may foreshadow progress in the other 2 areas.
Overriding all of that waffle, the direction of spot prices will probably prove equally influential in the near term.
Apparently according to AFR AGY has a deck going around for financing in Feb, but you know... grain of salt. I suspect financing won't be an issue for them assuming they prove production in coming months.
Good find, totally missed that.
Swyfty looking at GLN? I might have to break open the piggy bank or sell the rolex.
Extremely patchy CNY spot prices moseyed down 2% again this week, so I might need that security blanket back before I'm game to take too many gambles on 2027 producers...
Chinese New Year holiday lasts a week. Full throttle from next week.
WR1 with the afternoon delight.
Yes what a delightful surprise!!
VAS has over taken VGS…
Aussie Aussie Aussie!!
Sorry that time of the year to feel Patriotic
WR1 dropped an update.
Yas!! Big news!! Surprised to see an Ann come this late!! This should fly hard on Friday
I didn’t doubt them for a second 👀
Got a ban bet from December that they will close at => 2.1 today.
The cowboy gods are alive and well.
Far out. How did you know? If was a guess - giz another one?
Touchdown with 0.00 on the clock!
Nicely done mate!! Should see this pick up big on Friday.. let’s go!!!
What am I missing with AGY? Still hovering around 60C even though they’re about to reach production.
Unless I’m misreading they’re expecting higher supply than PLS?
What price do you think it should be?
I think PLS Are planning on paying dividends in 2023 aswell ?
Will SYA get past 28c? who knows im going to the pub
[Microsoft delivers a reality check for bulls](https://12ft.io/proxy?&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fchanticleer%2Fmicrosoft-delivers-a-reality-check-for-bulls-20230125-p5cfbw)
Balls deep in SNAS?
I moved 10% of my portfolio to SNAS and BBOZ today.
Let me ruminate on that.
WESTPAC: WE NOW FORECAST THE RBNZ TO RAISE THE CASH RATE BY 50BPS IN FEBRUARY.
Oh how things change.
No one knows shit about fuck
Aint this a truth becoming clearer by the day. Even the experts dont seem much better than us retards.
The last 12 months really have shown that anyone claiming to know something as a certainty is only certain of one thing, being wrong. The ones who suggest different paths are the ones who are value.
I know something - its all orchestrated.
AZL really strip teasing all the HC Kings with an impending BLM approval
BLM approval? What's that? This is the first I'm hearing of such a thing.
Day 1 of hearing such a thing
Is LBY a good bye?
This is not asx, but relevant for Australia considering the big fuck-off coal mine Adani are planning in QLD.
Hindenburg Research, one of the most well known shortseller firms, has just published a [scathing investigation into Adani's business practices.](https://hindenburgresearch.com/?p=2376)
>Our research involved speaking with dozens of individuals, including former senior executives of the Adani Group, reviewing thousands of documents, and conducting diligence site visits in almost half a dozen countries.
>Even if you ignore the findings of our investigation and take the financials of Adani Group at face value, its 7 key listed companies have 85% downside purely on a fundamental basis owing to sky-high valuations.
>Key listed Adani companies have also taken on substantial debt, including pledging shares of their inflated stock for loans, putting the entire group on precarious financial footing. 5 of 7 key listed companies have reported ‘current ratios’ below 1, indicating near-term liquidity pressure.
>The group’s very top ranks and 8 of 22 key leaders are Adani family members, a dynamic that places control of the group’s financials and key decisions in the hands of a few. A former executive described the Adani Group as “a family business.”
>The Adani Group has previously been the focus of 4 major government fraud investigations which have alleged money laundering, theft of taxpayer funds and corruption, totaling an estimated U.S. $17 billion. Adani family members allegedly cooperated to create offshore shell entities in tax-haven jurisdictions like Mauritius, the UAE, and Caribbean Islands, generating forged import/export documentation in an apparent effort to generate fake or illegitimate turnover and to siphon money from the listed companies.
>Gautam Adani’s younger brother, Rajesh Adani, was accused by the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of playing a central role in a diamond trading import/export scheme around 2004-2005. The alleged scheme involved the use of offshore shell entities to generate artificial turnover. Rajesh was arrested at least twice over separate allegations of forgery and tax fraud. He was subsequently promoted to serve as Managing Director of Adani Group.
>Gautam Adani’s brother-in-law, Samir Vora, was accused by the DRI of being a ringleader of the same diamond trading scam and of repeatedly making false statements to regulators. He was subsequently promoted to Executive Director of the critical Adani Australia division.
