Another day of watching the paper gains go up and then sink into red.
\-0.62%
ASM had a positive run, no news I could find, VML also holding green on some decent volume, and then there was ZIP, seemed to have a slight recovery towards close so maybe more to run once the quarterly pump/dump settles down.
Dear Downvoter,
I am sincerely sorry that my statement somehow added insult to your injuries. I am sure you will have a green day soon. Have faith and never give up. God bless, xoxo, etc
Was having a great day, everything green, VML alone looking to give me a couple grand for the day.
Blamo - Barry drags me down to 0.5%. A pip up on EXR, and a half pip down on pwn.
š„±
PLS & WBT $5 party is pumpin'
Dale is manning the BBQ and Coby has just chucked his phone on the aux cable and is blasting some Israeli techno. I think I just saw Dadi walk upstairs with two women and that new PLS project director just did a backflip into the pool.
Life is good.
I did that back on the original run up to 5.50. I sort of regret it to an extent, but profits are profit.
I also didn't buy back in as it went down. I bought my akey brakey heart though.
More like FMG. Freak athlete (freak mining territory) and a rich daddy (very rich daddy). A fan of middle eastern and chinese buttholes (a fan of middle eastern and chinese buttholrs). Pretends to give a shit about other players (pretends to give a shit about the environment). Occassional troll (Labor party 3rd generation shill). Hoghly educated (has a bought and paid for phd).
Working straya day so I'm punting a paycheck's worth into MAY. I'm a bit cut since I missed the 10% jump on it today with the parcel I set up to buy last night, oath.
Solomon Lew single-handedly held that share price up through 2022.
That said... if those results they are expecting come through, those half-yearly profits will alone be higher than any full-year result since 2014. Which is fucking wild.
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let's check maybe 12-8b range for companies with big retail holder involvement:
Qantas is $12b with $2.5b debt, but they are making amazing profits at the moment and just did a share buyback... They're up 50% in a matter of months though, so there's room for a retrace.
PLS is $12b with $2.2m cash, P/E of about 4 or 5, I don't see how they can go at PLS... but you never know.
TWE is boomer DW8, trading on fairly high P/E, paying suspiciously high divvy, it could be these guys considering they do service China and jcap know their shit about the Chinese economy.
YAL I think would be brave considering how much they make... they'd have to have balls of steel.
TPG another good target, they are a bit weak, no momentum, not making much money, increased competition, divvy higher than earnings, looking a bit flat... I wouldn't be surprised if it was them.
AKE probably a bit too low MC, but similar situation to PLS.
You have WHC, Seek and Carsales all in the 8b range, they might be a bit too far off the 10b mark to be considered.
My pick of these is TWE or TPG... they have market caps of 10b and 9.5b respectively, and are most fundamentally flawed in terms of valuation. If it's some US or overseas company then it could be anyone.
They've specifically said it's a company they claim is round-tripping cash on their accounting, hard to believe it's anyone selling a hot commodity like coal or lithium (why would you bother?). Though not like it's unusual for J Cap to get something completely wrong anyway.
If that's the case then it might lean more towards TWE than TPG, as TPG earnings are probably slightly more straightforward, and all contained in Australia.
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Last check with him had him high 80's, though being a bit flat while I gained momentum with green.
I'd guess we're about neck and neck at 90k-93k.
I'm hoping for 100 this month, and I'm pretty sure if i hit it particular love with too.
Just invested in about 70 iPhone cases. Guaranteed to provide more return than my investment in ZIP. I actually used ZIP to pay for them too so I donāt need to actually outlay any money! š¤” DM me if you want an iPhone case for cheap and Iāll see if I have one š²
Positions: Long on iPhone cases
Update: just bought 2 coffee machines.
Positions: 2 Coffee machines and iPhone cases
Repercussions for abandoning ZIP account?
Last I heard in America, druggies were doing it to afterpay buying Lego and selling for crack cash, and keeping their knees without issue.
Here's some recent comments on gas supply in Europe. The European energy crisis coming into Winter last year was one of the reasons for the price surges of gas and coal, so perhaps somewhat relevant:
***An unusually mild winter so far, gas storage at almost full capacity*** *and a desperate scramble by the Europeans to secure LNG, virtually regardless of price, has ā with measures to reduce consumption ā blunted the political and economic threats posed to Europe by its willingness to continue supporting Ukraine and its former reliance on Russian gas.*
***Gas prices in Europe, which soared in the aftermath of the invasion, are now back to pre-invasion levels, and the Europeans are expressing confidence that, not only will they get through this northern winter without an energy crisis-inspired meltdown of their economies but they will be in a good starting position for winter 2024.***
From [here](https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/crude-reality-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-having-a-big-effect-20230111-p5cbqd.html).
I think this sub got [big swinging dicks](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/10jqgo4/united_states_ranks_60th_in_the_world_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) all wrong
MAY up 9% on the day atm was 14% at one point and this announcement was just saying permits are done / a timetable. Imagine the pump in 4-6 weeks time if the appraisal goes well š„ It's either a lambo or mi Goreng about to turn into its either a double storey house and lambo or mi Goreng š
I think confirming no delays in approvals and permits or materials is the main thing. This will now spud in March with very little able to get in the way. Always buy 6-8 weeks prior to any significant so Iād expect the slow climb to come back in the next couple weeks
Hi 30s to low 40s as thatās gonna be $800/900 million MC. Love to see it get to $1 billion but the graphite crunch doesnāt seem as hot as the lithium one.
As a previous holder during the 20-30c rise at the end of last year, Iām still interested but not looking to buy at these prices. It seems to rise pretty dramatically in the weeks prior to a key announcement so catching that uptrend would be the play I think. Iām not keeping up to date with announcements, but it doesnāt look like it wants to break 30c atm, so buying at 27c doesnāt present much upside, especially noting how quickly the price has dropped in the past. Just my 2c.
Agree, but my point is that if a major (and hopefully positive) update isnāt expected soon, it could equally fall back to 20-25c, which is when Iād be interested to buy back in.
Finally sold QAN. My first ever share purchase. Felt sad to say goodbye but if i've learnt anything over 2 years is that you cannot get attaches to a stock if you want to make profit
I impulse buy MGH (Maas Group Holdings),
Small Cap, construction, mostly civil i think, but not big project manager, tyring to be vertically integrated, expected growth, GS buy recommendation (70% upside)
SYA's market cap makes the least IMO considering their near-term production profit is going to be hampered by their PLL deal.
That said, they are expansionists and long term are looking to grow mining and their plant, so I view it as a more speculative play and if you get in cheap I like it long term for that. The Moblan PFS is probably a sell the news play, but SYA has a massive cult following so there's a few fundamentals that probably don't track.
I stupidly sold out my tiny parcel at 23c after its recovery from 17c for basically breakeven, because it had done nothing for so long, there were a bunch of shorts just like CXO and was still around that 22c... I really was just impatient and outsmarted myself... ugh
Traders frequently abandon projects as they move into production, because they inevitably go through teething issues. CXO is a classic example, with their DMS plant being pushed back up to 6 months (and that's quite a simple beneficiation process compared to most projects). Interestingly, the market hasn't been perturbed by AGY's slowness, so that may be due to the 10ktpa permit/funding catalyst.
Luckily, SYA's plant is already built (just being refurbished), so the big risk is probably bad recovery rates (output), poor initial grades, delays, etc.
Without ore from Authier, the recovery rates at NAL may be terrible, a *problem which may not become apparent until the first quarterly, fortunately*. Ideally, they'll commission in April, so they don't need to release any of that potentially negative info during in the March quarterly.
IMO, it'd be ideal if SYA isn't valued as a producer, because they'll struggle to make more than \~AU$25m NPAT this year. First shipment targeted for July (takes a bit to ramp up).
You don't want them operating on P/E ratios experienced by PLS & AKE.
Catalysts:
* Moblan PFS due June quarter
* Moblan DFS due Dec quarter
* Authier BAPE due Dec quarter or later
* Moblan drill results?
* left field financial support from the CAN govt?
* other debt funding?
It was a great trade from 17c to 25c recently, but you can see the issue facing them is that all significant catalysts are due after commissioning. You'll need to weigh the risks of holding into production versus those catalysts.
Spodumene processing is much harder than products like iron ore and coal.
Some issues:
* recovery rates way lower than test work suggested
* spodumene grade lower than test work
* costs much higher than studies predicted
* impurities
* tweaks that require parts of plant to shut down
I'd need to go back through announcements, but from memory it took PLS 6 months to get their refurbed Ngungaju plant firing due to the flotation challenges, despite all their expertise.