In this all you forget One thing Adani is Friend of India's PM Modi. You Can say they are in this together from the time when Modi is nothing. Modi give him all public companies in cheap price and made him no.2 in the world.
Short a company, create a negative report, profit.
Sounds financially great, but i don't know if it means much for validity of their claims.
There is definitely an incentive for them to tank Adani SP (for which ever companies are listed - i haven't checked), however any false information opens them up to significant lawsuits for libel. So shortsellers in general have to be very careful about what sort of claims they make, and ensure they are legally defensible. Hindenburg is probably the most competent short seller in the world, you just have to look at the aftermath of their report on Nikola (CEO resigned, arrested by FBI) to see how effective their research can be
Ahh I remember reading that report right here when it came out. That group huh?
Reverse Next investors without free shares, love it.
This is essentially Hinderburgs business model.
Sounds smart. If they have the media power I'd be bullish.
Never personally heard of them though
Adani is a privately owned company, how's this mob shorting them?
Hindenburg Research said on Wednesday it holds short positions in Adani Group companies through U.S.-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivative instruments, sending shares of companies in the Indian conglomerate sliding.
I didn't look into, just assumed the context of Hindenburg being a short selling firm was relevant to the company being discussed.
Keep ripping LLL.
Are you from the future?!?!
My dog stock just had a fuck load of on-market buying action and I am rock-hard. It's probably nothing because its like $75k, but a man can dream that there is a knower out there.
All it needs is to grab the attention of some rocket chasing tards and it could explode.
Its RNT... It's a pretty big dog, but it's got Bevan Slattery with a lot of money in it, a super low market cap, and a very scalable product. It's literally the definition of extremely high-risk high-reward speculation.
Bevan bought in
He actually bought more in January, and just last month.
I'll have a look in March. FameLuck isn't buying anything in Jan or Feb until his current dogs are sold.
That cheeky slut PLS going on another nice run
Is there a chart like the market psychology or lassonde curve one but for the macro retard "this spike won't last (lasts) -> starting to think this might stay higher for longer (peaks) -> I don't see how this can ever go back down (declines)" cycle?
Edit: Thinking about it it's probably just the psychology of a bubble one but way more snooty
Well the ASX has recovered back to -0.21%, so its shrugging off CPI pretty well.
Also, fuck SYA, of course that shit cunt of a stock does nothing for months and literally moons the moment I ditch it. I sold ADH a few days ago, so if anyone wants to make money that one is surely going to moon next. Fuckers.
Damn I thought you only partially sold off sya.. I’ve Sold WR1, HWK and AGY in their baby stages. I know of this disgusting constipating pain.
I only had a little bit, had traded SYA to mediocre success but was holding a small amount for a long time, when it dropped to 17c and recovered to 23c I was green and figured I should just ditch it and if it goes lower pick it up. I didn't think it was possible to get this close to 30c again with these lithium prices, shorts this high and this much dilution.
AGY I sold for about 61.5c average in Dec (sold at a few different points) considered picking it up again around 50c or under, but missed the boat because it recovered so fast, like a matter of a day. It hurts less though because I did make ok money with a 48c buyin and the lithium price got pretty low. I am surprised they are pushing this high again with their production now in H2, but if they stabilize around 500k CNY I think 80c is probably isn't crazy with 10ktpa approval.
Luckily so far haven't had any full moons that I have sold... yet
Thanks for your sacrifice mate!🍻
I live to give
I think inflation has peaked, explanation for the high numbers is due to floods and avian flu causing crops/potato and eggs/chicken to increase in price rather than inflation.
Add to that companies reporting record sales and revenues, we have 1-2 more rate hikes before the market/general public change their opinion.
"The most significant price rises were Domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+13.3%), Electricity (+8.6%), International holiday travel and accommodation (+7.6%) and New dwelling purchase by owner occupiers (+1.7%)." Food price fluctuations are irrelevant, they're volatile which is why they aren't included in the trimmed mean CPI, which is the relevant number to be looking at.
Goods inflation hasn't decreased. Services inflation has increased again. Rental still going up. Fuel remains flat. Discretionary spending is up again, retail demand showing no signs of slowing down. Domestic travel and accommodation up. Insurance and financial services up.
The only thing that has meaningfully come down is new dwelling starts.
There isn't a lot of data to suggest core inflation has peaked at all. There's so much pent up demand for travel that it won't slow down any time soon, the rental crisis is only going to get worse with record immigration, insurance is increasing after multiple natural disasters. Apparently women keep buying clothes (according to the ATO). Companies reporting record sales and revenues is supporting more inflation, not less.