NAL includes flotation.
Mr\_X2017 did a great post a few months ago outlining PLS's path into production a number of years ago, but I forgot to bookmark it (begins around June 2018).
AJM's test work said they'd recover 80%, and they only achieved 65% in actuality.
SYA report up to 100k tpa of Li hydroxide. Taking into account the likelihood of challenges to scale up production like PLS et al, even at 70% of forecast, that roughly equates to $5B+ at current LiOH price. Also applying similar production costs of their competitors, I think the MC is under valued. The unknown is the timeframe obviously.
Or am I just fully ReGaRdEd?
The good news is that it looks like PLL will commit to SYA's goal of LCE from 2026 or later. Carbonate is looking the safer option.
So from La Corne (NAL), SYA hope to generate 135,000tpa of 6% spod (75% ownership). That roughly equates to 18,000tpa of LCE.
From Moblan, SYA aims for 120,000tpa of spod (60% ownership), which is roughly 16,000tpa of LCE. Might be achievable by 2029 depending on funding?
Overall, SYA *current* ambition is 34ktpa of lithium hydroxide/carbonate by the end of the decade. Would need no less than AU$1.2b of funding, preferably debt.
So assuming the entire LCE production of SYA was running smoothly in time for full output in 2030, and LCE price was US$25k/t, they'd tentatively make about AU$400-450m NPAT.
Using a P/E of 15 for a chemicals processing company, puts them at a valuation of \~AU$6b by 2030.
That's a compounding gain of approximately 17% pa, assuming everything was funded from debt, rather than dilution.
I think the index achieves an average of \~9% pa once dividends are factored in.
Of course, the price of lithium will vary that outcome massively.
Well over $1B. It's gotta be close to $1.4-1.5B. huge deposit though with good metallurgy. Macquarie think 136Mt just on CV5 alone. So realistically 5 years down the track they could be sitting on 300-400Mt - which would rival the biggest deposits in Australia. Environmental approvals are the biggest risk, outside of valuation side, even ignoring the lakes. Canada is notoriously slow and tough on explorers (both bad and good).
DRO is fucking popping off this month
Looks like XTE has some catching up to do.
Nice LLL gains today. I hope to see the momentum continue.
Bought a real clifford thinking it was the bottom then it dropped another 10% Nice.
Zip?
Nah some dogshit I am writing an extremely slow DD on
LLL something decent yeww roawr
Smashed it today, +0.01% KFC bucket is on me
Prob still 10k for you š
Hahah I wish, that would be a $100m portfolio
One day š„¹
Beat the bank - beat ausfinance. Pure win
https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/752897 Because you deserve it playa š
Surely thatās a shop? Maybe not Mt Gambier or Melton but maybe Mossman KFC š
PLS, AKE and IGO to the moon. Berkshire approved.
I know this is actually Warren Buffett because it says "Real" at the beginning. Welcome to ASX_Bets were you our lucky 100,000th?
Indeed son. I only deal in large numbers. Berkshire approved.
Can't argue with those facts
Another day of watching the paper gains go up and then sink into red. \-0.62% ASM had a positive run, no news I could find, VML also holding green on some decent volume, and then there was ZIP, seemed to have a slight recovery towards close so maybe more to run once the quarterly pump/dump settles down.
*of course* IMU would be red when everything else in my PF is green
Dear Downvoter, I am sincerely sorry that my statement somehow added insult to your injuries. I am sure you will have a green day soon. Have faith and never give up. God bless, xoxo, etc
Half my gains cut down in the final hour. So that's how it's going to be eh?
Was having a great day, everything green, VML alone looking to give me a couple grand for the day. Blamo - Barry drags me down to 0.5%. A pip up on EXR, and a half pip down on pwn. š„±
VHY broke $70 today, which is close to an ATH. Wrong place to discuss it I know, but did not see that coming so soon into 2023
I'm disappointed in the XJO. Couldn't even crack 7500.
Reverse psychology???
Hol up, wait a minute. Is this some deep state false flag operation or are you actually bullish for a change?
Short term bullish. Very short term. Just until the summer ends.
Fuck me dead, Iām more bearish than a communist. End me.
Is Mitchuation the next Markma?
Iām way dumber
I wanna say... ... yes.
Youāre not my real dad
PLS & WBT $5 party is pumpin' Dale is manning the BBQ and Coby has just chucked his phone on the aux cable and is blasting some Israeli techno. I think I just saw Dadi walk upstairs with two women and that new PLS project director just did a backflip into the pool. Life is good.
That's my 6th straight days of red. Fukkkk
Lol. Outperformed by FameLuck. Get rekt.
What are you holding? Fucking lava ?
Mainly getting fuked by MRR and LMG
Averaged up on KFM today and it finished on a high. Should probably quit while Iām ahead.
With hindsight selling my 80-90 cent and $2 PLS shares wasnāt the best economic strategyā¦ Iāve still got a $4 package but not as many sharesā¦.
I bought at $2, sold at $4, then rebought at 3.90 and now I'm holding. I may be a dipshit
Yeh sold my $2 package over $5 so canāt complainā¦ but the ones under a dollarydoo hurt bad as I only sold them for $1.2ā¦.
VML pulling the good olā āgreen all day, finish greyā stitch up
Keep 'em wanting more
Oldest trick in the book
AKE absolutely pumping lately holy shit
... Looks like a couple people might break even soon
Tempted to free carry PLS
More units, move future divs!
I did that back on the original run up to 5.50. I sort of regret it to an extent, but profits are profit. I also didn't buy back in as it went down. I bought my akey brakey heart though.
Looking at your flair tells me it might be a great time to buy more š¤
Sweet Jesus, take profits whenever you can in these markets
this sounds like a true biotech boi
Are you advising him? On a financial matter? On the internet? I'm calling ASIC!
don't listen to this guy it isn't even at ATH
I literally hit ATL today š
that sounds like financial advice
any chance anyone wants to explain how citi mini's work (specifically qantas - 6 days of fuck ups cant be good amongst a worker revolt...)
Damn my PF today going green, red then slowly back grey.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Love this tennis_bets crossover episode. Is Medvedev like Zip in this analogy?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
More like FMG. Freak athlete (freak mining territory) and a rich daddy (very rich daddy). A fan of middle eastern and chinese buttholes (a fan of middle eastern and chinese buttholrs). Pretends to give a shit about other players (pretends to give a shit about the environment). Occassional troll (Labor party 3rd generation shill). Hoghly educated (has a bought and paid for phd).
I'm going to CYM buckets š©
Gonna be a one way ticket to tendie-town come production. Dividends are gonna be ultra tasty š¤¤
14.5 cents finally falls, and copper is going strong!
SYA been naughty as fuck 2023
A bit bipolar so who knows where it will land prior to any news.
I hope this green lasts I got a feeling it isnāt going too especially for retail stocks.
AEF going on a jog? At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the country, localized entirely within my portfolio?
Can I see it?
No.
BAS quarterly tomorrow ā¦ will be an interesting one! Sell off? Further rerate? My gassy mate BAS is stonk of the year so far š„³
How do you know this info???
Hehehe š¤
How do you know itās out tomorrow?
Working straya day so I'm punting a paycheck's worth into MAY. I'm a bit cut since I missed the 10% jump on it today with the parcel I set up to buy last night, oath.
Is this the Santa rally?
turn out Santa is Chinese
Worse, Santa's China bitch
what
Look at my 2020 watch listā¦ MYER wtf. 90c shit
Solomon Lew single-handedly held that share price up through 2022. That said... if those results they are expecting come through, those half-yearly profits will alone be higher than any full-year result since 2014. Which is fucking wild.
The turnaround since covid has been nuts
Myer is Queen BECKY, all other BECKYs walk in her almighty shadow. I wish I held.
thoughts on buying 88E and hope it repeats its annual cycle?
Bullish. Still an NI flog yeah?
You've got nothing to lose. Money and self respect don't count.
thoughts on square_rough_9772
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
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u/WowVeryJosh How's that ban bet going for today? Downramping ass bish
Bro 23m volume and almost cycled through 12.5. fucking instos let me down the dogs
Mmm Mmm Mmm, Mei May or Min???
Fuck this has been a good few days for lithium. Have prices stabilized or something?
More growing belief that China reopening will put a floor under prices in the medium term.
J-Cap with the incoming takedown.
I would love them to massacre patriot. Bring it.
$10b MC, so won't be Patriot.