>There isn't a lot of data to suggest core inflation has peaked at all. There's so much pent up demand for travel that it won't slow down any time soon
case for Flight Centre, Webjet and Qantas
So what you are saying is, women buying clothing and Australian's asking for more pay after record revenues are to blame for inflation. I knew it! - Lowe probably
Wage growth in Australia has been fucked for ages.
Hordes of boomers retiring early and going travelling combined with a whole generation priced out of the housing market going travelling instead probably contributing more.
I have a detailed tiny sample size of 3 sets of boomers, but 2 of them are planning on spending lots of money this year. Their friends are all buying cars, they are going on trips together, some just retired at 60.
My wife works in ED, there used to be an issue where they would train new consultants but you would have to wait for them to retire to get a job. Now a bunch are retiring and they are short like 12 consultants, same with a few other departments, and its about to get worse just in her hospital. Mostly boomers, some younger just going to go part time/locum all planning on seachanges, holidays and spending their money.
It's actually a semi-legitimate issue, same thing has been seen in the US [noted back in 2021] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/10/01/baby-boomers-are-leaving-the-workforce-to-live-their-best-lives-in-a-silver-tsunami-great-retirement-trend/?sh=63054276260b) and I can't really blame them for doing it or anything - but its something we have to contend with as a nation.
My sample size is a little larger. I live in a small town in regional VIC, wife and I are youngest by a long shot. Brand new cars and caravans everywhere, local goss is always of someone off galavanting around the world, MIL about to take off for 3-4 months.
Was just at a bucks party on the weekend, my mate said they’ve given up buying a house and going travelling for 3 months instead. Neighbours that got married on Saturday just jetted off for 6 weeks.
I live in Melbourne and feel it. I know a friend a colleague that both moved to queensland to escape it. However this prices out the locals living there because prices shot up over the last 2 years with everyone moving. Remote work allows people to do this, I feel bad for locals and anyone struggling to find reasonable priced housing (myself included!)
I can vouch for this - I live in Qld and the last yr or so most properties have been bought by Victorians and some Overseas - a lot of properties sold without the buyer actually coming here and looking. ffs. Boomers are cashed up and spending. The next generation behind getting the assets left behind. Huuuge change in wealth for many many aussies over the last few years. More to come.
Not to be that guy, but fruits and veg actually reduced in price in the quarter. Food and non-alcohol rose 0.9% QoQ, compared to 9.2% YoY, so less of an impact than in previous quarters.
That said, 100% that some companies are taking the piss now - we have a lot of anti-competitive behaviors in Australia and it may just take a sharp decrease in demand to get them to stop taking the piss.
Copper price doesn't care about stupid little Aussie inflation numbers, back to $4.27 and hopefully $4.3 and onwards!
Unfortunately all my ASX stocks, including Cu, do, and everything is red...
It appears my time to join the banned lands has come.
WR1 has forsaken me.
The cowboy Gods are ded.
Day off tomorrow, announcement Friday and $2.50+
“Missed it by THAT much”
talk about pausing interest rate rises has been so fucking premature, no idea why people feel the RBA wouldn't keep at least doing a few more minor hikes for a while yet
stonks with weak profitability models still to underperform for the forseeable future imo
>talk about pausing interest rate rises has been so fucking premature
more premature than your ejaculation. And that's *very* premature, so that's a cause for concern.
RBA is doing a fully sick burn out and is just pumping the brakes now as it straightens the car after laying the rubber.
Any thoughts on Toyota having the ability to make hydrogen a viable battery EV alternative market?
Toyota - Next Kodak
That is funny as fuk. Hydrogen is the smallest atom that exists. Just like a balloon goes down over several days because the air molecules find a way out thru the big holes in the rubber, hydrogen cant be contained for any great length of time as a gas. Only under pressure as a liquid. To do that costs big money and actually having untrained retards try to fill their hydrogen tank on the old suv is gonna be funnier. imo.
My thoughts are ... I don't want to drive around in a hydrogen powered vehicle because it might explode, yes I'm probably stupid but so are most car buyers
Yeah, hard to shake that stigma.
Still, we're already powered by an explosive combustible, and have you seen the lithium battery fires on Tesla's? Can't even put them out.
A decent scare tactic in marketing against lithium fires might help. Marketing would cost more than the cars though...
If anyone can do it, then it would be Toyota and I’m not yet convinced that alternatives aren’t on the near term horizon for EV’s.
Not going to happen. The future is battery electric for personal transport. So much more efficient than hydrogen.