Nah ā¦.. 10B MCā¦ā¦.. maybe Oz Minerals or something.
let's check maybe 12-8b range for companies with big retail holder involvement: Qantas is $12b with $2.5b debt, but they are making amazing profits at the moment and just did a share buyback... They're up 50% in a matter of months though, so there's room for a retrace. PLS is $12b with $2.2m cash, P/E of about 4 or 5, I don't see how they can go at PLS... but you never know. TWE is boomer DW8, trading on fairly high P/E, paying suspiciously high divvy, it could be these guys considering they do service China and jcap know their shit about the Chinese economy. YAL I think would be brave considering how much they make... they'd have to have balls of steel. TPG another good target, they are a bit weak, no momentum, not making much money, increased competition, divvy higher than earnings, looking a bit flat... I wouldn't be surprised if it was them. AKE probably a bit too low MC, but similar situation to PLS. You have WHC, Seek and Carsales all in the 8b range, they might be a bit too far off the 10b mark to be considered. My pick of these is TWE or TPG... they have market caps of 10b and 9.5b respectively, and are most fundamentally flawed in terms of valuation. If it's some US or overseas company then it could be anyone.
If itās PLS BACK THE ššššš UP!
I like your options!! I could only think of one off the top of my head in that MC rangeā¦. Except WHC and PLS which are untouchable in my brain š
TWE would make sense, and they do have an excessively complicated balance sheet - but I think its a US company.
They've specifically said it's a company they claim is round-tripping cash on their accounting, hard to believe it's anyone selling a hot commodity like coal or lithium (why would you bother?). Though not like it's unusual for J Cap to get something completely wrong anyway.
If that's the case then it might lean more towards TWE than TPG, as TPG earnings are probably slightly more straightforward, and all contained in Australia.
LKE again?
Something with a $10b MC: US market
My guess is yes. Edit: actually, they said $10b market cap, so not LKE.
ASM š š
Up 17%! Is this my last chance to get recover 40% of my investment? š¤
\-20% down here, come one grey!
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Who was the whiteboard trader and how is that whiteboard looking?!
Haven't been doing much. Just watching it all go up. 80-86k year to date. Should do something with that whiteboard.
Last check with him had him high 80's, though being a bit flat while I gained momentum with green. I'd guess we're about neck and neck at 90k-93k. I'm hoping for 100 this month, and I'm pretty sure if i hit it particular love with too.
u/particular_love_8811
The guy who has 80k in BoQ?
That's ParticularLove-something. Also in iron ore.
XJO GO!
White knuckling it towards ATH's!
MEI yesterday ballistic, today hit the 10. Been playing yoyo, good for day traders
Letās go MLSā¦hopefully this can end on a positive note by close
Nice !!
Just invested in about 70 iPhone cases. Guaranteed to provide more return than my investment in ZIP. I actually used ZIP to pay for them too so I donāt need to actually outlay any money! š¤” DM me if you want an iPhone case for cheap and Iāll see if I have one š² Positions: Long on iPhone cases Update: just bought 2 coffee machines. Positions: 2 Coffee machines and iPhone cases
Repercussions for abandoning ZIP account? Last I heard in America, druggies were doing it to afterpay buying Lego and selling for crack cash, and keeping their knees without issue.
What happened to the coal story?
Here's some recent comments on gas supply in Europe. The European energy crisis coming into Winter last year was one of the reasons for the price surges of gas and coal, so perhaps somewhat relevant: ***An unusually mild winter so far, gas storage at almost full capacity*** *and a desperate scramble by the Europeans to secure LNG, virtually regardless of price, has ā with measures to reduce consumption ā blunted the political and economic threats posed to Europe by its willingness to continue supporting Ukraine and its former reliance on Russian gas.* ***Gas prices in Europe, which soared in the aftermath of the invasion, are now back to pre-invasion levels, and the Europeans are expressing confidence that, not only will they get through this northern winter without an energy crisis-inspired meltdown of their economies but they will be in a good starting position for winter 2024.*** From [here](https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/crude-reality-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-having-a-big-effect-20230111-p5cbqd.html).
Yeah cheers - well if shit can get pre covid cheap, what does that mean for demand on other commodities.
Someone cut in with a "cool story bro" when the story was partway through and it was just too awkward for anyone to continue
Was prob Greta
I'm either too late or too early on stocks, is this my superpower?
I'm diversed (Only in minerals).
I've got iron and gold, very different, very diversified.
nah you have a "strategy"
My stocks are well fucked. I could really use a few green days in low volume biotech land
Took one for the boys and just bought more MAY so it will go down so you guys can get in cheaper š©
Should have an arvo run
Even PLS cant undo my IXR hurt š
what about now?
Ooooh well that improves my day!
i'm going to punch timbo in the throat.
The only deadline he understands is when the cokeās all gone
I feel i would join that conga lineā¦..
He's too busy on the hookers and blow, needs to sort out the studies asap
I think this sub got [big swinging dicks](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/10jqgo4/united_states_ranks_60th_in_the_world_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) all wrong
MAY up 9% on the day atm was 14% at one point and this announcement was just saying permits are done / a timetable. Imagine the pump in 4-6 weeks time if the appraisal goes well š„ It's either a lambo or mi Goreng about to turn into its either a double storey house and lambo or mi Goreng š
May Goreng
spicy stonk, that's for sure.
I think confirming no delays in approvals and permits or materials is the main thing. This will now spud in March with very little able to get in the way. Always buy 6-8 weeks prior to any significant so Iād expect the slow climb to come back in the next couple weeks
Yeah, the rule of small caps: the more it goes up now the more it must go up later.
I feel like there might be a counterpoint to this statementā¦ no, no thatās 100% correct š
Another green day Portfolio 6% up (overall not today) wishing i got more PLS at $4
Whatās your exit strat? Have a price in mind? Iām going to take a wild guess and say $12
It breaks my heart how anaemic the XJO is. What happened to them 1.5% rises?
Have you bought EXR yet?
Where my 40% from when u/ASXPuntingmuppet visited you at Wendy's?
... i don't like being monitored at work š
Whatās everyoneās entry and exit plan for RNU?
will sell some if it reaches ATH again. then buy back some more once it drops back a bit.
Hi 30s to low 40s as thatās gonna be $800/900 million MC. Love to see it get to $1 billion but the graphite crunch doesnāt seem as hot as the lithium one.
Will consider exiting above 60c but most likely hold until $1
As a previous holder during the 20-30c rise at the end of last year, Iām still interested but not looking to buy at these prices. It seems to rise pretty dramatically in the weeks prior to a key announcement so catching that uptrend would be the play I think. Iām not keeping up to date with announcements, but it doesnāt look like it wants to break 30c atm, so buying at 27c doesnāt present much upside, especially noting how quickly the price has dropped in the past. Just my 2c.
RNUās hasnt had a major update for a while. I expect the next positive one should pass the 30c mark
Agree, but my point is that if a major (and hopefully positive) update isnāt expected soon, it could equally fall back to 20-25c, which is when Iād be interested to buy back in.
Finally sold QAN. My first ever share purchase. Felt sad to say goodbye but if i've learnt anything over 2 years is that you cannot get attaches to a stock if you want to make profit
The idea of putting down my XST makes me feel sick.. sure, it's not living a good life - but it seems comfortable at least
You sure it's not the drinking beer from a fish that is making you feel sick?
I had a terrible headache within an hour of that. I blame being a redhead out in the sun more than the fish.