Sometimes i feel the world has become 'progressive' enough that a big documentary about the true costs environmental costs of EV cars could honestly have a decent impact if an alternative capitalised at the right time.
But yeah seems unlikely.
Yer - Imagine doing one where they cover how oil is pumped outta the ground and transported and refined and transported to servos so we can put it in the fuel tank for transport at less than 30% efficiency at the car. Lmfao. Big money is being spent to stop any competition to big oil. Including - recession, higher int rates to prevent cap investment, MSM bs about dangerous batts, How electricity grid wont handle it. Faaaaaaaaark me. The big money with vested interests.
Toyota is dreaming. The sooner they work this out and start focusing on boring and reliable EVs the better.
$BAS opened at 0.145, went to 0.14, and now it is 0.18. I feel like it's gonna get dumped as soon as the good news is out.
When we expecting news on BAS for the uninformed (me)?
I have no idea. I just have it on my watchlist.
Sell the news is always a big thing. If you don't care for the CGT discount it often seems worthwhile to sell the news then buy in lower with profits - assuming the news isn't full of surprises.
ASN's finally got a bit of life in her
I should have warned you all I was about to dump some coin into may 🤡🤡
Thinking of MAY as it had a good announcement yesterday but today dropped like a stone today.
I will dig my way up.
Wait, i can find the gif .
Edit: [hmm it's not actually how i remember the scene](https://ibb.co/pr83nVh)
I heard recently that economists have picked 7 of the last 3 recessions.
Nice little announcement by AVL making it my only green in a sea of red and grey.
Upside to the CPI data: bumping up my WBT holdings by 25%
Surely that can't still be going up?
Wait'll they actually deliver a commercial order of product
I'll be watching. Won't buy though as it would ruin it for you
My optimistic bull case for 2023:
After being locked up for two years, everyone fucken YOLO’d on travel, going out and buying houses and went full blown treat-yo-self during the holidays. Who gives a fuck about inflation.
This year will see everyone’s spending comedown kick in and things will tighten up. May be some short term pain but the most forecast recession will be a half chub at best and by mid year we’ll be on like donkey kong.
She’ll be right mate.
A few rate increases, and a few job losses and you'll see demand tank and I think it will turn pretty quick. Australia is pretty woeful for business competition and companies definitely take the piss with price rises (cough, Qantas, cough)
There is a fair bit of price gouging happening in Qantas, Colesworth and alike, so the moment demand drops we'll see discounts and hopefully that will address some of this.
To add to this, all the numpties who leveraged to their sack are gonna get rolled when their 2% fixed terms end soon, and if they aren’t in distress they sure as shit won’t be buying anything other than essentials.
Bullish on mi goreng.
You're not wrong. But here's the bear case. I saw data (about 3-4 months ago) that suggested the wealthiest (top 20%) have basically gone on colossal shopping sprees on property due to low interest rates + large cash injection from the government. While the rest of society has basically done similarly, but on consumer goods. This makes curbing property inflation harder because the wealthiest have far deeper pockets to cushion the blow even if they re-drew on old loans.
The good news is that the biggest inflation contributor right now is travel, accommodation, and leisure activities. Which is alrightish inflation to have, relatively speaking, because it's discretionary spending.
Electricity is poo poo and very bad, but this is a structural issue due to the Ukraine war and other global factors. Increasing interest rates won't fix the global demand for coal, oil, and gas. It'll make financing new projects in these sectors harder :((
Overall, I think it's a mixed bag. I think now that we've had a year of data it's fair to say that they point towards slightly more towards the structural inflation hypothesis due to global factors rather than money supply issues.
Went and booked a three month YOLO holiday to Europe to anecdotally support your bull thesis.
Shit, that's genuine confirmation.
Bullish on travel
Falling IMU is crumbing pass 15c
I'm down 39.51% on it
In a sea of red deep yella stands tall
So far I've taken profits on AKE and BHP, im a feeling a bit bear-curious atm.
If you can sell the whole portfolio during January and February, then hold cash till mid-
April, you'll be a absolutely killing it.
However holding cash while things go green around you is a very difficult task.
Personal trading history has seen predictable pumps in January in February, with declines in March leading to a decent dump that seems to bottom out in April before a decent bounce.
April through June seem to be amazing buy times.
Might only be the speccy market, and maybe the last 3 years have been unique, but that's all my knowledge
2003 bottom of bear market was 12 april.
I am *very* nervous about my -25% IHL holding.
Nah she'll be right.. 😶
Not sure how to feel about those kinds of stocks anymore.. might be more progressive than an Australian listed company should be.