Just got to Melbourne, what a lovely little MAY ann to arrive to. Portfolio nearly break even now, only -4.8%
I impulse buy MGH (Maas Group Holdings), Small Cap, construction, mostly civil i think, but not big project manager, tyring to be vertically integrated, expected growth, GS buy recommendation (70% upside)
How late am I to the SYA party? Or is there still some juice
SYA's market cap makes the least IMO considering their near-term production profit is going to be hampered by their PLL deal. That said, they are expansionists and long term are looking to grow mining and their plant, so I view it as a more speculative play and if you get in cheap I like it long term for that. The Moblan PFS is probably a sell the news play, but SYA has a massive cult following so there's a few fundamentals that probably don't track. I stupidly sold out my tiny parcel at 23c after its recovery from 17c for basically breakeven, because it had done nothing for so long, there were a bunch of shorts just like CXO and was still around that 22c... I really was just impatient and outsmarted myself... ugh
Traders frequently abandon projects as they move into production, because they inevitably go through teething issues. CXO is a classic example, with their DMS plant being pushed back up to 6 months (and that's quite a simple beneficiation process compared to most projects). Interestingly, the market hasn't been perturbed by AGY's slowness, so that may be due to the 10ktpa permit/funding catalyst. Luckily, SYA's plant is already built (just being refurbished), so the big risk is probably bad recovery rates (output), poor initial grades, delays, etc. Without ore from Authier, the recovery rates at NAL may be terrible, a *problem which may not become apparent until the first quarterly, fortunately*. Ideally, they'll commission in April, so they don't need to release any of that potentially negative info during in the March quarterly. IMO, it'd be ideal if SYA isn't valued as a producer, because they'll struggle to make more than \~AU$25m NPAT this year. First shipment targeted for July (takes a bit to ramp up). You don't want them operating on P/E ratios experienced by PLS & AKE. Catalysts: * Moblan PFS due June quarter * Moblan DFS due Dec quarter * Authier BAPE due Dec quarter or later * Moblan drill results? * left field financial support from the CAN govt? * other debt funding? It was a great trade from 17c to 25c recently, but you can see the issue facing them is that all significant catalysts are due after commissioning. You'll need to weigh the risks of holding into production versus those catalysts.
Appreciate the semi DD, consider me semi educated
Can you explain what āteething issuesā are for the layman
Spodumene processing is much harder than products like iron ore and coal. Some issues: * recovery rates way lower than test work suggested * spodumene grade lower than test work * costs much higher than studies predicted * impurities * tweaks that require parts of plant to shut down I'd need to go back through announcements, but from memory it took PLS 6 months to get their refurbed Ngungaju plant firing due to the flotation challenges, despite all their expertise. NAL includes flotation. Mr\_X2017 did a great post a few months ago outlining PLS's path into production a number of years ago, but I forgot to bookmark it (begins around June 2018). AJM's test work said they'd recover 80%, and they only achieved 65% in actuality.
SYA report up to 100k tpa of Li hydroxide. Taking into account the likelihood of challenges to scale up production like PLS et al, even at 70% of forecast, that roughly equates to $5B+ at current LiOH price. Also applying similar production costs of their competitors, I think the MC is under valued. The unknown is the timeframe obviously. Or am I just fully ReGaRdEd?
The good news is that it looks like PLL will commit to SYA's goal of LCE from 2026 or later. Carbonate is looking the safer option. So from La Corne (NAL), SYA hope to generate 135,000tpa of 6% spod (75% ownership). That roughly equates to 18,000tpa of LCE. From Moblan, SYA aims for 120,000tpa of spod (60% ownership), which is roughly 16,000tpa of LCE. Might be achievable by 2029 depending on funding? Overall, SYA *current* ambition is 34ktpa of lithium hydroxide/carbonate by the end of the decade. Would need no less than AU$1.2b of funding, preferably debt. So assuming the entire LCE production of SYA was running smoothly in time for full output in 2030, and LCE price was US$25k/t, they'd tentatively make about AU$400-450m NPAT. Using a P/E of 15 for a chemicals processing company, puts them at a valuation of \~AU$6b by 2030. That's a compounding gain of approximately 17% pa, assuming everything was funded from debt, rather than dilution. I think the index achieves an average of \~9% pa once dividends are factored in. Of course, the price of lithium will vary that outcome massively.
Next level.. š¤
There's plenty of juice in her yet! Production in 30 odd days and Moblan DFS should be out soon?
Moblan and surrounds is what I'm waiting for. With the amount of land they've accumulated north, their southern hub will be completely dwarfed.
Yeah, can't wait to see the DFS. Will hopefully give the SP a few rockets!!!
PMT - Finally on the rise . Ex PLS CEO with a big Lithium find in Canada , same quality as the PLS one
What are the down votes about?
~1B MC for an explorer
Hmmm good point I missed that
Well over $1B. It's gotta be close to $1.4-1.5B. huge deposit though with good metallurgy. Macquarie think 136Mt just on CV5 alone. So realistically 5 years down the track they could be sitting on 300-400Mt - which would rival the biggest deposits in Australia. Environmental approvals are the biggest risk, outside of valuation side, even ignoring the lakes. Canada is notoriously slow and tough on explorers (both bad and good).
Nice summary Josh
Who have you upset? Maybe I'm missing something
Thatās what I am wondering ā¦